Tag Archives: Central Planning

May 10 2017

Can a Federal Judge Hold You Til you Die in a Civil Case?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law

Re-Posted May 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I read Zero Hedge on where a Federal Judge Declares Constitution Void, Threatens Civil Defendant With Death. These judges are really out of control. How can they keep someone in a civil case in prison until they die?

ANSWER: Because the Court of Appeals do absolutely NOTHING to defend the citizens in the country, we have judges who are drunk with their power. Appeal courts will NEVER chastise a judge. Very early in my case before there was any contempt, I met with three law firms that were representing me from – New York, New Jersey, and London. Right there in the meeting they were talking about how the receiver Alan Cohen was speaking ex parte with the judge and this is why we will cannot get a fair trial. I said file to recuse the judge! My lawyer at Tenzer Greenblat in New York immediately said – this firm will never file a recusal motion. If we did, our firm would be prejudiced by all the judges in New York. That is why I went pro se. It was clear that law firms have a self-interest and will not defend clients if it will hurt their firm. They sell you down the river destroying our constitutional system. My recommendation is NEVER hire a lawyer from the same town. Their business depends upon the judges in that town so they WILL NEVER defend you if it will harm their business. This only adds to the arrogance of judges.

Anyone who dares to support the justice system deserves to be in a personal lock-up. I met one of the claimed terrorists who had a box cutter on the train in Texas during the 911 incident. The government knew he was innocent so they put him of diesel therapy, which is when they move you to a new prison each day to prevent any lawyers or press from finding you and you cannot make any phone calls in transit. This kid was in the holding cell and inmates told him to ask me for help because I had legal training. He handed me papers they gave him to sign. He was starved. Tortured. You could see all his chest bones for he lost all fat appearing from some famine torn country yet in the care of the American Justice System. I read the the papers they handed him. They said he was waiving all rights to sue the US government in return for him being deported that night. The press knew he was innocent and lawyers were trying to find him as was his family. They wanted to cover it all up and get rid of him before he could tell anyone what they did to him.

The CNN reported after the fact: Ayub Ali Khan and Mohammed Jaweed Azmath were caught in a wave of detentions that began in the days after the September 11 hijackings of four U.S. airliners. “We have not found any ties to 9-11, and it doesn’t look like we’ll be able to do so in the future,” said one source. 

The two men took a flight that day from Newark, New Jersey, which was grounded in St. Louis, Missouri, when the Federal Aviation Administration imposed a nationwide “ground-stop.” Traveling together, the two then boarded a train for San Antonio, Texas.

Police arrested them in Texas during what was called a routine drug sweep of the train.

Authorities say the men were carrying box cutters similar to ones used by the hijackers, $5,600 in cash and hair dye. During a strip search, investigators discovered both men had shaved all their body hair — just as the hijackers had been instructed to do in a so-called “mission manual” left behind by the 19 suspected hijackers.

People often express condolence for what I went through. I was also given the strength to stand unbroken and defy them eye to eye. So in that respect, what I learned and observed from the inside of how these people really treat human beings is an experience that has been absorbed into my character. We learn and progress through life. I survived even their attempt to kill me. I speak out because I can and because that is what they tried to stop. These people are the ultimate definition of evil.

In my case, to stop me from going to trial and to look at all my defense papers, they threw me into solitary confinement, took all my legal papers, told me if I wanted to go to trial it would be with absolutely nothing. After reviewing my defense, they came and admitted they did not want to go to trial. They knew I would call all the bankers to the stand and I have a very good memory. You can take my research, but that does not erase it from my mind. I would interrogate them and expose every manipulation in a public forum and their greatest fear was (1) I knew the financial system, and (2) I knew the law. That was a deadly combination they could not overcome if they wanted to protect the bankers.

The compromise was finally they wrote the script I was to read as any hostage held by some terrorist. Constitutionally, if you plead you are supposed to do it in your own words and the judge is supposed to make sure it is not coerced. This was completely illegal, but nobody does anything.

I refused to plead to any pretend conspiracy so the compromise was I failed to tell my clients the bank stole the money when I learned on Friday and went to my lawyers Monday morning. They said I should have told all institutions over the weekend the bank stole the money even if I was not 100% sure of the outcome and they might return it.

I had resolved myself that I would simply die in prison indefinitely. You come to peace with that decision and look forward to not waking up one day. You are in the hands of the most ruthless judicial system in the world, which has no checks and balances whatsoever. It is like you are in some B-Movie of some corrupt Banana Republic – but you are in the United States. I self-surrendered because I thought it would show you are willing to stand trial. Then my lawyer Richard Altman tells me, you should have fled to Britain and then you would get an extradition hearing. The US government would have to actually put on a case to show evidence that if committed something.

