Tag Archives: TPP

Jul 12 2017

China & The Rule of Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Jul 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your analysis of Country Risk. It was truly fascinating. You are correct. We do not consider investing in Syria or Iran no less North Korea because they are not safe places to do business. That is clearly the first decision which shuts down any further consideration.

So I must ask. What is your next advice to China? And will you be coming to Shanghai for a conference anytime soon?

Thank you

ANSWER: My advice to China is now to formalizing the Rule of Law, establish courts with true independent judges nominated only by the private sector, and their terms should be a maximum of 2 years and out – barred from ever holding any government job again. I am aware that Federal judges from New York went to China to explain how to establish the court system modeled on the USA. Do NOT listen to such advice. American judges cannot be trusted.

Absolutely no legal right should be subject to the oscillating wishes of a judge. Sir William Blacksone wrote in 1776: “That the king can do no wrong is a necessary and fundamental principle of the English constitution.” That is fundamentally at odds with what he also wrote: “It is better that ten guilty escape than one innocent suffer.”

We must be mindful that perhaps the most honest ruler to have have held power with respect to the Rule of Law was Julian II (360-363AD) known as the Apostate, because he rejected Christianity after he family, related to Constantine I the Great, were murder the night he died by his son to prevent any rival to the throne. When Julian II came to power, he was the most brilliant ruler ever. In the criminal trial of Numerius, governor of Gallia Narbonensis, who was accused of embezzlement, Numerius had successfully defended himself against the prosecutor Delphidius. The prosecutor did not like to lose and said anyone could be found guilty if they only denied the charges. Julian’s response, quoted in Book XVIII of Ammianus’s History, “Can anyone be proved innocent, if it be enough to have accused him?”

Julian said that not even the emperor was above the law. This should be fundamental to the Survivability of any society. We must understand that those in the judiciary call themselves “honorable” without ever having to demonstrate that they possess such as distinction.  For I think prosecutors and judges, act in their own little bubbles to the detriment of society, yet give very great pleasure to themselves in wielding power and always being correct.

Established the best UNBIASED Rule of Law and capital will pour into China fleeing the corruption of the West.

Jul 12 2017

There is Now Enough Evidence to Indict Comey or Snowden Should be Pardoned


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Jul 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Comey is as guilty as Hillary for treating government work product including top secret information as personal. Comey, just like Hillary, claimed the memos were all “personal” that he made talking to Trump because he did not trust him (contrary to his trust for Clintons). There is no such “personal” qualification and he leaked those memos to the New York Times which he admitted openly in Congress. But those memos contained classified information and that was a CRIME for him to leak them no less pretend their were he “personal” property. Every FBI agents signed a confidentiality agreement as do traders working for a bank. The agreement signed by Comey states plainly: “all information acquired by me in connection with my official duties with the FBI and all official material to which I have access remain the property of the United States of America.” This means (1) he stole government documents obstructing any investigation of him, and (2) he then leaked classified information to the New York Times. Let6’s see; they say Snowden should be indicted for the same thing. Curious!

This is why Comey never recorded Hillary’s “interview” before the FBI to ensure she could never be charged as Martha Stuart was for “lying to the FBI” in such an interview and sent to prison. Comey wrote private memos when talking to Trump, but not Hillary, and then leaked classified information to the New York Times releasing his memos. Legally, he should be prosecuted as they prosecuted Lewis “Scooter” Libby who was Dick Cheney’s chief of staff for leaking information.

In United States v. Libby, he was put on trial for interfering with special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald’s criminal investigation of the Plame affair by lying in an interview with the FBI when he was indicted by a federal grand jury on five felony counts of making false statements to federal investigators, something Comey protected Hillary from by not recording the “interview” which is standard operational procedure. Libby served as Assistant to the President under George W. Bush and Chief of Staff to Dick Cheney from 2001 to 2005. Bush denied giving him even a pardon.

Then Comey granted immunity to Hillary Clinton lawyer Cheryl Mills to protect her against prosecution. In fact, Comey strikingly gave wholesale immunity deals to virtually every person who had intimate knowledge of Hillary Clinton’s illegal private server and emails. This protected Hillary for nobody would testify against her under threat of imprisonment. Comey abused his discretion and made sure that Hillary could not be prosecuted.

