Monthly Archives: April 2019

Apr 10 2019

Preferred v Ordinary Shares


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A

Re-Posted Apr 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

What are your thoughts on preferred shares? Especially the ones with good quality DBRS ratings. Will they survive the downturn or will they fail?
Thx
FS

ANSWER: Ordinary and preference shares are a claim on corporate earnings and assets. Dividends for ordinary shares may be irregular and indefinite, whereas preference shareholders will receive a fixed dividend which will accrue usually if the payments are not made in one term. Ordinary shareholders are in a riskier position than preference shareholders since they are the last to receive their share in the event of liquidation. That may not be a concern in a blue chip company. Nevertheless, they also are open to the possibility of a higher dividend during times when the firm is doing well in contrast to preferred shared with fixed income.

Preferred shares can be looked upon as a hybrid debt where you have a claim on the assets, but like a loan, it has a fixed rate. Ownership of preference shares offers advantages and disadvantages. On one hand, it provides a higher claim on earnings, assets, and fixed dividends. On the other, it limits voting rights and the possibility for growth in dividends in times when the company is financially sound.

The good companies will generally survive. This is a collapse in government – not the private sector

Apr 10 2019

Trump’s Agenda is Officially Dead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Apr 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

 

We should not expect Trump to get any of his agenda items through Congress. Trump’s promises to replace the Affordable Care Act, invest in infrastructure, and cut middle class taxes have been essentially shelved. The Democrats refuse to cooperate on anything in hopes of using that against him in 2020. What this really means illustrates my concerns. Government has simply ceased to exist and all we have is a couple deadlocked in a bitter divorce.

This reminds me of the best scene on this subject from “When Harry met Sally” and how bitter a divorce can be. This is what politics has degenerated to and it is in line with our computer’s forecasts that this is the end-game for Western civilization. There is just no going back. Government is now a battle to see which side can destroy civilization first. Websters’ defines civilization as “refinement of thought, manners, or taste,” none of which we can see in Washington anymore.

The entire purpose of civilization is everyone coming together because the sum is greater than the individuals. Today, we have reverted back to the individuals and there is no longer any cohesive sum that is greater. We have devolved backwards and it will take the crash and burn of government before we can rise from the political ashes with hope of a new government structure that once again respects the liberty of the individual.

While the Democrats have officially killed the Trump agenda, what they fail to understand is that this is also the destruction of their agenda as well. There will no longer be a government of ALL the people, it is now a government of us v them. That is how civilization dies. It defeats the entire purpose of forming societies. Politics has become a confrontation to impose tyranny upon your opponent. The very core of socialism is to deny individual freedom. The state comes first – the individual second. Everything the American Revolution stood for is now completely overturned.

Categories: Politics
Apr 9 2019

“If you’re forcing it, then it’s propaganda, it’s empty.” Jordan Peterson talks about creativity.


Published on Apr 7, 2019

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“Jung was visionary thinker.” Jordan Peterson talks about dreams & creativity Do you want to support his channel? Please go to his website located in the link below:
Apr 9 2019

America’s Next Super Aircraft Carrier Is Almost 50 Percent Complete | USS John F. Kennedy (CVN 79)


