Category Minsk Protocol 2014 and Minsk II 3015

Sep 23 2022

Russian Anti-War Protests & the 3rd Generation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Sep 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

After many discussions from both sides of the Ukrainian conflict, I believe that my observation of a generational shift is important. The cycle is always driven by a cyclical nature that, in part, is driven by changes in attitudes between generations. The anti-war protests in Russia rose from the youth over the Ukrainian war. What is unfolding in Russia is because the youth protesting has never known war. They are too young even to have known about the Afghanistan invasion of 1989, which was 33 years ago. This stands in contrast to Americans who have known nothing but endless wars one after the other. I have family who has fought in Afghanistan and Iraq. Most of us have at least known someone who has fought there. War has become more of a normal occurrence to Americans, although many have disagreed with this policy of endless wars including Donald Trump.

The problem Russia has is that war is always created by the political class. It is this older generation that sees war always as an option and they are now in charge of most Western countries. Add to this, the Ukrainian war is REALLY being driven to defeat Russia for climate change. The World Economic Forum is pushing war behind the scenes with the excuse that Russia must be defeated to end their production of fossil fuels and give birth to Schwab’s New Age of dictatorship (Great Reset) to save the planet. This requires our surrender of freedom and reliance on fossil fuels and if had his way, we would all have chips implanted in our heads to prevent rebellions.

The words of wisdom behind cycles may be, in part, the Chinese proverb, 富不过三代? Roughly translated, it means “You can only keep wealth in the family for three generations.” What tends to emerge is the third generation seems to typically experience apathy. The second generation will often clash with the first not seeking to follow in the same footsteps and as such by the third generation, whatever company they formed will typically collapse unless it is sold off and becomes a public company. This is the fate of most businesses, but it is also the fate of political ideas.

Those above holding the reins of power over us mortal peons, always know better. Both Bill Clinton and Obama were tough on illegal immigrants. Obama deported more illegal aliens than even Trump. Something changed and Biden just reads the cue cards so the shift in direction to be a climate zealot was not his personal initiative, but he does as he is told. When he blurts out things that are outrageous, the White House immediately clarifies and tries desperately to whitewash what he says.

This was with Russia is on and it is more about climate change than anything else. The hope is to defeat Russia, subjugate its people, and bring it into the new world order of controlled poverty for about 50% of the Russian people will be on welfare if the mining for natural resources comes to an end. Putin understands the game and his words are not being heard by the youth who have not known war. To them, they do not understand the agenda.

This war was PROVOKED to ensure that Putin would take the bait and invade Ukraine. The day before his invasion on February 24th, 2022, Zelensky stood up and said he was breaking all previous agreements of neutrality and that Ukraine would arm itself with nuclear weapons against Russia. The US invades Iraq on the claim that they had “weapons of mass destruction” and they deliberately pushed Putin to invade so they could claim he was the aggressor.

In 2014 and the overthrow of Yanukovich, the West installed their “interim” government which was UNELECTED, and instantly sent the army to attack the Donbas. McCain promised the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis funding to wage war against Russia as soon as Trump was elected in December 1996. When Trump refused to fund McCain’s endless wars against Russia, then Trump became his hated enemy and his legendary attitude of holding a grudge was carried out right to his grave insisting Trump was not to speak or attend his funeral. He was the worse person I ever met on Capitol Hill.

McCain was pushing Obama to invade Syria to push through a gas pipeline to Europe to undermine Russia. It was McCain who wanted nukes in Checkosovakia and pointed at Russia against the people’s will. He spent his entire life in a grudge match against Russia and that began long before Putin ever came to power. He was the header of the pack of Neocons.

There are Neocons, and Hillary was one of them. They cannot sleep at night without dreaming about how to destroy Russia and China. This is the hateful generation of leaders who will take the world to war. Peace will only come when they finally expire from this world and then the third generation will start all over again.

Sep 22 2022

Interview WORLD FIRST: The Plot to Seize Russia, War Propaganda, and More


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Listen to my latest interview with Maria from Zeee Media.

