Tag Archives: BREXIT

Sep 6 2019

Currency Which Expires – That’s the Solution – Or Just Cancel it all?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Sep 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

Back during the Great Depression, there were people who theorized that gold hoarding was preventing economic recovery. There is always this same theory that people who save hoarding their money and are not spending it results in the lack of a recovery suppressing demand. This theory has been around for a very long time. It assumes a recovery is always blocked by people hoarding their money and saving for a rainy day.

Back during the American Civil War, the federal government issued paper currency for the first time after the Revolution. Much of this currency paid interest. Some were in the form of virtually circulating bonds with coupons for the interest payments. Some were backed by gold. Others offered a table on the reverse providing a schedule. The interest baring notes remained valid currency, but the interest expired within a specific time period. Hence, one would redeem the note since it would no longer pay interest beyond a specific date.

The rumbling behind the curtain I am hearing is a growing idea of making the currency in Europe simply expire. I have explained before that in Europe currency routinely expires – even in Britain. The United States has never canceled its currency so a note from the Civil War is still legal tender. But that is not the case in Europe.

Europeans are accustomed to having their money simply expire. This is not limited to paper currency. They also cancel the coins. The proposal being whispered in the dark halls of Europe is that perhaps the way to impose negative rates to force people to spend is to just cancel all the currency and authorize only small notes for pocket change. They want everyone to be forced to use bank cards and this is the new theory to revitalize the economy.

The chart patterns for the Euro are about as long-term bearish as one can imagine. The problem facing the world economy is this idea that they can even FORCE people to spend their savings recklessly as the government does. Canceling the euro may be a drastic and desperate step, but it is being proposed as an alternative to deep negative interest rates which have failed to work for more than 10 years. The middle ground proposes a paper currency with expiration dates.

Either way, the risk of a profound dollar rally remains in the wings. The powers behind the curtain desperately want to defeat Trump for they know he would NEVER cancel the American currency. To pull that off, they need a career politician. Joe Biden would be perfect. He might just sign whatever bill is put before him and then take a nap. It is ironic, but there would be a lot of Americans who would wake up and want Trump bank after that one. Joe would be too tired to tweet.

 

 

Sep 6 2019

The Club & Why the Majority Must be Always Wrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/Training Tools

Re-Posted Sep 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I did my own research on the 1998 Russian collapse. All the big names lost billions. Even the New York Times reported that George Soros lost $2 billion. You were the only one who made money so it made sense that you were named hedge fund manager of the year in 1998. My question is this. Since all the big names were involved in the Russia trade which took down Long-Term Capital Management, is this why you call them the “club” for they all do seem to be involved in the same trade?

DU

ANSWER: Correct. This is also why they try to prevent people from listening to me. They are convinced that the reason they lost was that I was too influential and had too many institutions listening to me. That absurdity is what they ran to the government with, so I was then accused of “manipulating” the world economy. They all lost after I warned them and refused to join in their takeover of Russia I believe I was given the nod by the Clintons. They told me they had the IMF in their back pocket and they would continue to fund Russia. I warned them that the IMF got their funding from governments and they were not going to back it.

The Russian financial crisis hit Russia on the 17th of August 1998. Our World Economic Conference was held in London that June. Our forecast was then published by the London Financial Times on the front page of the second section.

They did not give up. After they got the Federal Reserve to bail them out, they then focused on setting up Yeltsin and got him to divert $7 billion in IMF loans. Even CNN reported the money was stolen from the IMF.

CNN Theft of IMF Money – Sep. 1, 1999

Edmond Safra’s Republic National Bank ran to the Department of Justice and then reported that a $7 billion money laundering scheme just went through Bank of New York. They attempted to blackmail Yeltsin to step down and appoint their guy; Yeltsin then turned to Putin. It was the US bankers, with the support of the Clintons, who first tried to interfere into Russian elections. This is why Putin was not friendly to Clinton and said Mueller could come to question anyone in Russia he liked, provided Russia could question Americans including Bill Browder who was Safra’s partner in Hermitage Capital.

