Category Globalism -vs- Nationalism

Apr 18 2022

The Hidden Truth Behind War With Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The plot behind Ukraine is far deeper than anyone is willing to talk about publically. Yanukovich was corrupt and his sons were acting like a protection racket. Yanukovich was keen on joining the EU but the treaty had a clause in there that would have put Ukraine in NATO through the backdoor. Ukraine would have to comply will all the rules and regulations of NATO without formally being admitted. Worse still, Ukraine was to trade exclusively with the EU when Russia was its main trading partner and its fuel came from Russia. This was the first attempt by the West to bring Ukraine into NATO.

That is why Yanukovich backed out and that is what began the whole uprising. To appease the protestors, Yanukovich agreed to early elections in nine months. This is where the US Neocons were hard at work to actually see the uprising as an opportunity and they wanted to install their own people. That was all in the leaked phone call of Victoria Nuland.

Zelensky was elected with overwhelming support to create peace which was exactly OPPOSITE of the objectives of the American Neocons. The Ukrainian Nationalists (Nazis) threatened to kill Zelensky if he pushed for peace with Russia. Zelensky did a political flip-flop and yielded to the Nazi movement. Reliable sources insisted that the Nazis threatened to kill Zelensky to prevent any peace with Russia.

Don’t forget McCain and Lesley Graham even addressed the Ukrainian Nazis promising them to support back in December 2016 after Trump was elected, but before he was sworn in. The Neocons were hard at work to ensure that there would be no peace with Russia.

The entire Russiagate has been discredited but we must understand the reality of international relations. Hillary, who is a Neocon and was friends with John McCain to the point he is the one who handed the fraudulent Steel Dossier to James Comey at the FBI, was instrumental in the failed takeover of Russia by the bankers blackmailing Yeltsin and interfering in the 2000 election which brought Putin to power. Hillary clearly concocted the whole theory that Trump was a puppet of Putin. The Neocons even spun the story that Putin was ex-KGB and that meant he wanted to resurrect the old Soviet Union which was also a lie.

With the seriousness of these actions, we are now heading into war over fake news. Obama had refused to provide military aid to Ukraine and the entire Russiagate was to box in Trump who was then advised to provide military weapons to Ukraine to prove he was not a puppet of Putin. It was the Neocons who were trying to push Trump into an eye-to-eye confrontation.

What Kennedy did to the Neocons was reject their advice and in the Cuban Missle Crisis, this resulted in a monumental shift in US-Russian relations. It forced both parties to realize that they needed each other and that confrontation was not the answer. The Neocons disagreed. This probably cost Kennedy his life. I believe the Neocons had him killed and Oswald was hinted that he was somehow connected to Russia. The CIA refused to release the files and the only reason is to hide the fact that the Neocons took out Kennedy.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=0enCCGBW3xc%3Ffeature%3Doembed%26wmode%3Dopaque

Before he died, Robert McNamara (1916 – 2009) was a leading Neocon that pushed the country into the Vietnam war.  He was famous for saying: “I learned early on never answer the question that is asked of you. Answer the question that you wish had been asked of you. And quite frankly, I follow that rule. It’s a very good rule.” McNamara finally admitted that they were wrong particularly in their assessment of Russia as a threat. The perception that Russia is a threat is still dominating the agenda today and there is absolutely no attempt to create world peace.

By creating Russiagate, the main objective was to prevent Trump from working any peace deal with Russia. That was the same objective of McCain and Graham running to Ukraine now that Trump was elected to promise aid to the Ukrainian Nazis to keep up their war against Russians. Can you imagine if the Cuban Missile Crisis took place during the Trump Administration, the Neocons would have been in their glory warning Trump any peace deal would confirm he was just a puppet of Putin. That would have e guaranteed war – not peace. This was the strategic move – a checkmate against Trump seeking peace as did Kennedy.

Reliable sources also claim that the transcript of the phone call between Trump and Zelensky that was used for impeachment was not the full conversation. Trump had assumed that Zelensky was serious about peace and would have supported that decision. But this would have been seen as making Trump the puppet of Putin. This scenario was vital to prevent peace and eventually put the pieces in place for the war that now clouds the horizon.

