Did the CIA and Israel Create Hamas?


Posted originally on May 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

HamasTroops

Ukraine, Palestine, Pakistan, Syria, Haiti – war is indeed a contagion. Yet, certain wars are orchestrated years, if not decades, in advance, as those who read “The Plot to Seize Russia” will understand. Few realize that the war on Gaza was also carefully orchestrated years ago.

“Hamas was encouraged and really started by Israel and the United States to counteract Yasser Arafat.” – Ron Paul

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Yasser Arafat was the Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from 1969 to 2004, and President of the State of Palestine from 1989 to 2004. Arafat founded the Fatah political movement after the Suez Canal Crisis, which operated as a nationalist group and did not embrace the collaborative ideologies of Arab nations at that time. He rebuked donations from other Arab governments, although he did seek to form alliances.

Hamas originated in December 1987 at the start of the first Palestinian intifada. Unlike the PLO, Hamas was rooted in Sunni religious ideology and viewed the battle against Israel as a religious jihad. The PLO and Arafat recognized Israel’s right to exist in 1988; Hamas did not. Hamas declared Arafat was “a creature of Israel” and vehemently opposed his two-state stance.

When Egypt lost Gaza to Israel after the Arab-Israeli War of 1967, the Muslim Brotherhood moved to Gaza. Sayyid Qutb, a leader of the Brotherhood, was executed, and wheelchair-bound Sheik Ahmed Yassin became one of the top leaders in the organization.  The Wall Street Journal interviewed a senior Gaza official in 2009 who explained how Israel saw this as an opportunity:

“Israel’s military-led administration in Gaza looked favorably on the paraplegic cleric, who set up a wide network of schools, clinics, a library and kindergartens. Sheikh Yassin formed the Islamist group Mujama al-Islamiya, which was officially recognized by Israel as a charity and then, in 1979, as an association. Israel also endorsed the establishment of the Islamic University of Gaza, which it now regards as a hotbed of militancy. The university was one of the first targets hit by Israeli warplanes in the [2008-9 Operation Cast Lead].”

Yassin’s coalition eventually became Hamas, which the Washington Post called “Israel’s Taliban: an Islamist group whose antecedents had been laid down by the West in a battle against a leftist enemy.” Israel imprisoned Yassir for 12 years, but the funding to his organization continued.

Israeli authorities, under the guidance of the United States government, supported the origination of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1970s and 1980s, which later spawned Hamas. The Brotherhood established a large network of NGOs, mosques, charities, and other social organizations to influence Palestine and funnel money into their organization.

Brig. Gen. Yitzhak Segev, who was the Israeli military governor in Gaza in the early 1980s, told the New York Times that he assisted in financing the Palestinian Islamist movement as a “counterweight” against the PLO, which had gained popularity and international recognition. “The Israeli government gave me a budget,” the retired brigadier general confessed, “and the military government gives to the mosques.”

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Bill Clinton attempted to facilitate peace through the 1993 Oslo Accords which acknowledged the two-state solution. The PLO was seen as cooperative at this stage and not in defiance of Israel’s right to exist. It is difficult to overtake a nation on a national scale when they are playing by the rules.

We arrive at 2000 when former President Bill Clinton attempted to draw the “Clinton Parameters,” a proposed peace deal that would permit Israel to annex highly populated settlement blocs containing 80% of Palestinian settlers. The Old City and holy sites would become Israeli territory, and the nation would maintain control over the Temple Mount. Palestine, in turn, would be awarded 1% to 3% land swaps with Israel, and a $30 billion international fund would be created to compensate Palestinian refugees.

Both nations initially agreed to the idea, but Clinton insisted that they reach an agreement before he left office. The deal fell through in an embarrassing defeat for the Clinton Administration. George W. Bush was then elected and proposed a road map for peace, entailing a two-state solution. Bush had his sights set on other areas of the Middle East, as we know, and the US encouraged Palestine to hold an election.

The January 25, 2006, election resulted in Hamas securing the majority of votes. The United States and Europe had already deemed Hamas a terrorist organization by this point, and the election marked a significant turning point in relations with Palestine.

