Trump’s Tax Reform


 

 

These days, US President Donald Trump is pushing his number one agenda of his term in office – major tax reform. Trump has been meeting with some of his own party senators seeking approval for the planned tax reform he is hoping will be signed by the end of December at the latest for a Christmas present. The negotiations on the details are in the final stages. If the reform is very real indeed, and make no mistake about it, this would be a tremendous triumph for Trump and for the nation as a whole. Trump has the potential to take the United States counter-cyclical (cycle inversion) that would actually put a tremendous amount of pressure on the rest of the world.

There are some who are concerned about removing the tax deduction for state income taxes. Deducting state income taxes from your Federal taxes has been quietly talked about behind the curtain for some time. It was also one factor in my own relocate out of New Jersey to Florida. The elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes will be a major death blow for the high taxed states like California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut etc..

The states have been effectively double-dipping. I remember when the New Jersey state income tax was put in. The politicians said it would cost you nothing because you could deduct it from your federal taxes. Essentially, it was the way for the state to covertly get more money that they were not accountable for. That game is coming to an end. If Trump eliminates that deduction, then and ONLY then will the people start to hold the states accountable for the first time EVER! Repealing it would increase federal revenue by $1.3 trillion over the decade

Deductions would remain for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. Additionally, the standard deduction would nearly double to $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for married couples.

Choosing the Fed Chairman


Many expect Mr. Jerome H. Powell to be President Trump pick for Fed Chairman. Trump is resisting pressure by conservatives to make a larger change at the Fed. Many conservatives, including Vice President Mike Pence, preferred John B. Taylor, who is an economist at Stanford and an outspoken critic of the Fed’s monetary policy. Taylor previously served in the Treasury Department during the Bush administration. However, he is best known as an academic economist with no real experience hands-on. He wrote an approach to monetary policy, known as the “Taylor Rule,” where he suggested that the Fed should be raising rates more quickly. That was obviously based on the economic theory of the Quantity of Money leads to inflation. He also has closely advised House Republicans on legislation that would require the Fed to adopt such a policy rule taking a hawkish approach to monetary policy.

Representative Warren Davidson, a Republican on the House Financial Services Committee’s monetary policy panel, is one of the people who want a change in policy toward more conservative and austerity. He is circulating a letter opposing Yellen’s reappointment. Personally, I believe Yellen has done a good job. She has been under international pressure not to raise rates from the IMF and just about everyone else because Europe is still floundering and higher rates would be expected to push the ECB and emerging markets off into the deep-end of the pool.

Mr. Powell, on the other hand, has consistently supported the Fed’s campaign to stimulate economic growth. However, Powell expressed some reservations in internal debates about the extent of those efforts. In more recent years, Powell has backed the methodical unwinding of those efforts, and analysts expect he will seek to raise interest rates at about the same pace as Ms. Yellen.

Germany Also Engages in Political Prosecution


The Alternative for Germany party (AfD) in Germany has asked the Federal Government to file a lawsuit against all decisions of European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the purchase of government bonds and corporate bonds as well as derivatives since 2015. They are petitioning to file in the European Court of Justice asserting that the policies of the European Treaties and by the Federal Constitutional Court were being violated.

Effectively, the ECB “stimulus” policy (QE) has completely failed and instead has become a life-support system subsidizing the debt of Eurozone member states. Even reducing the amount bought per month is an attempt to see if the marketplace takes up the debt. But the Eurozone governments never cut back spending or reformed. They never had to. The QE program was merely targeting to support the government – not the average person in the economy.

Meanwhile, the former leader of the nationalist AfD, Frauke Petry, was formally charged with perjury and was accused of lying under oath about the party’s finances. If found guilty she would face a minimum sentence of six months in jail, but it would be the end of her political career. This seems to be another political-prosecution.

Frauke Petry resigned from the AfD and has plans to form a new political group in the German parliament that will be distant from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). For this reason, she is a threat politically.

Why are all politicians not prosecuted for lying to the public to win an election and then do the opposite? The charges against Petry are intended to stop her political career.

Towns Restoring to Extortion of Drivers to Raise Money


 

I have written about the abuse of Civil Asset Forfeiture laws in the United States, which have mimicked now in Europe. Police are no longer used to protect society, but to target and harass society to raise money for the politicians. It is a shame that Trump has never been pulled over by the police. He would have received a taste of the attitude that confronts you.

The town of Castleberry, Alabama is just the tip of the iceberg. This tiny town of just 550 people has a police force 5 times the size of the national average per citizen. Why? They use every excuse to pull people over and confiscate whatever they can. The police have become the highway robbers that the Knights Templar were once formed to protect travelers on their pilgrimages.

