IMF Warns Their Forecast Was Wrong


COMMENT: It really does appear that the IMF is following you and repeating your forecasts. They first said the world economy was booming at the start of the year for the next several years. Now they have revised that forecast and saying we are at risk of a decline. Any comment?

HK

ANSWER: Yes, at the start of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was very bullish. The world economy’s “broad-based momentum” was their call which produced an upgrade to its forecasts for global growth over the next few years. Now, they have admitted that they were “over-optimistic” and they have cut its projections down to where they were last year. They are warning that “the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen.” What they have completely failed to take into consideration is the economic meltdown in Emerging Markets coupled with the failure of Europe as a whole under the EU

The US Share Market – Dow Closes at 25,052.83


US stocks have plunged this week from the high of the week of 10/01 which has been the biggest rout since February. Meanwhile, investors remain jittery, to put it mildly, and confused as people try to attach a fundamental reason for the decline mixing in the recent jump in interest rates and the potential harm tariffs could cause tech companies. But our sources overseas are more concerned about politics. The Democrats are vowing to raise taxes and lower health care costs which they created in the first place.

The NASDAQ peaked in August and our model had called for an August high would be followed by a low into this period. So nothing unusual has transpired other than foreign buyers have backed off concerned about what happens if the Democrats take the House. The S&P500 peaks in September and the Dow peaked in October with the dollar illustrating once again the international capital flows are different from domestic.

The interest rates have been rising since the 4th quarter of 2015. To suddenly claim that is the reason for the decline merely reflects the problem that they need to point to something to explain a move that cannot be attributed to anything but the political uncertainty on the horizon.

We will update Tonight on the Private Blog with the specific numbers.

When the Market Crashes The Scenarios Make No Sense


Interest Rates have been on the rise since 2015.75 4th quarter. All of a sudden, the headlines claim U.S. stocks took a dump to close sharply lower because investors spooked by rising bond yields sold equities in all sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) fell 315.97 points, or 4.1%, to 7,422.05, its biggest decline of 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 800 points and the S&P 500 had its worst day since February as technology stocks went into a freefall.

This really begs the question – Did everyone suddenly notice interest rates? No, the market peak on the target week in the Array of 10/01 so it is simply all about the market getting tired. The vast majority are bearish and the most fascinating thing is what happened to the Flight to Quality? Normally, the stock market crashes and you run to bonds. But if the stock market is crashing and bonds are crashing, is this a completely new type of flight?

We will be providing an update tonight on the private blog.

Interest Rates & the Long-Broad Trend


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I cannot tell you how much I respect your work and your computer. It is so obvious that you have been correct on every market. Even last year at the WEC you warned that interest rates would continue to rise and the stock market would not Crash and Burn. My hat is off to you. My question is we are approaching that number —— you gave at the WEC for the breakout in interest rates. We should expect rates to rise despite the fact that Trump has said the Fed is raising rates too fast?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

UT

ANSWER: Everything is connected. You push on one domino and its forces all the others to fall in their time and place. This is the difference between a domestic analyst who forecasts based upon his opinion and a global perspective that is shaped by trends.

Treasury 10-year yields rose the most since February as stronger US economic data added to the case for reduced stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve. Trump’s tax breaks, despite what the Democrats say, are the reason behind the strength in the economy. In fact, a correlation of tax decreases with economic activity increases in growth is 100% spot on. Raise taxes and people have less to spend and then economic growth declines. It does not take a Nobel Prize to figure that one out.

Emerging-market stocks have tumbled 4.5% in the five days last week, which was their worst performance since February. The dollar has rallied despite everyone saying it was crash. Let me make this perfectly clear: The dollar’s rally will continue overall. The Fed will continue its policy of gradual interest-rate increases at least through the end of 2019 and probably into 2020. Meanwhile, the rise in US rates will FIRST cause tremendous problems in Emerging Markets and then in Europe, followed by Japan. There is no getting away from this trend.

Is the Greatest Trade on the Century Knocking on the Door Yet?


QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong
I have been following you now for a couple of years, since the movie the forcaster, it showed me exactly whats is happening in the world and how little I know about finaces and trading. I am a blue collar worker in Canada with a small pension, how can I or where should I go to learn how to trade? Better yet how to use Socrates or someone who can help me or invest for me?
Your work has opened my eyes and also scares the hell out of me for what is coming.
Please can you help me and the other little guys who not as educated?
Thank you

ANSWER: What you want is not to short-term TRADE but to be a position trader. People who try to trade back and forth usually get caught up in emotions and end up losing money. What you want is to POSITION TRADE for the long-haul.  Here is what happens just using the Long-term Reversals only – not even every single one. Sure, you leave some on the table. The important thing is to reduce the number of trades and your confidence will increase and you will actually make more at the end of the day.

Right now, we are still in this consolidation phase, yet this is still a cycle inversion. We have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals at all so you just stay with the trade. The exit point keeps rising as the market rises. You can use the Weekly to Exit after a long bullish run. But for now, just hang tight. We may have the greatest trade on the century knocking on the door very soon.

It’s the Inter-connectivity that is the Key


QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong,
I read your blog since many years (i live in France) and i’m really impressed by Socrates … You have said that the $ will going to rise against the € and it’s exactly what’s happened !!
You have said that the Dow Jones will rise into 26 000 points and will go on into 40 000 points and the Dow rise since the elction of Trump and we are going to live what Socrates has predicted !!
INCREDIBLE because all the interview and news that i have seen were going to explain that it will be the contrary. Is it the slingshot which is going to happen ? Are we waiting the rise of the Gold before to have the final signal ?
You have always said that the Gold, the $ and the Dow will rise together when the slingshot will begin … are we to this moment ? or is it too early ?
Thanks Mr Armstrong and good things to you and your team.

LB

ANSWER: Absolutely everything is connected. If you get one right, then the rest must follow. It is really impossible to have one market moving opposite of everything else. It is sort of like the world is in a Great Depression and it is impossible for one politician in one country to reverse the trend of the world. So the world economy is very much like a set of dominoes. It is impossible to reverse the trend and it just has to play out. We are not yet ready on the gold. As you can see, gold has been declining in dollars as well as euros. The markets have been consolidating waiting as people are trying to figure out if this the big crash or not. The majority keep calling for the end of times. This has been the MOST hated Bull Market in history. They keep calling for the crash ever since 2009.

Bonds & The Record High Short Position Can Majority Be Wrong?


 

QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Can you help us better understand the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis as it relates to US Treasuries? I know we are in a global debt crisis, which will also impact US Treasuries but it seems like short treasuries is the current consensus (I believe they are currently at the biggest net short position in recent history). Since most people need to be wrong, does this suggest that as global debt unwinds that perhaps US Treasuries may still have another rally in them before the final crash?

Thank you for any insight into what we know to be the greatest bubble.

Looking forward to the WEC!
SB

ANSWER: We have to always look at markets collectively from a global perspective, and also separating the long-term from the short-term trend. It is sort of the saying you can win the battle, but lose the war. This is the same thing. In the case of interest rates, the long-term is clearly staring at higher rates square in the eyes. However, then we have shifts in trend within the short-term. For example, domestically, you have this pervasive hatred of the stock market and as an evergreen tree, they have been perpetually bearish since 2009. They have not wavered in that forecast because they have blinders on and make forecasts solely upon a flat model limited to patterns and domestic analysis at best. Therefore, there will be these bouts of flight to quality sell stocks and buy bonds. We have NOT yet crossed the Rubicon in interest rates. We still have not yet elected the 4th Monthly Bearish Reversal. When we do, the 30-year will signal the debt crisis is in full gear.

Now we have to look at this market from a Hedge Fund Manager’s world. My decision has to be made on a global scale – not domestic. This boils down to you are a prince and your father compels you to ask one of the three ugliest girls in town for a date for political reasons for the realm. So, you choose the prettiest of the three ugly sisters as they say. This is what happens internationally. You have to have money in debt because you are trying to also be diversified (I do not always agree with that strategy). Hence, the euro looks like death warmed over, political chaos is brewing, so you have to push money out the door to other currencies. Hence, the dollar keeps rising and the political rhetoric against Trump is desperate to hide the trend that his strategies have been working on bringing capital home and renegotiating NAFTA. So with the dollar strong, euro in crisis, you have no choice but to buy Treasuries even if for short-term plays.

Consequently, you can be correct that the long-term trend is UP UP AND AWAY for interest rates. However, the devil is lurking behind every rock along the path. You may be correct on the war, but lose a fortune of the short-term corrections. Hence, we have not yet crossed the Rubicon. When we do, it will be time to shout very loud so our readers will hear. We can see that the chart patterns between dollars and euro in the 30-year Treasuries is as different as night and day.