Published on Sep 5, 2018

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America’s Next Super Aircraft Carrier Is Almost 50 Percent Complete | The 2nd US Navy Ford-Class high-tech aircraft carrier has grown 70-feet longer and is now 50-percent structurally complete with the addition of the lower stern, Huntington Ingalls Industries announced.​ USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) Flight Deck Activity | Life Aboard Aircraft Carrier https://youtu.be/yddGGgCdQtc USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) Activity Crew Member | Life Aboard Aircraft Carrier https://youtu.be/6TSCKKZFb5s Deadly Aircraft Carrier Defense Weapon System | CIWS Close In Weapon System Gatling Gun In Action https://youtu.be/zMzUaRYFHwg “We are halfway through lifting the units onto the ship, and many of the units are larger and nearly all are more complete than the CVN 78 (USS Ford) lifts were. This is one of many lessons learned from the construction of the lead ship that are helping to reduce construction costs and improve efficiencies on Kennedy,” Mike Shawcross, Newport News’ vice president, John F. Kennedy (CVN 79) and Enterprise (CVN 80) aircraft carrier construction, said in a written statement. HII ship developers have been employing a newer construction strategy for the Kennedy, involving a handful of techniques intended to lower costs and call upon lessons learned from the building of the first Ford-class carrier in recent years, the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78). With so much of the ship built, hundreds of structural units have been completed on items such as pipe assemblies, cabling, shafts, rudders and struts for the ship. The USS Kennedy will replace the USS Nimitz which is due to retire by 2027; the Ford-class carriers are slated to replace the existing Nimitz-class carriers on a one-to-one basis in an incremental fashion over the next fifty years or so. One of the construction techniques for Kennedy construction has included efforts to assemble compartments and parts of the ship together before moving them to the dock – this expedites construction by allowing builders to integrate larger parts of the ship more quickly. This technique, referred to by Huntington Ingalls developers as “modular construction,” were also used when building the Ford; the process welds smaller sections of the ship together into larger structural “superlift” units before being lifted into the dry dock, HII statements explained. Construction begins with the bottom of the ship and works up with inner-bottoms and side shells before moving to box units, he explained. The bottom third of the ship gets built first. Also, some of the design methods now used for the Kennedy include efforts to fabricate or forge some parts of the ship – instead of casting them because it makes the process less expensive, builders explained. HII ship developers have been making an aggressive effort to lower costs of the USS Kennedy. Officials have said that the cost of the USS Kennedy will be well over $1.5 billion less than the costs to build the first Ford-Class ship. The Navy received substantial criticism in recent years from lawmakers and government watchdog groups during the construction of the USS Ford for rising costs. Construction costs for the USS Ford wound up being several billion above early cost estimates. Cost overruns with the construction wound up leading Congress to impose a $12.9 billion cost-cap on the ship. At the time, Navy officials pointed out that integrating new technologies brings challenges and that at least $3 billion of the Ford’s costs were due to what’s described as non-recurring engineering costs for a first-in-class ship such as this. Nonetheless, service leaders have consistently said that the Navy is making substantial progress with efforts to lower costs for the Kennedy. Also, Newport News Shipbuilding – a division of HII – was able to buy larger quantities of parts earlier in the construction process with the Kennedy because, unlike the circumstance during the building of the USS Ford, the Kennedy’s ship design was complete before construction begins. As for the design, the Kennedy will be largely similar to the design of the USS Ford, with a few minor alterations. The Kennedy will receive a new radar and its aircraft elevators will use electric motors instead of a hydraulic system to lower costs.

 

Apr 9 2019

Interview with Lara Logan (April 07 2019)


Published on Apr 8, 2019

Apr 9 2019

Victor Davis Hanson’s interview on Breitbart (March 12, 2019)


Published on Mar 22, 2019

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Victor Davis Hanson, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor of Classics Emeritus at California State University, characterized Democrats’ ongoing leftward movement as “Maoist” in its efforts to “destroy the middle class and the traditions of America” and described the Never Trump commentariat as “careerists” angered by their lack of influence over Republican voters. Publicly released on March 12, 2019.
Apr 9 2019

SIXTY


Published on Apr 8, 2019

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Firewall host Bill Whittle visits the Grand Canyon to share a few thoughts, including his ironclad logical proof that he is, in fact, 900,000 years old.
Apr 9 2019

BREAKING: Court Filing Reveals Numerous Comey Memos Including Investigative Meetings, Sources, Methods and Contacts…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on April 9, 2019 by 

A late day submission to DC Circuit Court in a FOIA case previously discussed, reveals the content of Mueller’s probe & use of multiple, previously unknown, James Comey memos. Additionally, within the filing we discover how Comey documented multiple events, meetings and information surrounding the FBI investigation of Donald Trump.

The documents surface as part of the FOIA case [Backstory Here] where DC Court Judge James E. Boasberg -an Obama appointee and also a FISA judge- asked the FBI to file an opinion about the release of Comey memos to the public.  There are two issues: (1) can the memos be released? and (2) can prior sealed FBI filings, arguing to keep the memos hidden, be released?

In a very revealing filing last night (full pdf below) the lead FBI investigator for the Mueller special counsel, David W. Archey, informs the court that with the ending of the special counsel some of the memo material can be released, such as their existence; however, Archey also states much of the memo content and sealed background material from the FBI must continue to remain sealed and redacted.

The FBI will file a further declaration on or before April 15, 2019, to explain why the remaining redactions to the Third Archey Declaration continue to be necessary. (page 2)

Within the filing we discover the lead FBI agent was David W. Archey (background here). Archey was selected by Robert Mueller when the special counsel took over the counterintelligence investigation from Special Agent Peter Strzok. According to ABC: “Agent David Archey is described by colleagues as a utility man of sorts within the FBI”. However, until now his exact role was not known.

