Tag Archives: Political Corruption

Apr 30 2022

Crisis is Shutting Down – Capital Flows Begin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A Re-Posted Apr 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Now that Canadian banks have proven themselves completely compromised by Trudeau and his bootlickers, is there a “safer” haven for $CAD? US$ accounts held by Canadian banks are available but are they really any better?

D

QUESTION #2: Dear Mr. Armstrong, Thanks to your Blog I learned a long time ago that Europeans should get their money out of Europe while they still can (into USA). I did that, but now the Wells Fargo bank asked me to close the account. Apparently because since Biden’s new government came to power a new Federal law requires now all banks (including in Florida) to get proof of a residence in the USA. I can not even enter the USA anymore because I’m not vaccinated. Could you please help? What can we do now? Thank you.

FV

ANSWER: I believe a European/Non-American can open an investment account such as a money market in the United States. I know that Merrill’s money market is done through a specific group at Merrill that only works with international clients. They then report back to your home country where you have an account. The hunt for money is really global now.

The US is already starting to cooperate with Europe given the capital flows to the US in the wake of the stupidity over Ukraine. As long as the West continues to fill the pockets of Zelensky, who is now believed to have $850 million stashed offshore, then there is no resolution. Zelensky has no incentive to negotiate an end to this as long as arms and money pour into Ukraine. Let Donbas go with Crimea, which is Russian anyhow, and stop pushing for World War III. The West simply wants war with Russia, or they would not be sending arms to Ukraine and pushing Zelensky to settle.

For now, the capital flows are pointing to the dollar as the safe haven given the prospects of war in Europe. This trend appears to be in motion into 2024. Thereafter, we have the risk of a global war on a grand scale.

Apr 27 2022

The Refusal to Understand Economics


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Apr 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Once upon a time, I use to respect The Economist. I even took the back cover in July 1985 to announce that the Economic Confidence Model was beginning a new 51.6-year Cycle that was a Private Wave that would ultimately peak in 2032. I boldly announced the bottom in gold and the peak in the dollar taking the back cover every week in July 1985.

The Economist just released its cover article sadly demonstrating that the publication remains in the Dark Age of economics. They began:

“Central Banks are supposed to inspire confidence in the economy by keeping inflation low and stable. America’s Federal Reserve has suffered a hair-raising loss of control. In March consumer prices were 8.5% higher than a year earlier, the fastest annual rise since 1981. … It is the Fed, however, that had the tools to stop inflation and failed to use them in time.”

To say I am shocked at their reporting that is no better than a first-semester student in Economics 101. It reflects a complete lack of comprehension of how the economy even functions and adopts the politician view that they are NEVER responsible for inflation – it is always the central bank.

Clearly, they have not bothered to take notice that something major took place with the fall of Bretton Woods in 1971. Previously, the theory was if you borrowed, that was less inflationary rather than printing more money. Of course, that was a throwback to the days of Gresham’s Law when currencies traded in Amsterdam were based not on political-military power, but on the pure metal content. The debasement of the coinage by Henry VIII led to (1) the higher-based coinage being hoarded and (2) the decline in the value of English coinage trading in Amsterdam.

That theory became the Quantity of Money Theory which today is totally obsolete yet that is what we hear all the time when the Fed increased its balance sheet and therefore it should have been inflationary following 2008 but the Fed and other central banks could not create 2% inflation. That even led to some claiming MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) proves that the creation of money is NOT inflationary.

It was barely two months after we announced the beginning of a Private Wave in the Economist in July 1985 that in September 1985, the central banks were all called together and formed the G5 and then proclaimed that they wanted the dollar lower by 40%. This was James Baker’s brainchild that manipulating the dollar lower would reduce the US trade deficit and create jobs.

