Tag Archives: BRICS

Oct 3 2025

HARNWELL: “let’s put it this way — the UK is heading towards revolution, the US towards civil war”


Posted originally on Rumble on By Bannon’s War Room on: October, 02, 2025

Sep 29 2025

Seasonal Hires Reach 16-Year Low


Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Online Shopping

Seasonal retail hiring may plummet to the lowest level since 2009. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retailers to add under 500,000 temporary positions in the final three months of the year, an 8% annual decline, and the smallest gain in 16 years. Retail depends on holiday Q4 sales for a bulk of annual revenue and the hiring trend is a glaring sign of a declining economy.

Certain retailers, like Target, stated that they plan to offer overtime hours to existing employees. Yet another sign of the times as people are eager for additional income and companies are not keen to take on additional employees.

A PwC survey from September 2025 indicates that the average person plans to spend 5% less this holiday season, down from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,552 per person. The survey has not indicated a drop in holiday sales since 2020. PwC’s figure translates to ~$413B–$460B total if scaled to ~266M adult consumers. Gen Z notably plans to spend 23% less this year as the cost of living has caused most young adults to live paycheck to paycheck, whereas boomers with sufficient savings plan to spend 5% more.

The National Retail Federation (NRF), however, predicts US retail sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion for the year. As for holiday spending, the NRF predicts a rise between 2.5% and 3.5% reaching a total between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.

Hiring trends in retail indicate that companies are less than optimistic about overall foot traffic this holiday season. Americans are spending more on less. Discretionary spending has been on the decline as inflation never meaningly waned.

Sep 29 2025

The Safest EU Nation According to Residents


Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Croatia

A new report by Eurostat has found that Croatians feel safer than people in any other European Union nation, with only 1.4% of the population reporting anti-social activity. Lithuania and Poland ranked close behind Croatia. In contrast, Greeks feared the most for their safety with over 20% of citizens reporting crime. What is the common denominator?

Citizens in EU nations with stricter immigration policies feel safer than those with open borders or whose nations are situated as a landing point. Croatia cracked down on immigration policies this year, leading to a 70% decline in work permit approvals. Yet, that is not the population in question. Over 26,000 migrants passed through Croatia in 2024, but most continued on to other EU nations. The border with Bosnia is monitored with drones and an active police force. “Only 3.6% of the people who declared their intention to apply for international protection in the Republic of Croatia actually make a formal application,” the Interior Ministry in Zagreb told DW. “We have no information about the countries to which these people went.”

Then you have Greece, unfortunately, a landing spot for migrants arriving by boat. The EU Pact was intended to provide safeguards to migrants to streamline the process. Brussels provided Greece with over 5 billion euros in funding over the past decade to manage migration, but the off is no longer worth the risk. Greece finally took a hardline on migration in 2025 and began implementing harsh penalties including imprisonment and ankle tag monitoring for those awaiting deportation. The EU has accused Greece of violating international law by returning migrants to Turkish waters and operating detention centers. Yet, due to the extreme nature of open border policies, these measures were crucial to regain control over the nation.

The nations who openly welcomed migrants are facing the highest rates of migrant-related crime. Migrants tend to be lone males who do not integrate well into European society. Take Germany, for example, the hub for migrants thanks to Angela Merkel’s policies some ten years ago. Violent crime peaked to a 15-year high in 2023, and migrants were responsible for 40% of all violent crimes. Nationalist sentiments are growing throughout Europe because the people are experiencing the repercussions of open borders.

Sep 26 2025

US GDP Rose 3.8% in Q3


Posted originally on Sep 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

GDP 3

US GDP grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2, surpassing estimates of 3.3%, leading the press to cheer a strong and robust economy. By design, the GDP calculation counts net exports as a positive. When imports collapse, GDP rises even though that is a signal of weakened consumer demand.

Consumer spending rose by 2.5%, rising 0.6% from Q1, and overperformed compared to the 1.6% estimate. Again, the underlying cause of that rise is not consumer confidence. The price of goods remains elevated, and consumers are spending more on less. Household debt is now at record highs across every area, from mortgages to credit cards and auto loans. It is an illusion that higher consumer spending indicates prosperity.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) accurately stated that the “primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a substraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.” This does not mean companies are simply purchasing domestically due to tariffs.

