Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
We’re pleased to announce that the next World Economic Conference will be held in:
Orlando, Florida on November 21– 23, 2025
As many of you know, the WEC is not your typical financial conference. It’s where we bring together minds from around the world—investors, analysts, and policymakers—to explore how capital truly moves across borders, markets, and cycles. This is your chance to understand what Socrates sees ahead before the rest of the world catches up.
Tickets go on sale to the public on Tuesday, July 29.
These events typically sell out quickly, and with growing global demand and virtual attendance now available, we recommend acting early. Whether you’re attending in person or online, this year’s WEC promises crucial insight into where we stand on the Economic Confidence Model—and where we’re going.
Posted originally on Jul 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been focusing on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory, which marks a significant shift in humanity. While this may be true, as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.
The 80-year theory, also known as the Strauss–Howe generational theory, posits that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that culminate in a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864, the year of the US Civil War. Taking it back even further, we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.
Now, absolutely everything is connected, and garnering the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint, as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.
The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity, amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th. The next wave, 1878, saw the Long Depression, which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35, which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.
Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted profoundly, altering nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave is expected to be in 2032, and this will be followed by a shift in economic power from the West to the
Posted originally on Jul 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, your model on volcanoes had correctly forecast this surge in activity in the Ring of Fire for 2025. Do you view this as part of the warning that we are headed into global cooling, rather than warming? Why does the media refuse to highlight all the correct events your computer has been able to forecast when nobody else comes close?
AP
ANSWER: This has been my concern. Climate News just reported: “The Pacific Ring of Fire has witnessed an alarming surge in seismic activity throughout 2024 and early 2025.” I have tried to help society, but those who opposed me cannot even now admit that what they were doing was taking control of the computer by sheer force. I reported back in 2022 that the low would be in 2019, which was the point from which the activity would begin to rise. As you see, we have a string of Directional Changes into 2030. However, take a close look and you will see a Panic Cycle in 2031.
I’m sorry, these climate experts offer personal opinions. It takes an objective viewpoint to see what honestly lies ahead in this journey we call life. The media will never report on what Socrates has done. It would discredit everything they have been saying for years.
Posted originally on Jun 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Polynesian island of Tuvalu is composed of nine coral islands across a 420-mile distance in the west-central Pacific Ocean. The ocean has come to reclaim the islands as the natural cycle of climate change has led the surrounding sea level to rise at about 3.9 mm annually, yet the island is only 2 meters above sea level. Australia is now offering the island’s 11,000 inhabitants the opportunity to apply for the world’s first climate visa.
NASA believes that the majority of the islands will be submerged by 2050. Tuvalu has begun the process of digital preservation to maintain records of its culture and landscapes before the islands are reclaimed.
Numerous studies have pointed to dynamic coral processes as the primary reason for rising sea levels. Dynamic coral processes reference the natural order of oceanographic forces that reshape coral reef structures. Certain marine life and reef-building corals produce calcium carbonate and accrue as gravel and sand. The ocean waves and currents naturally break down these structures over time and cause reefs to shift, contract or expand. The reef masses themselves are living landforms that are susceptible to accretion and erosion. Overall, these are not structurally sound for long-term inhabitation.
Australia is currently opening 280 visas for Tuvalu citizens annually for a small registration fee of $16. Visa applicants will be selected at random. Over 3,000 Tuvaluans have applied for a visa thus far. “This is the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world, providing a pathway for mobility with dignity as climate impacts worsen,” a spokesperson for Australia’s foreign affairs department said. “At the same time, it will provide Tuvaluans the choice to live, study and work in Australia,” Australia’s foreign affairs department said.
“For the first time, there is a country that has committed legally to come to the aid of Tuvalu, upon request, when Tuvalu encounters a major natural disaster, a health pandemic or military aggression,” Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo said at the time. “Again, for the first time, there is a country that has committed legally to recognize the future statehood and sovereignty of Tuvalu despite the detrimental impact of climate changed-induced sea level rise.”
Australia is not doing this as a humanitarian act. Australia is offering visas with the stipulation that Tuvalu permits Australia to have a final say in defense pacts. As it may be, Tuvalu is one of the twelve states that maintains relations with Taipei over Beijing.
Tuvalu will be uninhabitable prior to 2050 as skilled workers flee to Australia. Australia, in turn, has control over the small island chain. Tuvaluan is seen as a stark warning to those who fear climate change, and yet, this is a naturally occurring phenomenon that humans cannot create or prevent.