Description from Maria:

World renowned economist Martin Armstrong joins us to break the story of the several-decade long plan to seize Russia, detailing how he has obtained declassified documents from the Clinton Administration, and how he was previously targeted for possessing this knowledge – which he is finally able to release.

Martin takes us through his encounter with an alleged terrorist from 9/11 while he served in prison, who was actually a Pakistani Christian that was framed by the US Government. We also discuss world events, war propaganda, and Martin’s insight into where we are heading.

Sep 22 2022

Putin is at War with the West – Not Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Vladimir Putin’s recent speech is making headlines as people falsely claim Russia is about to launch an all-out nuclear attack. Putin is sticking to his same plan and says it in his opening statement: “The subject of this address is the situation in Donbas and the course of the special military operation to liberate it from the neo-Nazi regime, which seized power in Ukraine in 2014 as the result of an armed state coup.” Russia must now play defense as they are no longer simply battling Ukraine.

Putin stated that in 1991 the West prided itself on dividing the USSR, and believes “now is the time to do the same to Russia, which must be divided into numerous regions that would be at deadly feud with each other. They decided these plans years ago.”

Putin knows that he is fighting a NATO offensive and not simply Ukraine and directly calls out Washington, London, and Brussels. He correctly stated that the West first set out to demonize Russia and spread “Russophobia,” as they did during the Cold War. NATO and the West are now the opponents of Russia in this proxy war, while the Ukrainian people are merely cannon fodder used to usher in this new world.

Putin has been trying to reclaim land since 2014. He had no plan to seize Ukraine, but did want to reclaim the Donbas. This is much bigger than Russia v Ukraine as he fears he must act on the offensive against most of the world’s superpowers who want to seize Russia. They are shoving endless funds into Ukraine because they expect a prize in the end. Putin stated that he attempted peace talks, but the West shot them down because they craved war.

“After the start of the special military operation, in particular after the Istanbul talks, Kiev representatives voiced quite a positive response to our proposals. These proposals concerned above all ensuring Russia’s security and interests. But a peaceful settlement obviously did not suit the West, which is why, after certain compromises were coordinated, Kiev was actually ordered to wreck all these agreements.

More weapons were pumped into Ukraine. The Kiev regime brought into play new groups of foreign mercenaries and nationalists, military units trained according to NATO standards and receiving orders from Western advisers.”

This will not end well; the West made it clear that peace would not be an option. Zelensky is simply the face of a much larger plan at play that involves an ongoing plot to seize Russia, which has been happening behind the scenes for decades.

Sep 17 2022

RT Interview on Russia-Ukraine War


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

RT reached out to Martin Armstrong for an economist’s view on the Ukrainian conflict. Click here for a quick interview that explains why Zelensky has no incentive to seek peace.

Sep 17 2022

Putin & October


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Sep 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Despite all the propaganda that was put out by John McCain, Putin was selected by Yeltsin because he was being blackmailed on the one side by the oligarchs in July 1999 and the communists on the other who introduced a motion in the Duma to impeach him for corruption that was related to the Bank of New York scandal.

Putin NEVER sought to resurrect the old USSR. In fact, he was the ONLY Russian leader to even criticize Lenin as just a bolshevik who destroyed a great empire of the Tsars. Lost in the pages of history, Russia at the time in 1917 had the largest gold reserves of any nation. Those gold reserves vanished and to this day have not been found. It was believed that they were hidden to prevent the Communists from seizing them.

Putin was there to restore Russia after the oligarchs plundered it and the Harvard boys who advised Russia on how to make the transition from Communism to Capitalism utterly never understood the most basic element of such a transition – the people. Putin’s most important achievement of his 20 years in power was restoring normalcy and stability to Russia. He went after the oligarchs and told them they could keep their money, but to stop interfering in politics.

The unwritten history that has been omitted from all books on the subject is that in 1991 when the USSR collapsed, NATO solicited Gorbachev to join NATO. That was one of the reasons there was a coup against him for the hardliners saw this would be a surrender of Russia to the USA. That is when Yeltsin stood on the tank and became President. Yeltsin was himself corrupt and he actually facilitated the rise of the oligarchs.