The DEMONIZING of Trump began to PREVENT world peace and to strip Trump of any ability to reach a peace deal with Russia. Putin did NOT want to reestablish the old Soviet Union, but instead, he saw the rise of China economically and sought to bring Russia into an economic player on the global scale. He wanted to be remembered for being the leader who brought Russia to its economic greatness – not the reestablishment of the USSR which was the dream of Stalin, not Lenin nor Putin.

The image of Trump and Putin had to be manipulated to direct the world into the new political agenda leaving these two leaders who wanted to make their respective nations great again. So far, they have accomplished their goals with strategic cunning and manipulation. To this day, there remain people who are just obsessed with their hatred of Trump. They refuse to come up for air remaining below the surface in the darkness of the depths. To see the plot, they first have to realize that Trump is no longer president and the Neocons will do everything in their power to prevent him from ever running again. That’s what the January 6th hearings are all designed to do – charge him with INSURRECTION to prevent him constitutionally from ever running again. But with that failing, they would more likely than not assassinate him. These people are playing for keeps and they see their goal – the destruction of Russia and China – within their reach.

Apr 17 2022

Media Admits It is Their “Job” To Control What People Think


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Apr 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 17 2022

Armstrong on USA Watchdog April 12th, 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 17 2022

Biden Organizes Special Summit of ASEAN Leaders in Washington DC, May 12-13


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 | Sundance 

The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region including India, comprises a combined population of 1.85 billion people, one-fourth of the global population. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar (Burma), and Laos are included.

As Biden doubles down on a proxy war against Russia in Europe, and given the financial stakes within the western economic sanctions, the global trade cleaving could leave the countries around India with a decision on which financial trade mechanisms they will support.

This is the background for Joe Biden to organize a special summit of ASEAN leaders in Washington, DC, May 12th and 13th.

WHITE HOUSE – President Biden will host the Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Washington, DC on May 12 and 13 for a U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit.

The Special Summit will demonstrate the United States’ enduring commitment to ASEAN, recognizing its central role in delivering sustainable solutions to the region’s most pressing challenges, and commemorate 45 years of U.S.-ASEAN relations.

It will build on President Biden’s participation in the October 2021 U.S.-ASEAN Summit, where the President announced $102 million in new initiatives to expand our engagement with ASEAN on COVID-19 recovery and health security, fighting the climate crisis, stimulating broad-based economic growth, promoting gender equality, and deepening people-to-people ties. 

It is a top priority for the Biden-Harris Administration to serve as a strong, reliable partner in Southeast Asia. Our shared aspirations for the region will continue to underpin our common commitment to advance an Indo-Pacific that is free and open, secure, connected, and resilient. (link)

…”So, well, I told them we needed to focus on cat food for transgender kittens.”

Apr 17 2022

Rule One, Economic Security Is National Security


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 | Sundance

…Rule two, there is no bigger rule than the first rule.

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.”

~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Never has that Machiavelli quote been more apropos than when considering the MAGA movement and the rise of Donald Trump.

Thankfully, we are now in an era when the largest coalition of American voters have awakened to the reality that, to quote the former president: “Economic Security is National Security.”

As we live through the economic mess of a Biden administration hell bent on eroding the middle class of the United States, there are numerous pundits contemplating 2024 Republican presidential candidates other than Donald Trump; consider this group the lukewarm defenders Machiavelli noted.

At the same time the leftist coalition, writ large, are apoplectic about the base of the Republican Party now belonging to Donald Trump.  This group consists of those affluent Wall Street agents and politicians set on retaining the profits derived from decades of institutional objectives.

Institutional Democrats hate Trump, and institutional Republicans are lukewarm, at best, in defending Trump.  Both wings of the DC UniParty fear Trump.  Extreme efforts at control are a reaction to fear.  In this outline, I rise to explain why Donald Trump is the only option for the America First MAGA coalition; and I make my case not on supposition, but on empirical reference points that most should understand.

Everything, is about the economics of it.

If you accept that at its essential core elements the phrase “economic security is national security” is true – meaning the lives of the American citizen, person, worker, individual or family are best when their economic position is secure – then any potential leader for our nation must be able to initiate policies that directly touch the economics of a person’s life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  As a result, economic security and economic policy must be the fulcrum of their platform.