There is now more than enough information to hand to a Grand Jury for Comey to be indicted. And he should be indicted to colluding with Hillary not to record her “interview” and then giving immunity to everyone around her. If Congress FAILS to prosecute Comey, then Trump should pardon Snowden!!!!!!!! What happened to “Equal Protection of Law” and where is “justice for all” we indoctrinate children to pledge in school?

Jul 12 2017

The Destruction of Hamburg is Massive


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted Jul 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The destruction of Hamburg has been massive. There is much going on behind the scenes politically with the focus now on intensely monitoring and censorship to be imposed. The degree of violence many view as unprecedented since the raid on Jewish businesses during the Nazi era. Inquiries are now looking into the organizers behind the scenes and where this originated from.

If funding came from any group inspired to create political unrest, we will see some head perhaps roll, but if that head is Soros, it will be swept under the rug with a bunch of money. Someone had to pay for the banners “G20 Welcome to Hell” which clearly illustrates this was premeditated and not spontaneous.

Jul 11 2017

Gold


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

We have not yet broken gold for all the people writing in. So far we have elected three Weekly Bearish Reversals from the July 2016 high in gold and three Monthly Bearish Reversals. We have elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals from the high in June and fallen into the target week of July 10th and last week was the Panic Cycle. We now look to the week of July 24th for the next turning point.

We are getting ready to relaunch Socrates. This is what it wrote for the Detailed Analysis today:

“Focusing on a trading perspective, the market has declined after making its high back in July 2016 at 137750. We did elect 3 Monthly Bearish Reversals warning that we have a more serious bearish shift in trend in play. Subsequently, we have formed a low at 112430 during December 2016 from which we have seen a bounce for the past 6 months. We have also elected 2 Monthly Bullish Reversals from the reaction low of December 2016 and we have now dropped back penetrating last month’s low implying we will retest support. A month-end closing below last month’s low of 123650 will be a technical warning of weakness ahead. Any long position should use a protective sell stop on a monthly closing basis at 121420. Keep in mind this is just a trading suggestion given it is merely a trading observation rule. Buy or sell signals take place on Reversals and Cycles. “

Categories: Gold
Jul 11 2017

Catalonia to Move to Referendum October 1st to Break From Spain


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Spanish region of Catalonia is preparing to hold a second referendum on separating from of Spain on October 1st, despite warnings from Madrid. Naturally, the EU is against any such separation. However, the regional tensions are historic and Catalonia is the rich and prosperous region of Spain with Barcelona being perhaps the most beautiful city in Europe. The separatist movement are generally small but rising on a global scale primarily because of governments going broke everywhere.

 

Spain was actually formed by the marriage of the Catholic Monarchs of Queen Isabella I of Castile (Spain) and King Ferdinand II of Aragon in general. Both regions were historically two separate nations. That distinction has lived on and it is economics that is driving the separatist movement as we see in Canada with Quebec and in the United States with movements building in Texas and California, albeit small minorities so far. Catalonia was not part of Aragon but to some degree much more isolated from Madrid as you can see on this map.

The government in Catalonia will immediately declare independence from Spain if the majority of the citizens vote for that result in a second referendum planned for October. However, if the majority of citizens voted against independence, new elections would have to be held in the region. Madrid opposes any separation for it would devastate their budget since they extract more revenue from Catalonia which is being forced to support the rest of the country, including the corruption and pension in Madrid.

The point is not whether or not the referendum votes to separate, The point is that such a separatist movement has risen to this level at all.

Jul 11 2017

The Pension Crisis – & – The Crash & Burn


Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: 

Hi Marty –

Question:

You have blogged about the pension crisis

and how Illinois and California on the brink of bamkruptcy.

Does this mean that other states which you don’t
mention, like Florida, Texas, and New York, are financially
sound and are going to be able to pay out pensions to their
retirees for the next 20 -30 years?

Thanks for being the main source of “real” information.

Sincerely….Paul

ANSWER: By no means are other states safe. The problem has been that government pretends that socialism is to take care of the poor when in fact they have their hand in the cookie jar before anyone else. The crisis stems from the fact that they have been giving themselves pensions with outrageous benefits like healthcare for life in many states which often includes their family.

The way states have operated (internationally) is that they simply assumed that there was a never-ending bucket of taxpayers to squeeze for money. The problem is that the population growth has declined, the pensions systems have been a Ponzi schemes from day-one, and they are running out of other people’s money.