The Knights Templar began a banking system because it became too dangerous to travel with money. These people would rob you giving rise to the term “highway robbery”. If you were in London and needed to send money to someone in Rome, you went to the Knights Templar and they would simply send a message and the local branch in Rome would make the payment for you and London took in your payment. This was how international payments began to surface after the Dark Age.

The French king seized the Papacy, moved it to Avignon in France, install a French Pope who then declared the Knights Templars were devil worshipers and seized all their wealth on Friday the 13th. They were all burned at the stake alive and the king got to keep all the money. This became the Financial Crisis of the 13Th-14th Century.

Looks like history repeats. We are back to highway robbery. Castleberry is by far not unique. %There are many small towns now doing the same thing to raise money for public officials.

The Rising Separatist Movements in Europe-Eastern Europe


There are many in Spain who just outright disagree with any right of Catalonia to be independent. History, culture, language, nothing really matters. Some have said it is the Spanish Constitution and all of Spain should vote to let Catalonia leave or stay. All of that said if Madrid had just allowed a fair referendum then whatever the vote was should have stood.

This is all about saving the EU and not Spain. It was the oppression that probably made others vote to leave. All of Spain cannot vote against one region. London did not vote on Scotland and neither did Toronto against Quebec. California has people pushing to separate and that is not a right to be decided by me in Florida.
Separatist movements are now rising throughout Europe. We see Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales in the UK all have separatist movements. There is even talk in Bavaria among friends I have there and Prussia wants more autonomy. Then there is Normandy and Brittany in France. There is a long list starting with Moravia, Lombardy, Insubria, South Tyrol, Carinthis, Friule-Venezia, Hungarian minorities, Savoy, Liguria, Corsica, Sardinia, Sicily, Rijeka Istria, Veneto, Padania, Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia, Sandzak, Serbian Republic, Vojvodina, Szekely Land, Gagauzia, Transnistria, Donbass, Crimea. Latgale, Ingria, Skameland, Samogita, Bornolm, and don’t forget Northen Cyprus. Some of these are asking for full independence and other more autonomy.
It is the economic issues intermixed with the refugee crisis that is sparking these movements today.

Spain Invades Catalonia – Nullifies the Democratic Vote


The Spanish Police have invaded Catalonia and the rigged high court of Spain nullifies its independence. It really is astonishing when you compare these actions to Russia and Crimea. At least Crimea the population were Russian speaking and not Ukrainian. Here we have Catalonia has had its own language from before the existence of Spain and have always regarded itself as separate and autonomous.

The action of Madrid are hailed and the constitution is the entire basis for the denial of human rights in Catalonia. Politicians have been carving the world and declaring borders for power. They have ignored language, race, religion and everything else for political power. Nobody ever says that is somehow wrong.

This is what is going on in Europe. Brussels is determined to eliminate borders, federalize Europe, and they hope in one or two generations, they will surrender language and culture to a central power.

The Politics of Change – Iceland – New Zealand – Czech Republic


The Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s Independence Party won the most votes in the Iceland election but he saw his party’s support eroded as voters turned to smaller parties in protest. This leaves the country in a position of uncertainty as the election has opened the door to power for the nation’s charismatic and very attractive left-wing leader, Katrin Jakobsdottir. Now Jakobsdottir has the chance to form together a narrow majority for a center-left coalition. She is a 41-year-old who is very popular on her own with pre-election polls that showed one in two voters wanted her as the premier.

Meanwhile, in the Czech Republic’s general election, the Populist billionaire candidate Andrej Babis and his party have won the largest cache of votes about 30%, which was three times that of anyone else. He ran on a Eurosceptic platform. He has said that he would not bring the Czech Republic into the Eurozone but he wants the country to stay in the EU. He also wants changes to the European Council on issues like food quality and a “solution to migration”.

The new Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, has declared that capitalism is a blatant failure. She has banned foreign investment in property in the country.

What we are witnessing is 1933. That is when Roosevelt, Mao, and Hitler all came to power. It was not a particular political philosophy, but whoever was in power was being thrown out.

EU Support Madrid Refuses to Acknowledge Catalonia


 

Madrid has seized Catalonia by force and the EU, of course, backs Madrid saying they do not recognize Catalonia as a free state. This is demonstrating that human rights in Europe mean nothing when it comes to protecting the jobs of those in Brussels. This is clearly sending a statement to the rest of Europe – shut up or you are next. That statement should surprise nobody since the rising separatist movements in Europe are against the power of Brussels.

Meanwhile, Spain is proposing to change the President of Catalonia with treason. They threatened him before that he would end up like the last attempt to break away – dead. The Catalan regional president, Carles Puigdemont, who has been deposed by the central government in Madrid, has called on the population to “democratically resist” the seizure by Madrid. In a televised address on Saturday, Puigdemont said he would continue to work to build a “free country”.