While “The Forecaster” was shown even on TV throughout Europe, Canada, and Asia, the question is WHY was it banned in the United States? If it was just a conspiracy theory, they could care less. When something strikes closer to home, they ban it.

Sep 6 2019

The World through Everyone’s Eyes


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts

Re-Posted Sep 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Sir,

I appreciate that I may not always agree with what you write but I listen and examine and respect your viewpoint. You, in turn, have answered my many questions and discussed my comments with respect in return.

This makes me worry that the ability to discuss problems in a straightforward and thoughtful way may not be possible in the future.

Keep up the good work

F

REPLY: In order to be an international adviser, the very first lessons I learned was (1) listen to everyone, and (2) view the world through their eyes.

I was giving a lecture in Geneva to a small group of institutions back in 1982 but some had flown in from other countries. One was from Canada and the exchange was quite interesting. I had provided the forecasts on the individual currencies and then I moved to the commodities. The Canadian asked so he should be a buyer of gold and I said yes. The on Swiss institution said yes but your forecast on the Swiss franc would mean I would lose money.

When I looked at it in terms of each perspective it was clear. The rally in gold would be impressive only in US$ and CD$ so it was a buy for the Canadian and a sell for the Swiss. Indeed, the rally into 1983 was a strong rally for gold in US$ and CD$, but not in Swiss.

We all have a view and money to each of us is still a mental calculation based upon our home currency. To even do my job, I have to be able to see the world from all perspectives. We are all human and we will all act in our own self-interest.

My clients have trained me. Having to deal with many crises around the world forced me to see the world through global eyes. This is why MY DEFINITION of what constitutes a bull market is something which rises in ALL CURRENCIES!!!!! 

We will all never agree for we will always see things through our own pair of glasses. Never forget, others will respond in the same way.

My philosophy is very simple. There should be no law which compels others to act in a way I believe if correct provided their actions do not harm anyone else. I leave you alone and you leave me alone and we can all get along. I object to politics that seeks to exploit class warfare for historically that has ALWAYS, and without exception, led to civil wa

Sep 5 2019

BREXIT & the Attempt to Delay until January 2020 ECM Turning Point


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Sep 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

Prime Minister Borris Johnson had wanted an election on October 15, but Labour and other opposition MPs would not back the move while the option of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 remained open to the PM. The House of Lords said it would pass the legislation by Friday.

The British pound rallied on the defeat of the PM clinging to the notion that leaving the EU is somehow bad for Britain. It remains the same old dire predictions they used back in the nineties when Britain was not going to surrender the pound and adopt the euro.

While our models indeed pinpointed a Directional Change with rising volatility into the week of 9/16, the pound has held the October 2016 for now, but a close for September below 12350 keeps the pound in check.

This idea of trade being so important is really quite insane. Nevertheless, Trump has not helped by trying to create jobs with his trade negotiations. China will listen to the US news which will show Trump losing 2020 even if you put a monkey up as the Democratic candidate. The press is so against Trump that they will turn this trade issue into real insanity. Likewise, this aids those in Britain desperate to keep their perks and pensions in place so they are selling out Britain for personal gain using the same issue as trade.

So far the Euro/Sterling Cross has been following the forecast array perfectly. The low was March followed by the breakout May/June with a Directional Change due in September. The next target is November followed by January.

What is very clear is that the financial markets are far more afraid of Labour taking power than BREXIT. We do not see any reversal of fortune for the pound and its long-term decline before 2021. Labour has become extreme. They will most certainly destroy the capital formation in Britain perhaps once and for all.

 

Sep 5 2019

British Globalists Pass Bill to Block ‘No-Deal’ Brexit – Ongoing Elitist Efforts to Ignore British Referendum…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 4, 2019 by 

The jaw-dropping elitism expressed by British members of parliament continued today as globalists in the Conservative Party joined with globalists in the Labour Party and passed a bill in the UK House of Commons to block no-deal Brexit.  Their goal is to handcuff Prime Minister Boris Johnson from leaving the EU on October 31st.  [Backstory Here]

The multinational banks and financial elite have poured money toward the anti-Brexit politicians (both parties) and deployed all media efforts in an attempt to stop the U.K from leaving the European Union despite the majority of British who voted to leave in 2016.

