Posted originally on May 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
We know we are approaching a major high in Bitcoin when Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), a publicly traded media company controlled by the U.S. president’s family, announced a plan to purchase $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin on Tuesday. This is a warning that we are in the throes of a typical bubble that will not end nicely.
As a trader, you come to understand that every market, no matter what, acts the same because it is NOT the instrument, be it tulips, stocks, commodities, or bonds – it is human nature and the madness of crowds. A crash becomes inevitable when 97% of the people are all long and they run out of fresh buyers. Like the Russian collapse, because all the bankers were long and the hedge funds, then they tried to sell and discovered that they were the market. When they try to sell, the broker says there is NO BID! Bitcoin is a trading vehicle like everything else. It is no exception to the rules of markets. It is just the next Tulip or Dot.COM or AI craze.
I would NOT invest in Trump Media and Technology Group. It appears to be a brief rally, but this decision is misguided and emotional. They are risking the company on a speculation and are all caught up in the typical bubble, assuming the majority is correct. Why not convert your cash to yuan or euros when your expenses and revenue are in dollars? I can’t even recall the number of companies that came crawling to me for help after making the same risky FX trades.
The problem remains, the majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is why no market is ever exempt from the inevitable boom and bust cycle. This is also when it only takes a minority to bring down a government or a market.
Posted originally on CTH on May 27, 2025 | Sundance
I’m sorry, but when I finally got around to review the appearance of King Charles in the Canadian Parliament, I could not get past the optics on display.
My background thoughts are HERE, but boy howdy does this picture encapsulate the dynamic.
And yes, King Charles waxed eloquently in both French and English about the terrible issue that Canadian sovereignty is facing.
The same issue, albeit to a lesser -but increasing- extent, is the core impetus between U.S. President Trump’s manufacturing policies in the USA. President Trump is urgently attempting to rebuild a collapsed industrial manufacturing base. However, from the leftist position of Canada, the easier route that affords them the ability to chase the green energy rainbows is to retain a dependency manufacturing model. These are political decisions.
At the core of this dynamic you will find the reason why President Trump is likely to dissolve the U.S/Mex/Canada (USMCA) trade agreement and instead turn toward two independent bilateral trade agreements between the USA-Mexico and USA-Canada. Extend this reasonably accurate predictive economic reality to its logical conclusion and you see why the U.K wants to help bolster Canada.
In the battle against President Trump’s economic ferocity, Canada is relying on the friendly, duplicitous and influential mask work by Great Britain.
Posted originally on CTH on May 26, 2025 | Sundance
King Charles is arriving in Canada today in advance of an opening speech he will deliver to the Canadian Parliament. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney invited King Charles to attend, and while the media portray the visit as mostly symbolic there is no doubt the substantive issue for Canada is the economic dependency on the USA and how the U.K can bolster the position of Canada against that threat.
Everything is always about the money of the thing, this dynamic between the U.K and Canada is no different. What we would call the ‘western’ global financial system is contingent upon all U.S. allies retaining the United States as their consumer base and stable currency center. President Trump has exposed the vulnerability of Canada as he confronts the parasitic relationship {GO DEEP}.
In advance of the U.K positioning itself as the skirt behind which Canada can hide from the horrible Trump, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer extended an invitation for President Trump to attend a state visit in his honor later this year. The effusive praise from Starmer during the White House meeting was keenly strategic, so too was their urgency in creating the first new-era free trade agreement with the USA.
Perhaps President Trump’s embrace of Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia should be viewed through this financial prism where the EU, U.K and Canada will ultimately go to war (together) against the efforts of President Trump. Within the partnership of the UK, EU and Canada, the Snow Mexicans are the weakest link, the most vulnerable to collapse from Trump’s economic policy.
Canada no longer has any substantive ability to create heavy machinery industrial goods. Most of the Canadian manufacturing equipment is imported from China and the EU.
The same issue, albeit to a lesser -but increasing- extent, is the core impetus between U.S. President Trump’s manufacturing policies in the USA. President Trump is urgently attempting to rebuild a collapsed industrial manufacturing base. However, from the leftist position of Canada, the easier route that affords them the ability to chase the green energy rainbows is to retain a dependency manufacturing model. These are political decisions.
At the core of this dynamic you will find the reason why President Trump is likely to dissolve the U.S/Mex/Canada (USMCA) trade agreement and instead turn toward two independent bilateral trade agreements between the USA-Mexico and USA-Canada. Extend this reasonably accurate predictive economic reality to its logical conclusion and you see why the U.K wants to help bolster Canada.
In the battle against President Trump’s economic ferocity, Canada is relying on the friendly, duplicitous and influential mask work by Great Britain.
