The Dow & Volatility


With the CBOE Volatility Index (STOXX: .VIX) at its lowest level in over 10 years, many people call this the fear gauge and are concerned that people have become complacent. The VIX, is by no means a perfect measure of overall fear in the market. How we measure volatility depends upon the formula. Here are just three indicators of volatility each measured differently (1) internal being the different between the high and low of that session, (2) the close to close degree of volatility, and then (3) overnight volatility which is measured from the day’s close to the next day’s open.

The VIX is not a perfect indicator and it is different from how we look at volatility. You can see here that we ran our Internal Volatility measurement on the VIX and the low was January 2012. Here is the comparison on the Dow so you can see where the VIX low took place whereas our Internal Volatility has declined since that period of time.

The biggest risk to volatility going forward was Trump’s dismissal of Comey. This could now act as a battle cry to stop his tax reform – very stupid decision.

Trump Fires Comey – Right Decision – Wrong Timing


Trump fired Comey who was the head of the FBI. Trump said he fired Comey for his handling of an election-year email scandal involving then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. This is a perfectly valid argument, but he should have done that some time ago. Removing Comey now has only raised suspicions among Democrats and the Republic Elite who both want to stop Trump from really reforming anything for they like their perks as is. Worse still, this was a stupid decision that may now put in jeopardy his whole tax reform.

The timing of this is really bad when it is the FBI probe that is involving Russia and the claims that his people were in contact with Putin. Some Democrats compared this move to the “Saturday Night Massacre” of 1973, when President Richard Nixon fired an independent special prosecutor investigating the Watergate scandal.

Trump should have had better judgment in this matter. I question his real motives because he had plenty of time to fire Comey and should have done so for his whitewash of Hillary. Moreover, Comey was the Assistant US Attorney in the Southern District of New York – the most corrupt judicial post in the nation. Comey always did his part in protecting the bankers. His whitewash of Hillary was interlinked with that position and should have been questioned long ago.

Nevertheless, this raises concerns about Trump’s political advisers. Are they really this stupi

Macron to Hand All Sovereignty to Brussels


Emmanuel Macron’s victory promises no change for Europe and it has been the blessing Brussels wanted so badly to further advance the federalization of Europe. Macron will surrender far more French sovereignty to Brussels than anyone suspects. Macron is a technocrat and the youngest President in France ever at 39. His message of surrendering the sovereignty of France was the subtle use at his rally in Paris of the European anthem, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” rather than the Marseillaise. This was indeed a powerful gesture of a surrender to Brussels that will be full and complete. It also signal there will be no change in direction or reform.

The New York Times called the defeat of Marine Le Pen, was a battle against the evil forces of “xenophobic nationalism exploited by President Donald Trump.” They also reported that this is the end of populism as expected for they classified BREXIT as “Britain’s dismal decision last year to leave the European Union, and in the face of Trump’s woeful anti-European ignorance, was critical” to Macron’s victory. It is just stunning how the New York Times cheers on the EU and socialism yet never looks at the data to see if they are correct in pronouncing that the EU has created growth rather than destroyed it.

The New York Times and their biased position will NEVER bother to just look at the numbers. GDP growth in Britain peaked in 1973 and has declined ever since joining the EU. So what’s the problem? Are the people at the New York Times blind, stupid, the party idiot, or just too corrupt to be objective?

If Macron was in the USA, they would be calling for the prosecution of his wife as a child molester. They met when he was 15 years old and she was his high school teacher at 40 years old. When his parents found out he was romantically involved with his teacher when she was still married to the father of her three children. His were so stunned, they removed their teen son from the school and sent him to finish his education in Paris. Now he is the leader of France.

Secretary Tillerson Welcomes Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov To State Dept…


Earlier today, following a brief visit to the White House, Secretary Rex Tillerson welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to the State Department.

