Are Cycles Universal or Regional?


PopulationOfRome

QUESTION:  I have a question regarding cycles. You provide some very detailed, historic references showing why certain events are occurring now (again). Is there a disposition for something that occurred in the past to be destined re-occur for a particular region/country (i.e. Greeks abandoning property due to excessive taxation) because it happened once and now the propensity to repeat that causal action again is “in their DNA”. Is that something we as Americans do not yet possess because we have not been around long enough to experience a “fall of Rome” type event?

SM

ANSWER: Cycles are based upon two element – (1) nature and (2) human nature. Some regions will be prone to natural disasters while others are not. Ironically, many of the best ports where cities grew such as Tokyo and San Francisco just as examples, were great harbors because of earthquakes. The landscape in California is strikingly beautiful compared ot the flat plain in Oklahoma, again because of earthquakes. The rocks that appear in Central Park in New York City are there because an earthquake fault runs through New York City making the harbor what it was. Hence, there are cycles that impact only on a regional basis due to nature.

With regard to Greeks walking away from inheritance because they cannot pay the tax, this is inherent to all societies when government goes too far. They imposed harsh laws in Vancouver against foreign real estate buyers and the market crashed. Because it was a local law, they moved to Victoria and Toronto. In Australia, they are seizing properties own by foreigners and selling them off. All of these types of interventions are reactions to events set in motion externally.

realestate

That said, this is the US cycle for real estate as a national whole. I just bought a house in Florida at about 50% of its 2007 high value. Trophy spots for the high end where people are just parking money we warned would make new highs going into 2015.75 – but that is not the bulk of the market. Why is the US market (minus trophies) down hard when that is not the case in other countries? The difference is the regional issue. In the USA, many people have 30 year mortgages. In Canada, the best you can get is a 10-year fixed mortgage. In Germany, you can get up to a 15-year fixed mortgage.

We must understand that property values are LEVERAGED, so if the money for fixed rate loans dries up because of interest rate hikes and political uncertainty, then real estate prices MUST fall. This is all because of the leverage that was deliberately injected into the real estate market during the Great Depression for property fell  in value so far, only cash buyers could buy anything. Farm land fell in value to below what it was sold for by the government more than 80 years before.

Real estate is different from stocks and gold. Yes it is a place to park money. However, be careful because without mortgages available, it falls further than other tangible assets because it has been LEVERAGED! Moreover, it is a fixed asset meaning you cannot leave with it. Therefore, people are forced to simply walk away when (1) the tax burden is too high and (2) there is war and the region is being invaded.

NY Times First Reported Trump was Wiretapped Back in January


NYT Jan 20 2017 Trump Wiretap

The New York Times print story on the front page of January 20th, 2017 read: “Wiretapped Data Used in Inquiry of Trump Aides”. Of course now, the New York Times is trying to downplay that story simply because Trump said Obama had wiretapped his campaign. Since “wiretapped data” was being used to investigate President Trump’s associates and they are going over those conversations, it seems self-evident that someone has the recorded conversations. INFOWARS is reporting that have evidence now of the wiretapping from a law enforcement source. How is it possible to go over conversations to investigate if any of Trump’s people spoke to Russians without recording those conversations?

McCain IncidentThe two Republicans who are trying to dethrone Trump I have stated are two men I would not shake hands with. John McCain, when a Lieutenant Commander in the U.S. Navy as a Navy pilot, played a hog-dog maneuver on July 29, 1967 that killed 134 sailors. McCain while on the deck of the carrier U.S.S. Forrestal, pulled a trick by doing a “wet start” up of his jet to show off. This created a large startling flame and sudden shocking noise from the rear of a jet engine. He also seems to have apparently armed a weapon that resulted in launching a powerful Zuni rocket across the carrier’s deck hitting other parked planes. The subsequent massive explosions, fire and destruction went several decks below and nearly sunk this U.S. aircraft carrier. This stunt resulted in the deaths of 134 sailors and seriously injure another 161 sailors blinding some.

McCain JohnAny other Navy pilot causing this type of death and destruction would have been grounded and charged. Not McCain. For you see, his grandfather was a famous FOUR STAR Navy admiral and his father was at the time a Navy FOUR STAR admiral. McCain was simply transferred and everything was covered-up. What is alleged thereafter is on a mission is that he was disliked by other pilots and they deliberately left him out to get shot down.