LONDON/OTTAWA (Reuters) – King Charles flies to Canada on Monday for a highly symbolic visit showing support for the nation that recognizes him as its sovereign but is coveted by U.S. President Donald Trump as a 51st U.S. state.
Following an invitation from Prime Minister Mark Carney, Charles will open parliament in Ottawa on Tuesday, the first time a British monarch has carried out the duty since his mother, the late Queen Elizabeth, did so 68 years ago.
Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to annex Canada, a proposition fiercely rebuffed by Carney whose election win last month came partly on the back of that stance.
“The prime minister has made it clear that Canada is not for sale now, is not for sale ever,” Canada’s envoy to the UK, Ralph Goodale, told reporters during a visit last week by Charles to Canada’s high commission.
“The king, as head of state, will reinforce the power and the strength of that message.”
Charles has made subtle signals of his backing for Canada in recent months, wearing Canadian medals, calling himself the king of Canada, and describing its flag as “a symbol that never fails to elicit a sense of pride and admiration”. (read more)
Remember, the core of the thing is money.
What does that mean?
Well, in addition to the zero-sum mindset of the Canadian and British governments, it also means both Republicans and Democrats in congress will fight President Trump with extreme prejudice.
If you want to see a Republican fight, start to threaten their financial status and suddenly all those spineless Republicans will attack the disruption with a ferocity that could fuel ten-thousand Dragon-X launches. If you doubt that truism, go back and look at the Republican support for President Obama weaponizing the IRS against the Tea Party. If you still doubt that truism, look around right now at how hard the Republicans are fighting to retain the Ukraine laundry operation.
There is no such thing as a “Republican ideology,” it is always about the money.
The UniParty is two wings of the same bird, a vulture.
Republicans will soon profess their undying love for a free and sovereign Canada, and if President Trump doesn’t return the effusive praise for King Charles things will get ugly.
If President Trump walks through the firestorm of the influence campaign and exits to the other side still intending to demand trade reciprocity -using tariffs to deliver it- he will be as isolated from the Republican party apparatus as MAGA voters are.
Posted originally on May 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: What is your view of Frank Knight’s view of risk versus uncertainty?
HL
ANSWER: Frank Knight, an influential economist and founder of the Chicago School from which Milton Friedman emerged. He is known for his work on risk and uncertainty, and he articulated a key distinction between the two concepts in his 1921 book “Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit”. The widely cited quote is:
“Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term ‘risk,’ as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different.”
Knight argued that risk refers to situations where outcomes are unknown but probabilities can be calculated (e.g., gambling or insurance), making it measurable and manageable. On the other hand, uncertainty describes scenarios where probabilities cannot be determined due to a lack of historical data or predictable patterns (e.g., unprecedented market shifts). This distinction underpins his theory of profit, where entrepreneurs bear uncertainty (not mere risk) as a source of potential economic reward.
This framework remains foundational in economics and decision-making theory, emphasizing the role of unquantifiable unknowns in shaping entrepreneurial behavior and market dynamics. I, being a trader rather than an academic, however, disagree insofar as nothing is truly UNCERTAIN. The problem with classical economists is that they have not explored ancient history, assuming the data is inconsistent or nonexistent. Then this view is compounded by the idea that the economy is random, and we can manage it, which was first presented by Karl Marx.
I have said many times that when I was in school, in economics class, they said it was random, and this government can smooth out the booms and busts under Keynesian Economics to prevent another Great Depression. Then I went to Physics class and was told that NOTHING is random. I concluded that someone was lying, and it was the economists. They refused to investigate the business cycle and presumed they could manage it.
Anyone who had actual experience disagreed with the classic economists. Arthur Burns was the Fed Chairman when Bretton Woods broke. He concluded that the business cycle existed and always won. Then there was Paul Volcker, the next Fed Chairman. Paul also came to the same conclusion that the business cycle existed despite the classic economic theories.
I had a conversation with Paul Vocker, who told me my Economic Confidence Model was correct and agreed that the business cycle was about 8 years. This flies in the face of classical economists.
I knew that Roman coins were attainable. I bought my first one for $10 in the 1960s. When they removed the silver from the coinage in 1865, I saw the connection to the very same event that marked the start of the Third Century Crisis.
When I assembled the coinage to answer a gnawing question: How did Rome fall? Was it like a 747 coming in for a landing gradually, or was it abrupt? I discovered it fell from 50 %+ silver to 0.2% in just 8 years.
I discovered no such thing as random walks down the street. That is put out by people who cannot see the cycles before their eyes. Turn the economy down, and politics will always flip, no matter who is in power. The EU is fighting to stay alive, so they are interfering in elections to defeat anyone who is anti-EU. This will only blow up in their faces. The economy will always force a response, and human nature has never changed in 6,000 years. Whoever is in power will always respond similarly to the same old economic pressure.