Letter Armstrong to Reagan October 1985 With Photo

I was summoned to be among the global experts who solicit advice but never listen. It is always a dog & pony show so they can pretend they summoned the top experts in the world and then announce what they intended to do anyhow. Of course, it is always pretended to be based on independent advice. However, that is just not how Washington or any government functions. So I wrote to President Reagan and warned that devaluing the dollar to reverse the trade deficit would lead to a crash.

sprinkel-11081985

The present ordered Beryl Sprinkel who was the 14th Chariman of the Economic Advisers to the President (1985-1989) to respond. It had been the rise in interest rates to 14% under Paul Volcker to reduce inflation that led to the Deflation. Capital poured into the dollar for the high-interest rates which peaked precisely with the previous ECM wave in March 1981. Thereafter, the dollar soared driving the British pound down to $1.03 in 1985.

Clearly, the entire theory that the Economist is still clinging to currently is unsupported by the historical evidence. The raising of interest rates to stop inflation led to the explosion of the national debt thanks to the servicing costs. In 1980, the national debt stood at $907.7 billion. By 1989, the debt reached $2.857 trillion. The raising of interest rates created deflation near-term but expanded the inflation longer-term.

The Plaza Accord set in motion the 1987 Crash. They failed to understand that lowering the value of the dollar may have made US goods appear cheaper overseas to reduce the trade deficit, but at the same time, it also devalues all the US assets in the eyes of foreign investors. After selling more than one-third of the US national debt to the Japanese, the lowering of the dollar by 40% would mean a 40% loss on their holding of US debt.

As the dollar began a free-fall, the central banks began to realize this was a mistake. The Louvre Accord was an agreement, signed on February 22, 1987, in Paris, that aimed to stabilize the international currency markets and halt the continued decline of the US Dollar caused by the Plaza Accord. The agreement was signed by France, West Germany, Japan, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Italy declined to sign the agreement. The Group of 5 became the Group of 7 – G7 (now G20).

The G7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Paris announced that the dollar was now “consistent with economic fundamentals.” They announced that they would only intervene when required to ensure foreign exchange stability. The objective was then to manage the floating currency system.

Democrats gained control of Congress in 1986 and immediately called for protectionist measures. The dollar depreciation agreed to in 1985 at the Plaza Accord, failed to really improve the trade perspective. In 1986, the trade deficit actually rose to approximately $166 billion with exports at about $370 billion and imports at about $520 billion. The object of manipulating currency to try to create jobs and alter trade flows proved to be completely false.

My concerns warning the White House that volatility would increase made back in 1985 were materializing. What they did not understand was that lowering the dollar in value also led to a shift in capital flows and the selling of US assets. Foreigners were suffering losses by financing U.S. trade by purchasing United States Treasury bonds in an attempt to ease the trade deficit criticism. We were advising the Japanese to buy gold on the New York COMEX, export it, and then resell which would also make it appear that the US exports were increasing. However, the lower dollar was then resulting in the importation of inflation into their own nations.

The press back then never understood the crash. I was called in by the Brady Commission charged with investigating the causes of the Crash. Of course, they would not blame the government. The best I could do was to prevent a witch-hunt on Wall Street and the final report casually mentioned that they believed foreign exchange had something to do with it.

There is probably nobody else who has dealt with more central banks than me from China to Switzerland and into the Middle East. To read this cover story by the Economist was indeed shocking. They are obviously still under the impression that inflation is the result of the rise and fall of the money supply that dates back to the days of Henry VIII. I dare say, things have changed slightly.

Today, governments have borrowed relentlessly. But the debt is acceptable now as collateral so national debts are simply money that pays interest. That is completely out of the scope of the central bank so it DOES NOT have the tools to prevent or create inflation. The politicians always want to spend whatever it takes to win the next election and then blame the central bank if it resulted in inflation. It is a sad day that the Economist is so out of touch its rambling and that of someone serious out of touch with reality.

Apr 23 2022

Wealthy Flee Shanghai


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The lockdown in Shanghai has caused immeasurable damage to the people and battered an already stunted global supply chain. The wealthy are now fleeing the city, as numerous agencies have reported a large uptick in immigration requests. The Financial Times reported a 7-fold increase in the search term “immigration” among residents.

The media has downplayed this story as they do not want the people to remember governments’ capabilities. As with the fall of many great cities, the wealthy are the first to leave. Shanghai may be one of the richest cities in China, but it is not immune to government tyranny.

