Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Posted May 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Interview: Martin Armstrong on Why the CBDC Will Fail and a Great Depression is About to Begin
Tag Archives: IMF
Interview: The Real Rate of Inflation
Is Zelensky Concerned About a Coup?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted May 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
There are quiet whispers inside various EU governments that Zelensky should resign. Inside Ukraine, it was highly suspicious that in January, conveniently, Ukraine’s leading officials in the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (similar to our FBI) charged with protecting the state and the people against illegal actions by those in power all died in a crash together. There were some who had concerns starting to question Zelensky’s ethical position with respect to the people.
This helicopter carrying the leadership team of Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs crashed in the Kyiv region killing at least 14 people, including all nine people on board, according to officials. A further 25 people were injured on the ground including 11 children. Fourteen bodies were found at the crash site, including one child and all nine people who were on board the helicopter – six ministry officials and three crew members, all died according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SES).
Ukrainian National Police confirmed that Ministry of Internal Affairs Denis Monastyrsky, First Deputy Minister Yevheniy Yenin, and State Secretary Yuriy Lubkovychis were among the dead. Monastyrsky actually had replaced the previous Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov following his unexpected resignation. Avakov was a political heavyweight. Avakov was considered by many to be one of the most powerful people in the country after Zelenskey and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. He oversaw about 300,000 law enforcement officials and a significant share of Ukraine’s annual budget expenditures.
There emerged a conflict between Zelensky and Avakov and it was widely assumed that Zelensky was preparing to fire Mr Avakov who was investigating internal corruption. His removal allowed Zelensky to seize more power and control any investigation into his personal dealings. This was no different than Biden telling the IRS to stop investigating his son Hunter.
Based on information and belief, Zelensky is very concerned about the “traitors” he defines as simply against him, not the people or the country. The rumors are that there are many beginning to question Zelensky’s true patriotism and his willingness to have all of Ukraine destroyed for his deal with Blackrock rather than show the slightest concern about the people of Ukraine. Avakov had served as head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs continuously since 2014. During that time, he oversaw the activities of the police and the National Guard. His removal was to cement Zelensky as a virtual dictator.
This has raised questions about the helicopter crash that eliminated Zelensky’s hand-selected Ministry of Internal Affairs who had his back.
When we look at the ECM calculated from the move of Russia to protect the Donbas from the Ukrainians in the civil war instigated by the United States Neocons, it does not appear that Zelensky’s grand scheme to make Ukraine the greatest European investment of all time with Blackrock will succeed. Why the Ukrainian people are willing to sacrifice their country all for the Donbas is insane. They had a country for the first time. The computer is suggesting it is highly doubtful that Ukraine will even survive post-2026. On top of that, we are headed into world war post-2024.
Romania & Moldavia
Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange Re-Posted May 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Can you add Romania and Moldavia currencies to Socrates? I greatly appreciate your response to Gold.
HR
ANSWER: Yes, we will add them. I hope I translated your question correctly. If there are other currencies people want to add, drop a request.
The Gold Crash & Our Fate
Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted May 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty; Socrates is absolutely amazing. At the start of the year, you showed April as a key turning point in gold followed by May June. The weekly array projected this was the week for the Directional Change. There is nobody with a system like this, which brings to mind its forecasts for war. Ukrainians are out of their mind to go against the trend. They never even considered what if they lose. It seems like a fool’s bet. This not about just occupying the Donbas which has always been Russian. This is about destroying Russia. They should listen to Socrates to save their own country.
Thank you so much for bringing Socrates to the public rather than just institutions.
HR
ANSWER: I know. These forecasts are not my personal opinion. When you put the entire world together, the trend becomes obvious. Just as I said Ukraine needs to lose to save the world, I also know that we will not all escape the end conclusion. Just as a Serb assassinated the Archduke in Sariavo which began World War I, this entire region is notorious for personal grudges and hatreds that draw in the entire world.