The latest move by the elitist group, led by far-left Jeremy Corbyn, forces the U.K. to say in the EU until an agreement to exit the EU is affirmed.  However, the actual purpose of the bill is to empower the EU never to agree to *any* terms of Brexit, thereby keeping the U.K. in the EU forever.

Boris Johnson has requested a mid-October general election so the British people can remove the elitist politicians.  However, two-thirds of those same politicians would have to agree to allow a vote that would eliminate their position.  Therefore, the pontificating elite are also blocking any effort at a snap election.  It’s a mess.

Right now the upper chamber (House of Lords) has threatened to filibuster the lower chamber (House of Commons) bill in an effort to help their Prime Minister.  However, there is also a possibility Prime Minister Johnson could intentionally just ignore the law (if passed), proceed toward a no-deal Brexit and force Parliament to vote him out of office; which would trigger the general election vote the Prime Minister is seeking.

It’s a classic case of elitist politicians trying all parliamentary rules to override the majority vote of the people in the country.

Two centuries ago the masses would have already taken arms against their overseers, stormed the gates and hung the politicians from Tower Bridge.  Unfortunately, in 2019 it’s less likely to happen… Although if the elitist politicians keep this up, well, you never know.

(Via AP) – In a second straight day of parliamentary turmoil, the House of Commons voted by 327-299 in favor of an opposition bill to block a no-deal Brexit, sending it to Parliament’s upper chamber, the House of Lords.

Even so, the bill’s fate is unsure. With Johnson set to suspend Parliament for several weeks starting next week, pro-Brexit peers in the Lords are threatening to try to stop it by filibustering until time runs out.

“There is very little time left,” said Labour Party lawmaker Hilary Benn as he introduced the opposition bill. “The purpose of the bill is very simple: to ensure that the United Kingdom does not leave the European Union on the 31st of October without an agreement.”

The bill would require the government to ask the EU to delay Brexit until Jan. 31, 2020, if it can’t secure a deal with the bloc by late October.

The lawmakers hope to pass the bill into law — a process that can take months — by the end of the week, because Johnson plans to suspend Parliament at some point next week until Oct. 14.

Johnson became prime minister in July by promising to lead Britain out of the EU, breaking the impasse that has paralyzed the country’s politics since voters decided in June 2016 to leave the bloc. But he is caught between the EU, which refuses to renegotiate the deal it stuck with May, and a majority of British lawmakers opposed to leaving without an agreement. Most economists say a no-deal Brexit would cause severe economic disruption and plunge the U.K. into recession. (read more)

Perhaps nothing personifies the elitist outlook more than this letter from Phillip Lee a member of Boris Johnson’s own party who is resigning because the Prime Minister continues to listen to the unwashed people, disregard the elites and pursue Brexit.

Read this:

(Source)

…”the twin diseases of populism and English nationalism”?

Dr Lee is apoplectic that any politician might listen to the British people.

MP Phillip Lee openly states any British person who wants to leave the EU is suffering from a disease of wrongful thought; and accuses them of British patriotism.  How dare they be so bold….

The open elitist worldview is really quite remarkable.

The Associated Press

✔@AP

 · 

Brexit

News from The Associated Press, the definitive source for independent journalism from every corner of the globe.

apnews.com

Alan Wilton@Alanpw1955

Blocking no deal Brexit means we either accept any deal the rest of EU deems appropriate, which of course will be entirely to their advantage, or we don’t leave the EU at all. Either way we’re screwed and U.K. democracy is dead and buried. We need to kick out the traitors.

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Sep 4 2019

U.K Report: All Conservative Lawmakers Who Rebelled Against Brexit Kicked Out of Party….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on September 3, 2019 by 

Righteous !

