U.K Energy Reaches Crisis Point, Britain Announces New Oil and Gas Leases and Lifts Moratorium on Fracking


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 

There is a particular historical irony in the timing.  On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.

Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.

The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel.  The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.

Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.

The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades.  The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion.  The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe.  It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Britain’s move to green-light dozens of new oil and gas fields will leave investors and banks with a tough PR job as Britain struggles to shore up its energy security whilst sticking to its climate commitments.

Starting new oil and gas projects runs counter to the world’s shift away from fossil fuels in the fight against global warming and a commitment at last November’s U.N. climate talks to phase down their use.

Yet runaway inflation amid conflict in Ukraine has forced the hand of new British prime minister Liz Truss as Russian President Putin seeks to use energy as a weapon this winter.

Britain will launch a new round of oil and gas licensing next week with more than 100 licenses issued, part of a wider package of measures to tackle the energy crisis announced by Truss on Thursday.

And Britain’s not alone in reassessing its energy strategy. Germany, for example, has been forced to turn back to even dirtier thermal coal to help fuel its power plants and keep the lights on, hampering short-term efforts to rein in climate-damaging carbon emissions.

But for energy companies and the investors, bankers and insurers that finance them, new investment in fossil fuels also presents a challenge given many have made their own pledges to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

“This will absolutely hinder companies’ … ability to hit their climate targets,” said Pietro Bertazzi, global director of policy engagement and external affairs at non-profit environmental disclosure platform CDP. (read more)

This is the first crack in the western alliance and the ‘climate change’ agenda of the World Economic Forum as it relates to energy policy and ultimately control over human life within the alliance.

The war in Ukraine was being used as a justification to explain the consequences of European energy policy, particularly rapidly increasing costs for energy and food, but the war in Ukraine was not the cause.  The true root cause of the exploding inflation and economic mess was the Build Back Better agenda, and the series of policies dictated from within it, that each nation willingly accepted.

Fearing a Complete Shutdown from Russia, Europe Scraps Plans to Cap Russian Gas Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance 

War is an outcome of ideology and economics, and the latter is perhaps the most powerful weapon.  As the harsh reality of Europe’s insufferable decades-long efforts to embrace the virtues of climate change begin to settle in, the reasonable adults in the conversation are able to see how their weakness is being exploited by their adversary.

On Sept 7, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.” {Go Deep}

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that any further efforts to weaken his economy, via western sanctions and interventionist efforts against his economy, would be met with retaliation in the form of cutting off all oil and gas supplies to Europe.  It appears the Europeans now understand the nature of their vulnerability.

(Via Reuters) – The EU has dropped plans to cap the price it pays for Russian gas.

Energy ministers from the bloc met Friday (September 9) in Brussels. They scrapped plans for the cap after the idea failed to win broad support.

Member states in central and eastern Europe who still get gas from Russia feared retaliation by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin had said he would cut off supplies altogether if a cap was imposed.

However, ministers did agree to claw back revenues from some power producers and will use the money to curb consumer bills. European energy prices are typically set by gas plants. That leaves generators using nuclear, wind or coal raking in revenue, as their running costs haven’t risen as much or at all.

On Friday, some EU nations also argued in favor of a general cap on all gas imports. However, European energy commissioner Kadri Simson said any such move would be risky:

“The general price cap, including LNG imports, could present a security of supply challenge, because the LNG market is a global market. We are not among the three biggest LNG-importing regions or countries, and there is very strong competition in the LNG market and right now it is very important that we can replace the decreasing Russian volumes with alternative suppliers.”

The EU windfall plan will now be fleshed out in the coming days, with another meeting of energy ministers seen possible later in the month. (read more)

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen previously announced five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said.  The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.

Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives included:

(1) Conservation of electricity through forced and mandated cuts in electricity use.  The amount of the cut has yet to be determined but reducing demand through forced curtailment of electricity use is the first approach.  [Insert California as an example here in the United States.]

(2) A cap on the profit generated by energy suppliers who use renewable energy like wind and solar.  The renewable industry has lower costs, yet they are profiting from the top line increase in delivered electricity.  The EU commissar is proposing to confiscate the profits of Green Energy suppliers, direct the funds to the member states and then use those funds to subsidize the energy costs of poorer EU citizens.

(3) A cap on the profits generated by traditional fossil fuel energy suppliers (oil, coal, nuclear, gas electricity generation), and the diversion of those profits following the same formula as above.

