Category Economic Collapse

Mar 23 2023

The Fed Does Not Back Down


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, it’s refreshing to have Socrates that is totally unbiased. It projected continued rising rates into next year and the Fed just proved its point. It is not backing down.

Thank you. Socrates is very enlightening.

GS

ANSWER: I know there were a lot of talks that surely the Fed had to lower rates and start QE all over again. Most of those sorts of comments have no real experience in markets. They just mouth a lot of hot air. Perhaps instead of putting masks on cows, we should do that on the shills. The Federal Reserve had no choice but to raise interest rates although it was just by a quarter point. Not to do so and the Fed would lose all credibility and the market would then not take them seriously.

You MUST understand that this crisis has unfolded because too many banks were wrapped up in WOKE culture and hired people who were UNQUALIFIED to run risk management. Some were more excited about cross-dressing as a woman and winning the Rainbow award in banking than actually protecting the bank from the risk of rising interest rates.

In a statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, Fed officials acknowledged that recent financial market turmoil is weighing on inflation and the economy, though they expressed confidence in the overall system. “The US banking system is sound and resilient.” They had no choice but to make this statement.

“Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain.”

The Fed is saying that their rise in rates will in fact reduce inflation and economic activity. The banks have this yield curve risk and that is different from the 2007-2009 crisis where the debt was based on fraud. Here, the debt is US Treasuries so they are not going bankrupt from that aspect, but it is a liquidity crisis.

If these people who scream loudly but know nothing really about finance keep up the nonsense, they will only add to the uncertainly. This inflation is accelerating thanks to the war.

Mar 22 2023

The Banking & Debt Crisis Continues


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The banking crisis continues and it is impacting funds that have been buying bonds. Allianz, a subsidiary of Pimco, is writing off countless millions with Credit Suisse bonds. The banking crisis has been the result of artificially low-interest rates for far too long and banks were used to free money and buy long-term bonds all because they were making their money on the spread. Now that rates are rising, their risk management was effectively nonexistent, and thus the losses and widespread.

The Allianz subsidiary Pimco is one of the largest asset managers in the world. They have to now write off a loss in Credit Suisse bonds and it’s ain’t over yet as we head into April 10th.

Mar 21 2023

South Africa’s Power Grid is Failing


Armstrong Economics Blog/Africa Re-Posted Mar 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

South Africa is desperate for allies, economic allies. The country is failing and the people are suffering. There is international outrage right now misdirected at South Africa for its desire to host the Bric summit with Russia, China, Brazil, and India. The International Criminal Court (ICC) wants to arrest Putin for his war crimes, and President Cyril Ramaphosa is defending his position to invite Putin before the invitations for the event have even gone out. I warned that countries who were previously banned from discussions at the big table would turn to China and Russia for support since the West has abandoned them. “What about Ukraine!” the media cries. Well, what about South Africa? No one comments that the conditions in South Africa are WORSE than in Ukraine during an active war.

South Africa was in a bad spot economically long before COVID. GDP grew by a mere 1% between 2012 and 2021, according to the World Bank. The nation’s entire infrastructure is crumbling, and the power grid is on the verge of complete failure. Blackouts are common, and many blame state-owned power plant Eskom which routinely cuts off the power grid to produce “rolling blackouts” to conserve power. These “rolling blackouts” can last over 12 hours. This affects fuel availability, phone and internet coverage, traffic lights, power to hospitals, etc. It also limits the availability of food and water. Crime is more prevalent during blackouts as there are no cameras or security systems. Rape and crimes against women are disgustingly common. Civil unrest is so prevalent that the president issued a “state of disaster” warning on February 9, long after the situation became irreparable.

(click on the image for higher resolution)

Statistics vary but there are about 82 murders per day in South Africa. The South African Police Service reported 7,555 murders from October to December 2022. As you can see from the chart above, crime is rapidly escalating. People are murdering farmers and anyone with a surplus of food. “Most murders take place in a public place, such as a street or an open field or a parking area – or at the residence of the victim (including places known to the victim or perpetrator),” Business Tech reported. “The Purge” is essentially taking place in South Africa right now.