Now, look around and ask yourself this question: “What separated Donald J. Trump from the remaining field of 17 GOP candidates in 2016?”   An honest top-line answer would be immigration (border control), and his views on American economic policy.   In essence, what set Donald Trump apart from all other candidates was his view on the U.S. economy, and that was the driving factor behind ‘Make America Great Again’, MAGA.

Now, look around.  Look at every other potential candidate for political office. Is there another person in the field of your political view who comes from the starting point that economic security is national security?

Put aside all other issues and shiny things that may change from moment to moment as the political winds swirl and settle, and ask yourself that question.  Who can deliver MAGA, if not the central person who lives, eats, sleeps and thinks about U.S. economic security from every angle at every second of every hour of every day.  That’s Donald J. Trump.

Trump knows the extremely consequential sequence of BIG things that lead to a structurally strong American economic foundation.

We don’t have to guess at whether Trump can deliver on that policy sequence, we have reference points.

♦ Donald Trump knew that independent U.S. energy policy was a condition for a strong U.S. economy. He also knew there would be negative consequences to allies and partners if the U.S. energy policy was independent.  Trump knew that OPEC nations in general would be negatively impacted, and he knew that Saudi Arabia specifically would be weakened geopolitically.   That is why the very first foreign trip by Donald Trump was to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States that make up the majority of OPEC.

Look at what President Trump did on that trip.  First, he assured Saudi Arabia that the United States would stand with the Gulf Cooperation Council and Mid-East nations as it pertained to their security.  Trump knew making the largest energy consuming nation independent from foreign oil would be adverse to the economic stability of the Mid-East, and as an outcome, could open a door to destabilization from extremist or ideological groups therein.

Take away top-line economic revenue from Saudi et al, and the leaders of those oil economies have a more difficult time remaining stable and controlling unrest and extremism.  Generations of Arab citizens know nothing other than the trickle down benefits of oil exports.  President Trump knew this, and he approached our need for energy independence by first assuring the Arab states of his commitment to their stability and safety.

President Trump delivered to those states a list of approved arms and defense agreements during that trip.  In essence, what he was doing was putting the promise of security into actual delivery of tools to retain that security.  Actions speak louder than words.  President Trump also promised to work diligently on peace in the region; a real substantive and genuine peace that would provide security in the big picture.

Over the course of the next few years, Trump delivered on that set of promises with the Abraham Accords.   Yes, economic security as national security applies to our allies as well as ourselves.  Again, actions speak louder than words.

With the U.S. energy independence program in place, President Trump then moved in sequence to the next big thing.

♦ Donald Trump moved to face the challenge of China.   A major shift in U.S. policy that is likely considered the biggest geopolitical shift in the last 75 years.  Trump strategically began with Trade Authority 302 national security Steel and Aluminum tariffs at 25% and 10% not only toward China but targeted globally.

The entire multinational system was stunned at the bold step with tariffs.   But remember, before Trump went to Saudi Arabia, he held a meeting with Chairman Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago.  The global trade world was shocked by the tariff announcement, but I’ll bet you a doughnut Chairman Xi was not.

That February 2017 meeting, only one month after his inauguration, was President Trump graciously informing Chairman Xi, in the polite manner that respectful business people do, that a new era in the U.S-China relationship was about to begin.  New trade agreements, new terms and conditions were to be expected in the future.  The tariff announcement hit Wall Street hard, but not Beijing – who knew it was likely.

U.S. financial pundits proclaimed the sky was surely falling.  These tariffs would cause prices to skyrocket, the global order of all things around trade was under attack by Trump.  They waxed and shouted about supply chains being complicated and intertwined amid the modern manufacturing era that was too complex for President Trump to understand with such a heavy handed tariff hammer.   Remember all of that?  Remember how cars were going to cost thousands more, and beer kegs would forever be lost because the orange man had just triggered steel and aluminum tariffs?

Did any of that happen?  No. Of course it didn’t. Actually, the opposite was true and no one could even fathom it.  Communist China first responded by subsidizing all of their industries targeted by the tariffs with free energy and raw materials, etc.  China triggered an immediate reaction to lower their own prices to offset tariffs.  Beijing did not want the heavy industries and factories to start back up again in the U.S, so they reacted with measures to negate the tariff impact.