“I do not think we should have pushed for an election in the Palestinian territories. I think that was a big mistake. And if we were going to push for an election, then we should have made sure that we did something to determine who was going to win,” Hillary Clinton said in 2006, after the election. Who’s to say that the US and Israel did not interfere? Hillary Clinton said that she would have met with Netanyahu during her first month in office if elected president. Bernie Sanders repeatedly called out Clinton’s desire for war with Palestine during the 2016 U.S. presidential debates. Time Magazine has published Hillary’s speech to AIPAC, which has successfully lobbied 95% of US politicians.

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What is clear is that both Israel and the US continued to fund Hamas. The US, Israel, UN, and Qatar agreed after the 2014 Gaza war to send $30 million to the Gaza Strip each month. Around $10 million was intended to purchase oil from Israel, another $10 million to pay government employees, and the remaining $30 million to be distributed in $100 stipends to 100,000 Gazan families in poverty. The belief then, according to the press, was that Hamas was fueled by greed and would back away from warfare if paid off. Yet, Hamas is rooted is jihadist religious ideology—it was never about money.

“The PA [Palestinian Authority] said it would no longer agree to fund Hamas, and rather than let the terror group collapse, Israel decided on an alternative route for its funding,” says Dr. Udi Levi, who was the Mossad official charged with fighting the funding of terror until 2016. “That was part of Israel’s policy to buy quiet. Hamas demanded that the $30 million per month would be delivered directly to the ruling faction. It was naïve to believe Hamas would provide the money to the population in Gaza.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu penned a letter to Qatar in 2018 in which he asked the Qatari leadership to continue funding Hamas. Funding to Hamas continued long after the 2006 election by both the United States and Israel.

Blinken no ceasefire_in_Gaza Nov 6 2023

USAID had a budget that surpassed the budgets of the CIA and State Department, the recent DOGE investigation revealed. USAID spent millions on the Islamic Relief Agency, another NGO affiliated with Gaza whose members include Ghazi Hamad, an outspoken Hamas terrorist who promised to repeat the events of October 7 “time and again until Israel is annihilated.” Islamic Relief, better known at the Muslim Brotherhood, had known ties to Osama Bin Laden who attempted to take responsibility for the worst terrorist attack on US soil. USAID gave the Unlimited Friends Associated an untold sum despite one of their goals being to “cleanse” the land of “impure Jews.” The Qassam Brigades received between $7 and $30 million from USAID through the Mercy-USA NGO.

The American Near East Refugee Agency (ANERA), founded in 1968 after the Six-Day War, was one of USAID’s main recipients. The organization received a $12.5 million grant from USAID in 2024 alone. ANERA has only partnered with the Bayader Association and Hamas. They funded the Islamic University of Gaza (IUG), which was created by Hamas leader Sheikh Yassin.

The US government was well aware of ANERA’s involvement in terrorism. The Israel Law Center published a report in 2017 that found ANERA used USAID funds to support Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) kindergartens that actively indoctrinate children in hatred and killing of Israeli civilians, as well as other PIJ and Hamas organizations, thus enabling them to finance terrorist activity, which is forbidden by U.S. law.” Ten years earlier, the Washington Times reported that  “USAID continues to fund multimillion-dollar programs through American Near East Refugee Aid (ANERA), which is building a high-tech facility” for the IUG.

Western Islamism, a publication of the Middle East Forum (MEF), published a study entitled “Terror Finance at the State Department and USAID.” US taxpayers spent $164 MILLION on grants through USAID to Islamist groups, including $122 million designated to known terrorist organizations. The data in ‘Terror Finance’ paint a clear picture: USAID is complicit in financing jihad,” said Sam Westrop, director of Islamist Watch, who is calling for “a public vetting process of U.S. government grants to exclude any organization with even the most indirect link to an extremist movement.”

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It is no secret that US intelligence agencies have funded terrorism to destabilize the Middle East. The Deep State knew 9/11 was going to occur, no different from how they knew Hamas would manage to penetrate the Iron Dome and attack Israel.

Hamas was intended to counteract Yasser Arafat and portray Palestine as a terrorist-led state. There is a reason that billions have been funneled into supporting Hamas. Palestine is fully controlled by a terrorist organization, which gives Israel and the US leverage to invade. The two-state proposal was a temporary solution to grander goals.

California Loses Another Oil Refinery – Gas Prices to Rise 75% by 2026


Posted originally on May 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Oil Production Crude Energy 1

Oil refinery Valero has opted to close its operations in California due to excessive regulations on energy. Located in the small city of Benicia, the town is expected to lose 400 jobs, which the mayor is calling the exit “a major hit on the city.” Everyone in California is feeling the impact of Newsom’s war on fossil fuels.