So what is the world police doing about this situation since they care so much about helpless nations? Nothing. The US government issued a warning that Eskom’s power grid will collapse. They are warning that there will be no water, sewage pumps, or fuel, and the nation will effectively come to a standstill. Eskom said that in the “best case scenario,” it would take 6 to 14 days to restart the power grid. Experts believe it will take longer if they can manage to restore the power at all. “What’s left after a blackout would be what was left after a civil war,” an anonymous source said.

Poverty and the ongoing conflict have destroyed South Africa. The media would like people to believe that the nation is an enemy of the West because it is remaining neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. How exactly is it supposed to offer any aid when its own people are starving? The West even had the audacity to ask South Africa to support the climate change agenda, as if they have access to stable energy. One can only hope that the Bric summit is permitted this year and Xi and Putin can offer aid to South Africa’s people.

Mar 20 2023

Alvan Bragg & the Destruction of the United States


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Mar 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

If Donald Trump is arrested or even indicted by this personally motivated prosecutor in New York City, this is not just un-American for the ruling party to use police power to arrest its political rivals, the United States has fallen so far that there is no coming back. Ukraine routinely impressions political rivals because it is the most corrupt government in the world. The United States is no longer the beacon of liberty to the world – it is showing how corrupt the legal system has become. New York City is not the Big Apple, it is worse than the most corrupt legal system in any banana Republic. NYC has surpassed even Adolf Hitler’s most notorious court which had a 90% conviction rate. The Feds in NYC have exceeded 97%. Those that escape are by mistake or they mysteriously die.

Alvan Bragg, the vindictive Manhattan prosecutor trying to climb the ladder on the dead body of Donald Trump, actually came out and said like some tyrant: “We do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York.” There is no Rule of Law in New York City. It is a complete joke and a fraud to even utter those words. What is next? Do they indict Trump for parking tickets for all his employees? Or perhaps he starts indicting people who bad-mouth NYC? This is the way these DAs rise to political power. They always look to charge someone famous and then run for political office.

Even Ramaswamy, the tech entrepreneur who recently declared his GOP candidacy, wrote on Twitter Saturday. “If a Republican prosecutor in 2004 had used a campaign finance technicality to arrest then-candidate John Kerry while Bush & Cheney were in power, liberals would have cried foul—and rightly so.” If anyone should have been criminally prosecuted it was Hillary for using a private email server to circumvent the Freedom of Information Act where people could have gotten her official emails and never knew about her private server. That impacted National Security – not hush money to a prostitute.

“This will mark a dark moment in American history and will undermine public trust in our electoral system itself,” Ramaswamy also wrote. “I call on the Manhattan District Attorney to reconsider this action and to put aside partisan politics in service of preserving our Constitutional republic.”

The Democrats have gone way too far. They have divided the United States and there is NOT going to be a return.  These forecasts I have relayed are those of the computer. They have never been my personal opinion. Forecasting war and that it would turn up in 2014 at the 2011 World Economic Conference was by no means possible from a human intuition perspective. In 2013, I was able to relay that the computer had targeted Ukraine as the hot spot for World War III.

The computer has also forecast that the United States would break apart and we would see a major separatist movement. I put that forecast out also in 2011. At no time did I ever expect that we would be the aggressor in this war, thanks to the Neocons, but also I never expected the Democrats to sink to such low a position of integrity that has rejected everything that this nation was constructed on.

All I can say, nobody has EVER beaten Socrates – NOBODY and that includes me. This does not give me pleasure or bragging rights. I had hoped that Socrates would have shown us the way to steer between the rocks immune to the Sirens as Ulysses on this voyage to a new world order, but one I see as freedom – not tyranny.

Unfortunately, we cannot tie Biden or the Neocons who control him to the mast in hopes that they understand that we have basic human rights not to be manipulated as their toy soldiers for their pleasure.

What will be – will be. All I can hope is that Socrates proves itself and perhaps after the crash and burn, someone, will have the courage to listen.