The government tried to kill me after the plea but before sentencing. They left one inmate’s door unlocked as they did mine. I was taken to the hospital in a coma for a few days, but survived to their dismay. I have no compassion for anyone who works in the Justice Department and would never hire a lawyer who ever worked for the government. There is nothing these people will not do to win. You have zero rights and they will kill you and go celebrate at dinner afterwards. You cannot possibly image the type of people who gravitate to these positions. I believe they are the kids who tortures cats and dogs for fun

May 10 2017

If the Majority Must Always Be Wrong – Can that Ever Change?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted May 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I find it interesting that you say the majority must always be wrong. I read Kenneth Rogoff’s comment on Davos and how the predictions there are always wrong. Do you think this can ever change or is it just how it works?

ANSWER: Yes, I reported on that comment by Rogoff. The MAJORITY must always be wrong for they are the fuel that moves markets as well as politics. I have been stating persistently that the Dow cannot “C R A S H” when the majority are bearish and retail participation is at historic lows. The question you pose is a very interesting one indeed.

I would have  to say NO. I do not believe that can ever change. Human nature is such that it never changes throughout the centuries. The issues may change with technology, but human responses will always be the same. A mother still cries for her son lost in war today as she did in ancient times.

What I do believe is we each have our own cycle. We progress through this journey of life hopefully learning from our mistakes. We buy the high and sell the low when we begin following the crowd. As we learn and progress with age, we end up being the person who sells the high to the novice just entering the cycle.

The best we can do is learn and survive ourselves. I do not believe we can change human nature. That is the same reason why Communism failed. It is also why politicians become corrupt. It’s too tempting for them, which is why they cannot stand Trump. He cannot be bought. No amount of money will change his life style of that of his family. It’s now all about accomplishment and being remembered.

 

May 10 2017

Vancouver Real Estate Forecast – Regulation & Currency


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada

Re-Posted May 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I am new to your services. I purchased the Canadian report on the property markets. I am fascinated by your ability to forecast so many events. I understand it is the computer for sure and no individual has the time to forecast so many markets all the time. It appears your forecast on the real estate in Vancouver was right on target. Am I correct in assuming this was caused by the regulation changes and the trend in the US dollar?

Thank you

DK

ANSWER: Yes to regulation and the dollar. The Savings & Loan (S&L) Crisis in the 1980s was caused by a change in tax code whereby the US Congress wanted to tax the rich so they changed the tax credits in real estate. They took a bull market and turned it into a one-way sellers’ market with no bid. They had to order S&Ls to lend into the real estate market. So when the real estate market collapsed, they then blamed the S&L and went to even criminally prosecute directors. I provided the warning to members of Congress what would happen if they changed the tax code. Of course, they ignored the warning and the crisis unfolded as any person with common sense would have expected.

Charles Humphrey Keating, Jr. (1923–2014) operated the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association in Irvine California. When Lincoln Savings & Loan failed in 1989, it cost the federal government over $3 billion and about 23,000 customers were left with worthless bonds. The government, which caused the fail, then criminally charged Keating and of course they convicted him. The argument was he KNEW he would fail 7 years in advance so the bonds he sold he KNEW he would default on making it a crime. He served four and a half years in prison before those convictions were overturned in 1996. The theory of that case was absurd. I have never encountered the head of any company that was major where the director knew the company would fail 7 years in advance. The government made Keating the scapegoat for whole S&L Crisis Congress created.

Today, just add to this the Vancouver real estate market the trend in China trying to stop the outflow of cash that has been pouring out of the country. If you change the capital flows, you change the markets.

It’s not hard to put this together as long as you keep a global view and an understanding of history and how it unfolds for government is typically the source of all economic crisis. Politicians are absolutely clueless. The regulation changes in the property market in London set in motion the collapse in values there as well and in Australia they even outlawed foreigners from buying real estate.

May 9 2017

Bitcoin Soars Over $1700 – 2017’s Best-Performing Currency


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 9, 2017 8:14 AM

Bitcoin is now up for 16 of the last 18 days, soaring over 50% in the last month and up almost 90% in 2017 – making its the year’s best performing currency.

There appears to be no specitic catalyst for today’s move as the surge in Japanese interest (as we detailed here) and news that Russia is considering, like Japan just did, to allow cryptocurrencies as a legal payment method are outweighing fears over ‘hard forks’, SEC rejections, and Chinese crackdowns.