Read Hammurabi’s Legal Code. It is wage and price controls in response to an economic crisis. Even the Bible outlawed socialism. Attacking the rich and class warfare has been a problem since ancient times and it has always resulted in the collapse of such economies. Nothing has changed – ever. So, where is the UNCERTAINTY?
This is perhaps one of the most fascinating reports I have ever written. This was inspired by my invitation to speak in Alberta concerning their movement to separate from Canada. A few propose being the 51st State, but the more practical move would be to become a sovereign state on their own, which I lay out in the proposal that would rock the entire world and propel Alberta to a leader among nations.
But what is far more critical is that I have gathered historical separation events to take the best from that and what to avoid. However, in the process, such separations and revolutions have ALWAYS taken place with the minority and not the majority. The average number of what percent of the population is required to pull off a separation or revolution is LESS THAN 15%!!!!!
Pulling together this research blew my mind. This goes against what most would expect. It also shows how this process has unfolded; not all are violent. As you can see, the significant events like the American Revolution, the French Revolution, and the 1917 Russian Revolution are included. In these events, I have focused on the percentage of the population it took to achieve the result. I have included the ancient revolution, including the Roman-Judaea War, and the shocking realization that the Zealots were a tiny fraction of the Jewish population.
This Report will shock you as it did me.
It is Reasonably Priced at $19.95 and comes out to 314 pages, fully illustrated.
Posted originally on CTH on May 20, 2025 | Sundance
… And Director Gabbard may not know they exist.
If you have followed the construct of the Trump-Russia collusion story, you are likely outraged that accountability has not followed. There’s a very frustrating reason for that and I will explain how two distinctly different issues are being conflated. Separating them is the key.
The first issue is the FBI’s illegal surveillance of presidential candidates’, including candidate Donald Trump. The second issue is the Clinton campaign inspired Russia-Collusion story, that led to Crossfire Hurricane, colloquially known as “Russiagate.” All investigative emphasis, including John Durham, has been on the latter which takes you into a DC silo construct where all tentacles lead to dead ends and inaction.
Russiagate was a Clinton-inspired political smear campaign that was given the patina of credibility by the FBI opening the investigation called “Crossfire Hurricane.” If you focus on that storyline, you end up with zero accountability and endless talk that goes nowhere.
However, if President Trump and DNI Tulsi Gabbard reveal the first element, the FBI’s illegal surveillance of candidate Donald Trump, that path has a physical trail and documents that cannot be deflected by political obfuscation.
♦THE FBI SURVEILLANCE – The original agreement between Clinton and Obama going back to 2008 was for Obama to take the nomination, the presidency and then eventually support Hillary Clinton’s 2016 election bid.
Obama would be President. Obama would appoint Clinton to Secretary of State, Hillary would then use her office to build wealth for herself and her family, and then HRC would exit the Dept of State to begin her presidential run.
John Podesta would enter the Obama administration as Hillary left (post Benghazi mess) in 2013. Podesta would look out for Hillary’s interests from his position inside the Obama White House. The Clintons and Obamas never fully trusted each other.
Barack Obama would put all the mechanisms into place that would transition his administration into Hillary Clintons’. That was always the plan running in the background.
In 2015 Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama had a check-in meeting; just touching base to firm up the goals and objectives as Hillary began her campaign launch. Podesta then left the White House to take up position inside the campaign, and Obama would maintain Clinton’s interests as planned without a monitor.
All of President Obama’s appointments in/after 2015, were essentially through the prism of assisting Hillary Clinton to win in 2016. Attorney General Loretta Lynch (tarmac meeting), Deputy AG Sally Yates, Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe and FBI Director James Comey were all part of that.
This is a key point missed by many. In the last two years of Obama, the cabinet and top-tier members of the administration would align their institutional interests to that of Hillary Clinton.
Technically Hillary had eyes and ears all over the White House at the time, and with Hillary Clinton being a foregone conclusion per the expectations of Washington DC, everyone would fall in line during the transition from Obama to Clinton.
Again, this was the general plan. Obama would show up in 2016 to campaign for Hillary and all would be seamless.
The FBI was aware of the plan for transition from Obama to Clinton. Hence, the FBI role in eliminating the threat later presented by the Hillary Clinton laptop scandal, private servers and the subsequent issues of her receiving and transmitting classified information.
Remember, Clinton’s motive as Secretary of State was to sell her position for material wealth. That’s why she used a personal email, maintained her own servers, and generally controlled how her activity could be monitored and tracked. [Also, she didn’t fully trust Obama]
The FBI activity was to support, defend and facilitate the Clinton effort. This is again a key to understanding “Russiagate.”
