Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
We’re pleased to announce that the next World Economic Conference will be held in:
Orlando, Florida on November 21– 23, 2025
As many of you know, the WEC is not your typical financial conference. It’s where we bring together minds from around the world—investors, analysts, and policymakers—to explore how capital truly moves across borders, markets, and cycles. This is your chance to understand what Socrates sees ahead before the rest of the world catches up.
Tickets go on sale to the public on Tuesday, July 29.
These events typically sell out quickly, and with growing global demand and virtual attendance now available, we recommend acting early. Whether you’re attending in person or online, this year’s WEC promises crucial insight into where we stand on the Economic Confidence Model—and where we’re going.
Posted originally on Jul 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The globalists refuse to declare the migrant crisis an “invasion,” but we have history’s guidance to show us what happens when an unsustainable number of people enter a nation. The Goths, a non-military group considered migrants, are a perfect example. These men, women, and children sought refuge within the Roman Empire. This was not an invading army but rather a fleeing population seeking safety from the Huns. The Goths, long-time foes of the Romans, appealed to be admitted to Roman territory due to the threat they faced and needed to seek asylum. This event led to significant consequences and marked a turning point in the history of the Roman Empire.
The great Gothic migration involved hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children. While, to some degree, the growing unrest in the East pushed them southward, there is also little doubt that the border defenses of the Roman Empire had also been seriously weakened by the political instability and economic pressures that were building within Rome itself. Of course, the rumor of great plunder and riches available in Roman territory acted like a magnet much in the same way as the rumors of streets paved in gold in America prompted great European migrations during the 19th and early 20th centuries or the outdated stereotype of the American Dream.
By 238 AD, the Gothic position was so threatening to the Roman Empire that Emperor Maximinus was forced to pay them vast amounts of tribute, similar to how countries currently pay all expenses for migrants. While his aim may have been to buy time, this demonstrated weakness on the part of the Romans, who were still in the middle of internal political struggles for power. Internal imperial rivalries ultimately defeated Maximinis. Within less than four years thereafter, the Goths began a series of raids along the Danube.
A decade later and Philip I attempted to quell the influx of migrants, but died while battling his successor, Trajan Decius. Rome was simply decaying gradually from internal struggles, which weakened the economy and constantly pitted one legion against another in a struggle for power. We see internal struggles today throughout the West as politics continue to divide the people. The Romans did not consider the Goths to be a force that would threaten the entire Empire, but rather more as a barbarian force looking for plunder rather than power.
Trajanus Decius declared the Goths an enemy and attempted to force them out of the empire, only for the masses to return a year later. The Goths were prepared this time and formed several strategic alliances with enemies, such as the Dacian Carpi. This led to a full-scale invasion, and the Roman Empire suddenly found itself besieged as war raged on in Moesia, Dacia, and even in Thrace, while the main body of the Gothic invasion was preparing a descent into the region of the Black Sea.
After many battles, the Goths emerged as the new masters of the entire Danube territory, all the way to the Black Sea. Trebonianus Gallus emerged as the new Emperor who could do nothing to reverse the Empire’s humiliating defeat. The Goths now turned to Illyricum and Thrace, burning and plundering their way across the region. By 253 AD, the Goths set sail along the Black Sea, headed straight for Asia Minor, which was wide open and waiting to be plundered.
The Roman Empire was declining until Emperor Aurelian came to power and began restorative efforts, including anti-immigration policies. He not merely launched defensive measures, he moved on the offensive against the Goths and demolished them through a series of battles. The Goths were driven out of the Balkans and into Dacia. Aurelian also greatly restored the Black Sea defenses, which helped those regions rebuild their economies as well. However, Aurelian failed to pursue the barbarians into the Roman province of Dacia, pulling back and establishing the new border once again along the natural border as originally defined by Augustus – the Danube.
