Happy Birthday President Clinton – Donations Welcome


I have NEVER seen any former president send out this type of solicitation. If you have any spare change, donations are always welcome – in the millions please!

Electric Cars or Else – Says Brussels by 2020


From 2020, European carmakers MUST  comply with stricter EU regulations. On average, only 95 grams of CO2 emissions per kilometer drove are permitted per car produced. If the output is higher than that, there will be drastic fines due. The leader seems to be BMW. I bought an I8 myself which is a hybrid so it has also a gas engine in the rear but electric in the front. You really can’t beat electric for speed off the line. It will really pin you back in the seat. I must say, being a sports car advocate, it is one of the best cars I have ever owned and a love it. (I do not own BMW stock).

Nevertheless, German companies are finding these requirements are unreasonable to meet 95 grams of CO2 emissions. That means the consumption of fuel must be around four liters per 100 kilometers. That is a very major objective imposed by this theory of Global Warming. The market for electric cars is really confined to Europe for regulation purposes, but the number one market is China where electricity prices are the lowest.

There are no combustion cars that comply with the European standard. German carmakers to produce sedans, but they cannot avoid building cars that consume more than four liters of fuel on average and therefore they cannot meet these higher CO2 emissions standards of 95 grams per kilometer.

Clearly, European car manufacturers have no choice but to produce electric cars. The fine per car that does not meet the standard will be around 13,o00 to 11,000 euros. Every German car maker will face hundreds of millions of euros in fines. The problem that the government has completely FAILED to take into consideration is the availability of electricity to fuel cars. Many are starting to look at the problem that even assuming cars can be plugged in, the demand for electricity may exceed the capacity to produce it.

The installation of an electric power station at every parking lot will be expensive, to begin with. However, if every car is plugged into the power grid, then the concern becomes will we simply shift the CO2 emissions from cars to power plants? The only way to avoid that is to create more nuclear power plants, and then we have many environmentalists objecting to that solution.

Of course, the world can go back to bicycles. Amsterdam has so many people commuting on bikes, it is astonishing. There are parking garages at the train station where people leave their bikes overnight and commute home by train. Here is a picture of a parking lot for bikes in Amsterdam. You will never see this anywhere else. Of course, back in the 1980s to early 1990s, there were still more bikes on the road in Beijing than there were cars. That has now changed dramatically as well.

Bikes are certainly a solution, but it has its limitations for age and disabilities. Then there is weather as well, which conspires against the commuter using bikes

IMF Criticizes Germany for its Chronic Trade Surplus?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I know you say you do not advise the IMF. But whatever you write, they follow and repeat. So they are following your blog at least and they implement whatever you say. This is very curious. They are now saying that Germany’s export model economy is threatening the world economy. You were the first to even differentiate domestic compared to export model economies. Do you care to restate that you do not advise the IMF?

GP

ANSWER: I do not deny that probably every government is reading this blog. That is the way it goes. They have realized that we not merely advise institutions, but we also report on trends that are not the subject matter of mainstream media. That said, we DO NOT HAVE any consulting agreement with the IMF. I have met personally with IMF board members. Yet keep in mind that does not mean that boards are unanimous in their decisions or beliefs.

What you are referring to is the IMF’s chief economist Maurice Obstfeld, who pointed out writing in the newspaper Die Welt (The World), further expansion of the German trade surplus would put financial stability at risk. He wrote that Germany’s continuing high trade surpluses are making Germany responsible for the increased crisis risks for the global economy with respect to trade disputes. He has also stated that there are no immediate threats to excessive trade imbalances in Germany. What he is talking about is with respect to global trade imbalances are promoting protectionist tendencies.

Keep in mind that everyone looks at the Current Account. I have stated numerous times that the Current Account also includes investment in buying government debt. The German Current Account surplus is now declining. Much of this was being driven by the internal capital flows within Europe moving to Germany as a hedge against the collapse of the Euro where the trade became the assumption that they would end up with Deutschemarks when the Euro collapsed.

Germany’s Current Account surplus peaked in 2015 at 8.9% of economic output. Last year it was still at the 8% level. The IMF classifies this 8% level as risky. This is by no means a sign that the Germany economy is booming. Actually, it has been the currency that has accounted for more shifts in manufacture than anyone would guess. The rise in the Euro from 82 cents to $1.60 between 2000 and 2008 was significant. By 2017, The German car manufacturer BMW actually produced 1.98 million passenger cars and light trucks built in the United States and were exported from there in the USA – not Germany. If we look at the dollar value of BMW exports from the USA, this accounted for $57.04 billion of U.S. international trade. BMW has actually become the largest manufacturer component that is being produced in the United States – not Germany.

Donald Trump has criticized Germany for its high trade surpluses. The USA is Germany’s largest export market. The current account includes the exchange of goods and services between states as well as the movement of capital. I have stated before that if we allocate trade according to the flag the company flies, then the USA has over a $2 trillion trade surplus. Are the BMWs exported from the USA German or American trade? They are creating American jobs, but the cars say BMW and people think they are imported.

Germany is using an old world mercantilist philosophy and assumes that an export-driven economy is THE number one objective. This is why German politicians were in favor of the Euro. It was Helmut Kohl who really pushed for the Euro to eliminate the FOREX risk to increase German exports. The IMF is repeating perhaps my observations of the Domestic v Export model economies. The shift to this focus seems to be driven by the trade dispute and negotiations with Trump. I am not so sure they are actually going as deep as I have with respect to the economic structure of economies. We all cannot have trade surpluses. Someone has to have a trade deficit. This is their focus whereby I and looking at the structured design. I am writing that for China to become the Financial Capital of the World, they MUST abandon the Export Model of Germany and shift to the Domestic Model to expand its economy that then supports the world as does the USA currently. Slight difference.