After March 2016 (Super Tuesday) it became obvious Donald Trump was going to win the Republican nomination. Trump would be Clinton’s opponent.
♦The surveillance – Using access to the NSA database, the U.S. Govt., specifically “FBI Contractors”, began doing political surveillance of Donald Trump’s campaign. This intel was then sent to the Clinton team. Clinton would benefit from knowing the communication inside the Trump campaign. All of that intel was in the metadata captured by the NSA and searched by the FBI contractors.
All of this activity was political surveillance, using govt resources to feed the Clinton team the info.
♦”RUSSIAGATE” – When the Clinton campaign launched the Russia Collusion dirty trick move against her opponent Donald Trump, originally using Fusion GPS and Glenn Simpson, the role of the Obama administration was to facilitate the political hit, and at the very least not impede it. Hence, former CIA Director John Brennan briefing Barack Obama on the status of the Russia collusion hoax as it spread in 2016 via the Clinton campaign.
However, as a result of the circle of information, Obama had a problem. The sourcing of the intel could trace to the illegal FBI surveillance of the NSA database. That’s why they needed a plausible shift within the surveillance. That’s where the Carter Page FISA comes in.
Specifically because President Obama was, by extension, now a participant in the Clinton created “Russia Collusion hoax,” and specifically because his administration officials were participants in the process (DOJ, FBI), when President Trump won the 2016 election President Barack Obama was now exposed by the threat the operation represented. This context is the impetus for the January 5, 2017, meeting and subsequent Susan Rice memo.
Following the surprising result in the 2016 election, the team around Obama was constructing plausible deniability.
President Obama did not orchestrate the Russia Collusion hoax; he facilitated it by not interfering with his administration officials who were assisting Hillary Clinton. This is a key distinction.
President Obama knew what was going on and he was willfully blind as it was carried out. However, the mess and fallout from the effort his FBI and DOJ officials put into assisting Hillary Clinton eventually represented a threat to President Obama.
With an assist from pressuring allies in the legislative branch, Robert Mueller and all 19 of his Clinton-aligned Lawfare operatives were put into place to cover-up the mess created within the Russia Collusion operation. Mueller +19 Lawfare embeds continued the Crossfire Hurricane operation, while the extreme Lawfare strategy was deployed against the Trump administration.
That’s the short, encapsulated version.
The Russia Collusion hoax was created by Hillary Clinton, spread to media through Fusion GPS and given the patina of credibility by the DOJ and FBI. President Obama facilitated the operation by not interfering in it, until it became a threat to him personally.
Both the Obama and Clinton political teams supported and organized the Robert Mueller cover-up. All of this activity is because Hillary Clinton was supposed to win.
♦ Awakening the public. Among the information President Donald Trump has requested for declassification, there are two important document sets being overlooked.
#1 is the 2017 99-page opinion of FISA Court presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer covering 2016 FBI Contractor abuse of the NSA database. Tulsi Gabbard needs to get the unredacted version, read it and declassify it. [Yes, revealing the names of the actual FBI contractors]
#2 are the NSA “audit logs” which were preserved by NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers, as outlined in his testimony. Where does NSA store their audit logs?
Both document trails outline the FBI conducting political surveillance of the 2016 Republican Presidental nominee, Donald Trump.
This is the originating data that follows a parallel path in the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation.
Both paths, (1) the FBI illegal political surveillance, and (2) the Clinton campaign Russia Collusion/Crossfire Hurricane investigation, intersect at the Carter Page FISA warrant, and merge together. However,it is important to see them as two distinctly different paths.
The illegal surveillance path was made legal retroactively by the FISA Warrant against Carter Page.
Investigating ‘Russiagate‘, as dirty and unseemly as it was, takes you to a place where politics infected the DOJ/FBI and every participant carries plausible deniability. However, investigate the 2016 illegal surveillance of Donald Trump’s campaign via the NSA database and all of that activity cannot be justified.
Focus on the FBI surveillance of the GOP in 2016, by focusing on how they exploited the NSA database.
As to the Audit Logs preserved by Director Rogers, there are two strong likelihoods:
#1) I suspect one of the workstations involved in the database searches will be identified as an FBI workstation in the DC Law Office of Perkins Coie.
#2) I suspect one of the workstations involved in the database searches will be located in the office of Samantha Power at the State Department; with a user id login designated to Power (but she may not have physically logged in).
Both #1 and #2 above are directly connected to Hillary Clinton. #1 was her campaign law firm, and #2 was her former office.
Bottom line. The FBI was conducting illegal political surveillance and funneling the results to the Clinton campaign. There is a document trail directly to this activity, and audit logs showing exactly who was doing it.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 