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STATE DEPT – “I want to welcome Foreign Minister Lavrov to the State Department and express my appreciation for him making the trip to Washington so that we can continue our dialogue and our exchange of views that began in Moscow with the dialogue he hosted on a very broad range of topics. Thank you.”

~ Secretary Rex Tillerson

Again, the multidimensional politics of how President Trump utilized the leverage of Comey’s firing to diffuse the toxic antagonism with the Russian relationship is so far beyond diplomatic history making – modern historians have not yet been born who can aptly outline its consequence.

♦ President Trump stroked the Chinese Panda perfectly in Mar-a-lago.
♦ Today President Trump tickled the Russian Bear.
♦ We have already seen the jaw-dropping benefits from the Panda.
♦ Now we get to watch the results from the Bear.

History in our lifetime, and yet the media can’t even fathom the scope and details within the execution of a strategy…. right down to the optics of the tie.

“complicated business folks,… complicated business”

Officials Being Interviewed for Interim FBI Position – With VP Mike Pence Interview…


(Via ABC) U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein are interviewing candidates to take over the FBI as interim director, after James Comey’s firing Tuesday.

Four candidates are being interviewed today, fielded from senior FBI and Justice Department officials and the heads of FBI field offices across the country, according to a Justice Department official.

The four candidates: FBI Executive Assistant Director Paul Abbate, who leads the agency’s cyber and criminal branch; National Counterintelligence Executive William Evanina; Special Agent Adam Lee, who runs the Richmond field office; and Special Agent Michael Anderson, who runs the Chicago field office.

A new FBI director is expected to be chosen and announced within the next 24 to 48 hours.

“The president is in the process of evaluating individuals who will be able to fill that spot, lead the FBI and restore the confidence in the American people,” Vice President Mike Pence said today on Capitol Hill.  (read more)

Watch Vice President Mike Pence:

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Can a Federal Judge Hold You Til you Die in a Civil Case?


QUESTION: I read Zero Hedge on where a Federal Judge Declares Constitution Void, Threatens Civil Defendant With Death. These judges are really out of control. How can they keep someone in a civil case in prison until they die?

ANSWER: Because the Court of Appeals do absolutely NOTHING to defend the citizens in the country, we have judges who are drunk with their power. Appeal courts will NEVER chastise a judge. Very early in my case before there was any contempt, I met with three law firms that were representing me from – New York, New Jersey, and London. Right there in the meeting they were talking about how the receiver Alan Cohen was speaking ex parte with the judge and this is why we will cannot get a fair trial. I said file to recuse the judge! My lawyer at Tenzer Greenblat in New York immediately said – this firm will never file a recusal motion. If we did, our firm would be prejudiced by all the judges in New York. That is why I went pro se. It was clear that law firms have a self-interest and will not defend clients if it will hurt their firm. They sell you down the river destroying our constitutional system. My recommendation is NEVER hire a lawyer from the same town. Their business depends upon the judges in that town so they WILL NEVER defend you if it will harm their business. This only adds to the arrogance of judges.

Anyone who dares to support the justice system deserves to be in a personal lock-up. I met one of the claimed terrorists who had a box cutter on the train in Texas during the 911 incident. The government knew he was innocent so they put him of diesel therapy, which is when they move you to a new prison each day to prevent any lawyers or press from finding you and you cannot make any phone calls in transit. This kid was in the holding cell and inmates told him to ask me for help because I had legal training. He handed me papers they gave him to sign. He was starved. Tortured. You could see all his chest bones for he lost all fat appearing from some famine torn country yet in the care of the American Justice System. I read the the papers they handed him. They said he was waiving all rights to sue the US government in return for him being deported that night. The press knew he was innocent and lawyers were trying to find him as was his family. They wanted to cover it all up and get rid of him before he could tell anyone what they did to him.

The CNN reported after the fact: Ayub Ali Khan and Mohammed Jaweed Azmath were caught in a wave of detentions that began in the days after the September 11 hijackings of four U.S. airliners. “We have not found any ties to 9-11, and it doesn’t look like we’ll be able to do so in the future,” said one source. 