LONDON (Reuters) – All 21 lawmakers from the ruling Conservative Party who voted against the government to back a motion to seize control of parliamentary time to try to block a ‘no deal’ Brexit are being kicked out of the party, the BBC’s political editor said on Tuesday, citing government sources.

The group includes former finance minister Philip Hammond and Nicholas Soames, the grandson of former prime minister Winston Churchill. (Link)

Sep 4 2019

Chaos in UK Parliament as Globalists From Both Parties Attempt to Block PM Johnson’s Brexit…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on September 3, 2019 by 

All of the elitist political masks are dropping today in Great Britain.  The UniParty within British Parliament is on full display.

Globalist members of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party crossed lines to vote with the globalists in the Labour party in a scheme to stop the U.K. from leaving the European Union.

The minority Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, developed a plan to stop any ‘No Deal’ exit from the EU by passing a law that required the U.K. (PM Johnson) to have a deal with the European Union in order to fulfill the Brexit referendum.

In order to accomplish this plan the globalists (ie, the ‘Remain’ group) needed support from the Remainers in both parties.  Today 21 members of Boris Johnson’s party joined with Jeremy Corbyn to seize control of the House of Commons in a 328 to 301 vote.

The Remainers next step would be to pass legislation requiring a deal with the EU, which would essentially block Prime Minister Johnson from delivering a No-Deal Brexit.

Johnson fired back by saying he would demand a SNAP election on October 14th, where voters in the nationalist Brexit party could remove the usurping rebels from his own party.  However, to get the snap election would require two-thirds vote to support.

Corbyn doesn’t want the British people to have a voice in the matter, and will not allow Prime Minister Johnson to have the Snap election…. But Corbyn also doesn’t want the political fallout from blocking democracy, so he’s being obtuse and saying the SNAP election should come after his legislation is constructed to block the no-deal Brexit.

Overall it is once again a political scheme, run by elitists, to stop the people within Britain from removing politicians who want to remain in the EU.  Brexiteers -vs- Globalists.

If a Snap election were held, Brexit Party Leader Nigel Farage would rally the British people to remove the globalists in both parties.  The Snap election would likely wipe-out the Remain/Globalist assembly in both Labour and Conservative parties. This would then force a no-deal Brexit, and Great Britain would finally be out of the EU.  So Jeremy Corbyn cannot allow a Snap election until after he can get the “no-deal law” passed.

(Via Daily Mail)  Boris Johnson called for a snap election tonight after he Remainers seized control of Parliament to rule out No Deal Brexit.

The Prime Minister humiliatingly lost a crunch vote that gives a rebel alliance control of Commons business – with the aim of passing a law to stop the UK crashing out at the end of October.

The victory for pro-EU MPs – by a huge margin of 328 to 301 – came despite Mr Johnson threatening to end the careers of Tories who joined the revolt by deselecting them.

Some 21 Conservatives – including eight former Cabinet ministers – took part in the mutiny.

Senior figures such as Ken Clarke and Philip Hammond face being brutally ejected from the party in what one government source described as a ‘bloodbath’.

That will leave the government an eye-watering 43 MPs short of a majority, and completely unable to control the House.

Speaking after the result, Mr Johnson said Parliament was ‘on the brink of wrecking’ the Brexit negotiations.

‘The people are going to have to choose,’ he said. ‘I can confirm tonight we are tabling a motion under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.’

The motion to trigger a poll will be put to another crucial vote tomorrow night.

However, the law dictates that two-thirds of the Commons must agree to hold an early election, meaning he needs Opposition support.

And despite spending years demanding a poll, Jeremy Corbyn said tonight that the No Deal legislation must be passed before a snap poll can happen.  (more)

Analogous:

  • The Brexit party is essentially the MAGA coalition.
  • The Conservative party is essentially the GOPe Republicans.
  • The Labour party is essentially the Democrats.

What is happening in the U.K. is essentially the same uprising happening all over the globe.  Nationalists, the ordinary middle-class (ie. Trump voters), are rising-up and confronting the elitist-minded Globalists.