Mar 20 2023

This Just In – Western Nation Central Banks Organize to Provide Daily Liquidity of Dollars in The Event of Contagion Bank Collapse


Posted originally on the CTH on March 19, 2023 | Sundance 

This is rather remarkable and tells us something about the current status of the “western” financial system.  The last sentence in today’s announcement from the FED is particularly laughable.   Check this out [Source]:

That last sentence is nonsense.   When was the last time the ‘central banks’ worried about the supply of credit to households and businesses?  Total and complete nonsense. What they are worried about is the need to have readily available dollars, faster, to backstop banks that are supposed to be holding deposits.

Nothing quite inspires ‘global banking confidence’ like the need to swap dollars rapidly, from country to country on a daily basis, because the amount of currency in bank, within any western nation, at any given time, might disappear.

Yesterday’s monologue from Neil Oliver, and the recent personal banking story that structures his comments, is standing as eerily prescient right now.  SEE BELOW:

.

“This just in.  Everything is fine… the liquidity of the Western banking system has never been stronger”… “Look over there folks, Trump indictment, nothing to see here folks… move along now”…

Mar 16 2023

Swiss Central Bank Steps in to Backstop Credit Suisse Amid Financial Collapse – The Larger Geopolitical Dynamic is Clear


Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 

Before getting to the details of the Credit Suisse issue, it is worth taking a bigger geopolitical context to the dynamic.  The initial backstop sought by Credit Suisse was from the Saudi National Bank; however, SNB Chairman Ammar Abdul Wahed Al Khudairy refused more lending {LINK}.

This is where we need to keep the BRICS -vs- WEF dynamic in mind and consider that ideologically there is a conflict between the current agenda of the ‘western financial system’ (climate change) and the traditional energy developers.  This conflict has been playing out not only in the energy sector, but also the dynamic of support for Russia (an OPEC+ member) against the western sanction regime.  Ultimately supporting Russia’s battle against NATO encroachments.

Russia, Saudi Arabia and China are geopolitically aligned in interest against the western financial system.  As a consequence, when western banks find themselves in need of capital and cash, there is a layered geopolitical dynamic in the background to Saudi refusal that must be considered.

With multiple western banks now in trouble, Credit Suisse is also exposed, and, like U.S. Treasury/Fed intervention in America, the Swiss central bank has stepped in to backstop the looming collapse.

In the big picture we are seeing the ramifications of the ‘Build Back Better‘ agenda impacting the banking and finance sector which spearheaded it.  I am not seeing this discussed anywhere, as the western governments of the collapsing banks are being forced to intervene.

(Reuters) – Credit Suisse on Thursday said it was taking “decisive action” to strengthen its liquidity by borrowing up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank after a slump in its shares intensified fears about a broader bank deposit crisis.

The Swiss bank’s problems have shifted the focus for investors and regulators from the United States to Europe, where Credit Suisse led a selloff in bank shares after its largest investor said it could not provide more financial assistance because of regulatory constraints.

Regulators in the private banking hub on Wednesday had sought to ease investor fears around Credit Suisse, which added to broader worries sparked by last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, two U.S. mid-size firms.

Asian stocks had extended Wall Street’s tumble on Thursday and investors bought gold, bonds and the dollar, leaving markets on edge ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later in the day. The bank’s announcement in the early European morning helped trim some of those losses though trade was volatile. (read more)

Again, I go back to the geopolitical map.  The yellow nations with sanctions against Russia are also the yellow nations driving the ‘Build Back Better’ climate change energy policy.  The grey nations are not in alignment with either dynamic.  It is not a coincidence the banking issues are all within the yellow nations.

(Via Daily Mail) Wall Street’s main stock indexes opened lower on Wednesday, as turmoil at Credit Suisse renewed fears of a banking crisis and sent shares of major US banks lower.

At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 396 points, or 1.23 percent, while the S&P 500 opened 1.09 percent lower and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.20 percent.

