The First Step is Admitting a Mistake


QUESTION:  Marty, Friends and Princeton Economics Staff,
I’ve certainly had a Hate and Love relationship with you over the past few years.!
I’ve travelled a path that has been financially stunting and painful on the markets for the last 10 years.
I’ve felt like that guy that just keeps donating to the markets and not ever understanding why things go down, when I think UP?!
You guys are doing the world a great service. Please continue, so people like me can change things for the better!

My Question is…
do you ever think about the people that lose on the other side of your trades?
The ones that are talked into rubbish investments by the banks and institutions?
I was one of them and I’m sure most of your readers have to admit some of the same at some point!? (its been quite the ride!)

Thank You for your service Marty .

Please. never get disheartened by the nay Sayers.
Please don’t bow to the institutions and RICH MEN/Women that want you for themselves!
You said a few things in Question Time at the Hong Kong Seminar that solidify your humanity and service to this world and I appreciate that.
Take Care and I hope to attend another seminar and shake your hand this time (You are a Bit of a rockstar at the cocktail party) I am a stand to the side kinda guy.
Yourself, Your Family and then the and then the world. That is my promise Marty.
Better the world…
Alex…

ANSWER: We have all been on the losing side of a trade. The critical point is understanding why you were wrong and NOT blaming other people. As long as you blame the bankers or some manipulative cabal, you are not admitting that you were wrong. The only way to advance is to accept your mistakes and then learn from them.

You are making that first step by admitting you were wrong. That is really the first step on the road to successful trading. The old saying, you can lead a horse to the water, but you cannot make him drink. The world is speaking to us. We just have to learn to listen. The gold promoters, bankers, brokers, and government, all pitch a scenario that benefits them. No different from the used car salesman who tells you every one was driven by a little old lady only once a week.

We are looking at hopefully Singapore

The Transitional Flight to Quality


QUESTION: Hey Martin, … My question is: is there an influence of the Dow at this moment on the cryptocurrency market and the precious metal market? As you say, gold is not ready yet… Will the possible correction of the Dow play the confidence game and scare a lot of markets off?

ANSWER: Yes. With Dow declining, we are failing to see a rally in cryptocurrency or gold and the long-touted flight to quality is not unfolding as most have expected.

When Equities typically decline, people run to the government bonds, and this we call the Flight to Quality. Others have touted that gold would soar when the stock market crashes. That too has not unfolded. Others have forecast that the dollar will collapse when the stock market crashes. Hm, even the Euro has declined.

What nobody seems to be talking about is what happens when the crisis is confined to government? Is that when gold rises? But then what about stocks? When CONFIDENCE collapses in government, the Flight to Quality becomes the opposite of tradition sell equities and buy bonds. Even when gold was rising moving up into 1980, bonds were declining.

So what is going on this time? We are in the midst of the Transition from the confidence in government to the private sector but nobody seems to understand what is unfolding. This is why we are getting mixed signals and strange relationships.

People will invest in the private sector and sell government bonds, smelling a default in the wind.We are more than likely going to get the first kneejerk reaction, where equities will DECLINE and people will rush into government bonds, even with negative yields. This should create the final bubble top in debt, and then it will reverse in a Flash Crash type move. Traditional people will buy bonds and lose a fortune. Others will sell their stocks at the lows and jump on short positions. This will set the stage for a crazy period that comes around every so often, measured in hundreds of years

Gleeful U.S. Media Sell Joys of DPRK Communism At Winter Olympics…


This won’t come as a surprise to most, because if you scratch almost any mainstream U.S. journalist you’ll discover a DNA-level love for totalitarianism at the heart of their world-view.

However, for the non-indoctrinated it is still disconcerting to see U.S. media cheerfully spread propaganda for communist dictators and their regime. [Perhaps Anderson Cooper will take pictures atop North Korean anti-aircraft guns.]

Meanwhile, REALITY:

Right Angle: Moment of Truth in Afghanistan


The US has been fighting in Afghanistan for nearly 20 years. Is President Trump the one to finally finish this drawn-out war?