Only 25 deaths in Shanghai were attributed to the coronavirus, but over 25 million people directly suffered from this lockdown. The lockdown was not about safety. Warehouses are beginning to open, but the world’s largest port ceased operations. Again, no world leaders commented heavily on these major issues.

Pets of the “infected” were eliminated by the government. There were reports of people jumping from high rises and others begging the police to take them to jail with the hope of having a meal. No world leaders have commented on these human rights abuses as they were done in the name of COVID.

https://rumble.com/embed/vxsuhy/?pub=4#?secret=5q4BFvk5ap
Apr 21 2022

Fannie Mae Forecasts “Modest Recession” in 2023


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Apr 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Fannie Mae forecasts a “modest recession in the latter half of 2023” and believes the house-buying frenzy will begin to cool in the US. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish direction to curb inflation has led the agency to believe that a “soft landing” for the US economy is unlikely.

“With the most recent inflation readings at levels not seen since the early 1980s and wage growth exceeding that which is consistent with a 2-percent inflation objective, we believe the odds of a soft landing are even lower. Returning to the Fed’s policy target, therefore, likely necessitates economic growth slowing sufficiently to lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, which would cool wage and price pressures.”

Naturally, they see mortgage rates rising. Home sales for 2022 are now predicted to decline 7.4% compared to their initial forecast of 4.1%, while sales in 2023 are expected to decrease by 9.7% (initial projection: 2.7% decline). Adjusted for inflation, Fannie Mae sees house price growth approaching 0% by the end of next year.

Mortgage credit is not a factor as it was during the Great Recession and the checks and balances are in place after the 2008 scare. New construction is also expected to help with the “eventual recovery” as there is a lower inventory relative to demographic demand. Mortgage rates are now hovering around 5% after rising 1.95 percentage points since the December low. A similar spike in mortgage rates occurred in 2013 and 2018 and led to a downturn in home sales.

Interestingly, Fannie Mae has specified that the coming “modest recession” is “COVID-driven” and even admitted that the business cycle is at play:

“We have previously posited that the current business cycle would likely be shorter than those of the past few decades. GDP growth surged in 2021 after the relaxation of many COVID restrictions – also supported by historic income transfers and monetary policy easing – which led to a swift recovery but also planted the seeds of inflation. Therefore, despite only two years having passed since the COVID-driven recession of 2020, the economy has already moved into what could be described as the mature stage of the business cycle. Specifically, the unemployment rate is below the “full employment” level, inflation is accelerating as growth slows, and the Federal Reserve is beginning to tighten policy. These conditions typically mark the beginning of the end of an economic expansion.”

Apr 21 2022

German Govt Release Inflation Data, Hyper Production Inflation Surpasses 30 Percent, Highest Rate Since 1949


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 20, 2022 | Sundance

The German government released their version of the producer price index for inflation, and they are reporting 30.9% inflation for products leaving German factories.  [DETAILS HERE] That’s the highest rate of inflation since shortly after the second world war.

The inflation rate is being driven mostly by energy costs which are more than 80% higher than last year.   However, each nation’s overall inflation rate is also driven by the amount of central bank spending they used during the COVID economic lockdowns.  The more any govt spent on subsidies, the more money they printed, the more they devalued their money and subsequently, the higher their current rate of inflation.

Germany is the largest economy in the European Union.  This level of inflation within Germany has major ramifications.

First, with this level of energy inflation Germany cannot afford to stop purchasing Russian energy products.  There’s no way for Germany to join or increase western sanctions against oil and gas they need to stay sufficient.  Germany is dependent on Russian energy.

Second, with Germany’s economy this vulnerable; and with Germany being so dependent on Russian energy; Germany will have to distance itself further from any Ukraine assistance.   In the background of western voices already being upset with Germany for not providing more support for Ukraine, their economic vulnerability explains their unwillingness.   The U.S. proxy war against Russia does not benefit Germany, at all.

Third, as a result of the first two points, Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be even more mad than he was yesterday.  Additionally, the German position makes Biden more vulnerable because it forces the U.S. to take a bigger public footprint on the entire operation.  This explains why the people in the background of the White House are saying Ron Klain needs to quickly extricate Biden from his unilateral focus on Ukraine.