In an effort to remain in power, the globalists are furiously working all kinds of schemes to fend-off the nationalists.  The schemes, many of them funded by multinationals and lobbyists defending their financial stakes, include uniting with the socialist elite.

Globalism writ large requires Big Government, central planning, and full control of systems by political elites.  Socialism requires exactly the same structure.  Through globalism you have multinational corporations, financial elites, making rules for the underclass.  Socialism requires the exact same top-down distribution process.

A few high powered political institutions (think Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren) decide the wealth distribution and sharing processes used to support the masses.  They retain power through control at all costs.  Within this alignment you see financial elites, globalists in every sense of the word, accepting socialism as a tool to retain corrupt power and influence; and defend against the independent action of lower-class rubes.

Another very recent example of this surfaced in Italy where Globalist (beholden to the multinational financial interests) Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’ has now aligned with the far-left Five Star Party socialists, to keep power.

Donald Trump (U.S.), Nigel Farage (U.K), Matteo Salvini (Italy), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil) and Shinzo Abe (Japan) are all disrupting agents. Each of them is more nationalist toward their countries economics; and stand adverse to the interests of the multinationals.

Angela Merkel (Germany), Emmanuel Macron (France), Donald Tusk (EU), Justin Trudeau (Canada), Moon Jae-in (South Korea), Nancy Pelosi (U.S.) and now Giuseppe Conte’ (Italy), all personify the social construct of the elitist world-view.   These same globalist outlooks will even align with Communism (Xi Jinping, China) to retain power.

Individual Freedom -vs- Socialist Authoritarianism.

Nationalism -vs- Globalism

Main Street -vs- Wall Street.

Ultimately it’s all the same fight..

Nigel Farage

✔@Nigel_Farage

If @BorisJohnson confirms that 21 Remainer Tory rebels will be kicked out of the party, that would be an act of real leadership.

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talkRADIO

✔@talkRADIO

Susan has travelled from Yorkshire to protest at Westminster: “I am disgusted parliament is not implementing our decision… I want to go without a deal. I never thought I’d say that. I want out.”

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Nigel Farage

✔@Nigel_Farage

I fear that we are rapidly headed towards a very dark place.

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The Brexit Party

✔@brexitparty_uk

Record numbers watching Brexit Party Leader @Nigel_Farage’s speech across our platforms tonight. Don’t miss it. ⬇️ https://www.pscp.tv/w/cD6iJzF4blFybm5XYURvUVl8MWxER0xvWmFremFLbSv5XfXL9_XPrQY78p431i53Q9-n3kgrc6GCsao4AcOS …

The Brexit Party @brexitparty_uk

Boris may not be prepared for a general election, but We Are Ready for one!

pscp.tv

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Sep 2 2019

The Surrender of Liberty in the Name of Security


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Sep 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: It seems that as we get closer to a change-over of economic systems that as a society we are more willing to give up our rights to the State. Is that part of a pattern during these types of events? Was it seen as Britain, Rome, and other countries lost power after their peaks?
DS

ANSWER: Unfortunately, the trend first materializes when people need the government to protect them usually from an external force. The British used this tactic against both the French and the American colonists. That prompted Ben Franklin to comment on this trend.

After the 3rd Century Monetary Crisis bottomed in the Roman Empire in 268 AD, there was a surge to build a wall around Rome by Emperor Aurelian following the same pattern. Aurelian saw the corruption that led to the debasement of the currency because those minting the coins were robbing the treasury. Aurelian moved to DRAIN THE SWAMP in Rome. When Aurelian returned to Rome in 271 AD after fighting off barbarians, he had to pacify a terrified city. He immediately halted the rioting and restored order to the capital. The controller of the mint in Rome began a rebellion over the monetary reforms laid out by Aurelian. He ordered that all the debased currency be purchased back and replaced with a new currency of higher content in silver. The rebellion was led by Felicissimus.