Posted originally on Jun 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, why is it that the press and academia are not beating down your doors when you are the only one who had forecasted a recession into 2028 years in advance? I can only assume that this is a deliberate conspiracy to prevent others from understanding that the world economy is not random and, as you say, it’s all a confidence game. Do you think this is a conspiracy against you, aimed at preventing you from educating society?
HL
ANSWER: Yes, it is a conspiracy insofar as they do not want people to see that the economy is ordered and not random chaos. Here is Larry Summers saying that if you could forecast the future, then it would be self-fulfilling, which is how they view me. I even had the Commodity Futures Trading Commission file a complaint against me, demanding that I turn over a list of all my clients. They told the court that I was manipulating the world economy, and if I turned over my client list, they could prove it. My lawyer asked the court where the statute was that said I could not manipulate the entire world right down to his salary. He agreed, laughed, and denied them their crazy subpoena.
What’s at stake here? You vote for a politician who promises to solve a problem that they cannot. Democrats cannot blame Trump’s tariffs if the economy is turning down with or without his tariff war. WE are headed into war as the computer forecast because these people are on the verge of collapse. They need war as a decoy to blame Putin, just as Biden blamed Putin for the rise in gasoline prices when it was Biden who imposed the sanctions, not Putin. They MUST go to war for 72 years of borrowing with no intention of paying anything back, is now bringing the entire financial system to a grinding halt. The people in Europe will be storming the Parliaments with pitchforks, for they have ordered that, on average, 70% of pension funds must hold “safe” government debt. A sovereign default wipes out private pensions.
I put out the ECM, and it forecasted a peak in May 2024, from which we would turn down into a recession that would not bottom until 2028. This is not my opinion so it cannot be my influence. Those against me claim I am too influential, and that is why the forecasts are correct. Otherwise, they have to admit everything from Politics to Keynesian Economics is wrong. It cannot be that they are wrong; it must be that I am the problem. Human Nature has a very dark side, and I’m tired of being their target practice.
I had a good conversation with Paul back in 1999. He told me I was correct. The business cycle was about 8 years. Even the previous Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, who presided over the collapse of Bretton Woods, concluded that the Business Cycle always wins. They have done everything they can to shut me up. I even survived the orchestrated attempt to assassinate me. I woke up from that coma to their dismay, and sometimes I wish I had not.
The entire sales pitch behind socialism is that you need government because ONLY they can bring ORDER to the CHAOS of randomness. As I have said, in physics class, they stated that nothing is random, and in economics class, they claimed that everything is random, so the government can manipulate society to eliminate recessions and depressions. But if the ECM is correct, then the BS they espouse cannot be accurate.
Posted originally on Jun 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, you have shown that capital flows shift, and the computer has been able to predict wars by monitoring the entire world. The forecasts on Crude were unprecedented. I just had to remark how your computer handled this entire 12-day war and its cyclical forecast with your arrays. It is so apparent why so many want to know what Socrates is projecting. What you say that you stumbled on this unintentionally still deserves more than a Nobel Prize. While people sensationalize stories to get clicks, only Socrates handled this event correctly without fanfare.
Thank you for the education.
BB
REPLY: Yes, the Crude market did illustrate that the economics and markets were not matching the sensationalized reports. The May 5th turning point picked the low, then three Directional Changes created the sideways consolidation for three weeks. The Panic Cycle, the week of June 9th, targeted the breakout and the June 13th Israel attack of the three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development to decapitate the government. It did not show a continued trend.
This is the opening to one chapter. I am trying to finish the book on the Economic Confidence Model and the Geometry of Time. There is a specific order hidden behind the veil of randomness, and our most significant problem in history is that we conduct analysis using the Classical Physics approach of linear analysis, which reduces everything to a single cause and effect. That prevents us from seeing that the world around us functions within a three-dimensional world, and TIME is not a single dimension. Therein lies our most significant error. Our inability to see what dictates the world of Quantum Physics, which unfolds before our eyes, also applies to the world of Classical Physics, causing us to believe in randomness and chaos rather than a hidden order.
Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
There is no better predictor of future warfare than capital flows. We have witnessed capital fleeing danger time and time again, nearly always indicating a significant event was underway before the headlines could capture the moment. The internet is buzzing with a new tongue-in-cheek predictor of US warfare—the pizza index.
The pizza index or pizza meter theorizes that there is an uptick in pizza orders from Washington D.C., namely near the Pentagon, during major crises. America maintains it had no involvement in Israel’s attack on Iran. On June 12, social media users began reporting that the Pentagon pizza index was rising as there was a surge in deliveries surrounding the Pentagon and other defense buildings. At least four pizzerias reported a surge in orders one hour before the first strike.