All the studies show that the Baby Boomers counted upon government and do not have enough saved for retirement. The average person has just $300,000 tucked away. The low interest rates have killed their profits and most have not yet returned to the stock market after losses from 2007-2009. Everything has been destroyed by low interest rates to save banks at the expense of pension funds and private investment. The public has been brainwashed to think that government debt is “safe” when it is the most risky in the field. They have not invested wisely because most remain ignorant of how markets even function. Nothing can be sustained going forward under this model. Even Draghi in Europe now realizez that there is a pension crisis and he is really to blame for 10 years of low to zero interest rates that have utterly failed to save the economy.

This is the Sovereign Debt Crisis. It is inevitable and irreversible. The Solution I have put forth is really the only way out to prevent complete civil meltdown.  But it is unlikely that any such Solution will be adopted until we actually experience the Crash and Burn. That seems to be starting in 2018.

The Best advice is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Under no circumstances ASSUME that any government pension will actually be paid

Jul 11 2017

France Agrees to Pay All Costs for Turkey to Sign Paris Climate Accord


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would not ratify the Paris Climate Accord unless Europe paid all costs to Turkey. France agreed to pay Turkey compensation for the cost of implementation when signing the agreement. If Erdogan does not receive any financial funds, he said that his Parliament will not ratify the treaty.  Erdogan is demanding money from Europe for anything these days including to stop allowing refugees to travel to Greece.

Jul 10 2017

Germany Pensions System Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Jul 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The pension system in Germany has serious shortcomings. (Photo: dpa)

The German publication DWN has come out and warned that the German Pensions system is collapsing. They wrote:

The core problem of the German economy and society is miserable demography. A positive development, namely the increasing longevity of the population, is an extremely negative groundbreaking, namely a small number of children. This is reflected in one of the lowest birth rates in the world – and this has been the case for decades. The record-breaking birth rate is by no means rooted in a biological, but in deeper social causes and inadequate policies at different stages. One consequence is a pension system that is not sustainably financed , because the ratio of contributors and receivers will drastically deteriorate. 

The very design of pensions has been universal. They assumed that population would always increase and thus pensions would be funded by taxing the current generation to pay for the previous. The declining birthrate and the increase in longevity has blown out the pensions systems on a global scale. In the case of Germany, this is a primary reason behind accepting refugees with hopes of making up the decline in the birth rate. The problem has been the lack of a desire to assimilate when we are looking at 70% of refugees are males and are really just economic migrants lacking skills and language.

Jul 10 2017

Merkel’s Failed G20 Summit


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Jul 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Merkel chaired the G20 summit and she completely and utterly failed to lead G20 to a successful conclusion. Well of course, Merkel lost control of the streets of Hamburg, which looked more like a civil war challenging even her authority. However, Merkel thought she could score a major diplomatic triumph be getting everyone together to gang-up on Trump over the climate accord. Her own industries are yelling she will cost a tremendous amount of jobs pushing her climate agenda forward. What took place was that not merely was she unable to intimidate Trump, but China also insisted on being able to expand its carbon energy use agreeing with Trump.

Merkel has been unable to win an election ever reaching a majority of the popular vote. She has been Chancellor only by forming a coalition government with the agreement pf the SPD. The upcoming election shows that Merkel will once again fail to win a majority vote.

Merkel’s primary policy of promoting an attack upon Global Warming is to eliminate carbon fuels altogether. Meanwhile, Europe is unable to achieve a trade deal with the USA while Trump is on fast track to cut a trade deal with the UK. All thinks considered, Merkel’s G20 has been a complete failure on every level.

Jul 10 2017

German Secretary Economics Warns Low Interest Rates Have Failed


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Jul 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The German Secretary General of the Economic Council of the CDU, Wolfgang Steiger,  has highlighted the growing economic crisis in Europe. The negative interest rates of Draghi and the ECB have totally failed. He has pointed out that despite various EU stress tests for banks, time and again they continue to fail. He has stress himself that this does not strengthen the confidence in the rules or Europe. He has come out and bluntly states that ONLY reforms will work, not low interest rates.

We are looking at a very serious crisis unfolding in 2018. So get ready to rock-and-roll. We will be addressing this upcoming crisis in the EU at the July 22nd, 2017 German Seminar.