(4) Banking support and financial liquidity for smaller regional energy providers who are having short term financial issues as they must pay massive amounts of money for the raw material needed to generate electricity.  Essentially, the cost of coal, oil and LNG has skyrocketed, and there is a lag between the time they energy company must pay for the fuel source and the time the customer pays the electricity bill.   The inbound fuel costs (new) are so extreme the inbound payments for prior electricity (old) are not covering the cost of the new supplier purchase.

(5) A price cap on Russian natural gas.  To accompany the increased import of Norwegian and U.S. gas.  This sounds like a bizarro effort to manipulate the market which could backfire.  If Russian gas is cheaper than EU market gas, the smart energy providers will purchase the Russian gas.

Number five is now scrapped.

Not a single word about increasing the supply of any traditional energy resource.  These EU ideologues -bureaucrats within a system that is not representative of democracy- are so committed to the cult of climate change and renewable energy, they are willing to destroy the EU economy in order to lower demand to the level of their windmills and solar farms.  However, it looks like alternate, perhaps even sensible people within the EU, are starting to realize the ‘climate change’ ideologues are the real and present danger.

Why Liberals Hate The Queen (Ep. 1848) – The Dan Bongino Show


The Dan Bongino Show Published originally on Rumble on September 9, 2022

Dan always has a good story

Things Might be WORSE than You Think!


Awaken With JP Published originally on Rumble on September 8, 2022 10,189

It might be worse than you think…

When a Clown Moves into a Palace


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

-Record-high inflation

-Proxy war with Russia

-Open borders

-Loss of energy independence

-Looming recession

-Reckless spending

-Woke agenda

-Increase in violent crimes

-Polarized nation

-Compromised elections

-America now seen as vulnerable to enemies

The list goes on and on…

Tucker Carlson Outlines Reasons Latino Community Aligns with Trump and MAGA Movement


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance 

This is good to see and a little funny at the same time.  Since 2015 CTH has been outlining how the MAGA working-class movement is in direct alignment with the values and priorities of Latinos and Hispanics.

More Latinos support President Trump than supported any republican modern in history.  In the bigger picture, Latino voters support President Trump for the same reasons the Amish voters support President Trump, the absence of political correctness. WATCH:

.

Professor Alan Dershowitz Recommends a Retired Federal Judge Should Hold Special Master Appointment in Mar-a-Lago Raid Document Review


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 9, 2022

September 9, 2022 | Sundance | 1 Comment

The deadline for both the Trump Team and DOJ-NSD Team to submit their recommendations for a special master to review the Mar-a-Lago documents is tonight at midnight.

During an interview presented by Newsmax, Harvard Professor Emeritus and legal scholar Alan Dershowitz gives his impression on the appointment itself as well as the background issues surrounding the documents at the heart of the conflict.

Mr. Dershowitz recommends that a former federal judge would be the best candidate for the role of special master and supports the opinion with his viewpoint. WATCH:

.

U.S. Household Net Worth Drops $6.1 Trillion in Second Quarter, Despite Home Values Increasing $1.5 Trillion


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 9, 2022 | Sundance

The U.S. Federal Reserve has published the second quarter 2022 balance sheet of U.S. total household wealth [DATA HERE].

In the second quarter (April, May, June) 2022, the total U.S. household wealth dropped $6.1 trillion, despite a calculated increase in home value of $1.5 trillion.  The majority of the loss is connected to a drop in Corporate Equity (stock market) and household investment in the stock market.

FED “The net worth of households and nonprofit organizations declined $6.1 trillion to $143.8 trillion in the second quarter. The value of stocks on the household balance sheet declined by $7.7 trillion, while the value of real estate increased by $1.5 trillion.”  Keep in mind this is backward looking data, and after a period of decelerating rates of growth, the overall real estate market is now in a period of decline as calculated for the most recent month of July [DATA].

The equity position of homeowners is now considerably less than the equity position when the feds calculated the second quarter household wealth (two months ago).  Part of the issue goes back to what we have been discussing with inflation and specifically energy driven increases in fuel and electricity.

Inflation sucks money out of the economy, making people less wealthy.  Energy inflation sucks money exponentially faster out of each household, potentially making the already working-class poor, much poorer.

The higher prices paid for housing, food, fuel and energy do not contribute to anything, the increased costs are just sucked out of the consumers’ pockets without generating any additional value.  It just costs more to live, and that reduces wealth.  Consider this the cost of going green.

Joe Biden and his economic team are introducing phrases like “a growth recession,” to explain a dynamic where earned wages are replaced by government subsidy.  You can no longer afford food, energy, housing etc, so the government steps in as the provider of subsidy based on income level to supplement the gap between wages and the new costs of products and services within the Biden created “green” economy.

