Posted originally on the conservative house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance
Senator Rand Paul has blocked a fast-track senate vote on the additional $40 billion funding package created by Joe Biden and House Democrats. Both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell approved a fast-track vote; however, senator Rand Paul (KY) stood defiant against their effort.
Despite the high-profile pressure from the two Senate leaders, Rand Paul refused to move and that means the Senate will have to take procedural steps to overcome his objection, which could take several days. “My oath of office is the US constitution not to any foreign nation and no matter how sympathetic the cause, my oath of office is to the national security of the United States of America,” Paul said in his remarks before objecting to moving to swift passage of the bill. “We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the US economy.” WATCH:
The $40 billion supplemental spending bill for Ukraine is more than the total military budget of Russia. The combined Ukraine aid packages now exceed $60 billion, more than the entire budget for the U.S. Dept of Homeland Security including border protection.
Rand Paul is on the right side of history with his position, and the overwhelming majority of Americans agree with him. However, the opinion of the people is irrelevant to the Senate. Even democrat Senator Chuck Schumer seemed to admit this point when he said Rand Paul’s position “was not the opinion of the overwhelming majority here,” meaning in the senate. Schumer would have used other terms if he thought the American people agreed with him. They don’t, and he knows it.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance
The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released April price data [Available Here] showing another 11.0% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.
Last month when looking at internal economic activity that showed a contraction in consumer purchases of goods, we said pay attention to the service side of the ledger now. Knowing people have stopped buying ‘stuff’, if people are starting to run out of money, they will cut back in the service sector (dining out, etc).
While the PPI focuses on prices, the PPI data for April shows exactly that service side contraction now taking place. Wholesale inflation in goods is determined heavily by higher costs for raw materials and processing. However, the rate of inflation within the service sector is more connected to what consumers can afford. Modified Table-A, look at the April difference between goods (1.3%) and services (0.0%):
[Ex. The lawn company might pay 50% more for oil and gasoline (goods side), but they may not be able to increase the rate they charge you by 50% to mow the grass (service side).]
The major current production inflation in both goods and services is directly connected to the cost of energy. Energy prices are embedded in every sector of the economy. For “goods” higher electricity, heating/cooling and petroleum costs (packaging, materials, transportation, etc) are unavoidable and passed on to consumers. For “services,” individuals and companies raise their prices to compensate for increases in their own costs. It is a cumulative inflation snowball.
In April the Total PPI of 0.5% was influenced by downward price pressure from the service side. The price of final demand (wholesale) goods increased 1.3%. The price of final demand (wholesale) services was 0.0%. [Note: Wholesale trade services dropped by 0.5%]
Normally I would clean up TABLE-A “intermediate demand goods both processed and unprocessed.” However, in this month the entire field of data tells a very compelling story.
Note that Intermediate Demand Processed foodstuff prices grew at 2.9% in April. Annualized that is a 34.8% increase in price. This is the scale of future price increases we are likely to see at the supermarket. That 35% rate of inflation for center store products is exactly what CTH predicted for the third wave of price increases.
The Intermediate Demand Unprocessed foodstuffs, increased in price by 2.5% in April, those foodstuffs are entering the wholesale market at a 30.0% annualized rate of inflation vs last year.
As an analogy, think of the difference between processed foodstuffs (center store and dairy) and unprocessed foodstuffs (fresh produce, meats) as you would normally think about them in the supermarket. As you can see the processed product rate of inflation (34.8%) is higher than the non-processed (30.0%). The difference is the additional costs associated with processing as a major result of energy prices.
What the producer price index at the wholesale level is telling us, is that inflation on consumable goods is still not yet at the apex. For durable goods the prices are less volatile, but price pressures are still in the upward direction. The price of gasoline and transportation overall will be a big factor in current prices of highly consumable goods. We cannot and will not start to climb out of the inflation spiral on goods until we see oil, gas and energy prices stabilize first.
On the service side, inflation is going to be determined by how long businesses and operators can continue operations without raising prices. How long can a restaurant pay 30-to-35% more for their supplies, before those price increases need to show up on the menu?
Joe Biden sucks.
(WASHINGTON) – […] The producer price data captures inflation at an earlier stage of production and can sometimes signal where consumer prices are headed. It also feeds into the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Thursday’s figures came just a day after the government released consumer price data for April, which showed that inflation leapt 8.3% last month from a year ago. That increase is down slightly from the four-decade high in March of 8.5%. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.3% in April from March, the smallest increase in eight months.
Still, there were plenty of signs in the consumer price report that inflation will remain stubbornly high, likely for the rest of this year and into 2023. Rents rose faster as many apartment buildings have lifted monthly payments for new tenants. Prices for airline tickets jumped by the most on records dating to 1963. And food prices continued to rise sharply.