China’s economy started to feel the pressure and panda was not happy.  Eventually, as the tariffs expanded beyond Steel and Aluminum to other specific segments and categories, China devalued their currency to lower costs even further for U.S. importers.  The net result was something no one could have imagined.  With lower prices, and increased dollar strength, we began importing all Chinese products at cheaper rates than before the tariffs were triggered.  Yes, we began importing deflation.  No one saw that coming…. but Trump did.

While all that initial U.S-China trade shock was taking place, Donald Trump took his next foreign trip to… wait for it…. Southeast Asia.

Just like in the example of the trip to Saudi Arabia, economically-minded Trump told partners and leaders in the export producing countries of Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and ASEAN nations to prepare for additional business and new trade agreements with the U.S., as factories inside China might start to decouple.   Look at how they responded, they did exactly what Trump said would be in their best interests.

To seriously gather the focus of this SE Asia group, President Trump started direct talks with North Korea and Chairman Kim Jong-un for peace and regional stability.  It’s easy to forget just how stunning this was at the time, but generations of people in Asia were jaw-agape at the U.S. President confronting China, engaging with North Korea, and opening his arms to new trade deals with ASEAN partners.

On the world stage of geopolitics and global trade, any one of these moves would be a monumental legacy initiative all by itself.  But together, simultaneously, you can see how the entire continent physically stopped midstride and stood staring at this, this man, this American President, who was just about to step across the Demilitarized Zone in North Korea and shake hands with Chairman Kim…. and, wait for it…. they are smiling.

√ Energy security triggered and friends in Mid-East supported.

√ Mid-East peace initiatives triggered.

√ A return of heavy industry and manufacturing security triggered.

√ A confrontation of Chinese economic influence triggered.

√ Stability between South Korea and North Korea, triggered.

√ New trade deals and economic partnerships with Japan and South Korea, triggered.

And then, as if that was not enough… just as multinational investment groups started realizing they needed to change their outlooks and drop the decades long view of the U.S. as a “service driven economy”… just as they realized they needed to start investing domestically inside the United States for their own growth and financial security… as if all that wasn’t enough… President Trump kicks off an entirely new trade deal and renegotiated standard for all North American trade via NAFTA.

We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can put together a program to ensure Economic Security is National Security.  We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can deliver on economic policy.  We don’t have guess if Trump’s policy platform, proposals and initiatives would be successful.  We have the experience of it.  We have the results of it.  We have felt the success of it.

We also don’t need to guess at who is the best candidate to lead Making America Great Again, we already know who that is.

There is no other 2024 Presidential Candidate, who I am aware of, who could possibly achieve what Donald John Trump has achieved, or who could even fathom contemplating how to achieve a quarter of what President Trump achieved.

Do not tell me Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a better option. DeSantis is an unknown commodity, a blank slate, when it comes to big picture economic outlooks. DeSantis doesn’t have an economic agenda inside his administration from which to contemplate or analyze his economic views.

Governor Ron DeSantis has a lot of really good skills and policies on the domestic front unique to his position in Florida; however, it is not a slight toward him to point out he has never expressed any larger economic proposal that would give any confidence in a national economic policy.

Look at the sum total of it, and there’s so much more that could be outlined to what Donald Trump achieved and could yet still achieve, it’s not even a close question.

And that my friends is exactly why Donald Trump is under relentless attack from both wings of the UniParty in DC.  Additionally, it is clear the Wall Street Republicans are trying to position Ron DeSantis as an alternative to another Trump term.  Look carefully at the current advocates for DeSantis, Nikki Haley and/or Kristi Noem, and you will note every one of those early voices are attached to favorable Wall Street politics and multinational corporate advocacy.

Look at what Donald J. Trump was able to achieve while he was under constant political attack.  Just imagine what Trump 2.0 would deliver.

They, the leftist Democrats and Wall Street Republicans, are yet again absolutely petrified of that.

Apr 17 2022

The Possibility of a Win for Marine Le Pen in France Has EU Worried


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 

One week from tomorrow the presidential election in France will be decided.  Polls put the race between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in a statistical dead heat, and combined with the recent Hungary election outcome – that has many bureaucrats in the EU very twitchy.

No doubt this race would have major ramifications if Marine Le Pen could end up victorious.  Factually, the Western alliance military operation in Ukraine could fundamentally change.  A post-COVID shift toward increased nationalism in France and the European Union would be very problematic for the forward plans of the professional political class and corporate globalists.

