Monthly Archives: May 2019

May 18 2019

The Unprecedented Equality of the 21st Century


Published on Aug 7, 2017

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The rich get richer, and the poor get … cell phones, cars, and nice TVs? Prof. Mike Munger says we’re actually more equal than ever. Full interview here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FlQ1… SUBSCRIBE: http://bit.ly/2dUx6wg LEARN MORE: Debate: Is There Too Much Inequality in America? (video): The question of income inequality has become a key issue in contemporary politics. The Institute for Humane Studies asked two professors– Prof. Steve Horwitz, economist at St. Lawrence University, and Prof. Jeffrey Reiman, philosopher at American University- to answer questions about wealth, fairness, and inequality in the United States. This is their debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p047t… Income Inequality and the Effects of Globalization (video): Income inequality in America is a serious issue. People are worried about a widening gap between the rich and the poor in the United States. But is the global story the same? Professor Tyler Cowen explains how globally, income inequality worldwide is on the decline. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ja15p… How to Fight Global Poverty (video): Have you heard the news? The number of people living in abject poverty—defined as living on less than $1.25 per day—has been halved since 1990. How did that happen? Prof. Stephen Davies explains that extreme poverty has been on the decline in part because two of the world’s most populous countries, China and India, have embarked on a path of economic liberalization and development over the past two to three decades. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzmxQ…
May 18 2019

5 Inequality Myths


Published on Oct 2, 2017

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If you really want to understand how the world works today, you need to rethink almost everything you’ve been told about inequality. Prof. Antony Davies explains.
May 18 2019

Mini-AOC


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted May 18, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

 

May 18 2019

“Strategery” – President Trump Instructs Ross and Lighthizer to Focus on Auto Sector….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 17, 2019 by 

Further evidence there will be no further engagement with China surfaces in an announced specific shift in directive from President Trump today focusing Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and USTR Lighthizer on a sector, not a specific nation.

The auto industry is the key sector on two specific trade fronts: the EU trade reset and the ongoing negotiations with Japan.  Both trade agreements center heavily on the auto-sector; and both Japan and the EU have cemented intransigent trade positions.

Enter President Trump to cut the Gordian knot.

It’s a small but important note that President Trump had previously assigned geographic trade responsibilities.  Wilbur Ross has the EU as his primary focus and Robert Lighthizer has authority over Asia.  Today the White House connects the objective of both Ross and Lighthizer as President Trump instructs the U.S. Trade Representative to engage in discussions around the specifics of the auto-sector:

White House – […] Following an extensive review of the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 automobile report, President Trump today issued a proclamation directing the United States Trade Representative to negotiate agreements to address the national security threat, which is causing harm to the American automobile industry. (more)

The President has designated the auto industry as a critical component of national security [More Here].  With Ross’s report in hand, the possibility of increasing tariffs on foreign automobiles is the leverage POTUS gives to Lighthizer along with the mandate to engage.

This sector-specific approach makes buckets of sense when we consider the intransigence of both Japan and the EU on the larger trade issues. [Note: in this example the EU is controlled almost exclusively by Germany and Angela Markel.]  Interestingly, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe knows President Trump as a friend, and they both respect each other immensely as trade and economic strategists.  Merkel, not-so-much.

Prime Minister Abe is a tough adversary for President Trump because it’s like having to negotiate with a brother/competitor who really understands your strategies.

Like Chairman Xi and China, Angela Merkel and the EU is an easier challenge for President Trump.

Trump knows the EU pressure points and he’s pre-constructed the Section 232 review for just this purpose.  Quite simply wherever the German auto-industry goes, so too goes the fortunes of German political leadership.

As a result, unless the EU is going to align with communist China, the EU cannot lose U.S. market access.

Now…

There is a possibility that Germany will force the EU to economically align with China; that is part of the current geopolitical dynamic taking place over the tech industry.  However, PM Shinzo Abe, will never allow the Japanese economy to be held captive to the influence of China.  So each trade partner involved in the auto-sector may diverge on that key issue.

Merkel and the EU may decide manufacturing exports to China are worth more to them than manufacturing exports to the United States.  However, as Trump pummels the Chinese economy, he is also changing the dynamic of possible future benefit within the mind of those constructing the EU economic plan.

A weakened (more poor) China presents a less valuable economy for exported consumer goods.  As China devalues their money to retain export leverage, they simultaneously drive up import costs.  Those German cars become much more expensive and the Chinese consumer won’t be able to afford them.  It’s an interesting dynamic.

There’s always been a good chance that President Trump would apply auto tariffs on the EU in order to leverage trade reciprocity, eliminate non-tariff barriers and protectionism, and simultaneously force Germany to pay for their own NATO defenses.