The GDP calculation, albeit better than anticipated, does not indicate long-term strength in the economy. The decline in imports has skewed the figure in favor of government so it looks as if policies are working and the US is somehow immune to the global economic decline. The US cannot experience meaningful growth when demand in declining due a loss of confidence and debt is rapidly accumulating.

Sep 26 2025

Secretary Hegseth Calls for All Top Generals and Flag Officers to Attend Meeting at Quantico


Posted originally on CTH on September 25, 2025 | Sundance

Other than the broad announcement to around 600 to 800 U.S. Generals and flag officers from around the world, no one is exactly sure why Secretary Pete Hegseth has requested they come to the U.S for a meeting.

According to reports from CNN and various news outlets, Secretary of the War Department, Pete Hegseth has sent a notice for all of them to travel back to the U.S. for a meeting in Virginia at the War Department’s Quantico facility.

WASHINGTON – Hundreds of US generals and admirals around the globe have been called to Virginia for a meeting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth next Tuesday, several US officials told CNN, though the reason for the meeting is unclear.

The meeting is expected to be held at the military installation in Quantico, Virginia, multiple officials said, adding that no one seems to know what the meeting is about, including the general and flag officers themselves, or why it was suddenly added to the calendar.

One source familiar said they’d heard theories ranging from a group physical fitness test, to receiving a briefing on the state of the Defense Department, to a mass firing of officers, but regardless of the reason the sudden convening of so many senior military officers is highly unusual.

“It’s being referred to as the general squid games,” one official quipped. (read more)

Sep 25 2025

ECB: Keep Calm and Carry Cash


Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

War drummer_clear

The European Central Bank (ECB) is urging citizens to “keep calm and carry cash.” The ominous message is a warning of trouble ahead. Bank runs, defaults, war, grid failures, pandemics—the current banking system cannot rely on what’s ahead. “Cash provides essential redundancy – a ‘spare tire’ – for the payment system,” the study’s authors write. “This redundancy is vital for any system, as no system is infallible.”

Indeed, no system is infallible. I have been consistently warning for decades that tangible assets are a necessity. Cash is freedom, which is precisely the reason that governments want to transition to digital and CBDC. Cash is anonymous, untraceable, and outside the immediate reach of bureaucrats. The entire fight against “money laundering” and the push to link biometric data to bank accounts is a direct assault on cash. Every penny will be tracked, and if they decide you owe taxes, they can simply deduct it without a trial.

Hoarding Euros

However, you cannot simply flee with cash in a suitcase as the majority of nations consider that a crime and will seize your money. Customs agents do not need evidence of a crime, and even if the courts clear you of wrongdoing, there is no guarantee you will ever receive it back. Money is whatever someone is willing to accept as payment. I have long advocated for silver coinage that is easy to carry and identifiable as one such alternative, especially valuable if the currency fails.

“The sustained demand for banknotes has been amplified by sharp increases in public demand during major crises, which highlights the unique role and attributes of physical currency,” the ECB states. The 2014-15 sovereign debt crisis in Greece led to massive bank runs, and people had no access to their funds. There were surges in withdrawals during COVID and at the start of the Russia-Ukraine wa,r and the ECB knows that banks simply do not have the liquidity to provide customers with cash in the event of a true bank run.

Central banks are issuing specific instructions for civil protection. “For instance, authorities in the Netherlands, Austria and Finland suggest holding amounts ranging from approximately €70 to €100 per household member or enough to cover essential needs for about 72 hours. Some jurisdictions, like Finland, are even exploring “disruption-proof” ATMs to ensure access during digital failures.” The ECB is keenly aware that trouble is around the corner.

European ECB Banking Crisis

The recent power outages in Spain and Portugal led to a significant disruption in the financial system. Grids will be targeted during times of war. Nations bordering Russia have seen a much higher demand for cash withdrawals, “with issuance levels reaching six to ten standard deviations above their respective historical norms.” The ECB reports that this level of deviation is “highly unusual,” but in times of panic, people hoard as a survival tactic. There was a 36% spike in daily net banknote issuance during the first month of the war. Expect this figure to multiply when it becomes obvious that the war is expanding beyond Russia and Ukraine.