The Federal Reserve has stepped up its fight against rampant price increases, lifting its benchmark short-term interest rate by a half-point last week to a range of 0.75% and 1%. That increase is double its usual quarter-point hike. (read more)
Airlines are playing Russian roulette with passengers’ lives after numerous pilots experienced heart attacks, which is believed to be a direct result of the vaccine mandate.
American Airlines Captain Robert Snow was flying an Airbus 231 carrying 200 passengers. An otherwise healthy Snow experienced a sudden heart attack six minutes after landing. Snow said he dreamed of teaching his daughter to fly one day but will likely never fly again.
TheUS Freedom Flyers are a group of volunteers within the transportation sector fighting to end vaccine mandates. They are warning the government that a tragedy could be on the horizon due to the FAA initially mandating vaccines under Biden’s guidance. The group would like all vaccinated pilots to receive medical clearance through EKGs and MRIs to rule out blood clotting issues. Once a pilot loses their FAA medical clearance, their career is over.
United Airlines even issued a“pilot incapacitation” manual and urged pilots and co-pilots to report incidents. As it stands, pilots are not permitted to fly for 48 hours after receiving the vaccine. However, the side effects could occur much later, and no one is seriously investigating why pilots are falling ill. “It’s as simple as standing up and saying NO! When we join together, we are an unstoppable force,” the US Freedom Flyers said.
I work on defense issues for my job, but I am no Neocon. Second Strike works just fine too or more likely “Launch Under Attack” (LUA), and even with older weapons. Everybody goes down together and most likely via miscalculation especially given possible Nuclear Winter which given Volcano data actually looks plausible. No prior intention is required to commit National suicide. Read Admiral Richards (STRATCOM) latest Congressional testimony yesterday. A “Crisis In Nuclear Deterrence” and it could be the Brits who initiate any escalation and not the U.S.by the way. Same Trident-D-5 SLBM’s and Russia could not tell them apart.
There are some Neocons who are aware of your work like Bill Kristol, and others. They will never allow the shift from West to East to occur. I have actually heard some of them say that. It is their hold card. By the way, could you clarify when you believe the full-scale war will break out? You have suggested Q-1 2023, 2024 (especially May 7/8 ECM turn), after 2024, 2027, and 2028. I understand it may escalate in stages, but how long does Socrates believe we have before it goes full scale? My guess is June 2024 as Economic factors are ignored by “The Post Cold Warriors”.
Best, Ken.
COMMENT: Marty, you are right again. Admiral Richard agreed with you that nuclear arms are no longer a deterrent to war. The Ukraine conflict shows Russia was not afraid of nuclear weapons from NATO or the US. It is all economics.
Thanks for what you do.
KM
ANSWER: I know virtually every intelligence agency looks at Socrates. They all want to know the forecasts of Socrates, for it’s not my personal opinion. All I can hope to do is scream loud enough that perhaps I can reduce the amplitude of events. But Socrates has NEVER been wrong on any geopolitical forecast in my lifetime. Personally, we all have opinions. But that will also change week to week based on events. That’s why personal opinion will not cut it, for this is far more complex than we can even speculate.
I really do not care what the Neocons do. They will never prevent the shift of the economic power from the West to the East. China has surpassed Europe, and it is neck and neck with the USA now. This is a cycle that cannot be defeated. All they are doing is fulfilling the cycle with this nonsense. World peace is created by interdependency, as was the case with the Roman Empire and the Pax Romanum, Roman peace.
I am doing a full report on the question. Tensions are rising post-2020 after they got Biden in office. We will see escalation begin in 2023, but the prospect of a world war is more likely post-2024. I question if Putin will be there during that time more than Biden. Putin will be followed by even hardline advocates, for they are well aware that this Proxy War is really a war between the USA and Russia.
Yes, the head of U.S. Strategic Command Adm. Charles Richard, who does oversee the nuclear arsenal, warned Congress that the USA faces a heightened nuclear deterrence risk when it comes to Russia and China. The cutting of the defense budget and even Biden’s threat to dishonorably discharge any member of the military who was not vaccinated has shown that the US thinks it can control the world with the threat of nuclear weapons while reducing the conventional capability.
Adm. Richard warned: “We are facing a crisis deterrence dynamic right now that we have only seen a few times in our nation’s history.” He continued stating bluntly: “The war in Ukraine and China’s nuclear trajectory — their strategic breakout — demonstrates that we have a deterrence and assurance gap based on the threat of limited nuclear employment.” He further warned that China is “watching the war in Ukraine closely and will likely use nuclear coercion to their advantage in the future. Their intent is to achieve the military capability to reunify Taiwan by 2027 if not sooner.”