Valero said its decision ” follows years of regulatory pressure, significant fines for air quality violations, and a recent lawsuit settlement related to environmental concerns.” “California has been pursuing policies to move away from fossil fuels for really for the past 20 years. And the consequence of that is the regulatory and enforcement environment is the most stringent and difficult of anywhere else in North America,” Valero CEO Lane Riggs told reporters. His company faced $82 million in fines dating back to 2003 for emissions, marking the highest penalty issued in the Bay Area Air District.

Energy company Phillips 66 abandoned its operations in Los Angeles last year, citing long-term instability due to political policy. California’s refining capacity has declined 21% over the past three years, and as a result, gas prices are expected to rise by 75% by 2026 if major intervention is not taken.

California’s gas deficit ranges from 6.6 million to 13.1 million per day. “. Reductions in fuel supplies of this magnitude will resonate throughout multiple supply chains affecting production, costs, and prices across many industries such as air travel, food delivery, agricultural production, manufacturing, electrical power generation, distribution, groceries, and healthcare,” University of Southern California professor Michael A. Mische stated after studying California’s history of supply and refining capacity. This will plunge the state into further debt and reduce the overall GDP for the entire nation.

California already has the highest gas prices in the nation at $4.616 per gallon. How will people afford to pay up to $8.435 per gallon in a year’s time? California’s excise tax on gas has risen 253% in the past 30 to 50 years, while the number of cars has increased by 38% and the population increased by nearly a quarter. “Meanwhile, the number of refineries has declined by 56%, in-state oil field production has fallen by 63%, finished gasoline stocks have declined by 98%, in-state daily refinery capacity has decreased by 36%, average gasoline prices for all formulations have gone up by 253%, and imports of non-U.S. foreign oil increased 712%,” Mishe reported,

Newsom had hoped to implement a ban on fossil fuel vehicles but was overruled. Voters cheer when he states he will tax and charge refineries for emissions, but they fail to realize that those charges will be passed down to everyone. The governor is eyeing the White House and believes he can implement these same failed policies at the federal level.

EU Reconsiders Trade Deal with Israel


Posted May 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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The Netherlands is demanding that the EU review its trade deal with Israel amidst the war on Gaza. Dutch foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp believes Israel is violating Article 2 of the EU-Israel association agreement, which states their partnership is dependent on upholding human rights and democracy. Veldkamp penned a letter to Kaja Kallas, stating that denying Gaza aid since March 18 has been against the “principles of neutrality, impartiality and independence.”

“You cannot starve the people of the Gaza Strip. It is against international law. It’s morally wrong. It’s dangerous. I don’t think it’s in Israel’s own interest,” he stated in his letter, in which he also states there is a “very slim” chance of a ceasefire. “I don’t have any illusions that Hamas will ever apply international humanitarian law, but from a democracy such as Israel, democracies fight differently, and Israel has to abide by international humanitarian law, and with the latest statements by Israeli ministers, such as minister Smotrich that he aims for a total destruction of the Gaza strip, we cannot ignore any longer such statements.

“We support the Palestinian Authority and its return to Gaza. We support the return of every displaced Palestinian for whom Gaza is their home.,” Kallas stated in a press conference this February. “When the time comes the European Union will also support Gaza’s reconstruction together with the regional actors. Palestinians must be able to live in Gaza. At the same time, Gaza must never be again a terror haven.”

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Israel has attempted to remain neutral in the Ukraine war, but in February 2025, it voted against a United Nations resolution that reaffirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity, stating they were supporting the United States’ stance. Israel has been accused of supporting Russia, although it attempted to provide some military aid to Ukraine through a deal with the US. Kaja Kallas believes Donald Trump has aligned himself with Putin and has even suggested he be removed as the president of the United States. To Kallas, Trump is standing in the way of the neocon’s dream of finally embarking on the next world war.

Brussels has attempted to remain neutral on the Israel-Palestine conflict. Member states are in disagreement. Nations like Spain and Ireland have criticized Israel’s approach while those like Hungary and Germany have strongly supported Israel’s military actions. No one actually believes that there will be peace in the Middle East. The United States has been center stage in the Middle East as Europe focuses its full attention to Russia. Yet, this could be a leveraging chip to push both the US and Israel to begin supporting Ukraine.