ASSOCIATED PRESS – […] If Macron falters in France’s April 24 presidential runoff between the two, the far-right could be at the helm of the European Union, an abhorrent idea to most leaders in the bloc.

Experts say a win for Le Pen would have immense repercussions on the functioning of the EU. Not only would her coming to power damage the democratic values and commercial rules of the bloc, but it would also threaten the EU’s common front and sanctions in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

[…] France has always stood at the heart of the EU — a founding member that has partnered with neighbor and historical rival Germany to turn the bloc into an economic giant and an icon of Western values. … [Le Pen] has proposed removing taxes on hundreds of goods and wants to reduce taxes on fuel — which would go against the EU’s free market rules and efforts to fight climate change.

[…]  Jean-Claude Piris, who served as a legal counsel to the European Council, said a victory for Le Pen would have the effect of an “earthquake.”

“She is in favor of a form of economic patriotism with state aids, which is contrary to the rules of the single market,” Piris told The Associated Press.

“She wants to modify the French constitution by giving preference to the French, by suppressing the right of the soil, the right of asylum,” which would be “totally incompatible with the values of the European treaties,” Piris added. (read more)

There isn’t a ‘splodey head detonation meter big enough to record the sound of the EU eruption if Marine Le Pen stands victorious next Sunday.

Vive le France!

Apr 15 2022

True danger is a nation of citizens who blindly parrot govt propaganda


By Tulsi Gabbard  Published originally on April 14, 2022 

It is not the government’s job to shield us from information—no matter how “dangerous” they claim it to be. The true danger is a nation of citizens who blindly follow and parrot government propaganda instead of looking for and courageously expressing the truth.

Apr 15 2022

Marco Rubio Preparing to Join Biden in Destroying the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The world has gone completely nuts and now even Republican Marco Rubio is drafting legislation to sanction China. Biden’s sanctions have totally destroyed the world economy, bringing globalization and world peace to an abrupt end. I have written to Marco Rubio in response to his Tweet, but I seriously doubt he will ever respond.

“I realize that the chances of this ever being answered are minus zero. I will nonetheless publish this on ArmsatronEconomics.COM. I have advised nations and I have testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. These sanctions on Russia have already destroyed the world economy ending the integrity of the SWIFT system. Sanctions have NEVER worked even one time in history and every president before Biden sought world peace where now all we see is world war III. All of this nonsense has only ensured the end of the United States as the leader of the world economy. Even SWIFT told Obama no way in 2014 would they remove Russia from the system. Now SWIFT has committed suicide and Biden has divided the world economy. This will never return to normal and your proposal to sanction China is insane. In fact, the arrogance of the United States as the policeman of the world has only led to our inevitable demise. SWIFT is no longer the foundation of the world economy and this is ending the economic status of the dollar and the United States. No nation lasts forever and just as the arrogance of Athens led to the Peloponnesian War; we too have become far too arrogant sealing our own fate out of stupidity. Sanction China and you guarantee their alternative to SWIFT and once you terminate the goodwill, then without trade, they no longer have the incentive to participate in the world economy and thus it is no longer a threat to bit the hand that feeds you.”

The European Union’s relations with China have also plunged to unprecedented new lows. The US has also floated these theories with allies in Europe to sanction China, with absolutely ZERO understanding of how the world economy even functions. World peace is established not by threats and a show or nuclear weapons. It is free trade that bound the Roman Empire together where conquered lands found it beneficial economically to be part of the Empire than on the outside, chucking spears across the border. By removing Russia from SWIFT and now threatening China with sanctions, if they dare to allow Russia to use their alternative, all I can say is the United States is doomed. Biden called Putin a war criminal, yet under this theory, President Johnson was a war criminal for the abuse of soldiers in Vietnam. There are allegations of war crimes against Americans from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria for starters. So is Obama also a war criminal? These sorts of allegations GUARANTEE there will be no peace — EVER!

Marco Rubio mentioned that he is mulling legislation to sanction China if it helps Moscow circumvent SWIFT sanctions. Once the trade is severed, there is no incentive to work together. The only thing that then resolves such disputes is war. We are watching India among many nations viewing the arrogance of America as a deterrent and pushing them into the arms of the alternative economy that is forming.