If the White House doesn’t cut Zelenskyy loose soon, the anchor of fail Ukraine represents will further sink Biden.  Sooner or later the White House, Administrative Deep State, Dept of State and Intelligence apparatus along with the total foreign policy establishment and all the politicians who benefit financially from their use of Ukraine, are going to have to give up.

With countries like Germany needing to back away, it becomes harder for the Biden administration to retain the false front around NATO as a justification for their intervention and money laundering operations.

Additionally, if the French election goes to Le Pen on Sunday, well, katybar the door – because it’s complete and total game over…. Ukraine will be cut loose and someone from the CIA will assassinate Zelenskyy on the way out, leaving a note on the nightstand that says, “Putin did it.”

GERMANY – German annual producer price inflation topped 30% in March, the country’s Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday. That’s its highest level since the agency began collecting data 73 years ago.

The biggest culprit? Energy prices, which rose nearly 84% from the same month last year. “Mainly responsible for the high rise of energy prices were the strong price increases of natural gas… which was [up] 144.8% on March 2021,” the statistics office said in a statement.

It is one of first signs of the huge impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having on the German economy, Europe’s biggest. Producer prices rose by nearly 5% between February and March alone.

Consumers should brace themselves. Factory gate inflation feeds into retail prices, and shoppers can expect to spend more on everything from furniture to meat, according to Wednesday’s figures.

German consumer price inflation is already at a 41-year high, hitting 7.3% last month. Energy prices were the main contributor, up almost 40% from the previous month.  (read more)

Apr 16 2022

DuckDuckGo Search Engine CEO Announces Changes to Internet Search Algorithms to Promote Approved Content


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 15, 2022 | Sundance 

The information war continues raging….

On one battlefront, we have Elon Musk trying to push back against quasi-government control mechanisms that constrict information and the flow of discussion and ideas.  On a lesser, albeit similar battlefield, we see this.

DuckDuckGo used to be the preferred search engine for those who wanted privacy on-line and unfiltered, i.e. organic, search engine responses.  Unfortunately, CEO Gabriel Weinberg is now stating he will change the algorithm to remove independent information and media outlets and will replace them with only approved MSM results.

“Like so many others I am sickened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the gigantic humanitarian crisis it continues to create. #StandWithUkraine️,” Weinberg tweeted on Wednesday. “At DuckDuckGo, we’ve been rolling out search updates that down-rank sites associated with Russian disinformation.”

Riddle me this my friends:  The White House has officially admitted to creating misinformation, disinformation and malinformation as part of their strategic campaign against Russia in Ukraine.  NBC news gleefully embraces the strategy {SEE HERE}.  However, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has an official agency mission {SEE HERE} to “help the American people understand the scope and scale of Mal, Dis, and Misinformation activities,” and Google/DuckDuckGo/Big Tech have officially aligned with both U.S. government interests, promising to target, remove and penalize any entity engaged in Mal, Dis and Misinformation activities.

Think for yourself while it is still legal to do so.

The justification for the manipulation of information, the creation of dis/mal/and misinformation, and the propaganda campaign writ large, is based on a position that the U.S. is on the virtuous side of the conflict.  Where virtue is determined by the officials creating the lies.

Yes, according to the official position of the Biden administration, lying for the public good is essentially now the admitted narrative.

Putting aside the creation of lies, to advance a strategic geopolitical objective, the bigger admission in the U.S. government statements is that much of the information coming to the American public – from them – is manufactured, false, fabricated and wrong.

Simultaneous to this admission of manufactured lies, the platforms of Big Tech and social media are saying they will target, remove and block any content that contradicts the official government position.

In the case of Google, the dominating search engine for information over the internet, they state it is an infraction against their policy to espouse a claim “that contradicts official government records.”  Yet, the U.S. government is officially admitting the information they are creating for the government records, is self-admittedly false….. and now in comes DuckDuckGo with the assist.

Not wanting to overinflate the CTH position, but this now admitted reality is exactly why we have taken the following position.

…”There is no such thing as “disinformation” or “misinformation”.  There is only information you accept and information you do not accept.  You were not born with a requirement to believe everything you are told; rather, you were born with a brain that allows you to process the information you receive and make independent decisions.”… 

There are only two elements within the public discussion of information, truth and not truth.