“As the occupying power, Israel is obliged under international law to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches the population in need,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Crisis Management Commissioner Hadja Lahbib, and Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Suica in a joint statement this May.

The EU is Israel’s top trading partner. The 2000 EU-Israel Association Agreement provides the premise for free trade between the EU and Israel. In 2024, EU exports to Israel came in at $28.6 billion, while EU imports totaled $17 billion.

How will the EU use this to its advantage? Trump’s upcoming meeting with Bibi is expecting to greenlight a full-scale invasion of Gaza. Europe is desperate for the United States to realign with NATO objectives and begin supporting its goal of conquering Russia. Europe now has leverage to knock both nations off their neutrality stance. As our computer has indicated, there will be a lot of major events in the month of May.

Wuhan Virology Lab Continues Gain-of-Function Research on Coronaviruses


Posted originally on May 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Wuhan Lab

(The Wuhan Institute of Virology)

America will no longer fund gain-of-research studies, thanks to an executive order implemented by Donald Trump that “will drastically reduce the potential for lab-related incidents involving gain-of-function research, like that conducted on bat coronaviruses in China by the EcoHealth Alliance and Wuhan Institute of Virology.” As a reminder, the Wuhan lab where COVID-19 originated is still operating in China.

“For decades, policies overseeing gain-of-function research on pathogens, toxins, and potential pathogens have lacked adequate enforcement, transparency, and top-down oversight,” the White House said in a fact sheet describing the order. “Researchers have not acknowledged the legitimate potential for societal harms that this kind of research poses.”

The US federal government spent over $3.7 million through the National Institutes of Health (NIH) on grants to EcoHealth Alliance. Around $600,000 was directly sent to Wuhan Institute of Virology to study coronaviruses on bats. The funds were distributed in 2014 under a five-year grant during the Obama Administration.

Coronavirus Cycle
Fauci Australian

Domestic and global terrorist Dr. Anthony Fauci once claimed before Congress that the NIH “has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” There are emails from February 2020 in which Fauci clearly states he is aware of the gain-of-function research happening in Wuhan. “[S]cientists in the Wuhan University are known to have been working on gain-of-function experiments … associated with bat viruses adapting to human infection,” his email stated, also adding, “there were mutations in the virus that would be most unusual to have evolved naturally in the bats and that there was a suspicion that this mutation was intentionally inserted.” The email was sent to Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, and Brian Harrison, the chief of staff of the Department of Health and Human Services. He urges the men to ask the World Health Organization to investigate the pandemic origins before the lab leak theory reaches the public.

Interestingly, Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) sent mRNA coronavirus vaccine candidates to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill on December 12, 2019. They were secretly developing a vaccine BEFORE the coronavirus was released.

Fauci CXOVID not Natural

The Wuhan lab in China is STILL studying coronaviruses on bats. In 2025, Chinese researchers found a new bat coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, which can infect human cells. Wuhan scientists have said they plan to continue studying this virus by breeding mice with human cells and tissues to study infection. China refuses to admit that COVID-19 originated in its lab, and thus, we should not expect any further safety measures in Wuhan, a densely populated city with over 8 million residents.

The Wuhan lab is part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), which is state-sponsored and controlled by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. The European Union sent the lab €161,811 in 2015 and 2019 for projects related to the European Virus Archive under Horizon 2020 research programs. In fact, the Netherlands has studied gain-of-function research n the H5N1 avian influenza virus. Led by Ron Fouchier, scientists genetically modified the avian flu so that it could spread between mammals through respiratory droplets. Again, they claimed that the goal was to see what could happen if the bird flu became transmissible to humans, but that was not happening in the wild. Fouchier found himself in a legal battle with the Dutch government where it was ruled a permit was mandatory for such experiments. Japan has also conducted gain-of-function research on the avian flu, modifying the virus to study how it could infect humans.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Institutes of Health (NIH) campus, and University of Wisconsin-Madison were all studying gain-of-function research in the United States. Now, the US government will no longer fund these studies, however, they may continue without federal funding. The executive order also entails that advanced transparency is required for these studies, but the truth of the matter is that no one knows the true implications.