Nuclear weapons are no longer a deterrent. They did not stop the US from going into Iraq, the Vietnamese War, or this one in Ukraine. The idea that building nuclear capability will somehow compel world peace is a delusion. This is essentially what Admiral Richard has scolded Congress about. The US conventionally is not a match for Russia and China. North Korea alone has an army of 1.5 million. That is double the size of both sides in Ukraine right now.
A lot of people have written in to ask if I have been consulted for the Star Trek series or if some have used our forecast to write scripts. I have not consulted on Star Trek. If people are tapping into our computer forecasts for ideas, I cannot confirm nor deny that. I understand that connection to our model and I can say an awful lot of people do tune in to Socrates. Let’s hope their visual forecast of the future is not so dramatic. If it makes people think twice – it is fantastic. My fear is that those pulling the strings connected to the mouths of world leaders just for once stop with this nonsense of a Great Reset and let’s sit down and revise the world economy in a rational manner.
This is a MUST-watch Documentary from a German journalist who has been on the ground. It is important to see the other side of events for anyone who only listens to one side, is denied the very idea of free thought.
A number of people asked to see an ECM on Zelensky himself. This lines up perfectly with the final wave for Ukraine as well between 2021 into 2025 where it is highly likely we will see war escalated post-2024. Zelensky got his staring role to pretend to be a comedian who became president in line with the ECM turning point 2016.75 which marked the peak in confidence in government globally. 2016 saw both Brexit and Trump win which were direct blows to the establishment.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Been following Martin since 2008 (Gold ride) – he is the only one who has been right AU and AG top 2011. ****Important question for Martin, please How can the fed raise rates with governments owing so much debt please ???? what are the consequences of debt restructured? 100 year treasury real estate Thanks you so much for sharing all your insights
JT
ANSWER: The Federal Reserve is independent. Despite all the nonsense that these pretend analysts attribute everything to the actions of the Fed, if they really knew their history, they would realize that the Fed has often been at war with the White House. You cannot be an objective analyst when you predetermine a conclusion based upon a theory you choose to believe. This is the sad state of analysis these days. People start with the conclusion and then cherry-pick the facts to support what they think should be the outcome. This is what has plagued gold analysis, but the very same process has doomed climate change analysis and the destruction of the world economy.
Unfortunately, when it comes to the Quantity Theory of Money, these analysts take the position of politicians and exonerate themselves of all responsibility for their reckless fiscal spending. They endlessly try to bribe the people to vote for them. I have stated many times, pre-1971, when it was illegal to borrow against an E-Bond, for example, the theory was printing money increased the supply and was inflationary. Thus, borrowing did not increase the money supply and was not inflationary. But when you can post T-Bills as collateral and trade the markets, that theory is no longer valid, so debt is now simply money that pays interest the way it began in 1861. We seem to always return to the starting place, like the game of Monopoly where you must pass Go every trip around the board.
Socialism is the worst form of government; just look at the Democrats. They do not know how to run for office without promising free something or other. It is never about the fate of the world, the nation, or our families. They are promoting war because they assume that the people will not change the government in the middle of a war. They have no problem watching our people die.
The Fed has ZERO control over fiscal spending. Nevertheless, the Fed has been itself brainwashed, and because everyone blames them for inflation, they will be compelled to raise rates or suffer the calls for their overthrow. The increased cost in the deficit will never be blamed on them — only the inflation rate. This is why the central banks have ZERO control over the economy anymore. Soon, people will wake up and realize that this statement is true. When they do, we will get a 1987-style panic.
Here is a chart of the dollar index. The dollar had already begun its decline when they stood up at the Plaza Accord, announcing they wanted the dollar down by 40%. As the dollar began to fall rapidly, other member nations complained. In February 1987, they gathered together to announce that the dollar had fallen too far and enough was enough. When the dollar continued lower, the then G7 lost all credibility, and the markets suddenly realized they were not in control.
This is what we will see once again. This type of inflation was caused by the COVID lockdowns. China may really have shut down Shanghai to push inflation even higher in the West, seeking regime change in Washington, hoping the inflation will lead to a political blood-bath for the Democrats to get the world back to some normalcy. When inflation is set in motion because of a shortage, like crop failures, raising interest rates will not suddenly make it rain.
The Fed will act out its role because it has no other choice. Its rate hike this week is only playing catch-up with the market. Rates are rising because they are supposed to reflect the inflation rates plus a profit. That’s without the Fed trying to manage the economy. Just look at the rates and ignore the pundits. You will see that the Fed is chasing the market, it is not driving the market. Hence, the Fed is being compelled to raise rates not by its own desire to prevent inflation, but to keep pace with the markets themselves.