Wikipedia, not a reliable source to say the least, says: “During the Vietnam War, he was almost killed in the 1967 USS Forrestal fire. In October 1967, while on a bombing mission over Hanoi, he was shot down, seriously injured, and captured by the North Vietnamese. He was a prisoner of war until 1973. McCain experienced episodes of torture, and refused an out-of-sequence early repatriation offer. His war wounds have left him with lifelong physical limitations.”

This paragraph is added by Centinel2012, I have heard the McCain’s stay in the Hanoi Hilton was not as bad as claimed and that while there his nickname was “songbird” I’ll leave it to the reader what that means. I have also heard from a sailor that was on the Forrestal that the above incident is true, although there is a minor deviation which Doesn’t change the story but what happened afterwards.

John McCain is no conservative, which has been his complaint against Trump. McCain voted to tax the internet. He wrote in correspondence: “On May 7, 2013, I voted to support the Marketplace Fairness Act because this bill will ensure that sales tax is collected on all purchases, regardless of whether in a brick and mortar retailer or through internet transactions.”

The other Republican trying to stop Trump is none other than Lyndsey Graham who sponsored the  Act that allows the government to arbitrarily imprison you without a trial or a lawyer. All they need do is claim you were associated with “terrorism”. However, the definition of “terrorism” has expanded to anyone who resists government domestically as well. Members of the protest in Oregon protesting against the government has had the Washington Post asking – Why aren’t we calling the Oregon occupiers ‘terrorists’? Lyndsey Graham has unleashed the very tool that has wiped out the Constitution with changing the definition of a single word.

Humpty DumptyThese are the two Republicans trying to say Trump was not “wiretapped” but implying that there was no surveillance at all in any form. Yet Acting Attorney General Sally Yates, James Clapper and John Brennan, warned Trump that Michael Flynn did speak to Russian about the sanctions. They had access to those recorded conversations. What is stunning is how now everyone has amnesia about Flynn or how is it possible to investigate conversations if they do not have them?

It just appears that government is just so corrupt, there is nothing much we can do but just watch. Sooner or later, Humpty Dumpty will fall and nobody can put him back together again. This is part of the critical key to a Phase Transition. Such moves take place when people lose all trust and confidence in government. We are getting there.

America Supports Most of the Free World and we have 200,000 Troops Deployed To 177 Nation, this costs a lot of money but it is Required to Maintain world Peace


Tyler Durden's picture

There was no shortage of cuts proposed in Trump’s budget for 2018, which was released earlier this week. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, one of the few departments that did not receive a haircut was the Department of Defense. If the proposed budget ultimately passes in Congress, the DoD would be allocated an extra $54 billion in federal funding – a 10% increase that would be one of the largest one-year defense budget increases in American History.

To put the proposed increase in context, the United States already spends more on defense than the next seven countries combined. Meanwhile, the additional $54 billion is about the size of the United Kingdom’s entire defense budget.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

 

“BE ALL YOU CAN BE”

With over half of all U.S. discretionary spending being put towards the military each year, the U.S. is able to have extensive operations both at home and abroad. Our chart for this week breaks down military personnel based on the latest numbers released by the DoD on February 27, 2017.

In total, excluding civilian support staff, there are about 2.1 million troops. Of those, 1.3 million are on active duty, while about 800,000 are in reserve or part of the National Guard.

On a domestic basis, there are about 1.1 million active troops stationed in the United States, and here’s how they are grouped based on branch of service:

Internationally, there are just under 200,000 troops that are stationed in 177 countries throughout the world.

In 2015, Politico estimated that there are 800 U.S. bases abroad, and that it costs up to $100 billion annually to maintain this international presence

Senator Diane Feinstein Hints That Trump May Resign: “I Think He Is Going To Get Himself Out”


Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

It’s no secret that there is a concerted effort underway to do everything possible to remove President Donald Trump from office.

From Russian ties to business conflicts of interests, both Democrats and Republicans are actively working to find chinks in the President’s armor.

But for those with hope of change in their hearts, Democrat Senator Diane Feinstein says there is a possibility that Trump will eventually remove himself from office by filing his own resignation.

Speaking to a crowd during a town hall-style Questions and Answers session, Feinstein was asked how Congress is going to deal with Trump’s alleged illegal activities:

Journalist: We don’t know what’s happening but we know that he is breaking laws every day, he’s making money at Mar-a-lago, he’s getting copyrights in China, he has obvious dealings with Russia, the Dakota pipeline… there’s some many things that he’s doing that are unconstitutional… how are we going to get him out?