Schwab may have taken our forecast for 2032 and rephrased it as his Great Reset and is hoping to push the falling tree into his direction, that too will fail. But between here and 2032, we are entering a phase of chaos and havoc. I wish I could prevent it, but that is just our fate.
Ukrainian Ancient Coin brings more than $5 million at Auction Today
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted May 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The Balkck Sea Trade – Tauric Chersonesus, Panticapaeum.
This is probably the finest known Gold Stater (circa 350-300AD) of Panticapaeum, which was the most powerful city in the Tauric Chersonesus with deep involvement in the lucrative Black Sea grain trade for even back then, Ukraine was a major bread-basket in the ancient world as well. This coin is featuring the facing and bearded head of Pan, with the reverse of a Griffin standing left. The griffin type probably alludes to the mythical composite creatures who were believed to guard the gold found in the mountains of Scythia. The Greeks were wonderful storytellers with vivid imaginations. Herodotus describes the griffins as neighbors to the Arimaspi, a northern people each possessing a single eye in the center of their foreheads, who made constant attempts to steal the gold (4.13.1). Pliny the Elder, who accepted the story at face value, expanded it to note that the griffins made their nests in burrows in the ground which contained gold nuggets and it was these that the Arimaspi tried to take while the griffins were merely defending their eggs and young (HN 7.2, 10.70).
The providence of this coin dates back to Ex F. Schlessinger XI, 1934, and it was sold as the Russian Hermitage duplicates part II, lot 102. It was then sold in the New York XXVII, sale of 2012, where it was featured on the cover. Previously privately purchased from Bank Leu in 1991 in Switzerland. This coin is extremely rare with only a handful known at best. It’s artistic design is considered to be unsurpassed. This is probably the finest known. It sold at auction back in 2012 for $325.000 + 20%
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This coin just sold today in Zurich, Switzerland for 4,400,000 CHF + 20% Commission fee. In US dollars, that is $4,862,787 +20% = $5,834,400. This was about 1500% rise in just about 10 years. In all honesty, I have collected ancient coins since I was probably 12 years old. The field of ancient coins has expanded worldwide with major collectors from China to Russia. This coin was estimated at $1,250,000. The sale continues tomorrow with the Roman. I am truly shellshocked by the prices everything is selling for these days. As I have said, ancient coins are a worldwide market unlike particular national coins which fetch the highest prices in their home country.
Ground Reports – What is Your Experience With Prices of “Processed Goods” at Stores?
Posted originally on the CTH on May 13, 2023 | Sundance
Recently I went to the supermarket to pick up some general provisions. Given the nature of previously predicted food price increases, and proactive measures to mitigate the predictable prices, I haven’t needed to purchase basic foodstuffs in a while. Yikes! The prices… Wow.
Since we originally warned in ’21 about the waves of food price inflation that were coming, the prices have more than tripled on many food commodities. That part is not as surprising in current review; however, the prices of processed foodstuffs is, well, quite frankly astounding.
I am left to wonder how working-class people are able to afford the jaw dropping price increases in highly processed food products like condiments (mayo, ketchup, mustard, etc), and even coffee and milk. I knew the processing costs would drive those prices, but the scale is just astounding.
Beyond the foodstuff, what was truly stunning was the current price of non-food items at the store. Items like chemical cleaners, soaps, aluminum foil, trash bags, Styrofoam products, ziploc bags, paper goods, etc. I mean seriously, $8 for a box of trash bags, good grief.
After a review of the non-food item prices, I went back to the recent BLS report [DATA HERE] to look at the producer price index to see if the data reflected the scale of the processing cost that I was reviewing across a broad spectrum of goods.
Are consumers getting gouged by manufacturers who are taking advantage of the price shock inside the ongoing inflation?
Or are the processing costs, mostly driven by energy price increases, really that big a factor in the end product as it is generated?