Indulgences & Protestant Reformation v Banking


QUESTION:

Hi Martin–

The Christian Reformation of 1517 was the springboard for the development of western civilization. Most scholars focus on the theological aspects of the Protestants vs. the Catholics. But all have missed this key point: the economic impact of indulgences. I theorize that when indulgences ended, the masses had vast amounts of disposable income and could now focus on their deplorable living conditions. They starting saving capital with the intent of buying their own fields, then the Jewish banking cartel stepped in to offer leverage needed to facilitate the purchase of real estate for farming. Then the cash flow started and other businesses began to open, creating an economic explosion the likes of which actually ended the Middle Ages and launched Western Civilization.
Am I correct…?
Thanks–Jack
ANSWER: Interesting theory, but the indulgences were never that major level with the economic system. What the Protestant Reformation did was the beginning a Capitalism for previously only the Jews were bankers and they tended to be restrained overall and were not lending down to individual consumers. The Protestant Reformation was funded by rich merchants who wanted to be bankers, but the Catholic practiced the Sin of Usury just as did the Muslims. The Protestant Reformation opened the door to Christian banking and then credit became widespread. This leveraged the economy and thus here is where the line is drawn for the rebirth of Capitalism.

Soros – One of the Greatest Threats Against Society?


It is no secret that I have no respect for George Soros and that is aside from the fact that we would often be on opposite sides of the market. I never saw Soros as a great trader. Even the reputation that he broke the Bank of England was nonsense. The “Club” was all on that trade and it was a guaranteed trade where if the peg broke, you made a fortune and if you were wrong, you got your money back. I was on the opposite side back then being called in by those in the British government. After a 7-year bull market in equities, Soros finally threw in the towel ending his bets on the stock market crash only after being wrong for so long.

Soros lost big time on the Russian manipulation when the “Club” was bribing the IMF to keep the loans to Russia going so they could make a fortune in interest rates. That failed and ended up in Long-Term Capital Management debacle. Soros lost $2 billion on that one. I believe he also lost when the “Club” was targeting the Japanese yen in 1999. So I never saw Soros as some fantastic trader. I believe he was just simply on the right side of a few big plays orchestrated by the “Club” and never by himself.

Macedonia 3-26-2017

I personally find him very dangerous politically. He stands for control of the people and is always plotting for the manipulation of society. He is always on the side of Marxist/Socialism and disturbs me greatly. This is just his political philosophy. There has been a rising movement against Soros on a global scale. This is one person who the world will celebrate his death – not morn it.

The Telegraph is now reporting that Soros “is one of three senior figures linked to the Remain-supporting campaign group Best for Britain who plan to launch a nationwide advertising campaign this month, which they hope will lead to a second referendum to keep Britain in the EU.” Soros is on the wrong side. Europe has no chance of the EU Project actually succeeding long-term. The entire structure is completely unsound and the political process is anti-Democrat. The EU was purposefully designed to be as close to a dictatorship where the people are not trusted to make any decision and are too stupid to even know how to spend their own money. Nobody in the Troika ever stands for an election and they are the people who rule with an iron fist over the economy.

 

Suicide by Police


Every police officer is armed and rarely will they ever be found guilty of killing citizens. In London, the police were unarmed and there was far less violence. A criminal in the state knows he may have to shoot his way out because the police are armed.

Nonetheless, there is also a growing trend of what is being called “Suicide by Cop” where people lack the courage to commit suicide so they look for other means. Inside prison, they will typically pick a fight with someone they know would kill them

Outside, people who are already contemplating suicide but lack the courage, decide that provoking a policeman into killing them is the best way to achieve that goal. These individuals may even commit a crime with the specific intention of provoking the police into a lethal confrontation.

Still, others who are committing a crime but have been in prison before may choose to shoot it out and prefer death to prison.

The question becomes, should every police officer carry a gun? Should there be special forces that are called in? If they know the police are not armed, as, in London, they don’t shoot them. Interesting question!

Illinois – Property Values Collapsing as Taxes Rise


Property values in Illinois are collapsing thanks to the State being over the edge with its fiscal mismanagement. The state employee pensions are bankrupting the state and are now destroying the value of property in the States as a whole. We previously warned back in 2015: “This is why it appears that real estate will peak with this turn on 2015.75. Some areas will be hit very hard; Illinois will be a disaster for their Constitution states that government pensions cannot be reduced. This means they will raise taxes dramatically, destroy their economy, until eventually entering bankruptcy. The next four years will be devastating with tax increases in many areas.”