However, the potential for auto tariffs on Japan has been more singular in focus. Trump wants fair and open access for U.S. agriculture goods as a hedge against China refusing to purchase.  President Trump was always positioning Japanese auto sector tariffs as straight one-for-one leverage toward more exports.  Trump doesn’t look at Abe’s cars as anything other than ordinary leverage toward a traditional trade deal.

Guess what?  Shinzo Abe knows this…

Like I said, it’s like negotiating a better position with your brother as your competitor… he knows your objectives.   Cue the audio visual:

Japan has agreed to lift longstanding restrictions on American beef exports, clearing the way for U.S. products to enter the market regardless of age, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Friday.

The news comes on the heels of other important trade developments on Friday, including the Trump administration’s plans to delay auto tariffs on the EU and Japan and lift steel tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

In 2005, Japan imposed restrictions on cattle over 30 months old for U.S. beef imports in response to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, sometimes known as mad cow disease.

According to the USDA announcement, Japan agreed to remove that age limit for U.S. beef imports. The new terms, which take effect immediately, allow U.S. products from all cattle, regardless of age, to enter Japan for the first time since 2003, the government said.

“This is great news for American ranchers and exporters who now have full access to the Japanese market for their high-quality, safe, wholesome, and delicious U.S. beef,” Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said in a statement. “We are hopeful that Japan’s decision will help lead other markets around the world toward science-based policies.”

American beef sales to Japan topped $2 billion last year, representing approximately one-fourth of all U.S. beef exports. (read more)

Trust me… Grab a Snickers with these two challenging each-other…. it’s gonna be a while.

…Brothers

May 18 2019

President Trump Remarks to National Realtors Association…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 17, 2019 by 

President Trump delivers remarks to the National Association of REALTORS Legislative Meetings and Trade Exposition.

May 18 2019

President Trump Removes Steel and Aluminum Tariffs From Canada and Mexico….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 17, 2019 by 

A combination of the NAFTA “Fatal Flaw” & transnational Chinese shipments, was always at the heart of President Trump placing steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico during negotiations that culminated in the USMCA trade agreement.  The goal was to block China from dumping product into the U.S. through the doors of Canada/Mexico.

Within the USMCA President Trump and Robert Lighthizer placed a specific rule Article 32:10 which grants the U.S. the right to veto (control) Canadian and Mexican purchase agreements with “Non FTA Market Countries”, ie. China.

This Article 32:10 rule is at the core of the USMCA agreement.   However, after the USMCA agreement was reached President Trump kept the Steel/Aluminum tariffs in place.  For those who don’t understand Trump (insert Chrystia Freeland here) the question was always: why?

Quite simply the answer behind the question was President Trump’s retention of leverage. Yes, in 2018 the USMCA was agreed to; however, the USMCA was not ratified by either Canada or Mexico…. it was only an agreement.  Why would Trump remove critical leverage on an initial promise.

Trump is not a politician; he’s a businessman who knows promises are paper until they become action. Additionally, President Trump is a tactician; the tariff leverage was held until such a time as removing it would generate an immediate gain in national compliance toward his trade objective… That’s the action.  Today:

(Bloomberg) President Donald Trump said the U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, boosting efforts to encourage lawmakers to ratify a new North American trade deal.

“I’m pleased to announce that we’ve just reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico and will be selling our product into those countries without the imposition of tariffs or major tariffs,” Trump said at an event Friday. “Hopefully Congress will approve the USMCA quickly.”

In a joint statement Friday, Canada said it will lift retaliatory duties on U.S. products as part of the deal, which will take effect within two days. Mexican Deputy Foreign Minister Jesus Seade, in a Twitter post, welcomed Trump’s removal of the duties. Both nations suggested it would open the way for their lawmakers to approve the new trade pact.

The move will lift the 25% steel and 10% aluminum tariffs the U.S. placed on the two trading neighbors almost a year ago in the name of national security. The decision sparked tit-for-tat duties from Canada and Mexico on U.S. farming goods and other products, and became an obstacle for lawmakers in all three nations to ratifying the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

As part of the agreement, the U.S. will be able to re-impose the tariffs on metals imports if not enough is done to prevent any surge of metals imports beyond historical levels. The nations have also agreed to ramp up efforts to trace where the metals have come from originally, to stop the diversion of shipments from other nations to dodge tariffs.

The enforcement system will aim to advantage primary steel and aluminum producers in the three-nation trading bloc to ensure that the metal is melted, poured or smelted regionally. (read more)

President Trump is strategic.  The timing is perfect as the U.S. has shown the world the administration’s response to China is unrelenting.  As a result of Beijing failing to uphold their end of the prior agreement between Vice-Premier Liu He and USTR Robert Lighthizer, the negotiations with China have stopped.