However, in the bigger of big pictures, the government does not create wealth.  Wealth is created outside government by private activity.  Government income via taxation is lowered when the economic activity of the private sector drops.

There is currently a massive lag in recording dropped economic activity that is going to surface very soon.  The rate of energy price increase has been so large, so fast, the ability of producers to transfer the cost creates an economic lag.

Total product costs (except imports) are rising faster than finished good prices to consumers.  At the same time, consumer demand for goods has dropped dramatically due to the speed and rate of increased energy costs.  As a combined result, the equity market will likely continue to decline as each earnings report comes in lower than prior expectation.

Now, looking at wealth over time, what happens to the economic model of Biden when current housing value ($41.2 trillion) simply drops back to 2020 levels ($33.0 trillion a conservative real estate market correction)?

Continued higher prices to consumers, less money to government, less economic activity and lower household equity.   That’s trouble, big trouble.

Wave #3 of food inflation starts hitting hard next month as the increased costs at the field start to transfer through the supply chain from harvest to the fork.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The sour mood appears to stem from record food, energy and housing prices. Positive views of the grocery industry dropped 14 percentage points from last year, the biggest drop in the survey. The real estate industry dipped 9 points, the second-largest decline.

Just 22 percent of respondents reported having a positive view of the oil and gas industry, down from 28 percent last year. Twenty-nine percent reported having a positive view of electric and gas utilities, down from 36 percent last year. 

Grocery prices rose a stunning 13.1 percent over the last 12 months ending in July, the largest annual increase in more than four decades, according to Labor Department data. 

Housing affordability has fallen to its lowest level since the Great Recession, according to the National Association of Home Builders, with rents and home prices at record levels.

Gas prices reached an all-time high in June before falling slightly in recent months, while energy bills are also soaring amid huge demand for natural gas. (read more)

Meanwhile Biden’s economic team is bragging that Main Street is in better shape?

“The President’s first two years in office have been two of the most productive in American history, and as the Blueprint explains, these accomplishments are all part of one economic vision.”  (more)

Steve Bannon, FBI Raided Homes of 35 Bannon Affiliated MAGA Allies Yesterday


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 9, 2022 | Sundance

During a podcast interview between Charlie Kirk (Turning Point USA / Club4Growth) and Warroom host Steve Bannon, Mr. Bannon stated the FBI raided 35 homes, offices and residences yesterday in seemingly coordinated activity timed with his arrest in Manhattan. {Direct Rumble Link}

Bannon was arrested under dubious fraud charges in Manhattan Thursday, connected to claims he duped donors who gave money to a We Build The Wall nonprofit organization established by Bannon and his partners. The case seems to hinge on statements made by the founders of the organization that “every penny” of the $15 to $25 million raised would be spent on the wall. However, according to New York prosecutors, several hundred thousand was used by Bannon and team to pay their own salaries and expenses.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg gave Steve Bannon the handcuffed perp walk treatment, parading him through the courthouse like a captured political trophy. Mr. Bannon pled not guilty and was released after his arraignment for money laundering, conspiracy, fraud and other charges related to the “We Build the Wall” campaign.

The statement of 35 simultaneous FBI raids is the first mention of something coordinated like this. Perhaps further details will soon surface.

The Time of Separation of the USA is Rapidly Approaching


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Sep 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, is Steve Bannon another pre-election ploy to put a spike in the heart of Republicans for the elections?

ZB

ANSWER: Of course. Claiming that you raised money and then did not disclose you were paying salaries is really stretching it. You can put every charity in prison for the very same thing. How much really goes to the administration and not the people they claim?

The fraud claim is very ambiguous. I advised on so many takeovers and major corps they were sure they could have gotten me on insider trading. HSBC even came to me to ask me about buying Republic National Bank in April 1999. I told them to count their fingers and make sure they still had their arm.

Advising around the world meant I had to comply with everyone’s laws. My lawyers on every continent concluded I just could not have any personal accounts for trading. I had to give that up and that is why I was the highest paid in the world and could walk into all the central banks and government wealth funds BECAUSE they all knew there were no conflicts of interest.

It was so bad that if I had owned one share of Republic Bank and I advised HSBC on the takeover, I would have to disclose my entire portfolio, not just the one share of Republic, and then disclose by my advice to buy meant I could profit $10 or whatever the bid would be. It was totally insane. Our politicians should have to comply with the same laws they imposed on me.

It became a choice between being an investor and an advisor. I could not be both.