Know the Enemy


Despite the naysayers’ denials, we are at war.  Some cite President George H.W. Bush as the impetus when he signed UN Agenda 21 in 1992, calling it a One World Government, a la George Soros’s One World Order.  And with all the offenses we have seen since then, occurring more frequently now than before 9/11, we continue to misjudge our formidable foe and wait for recognizable uniforms, grander weaponry and futuristic vehicles.  Rather, one facet of the war comes by small boats and on foot.

They are a ragtag army, shabby, unruly, ungovernable with no discernible leader, although they operate in unison, and occasionally accompanied by a woman and child to confuse and tug at heartstrings.  Their methods are effective because our populace has been shamed into obediently accepting the concept of multiculturalism from tyrannical regimes over our own, believing that disparate, incongruent, and even conflicting ideas can suddenly and mysteriously blossom into harmony once they’re embraced on Western soil.

We underestimate these people of the sand, whose accomplishments cannot be measured by our standards, cannot earn our respect or Nobel prizes, yet they nevertheless manage to achieve their undertakings, reach their objectives, and day by day, spread their influence throughout the world, poisoning and destroying all they touch.  How is it that, despite their backwardness, they can infiltrate other cultures and challenge the limits of democracies, republics and kingdoms?

First, the populations of western countries have been prepared by a thorough indoctrination of  believing themselves to be the cause of the world’s woes and, therefore, the ones responsible for their welfare and apportioning our bounty.

Second, the Islamic migrants’ training derives primarily from their family structure, where there is no fealty between the man and his multiple wives and concubines, who come from a background that leaves their basic human needs unmet, and continues the same ideology into the next generations.  Their offspring carry the familial enmity with them and their religion/ideology promotes a deep-seated hatred from the moment they can understand language.  We now also recognize that they are cast out by their families during their teen years, when they are most beset by physical, cognitive, emotional, social, sexual, and spiritual challenges.  They are filled with deep frustrations and rage, prepared to overwhelm the women of the welcoming countries, while facing little opposition from the men.

Third, the migrants are menacingly – even strategically – dispersed throughout most of western Europe.  France and Germany have the largest Muslim populations in Europe – 5.7 million (8.8%) in France and 5 million (6.1%) in Germany, and constitute 25.4 percent of Cyprus’s population.  Angela Merkel admitted that multiculturalism has “utterly failed,” as mosques are replacing churches, and attacks against Jews increase.  Sweden has become a “disaster, with her generous policy of mindless immigration and inability to control them, and 61 no-go zones, thus seriously endangering her citizens.  At 6,620 reported rapes in 2014, an increase of 300 percent, Sweden is the Rape Capital of Europe, second only to Lesotho, Africa.  The jihadi-rapists are Salafists who demand that women be veiled, disallow votes, and threaten business owners with decapitation, while the Swedish political leaders avert their attention.  Britain’s Muslims are responsible for kidnapping female students off the streets for sex trafficking.  “Grooming gangs”  abused more than 700 women and girls (sometimes boys) in North East section alone, including rape, supplying drugs and trafficking for sexual exploitation.

Fourth, by 2050, the Muslim population could double due to the overwhelmingly young male influx with high fertility rates.  The welcoming European countries are over-extended with the burden of providing food, clothing, shelter, healthcare and education in the billions of Euros; and dealing with the decline of societal cohesion, neighborhoods-turned-no-go-zones, a general rise in criminality; and a rise in Islamic-style crimes of gang rape, kidnapping and sexually enslaving young women and children.

Disclaimers be damned, France’s character is hanging in the balance. Her Muslim minority, now estimated at 4.2 million (5% of the population) considers itself a new nation that will emerge as an Islamic African nation in 30 years due to rampant immigration by teens and young adults with a 33% higher birthrate than the indigenous French.  Their more than 700 Muslim neighborhoods are rife with riots, violence and law-breaking, unemployment, and increased Islamic identification with their women wearing the veil.  Rape is up 20%. Some 500,000 Muslims are said to be converts, while, by contrast, the Catholic church and clergy are on a dramatic decline.  “France is no longer France”; “Paris is no longer Paris.” It is now a state of fear, with increasing Muslim assertiveness.