WSJ 2009 Shrink Population Gates

From the start, I warned that COVID was not a biological weapon or its kill-ratio would have been much higher. I believe it was orchestrated and someone was simply paid to release it from Wuhan and that did NOT come from the Chinese government but from this same group pushing the Great Reset. I also KNOW for a fact that the Build-Back-Better slogan was being thrown around at Davos at the beginning of 2019 about one year before COVID was released.

Event 201. The world has widely ignored the October 18, 2019 simulation, co-sponsored by Bill Gates, the World Economic Forum, and John Hopkins. The 3.5 hour simulation depicted a coronavirus outbreak that passed from bats to pigs to people. In the simulation, the virus spread rapidly throughout the globe, overwhelming health systems and killing economies.

“The Event 201 scenario

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.”

Bill Gates, John Hopkins, and the WEF recommended the following after the simulation:

  1. Governments, international organizations, and businesses should plan now for how essential corporate capabilities will be utilized during a large-scale pandemic.
  2. Industry, national governments, and international organizations should work together to enhance internationally held stockpiles of medical countermeasures (MCMs) to enable rapid and equitable distribution during a severe pandemic.
  3. Countries, international organizations, and global transportation companies should work together to maintain travel and trade during severe pandemics. Travel and trade are essential to the global economy as well as to national and even local economies, and they should be maintained even in the face of a pandemic.
  4. Governments should provide more resources and support for the development and surge manufacturing of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics that will be needed during a severe pandemic.
  5. Global business should recognize the economic burden of pandemics and fight for stronger preparedness.
  6. International organizations should prioritize reducing economic impacts of epidemics and pandemics.
  7. Governments and the private sector should assign a greater priority to developing methods to combat mis- and disinformation prior to the next pandemic response.

These global agencies told us what they planned to do a year before the pandemic, down to silencing dissent and misinformation. Gates spent $1.75 billion on vaccine research and trials before the virus emerged. Nations adhering to the Great Reset attempted to maintain COVID mandates for as long as possible. The United States government now recognizes that COVID did, in fact, develop in the Wuhan lab and was leaked to the public. How that leak occurred remains a mystery.

Gaza to be Destroyed –  Operation Gideon’s Chariots


Posted originally on May 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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Over 2.1 million people are starving to death in Gaza, and yet, the international community has turned a blind eye. Hamas refuses to cooperate as they know they are outnumbered and overpowered. Israel has announced its next steps: “Gaza will be entirely destroyed.”

“There is no sense in engaging in talks or considering new ceasefire proposals as long as the hunger war and extermination war continue in the Gaza Strip,” Basem Naim, a senior Hamas official, told AFP.

“Gaza will be entirely destroyed, civilians will be sent to … the south to a humanitarian zone without Hamas or terrorism, and from there they will start to leave in great numbers to third countries,” finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, stated. Operation Gideon’s Chariots is Israel’s scorched Earth policy that will lead to “the conquest of the Gaza Strip and the holding of the territories.” Smotrich declared that the world must embrace Israel’s “occupation,” as it plans a full-scale offensive to annex the territory.

Gaza’s population has declined by 160,000 people or 6% since the beginning of the war, with people, primarily civilians, mainly dying or missing as it is difficult to flee when no neighboring nation will accept refugees. The Rafah Crossing in Egypt closed in March as Egypt does not wish to coordinate with Israel, believing the nation has violated the 1979 peace treaty. Israel has closed off its Erez Crossing to fleeing Palestinians. Syria is merely another warzone although some flee to Syria in search of a third location. Lebanon and Jordan have accepted hundreds of thousands of refugees but they have since closed their borders.

Greece, Belgium, Turkey, and Germany accepted a large number of Palestinian refugees primarily at the beginning of the war. Canada was offering special immigration measures to refugees, providing them with C$3,000 to resettle in Canada. The program is only available to those who have fled Gaza, as there is no way to reach the people within Gaza. Other nations will pay for Israel’s crimes.

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Operation Gideon’s Chariots entails forcibly evacuating ALL civilians to “sterile” humanitarian zones in the south. The blockade will continue during the siege, and those who manage to escape to humanitarian zones will receive limited aid. The operation will begin after US President Donald Trump visits Israel. Bibi claims Hamas has until Trump’s visit to release the hostages, but nothing is going to prevent Operation Gideon’s Chariots. Trump’s visit will simply green-light Israel’s forthcoming actions. Trump has already provided Israel with $12 billion in aid since taking office, which is in addition to the $3.3–$3.8 billion in aid Israel already receives from the United States.