The two men took a flight that day from Newark, New Jersey, which was grounded in St. Louis, Missouri, when the Federal Aviation Administration imposed a nationwide “ground-stop.” Traveling together, the two then boarded a train for San Antonio, Texas.

Police arrested them in Texas during what was called a routine drug sweep of the train.

Authorities say the men were carrying box cutters similar to ones used by the hijackers, $5,600 in cash and hair dye. During a strip search, investigators discovered both men had shaved all their body hair — just as the hijackers had been instructed to do in a so-called “mission manual” left behind by the 19 suspected hijackers.

People often express condolence for what I went through. I was also given the strength to stand unbroken and defy them eye to eye. So in that respect, what I learned and observed from the inside of how these people really treat human beings is an experience that has been absorbed into my character. We learn and progress through life. I survived even their attempt to kill me. I speak out because I can and because that is what they tried to stop. These people are the ultimate definition of evil.

In my case, to stop me from going to trial and to look at all my defense papers, they threw me into solitary confinement, took all my legal papers, told me if I wanted to go to trial it would be with absolutely nothing. After reviewing my defense, they came and admitted they did not want to go to trial. They knew I would call all the bankers to the stand and I have a very good memory. You can take my research, but that does not erase it from my mind. I would interrogate them and expose every manipulation in a public forum and their greatest fear was (1) I knew the financial system, and (2) I knew the law. That was a deadly combination they could not overcome if they wanted to protect the bankers.

The compromise was finally they wrote the script I was to read as any hostage held by some terrorist. Constitutionally, if you plead you are supposed to do it in your own words and the judge is supposed to make sure it is not coerced. This was completely illegal, but nobody does anything.

I refused to plead to any pretend conspiracy so the compromise was I failed to tell my clients the bank stole the money when I learned on Friday and went to my lawyers Monday morning. They said I should have told all institutions over the weekend the bank stole the money even if I was not 100% sure of the outcome and they might return it.

I had resolved myself that I would simply die in prison indefinitely. You come to peace with that decision and look forward to not waking up one day. You are in the hands of the most ruthless judicial system in the world, which has no checks and balances whatsoever. It is like you are in some B-Movie of some corrupt Banana Republic – but you are in the United States. I self-surrendered because I thought it would show you are willing to stand trial. Then my lawyer Richard Altman tells me, you should have fled to Britain and then you would get an extradition hearing. The US government would have to actually put on a case to show evidence that if committed something.

The government tried to kill me after the plea but before sentencing. They left one inmate’s door unlocked as they did mine. I was taken to the hospital in a coma for a few days, but survived to their dismay. I have no compassion for anyone who works in the Justice Department and would never hire a lawyer who ever worked for the government. There is nothing these people will not do to win. You have zero rights and they will kill you and go celebrate at dinner afterwards. You cannot possibly image the type of people who gravitate to these positions. I believe they are the kids who tortures cats and dogs for fun

If the Majority Must Always Be Wrong – Can that Ever Change?


QUESTION: I find it interesting that you say the majority must always be wrong. I read Kenneth Rogoff’s comment on Davos and how the predictions there are always wrong. Do you think this can ever change or is it just how it works?

ANSWER: Yes, I reported on that comment by Rogoff. The MAJORITY must always be wrong for they are the fuel that moves markets as well as politics. I have been stating persistently that the Dow cannot “C R A S H” when the majority are bearish and retail participation is at historic lows. The question you pose is a very interesting one indeed.

I would have  to say NO. I do not believe that can ever change. Human nature is such that it never changes throughout the centuries. The issues may change with technology, but human responses will always be the same. A mother still cries for her son lost in war today as she did in ancient times.

What I do believe is we each have our own cycle. We progress through this journey of life hopefully learning from our mistakes. We buy the high and sell the low when we begin following the crowd. As we learn and progress with age, we end up being the person who sells the high to the novice just entering the cycle.