Aurelian’s decision to redraw the borders left Dacia in the hands of the Carpi and the Goths. Once the Goths were contained, they began to divide into two distinct groups – Ostrogothic and Visigothic kingdoms. These groups would evolve into powerful states that would ultimately bring down the Roman Empire in the West.
Those in favor of the Gothic migration stated that the newcomers would increase tax revenue and benefit the Roman economy. It was a humanitarian crisis and Rome’s responsibility to solve. Instead, the unsustainable influx of Gothic refugees contributed to the eventual fall of the Western Roman Empire. The event marked a turning point in Roman history and was part of a period in which the Roman Empire nearly collapsed under the combined pressures of invasion, civil war, plague, and economic depression. History always repeats.
Posted originally on Jul 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been focusing on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory, which marks a significant shift in humanity. While this may be true, as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.
The 80-year theory, also known as the Strauss–Howe generational theory, posits that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that culminate in a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864, the year of the US Civil War. Taking it back even further, we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.
Now, absolutely everything is connected, and garnering the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint, as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.
The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity, amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th. The next wave, 1878, saw the Long Depression, which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35, which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.
Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted profoundly, altering nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave is expected to be in 2032, and this will be followed by a shift in economic power from the West to the
Posted originally on Jul 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, your model on volcanoes had correctly forecast this surge in activity in the Ring of Fire for 2025. Do you view this as part of the warning that we are headed into global cooling, rather than warming? Why does the media refuse to highlight all the correct events your computer has been able to forecast when nobody else comes close?
AP
ANSWER: This has been my concern. Climate News just reported: “The Pacific Ring of Fire has witnessed an alarming surge in seismic activity throughout 2024 and early 2025.” I have tried to help society, but those who opposed me cannot even now admit that what they were doing was taking control of the computer by sheer force. I reported back in 2022 that the low would be in 2019, which was the point from which the activity would begin to rise. As you see, we have a string of Directional Changes into 2030. However, take a close look and you will see a Panic Cycle in 2031.
I’m sorry, these climate experts offer personal opinions. It takes an objective viewpoint to see what honestly lies ahead in this journey we call life. The media will never report on what Socrates has done. It would discredit everything they have been saying for years.
Posted originally on Jun 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, why is it that the press and academia are not beating down your doors when you are the only one who had forecasted a recession into 2028 years in advance? I can only assume that this is a deliberate conspiracy to prevent others from understanding that the world economy is not random and, as you say, it’s all a confidence game. Do you think this is a conspiracy against you, aimed at preventing you from educating society?
HL
ANSWER: Yes, it is a conspiracy insofar as they do not want people to see that the economy is ordered and not random chaos. Here is Larry Summers saying that if you could forecast the future, then it would be self-fulfilling, which is how they view me. I even had the Commodity Futures Trading Commission file a complaint against me, demanding that I turn over a list of all my clients. They told the court that I was manipulating the world economy, and if I turned over my client list, they could prove it. My lawyer asked the court where the statute was that said I could not manipulate the entire world right down to his salary. He agreed, laughed, and denied them their crazy subpoena.
What’s at stake here? You vote for a politician who promises to solve a problem that they cannot. Democrats cannot blame Trump’s tariffs if the economy is turning down with or without his tariff war. WE are headed into war as the computer forecast because these people are on the verge of collapse. They need war as a decoy to blame Putin, just as Biden blamed Putin for the rise in gasoline prices when it was Biden who imposed the sanctions, not Putin. They MUST go to war for 72 years of borrowing with no intention of paying anything back, is now bringing the entire financial system to a grinding halt. The people in Europe will be storming the Parliaments with pitchforks, for they have ordered that, on average, 70% of pension funds must hold “safe” government debt. A sovereign default wipes out private pensions.
I put out the ECM, and it forecasted a peak in May 2024, from which we would turn down into a recession that would not bottom until 2028. This is not my opinion so it cannot be my influence. Those against me claim I am too influential, and that is why the forecasts are correct. Otherwise, they have to admit everything from Politics to Keynesian Economics is wrong. It cannot be that they are wrong; it must be that I am the problem. Human Nature has a very dark side, and I’m tired of being their target practice.