When Yeltsin turned to Putin out of desperation, the people cheered for Putin was neither an oligarch nor a communist. Despite the propaganda from the West, Putin truly enjoyed a 70%+ approval rating for the people neither wanted to lose all freedom to the communists and the oligarchs exploited the people to gain wealth.

Putin has refused to institute a draft to shore up Russian forces. However, despite all the propaganda that pours out of Ukraine, removing Putin will turn Russia very hard right and they are already criticizing Putin for being too soft.

There has been the strategy that inflation is rising and if Putin is smart, he will turn off the gas to Europe for the winter and show them how insane this is to (1) fuel a proxy war against Russia, and (2) push this Great Reset and the Green Agenda.

Basically, the hope remains that the West loses interest in supporting Ukraine as the costs rise. That’s been Russia’s hope and Ukraine’s dread before, but it seems more unlikely than ever at the moment before winter comes.

The most serious threat to Putin is losing the support of the elites. At the moment, Putin is the balance in the middle between hawks who want to see him crush Ukraine, and doves who want a peace settlement. As it stands now, the hawks would win for the West does not seek any peace and Zelensky says Kissenger is living in 1938 and refuses to yield one inch of territory to Russia. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazis instantly attacked the Donbas in 2014 and even put out a slogan that Crimea will be Ukrainian or Crimea will be depopulated. The hatred there is not going to ever vanish. The only reasonable solution is to allow the Donbas to vote, but since they are mostly ethnic Russians, Kyiv will never accept their vote.

It appears that the volatility will rise after this coming week. The Ukrainians may be forcing Putin’s hand to placate the Hawks since the Doves have been rejected by the West. NATO was Behind the Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv. Yet this victory for Ukraine was more of a staged PR event. The region was being held by local police units, not the Russian army which is in the South. Russia has achieved a 10:1 kill ratio against the Ukrainians in the region of the Donbas which is key. The Ukrainian forces that attacked Kharkiv were in effect a NATO army with the full support of Western intelligence and tactics. Because Kharkiv was held by police-type forces rather than the Russian army, it was clearly done for a PR event to raise morale and to get the West to send more money under the theory that Putin is on the run.

Sep 17 2022

Panicked Germany Seizes Russian Energy Company Rosneft, Uses National Trusteeship to Control Oil Refinery – The Current Economic Outlook of Europe, Full State Control of Critical Energy Production


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

Welcome to the new “democratic norms” in the industrialized west as Germany seizes the private assets of Russian owned energy company Rosneft; because oil refining is critical to fuel prices and German has just realized their vulnerability.

Within this new Build Back Better system, driven by the policies of western nations, it appears things are changing quickly.  Democracy or capitalism in Germany is now quickly dispatched, as socialism -state control- becomes the priority.

Heck, I’m old enough to remember when everyone decried China’s authoritarian economic model for doing the exact same thing as Germany (a few months ago).  But, well, we must pretend not to notice these things comrades….

(Reuters) – BERLIN, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Germany took control of a major Russian-owned oil refinery on Friday, risking retaliation from Moscow as Berlin strives to shore up energy supplies and meet its European Union commitment to eliminate Russian oil imports by the end of the year.

The economy ministry said it was putting a unit of Russian oil firm Rosneft (ROSN.MM) under the trusteeship of the industry regulator and taking over the business’ Schwedt refinery, which supplies 90% of Berlin’s fuel.

“This is a far-reaching energy policy decision to protect our country,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz told a news conference to present the government’s plans to put the Schwedt refinery under the control of the Federal Network Agency regulator. (read more)

Who knew economic security was national security?

Now, let’s start talking about USA food exports, shall we?

Also, I’ll take “Things That Won’t End Well” for $1000, Alex.