The best we can do is learn and survive ourselves. I do not believe we can change human nature. That is the same reason why Communism failed. It is also why politicians become corrupt. It’s too tempting for them, which is why they cannot stand Trump. He cannot be bought. No amount of money will change his life style of that of his family. It’s now all about accomplishment and being remembered.

 

Vancouver Real Estate Forecast – Regulation & Currency


QUESTION: I am new to your services. I purchased the Canadian report on the property markets. I am fascinated by your ability to forecast so many events. I understand it is the computer for sure and no individual has the time to forecast so many markets all the time. It appears your forecast on the real estate in Vancouver was right on target. Am I correct in assuming this was caused by the regulation changes and the trend in the US dollar?

Thank you

DK

ANSWER: Yes to regulation and the dollar. The Savings & Loan (S&L) Crisis in the 1980s was caused by a change in tax code whereby the US Congress wanted to tax the rich so they changed the tax credits in real estate. They took a bull market and turned it into a one-way sellers’ market with no bid. They had to order S&Ls to lend into the real estate market. So when the real estate market collapsed, they then blamed the S&L and went to even criminally prosecute directors. I provided the warning to members of Congress what would happen if they changed the tax code. Of course, they ignored the warning and the crisis unfolded as any person with common sense would have expected.

Charles Humphrey Keating, Jr. (1923–2014) operated the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association in Irvine California. When Lincoln Savings & Loan failed in 1989, it cost the federal government over $3 billion and about 23,000 customers were left with worthless bonds. The government, which caused the fail, then criminally charged Keating and of course they convicted him. The argument was he KNEW he would fail 7 years in advance so the bonds he sold he KNEW he would default on making it a crime. He served four and a half years in prison before those convictions were overturned in 1996. The theory of that case was absurd. I have never encountered the head of any company that was major where the director knew the company would fail 7 years in advance. The government made Keating the scapegoat for whole S&L Crisis Congress created.

Today, just add to this the Vancouver real estate market the trend in China trying to stop the outflow of cash that has been pouring out of the country. If you change the capital flows, you change the markets.

It’s not hard to put this together as long as you keep a global view and an understanding of history and how it unfolds for government is typically the source of all economic crisis. Politicians are absolutely clueless. The regulation changes in the property market in London set in motion the collapse in values there as well and in Australia they even outlawed foreigners from buying real estate.

Bitcoin Soars Over $1700 – 2017’s Best-Performing Currency


Tyler Durden's picture

Bitcoin is now up for 16 of the last 18 days, soaring over 50% in the last month and up almost 90% in 2017 – making its the year’s best performing currency.

There appears to be no specitic catalyst for today’s move as the surge in Japanese interest (as we detailed here) and news that Russia is considering, like Japan just did, to allow cryptocurrencies as a legal payment method are outweighing fears over ‘hard forks’, SEC rejections, and Chinese crackdowns.

 

One wonders whether this ‘spurious’ correlation has anything to do with Bitcoin’s rise – as Venezuela’s black market Bolivar plunges into hyperinflationary collapse, non-fiat currencies are bid…

We summarized the ongoing bitcoin frenzy as follows last week: “just as the Chinese bubble frenzy in bitcoin is fading, it may be replaced with a new one, in which thousands of Mrs. Watanabe traders shift their attention away from the FX market and toward digital currencies” and added that “If the transition is seamless, there is no telling just how far this particular bubble can grow.”

Five days later and $250 dollar higher, we are observing first hand how accurate this prediction may have been, although like last week, we have no way of telling how long this particular mania phase will last

President Trump Announces Third Wave of Federal Judicial Nominations…


[ Via White House ] President Donald J. Trump today announced his third wave of Federal judicial appointments. These appointments follow the successful nomination and confirmation of Justice Neil M. Gorsuch to the Supreme Court of the United States and the nomination of Judge Amul R. Thapar of Kentucky to serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. Specifically, the President today announced his nomination of these individuals to the following Federal judgeships.