I had a good conversation with Paul back in 1999. He told me I was correct. The business cycle was about 8 years. Even the previous Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, who presided over the collapse of Bretton Woods, concluded that the Business Cycle always wins. They have done everything they can to shut me up. I even survived the orchestrated attempt to assassinate me. I woke up from that coma to their dismay, and sometimes I wish I had not.
The entire sales pitch behind socialism is that you need government because ONLY they can bring ORDER to the CHAOS of randomness. As I have said, in physics class, they stated that nothing is random, and in economics class, they claimed that everything is random, so the government can manipulate society to eliminate recessions and depressions. But if the ECM is correct, then the BS they espouse cannot be accurate.
Posted originally on CTH on June 29, 2025 | Sundance
“Elbows up” and knees bent. As expected given the nature of their dependency, the Canadian government has rescinded the digital services tax against U.S. tech companies.
The June 30th collection is halted and the Canadian government led by Mark Carney will be bringing legislation to rescind the tax entirely.
CANADA – […] Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States. Consistent with this action, Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21, 2025.
The DST was announced in 2020 to address the fact that many large technology companies operating in Canada may not otherwise pay tax on revenues generated from Canadians. Canada’s preference has always been a multilateral agreement related to digital services taxation. While Canada was working with international partners, including the United States, on a multilateral agreement that would replace national digital services taxes, the DST was enacted to address the aforementioned taxation gap.
The June 30, 2025 collection will be halted, and Minister Champagne will soon bring forward legislation to rescind the Digital Services Tax Act. (LINK)
In the bigger picture Canada has a serious problem.
Canada is entirely dependent on the USA; there is no part of the Canadian economic system that can survive without total dependence on the USA. The Canadian economy is currently stagnant and their leftist government is desperate to find a way to collect revenue somehow, any way possible. Additionally, President Trump is going to end the USMCA trade agreement and shut down a majority of the benefits Canada has been extracting.
The most remarkable aspect to this reality is the denial within Canada. There are maybe a handful of honest Canadian economists, financial types and/or pundits who understand economic matters that are willing to outline and explain the details of Canada’s vulnerability…..
…. The rest are in denial, shouting ‘elbows up’ as if that is going to change the inevitable. The pretending is strong amid the snow Mexicans. Their denial is a mass formation psychosis. Stunningly so.
Posted originally on CTH on June 28, 2025 | Sundance
CTH has continually said that almost no one in Canada has any grasp of what is about to happen within their economy, specifically because only a handful of people realize what President Trump intends to do.
This interview with Kevin O’Leary is a case study in what I have been warning about. If you have any financial affiliation with O’Leary Ventures or ancillary investments that touch on a dependency therein, be forewarned.
O’Leary is only a few months away from exploding against President Trump in a manner that will make the Elon Musk statements about Epstein and Trump seem small by comparison. As yet another Canadian financial voice that just doesn’t get it, O’Leary has no idea the USMCA is about to end. And when it does, oh boy… he will go bananas.
Posted originally on Jun 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab stepped down from his chairman position at the organization on April 20, 2025, amid accusations of fraud. Our computer had forecast that the WEF would enter a declining trend with the 2024 ECM turning point. This staged coup happened about 37 years after the first Davos meeting (8.6 x 4.3). From our model’s perspective, this was right on time. Now, Schwab and the WEF are working to repair ties.
An anonymous whistleblower claimed that Klaus Schwab and his wife collaborated with USAID to steal tens of millions in funding. The whistleblower has always been anonymous, and it remains very suspicious that the very organization he created would turn on him after receiving an anonymous letter that they admitted may not have been credible. Something like this would never be acceptable in any court of law, especially if it’s anonymous. It would be the worst or the worst hearsay, where you cannot even point to who made the allegation.