The French authorities, Globalists, are more than mere bystanders.  They are complicit in destabilizing the values and identity of the occupied country.  Nathan, France’s most popular, controversial and government-funded textbook publisher, has produced books that are clearly indoctrinal.  A math book last year featured a math problem about drowning migrants.  This year, it produced a 32-page, sex-educational manual, “How to make babies,” read by millions of children, age five and older.  It contains love-making instructions and drawings of mixed-race couples, always unveiled white women with darker-skinned Arab-Muslim men – obvious thought reform.  The books address “love,” but there is no love in the multiple, non-consensual Islamic marriages.  Neither do the textbooks address what happens to French white girls who marry the older Muslim men.  When he returns with his bride to his country of origin, she faces the full impact of Sharia – beatings, imprisonment for disobedience, and she may be prevented from ever returning to her Western home.

Globalists accept the multitudes and endless chain-migration families on the absurd and deceitful premise that all cultures are equal, employing the same tactics used by other tyrannies.  Our own leftists have supplied our schools with the like-minded and proselytizing teaching materials to produce a compliant generation that is tolerant of the intolerable.  Our textbooks have long been teaching that America is colonialist and guilty of slavery.  The fact that we were among the first countries to abolish slavery has been omitted from the text.

Our children are no longer learning the truth about our country’s history and founding.  As we saw during the Kavanaugh hearings, young women are reacting viscerally that all men are guilty of crimes, and all contradictory opinions must be screamed down.  Our boys are being debilitated, ridiculed and feminized (emotionally emasculated) to the extreme.  They are eagerly accepting their leftist instructors’ views on whitewashed progressivism, communism, and Islamism; weakened in morality and responsibility for jobs and families, and proving to be less qualified to join the armed forces should they be needed for defense.

Cicero warned, “A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within.”  The Globalist regime has their army from within – the world’s children. 

 

By Tabitha Korol

https://tinyurl.com/y7e6z63d

 

Understanding the New Age of Inflation


QUESTION: As an avid reader of your daily BLOG, I’m well aware of the attempt to abolish cash, potential freezing of bank accounts, years of negative or near zero interest rates and “helicopter money” from the government are all likely scenarios in the near to distant future. Without compromising any of your business or proprietary agreements, positions of interest, or ethics, can you suggest or provide some alternatives as to measures to take to avoid this historical “train wreck” we a doomed to experience.
May GOD have mercy on our souls!
BEF

ANSWER: I get a lot of inquiries on this subject. It is much more than I can relate in just a blog post. So I flew to Germany to do another documentary on this subject matter. I believe it will be released in a matter of weeks. I am also putting the finishing touched on a book on inflation and hyperinflation. I am also desperately trying to get this out also before the WEC this November which I hope will put forth a completely new approach to understanding inflation not just for the individual, but to central bankers and politicians as well

Did Victory Become our Guardian Angel?


QUESTION: I was told that Michael the Arc Angel was fashioned after Victory. Is that true?

ANSWER: Well it is hard to say that he specifically was fashioned after the ancient image of Victory, which goes back to Greek times – pre-Roman. There is the Greek statue in the Louvre of Victory or Nike standing on the prow of a ship. You obviously see the wings after which Christians at least adopted the image of an angel.

The personification of military Victory is, at least on the coins, one of the most enduring of Roman depictions. The direct counterpart to the Greeks‘ Nike, Victoria figures prominently not only as one of the most generic coin types but is also heavily rendered in Roman friezes, statuary, and jewelry from one end of the empire to the other.

It would be difficult to find an emperor who did not strike a VICTORIA AVG issue whether the reign was beset by wars or enjoyed prolonged peace. So pervasive is the iconography of this martial protector that even the most ardent Christians were unable to dislodge her primacy in the populace.


To avoid the potentially disastrous conflicts that might have stemmed from prohibiting her imagery and adulation it was decided to simply Christianize her along with her inseparable attributes of wreath and palm.

By the fifth century, with old school paganism fast on the wane, her memory had been fully co-opted into Christian lore so that the representation would now be interpreted as the depiction of an angel or, if not too redundant, a guardian angel whose presence will ensure continued victory against infidels.

As far as Michael is concerned, it would be the only speculation if Victory was transformed into him directly. The only thing that can be supported is that angels were then pictured as the image of Nike and the Roman Victory. It is just imagery