Now as property taxes keep rising, property values are collapsing. The state is experiencing NET MIGRATION outward and this is a major problem. Those who own hoses in Illinois better get out of the state before you find you can never sell your property. Just follow the signs – it’s not that hard. They haven’t yet put up road-blocks to prevent people from leaving. But expect an exit tax to shake you down if you leave soon.

President Trump Remarks During National Prayer Breakfast…


Earlier today President Donald Trump delivered remarks during the 66th annual National Prayer Breakfast in Washington DC. (Video and Transcript)

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[Transcript] 8:48 A.M. EST – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Charlie. (Applause.) Thank you very much. And thank you, Randy, for that very kind introduction. I want to thank you and Congressman Charlie Crist for serving as co-chairs this year.

It’s an honor to be with so many faith leaders, members of Congress, and dignitaries from all around the world as we continue this extraordinary tradition. I’m very glad to be joined by many members of my Cabinet. You’re doing a terrific job.

I want to extend our appreciation to the First Lady of Rwanda for leading the opening prayer. Thank you. Thank you very much. (Applause.)

I also want to thank my two great friends, Mark Burnett and Roma Downey. They’re some here. Where are they? They are two terrific people. Stand up, Mark. You deserve it. Even though he comes from Hollywood. (Applause.) Roma, thank you very much. Thank you for being here.

Major Scotty Smiley and Tiffany, we’re moved by your faith and your courage, and inspired by your service and sacrifice. That was really beautiful. Thank you very much. Thank you. (Applause.)

And to my friend, and everybody’s friend, Steve Scalise, we are so glad to have you with us today. Your presence reminds us of Jesus’s words in the Book of Matthew: “With God all things are possible.” You are fantastic. You really are, Steve. (Applause.) Fantastic man.

America is a nation of believers, and together we are strengthened by the power of prayer. This morning, our hearts are full of gratitude as we come together for the 66th annual National Prayer Breakfast.

But our hearts are also saddened by the absence of the co-founder of this wonderful breakfast who passed away last year, Doug Coe, who everybody loved. (Applause.) For 60 years, Doug devoted his time and passion to this Prayer Breakfast and to many other wonderful causes. Today, we are blessed to be joined by Doug’s wife Jan, and two of their sons, David and Tim. (Applause.) Thank you. Thank you very much. Great man.

I want to thank you for carrying on Doug’s legacy also, and bringing our nation together in prayer. You are indeed carrying on his great legacy.

Each year, this event reminds us that faith is central to American life and to liberty. Our founders invoked our Creator four times in the Declaration of Independence. Our currency declares, “In God We Trust.” (Applause.) And we place our hands on our hearts as we recite the Pledge of Allegiance and proclaim we are “One Nation Under God.” (Applause.)

Our rights are not given to us by man; our rights come from our Creator. (Applause.) No matter what, no Earthly force can take those rights away. (Applause.) That is why the words “Praise be to God” are etched atop the Washington Monument, and those same words are etched into the hearts of our people.

So today, we praise God for how truly blessed we are to be American. (Applause.) Across our land, we see the splendor of God’s creation. Throughout our history, we see the story of God’s providence. And in every city and town, we see the Lord’s grace all around us, through a million acts of kindness, courage and generosity. We love God.

We see the Lord’s grace in the service members who risk their lives for our freedom. We see it in the teachers who work tirelessly for their students, and the police who sacrifice for our communities — and sacrifice they do. (Applause.)

And we see the Lord’s grace in the moms and dads who work two and three jobs to give their children the chance for a better and much more prosperous and happier life.

As the Bible tells us, for we are God’s handiwork, created in Jesus Christ to do good works. America’s heroes rise to this calling. In their selfless deeds, they reveal the beauty and goodness of the human soul.

When catastrophic hurricanes struck, first responders and everyday citizens dove into rushing waters to save stranded families from danger. And they saved them by the thousands. Neighbors opened their homes to those in need of food, clothes, shelter. Firefighters braved blinding smoke and flames to rescue children from devastating wildfires.

During the horrific shootings, strangers shielded strangers, and police officers ran into a hail of bullets to save the lives of their fellow Americans, right in Las Vegas. A terrible day, a terrible night. But such bravery.

Families have adopted babies orphaned by the opioid epidemic and given them loving homes. Communities and churches have reached out to those struggling with addiction, and shown them the path to a clean life, a good job, and a renewed sense of purpose.