The consequence of China failing to reach a free, fair and reciprocal trade agreement with the U.S., with strong enforcement mechanisms, means that China remains a “non market-based economy”.  Tariffs against China now increase, and both Canada and Mexico are specifically accountable under the USMCA to retain the U.S. market position toward Chinese goods.

In essence, if Mexico or Canada violates USMCA Article 32:10, they will suffer similar consequences as currently visible toward China.  The U.S. will enforce all the regulatory and compliance verification to ensure that Canada and Mexico do not engage in transnational shipments of Chinese products.  That is the “enforcement system” that both nations will adhere to enjoy the benefits of steel/aluminum tariff removal.

Mark Knoller

✔@markknoller

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The resulting trade dynamic, an inherent lopsided benefit to the U.S, is genuinely brilliant as executed by Trump’s team.  Notice who wins.

President Trump and Secretary Wilbur Ross created the tariffs out of thin air. Yes, they simply created killer trade leverage…  Now, two years later, in exchange, for removing a punishing trade restriction that (A) previously didn’t exist; and (B) was crushing both economies; Canada and Mexico remove all countervailing duties which further opens their markets to U.S. goods…. and, simultaneously, agree to the terms which were at the core of the original demands, intents and purposes of President Trump.

USTR Washington, DC –Today, the United States announced an agreement with Canada and Mexico to remove the Section 232 tariffs for steel and aluminum imports from those countries and for the removal of all retaliatory tariffs imposed on American goods by those countries.  The agreement provides for aggressive monitoring and a mechanism to prevent surges in imports of steel and aluminum.

If surges in imports of specific steel and aluminum products occur, the United States may re-impose Section 232 tariffs on those products. Any retaliation by Canada and Mexico would then be limited to steel and aluminum products.

This agreement is great news for American farmers that have been subject to retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico. At the same time, the Agreement will continue to protect America’s steel and aluminum industries.  (USTR)

Canada and Mexico can no longer broker themselves as back-doors to the U.S. market; and at any given time, if either nation flinches, a future administration can pull out Article 32:10, enforcement entirely in the control of the United States, and POOF insta-leverage.

Don’t forget President Trump’s entire purpose for eliminating NAFTA was to stop Canada and Mexico from exploiting their access to the U.S. market at our expense.  Initially both nations said they would never agree to terms that undercut their independent abilities.  Here we are two years later, and they have agreed to the exact terms that underlined the original foundation of Trump’s position.

President Trump, Secretary Ross and Ambassador Lighthizer took the entire North American business community on a scenic two-year tour deep inside the land of leverage.

Greatest economic President in modern history.

A businessman.

A Titan.

(LINK to Article 32 pdf)

…”Complicated business folks, …complicated business”….

May 18 2019

President Trump Highlights Climbing Arc of Flynn Story…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 17, 2019 by 

CTH noted yesterday that things in/around the Michael Flynn investigation could get very interesting…. not because of what is visible, but rather because of what is likely to surface.

Today, President Trump draws attention to Michael Flynn being under DOJ/FBI investigation during 2016; AND specifically, that candidate Trump and President-elect Trump was never notified of the potential issues:

The backstory issues within the Flynn case may soon surface; so it’s worth a few minutes to describe where this could be heading. Specifically, how a series of data-points are coming together and building toward a strong probability Flynn was under a FISA surveillance warrant during a key part of the 2016 election campaign.

By now everyone is aware General Michael Flynn was under FBI investigation throughout a significant portion of 2016.  There are strong indications Flynn was under surveillance even as far back as early to mid 2015.

Yesterday when Judge Sullivan instructed the DOJ to turn over recordings and transcripts of the Flynn-Kislyak phone call, there was a part of Sullivan’s order that indicated his suspicion there was more than just a singular record of a December 29th, 2016, intercept.

You will note that Judge Sullivan requested: …“and the transcripts of any other audio recordings of Mr. Flynn, including, but not limited to, contacts with Russian officials.”

As many are aware, there is a trail of evidence that suggests, strongly suggests, Flynn was subject to an FBI FISA Title-1 surveillance warrant as a result of his being a target in the 2016 counterintelligence operation.  Now, if there was ongoing FISA-authorized surveillance, think about the problem Judge Sullivan’s request would present to the DOJ.

In essence, the DOJ is required to deliver evidence of more than just the one Flynn-Kislyak call.  As a result of the way Sullivan framed the judicial request, the DOJ would end up having to produce evidence that would outline a time-line of Flynn’s surveillance.  As a problematic consequence the DOJ would be proving a FISA warrant existed.