With about an hour left before close, the 2nd closest Dominos to the Pentagon (about 8 min drive) is experiencing EXTREMELY high levels of traffic compared to a normal Thursday at about 11:00pm ET. pic.twitter.com/TnItUDysyq
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 13, 2025
The Soviet Union was the first to develop this theory, which they called, Pizzint, during the Cold War. Soviet intelligence began tracking pizza orders near the Pentagon and CIA headquarters with intense scrutiny. The Soviets were known for thinking outside the box and developing unconventional strategies for warfare that were often dismissed by other nations. The Soviets believed that a sudden spike in deliveries indicated officials were working extended hours, and Americans’ love for pizza became their tell.
The phenomenon does carry some accuracy. Prior to the Gulf War in 1990, a Domino’s franchise owner by the name of Frank Meeks reported that he received a massive uptick in orders for pizza to the Pentagon and CIA headquarters. Other pizzerias noted a similar pattern, especially on the night that led to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Nighttime pizza orders rose from 3 to 101 per night in the week leading up to hostilities. The night before the battle began, pizza orders to US intelligence offices surpassed 300.
The same phenomenon occurred numerous times, such as the night before US interventions in Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989). The meter proved accurate for other significant political events, such as the impeachment hearings for President Bill Clinton in 1998.
With less than an hour to close, the Domino's nearest the Pentagon is experiencing abnormally high traffic. pic.twitter.com/RZ5r5EJc1V
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 2, 2025
Socrates noted that June 1 would lead to a significant global event. Sorry, we do not have pizza tracking in our algorithm. Interestingly, an X account called Pentagon Pizza Report noted that the Domino’s closest to the Pentagon was experiencing abnormally high traffic that day, which coincided with Ukraine’s massive attack on Russia.
Officials are required to work late, tethered to their desks. An uptick in pizza orders before important events is quite an interesting theory and there are now hundreds of social media accounts dedicated to tracking pizza deliveries in the D.C. area. Perhaps intelligence officials should begin ordering takeout elsewhere.
Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended your 2011 conference in Philadelphia. I was dragged there by a friend. You mentioned the war cycle resurfacing in 2014, and I didn’t believe it. I have read your criticism of Ukraine, and now Israel has not been trying to get Trump to attack Iran. You are correct, Zelensky is trying to get NATO to strike Russia first, claiming they are planning to invade the Baltic using a military drill in Belarus. Between the Neocons, Zelensky, and now Israel, all trying to get the US into war, any doubt I had about your models was ill-founded. You have paid with years of your life trying to help society. As is often said, no good deed goes unpunished.
You have demonstrated that there is a cycle to everything. I was told you are not married because you never found your companion, like Milton Friedman, whom you envied, is what I heard. Perhaps you will one day find that person who understands and appreciates your calling in life.
Thank you for your courage and endurance.
WP
ANSWER: Thank you for the cartoon of Milton and Rose. Milton had a very special relationship with Rose, who, by the way, was born in Ukraine when it was the Russian Empire before the USSR. They met in school and had the same interests – economics. I seriously doubt I would ever find such a person; it’s getting too late in life anyway.
I believe that Zelensky is such a piece of shit, he is beyond description. He is a traitor to Ukraine for he was pretending to be Christian and was a NeoNazi. He became Jewish ONLY after he became president to hide the fact that he was a NeoNazi.
The New York Times even published this piece about Ukrainian Nazis how they killed here a Jewish mother holding the hand of her child. They killed her, but threw the child in the grave because they did not waste bullets on children. They cut the babies out of pregnant women and sewed a live cat into the womb. What the Ukrainians were doing even horrified the German Nazis. the CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis only because they hated Russians as well. That is where we are today with the press cheering every blow against Russia and refusing to look at the facts.
The Ukrainisn NeoNazi’s hated anyone who was NOT Ukrainian. They carried out genocide against Poles, Hungarians, and Russians as well as Jews. Like George Soros who pretend to be Christian to also hide from the Nazis, Zelensky was the same.
Here is Zelensky before becoming president, joking about confiscating the assets of Jews and Russians. He became a Jew only to hide his past.
Biden’s Neocons were all Ukrainian Jews claiming that their families were persecuted by Russians. So all three supported Ukrainian NeoNazis all because they hated Russins. Garland brought all sorts of charges against Trump, trying to prevent him from taking office because he was anti-war.
This ethnic hatred produced World War I when a Serbian assassinated the heir to the throne of Austria. This hatred will bring us into World War III. The hatred is surfacing everywhere. I do not see a way out – sorry.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 