Feinstein: We have a lot of people looking at this… Technical people… I think he’s going to get himself out… I think sending sons to another country to make a financial deal for his company and then have that covered with government expenses… I think those government expenses should not be allowed.. we are working on a bill that will deal with conflict of interest… it’s difficult…

There are Videos of Feinstein speaking to what appears to be a local press pool of reporters and protesters where Feinstein discuss Trump’s conflicts of interests, and also who Feinstein husband’s firm directly benefited from bills she voted into law, proving once again that the hypocrisy of socialist Congressional representatives from California has no bounds…

Judge Allows Class Action Lawsuit Against City of San Jose by Attacked Trump Supporters…


Source: Judge Allows Class Action Lawsuit Against City of San Jose by Attacked Trump Supporters…

John McCain – The Rise And Fall Of An American ‘Hero’


Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by ‘Vaniam’ via The Burning Platform blog,

This is an Arizona patriot’s unique view on John Sydney McCain

As of late, we the people of Arizona are very shocked to see what he has become. He is a caricature of a man who, around here, is about as popular as the ping-pong president. How could the people of Arizona, the state that brought you the O.K. Corral, the Grand Canyon, constitutional carry, and sunshine 360 days a year re-elect such a steaming lumpen pile?

The truth is that Arizona like many other states is really two states, Arizona the free and Arizona the slave. The free side is much how you would imagine a free and prosperous state. Resplendent and sublime examples of the master artist’s work are everywhere. The people out here are old school salt of the earth. Cowboys get along with Indians, bikers get along with hippies, liberals with conservatives. Its a place, as my venerated 77 year old neighbor once said to me, “everybody knows everybody’s business but minds their own.” People are kind and polite, willing to help a stranger.

The down side of Arizona is Maricopa county, or as we call it out here, “the late great state of Maricopa,” which is Phoenix and the metro areas surrounding the capitol. The geographic area is roughly ten percent of the land mass but over sixty percent of the human population. This creeping concrete jungle is dependent on the good grace of the rest of the state for its water and power.

As of late it seems this mini metropolis has been infected with the Soros self destructing ideals of wholly owned politicians, defective voting machines, and a spike in immigrants from places where we can’t even say their names. There is a mountain of circumstantial evidence that Maricopa county is compromised as far as elections go. Do you really believe that Sheriff Arpio lost the election to a cop who has always been pro illegal immigration? Or that local reported irregularities, in mainly democrat controlled precincts, somehow did not favor the Soros-Obama machine. I know, fake news right?

I have some pretty vivid memories of growing up in Arizona. We were still part of the wild west, all our roads and days seemed to stretch before us beyond the vast horizon. America still seemed on the ascendancy even though looking back we had probably reached our peak years before my birth. Even after watching in horror as we bugged out of Saigon and dumped our helicopters into the bottom of the ocean we still believed in hero’s.

In the early 1980’s the people of Arizona were sold on the heroism of John Sydney McCain. McCain moved to Arizona and was sold as a hero. The powers that be needed him to replace a genuine hero, Sen Barry Goldwater. Had we the people known at that time about his multiple affairs, divorcing his disabled wife, and marrying a beer heiress for her fortune and political connections, he would have never won his first race. The people of Maricopa county at that time were not soft shoe, plaid pants, neo cucks like the majority are today.

I will never forget McCain speaking to my high school during his first campaign. After his little speech it was opened up for questions. Most were along the lines of ‘do you like Coke or Pepsi best?’or some other inanities. When my turn came I stood up and asked “Will you give us your word as an officer and a gentleman that you are not now or will never be a member of the trilateral commission or any other organization which gives away American sovereignty?”(I was a political junkie even as a kid.) After being somewhat stunned at the question his answer was along the line of ‘Of course I would never do anything that goes against the constitution’ yada, yada, yada.

If McCain was ever a maverick looking out for the peoples’ interests this illusion came to an end once he went to the senate. He immediately started to hang out with some of the earliest known swamp creatures. Receiving over one million dollars from land swindlers who cost taxpayers over three billion dollars (in 1980’s dollars) in what many experts claim led the southwest United States into a major recession. It also cost thousands of retires their life savings which they thought were safe in real estate backed bonds. This was the beginning of the long swath of destruction that the not so honorable gentleman from Virginia continues to leave in his wake, without a clue (or a care) for the people of this world he harms.

Doddering old fool or criminally insane madman?