The neocons seek to use the Middle East as a second front against Russia, and in this arena, they have the full support of the United States. Our computer, which has been truly amazing in its geopolitical forecasts, clearly shows that we were entering war beginning in 2014, particularly in 2027 – a 13-year period of escalating civil unrest as well as international war.

India Attacks Pakistan – War is a Contagion


Posted originally on May 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

India v Pakistan

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I fully appreciate that you have no interest in winning a Nobel Prize. However, the computer you have developed is far more accurate than anything regarding markets or geopolitics that has ever been created. This week was the turning point, as is May and then June, with a Panic Cycle. You forecast in 2019 that war would come to India and Pakistan in 2025. Nobody has ever been able to provide such accurate forecasts years in advance. I do not know what to say, but I believe everyone reading this should send a letter to the Nobel Commission to nominate you for this is more important than just you, this is about society making that one step forward for mankind, as Neil Armstrong said.

VS

Indian_Rupee W Array 5 6 25

REPLY: Thank you. Milton Friedman told me that what I was doing was important for society. He came to listen to me at a tech conference in Chicago. I am not sure if it was a Computrac or Market Technicians Conference. Nobody seems to have the records from then. If anyone were there and remembers, I would love to hear from you.

India said it conducted military strikes on nine sites in Pakistan in retaliation for a deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir, intensifying a confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbors. India said its forces carried out strikes on camps that terrorists have used to stage attacks against India, according to a statement released on Wednesday. This was an expected response after it pledged retaliation for an attack last month in Kashmir that killed 26 people. India said it had NOT targeted any Pakistani military facilities. Reports confirm that India fired missiles at multiple targets that, according to Pakistani officials, killed a child and wounded two other people.

The ties between the two have rapidly deteriorated in the wake of the Kashmir attack. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has accused Pakistan of involvement and vowed to punish those responsible. Pakistan has denied any links to the attacks and warned of retaliation if India takes military action. This comes down to whether escalation will unfold from mid-May into June.

Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian airlines, a move India matched. India has ordered Pakistani nationals in India to leave and reduced the number of staff allowed at Pakistan’s diplomatic mission. India’s military has been guarding the disputed border with China since 2020. China is a close ally of Pakistan and its top weapons provider. A war between India and Pakistan could easily see China on Pakistan’s side.

In a hypothetical scenario where India faces a conflict with Pakistan, with China backing Pakistan, India’s support would likely come from a combination of strategic partners, influenced by geopolitical interests and existing alliances:

  1. United States:
    • Strategic Partnership: The U.S. has deepened defense ties with India through agreements like LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) and sees India as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific. Diplomatic, intelligence, and logistical support (e.g., arms sales, satellite data) would be probable, though direct military intervention is less certain unless U.S. interests are directly threatened.
    • Quad Alliance: The U.S. might rally Quad partners (Japan, Australia) to exert diplomatic and economic pressure on China, though their military roles would depend on the conflict’s scope.
  2. France and Israel:
    • France: A major defense supplier (e.g., Rafale jets), France could provide advanced weapons and diplomatic backing, leveraging its UN Security Council position.
    • Israel: Likely to supply intelligence, precision-guided munitions, and cybersecurity support, given its robust defense ties with India.
  3. Regional Partners:
    • Japan and Australia: Diplomatic support and sanctions against China/Pakistan, with limited military involvement unless the conflict escalates regionally.
    • Gulf States (UAE, Saudi Arabia): Might offer economic support or mediation, balancing historical ties to Pakistan with growing Indian partnerships.
  4. Russia:
    • Balancing Act: Historically, a key arms supplier, Russia’s support would be constrained by its alignment with China post-Ukraine. It might remain neutral or broker negotiations to avoid alienating either side.
  5. Multilateral Organizations:
    • UN and EU: Likely to push for de-escalation, though Chinese veto power could block anti-Pakistan/China resolutions. The EU might impose sanctions if the conflict threatens global stability.
  6. Domestic and Nuclear Factors:
    • India’s extensive military and nuclear arsenal would act as a deterrent, reducing reliance on external intervention. However, atomic escalation risks would galvanize global pressure for a ceasefire.