The US has been funding the Ukrainian Civil War because the Neocon hates Russians. They are now poking China and have the audacity to think threatening China with the same sanctions will cause them to fall to their knees and beg for forgiveness. This thinking is absolute lunacy. The American people are TIRED of endless wars. The US has been sending National Guard troops overseas. Reservists and National Guards are being sent overseas because we do not have the troops necessary. These are people who have families — not 18 years boys sent to die. These are also National Guard troops, who are NOT defending the nation, but other people.

Looking closely at the National Guard’s website informs us that it has not one but two missions. The “state mission,” which you remember from your service, is to “provide trained and disciplined forces for domestic emergencies or as otherwise required by law.” There is also a “federal mission” to “maintain properly trained and equipped units available for prompt mobilization for war, national emergency, or as otherwise needed.” We have had National Guard troops overseas in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere being called in on the basis of this federal mission yet it is questionable if that is legal without a declaration of war.

We need to be mindful that our politicians are quick to send people to die with no regard for their families left behind. There seems to be no serious thought about what is taking place, and it is all playing to the sound-bites.

Apr 15 2022

Smart Investor Article (English Translation Provided)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I recently appeared on the cover of “Smart Investor” after being approached by journalist Ralph Malisch. Click here to read the full interview (German).

The English translation is available below:

Smart Investor talks to legendary cycle analyst Martin Armstrong about Corona, war and reshaping the world

Smart Investor: Mr. Armstrong, in 2015, The Forecaster, a powerful film about your life, was released. We interviewed you extensively in Smart Investor 5/2015. How have you been doing in the meantime and what are your current projects?
Armstrong:  I was involved in a sequel to the film that will be out later this year. Otherwise, we have expanded our services and have now launched our computer system, which is the system that the government wanted for itself. It now produces over 1,000 written reports every day all over the world without human intervention. We now use it in over 40 countries, which means we probably have the largest institutional customer base in the world.

Smart Investor 5/2015

Smart Investor: Would you briefly explain your forecasting approach to our readers again?
Armstrong:  In the 1980s and 1990s, I was one of the top international hedge fund managers, even being named hedge fund manager of the year for predicting the collapse of Russia, which triggered the 1998 hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management crisis. During that time, I’d watched global investment capital refocus on markets and then move on—leaving Japan in 1989, Southeast Asia in 1994, and Russia in 1998, followed by the euro. All of this was fueled by capital flows. One can follow these movements of capital and see how they cause the boom-bust cycles around the globe.

Smart Investor: The topic of Corona has kept us under its spell for more than two years. Was this turning point, or a drastic event like this, visible in your cycle model?
Armstrong: Yes, I warned at our own World Economic Conference that if our model flipped in January 2020 (= year 2020.05) the market would crash. We were even able to pinpoint the exact day for the March 2020 bottom. Had an event like Corona happened during an uptrend, it would have been largely ignored. But if something like this happens while the model is turning down, then sentiment is inherently bearish. We also warned that there would be a scarcity-based commodity cycle from January 2020 to 2024.

Smart Investor: In our perception, major pandemics occur with a certain regularity. Have you thought about some kind of plague cycle and how it might continue?
Armstrong: Such epidemics have always existed – but never in history have governments reacted so madly. The global lockdown has cost jobs and created bottlenecks in supply chains that will persist for several years to come. It was an absurd response that was proven wrong and caused a lot more damage. Most people know someone who got sick from COVID but didn’t die from it. Those who died would likely have died from any form of respiratory disease, such as occurs during the annual cycle of influenza. It was not a dangerous plague that killed 30% to 50% of the population like smallpox or the black plague in the 14th century.

Smart Investor: Now a new dominant event has been triggered with the hot war in Ukraine. How does this war fit into your model, specifically the war cycle?
Armstrong: That too came at exactly the “right” time. Our model showed 1/16/2022. Unfortunately, instead of trying to bring peace to the world, the West has demonized Putin. The claim that Putin wanted to restore the old Soviet Union was pure propaganda. For the past 22 years he has made no attempt to restore communism, only calling Lenin himself a communist. He did not try to expand the borders but warned against NATO encroachment. In war, both sides spread propaganda, and it is always important to be objective about the claims of both sides. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was consistent with his warnings and came four days after US Vice President Harris recommended Ukraine join NATO. That was totally irresponsible.