In an era filled with “fact-checkers” and institutional guardians at the gates of Big Tech, let me explain exactly why it is important not to accept the speech rules of the guards.

When you accept the terms “disinformation”, “misinformation” or the newest lingo, “malinformation,” you are beginning to categorize truth and lies in various shades.  You are merging black and white, right and wrong, into various shades of grey.

When your mind works in the grey zone, you are, by direct and factual consequence, saying there is a problem.  You are correct, however, this is where people may make a mistake. That problem is supposed to be there.

It is not a solution to the problem to try and remove the grey simply because it takes too much work to separate the white pixels from the black ones.  You were born with a gift, the greatest gift a loving God could provide.  You were born with a brain and set of natural instincts that are tools to do this pixel separation, use them.

If you define the grey work as a problem you cannot solve on your own, you open the door for others to solve that problem for you.  You begin to abdicate the work, and that’s when trouble can enter.  The sliding scale of Pinocchios is one of the most familiar yet goofy outcomes.

Put more clearly, when you accept the terminology “disinformation”, you accept a problem.  The problem is then the tool by which authorities will step in to make judgements.  Speech, in its most consequential form, is then qualified by others to whom you have sub-contracted your thinking.

When you willingly sub-contract information filters to others, you have lost connection with the raw information.   CTH was founded upon the belief that truth has no agenda, nor does it care about you, your feelings, or your opinion of it.  It just sits there, empirically existing as evidence of information in its most pure form.

The search for truth, in all things, is the mission objective of this assembly.  Often, we don’t like the truth; often, the truth is bitter, cold, challenging and even painful to accept.  However, the truth doesn’t care.  Information in its most raw form is ambivalent to your opinion.  If you struggle to accept these things, that’s when you need grey.  The New York Times is not called the “grey lady” accidentally.

Personally, I am an absorber of information – perhaps on a scale that is unusual.  But I do not discount information from any form until I can put context to it and see if the information makes sense given all the variables present.  When something doesn’t feel right, it’s almost always because it isn’t right.

Often, I find myself struggling in the grey and complex.  It is not unusual to spend days researching, digging, clarifying a situation, only to discover the path to finding the truth is in another direction entirely.   Erasing everything and starting over is frustrating, but it is genuinely the only approach that works; and often finding truth is supposed to be difficult, that’s why it is rewarding.

In the digital information age, we are bombarded with information.  It is easy to be overwhelmed and need to find something or someone who has better skills at separating the black grains from the white ones.  All opinions in this quest should be considered; thus, it is important to allow the free flow of information.

I am not necessarily a speech absolutist.  There is some language that needs to be constrained if we are to participate in a respectful society, with grandma’s rules and knowing the audience.  The CTH has guidelines for comments for this exact reason.  However, those constraints need to be based on a set of inherent values.   When it comes to information it is important to draw a distinction from speech.

There needs to be an open venue for all information. Unfortunately, when we begin to apply labels or categorization to information, there’s an opportunity for information to be manipulated – even weaponized.  Saul Alinsky spent decades pondering the best techniques to weaponize information and speech.  Alinsky’s intentions, in the endeavor to change society by changing how language and information was used, were not good. He devoted his completed rulebook book to Lucifer.

Be careful about anyone saying we need to label or categorize information in order to control or remove speech from the discussion.

You were not born with a requirement to believe everything you are told; rather, you were born with a God-given brain that allows you to process the information you receive and make independent decisions.

Unfortunately, the collectively aligned group of U.S. Govt, the Intelligence Community and now Big Tech, are saying they will put every roadblock they can muster in your way as you attempt to navigate through the misinformation they control.

With that in mind, I would finish with this.  Be kind to those who cannot see through the misinformation, and do not invest too much time trying to convince them.  Convincing is an endless quest, because it transfers the responsibility of discernment from them to you. They will become dependent on you and that my friends can be a heavy weight.

Remember, “Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be. And whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.” ~ Max Ehrmann

.