Insanity or madness can be described as becoming a danger to oneself or others. We can certainly prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that McCain is a danger to others. Just ask the relatives of the tens of thousands dead from the endless wars, or the relatives of the 6000 plus American KIAs in the last fifteen years. As far as being a danger to himself we may never know unless and until some brave hacker shows us how John spends his spare time. McCain has done America dirty in so many ways over the decades. We need an encyclopedia to document it all. So we will just go over some of the more egregious recent examples.

During the last government shut down Obama closed memorials and parks that belong to we the people. This was done as a mean spirited, vindictive maneuver that especially hurt WW2 vets coming to DC to see the new memorial dedicated to them. These men, who are almost all gone, were denied what to them what would have been a great honor. Some lowly park rangers put up puny little show gates for the media, that denied access to the veterans. Despite his office being hammered with calls telling him to fix this, McCain refused to do the honorable thing. He did nothing. He couldn’t be bothered. Had he shown up and demanded the veterans be allowed in he would have done a thing of a truly non partisan nature, and in some ways been heroic. Now the stain of this incident will follow him the rest of his days.

The Phoenix VA is the worst in the country. As the senior Senator on the Armed Services Committee, McCain bears full responsibility for this. Again if he had acted as an honorable man, made sure more people were fired not just given their golden government parachutes we might be going in the right direction to fix this deplorable situation. It has been 6 to 12 years (depending on your perspective) since the problems with the VA began to come to light. The waiting lists still exist. Men and women who picked up the phone when Uncle Sam called them up are still second fiddle to a self feeding, self promoting parasitic bureaucracy.

It is well documented that McCain and his little buddy have armed and funded ISIS. Many pictures of them exist yucking it up with those who would do us harm. As if we didn’t have enough enemies already it seems we need more. All in the name of full spectrum dominance by our deep state uni-party.

Presently McCain is trying to force us into an unnecessary confrontation with the Russian federation. McCain also wants war with China, North Korea, Syria, Iran, and Ukraine. McCain seems to have no concern, compassion or remorse for the tens of thousands of deaths he has been responsible for. This madness has gotten out of hand. It has created an endless loop of more death, destruction, collateral damage, and rapefuges. Throw in some reconstruction projects for his cronies a little global insecurity and a dash of ignominy on our once highly esteemed fighting forces and it becomes clear why the whole world hates us.

In light of McCain’s 35 years of “service,” after 16 years and over 6,000 military deaths from these endless wars, it might just be time to rethink our strategy. If the New York Don can keep landing blows against the fake media, as he wins a few more hearts and minds, at some point the governor of the universe may once again see America as worthy of the eternal blessings of liberty, then divine providence will enable us to smite this vile depravity known as the deep state uni-party.

McCain needs to go to all 152 homes in Arizona who have lost loved ones in the endless wars. Starting at my friends house, his 22 year old son was killed by an IED near Taji Iraq in 2006.McCain should kneel and grovel in each darkened doorway with his face down buns up, begging forgiveness from the families of his victims.

Seriously dude 35 years is a long time. Any “good work’ you might have done at one time has long since been nullified by the endless war years. If you haven’t achieved whatever it was you originally set out to do, at 80 years old you never will.. If you haven’t amassed all the filthy lucre your family will need after your gone I am afraid you are out of luck.

From Centinel2012, A lot of Nam vets don’t think McCain is a hero — he has been very good at covering his questionable past; E.G why is his nick name “songbird?”

Deutsche Bank: “The Probability Of A Negative Shock Is High”


Tyler Durden's picture

For the second week in a row, Deutsche Bank’s strategist Parag Thatte has a somewhat conflicted message for the bank’s clients: on one hand, he writes that positive economic surprises continue “but are getting less so”, and although the divergence between har data surprises and sentiment is diminishing the bank is somewhat confident that a “pullback in the very near term is unlikely” (here DB disagrees with Goldman Sachs). However, Thatte is increasingly hedging, and notes that because a “rally without a 3-5% sell-off that is typical every 2-3 months is now running over 4 months and is in the top 10% of such rallies by duration”, he cautions that “the probability of seeing a negative shock is high” especially since Q1 buyback blackout period has begun.

Here are the key observations from the Deutsche Bank strategist:

  • The equity market rally has been going uninterrupted for a long time, driven by the unusual resurgence of positive data surprises. Strong data surprises drove equity inflows and fund positioning, adding to the steady support from buybacks. An expectation that positive data surprises were likely to persist underpinned DB’s call 2 weeks ago that a pullback was unlikely in the very near term. The bank takes stock of the current situation below:
  • Duration of rally now in top 10%. The rally without a 3-5% sell-off that is typical every 2-3 months is now running over 4 months and is in the top 10% of such rallies by duration.