Smart Investor: Can you see in your models which regions or countries will suffer the most in this conflict, who will get off lightly and who will be the beneficiaries?
Armstrong: On both sides there are what we call neocons, people who just hate the other side. They cannot sleep at night as long as their enemy exists. Unfortunately, the deteriorating economic outlook is a reminder that war has often served as a diversionary tactic in the past. It looks like China is allying itself with Russia. I believe the confiscation of Russian private property was a serious violation of international law. Others, too, will realize that their assets could be confiscated if their country got into a dispute with the West. This would, of course, lead to a drop in global investment. It is precisely this process that seems to have started and, according to our models, will only get much worse over the next ten years. Disputes between countries are likely to remain at this level. The arrest of individuals simply because they are Russian is reminiscent of the internment camps for Japanese in the US during World War II solely on the basis of their ethnicity. It is very detrimental to the world economy when free investment is hampered.

Image: © Angelov – stock.adobe.com

Smart Investor: If we understand it correctly, the cycles develop largely independently of the specific actions of individuals. It’s hard to imagine, but would an escalation have been inevitable even if the Russian President hadn’t given the order for the invasion?
Armstrong: That’s right. Demonizing Putin is absurd. There have been far worse leaders in history, like Hitler or Stalin, who could kill millions of people without thinking twice. The development of things is primarily determined by the economy. Normally you don’t bite the hand that feeds you. But imposing sanctions on Russia has exactly the opposite effect: they isolate Russia and sever economic ties, leading to casualties and in turn evoking anger and retaliation. Rome survived for 1,000 years because the conquered provinces benefited from selling their products to Rome. The confiscation of Russia’s currency reserves is above all a warning to China to be very careful in its dealings with the West. For China, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system only means that it is working flat out to introduce its variant of CIPS. Saudi Arabia just agreed to sell oil for yuan. These measures only guarantee that conflicts will continue to escalate and the world economy will be split in half.

Smart Investor: As investors, we try to prepare for strong cycles like these. Which asset classes or sectors should one avoid in this situation and where can one expect safety?
Armstrong:  Government bonds in particular are to be avoided. Governments will default and you will get nothing back. The loans from European governments from before the Second World War are now just an attractive wall decoration. When a company goes bust, its assets are sold and at least you get something back. But you can’t just run into the art museum and steal Picassos in the government. In times of war and geopolitical conflict, real assets are the best security.

Smart Investor: Gold is considered the safe haven, and Bitcoin is also perceived as such in some places. However, these two assets are also more of a thorn in the side of our governments. What do you think of the idea that the Russia argument could make life difficult for investors here in the future?
Armstrong: Gold has lost its mobility – so you can’t hop on a plane and fly somewhere with a briefcase full of gold coins or bars. Cryptocurrencies are vulnerable, because without a power grid, credit cards are a thing of the past. The government is trying to switch to digital currencies and they will not allow competition so they will confiscate cryptocurrencies. The best is paper money or small denomination silver coins that are recognizable to the average person. Tin cans will also have an exchange value if there is no electricity grid.

Smart Investor: Gold and cryptocurrencies are also the main alternatives to paper money, which the war is putting additional pressure on. Will the US dollar and euro survive this?
Armstrong:  The US dollar will outlast the euro, but if we get into a real world war, the paper dollars could lose their value too. Europe has historically canceled its fiat money, while the
US dollar has never been cancelled. Even Canada is now nullifying its currency.

Smart Investor: The Great Reset, the World Economic Forum and Prof. Dr. Klaus Schwab are making waves in Europe. During the corona pandemic, the government measures literally dismantled the medium-sized economy. What do you think of the corporations’ “Big Plan” and are the actors’ ideas compatible with the cycles?
Armstrong: The Great Reset is indeed a real goal. It’s not a conspiracy theory. The three stumbling blocks along the way were Trump, Putin and Xi. They got rid of the first one, and now the propaganda has turned to demonizing Putin and Xi. They believe that if they get rid of these two leaders, they can unite the world under the United Nations. Our models have warned that authoritarianism will rise in this final decade. But they will fail. Marx succeeded only because serfdom in Russia did not end until 1861, while in Europe it only lasted until the fourteenth century. So the people owned nothing, and it was easy to confiscate the wealth of the aristocrats. Today people own their own houses, cars and save for the future. The slogan “You will have nothing and be happy” propagated by the WEF is a red herring. Governments can no longer borrow indefinitely and there will be a default. To disguise this fact, the impression is given that all debts are being forgiven and that they are doing it for you. The guaranteed basic income will be there to replace the pension funds that hold government debt today.