This becomes very complicated. China’s Regional Influence is not to be ignored. The ASEAN nations (e.g., Vietnam, Philippines) might tacitly support India but avoid overt involvement to avoid antagonizing China. Then there is the issue of economic interdependence. For example, countries with significant trade ties to China (e.g., Germany, South Korea) would most likely limit support to India to avoid economic fallout.

India would likely receive diplomatic, economic, and limited military support from the U.S., France, Israel, and Quad partners, while Russia and multilateral bodies might prioritize mediation. Direct military intervention would hinge on the conflict’s scale and perceived threat to global stability. The overarching priority for most nations would be de-escalation to prevent a nuclear or regional crisis.

War is a Contagion

War is a contagion. It seems to unfold in one area and spread. It started with Ukraine, then Taiwan, and now India. Also, Carney in Canada has not waged military war against the United States, but he has engaged in diplomatic war because he is part of the WEF elite. He told Trump that Canada is not for sale, mainly because he has already sold it to merge with the EU. We are headed into a period of rising tensions globally, and as we will see, especially next year, all the old grudges will resurface around the globe.

India Lifted 171 Million From Extreme Poverty in the Past Decade


Posted originally on May 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

India Pakistan Bangladesh

Over 171 million Indians have escaped extreme poverty in the past decade, according to the World Bank’s Poverty & Equity Brief. While the West cannibalizes its future through debt and Marxist policies, India represents a rising pillar of economic power in the post-Western age. India has seen a real uptick in recent years under Modi’s government as he has profited from Western wars and geopolitical conflict. Additionally, the BRICS alliance has aided India in rising through the ranks to become an economic powerhouse.

Extreme poverty fell from 16.2% to 2.3% in the past decade. The standard for “extreme poverty” is living on less than $2.15 daily. Lower-middle-income poverty, those living on $3.65 daily, saw a notable decrease from 61.8% to 28.1%, aiding 378 people in escaping extreme poverty.

BRICS 2

Despite the elimination of the cast system in the 1950s, the nation was largely composed of the “haves” and “haves nots.” There is still a drastic difference in wealth across the nation, but conditions are improving overall. Poverty in rural areas fell from 18.4% to 2.8% in the past decade. Poverty in urban areas declined from 10.7% to 1.1%. The multidimensional poverty index (MPI) fell from 53.8% to 16.4% from 2005-06 to 2019-21. Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh accounted for two-thirds of reduction in extreme poverty, and yet, these states still host half of those multidimensionally and extremely poor.

Similar to China, India has demographic strength and no issues with declining birth rates. Internal demand is also supporting economic growth. India has benefitted from increased job outsourcing rates. In the geopolitical playing field, India has taken much manufacturing from China and is benefiting from global capital reallocation.

Yet, no nation is immune to cyclical trends, and India will not escape the downturn on the horizon. India’s sovereign debt is expected to reach 80-83% of GDP by March 2026, or roughly $2.14 trillion. India is embarking on a war with Pakistan, which will bring its own troubles. As I have warned, 2026 will be a Panic Cycle year in the region. War will sweep the world as a contagion, and it is not likely to end before 2033.

Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany in a Deeply Divided Nation


Posted originally on May 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Merz Friedrich

Friedrich Merz was elected as Germany’s chancellor in a second-round parliamentary vote on Tuesday after failing to secure the necessary support earlier in the day. Merz needed at least 316 of the 630 members of parliament to vote in his favor, but he received only 325 votes (51.5%). Like Mark Carney in Canada, Merz will be the final nail in Germany’s coffin. He is pro-World War III. Simply comparing the economic growth of Germany, Europe’s cornerstone of the EU economy, to that of the United States, illustrates that the greater the socialistic policies of controlling everything, even freedom of speech, produce far less economic growth. The German economy has shrunk by 3% or more thanks to COVID lockdowns, Climate Change, and Russian sanctions.

German GDP 1991 2024
US GDP Q 5 1 25

AfD Files Lawsuit Against “Extremist” Labeling


Posted originally on May 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Extremist

Political parties questioning the status quo are labeled as “far-right extremists.” And yet, these political parties represent the people far more than others in the Build Back Better category, who only have their bureaucratic interests in mind. We’ve seen it happen throughout the world, from the United States to Romania, and now in Germany with the rise of the Alternative für Germany (AfD) Party. Leaders of the AfD have filed a lawsuit after the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) labeled the group extremist domestic terrorists.