Keep cash on hand for day-to-day needs, but remember that its use will be increasingly limited, and its portability across borders almost impossible. The real hedge will remain tangible assets that cannot be canceled by government. Next year will be devastating. If you are in Europe, the best thing you can do is get your affairs in order and leave immediately.

Sep 25 2025

Gold – Dow & People Pretending to be Me.


Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Gold and IBM Share Certificate

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for your ground-breaking analysis. I was a gold-only bug, and you opened my eyes to capital flows, explaining that gold rises not due to inflation, but geopolitical tensions. You have been forewarned that when Europe is flirting with war, the capital will flee, and it will be on every boat to the USA. We have gold making new highs, and the Dow is also reaching new highs. Something the gold crowd always said the opposite. You said gold could test the $5,000 level due to war as soon as 2026, I believe. At the same time, others continue to claim that the stock market will crash and revise their forecasts with every new high.

I just wanted to say you are honestly making a difference. I know people steal your work and claim it as their own. I discovered some people created channels and pretend to be you on Telegram and elsewhere. I do not understand their game. You do not solicit money. I’m not sure if they are trying to ruin your reputation. I reported what I encountered to your staff.

I know you have more money than God because you don’t raise your prices, you don’t solicit money, and you don’t sell advertising.

Please do not get discouraged.

Cheers

FDS

REPLY: Thank you for bringing that to our attention. I am not sure what is going on with people pretending to be me. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK INDIVIDUALLY, AND I DO NOT MANAGE MONEY. If you want to know about an individual share that is on Socrates. Some funds trade based on Socrates, but sorry, – been there, done that. I am far too busy to manage money. I am honestly working seven days a week, from 7 AM to midnight, and I still can’t get ahead of the workload. Anyone pretending to be me, telling you to buy a specific stock or promising to manage your money, is a fraud. Let our staff know.

As far as the market is concerned, I will do a Private Post this week. There can be a brief correction in the share market after this week. But it still does not appear to be a major long-term bear market or crash. As far as gold is concerned, the key resistance is really $4500 for next year. Gold has to pass that, and then it would test the $5,000 level. Exceeding that level, the expectations will then jump to $10,000. It gets dicey after $5,000.

If I had more money than God, I suppose that means people wouldn’t contribute to any church.

Sep 24 2025

When Monetary and Fiscal Policies Blur


Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

fiscal_cliff_10937_h264_19201 ezgif.com video to gif converter

The Federal Reserve should operate independently of Washington. It does not. Stephan Miran was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by Donald Trump. Miran, who served as a top economic adviser to Trump and served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, switched from controlling fiscal to monetary policy and now the lines between Washington and the Fed are completely blurred.

Miran believes interest rates should eventually be cut in half. He mistakenly believes the old Keynesian theories that lower rates will result in higher employment. “The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent,” he said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”

“The upshot is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” he said. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.”

I’ve explained numerous times why this line of thinking is flawed. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future. Not a single client has suggested that they were waiting for rates to drop to expand their business. Look what happened in Japan when they artificially lowered rates to zero for decades. The economy stagnated because confidence was lost.

The reason politicians love low rates is not to help the people but to help government. With the US national debt now spiraling out of control, every uptick in rates increases the cost of debt service. Trump knows this. Biden knew it too. Every administration eventually leans on the Fed to keep rates down because the alternative is insolvency.

Trump appointed Miran for a reason. Powell was unwilling to play into politics, but Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, is an installed loyalist who will ensure the government’s ability to borrow continues.

Sep 23 2025

Watch Moldova


Posted originally on CTH on September 22, 2025 | Sundance

There is considerable anxiety afoot, as EU security elements begin bolstering the internal police force of Moldova. It appears their concern is widespread unrest could follow the election results. Why would the official government of Moldovan President Maia Sandu be concerned about post-election turmoil?

Well, consider that Maia Sandu’s election last year was not won by a vote of the majority of Moldovans who physically reside in Moldova, but by a reported half-million mail-in ballots that tipped the scales in her favor. Those same mail-in ballots also changed the results of the referendum that asked Moldovan citizens if they wanted to join the European Union.