(Source pdf)

Following the conclusion of the Mueller probe, David Archey was moved.  Effective March 8, 2019, Archey became head of the Richmond, VA, FBI field office. (link) Due to the corrupt nature of the special counsel, this is somewhat concerning. I digress…

The first three pages of the filing consist of David Archey explaining to the court that some of the material can be released, but other material must be withheld.  He then goes on to reference two prior sealed attachments outlined as “Exhibit A” and “Exhibit B”.

“Exhibit A” is a filing from the FBI on January 31st, 2018, essentially supporting an earlier “in camera ex parte declaration” requesting continuance of a prior court order to keep the background material sealed from public view.  In essence, the FBI didn’t want the public to know what was/is contained within the Comey memos (including the scale thereof).

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“Exhibit B” is where the action is.

This is the original declaration outlining to the court on October 13th, 2017, why the Comey memos must be sealed.  It is inside this exhibit where we discover there are many more memos than previously understood, and the content of those memos is far more exhaustive because James Comey documented the FBI investigation.

In essence Comey created these memos to cover his ass. (pg 13):

FBI Agent Archey then goes on to explain what is inside the memos: It is in this section where we discover that Comey made notes of his meetings and conversations with investigators.

Along with writing notes of the meetings and conversations, apparently Comey also made notes of the sources and methods associated with the investigation.  Why would Comey generate classified information in these notes (sources and methods) unless he was just covering his ass because he knew the investigation itself was a risk…

The content of the memos seems rather exhaustive; it appears Comey is keeping a diary for use in the event this operation went sideways. (page #14, exhibit B)

All of those investigative elements would likely be contained in official FBI files and notes by the investigative agents.  There is no need for a contemporaneous personal account of meeting content unless Comey was constructing memos for his own protection. These memos appear to be motivated by the same mindset that caused Susan Rice to generate her email to self on inauguration day.

In the next section FBI Agent David Archey explains the scale of the memos.  There are obviously far more than previously discussed or disclosed publicly.  Additionally, look carefully at the way the second part is worded.

Archey is saying Comey’s written recollections should be withheld because it might affect the testimony of people familiar with the “memorialized conversations”. (page #15, Exhibit B)

 

This is an October 2017 filing, Comey was fired May 9th.  FBI Agent Archey is outlining Trump as the target who might adjust his testimony.  Again, more evidence of the special counsel focus being motivated by the obstruction case they were hoping to build. [Reminder, Comey was still FBI director at the time these memos were written]

The next section gets to the heart of why the FBI wants to keep the Comey memos hidden and not released.

In this section Archey outlines how FBI Director James Comey wrote down who the sources were; what code-names were assigned; how those confidential sources engaged with FISA coverage initiated by the FBI; what foreign governments were assisting with their effort; and what the plans were for the investigation.

Again, why memorialize all of this classified information unless the memos were intended as CYA protection for himself?

There’s also really good news in here.  Think about it.  Now we know the entire anti-Trump operation is memorialized in writing.  There is documentary evidence of the entire operation within these memos.  We did not know that before this moment.

Therefore, it looks like President Trump can add the Comey Memos to the pre-existing declassification list.  At any time, President Trump now has a set of documents he knows to exist that his office can ask to be released.  The investigation is over.

If the FBI was running an honest and genuine investigation; what do they have to fear from the release of the Comey Memos now that the investigation is over.

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Here’s the full filing:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/405516262/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-gtj781vTQdRUwWLPG0EE

Apr 9 2019

Devin Nunes Announces Lawsuit Against McClatchy News Group…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on April 9, 2019 by 

Ranking member of the HPSCI Devin Nunes appears on Fox News to announce a $150 million lawsuit against the McClatchy News Group for their part in a conspiracy to derail and manipulate the Clinton and Russia probes. –Details Here–

“The attacks on Nunes were pre-planned, calculated, orchestrated and undertaken by multiple individuals acting in concert, over a continuous period of time throughout 2018. The full scope of the conspiracy, including the names of all participants and the level of involvement of any agents or instrumentalities of foreign governments, is unknown at this time and will be the subject of discovery in this action.” (more)

It’s always important to remember when Nunes was Chairman of the HPSCI he successfully won a lawsuit against Fusion-GPS to gain access to their bank records.

There’s a distinct possibility Devin Nunes knows which reporters and media outlets were paid by Fusion (via Glenn Simpson) for their collaborative efforts. Was McClatchy paid by Fusion-GPS for participation in an organized smear effort? Stay tuned…

Apr 9 2019

Number Thirteen – Eric Swalwell’s Gun Control Coalition Enters Presidential Race…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on April 8, 2019 by 

Adam Schiff’s little toady Eric Swalwell has entered the 2020 presidential race; and therein the Club moves to activate the Second Amendment removal coalition represented by the Parkland Shooting narrative builders.