♦ If confirmed, Amy Coney Barrett of Indiana will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. Amy Coney Barrett currently serves as the Diane and M.O. Miller II Research Professor of Law at the Notre Dame University Law School. Professor Barrett teaches and researches in the areas of federal courts, constitutional law, and statutory interpretation—publishing scholarship in leading legal journals, such as the Columbia, Virginia, and Texas Law Reviews. Before joining the Notre Dame faculty, Professor Barrett clerked for Associate Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge Laurence H. Silberman of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Following her clerkships, as an associate at Miller, Cassidy, Larroca & Lewin in Washington, D.C., she litigated constitutional, criminal, and commercial cases in both trial and appellate courts. Professor Barrett has also served as a visiting associate professor and John M. Olin Fellow in Law at the George Washington University Law School, and as a visiting associate professor of law at the University of Virginia. Professor Barrett received her B.A. in English literature, magna cum laude, from Rhodes College, and her J.D., summa cum laude, from the Notre Dame University Law School, where she served as Executive Editor of the Notre Dame Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, John K. Bush of Kentucky will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. John Bush is currently a partner in the Louisville office of Bingham Greenebaum Doll LLP and is Co-Chair of the firm’s Litigation Department. Mr. Bush practices in complex litigation, including antitrust, securities, financial institutions, insurance, intellectual property, and product liability disputes. He has extensive litigation experience in state and Federal courts in many jurisdictions and in arbitration proceedings. Before joining Bingham Greenebaum Doll LLP, Mr. Bush practiced law at Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher LLP in Washington, D.C. Earlier in his career, Mr. Bush clerked for Judge J. Smith Henley of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. Mr. Bush received his B.A., summa cum laude, from Vanderbilt University and his J.D., cum laude, from Harvard Law School.

♦ If confirmed, Joan L. Larsen of Michigan will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. Justice Joan Larsen currently serves as the 111th Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court. Justice Larsen was appointed to the Court in 2015, and was then elected to that Court by the people of Michigan in 2016—winning every county in the state. Before assuming office, Justice Larsen served on the faculty of the University of Michigan Law School, where she was also special counsel to the Dean. An award-winning legal scholar, Justice Larsen taught for more than a decade at the University of Michigan, where she received the L. Hart Wright Award for Excellence in Teaching. Before joining the University of Michigan faculty, Justice Larsen clerked for Associate Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge David B. Sentelle of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Justice Larsen received her B.A. from the University of Northern Iowa and her J.D. from Northwestern University Law School, from which she graduated first in her class and where she served as an Articles Editor on the Northwestern University Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, Kevin C. Newsom of Alabama will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit. Mr. Newsom is currently the chair of the appellate group at Bradley Arant Boult Cummings, resident in the firm’s Birmingham office. Before joining Bradley, Mr. Newsom served as the Solicitor General of Alabama, where he directed the State’s litigation before the Supreme Court of the United States, the United States Courts of Appeals, and the Alabama Supreme Court. Mr. Newsom has argued four cases in the Supreme Court of the United States and has argued more than 35 cases in the United States Courts of Appeals for the Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Tenth, and Eleventh, and D.C. Circuits, as well as in state supreme and appellate courts and a Native American tribal appellate court. In addition to this service, Chief Justice John Roberts has twice appointed Mr. Newsom to the Advisory Committee on Appellate Rules, which advises the Judicial Conference of the United States concerning amendments and improvements in the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure. Earlier in his career, Mr. Newsom clerked for Associate Justice David Souter of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge Diarmuid O’Scannlain of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Mr. Newsom received his B.A., summa cum laude, from Samford University, and his J.D., magna cum laude, from Harvard Law School, where he served as an Articles Editor on the Harvard Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, David R. Stras will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. Justice David Stras currently serves as a Justice on the Minnesota Supreme Court. Justice Stras was appointed to the Court in 2010. Before his appointment to the Minnesota Supreme Court, Justice Stras was a professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, while also serving as counsel at the Minneapolis law firm of Faegre & Benson. Earlier in his career, Justice Stras clerked for Associate Justice Clarence Thomas of the Supreme Court of the United States, Judge J. Michael Luttig of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, and for Judge Melvin Brunetti of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Justice Stras received his B.A. with highest distinction from the University of Kansas, his M.B.A. from the University of Kansas, and his J.D. from the University of Kansas School of Law, where he served as editor-in-chief of the Criminal Procedure Edition of the Kansas Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, David C. Nye of Idaho will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Idaho. Judge David C. Nye currently serves as an Idaho trial court judge in Pocatello, Idaho. Judge Nye was appointed to the state trial court in 2007 and was reelected by the people of Idaho to that position in 2010 and 2014. Previously, Judge Nye was a partner at Merrill & Merrill, Chartered, in Pocatello, Idaho. Judge Nye received his B.A. and his J.D. from Brigham Young University.

