Posted originally on Jan 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: I had assumed you were just a Trump supporter. It has been emphasized that I was wrong and that you are in the middle of forecasting the events economically. I was told you recently said that Trump could go down as Herbert Hoover and that he cannot prevent the recession from occurring. Would you please elaborate on this and why you are in the middle to begin with. That is rare these days.

Thank you for your time.

Doug

ANSWER: The computer forecasts all of these elections worldwide, and it has never been wrong because it is not partisan; it just follows the economics. Plain and simple. Any unbiased analysis will always show that if you turn the economy down, the people will vote them out of power regardless of the party. It has always been as they say, it’s the economy stupid.

I am anti-Marxist. I went  behind the Berlin Wall before it fell, and I was called in by China during the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. So, what I have seen has shaped my personal beliefs. Like weather, too much heat or too much cold and you will die. The same is true in economics. Go into hyperinflation and you get Germany turning to Hitler, or deflation you get the Great That is why I am in the middle of the road, I suppose. I see government as always the problem, for they presume they can manipulate We the People always to retain power. They are dead wrong.

Now, as for Trump becoming Herbert Hoover II, I am by no means a Democrat and at times, I am barely a Republican. We are heading into a recession that will turn into a Depression for some countries because we have a Sovereign Debt Crisis that will not remain silent for long. Trump and his people have grabbed the scepter, and they become mesmerized by the power and think they, too, can dictate the economy. Sorry, there is something we call the business cycle, which is global. The first recognized global contagion was the Panic of 1857. We cannot ignore the economic conditions externally. Trump wants these tariffs to end the trade deficits. That is old-school thinking, and it will fail. Raising tariffs will cause deeper recessions outside the USA and that means the US exports will decline. As that declines, it will create a global economic contagion and that will come back to engulf the US economy.

I can preach until I am blue in the face. They will NEVER listen to me BECAUSE they are all caught up in their own power. It is like a guy has a gun, and he says your money or your life. Are you going to lecture him that guns are illegal without a permit? Good luck on that one.

With all due respect for Trump, this is just the wrong time with the bad ideas because the crisis is beyond just the United States. Unless you understand the world economy as a whole, this will not end well. Trump will hit the ground running and may score some success into 2026. Thereafter, things will get serious. Yes, the political system and the rule of law is complete garbage. This will help post-2032 with the reform and creation of a better political-economic system.

This is how the business cycle will unfold. It really does not matter who is president. The global economy will turn down. Kamala and the Democrats would have been a total disaster and we would be in World War III very fast. The Democrats said they were defending democracy against Trump. They were actually stating their own agenda.

Biden was a placeholder – nothing more. He was not the president making the decisions – that was, I believe, the Neocons led by Antony Blinken no different that Dick Cheney was really president under Bush Jr. The Neocons have usurped American foreign policy and did everything to push us into World War III. This was a coup against the American people that the press would NEVER cover, no less investigate. Biden was in a role for which he was unfit because he could be controlled by the Neocons. They picked him, which is why you had Republicans for Kamala to keep that power play. The Democrats replace Biden with Kamala who would be another placeholder who never one a single delegate in the previous presidential primary. She lost every battleground state. All the time, the Democrats pushed Biden off the ticket and made her the nominee without giving voters the slightest say, yet had the audacity to claim this election was about Democracy.

The Democrats would lie to your face that Biden was OK. Had the shoe been on the other foot, the Republicans would have done the same. Rule #1 in politics is NEVER admit a mistake. I have dealt with more governments than probably any analyst or all of them combined. I have seen inside the belly of the beast, and I cannot mindlessly be in either party. It will always come down to the realization at the end of the day that it will be government vs. people, and history will attest to that statement. If a commentator only supports one party, you are listening to a fool.