In the topline final demand Producer Price Index [Table A above] you can see how we are cycling through the second wave of inflation that hit in the spring of 2022. The rate of price increase is lower, but the prices are still rising. That means the prior massive price increase is now baked into the product, and the current price will never decline. Instead, it will just increase at a slower rate than before.
However, that’s not the full story… and that is not the data I was most curious about.
The intermediate product costs are really where the story is found.
Table B [DATA HERE] Tells us a remarkable story.
Raw materials (unprocessed goods) are essentially in a deflationary status [-19.2% in April]. Meaning demand for the raw material has dropped well below the available supply. However, look at how much of the deflationary price is consumed in the processing of the raw materials.
A full 16% is consumed by processing cost increases [energy, physical plant, transit, production costs etc]. That is remarkable.
A random example might be citric acid. The price of the citrus base drops 19.2%, but the processing of the base into the intermediate good phase chews up 16% of the drop in raw material price and exits processing only 3.2% lower in price than a year prior.
Another example might be found in plastics. The petroleum base, and/or a combination of each material additive, might be 19.2% lower than prior year, but processing negates the lower raw material price, and exits into intermediate essentially even -.04, and then toward the ending +2.3% final demand change in the rate of price increase.
The PPI data is essentially showing the flow of costs of production as reflected in the impact during processing. We can assume mostly increases in energy, transport and distribution costs to bring the raw material forward to final good status.
Key takeaway, the demand side of the raw material is diminished. There is less raw material demand. However, processing costs are continuing to drive the final production price of goods that head into the hands of wholesalers who then bring the product to market.
The outcome of this are the prices of processed goods as noted in the products on the shelves.
QUESTION: Are you noticing rather remarkable price increases in non-food goods during your store visits?
The 12 Caesars
Armstong Economics Blog/Hoards Re-Posted May 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
As far as the 12 Caesars are concerned, I am doing my best to assemble a few sets. These are not easy to put together. Nevertheless, I am giving it a shot to see what I can do that would be reasonably priced, under that $100k people ask on the market. I believe reasonably excellent VF/XF sets for around $50,000. But this is not something that quantity exists. This is very hard to assemble. I’m still trying to fill in some gaps. They will be presented in a nice wooden case.
Epic – Congressman Byron Donalds Drops the Atomic Sledgehammer of Truth on CNN Panel
May 11, 2023 | Sundance
Congressman Byron Donalds represents Southwest Florida CD-19; he comes from good stock. After the CNN attack townhall in New Hampshire last night, Donalds appeared on a CNN panel to discuss.
Prior to Donalds joining the panel, the six other panelists were echo-chambering their narrative talking points without rebuttal. Donalds put that nonsense to rest. However, beyond the epic pushback, notice how the panel reacts to having their narrative challenged; this should be very familiar to people.
Notice how when confronted by an opposing viewpoint the panel uses a familiar tactic. Instead of discussing the policy points, the issues at the heart of the policy positions, the panel instead begins to question the person confronting them. “Do you want Ukraine to win,” is one question. “Do you accept the results of the 2020 election” is another.
The CNN panel approach is to make the person pushing back become the issue, because the points raised are antithetical to their belief system. This method of distraction is straight from the Alinsky rulebook about debating opposition. Byron Donalds succeeds because he doesn’t engage the nonsense. WATCH:
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Ron DeSantis Spent $500,000,000.00 For This
Posted originally on the CTH on May 11, 2023 | Sundance
The SuperPac supporting Ron DeSantis, called Never Back Down, has taken hundreds of millions of dollars from the Wall Street, billionaire, Sea Island, multinational corporation and hedge fund donors. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is injecting another $85 million from his leadership pac in Florida. All told, it is the largest single assembly of political cash in the history of presidential campaigning – estimated value well north of $500 million.
With all of that in mind, this is the best the communications team can come up with:
Now, please do not misconstrue what I am saying. I am not saying these people are just bad at their jobs. I am saying these are fundamentally stupid people.