  • Data surprises positive but getting less so. While incoming data in the last week has continued to surprise to the upside relative to consensus, it has done so at a more modest rate and DB’s data surprises index, the MAPI, is now declining off its highs.

  • Divergence between sentiment and hard data surprises diminishing. Attention has focused on the divergence between sentiment data which has run up strongly and hard data which has so far lagged. In terms of surprises, i.e., relative to what’s priced into consensus forecasts, hard data surprises have fallen back to neutral over the last two weeks, while sentiment surprises have declined this week but remain elevated. The surge in sentiment data is getting built into consensus forecasts and sentiment surprises also moving down to neutral over the next 3-4 weeks.

  • Fund positioning already trimmed in line with neutral hard data surprises. US funds have already been trimming equity exposure for the last three weeks in line with the decline in hard data surprises suggesting funds may already be anticipating a modest slowdown in overall data. Real money equity mutual funds are already close to neutral but asset allocation funds and long-short equity hedge funds are still overweight. Macro hedge funds are exposed to short rates positions in our view, not long equities.

  • Inflows accelerate. The pace of US equity fund inflows has accelerated over the last 4 weeks ($36bn). However flows have been closely tied to overall data surprises and could start to moderate in turn.

  • Buyback blackout period has begun. Heading into the Q1 earnings season, the pace of buybacks will slow as an increasing number of companies enter earnings blackout periods starting this week.

* * *

DB’s summary take on near-term equity moves:

Continued muddle through most likely in the near term. The fundamental drivers as well as demand-supply considerations for equities point to a continued muddle through in the near term. However history suggests that with the duration of the rally already in the top 10% by duration, the probability of seeing a negative shock is high. But the medium term outlook remains robust with the unfolding growth rebound having plenty of legs while from a demand-supply point of view flow under-allocations to US equities and robust buybacks remain very supportive.

* * *

Away from equities, the picture in rates, commodities and currencies based on trader flows is as follows:

  • Oil falls but still expensive and long positioning still elevated. Following the November OPEC supply-cut announcement oil prices became very expensive on our medium term valuation framework for oil and commodities based on the trade-weighted dollar and global growth (Trading The Commodity Underperformance Cycle, Apr 2013). The decline in oil prices over the last two weeks has trimmed the extent of overvaluation but leaves oil prices slightly above the upper-end of the historical 30% overvaluation band which has marked extremes (currently $48). Net long positions are off of recent record highs but remain quite elevated.
  • Extreme short positions remain an overhang for rates moving up. Bond yields fell sharply after the rate hike this week much like they did after the December one. While real money bond funds remained close to neutral going into the FOMC this week, leveraged funds shorts in bond futures remained near extreme highs. Outside of HY funds which saw a large outflow as oil prices fell this week, bond funds have continued to receive robust inflows. Indeed duration sensitive funds have this year completely recouped all of the outflows seen in the aftermath of the elections.
  • Gold valuations stretched again. Gold prices have rallied on the back of a return of inflows into gold funds this year reversing the modest outflows in Q4. Massive cumulative inflows since early 2016 ($40bn) remain an overhang. Gold longs had been declining heading into the FOMC meeting. Gold prices have again disconnected sharply to the upside from the historical drivers of the dollar and the 10y yield as well as global growth. Copper long positions continued to slide for a 6th straight week.

  • Shorts in the Mexican peso, the best performing currency this year, have collapsed to neutral. Mexican peso shorts fell sharply last week to the lowest levels in over 15 months as gross shorts fell sharply while longs also rose. Aggregate long dollar positions had been rising going into the FOMC meeting reflecting rising shorts in the yen and sterling even as euro shorts were pared.

Why Do Leftists And Globalists Hate Tribalism So Much?


They the globalists/New Word Order/One World Government believe that can create a Utopia with them on the top managing/ruling the entire world. The problem is that it isn’t possible to do that no matter who was trying.

After Creating Chaos For Brand Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz Steps Down – Preparing For 2020 White House Bid?…


Source: After Creating Chaos For Brand Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz Steps Down – Preparing For 2020 White House Bid?…

EXCLUSIVE! New NSA Whistblower Goes Public About Trump Surveillance


Published on Mar 19, 2017

This video gives you everything you need to know about how Donald Trump was surveilled by Barack Obama.