And soldiers, sailors, Coast Guardsmen, airmen, and Marines have spent long months away from home defending our great American flag. (Applause.)

All we have to do is open our eyes and look around us, and we can see God’s hand. In the courage of our fellow citizens, we see the power of God’s love at work in our souls, and the power of God’s will to answer all of our prayers.

When Americans are able to live by their convictions, to speak openly of their faith, and to teach their children what is right, our families thrive, our communities flourish, and our nation can achieve anything at all. (Applause.)

Together, as Americans, we are a tireless force for justice and for peace. We have witnessed this truth over the past year.

For years, ISIS had brutally tortured and murdered Christians, Jews, religious minorities, and countless Muslims.

Today, the coalition to defeat ISIS has liberated almost 100 percent of the territory just recently held by these killers in Iraq and all throughout Syria. (Applause.)

Much work will always remain, but we will never rest until that job is completely done. And we are really doing it like never before. (Applause.)

We know that millions of people in Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, and other countries suffer under repressive and brutal regimes. America stands with all people suffering oppression and religious persecution.

Last week, during the State of the Union, the world was inspired by the story of a North Korean defector, Mr. Ji Seong-ho, who is now back in South Korea.

Before his escape, when Seong-ho was being tortured by North Korean officials, there was one thing that kept him from losing hope: Over and over again, he recited the Lord’s Prayer. He prayed for peace, and he prayed for freedom. And now, as you know, Seong-ho is free and a symbol of hope to millions of people all around the world. (Applause.)

Here with us today is another symbol of hope, a very brave 9-year-old girl named Sophia Marie Campa Peters. Sophia suffers from a rare disease that has caused her to have many strokes. At one point, the doctors told Sophia that she would not be able to walk.

Sophia replied, “If you’re only going to talk about what I can’t do, then I don’t want to hear it — (laughter) — just let me try to walk.” (Applause.)

She tried, and she succeeded. And one of her doctors even told her mom — and they’re right here in the front row where they should be — “This little girl has God on her side.” (Applause.) Thank you, Sophia. Thank you, mom. Great mom.

I said, “Do you love your mom?” She said, “I have a great mom. I love my mom.” (Laughter.) Right?

Just two weeks ago, Sophia needed to have a very high-risk surgery. She decided to ask the whole world to pray for her, and she hoped to reach 10,000 people.

On January 24th, as Sophia went into surgery, she far surpassed her goal. Millions and millions of people lifted Sophia up in their prayers.

Today, we thank God that Sophia is with us, and she’s recovering, and she’s walking very well. (Applause.)

And I have to say this, Sophia: You may only be 9 years old, but you are already a hero to all of us in this room, and all over the world. Thank you, Sophia. (Applause).

Heroes like Sophia come from all across our country and from every different background. But they all share one thing in common: Through their love, their courage, their sacrifice, we glimpse the grace of almighty God.

So today, inspired by our fellow citizens, let us resolve to find the best within ourselves. Let us pray for that extra measure of strength and that extra measure of devotion. And let us seek to build a more just and peaceful world, where every child can grow up without violence, worship without fear, and reach their God-given potential.

As long as we are true to America’s founding and the example that all of these great founders have set, we can all be heroes to everybody, and they can be heroes to us.

As long as we open our eyes to God’s grace and open our hearts to God’s love, then America will forever be the land of the free, the home of the brave, and a light unto all nations. (Applause.)

Thank you for this incredible event and to our wonderful hosts. And thank you to all of our heroes for serving, protecting, and inspiring America each and every day.

God bless you, and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you. (Applause.)

Source for the History of Interest Rates


QUESTION: Hello Martin:

I was quoting you while speaking to a friend from a similar recent post where you stated that interest rates were at 5,000 year lows.

They asked me where you got data going back 5,000 years and of course I was at a loss to explain. So my question is: does such actual data exist?

“How can you have such an even with interest rates at 5,000 lows and governments unable to fund themselves? ”

Just one more thing: if Socrates was female and I was a bachelor, I’d be coming to her door every five minutes with another bunch of roses,,,,,

ANSWER: Interest rates are one of the areas along with money that we have historical records back to the start of recorded history. There is even a great data source based in part on the work of by Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla – History of Interest Rates. We have the full account of that research on the site under History.

Our work incorporates that data source and we have added additional material uncovered from historical records.