The idiots will blame the Fed as inflation rises and blame them for not acting. There is no saving grace for the Fed. The system is collapsing and this is in fact what gives Klaus Schwab power, for they know in Europe that they can no longer borrow money to fund socialism. The answer is to default on all debt and to hide that, they need to make it sound like they are doing this for you — who they care so much about.
Hence, this default will be disguised as relieving you of all your debt when it is the governments who are defaulting, and unable to raise interest rates in Europe. This is also the backdrop to the Repo Crisis and why US banks withdrew from making markets because they did not want to take European debt as collateral, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in.
Pelosi’s delegation went to Ukraine and said the US does not want peace and it will not accept the status quo. They want total victory against Russia and they have UNCONSTITUTIONALLY declared war on Russia and they are pretending they can act unilaterally and as long as the Ukrainian people are on the ground and not American troops, then it is not formally a war that only the people can declare under the constitution. This is all a cover for the Great Default because Keynesian Economics has completely failed. The central banks CAN NOT stop this inflation nor do they control the fiscal spending. Governments are now spending whatever they want because they know the Great Default is coming. This is all part of the Great Reset pushed as the solution by the World Economic Forum.
As we move head-first into 2032, we are looking at the total collapse of not just socialism because of the inability of European governments to continue to borrow as the Fed raises rates, and they cannot, but we are also staring into the eyes of the collapse of Republican forms of government on a global scale.
Trade tension between China and Australia has hit a new peak, with Australia now seeking to limit trade with China entirely. Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that India will replace China in trade. “For economic reasons, we’re gonna [sic] have to replace China in supply chains and frankly, there is no better substitute for China and so many of their supply chains than India, given India’s very sophisticated manufacturing base,” Abbott stated.
Abbott accused China of “weaponizing trade” and “bribing or bullying other countries around the region.” Australia is now aiming for a $100 billion bilateral trade deal with India. India and Australia entered a free trade agreement in April entitled the “Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement” (ECTA) after over a decade of negotiations. The deal will increase trade between the nations from $27.5 billion in 2021 to $45 billion over the next five years. The agreement also seeks to increase duty-free imports on Indian products and eliminate over 85% of tariffs on Australian goods to India.
China blocked Australian imports during COVID after politicians requested an independent review of the Wuhan virus leak. China later allowed Australian goods to enter the country but increased tariffs significantly. The two nations withdrew from major projects shortly after, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
China recently shut down its largest port and has been contributing to the supply chain crisis. They have had notoriously difficult trade negotiations with most of their largest trading partners. Although the models indicate China will eventually become the financial capital of the world, the road there will be a long one.
Politicians are using Ukraine as a photo opportunity. Would the most powerful government officials risk traveling there if Kyiv was under constant attack? Would they publicly stroll the streets in Russia’s alleged top target? Third in line to lead the US, 82-year-old Nancy Pelosi, insisted on putting a wall and armed guards around the US capitol, stating she feared for her life. She had no problem flying to what has been described as an active warzone to take pictures with Zelensky and personally deliver him billions of dollars for a war the media states he is winning. What she actually did was commit the United States to a direct war with Russia and the goal is their destruction not to defend Ukraine. They outright said before the world, that there are no peace negotiations, this is a defacto Declaration of War.
Boris Johnson also did not pass on the photo opportunity. The prime minister of the UK openly walked around Kyiv with the Ukrainian leader. Zelensky made sure to wear his military gear for the photos, although Johnson was in a suit. There were no bulletproof vests, and they did not meet in a secret location. In fact, numerous leaders of NATO nations have visited Ukraine since the war began. The presidents of Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Estonia all traveled by train to visit the war-torn country. Many others have visited as well and sent top delegates amid an ongoing war.
Everyone clearly knows where Zelensky is located – including the Russians. There were countless reports of Russian special forces attempting to assassinate Zelensky in the “early hours” of the war. Sources claim that was propaganda. Zelensky never went into hiding. He posts videos from his office in Kyiv and has made his location known. Yet, he claims that he and his family will be assassinated by Putin soon. He has successfully secured the public’s opinion as they see him as a brave leader who is willing to risk his life for his country. If Putin wanted to assassinate Zelensky, he would have done so already. Putin does not want a war with NATO and is moving carefully. However, the West wants war and desperately needs war as stage TWO of the Great Reset for the days of Keynesian Economics are coming to an end. The West has been borrowing relentless since World War II with no intention of paying anything back. The ECB lowered interest rates to NEGATIVE in 2014, and now the entire European pension system is bankrupt. They need this war to blame the collapse of government on Putin as well.
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