The stakes are very high for the EU and NATO alignment. If the Moldova parliamentary election results in a more pro-Russian governing body, the best designed plans of the U.K/NATO/EU and global intelligence apparatus could be significantly damaged.

Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is in a tenuous position. Sandu and PAS are globalists, influenced a great deal by European money and promises of affluence. Their collective opposition within Moldova is an assembly of nationalist voices represented by Patriotic Bloc, a new group of existing pro-Russian opposition parties.

Polls have indicated that Sandu’s PAS is likely to lose the parliamentary election, but the European Union cannot accept this outcome. Thus, the issue of these mysterious mail-in ballots surfaces again, and that explains why the Moldovan police and EU security forces are preparing for civil unrest.

In August, the leaders of France (Macron), Germany (Merz) and Poland (Tusk) visited the capital city of Chisinau to proclaim their support for President Maia Sandu and the pro-EU movement. The trio, also called the ‘coalition of the willing’, represent fierce opposition to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

On the economic front, Moldovan citizens have been coping with high inflation, energy shortages and have seen little progress in the Sandu pledge to clean up internal bribery and govt corruption. Meanwhile, Sandu has been traveling around Europe and Great Britain seeking financial support that can deflect some of the economic issues.

The election next weekend represents a critical inflection point for Europe. If the EU loses the support of the Moldovan parliament, it would be much harder to utilize the Romanian NATO military base for a European war against Russia, a war they have been trying to provoke with increased aggressiveness.

Shortly before King Charles orchestrated the second state visit by President Trump, the U.K monarch met with Sandu to express his strategic support against a common enemy, Vladimir Putin (pictured below).  However, it can be reasonably argued the majority of the people who live within Moldova do not hold the same opinion. They do not want war with Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is watching this unfold, while hearing from the pro-Russian elements who live within the Moldavian region known as Transnistria. Indeed, much like the Donbas and eastern Ukraine region, where Western forces within Ukraine attacked the Russian enclaves, there are indications of the same dynamic within eastern Moldova.

If the EU security services think they will lose the election in Moldova, Sandu will cancel it.

Watch Moldova!

Sep 22 2025

Mass Protests Against Austerity Measures in France


Posted originally on Sep 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Over 100,000 people took to the streets of France to protest government mismanagement. The people are demanding that Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu reverse former Prime Minister François Bayrou’s decision to cut €44 billion in services. The government cannot maintain steady confidence and therefore leadership; Lecornu is the fifth prime minister in two years under President Emmanuel Macron. The deeper-rooted issue of fiscal irresponsibility has been lost, as the people still believe government spending can be offset through taxation.

Thousands voiced support for the Zucman tax, named after economist Gabriel Zucman, who proposed a 2% rate on assets surpassing €100 million. The proposal was passed by the lower house of Parliament but later blocked by the Senate over the summer. The proposal was estimated to generate 20 billion euros annually and would have impacted 1,800 wealthy households. What if people flee for a nation with lower taxes? The European Union is actually considering a bloc-wide taxation on wealth to compensate for fleeing capital.

As for France, the national debt stands at €3.345 trillion, equivalent to approximately 113.9% of its GDP. France surpassed the 100% debt-to-GDP threshold in 2020 and has been rapidly spiraling further down the hole. Estimates state that debt levels will rise to 121% of GDP by 2027, and yet, the government continues to spend without regard for budgets. Government spending will reach a low estimate of 57.6% of GDP in 2025.

France spends 14% of its GDP on its failing pension system, and retirees now outearn working-aged adults. Social protections at large compose 40% of national spending. Macron raised the defense budget to 64 billion euros or 2.3% of GDP, with plans to increase spending to 3.5%-5% to meet NATO requirements.

Governments raise taxes, cut services, and claim they are “saving.” The people believe that everyone must pay their fair share into the system and are targeting the rich for paying less. The rich could give all their wealth to the French government and it would still remain beneath current spending and debt levels.

Austerity never works because it punishes the people for the errors of politicians. The bureaucrats waste money on ideological projects, endless regulation, and absurd pension promises, and when the bill comes due, they demand ordinary citizens tighten their belts to pay. This is why the French are famous for taking to the streets.