Smart Investor: Thank you very much for your very interesting explanations.

In stock market circles, the American Martin Armstrong (born 1949) is considered a legend. As early as the early 1980s, he correctly predicted the stock market crash of 1987 – and in the midst of the panic he predicted new highs for 1989. He also predicted the bursting of the Japanese stock bubble at the end of 1989. He made his forecasts using the “Economic Confidence Model” (ECM) he developed himself, which is based on a database on the history of coins, which Armstrong used to reconstruct the (financial) history. You can find his daily updated assessments on the blog https://armstrongeconomics.com .

Apr 15 2022

March Retail Sales Report Shows Contraction in Non-Essential Consumer Spending


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 14, 2022 | sundance 

The U.S. Census Bureau {LINK} reports the March retail sales data {pdf LINK} showing a contraction in sales overall (excluding gasoline) and a massive contraction in on-line sales.  As we expected, we are seeing the continued demand side contraction for non-essential purchases.

First, when you review the data, keep in mind all of the statistics are based on dollars.  Currently the BLS calculates the rate of inflation at 8.5 percent year over year. So, when we look at retail sales figures, we must remember the items being sold cost more.  Any reported sales figures in a sector that do not exceed the inflation in that sector, indicates decline in units sold.

The top-line for March retail sales is 0.5% growth; however, the rate of inflation is 8.5%, so the amount of goods sold is substantially less than the 0.5% dollar increase would indicate.  Subtract the sales of gasoline (w/ massive price increases), and retail sales are negative (-0.3%) in March.  SEE TABLE-2

A good category to note the contraction in non-essential purchases is electronics and appliances.  Again, CORE inflation in that segment is around 6%, and yet total sales were only 3.3% higher, meaning less actual units sold.  Compared to 2021, electronics and appliance sales dropped 9.7%.

Showing how much people are pinched, gasoline prices are around 60% higher than this time last year, yet gas station sales only increased by 8.9%.  This means people are buying a lot less fuel at much higher prices.  People have shifted their transportation habits because gas costs so much.

Two more very interesting notes:

Food and beverage stores only reflected a 1.0% increase in sales, amid massive inflation in that sector.  People are buying less food at higher prices.  The year-over-year rate of retail sales increase for supermarkets is 8.4%, however, prices in the grocery store are well beyond 20%.  Again, food prices are changing shopping habits.   You can see the same trend in Health and Beauty Care products.  Consumers are being thrifty and prioritizing their expenses away from non-essentials.

Secondly, perhaps the most obvious shift in consumer spending is noted in on-line (nonstore) retailers.  March retail sales dropped 6.4 percent for on-line shoppers, again as a consequence of much higher on-line prices and some product unavailability.

The bottom line of the Retail Sales report is not unfamiliar to us.  What we are seeing is a lessening in overall consumer spending, as the costs for food, fuel, energy and housing have skyrocketed.   The demand for non-essential purchases is what we would naturally expect to see amid a nation having to make tough purchasing decisions based on inflation.

The economic policy of the people behind Joe Biden is catastrophic, and it appears to be a feature not a flaw.

That said, wise people -including people here- know how to extend their budgets and make use of raw ingredients for multiple purposed meals.  Keep doing that as much as possible to offset the dramatic increases in price.  Look for sales, use coupons, multipurpose products and be smart with purchase decisions.

We can and will get through this together.

If you have tips for people to assist with lowering costs of everyday items, please feel free to share them in the comments section below.  We always find excellent ideas around us for small ways to save.

Coming from a family whose Tupperware® was a matching set of Cool Whip containers, I can tell you there are times when being frugal is a valued skillset.  I welcome all the great advice we share as a community, and I will not let these horrible government officials remove joy.

I’ve been broke more than most, but I ain’t never been poor.

I appreciate you.