Shares of First Republic, one of the regional banks swept up in contagion fears after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, dropped up to 11 percent after the bank’s bond rating was downgraded to junk status by S&P.

In Europe, shares of Credit Suisse plunged more than 25 percent, hitting a new record low for the second day in a row, after the Swiss bank’s largest investor said it could not provide more financial assistance to the lender.

The Big Four trillion-dollar US banks suffered in early trading after yesterday’s rally. Wells Fargo slid 3.9 percent, Citigroup dropped 4.3 percent, Bank of America was down 2.2 percent and JP Morgan saw a 3.5 percent dip.

After the collapse of SVB Financial and Signature Bank, emergency measures by US authorities had soothed some worries about the health of the other banks, helping regional lenders stage a rebound in Tuesday’s session.

However, regional banks were giving back their gains in early trading Wednesday, with shares of First Republic, PacWest and Western Alliance all down between 2.7 percent and 11 percent.

[…] Driving investor sentiment was turmoil at Credit Suisse, after its biggest shareholder – the Saudi National Bank – said that it would not inject more money into the ailing Swiss bank.

Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar Al Khudairy told Reuters: ‘We cannot [buy more shares] because we would go above 10 percent. It’s a regulatory issue.’

The Saudi bank holds a 9.88 percent stake in Credit Suisse, according to Refinitiv data. (read more)

Yellow Team -vs- Gray Team:  Remember, China just brokered a deal to lessen hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The fulcrum of that agreement was economics.

Meanwhile in North America, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador has said he was not willing to join the energy suicide pact pushed by Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau…. A policy break in the trilateral relationship which suddenly, and not coincidentally, aligns with the timing to make Mexico a pariah to the U.S. vis-a-vis a renewed media push on the drug cartel narrative.

BIG PICTURE NOT BEING DISCUSSED – The western politicians followed the climate change instructions of the WEF multinational corporations and banks (Build Back Better) and post-pandemic immediately started reducing energy development.  The central bankers then began raising interest rates to shrink the economies of the same western nations to the scale of the now diminished energy production.

The raising of interest rates is now hitting the national and multinational banks impacted by government policy that was following WEF orders.  Now the western politicians are stepping in with the government controlled central banks to backstop the national banks and multinationals.  Can you see the dynamic?

Team yellow is suffering the consequences of their own ideological policy as enacted.  Team grey is not going to help team yellow get out of a crisis team yellow created, which was intended to hurt team grey.

…. And we continue watching.

Mar 16 2023

Joe Biden Brags About Lessening Massive Inflation He Creates


Posted originally on the CTH on March 15, 2023 | Sundance 

This is so far beyond hubris, the gaslight from where hubris emanates would take a year to reach it.

Joe Biden spikes the football on the Twitter claiming to have lessened inflation he created. [LINK]

I try not to hold negative sentiments, but I cannot help but loathe this man.

Mar 14 2023

Toxic Currencies – Good for the Yuan


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Chinese yuan has out-traded the US dollar by volume for one of the first times in recent Russian history. The dollar was king in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, but that is no longer the case after Moscow branded the dollar a “toxic currency” along with the euro. Toxic currencies accounted for 87% of exports from Russia at the beginning of 2022, but this figure fell to 48% by the start of the new year. The Bank of Russia has reported that the proportion of USD/ruble pair in exchange fell to only 36% in February. The central bank is calling this a “broad structural transformation of the Russian economy.”

As “unfriendly countries” and their “toxic currencies” band together, those on the outskirts are winning. China has become the new go-to country for new trade partnerships as it bypasses Western-imposed sanctions. Toxic currencies represented 46% of imports in December 2022 but were at 65% in January 2022 before the war. In contrast, the yuan’s share rose from 4% to 23% during that time.

Those who were previously shunned from the big table are now pulling up a chair to discuss economic prospects with China. This will make it much easier to phase out toxic currencies because more people are willing to accept the yuan. The confidence in the yuan is growing. Everything occurring may seem odd, but it is precisely on target. As I mentioned in my report “China on the Rise,” China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse by 2032. It’s just time.