After my case began, the lead prosecutor Richard Owens just said, you are one smart SOB. They could not find anything. Instead of running a clean shop, I was just so smart they could not prove anything yet surely I had to have something hidden. For the bank, suddenly he told the truth that the notes were in yen. For me, he kept claiming they were in dollars to impose a higher penalty. He would use different theories all the time it would change and it got to the point I didn’t even know what the case was about.

That is the thinking process of any prosecutor. NEVER let your child ever marry one. They are trained to lie, deceive, and are genuinely dishonest in order to do the job.

I submitted a motion to compel him to explain even what my case was about it had become so confusing. They tried to claim I was pro see and I did not know the law to defend myself. I moved for dismissal because if I did not know the law to defend myself, then I could not knowingly violate any law. Judge McKenna smiled and ordered them to respond. He then went to the Chief Judge, had my case taken away from that Judge, and reassigned to Judge Kennan who immediately denied that motion. They sealed the docket so I cannot see how they did that, which violated my Due Process Rights. In his mind, the Constitution seemed to become just a “guideline” – not binding to these people.

He even had to admit to my face, well we know you didn’t take any money but still refused to drop the charges. I looked at them as idiots. How could you get $1 billion out of a bank and nobody knew where it was? There had to be a wire, a check some evidence of a withdrawal. They finally figured out that the bank lied. How idiotic to even start a case on such an absurd theory of the bank claiming they had no idea where the money was when they stole it, to begin with. The only reason the bank had to plead guilty, and not one banker went to jail, was because my clients listened to me and filed suits against the bank which they could not cover up.

That is the real world of law – it is as corrupt as you expect in China, Nicaragua, or Venezuela. As Thrasymachus warned Socrates even in a Democracy, justice will be only what the government says it is. This is what we are seeing with Trump and Bannon right now. They are desperate to criminally indict Trump BEFORE the midterms and they will then plaster all the headlines that these people Trump has endorsed are all criminals like him. He will be tried and convicted in the mainstream press all without any trial before the midterms. That is their goal and they will destroy the country in the process. Instead of He’s Not My President, we will see This is Not My Country.

Once the Rule of Law collapses, the end is not too far down the road. They are destroying our country right before our eyes. As I have said, the computer warns that we may not even see a presidential election in 2024. Next year will be the year from Political Hell. This quest to win at all costs here in 2022 will divide the country deeply and this WOKE agenda is destructive dividing everyone so there is no more We the People.

Our computer has NEVER been wrong. This was the computer forecast from 2018. It has been showing 2023 as the start and 2026 would be the Panic Cycle. I am not looking forward to 2023 in the least. The Democrats are desperate and they will NOT tolerate a Republican victory that might overturn their agenda that has been choreographed by the World Economic Forum.

This is the Array you can find on our old site with the Wayback Machine. In 1998 it projected a Panic Cycle in 2008, which was right on target. There are plenty of people who hate my guts. I really do not give a shit. This is NOT my personal opinion. They hate me because it projects something they usually want the opposite to happen like in gold. The markets are here to TEACH us how to read them and see what lies ahead. The past whispers to us quietly. We have to pay attention if you want to hear the message.

Scream all you want. Hate me all you want. What will be will be. I cannot stop that and silencing me will not change the future. I was in prison when the model peaked in 2007.15, which was the precise day of the peak in the Schiller Real Estate Index and then the Panic of 2008. That proved it was not me and personal influence.

Julius Caesar said long ago, that men are willing to believe what they wish. I know it is IMPOSSIBLE to argue with a fool or someone indoctrinated into whatever the belief. You can only help those with an open mind and willingness to look at the facts from an UNBIASED perspective.

Obama won the general election with 52.9% of the popular vote. I have said many times, that the only presidents ever elected with more than 60% were FDR, Johnson after the Kennedy Assassination, and Richard Nixon. Everyone else wins with typically less than 55%. This is NOT a Democracy. We live in a Republic. ALL republics collapse from within. There will be no enemy that defeats America, we are doing that quite well without the help of Putin or Xi. You cannot do what Biden is doing using a couple of percents to impose a dictatorship.

We are approaching that fateful day when it will be time to just turn out the lights on the American Dream than has turned into an American Nightmare. The attitudes in California, Oregon, and Washington State, are so foreign to those in the South, that they might as well be their own separate country. The time of separation is approaching, for that is the only way freedom to pursue your own happiness and live your life the way you want to instead of how someone else tells you you must comply with their ideas. Freedom will never be possible again. It pains me to be around on this planet when it is time to write the eulogy on the American Dream.