“Some people are just nuts”…

Apr 15 2022

March Retail Sales Report Shows Contraction in Non-Essential Consumer Spending


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 14, 2022 | sundance 

The U.S. Census Bureau {LINK} reports the March retail sales data {pdf LINK} showing a contraction in sales overall (excluding gasoline) and a massive contraction in on-line sales.  As we expected, we are seeing the continued demand side contraction for non-essential purchases.

First, when you review the data, keep in mind all of the statistics are based on dollars.  Currently the BLS calculates the rate of inflation at 8.5 percent year over year. So, when we look at retail sales figures, we must remember the items being sold cost more.  Any reported sales figures in a sector that do not exceed the inflation in that sector, indicates decline in units sold.

The top-line for March retail sales is 0.5% growth; however, the rate of inflation is 8.5%, so the amount of goods sold is substantially less than the 0.5% dollar increase would indicate.  Subtract the sales of gasoline (w/ massive price increases), and retail sales are negative (-0.3%) in March.  SEE TABLE-2

A good category to note the contraction in non-essential purchases is electronics and appliances.  Again, CORE inflation in that segment is around 6%, and yet total sales were only 3.3% higher, meaning less actual units sold.  Compared to 2021, electronics and appliance sales dropped 9.7%.

Showing how much people are pinched, gasoline prices are around 60% higher than this time last year, yet gas station sales only increased by 8.9%.  This means people are buying a lot less fuel at much higher prices.  People have shifted their transportation habits because gas costs so much.

Two more very interesting notes:

Food and beverage stores only reflected a 1.0% increase in sales, amid massive inflation in that sector.  People are buying less food at higher prices.  The year-over-year rate of retail sales increase for supermarkets is 8.4%, however, prices in the grocery store are well beyond 20%.  Again, food prices are changing shopping habits.   You can see the same trend in Health and Beauty Care products.  Consumers are being thrifty and prioritizing their expenses away from non-essentials.

Secondly, perhaps the most obvious shift in consumer spending is noted in on-line (nonstore) retailers.  March retail sales dropped 6.4 percent for on-line shoppers, again as a consequence of much higher on-line prices and some product unavailability.

The bottom line of the Retail Sales report is not unfamiliar to us.  What we are seeing is a lessening in overall consumer spending, as the costs for food, fuel, energy and housing have skyrocketed.   The demand for non-essential purchases is what we would naturally expect to see amid a nation having to make tough purchasing decisions based on inflation.

The economic policy of the people behind Joe Biden is catastrophic, and it appears to be a feature not a flaw.

That said, wise people -including people here- know how to extend their budgets and make use of raw ingredients for multiple purposed meals.  Keep doing that as much as possible to offset the dramatic increases in price.  Look for sales, use coupons, multipurpose products and be smart with purchase decisions.

We can and will get through this together.

If you have tips for people to assist with lowering costs of everyday items, please feel free to share them in the comments section below.  We always find excellent ideas around us for small ways to save.

Coming from a family whose Tupperware® was a matching set of Cool Whip containers, I can tell you there are times when being frugal is a valued skillset.  I welcome all the great advice we share as a community, and I will not let these horrible government officials remove joy.

I’ve been broke more than most, but I ain’t never been poor.

I appreciate you.

Apr 13 2022

Inflation Rate Jumps to 8.5 Percent as Energy, Food and Gasoline Prices Skyrocket


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 12, 2022 | Sundance 

This is not going to be news to CTH readers and intellectually honest analysts.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the March consumer pricing data [DATA HERE] showing the recent surge in energy, gasoline and food costs that we have all felt.

The monthly increase of 1.3% brings the annual rate of inflation to 8.5 percent year-over-year.  However, the details tell the exact story we have been outlining for well over six months.   This is the second wave of inflation being recorded.  Grocery store prices (food at home), energy prices, and gasoline prices are all driving the inflation rate. [BLS Table 1]

Again, I modified Table-1 to take out the noise.  The data shows what we have felt for the past two months.  Working class families are feeling the pinch as their wages cannot keep pace with the increase in prices on products that are a priority.  Food, housing, gasoline, energy.

If we were using the old CPI method for analysis, current inflation would be well above 20%.