 

ECM & the Cycle Inversion?


The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. The entire world economy NEVER peaks and bottoms together. This latest turning point of July 12th, 2018 (2018.529) has apparently provided a MAJOR warning that we just could be moving into a major Cycle Inversion from the perspective of the United States. What does that mean? It means that the USA may be moving into a serious high in 2020 against a backdrop of a decline for the world insofar as liquid assets (non-fixed). The China share market has just lost its status as king of the mountain in Asia as Japan has once again reclaimed that lofty position from a value perspective.

The ONLY markets, currency and economy moving against this global bearish trend into 2020 has been the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Index broke out above the simple Downtrend Line, whereas we do not see this in Europe or Asia.

When we look at the array of world currencies, it is hard to mistake the fact that the dollar is rising. The ONLY other currency to benefit has been Canada. This is reflecting a shift in global capital flows to North America. Canada has been to some extent benefited by its proximity to the United States and has offered some diversification for European and Asian capital outflows.

When we look at the Canadian share market index (TSE), we can see that the July 12th turning point produced the highest closing during July. By the time we reach the World Economic Conference in Orlando on November 16-17, 2018 (Friday & Saturday), we will be approaching the Pi turning point on November 22/23rd, 2018 the next week. Besides the US mid-term elections, we are facing a very critical people in Europe. November is lining up to be an important turning point in the currencies. This is shaping up to ensure that the Orlando WEC event will be a hot topic this year and we hope to strategically set the stage for the balance of the ECM wave from there onward into 2020.

California tackles THE BIG ISSUES


Published on Aug 5, 2018

The electrical grid is inadequate. The roads are third-world. Public sector unions have bankrupted what was once the richest state in the nation. Thank God Cali has got its priorities straight

Is SO2 the Real Threat – not CO2?


It has snowed in Alberta, Canada on August 1st in the dead of summer. Such strange events like this have not been common. Europe is burning from heat when buildings do not even have air conditioning because they never needed it. The concern that we are headed into a volcanic weather event really needs our attention. Volcanos emit C02, but they are a major source of something far worse – SO2. We have all heard of the London Fog. However, in 1952, some 4,000 people in Britain died from breathing in the fog.

The London Fog of 1952 resulted from burning coal excessively because it was a bitterly cold winter. This produced sulfur dioxide in the lower atmosphere, which may have reached 7 times normal levels. This became the perfect storm. The air was stagnant and there no real wind. This combined with high humidity to create a very dense fog. Once the sulfur dioxide was trapped by the fog combining with the high humidity of water vapor, this deadly combination produced sulfuric acid, which many call today acid rain. Despite all the claims of CO2, it is really SO2 that can become lethal.

We have learned about SO2 and have been reducing human emissions since the London Fog of 1952. Despite the constant focus of cars and CO2, it is Power plants and motor vehicles that burn sulfur-containing fuels, especially diesel, that create SO2. It is the Sulfur dioxide that can react in the atmosphere to form fine particles of acrid rain that pose the largest health risks to the atmosphere. CO2 does not have the same effect. This is what the major movement has been for clean air – reducing SO2.

Volcanos emit a lot of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) which smells like rotten eggs. Humans also contribute by burning coal and other fossil fuels which are the largest source of sulfur dioxide from human activities. However, volcanoes and forest fires are THE major natural contributors. What is important to understand is that sulfur dioxide is a pollutant that does impact the climate. Once SO2 is in the atmosphere, it can easily form sulfate ions. These are negatively charged particles made of up of sulfur and oxygen atoms. Since they are negatively charged, sulfate ions combine with water vapor in the atmosphere and then form small droplets of sulfuric acid (H2SO4). You may hear of this as acid rain. CO2 does not act in this manner.

When a volcano erupts. we then see huge amounts of sulfur dioxide are released into the stratosphere which will then convert to sulfates. There is a qualification needed here because sulfates formed at lower altitudes are removed from the atmosphere in just a few weeks through settling and precipitation. However, the SO2 emission from volcanos reach the upper bounds of the atmosphere and create aerosols that are mainly tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that then stay in the atmosphere for about two years. These SO2 droplets reflect incoming solar radiation back into space yet absorb both incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. The net result, is simply that SO2 reduces the amount of energy reaching the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Hence, we get global cooling of the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface.

Consequently, it is the volcanic eruptions are of considerable impact on global climate and are a proven fact rather than theory as is the case with CO2. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, a cooling trend lasted through 1993. This was attributed to the sulfuric acid aerosols that persisted in the stratosphere. Historically, there was a global cooling which followed the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The worst such event was the “Year without a summer” which followed the eruption of Tambora in 1815.

The other school of thought has been where many scientists believe that the continuous emission of sulfates would counter any greenhouse gas theory of CO2. As volcanos tend to erupt when the energy output of the sun declines as has been taking place since 2015, we are experiencing uneven concentrations of sulfates around the world. This may be a major issue if turning places that are normally warm to cold and cold to warm. The problem with SO2 is that it remains in the atmosphere much longer and hence the continued trend of erupting volcanos can seriously alter the climate for even more than a decade ahead.