This is the skillset of the professional Republican Party. This is what they are taught to do, study to do, sit around and spend millions in consultancy fees to come up with.
These are professional Republican operations…. They are also just idiots! This is why some of the billionaire funders have also paused, reevaluated and stepped back from the DeSantis nonsense. The DeSantis crew are sending out Instagram selfie-pics of their lunches while cheering for their team.
This is like the General Cornwallis version of political warfare. They sit around in their echo-chambered rooms and might as well put a powdered wig on their candidate. Everything is fake, pretense, manufactured and sold by the brightest consultants in the world as the stuff that “should work.” It’s genuinely hilarious!
Meanwhile, MAGA is an insurgency running circles around them, ducking and weaving through their ranks, and they are totally oblivious to it.
This image right here is almost literally who the people behind Ron DeSantis are. Not all of them, but overwhelmingly the majority of them are just like this disconnected insufferable bunch pictured above.
If that’s who they are, then WHO ARE WE?
We are scruffy, working class patriots engaged in the battle against them!
We are the workforce.
We are digital warriors, meme creators, artists, researchers, autists and ordinarily invisible people now considered dissidents in our own country.
We are the backbone of industry, the people who keep it all working, the builders, diggers and blue-collar workforce that keeps everything functioning. We are the people they will never fully control. We speak in languages they do not understand, and we absorb targeted ridicule as fuel.
We are the movers of goods, the truckers, the farmers, the nameless people behind the skilled trades that keep what they call American society moving.
We are the people who grow the food, pick the food, transport the food, stock the food, cook the food and facilitate the life they live. We are a visible, yet disregarded, insurgent force within their sphere of life that is never considered, yet we control the outcomes of every moment they value.
We pick up the trash, answer the phones, run cables to their devices, mow their lawns, solve their problems, control the flow of essential services and keep our heads below the radar.
We are the majority.
We are a self-reliant, freedom loving, normally peaceful and God-fearing assembly.
We drive them to their destination; we are comfortably out of mind until needed, and yet we are irreplaceable for the things they require.
We are armed with hammers, pens, rulers, mice, pickup trucks, laptops, post-it notes, stickers and alternate forms of messaging that circumvent the control mechanisms deployed to create our silence.
We are inside every facility, every institution, every meeting, every moment of their existence – and we notice everything.
We have eyes of eagles and ears of elephants. We are there when they do not expect, and we melt away before they notice our appearance.
We are smart, strategic, highly intelligent and carry a brutally obvious and pragmatic common sense that finds optimal solutions to everything.
We identify our tribe immediately and without conversation.
We see what they hide, we hear what they whisper, we decipher their codes, and we understand the complexity they create in their effort to conceal.
We control the physical world that operates around every element of society, and we value real and tangible assets.
We do not sit around pontificating eloquently about philosophic nuances; we get shit done.
We are the people who facilitate their ability to take us for granted, and we do so without issue, resentment or desire for recognition.
We are optimistic, affable, kind, generous, friendly, loyal, warm and quietly spiritual in purpose.
We are polite, considerate and slow to anger.
We prefer to be left alone. However, pushed entirely far enough, decisions are reached. Right now, we are tenuously staring with deepened gaze.
We are increasingly pissed off…. Big Time!
In every town, village and hamlet we are encountering the same conversation. On every porch, in every shop, at every event, the topic is the same.
Right now, we are taking this fury to the platforms of visibility where we hope to influence outcomes. But if that effort fails, and/or if the command-and-control authorities make the mistake of thinking they can shut down our visibility and therefore control the dissent, there will be no quarter provided in the aftermath.
The two biggest mistakes they can make right now is not understanding why we have begun to bow our heads.
First, our heads are not bowed because we are subservient, cowering or accepting the current effort to control us….
….We are praying!
Their second mistake would be to ignore that we are not praying for us…
….We are praying for those who trespass against us!
They may not like what follows, “Amen!”
We are resolute and of common purpose.
We are MAGA!
Centinel2012 