The AfD became the most popular political party in Germany this April. The party does not want to adhere to the EU’s open border policy, climate madness, or the Build Back Better agenda. In fact, they’ve openly questioned Germany’s position in the European Union. The EU would be completely lost without Germany’s backing,g and Brussels has been on high alert. AfD members have called for a “remigration” or mass deportation operation similar to what Trump is currently conducting in the US. The party has vowed to restore Germany for the people of Germany and implement mass deportation campaigns.

Their beliefs represent those of the German people. Yet, one would be hard-pressed to find a single article about AfD that does not include “extremist” in the description. German authorities have considered banning the party under Article 21 of the German constitution, which forbids political parties that “seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order or to endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany shall be unconstitutional.”

In no way is this party seeking to abolish democracy. Banishing a political party, however, does undermine democracy completely and silences the wishes of the people in favor of the bureaucrats. “Through our lawsuit, we aim to send a decisive message against the misuse of state authority to suppress and exclude opposition,” and that the move seeks to “distort democratic competition and undermine millions of votes,” the AfD stated.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced support for AfD over the weekend, stating that allowing German intelligence to label a political party an extremist group is “tyranny in disguise.” “What is truly extremist is not the popular AfD—which took second in the recent election—but rather the establishment’s deadly open border immigration policies that the AfD opposes,” Rubio wrote in a post on X.

“This is democracy. This decision is the result of a thorough & independent investigation to protect our Constitution & the rule of law,” the official X account for the German Foreign Office wrote in a reply to Rubio’s post. “It is independent courts that will have the final say. We have learnt from our history that rightwing extremism needs to be stopped.” Perhaps the foreign office has forgotten that a collapse in the German economy is what led to the rise of an actual extremist group.

The world has awoken, and all confidence in leftist regimes has vanished. The pendulum is swinging back toward conservatism due to the failed policies fueled by politicians who attempted to turn democratic democracies into socialist battlegrounds in the name of globalism. The people are rising not to embrace conservatism as a doctrine, but to reject the authoritarian overreach of governments that have lost all legitimacy.

Amish Win Battle Against Canadian Govt Over COVID Regulations


Posted originally on May 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Amish

The Amish had an extremely low rate of COVID infections, as well as for most diseases that infect modern societies. Regardless, the Canadian government is continuing to harass this community for failing to abide by COVID-era regulations. In particular, the Canadian government is demanding that the Amish community pay for non-compliance with the federal ArriveCAN app mandate.

The Amish do not have modern electricity, let alone cell phones. The government still insisted that the Amish download the ArriveCAN app during COVID, which was required to cross the border. Individual fines for non-compliance reached $20,000, with more than 30 Amish communities in Ontario racking up $300,000 in fines because their faith does not permit the use of electronic devices. They live in isolation from modern society and pose no risk, but the government was keen to attack anyone who avoided its authority. These regulations were never about the virus, but a power grab move for control. The Canadian government placed liens on Amish farmlands, destroyed their credit scores, and is threatening to destroy their livelihood because they did not download an app when the government told them to do so.

Leave it to top Canadian politicians to mount their soapboxes to speak of tolerance for other cultures, migrants, and religions. Now, Amish families are speaking out about how they cannot secure loans for farming equipment, removing their ability to sustain their communities all due to COVID mandates.

aMISH covid

Founded in 2021, the Democracy Fund (TDF) has been assisting members of the Amish community in their legal battle with the government. “The Democracy Fund is committed to defending the rights of the Amish community,” said Mark Joseph, TDF Litigation Director. “By helping lift these liens, we are ensuring that this vulnerable community can continue to thrive and sustain their traditional way of life.”

TDF recently won two major lawsuits on behalf of families. Joseph said the litigation “underscores the unique vulnerabilities of the Amish community to modern legal systems.” TDF went as far as offering free legal services to those impacted by Trudeau’s authoritarian COVID regulations. “TDF remains committed to their defence, exploring further reports of liens and fines affecting other Amish families across the province. As a religious minority with limited access to modern legal resources, the Amish face steep hurdles—such as restricted property transactions or farm succession—when liens are imposed.”  

Justin Trudeau called vaccine opponents “misogynistic and racist.” Yet, he went to extreme lengths to hurt marginalized communities who did not have enough of a voter base for exploitation. The public at large has erased the pain of COVID from its memory but countless people and communities are still facing the repercussions of COVID-era policies.