Guess what happened today…  the Sullivan order was modified:

Taken in combination, here’s what seems likely.

It is a fact Flynn was a target under the pre-existing 2016 counterintelligence operation conducted by the FBI.  The HPSCI report and the Mueller report clearly identify this issue.  This is not in doubt.  It is demonstrably true.  However, what has not yet surfaced is that Flynn was under a FISA Title-1 surveillance warrant during 2016.

It’s likely that during the key election time-frame, the last five months of 2016 (Aug-Dec), a FISA warrant authorized by Judge Rudolph Contreras was present.  The timing here will be important, because it’s almost guaranteed that when President-elect Donald Trump selected Michael Flynn to be his National Security Advisor he had no idea Flynn was under a counterintelligence investigation.

Additionally, there were three FISA applications denied in 2016.  This is exceptionally rare.  It has always looked like the FBI unit was trying to gain surveillance on a key official, possibly Flynn, while getting pushback from the FISA court. {Go Deep} <-IMPORTANT

The stunning evidence of malicious DOJ and FBI political intent would be evident because no-one in the DOJ or FBI informed President-elect Trump his key national security selection was an issue.   This is one big example of what current Attorney General William Barr seems to be indicating.  There is no valid reason why the incoming President would not be notified of the potential compromise and the inherent issues.  This looks like where the arc of the Flynn story is going.  This is what could surface soon.

Remember, on a professional and somewhat personal level, Michael Flynn and Obama’s National Security Advisor Susan Rice were friends.  This angle of Flynn being under Title-1 surveillance would explain why Rice specifically was doing so much unmasking of intelligence information toward the end of 2016.  This is also likely a key part of what Devin Nunes saw at the White House SCIF in March 2017.

I also suspect FBI Director James Comey has made specific notations about the Flynn FISA in his memos.  You might remember in the David Archey declarations to the court, about the Comey memos, he was specific in his late 2017 reasoning why the Comey Memos must remain sealed and redacted:

To this day the FBI is still fighting to keep the Comey memo content hidden and away from public review.

Judge Sullivan has now extended the DOJ deadline for filing a response to his request until May 31st.  It will be very interesting to see exactly what happens.

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With AG William Barr making inquires, and with the FBI’s inability to explain to AG Barr what was going on, the potential for the DOJ and FBI to be in conflict is very real.  We know the disposition to hide information is still inherent within the FBI due to their recent attempts to hide evidence of FBI corruption within the Kavalec State Department memos.

FBI Director Chris Wray, FBI Deputy Director David Bowditch, and more specifically FBI chief legal counsel Dana Boente are in the cross-hairs of these issues.  They, along with the corrupt Washington Field Office FBI investigators, appear to be working against the interests of U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr; and thanks to Judge Sullivan these background schemes and plots are likely to be exposed.

Interesting times….

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May 18 2019

Devin Nunes Discusses “Spygate” and Comments by AG Bill Barr…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 17, 2019 by 

House Intelligence Committee ranking member Devin Nunes appears on Fox News to discuss the current status of investigations/inquiry into corrupt DOJ and FBI activity in the 2016 election.


May 18 2019

Attorney General Bill Barr Gives First Interview (Full Interview)…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 17, 2019 by 

U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr gives his first media interview since taking office.  Bill Hemmer interviews AG Barr in El Salvador on a wide variety of topics.  Fox News has packaged the broadcast interview to begin with questions to the AG about the ongoing “review” of FBI and DOJ conduct in the election, ie “SpyGate”.

The Attorney General explains how the primary aspects under review were conducted by a “small group” at the top of the institutions, and he was surprised to discover no-one had valid answers to his initial inquiry.  The lack of cogent explanation furthered his concerns and led to his decision to appoint a prosecutor, U.S. Attorney John H Durham, to conduct a more thorough review.

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As you can tell the video was edited to run in a specific sequence. If you would prefer to listen to the interview, in its original form, without edits SEE Fox Radio HERE.

May 18 2019

Ratcliffe and Nunes Discuss AG Barr Investigative Approach…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 17, 2019 by 

Interesting interviews by Maria Bartiromo today as she hosted both John Ratcliffe and Devin Nunes to discuss the latest remarks and investigative approach by Attorney General William Barr.

Representative Ratcliffe is one of the few congressional members who has seen the majority of the classified documents which backstop the activity of the DOJ and FBI during the 2016 election.

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Ranking member Devin Nunes also discussed the background with Maria Bartiromo:

.Jim Jordan appears later with Neal Cavuto:

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