♦ If confirmed, Scott L. Palk of Oklahoma will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Oklahoma. Scott Palk currently serves as the Assistant Dean for Students and Assistant General Counsel at the University of Oklahoma College of Law in Norman, Oklahoma—a position he has held since 2011. Mr. Palk took this position after 19 years of public service as a state and Federal prosecutor, where he worked on death penalty, organized crime, and terrorism cases. Mr. Palk earned his undergraduate degree in Business Administration from Oklahoma State University and his J.D. from the University of Oklahoma College of Law.

♦ If confirmed, Damien M. Schiff of California will serve as a Judge on the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Damien Schiff is currently a Senior Attorney at the Pacific Legal Foundation, a non-profit legal organization based in Sacramento, California. Mr. Schiff has extensive experience litigating cases concerning a variety of Federal and state environmental and land-use issues, including Sackett v. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, a groundbreaking decision in which the United States Supreme Court upheld the right of landowners to challenge Clean Water Act compliance orders issued by the Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier in his career, Mr. Schiff clerked for Judge Victor J. Wolski of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Mr. Schiff received his B.A., magna cum laude, from Georgetown and his J.D., magna cum laude, from the University of San Diego School of Law in 2004.

President Donald J. Trump Announces Intent to Nominate Judicial Candidates

The President today announced his intent to nominate of these individuals to the following Federal judgeships.

♦ If confirmed, Dabney L. Friedrich of Washington, D.C., will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Dabney Friedrich has a lengthy career of distinguished public service. Most recently, Ms. Friedrich served as a Commissioner on the United States Sentencing Commission, where she established sentencing policies and practices for the Federal criminal justice system by promulgating guidelines for congressional review and recommending changes in criminal statutes. Prior to that service, Ms. Friedrich served as an Associate Counsel to the President during the George W. Bush Administration, as Chief Crime Counsel to Senator Orrin G. Hatch, as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia, as a trial attorney at the Department of Justice, and as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of California. Before holding those positions, Ms. Friedrich clerked for Judge Thomas F. Hogan of the District of Columbia District Court. Ms. Friedrich received her B.A., magna cum laude, from Trinity University, her Diploma in Legal Studies from Oxford University, and her J.D. from Yale Law School, where she served as a Senior Editor on the Yale Journal on Regulation.

♦ If confirmed, Terry F. Moorer of Alabama will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Alabama. Judge Terry F. Moorer currently serves as a Magistrate Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Alabama, a position he assumed in 2007. Before assuming his judgeship, Judge Moorer served as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Middle District of Alabama, as a Command Judge Advocate in Camp Arifjan, Kuwait, and as an attorney in the Office of Staff Judge Advocate in Fort Rucker, Alabama. Judge Moorer earned his Associate of Arts from the Marion Military Institute, his B.A. from Huntington College, and his J.D. from the University of Alabama Farrah School of Law.

(White House Link)