That said, there are issues also inherent and visible in the data for the non-food and energy segments, what I would call the durable goods side.  First, we are seeing the beginning of the durable good contraction getting quantified as we have previously discussed.   The prices for used vehicles, electronics, appliances and other non-critical durable goods are now flatlining, or even dropping in price.

Every indication within the economy indicates this is being caused by a demand contraction.  People are not purchasing durable goods because their disposable income is gone.  This lack of demand also shows up in wage rate suppression.  Despite high employment, wages are not rising – in part because there is excess productivity in the durable good economy.

You will note from Table-2 [available here] that food away from home, restaurant food, is not climbing as high as food at the grocery store (0.3% -vs- 1.5%).   Restaurants are trying to keep prices down and their profit margins are being eroded.  They are in a tough place, because if restaurants raise prices, they may lose customers who are already feeling pain in their checkbooks.  However, they cannot hold out much longer before raising prices, because the price increases are permanent.

The good news is the March data appears to quantify the apex of the second wave rate of inflation.  The rate of increase in food, fuel and energy will now start to moderate and slow down.  The prices may, likely will, keep going up, but they will go up less dramatically than they have in the past six months.  This price plateau will hopefully remain in place until late summer, that’s when the next harvest food costs will hit in Wave-3.

On the durable goods, what we will see now is a typical demand side issue.  Price increases for durable goods will quickly, if they are not already, be less connected to material costs and more connected to demand.   Obviously, the cost to manufacture, create, produce, transport and deliver durable goods is still experiencing upward pressure due to raw materials.  However, the demand variable will now enter more dominantly.

With wage growth meek and prices still rising on essentials like food, housing, energy and gasoline, demand for non-essential durable goods will drop. The demand decline should naturally put downward price pressure on appliances, electronics, used vehicles, etc.  Unfortunately, this also contracts the overall economy, creates unemployment, and indicates “stagflation.”

(MSM) – […] The consumer price index leaped 8.5% annually, the fastest pace since December 1981, the Labor Department said on Tuesday, likely cementing Federal Reserve plans for an unusually large half-point interest rate hike early next month. That increase is up from 7.9% in February and inflation now has notched new 40-year highs for five straight months. (more)

We will need to watch the service side closely now to see if consumers start to lessen travel, entertainment, and other service side expenses.

Protect your family.  Be frugal, wise and smart with expenses.  However, do not trouble yourself with dark imaginings.

If you are like most here, you have prepared yourself with commonsense actions and you are a doer who fixes problems, not a naysayer who sits around mulling over them.  Your family, kids and/or grandkids as well as your community can benefit from wise, albeit sometimes stern, counsel.  Stand strong, stand firm and stand resolute.

All of these challenges are simply that, challenges.  Work any problem as it arises, including for the kids.  And also remember, God is in charge, not you. So, listen to his instructions.  Listen to that instinct he buried within you.  Draw upon the strength that a loving God constantly provides.

Be a vessel for those who need hope.  Be a guiding light for those who feel distressed. Be cheerfully strong among everyone around you, and thankful for all the kindness you experience.  If you get stuck, start giving….

Ultimately, everything is a choice.  So, be the lighthouse, not the rocks.

P

Apr 7 2022

DC Mayor Bowser, Now Says She Never Supported the Defund the Police Movement


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 6, 2022 | Sundance 

DC Mayor attended an Axios sponsored “What’s Next” summit to discuss the future of policymaking, business and politics.  According to Axios, Mayor Bowser denied ever supporting the “Defund the Police” movement in her city; however, the truth is the opposite.  The mayor even supported the movement as it was painted on the road outside her office:

(Via Axios) D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser on Tuesday said she “never supported defunding the police” and talked up her plan to hire up the city’s police force to 4,000 officers — with 30% made up of women cops by 2030.

What she’s saying: “We and many cities across the country are facing spikes in violence, and we’re throwing every resource that we have in curbing that violence,” Bowser said.

[…] D.C. hit 227 homicides last year, the fourth year of rising murders, sparking renewed debate over public safety in the nation’s capital.

  • Bowser’s new $19.5 billion budget proposal would hire more cops to reach a 4,000 officer force within nine years, starting with a net increase of roughly 40 officers next year. (read more)

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Actions have consequences.