Back in April, the WEF said its board unanimously supported the decision to initiate an independent investigation “following a whistleblower letter containing allegations against former Chairman Klaus Schwab. This decision was made after consultation with external legal counsel.”
Now, the WEF is attempting to repair its relationship with its founder ahead of the next Davos meeting. Bloomberg reported that the WEF would like to “normalize their relationship [with Klaus Schwab] in order to safeguard the forum and the legacy of the founder.”
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has replaced Schwab for the time being, but is less of a commanding force. Schwab’s sudden departure has caused instability in the organization and its ongoing mission. Board members are concerned that support for the organization will begin to decline as this situation remains unresolved.
The World Economic Forum’s annual revenue in 2024 was 440 million francs ($543 million), with the majority of proceeds coming from member companies and fees. Yet, the number of people registered to attend the 2025 Davos event is on par if not slightly exceeding the number of participants from the year prior.
Schwab’s departure has damaged the Davos brand. There is a possibility that the organization is attempted to rebrand after Agenda 2030 failed. The WEF attempted to move away from its zero tolerance stance on ESG initiatives after they became widely unpopular among the big industry players and shifting governments. The brand has attempted to integrate the importance of digital transformation and AI to remain relevant as the tech gurus grow in power and popularity. Those who are familiar with Klaus Schwab know the phrase, “You will own nothing and be happy.” These words have been widely unpopular and caused a type of sinister chaos to surround the brand that was once respected as the high-brow institution of globalist elites.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was slated to replace Schwab in 2027 when her term ends, and all reports claimed that he was prepared to remain in the chairman role for an additional two years to ensure Lagarde could take his place. What changed seemingly overnight that would cause the organization to discard Schwab before he was due to retire?
Schwab denies any misconduct and filed lawsuits against the whistleblowers, calling the accusations “calumnious” and “unfounded.” He believes “character assassination” was the premise of the claims.
I am no fan of Klaus Schwab, as everyone knows. I disagree with his theories from start to finish. Nevertheless, something doesn’t smell right here. This appears to be an internal coup, perhaps to distract attention from the question of alleged funds for the WEF from USAID, or to try to salvage the failed Agenda 2030. Perhaps they will claim that no misconduct had occurred since DOGE did not raise concerns or there is a possibility that those behind the internal coup are concerned that Schwab’s counter lawsuit could uncover new corruption. The investigation into Schwab has not concluded, but after only three months, the WEF would like to wrap it up. It appears that the WEF does not want to welcome Schwab back; rather, they would like to ensure an amicable resolution to maintain both the brand’s reputation as well as the founder’s.
Posted originally on Jun 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, you have shown that capital flows shift, and the computer has been able to predict wars by monitoring the entire world. The forecasts on Crude were unprecedented. I just had to remark how your computer handled this entire 12-day war and its cyclical forecast with your arrays. It is so apparent why so many want to know what Socrates is projecting. What you say that you stumbled on this unintentionally still deserves more than a Nobel Prize. While people sensationalize stories to get clicks, only Socrates handled this event correctly without fanfare.
Thank you for the education.
BB
REPLY: Yes, the Crude market did illustrate that the economics and markets were not matching the sensationalized reports. The May 5th turning point picked the low, then three Directional Changes created the sideways consolidation for three weeks. The Panic Cycle, the week of June 9th, targeted the breakout and the June 13th Israel attack of the three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development to decapitate the government. It did not show a continued trend.
This is the opening to one chapter. I am trying to finish the book on the Economic Confidence Model and the Geometry of Time. There is a specific order hidden behind the veil of randomness, and our most significant problem in history is that we conduct analysis using the Classical Physics approach of linear analysis, which reduces everything to a single cause and effect. That prevents us from seeing that the world around us functions within a three-dimensional world, and TIME is not a single dimension. Therein lies our most significant error. Our inability to see what dictates the world of Quantum Physics, which unfolds before our eyes, also applies to the world of Classical Physics, causing us to believe in randomness and chaos rather than a hidden order.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America