It appears that those who had been running the mint were embezzling the intended silver and issuing the debased coinage at least in part on their own authority. Obviously, any reform to the monetary system that called for an increase in silver content would have been unprofitable for those running the mint for personal gain. In the rebellion, as many as 7,000 soldiers died when Aurelian was forced to trap and execute them and their allies, some of the senatorial rank, in a terrible battle on the Caelian Hills.

Aurelian then constructed a wall around Rome — the first of its kind. Clearly, there was both a DRAINING OF THE SWAMP and a sense of security that people surrendered in the name of safety. The final phase comes when the suppression of liberty continues to become oppressive and therefore the people eventually wake up and see that the government is using this as a tactic to sustain or grab more power usually in self-defense.

Sep 2 2019

Why Japan Lost So Big Post-1989


Armstrong Economics Blog/Japan

Re-Posted Sep 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty, I come from a golfing family and remember very well the shock when a Japanese investment group bought the Pebble Beach Golf Links, in 1990, for $850 million. The previous October Japanese investors bought the Rockefeller Center, triggering a flurry of Japanese purchases of signature U.S. properties such as Pebble Beach.

Was all this investment caused by The Plaza Accord in 1985, which devalued the USD by 40 percent? Which, as you’ve pointed out, also devalued American assets held by Japanese, igniting a sell-off of American investments and the 1987 crash. With cash repatriated back to Japan, the capital inflows into Japan ran the Nikkei up to its peak, in 1989. Within this late-80s early-90s timeframe, this is when the Japanese made their global malinvestments such as Pebble Beach, which they sold just two years later, in 1992, for $500 million, taking a 42 percent loss. Do I have the correlations and causations correct?

Thanks,

TGM

ANSWER: Yes. The Japanese bought US assets at the peak of their markets in 1989. As you can see, the dollar against the yen kept falling into April 1995. Not only did the Japanese lose money on US assets, but they also lost, even more, when they sold them and converted it back to yen on the decline in the dollar.

Currency is EVERYTHING. It dramatically alters the capital flows and can destroy economies because people remain clueless about how foreign exchange markets even function. That should be no surprise since they still teach all the economic theories of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate era including Keynesianism.

That is why everyone in the field is self-taught. You cannot get a degree in hedge fund management. Christine Lagarde of the IMF and soon to be head of the European Central Bank is a lawyer with no experience in funds management. People run for president spouting economic promises without the slightest background even in economics. What they teach in school has become ever more irrelevant in the real world. Other than a doctor or lawyer, it is hard to find someone who is working in the field in which they obtained a degree

Sep 2 2019

Gold in Currencies


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange

Re-Posted Sep 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Marty,
I have a question about Gold & Silver in other currencies – namely GBP.
Accepting your rational, with evidence I must say, that precious metals are a reflection of the confidence people have in their countries currency, you can see from the price of gold & silver in GBP and EURO that leading up to the Brexit referendum until now confirms this. When you look at the ECM for this period – 2015.75 up to 2020.05 – you can see that there are three main waves to it. One wave down from 2015.75 to 2016.825, then three shorter wave from 2016.825 to 2018.89 – single consolidation wave?, then a third wave down from 2018.89 to 2020.05. Gold & Silver rallied, consolidated, then rallied again within this ECM period. Does Gold & Silver have their own internal cycle? Will your upcoming report include content on Gold & Silver in other currencies? The trade in Gold:GBP since the ECM turning point of 2015.75 has been very lucrative

– thanks for your service and opening up Socrates for us.
Regards,
AJ
England.

ANSWER: When you plot gold in dollars and pounds, you can see the steepness in the pound. This has been the strength in gold in dollars. It has been the hedge, not against fears of inflation in the USA, but it has risen in the face of the fear of a recession OPPOSITE of its previous relationships. This is all because we are approaching a Monetary Crisis Cycle.

Forecasting gold in dollars is pointless for that will be irrelevant to those in different countries. So yes, our report will be in terms of all the major currencies so people can make the appropriate decision in their own currency.

Categories: Fore