Hang around a one-legged tribe long enough, and sooner or later you’re going to start limping.

Apr 3 2022

Washington Post Laments Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban Likely to Win Reelection Tommorow


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 2, 2022 | sundance 

The Washington Post, aka the U.S. intelligence community, is lamenting the likelihood that Hungarian nationalist Viktor Orban is likely to win reelection tomorrow despite the efforts of the multinational corporations and globalists in western politics trying to defeat him.

According to the public relations stenographers for the U.S. intelligence community, Orban retains a great deal of support from the working class in Hungary, despite the influence campaign the western alliance has been waging to support his political opposition.  The framework from the Washington Post indicates just how tentacled the U.S. government is in meddling in the affairs of our allies.

According to the CIA publication: “He has angered his neighbors and triggered harsh blowback from Ukrainian leaders for what they see as a wishy-washy reaction to the war. Yet by portraying himself domestically as a steady hand navigating between larger world powers, he has gained ground on the political opposition in Hungary and increased his odds of winning a fourth consecutive term as prime minister in a parliamentary election Sunday.”

The WaPo notes the job of the global intelligence community and the western manipulators within the NATO alliance become more complicated with Orban likely to continue advocating for the best interests of his country.  This makes it more challenging for “the European Union, which is trying to maintain a hard line against Moscow — from all 27 members of the bloc — while also pressing Hungary on rule-of-law issues and democratic backsliding.”  Orban, an economic nationalist, represents another roadblock in the western effort to create new “democratic norms” through a one world order model of government.

(CIA Continues) – […] Specifically on Russia, Orban has criticized the invasion as an aggression and backed the E.U. in much of its response. But the country has opposed sanctions on energy supplies, and it hasn’t provided military aid to Ukraine.

All the while, Orban has signaled a warm welcome to 500,000 Ukrainians fleeing war — a reversal from his stance during an earlier migration crisis, when Hungary built a wall in response to people fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa. (read more)

Because, of course, no one can tell the difference from a marching horde of economic migrants from the Middle East, versus the compassionate position to accept conflict refugees from neighboring Ukraine.

Hungarian riot police officers stand in front of migrants at a collection point at Roszke village at the Hungarian-Serbian border on September 9, 2015. Some 400-500 migrants on Wednesday broke through police lines in Hungary near the main crossing point from Serbia, AFP reporters at the scene said. AFP PHOTO / ATTILA KISBENEDEK

On these nuanced issues, the intelligence community wishes to push a specific globalist and multicultural narrative, and those voices who would look at refugees from a commonsense perspective are, well, Putin apologists or something.  So sayeth the U.S. State Dept and their Big Tech overlords who collaborate with the intelligence community in the ideological quest to create the New World Order.

[…] the E.U. faces a major decision on whether to withhold billions in funding from Hungary as well as Poland for rule-of-law violations.

Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute, said there is a “huge danger in trading off the short-term unity of the war against the long-term unity of the E.U. as a community of law with integrity.”

[…] Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky applied some pressure on Hungary as well, name-checking every E.U. member — mostly applauding their support — before stopping to speak directly to Orban.

“Listen, Viktor, do you know what’s going on in Mariupol?” Zelensky said.

He mentioned visiting Budapest and seeing a memorial — depicting shoes left along the Danube riverbank — dedicated to Hungarian Jews who were shot at the water’s edge.

“Please, if you can, go to your waterfront,” Zelensky continued. “Look at those shoes. And you will see how mass killings can happen again in today’s world. … And you hesitate whether to impose sanctions or not?” (more)

Notice that sentence I highlighted above?

Notice how there’s no source attribution for the quote from Zelenskyy, a journalistic standard.  How did the Washington Post know he said those exact words.  ANSWER – the article was published in the Washington Post, but written by the U.S. Intelligence Community, who were listening in.  They slipped a little.  Every once in a while those little slips sneak through.

How was the U.S. intelligence community listening to those calls?  Occam’s Razor, Zelenskyy is an active operator for them, under their control.  There is evidence of this coming out now.

More on that later.