38-year-old Congressman Swalwell is one of the most slimy creatures in a swamp of bile dependent on slimy creature comfort.

(Via NYT) […] he has said the top focus of his campaign would be something else: gun control. His first major event as a candidate will be a town hall on Tuesday near Parkland, Fla., which he planned with Cameron Kasky, one of the Parkland students who organized the March for Our Lives.

“I’ve talked to kids who sit in their classroom afraid that they’ll be the next victim of gun violence,” he told Mr. Colbert on Monday. “And they see Washington doing nothing about it after the moments of silence, and they see lawmakers who love their guns more than they love our kids.” (read more)

Swalwell is not a viable candidate.  Again, winning by one vote, or ten million votes in New York, Illinois or his home state of California doesn’t help win the electoral college. Schiff’s little toady is an issue candidate.  The Club’s agenda/benefit is from the data within the network of Cameron Kasky, Emma Gonzalez and David Hogg et al.

Overall the “Parkland Activist Crew” has around 2 million followers within their social media reach.  Blind sheeple, ripe for harvesting. Believe me, The Club is predictable…. just watch them.

That said, we are still not seeing the launch of the ‘chosen one‘, the intended party donor candidate; however, we have now entered the timeline most favorable for launch, April to May/June/July 2019.

The DNC is predictable; it’s a club.  Inside the club the board members are debating viability within a select team of unannounced potential candidates.  It appeared like Joe Biden held the most board member votes; however he’s having ‘creepy Joe’ trouble.

There is likely an elevated internal debate now.  Again, planning and strategy is one of the key elements of the Democrat party.  It might seem weird at first, but the DNC club is not chaotic; and, from my perspective, that is their weakness. It makes them predictable.

The chosen-one would generally come into play immediately after the democrats have set down a larger trumpeted baseline. The chosen-one roll out would be designed to flow from the club’s baseline narrative. The Democrats rarely, if ever, go off script….

Knowing it’s likely the ♦UniParty DNC is following a similar ♦UniParty RNC strategy, we can start to put the personal characteristics and political traits together and contrast them against 2016. Here’s the way it looks so far:

  • Senator Ted Cruz was to 2016…. as Senator Elizabeth Warren is to 2020
  • ♦Governor Jeb Bush was to 2016 as….
  • Senator Marco Rubio was to 2016… as Senator Bernie Sanders is to 2020
  • Governor John Kasich was to 2016… as
  • Senator Lindsey Graham was to 2016 as… Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is to 2020
  • Governor Mike Huckabee was to 2016… as Senator Corey Booker is to 2020
  • Senator Rand Paul was to 2016…. as Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is to 2020
  • Dr. Ben Carson was to 2016… as Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke is to 2020
  • Governor Chris Christie was to 2016 as… Governor J. Hickenlooper is to 2020
  • Governor Scott Walker was to 2016 as… Governor Jay Inslee is to 2020
  • Senator Rick Santorum was to 2016…. as Senator Sherrod Brown is to 2020
  • Governor George Pataki was to 2016 as…. Eric Swalwell is to 2020
  • Governor Rick Perry was to 2016…. as Senator Kamala Harris is to 2020
  • Governor Bobby Jindal was to 2016…. as Julian Castro is to 2020
  • Carly Fiorina was to 2016 as…. Senator Amy Klobuchar is to 2020
  • Governor Jim Gilmore was to 2016 as… Rep. Tim Ryan is to 2020

Reminder, despite their current stumbling with their executive suite efforts, anyone who is announcing their presidential bid ahead of Speaker Pelosi and the DNC delivering the election narrative (impeachment or similar) is not part of the DNC plan.

Pelosi and Club leadership will not easily give up on an impeachment plan that took months of effort.  They will work to modify it, shift angles of attack, adjust to Barr and yet still hope to retain the goal for as long as possible.  They don’t give up on these schemes easily….. As we saw admitted this past weekend from Jerry Nadler, they are modifying their plans as each roadblock presents.

The “Chosen One” will likely surface during the April/May to June/July period when the legislative ‘impeachment‘ crew, the DNC crew and the media crew have been able to align the scheme for maximum political benefit.

We will most likely be able to identify the “Chosen One” by: (#1) the Pelosi narrative (when cemented) and everyone falls in line; and (#2) the “roll out” that accompanies the announcement. [ex. remember the Greek columns, trumpets, pomp, etc.?]

Once we get a few more names (approx. 16), and we discover the ‘Chosen Candidate’, we can start to have fun with the celebrity squares graphics and the top 16 contenders.