Puigdemont’s speech was also published in writing. This version was signed with “Carles Puigdemont, President of the Generalitat (Government) of Catalonia”. It was the first time since his dismissal following the Catalan Declaration of Independence on Friday that the politician voiced his opinion.

Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría took control of Catalonia’s administration on the weekend. The Catalan police chief Josep Lluis Trapero was also terminated.

Idiots who try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure



 

COMMENT: Ok Mr. Armstrong, this is nuts; You are starting to freak me out with this forecasting. The last 2 months has blown me away when a few more elements of your methodology lit my bulb a little brighter. This may sound like you paid me to advertise for you but most of us know you’re not like Hillary. My simple approach combined 3 pieces important to me: 1. Basic knowledge of the markets on a global scale, 2. Basic understanding of your models and Socrates reports 3. Basic interpretation of the ArmstrongEconomics Blog. (utmost importance, hints included) Like Erwin said last year “it might save your life.”

He is so right.

Best to all;

RH

REPLY: I assume you are probably talking about this Vertical Market. This report is probably one of the most important I may have ever released. It’s not easy because so many people have been caught up in the Austrian School of economic thought and the Quantity of Money theory. The entire Quantitative Easy has proven that theory to be completely wrong.

I know this is like having to relearn everything. But that is just the way it is. I and my senior staff even are going to private meetings with central banks. Everything we have ever been taught in school is just dead wrong. This whole nonsense of Conspiracy Theories of people who are steering the world economy is just insane. If that were even true, then why call us at all?

The world economy is coming unglued. This is no joke. The sooner people wake up and just follow the money flows and forget the old theories, the sooner you will arrive at clarity. The only economic theories that were spot on were Adam Smith, who had no ax to grind in the observation of the Invisible Hand, and David Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage. Everyone else ever since has been about trying to eliminate the Business Cycle. This has caused a vast mess and we are about to pay the price.

We have insane politicians like the new Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern who has declared that capitalism is a blatant failure while the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says capitalism is ‘merely’ coming to an end because it is making itself obsolete.

Both witnessed the economic collapse, but instead of blaming the government and its socialist attempt to control the business cycle, they blame the people for not performing as they demand. What they are harping on is the disparity of wealth and want to take the wealth from the hated rich and somehow that is going to make it better. They are ignorant of the fact that this hated group they despise so much create the economy and jobs – not Marxism. Their failure to even recognize the collapse of Russia and China under Marxist theory is a tragedy that will only lead to internal class warfare.

I thank God I do not have much longer on the planet. I am compelled to watch idiots try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure.

What Came First? Cultivation or Cities?


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read you One-World-Currency report. It was truly fascinating. From an academic perspective, what came first in the formation of civilization; agriculture or cities? Where does money fit into this historical perspective?

Thank you;

FD

ANSWER: There has been a fair amount of assumption that went into the history we were all taught in school. What has emerged since is a different perspective, to say the least! There are megaliths at Göbekli Tepe which were erected by hunter-gatherers around 9000 BC or about 3,000 years before history starts to be recorded. Göbekli Tepe is a stone-age mountain sanctuary. It has turned everything upside down insofar as it was assumed that the city came first and then agriculture. It appears that agriculture came first which enable people to create cities.

Göbekli Tepe proves that there was a shift from animism, a belief that attributes a soul to plants, inanimate objects, and natural phenomena inasmuch as there is some supernatural power that organizes and animates the material universe, to centralized religion. In other words, there was a shift from an egalitarian society all people are equal to a hierarchical society arranged in order of rank. Clearly, there had to be a profound economic change and yes there would have to be some sort of monetary reward in the form of some resource to create such a shift from an egalitarian to a hierarchical society.

Göbekli Tepe is extremely important despite its obscure purpose and meaning. It is not the meaning that we need argue over. The incredible fact is that such a monument was constructed in the first place 9000BC. The simple fact of its existence proves historical assumption dead wrong. It matters not whether these pillars that are carved were some religious rite or just a decoration. More than 200 pillars in about 20 circles are currently known and only 5% of the site has been excavated. The astonishing fact is economic. Producing more than 200 pillars took a lot of man-hours. That means the workers needed a stable food supply and therefore agricultural cultivate MUST have been existence BEFORE cities were carved out of stone.

The construction of Göbekli Tepe would also have required some division of labor among overseers, technicians, and workers and management. Therefore, this required a hierarchical society. Therefore, social development in creating such structures must have precipitated, rather than resulted from, the shift to agriculture.

The assumption was that cities came first and then cultivation. Obviously, you had to feed the people to construct the cities first. My bet is on cultivation came first and food became money. Money moved from food to clothing. We see the first use of metal as money being Bronze imitating a sheepskin, which was the standard of value; i.e. Jason and the Golden Fleece.

Even the early Roman bronze Aes Signatum (5 pounds of bronze) pictures a bull. Cattle were also a main monetary unit of value prior to metal.