Sep 16 2022

Zelensky to head US Defense Industry Conference


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Sep 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The military-industrial complex continues to grow with the proxy war. The annual Future Force Capabilities Conference and Exhibition hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) will feature none other than Zelensky as their keynote speaker, as well as his minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov. Everyone in attendance is directly profiting off of the war. The IRS deems the NDIA to be a nonprofit organization when in fact, it is blatantly lobbying.

Defense contractors need war, as do corrupt government officials who prosper off of pain. America has already provided Ukraine with over $15 billion since February, yet Zelensky is poised to request more funding and weapons at this meeting.

Boeing Defense, Space & Security; L3Harris Technologies; Raytheon Technologies; BAE Systems; Lockheed Martin Corporation; Huntington Ingalls Industries; General Dynamics; and Northrop Grumman all met in April to discuss how they could profit off of the war. The Pentagon recently announced (see video above) that they want to set up “the backbone of a Ukraine force…for years to come.” Meanwhile, the US military is suggesting that its own soldiers, 24% of whom are food insecure, begin applying for food stamps.

The Biden Administration seems to have unlimited funds for Ukraine. This event will show all the “innovative” ways that the US can pay to kill Russian soldiers on behalf of Ukraine “for years to come.”

Sep 15 2022

Ukraine Carrying out Assassinations in Moscow


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There are reports on the Russian General SVR Telegram channel, which tends to be an anti-Putin station, that is claiming there was an inside-job attempt to assassinate Putin with an attack on his motorcade. He was not harmed. They are claiming that the first car of the convoy was blocked by an ambulance, but the second car made a slight detour and did not stop. A loud bang was supposedly heard from Putin’s car, but it continued and arrived safely at the president’s residence.

They further claimed that the body of a man was then found driving the ambulance. They have reported that the head of the president’s bodyguards and several other people have been suspended and are in custody. Nobody has been named and there is no other news service that has reported this claim.

When we look at our models, the real higher volatility and the turning point in Russia appear to be in October, which is also a Panic cycle in the ruble. What we do see is that the Ukrainians carried out assassination hits in Russia. They have been trying to target Putin to kill him without success so far. They tried to kill Aleksandr Dugin with a car bomb, but they killed his daughter Darya Dugina. This is the car bombing of a pro-Putin supporter in Moscow. The sheer hatred between Ukrainian and Russians is legendary and as such the likelihood of this ever reaching peace is unlikely.

My sources continue to suggest that removing Putin will escalate things, not stop them. The hardliners will seize power and that will not be good going into 2023. Claiming they have Putin on the run is not going to win the day in Ukraine. It runs the risk of really escalating things for the hardliners in Moscow are criticizing Putin for being too soft on Ukraine. He for the first time started to attack their power grid. The hardliners will push for a serious attack against Ukraine rather than just securing the Donbas.

Sep 11 2022

Is Russia Losing?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Ukrainian army is at least one-third larger than it was last year and some claim it has doubled in size. They have been concentrating their effort, not on the Donbas, but on Ukraine’s Kharkov region. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that Russia has withdrawn its troops from multiple locations across Ukraine’s Kharkov region pulling back to the Donbas in the face of a major Ukrainian offensive in the area. The Ministry has actually stated: “In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”

The troops that were stationed in the Kharkov area have been “re-deployed” over the past three days pulling back to the Donetsk People’s Republic. It also stated that during its withdrawal, the military had performed a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops.”  It did not elaborate. It was attacking the Ukrainians to allow the withdrawal with artillery, missile, and aircraft attacks to provide cover. They claimed that they destroyed over 100 armor pieces and artillery and eliminated “more than 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign fighters” in the past three days. The Ukrainian offensive was launched in the Kharkov Region on Thursday, but they were not as successful.

The real problem will emerge with the coming winter and is likely to be a very tough winter. While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg keeps urging Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia, it puts out this urging saying that otherwise, the country may “cease to exist” as an independent nation. From the outset, Putin did not seek to conquer all of Ukraine. One must wonder if the West is not propagating this war claiming Ukraine will cease to exist unless it fights Russia. That certainly eliminates any settlement or a peace treaty. NATO needs war with Russia and Putin by now has to understand that his real enemy is NATO and the USA. The propaganda fueling this agenda can be seen in the words of Stoltenberg who told the AP:

“If President [Vladimir] Putin and Russia stop fighting, then we will have peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, then Ukraine will cease to exist as an independent nation.” 

Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.

“Winter’s coming” as they warned in Game of Thrones. Reuters has reported that the flows of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine were stable at the start of the week. Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany “remained shut and eastbound gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany continued at low levels.”

Beware of the feigned-retreat is a military tactic, whereby a military force pretends to withdraw to lure an enemy into a position of vulnerability. Ukraine is now concentrating its forces in Kharkov region. Putin cannot be stupid and with the approach of winter, he should cut off all the gas through Ukraine to Europe and do as Stoltenberg keeps saying. There are two options. Use Tactical nuclear weapons, also called nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland.

Herodotus reported that the Ancient Spartans used the feigned-retreat tactic at the Battle of Thermopylae (480BC) to defeat a force of Persian Immortals. Socrates debated a general who said it was cowardly to retreat. Even during the Battle of Agrigentum, in Sicily (262BC) during the First Punic War. Then the Carthaginian general Hanno, son of Hannibal, sent in his cavalry to attack the Roman cavalry and then pulled a feign-retreat drawing the Romans right into the arms of the main Carthaginian army waiting patiently.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements that were to provide the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state and to vote on their own separation since they were ethnically Russians. That agreement was brokered by Germany and France and was first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko then admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.” That is precisely what was done.

The problem now is that this appears to be an all-out war that the West keeps saying Russia is losing. I fear if that were true, then we will be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine calling the bluff of Europe- Who will be next? Beware of next April and this coming January does not look very quiet on the Western front. The Pi Target from the fall of the USSR comes on April 6th, 2023. The West keeps telling the Ukrainians that Russia is losing and that the overthrow of Putin will bring peace. I fear this is just total propaganda dor the people behind Putin are far worse and think he has been too soft on Ukraine.

Sep 11 2022

U.K Energy Reaches Crisis Point, Britain Announces New Oil and Gas Leases and Lifts Moratorium on Fracking


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 

There is a particular historical irony in the timing.  On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.

Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.

The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel.  The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.

Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.

The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades.  The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion.  The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe.  It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Britain’s move to green-light dozens of new oil and gas fields will leave investors and banks with a tough PR job as Britain struggles to shore up its energy security whilst sticking to its climate commitments.

Starting new oil and gas projects runs counter to the world’s shift away from fossil fuels in the fight against global warming and a commitment at last November’s U.N. climate talks to phase down their use.

Yet runaway inflation amid conflict in Ukraine has forced the hand of new British prime minister Liz Truss as Russian President Putin seeks to use energy as a weapon this winter.

Britain will launch a new round of oil and gas licensing next week with more than 100 licenses issued, part of a wider package of measures to tackle the energy crisis announced by Truss on Thursday.

And Britain’s not alone in reassessing its energy strategy. Germany, for example, has been forced to turn back to even dirtier thermal coal to help fuel its power plants and keep the lights on, hampering short-term efforts to rein in climate-damaging carbon emissions.

But for energy companies and the investors, bankers and insurers that finance them, new investment in fossil fuels also presents a challenge given many have made their own pledges to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

“This will absolutely hinder companies’ … ability to hit their climate targets,” said Pietro Bertazzi, global director of policy engagement and external affairs at non-profit environmental disclosure platform CDP. (read more)

This is the first crack in the western alliance and the ‘climate change’ agenda of the World Economic Forum as it relates to energy policy and ultimately control over human life within the alliance.

The war in Ukraine was being used as a justification to explain the consequences of European energy policy, particularly rapidly increasing costs for energy and food, but the war in Ukraine was not the cause.  The true root cause of the exploding inflation and economic mess was the Build Back Better agenda, and the series of policies dictated from within it, that each nation willingly accepted.