 

One wonders whether this ‘spurious’ correlation has anything to do with Bitcoin’s rise – as Venezuela’s black market Bolivar plunges into hyperinflationary collapse, non-fiat currencies are bid…

We summarized the ongoing bitcoin frenzy as follows last week: “just as the Chinese bubble frenzy in bitcoin is fading, it may be replaced with a new one, in which thousands of Mrs. Watanabe traders shift their attention away from the FX market and toward digital currencies” and added that “If the transition is seamless, there is no telling just how far this particular bubble can grow.”

Five days later and $250 dollar higher, we are observing first hand how accurate this prediction may have been, although like last week, we have no way of telling how long this particular mania phase will last

May 9 2017

President Trump Announces Third Wave of Federal Judicial Nominations…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 8, 2017 by

[ Via White House ] President Donald J. Trump today announced his third wave of Federal judicial appointments. These appointments follow the successful nomination and confirmation of Justice Neil M. Gorsuch to the Supreme Court of the United States and the nomination of Judge Amul R. Thapar of Kentucky to serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. Specifically, the President today announced his nomination of these individuals to the following Federal judgeships.

♦ If confirmed, Amy Coney Barrett of Indiana will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. Amy Coney Barrett currently serves as the Diane and M.O. Miller II Research Professor of Law at the Notre Dame University Law School. Professor Barrett teaches and researches in the areas of federal courts, constitutional law, and statutory interpretation—publishing scholarship in leading legal journals, such as the Columbia, Virginia, and Texas Law Reviews. Before joining the Notre Dame faculty, Professor Barrett clerked for Associate Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge Laurence H. Silberman of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Following her clerkships, as an associate at Miller, Cassidy, Larroca & Lewin in Washington, D.C., she litigated constitutional, criminal, and commercial cases in both trial and appellate courts. Professor Barrett has also served as a visiting associate professor and John M. Olin Fellow in Law at the George Washington University Law School, and as a visiting associate professor of law at the University of Virginia. Professor Barrett received her B.A. in English literature, magna cum laude, from Rhodes College, and her J.D., summa cum laude, from the Notre Dame University Law School, where she served as Executive Editor of the Notre Dame Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, John K. Bush of Kentucky will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. John Bush is currently a partner in the Louisville office of Bingham Greenebaum Doll LLP and is Co-Chair of the firm’s Litigation Department. Mr. Bush practices in complex litigation, including antitrust, securities, financial institutions, insurance, intellectual property, and product liability disputes. He has extensive litigation experience in state and Federal courts in many jurisdictions and in arbitration proceedings. Before joining Bingham Greenebaum Doll LLP, Mr. Bush practiced law at Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher LLP in Washington, D.C. Earlier in his career, Mr. Bush clerked for Judge J. Smith Henley of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. Mr. Bush received his B.A., summa cum laude, from Vanderbilt University and his J.D., cum laude, from Harvard Law School.

♦ If confirmed, Joan L. Larsen of Michigan will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. Justice Joan Larsen currently serves as the 111th Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court. Justice Larsen was appointed to the Court in 2015, and was then elected to that Court by the people of Michigan in 2016—winning every county in the state. Before assuming office, Justice Larsen served on the faculty of the University of Michigan Law School, where she was also special counsel to the Dean. An award-winning legal scholar, Justice Larsen taught for more than a decade at the University of Michigan, where she received the L. Hart Wright Award for Excellence in Teaching. Before joining the University of Michigan faculty, Justice Larsen clerked for Associate Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge David B. Sentelle of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Justice Larsen received her B.A. from the University of Northern Iowa and her J.D. from Northwestern University Law School, from which she graduated first in her class and where she served as an Articles Editor on the Northwestern University Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, Kevin C. Newsom of Alabama will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit. Mr. Newsom is currently the chair of the appellate group at Bradley Arant Boult Cummings, resident in the firm’s Birmingham office. Before joining Bradley, Mr. Newsom served as the Solicitor General of Alabama, where he directed the State’s litigation before the Supreme Court of the United States, the United States Courts of Appeals, and the Alabama Supreme Court. Mr. Newsom has argued four cases in the Supreme Court of the United States and has argued more than 35 cases in the United States Courts of Appeals for the Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Tenth, and Eleventh, and D.C. Circuits, as well as in state supreme and appellate courts and a Native American tribal appellate court. In addition to this service, Chief Justice John Roberts has twice appointed Mr. Newsom to the Advisory Committee on Appellate Rules, which advises the Judicial Conference of the United States concerning amendments and improvements in the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure. Earlier in his career, Mr. Newsom clerked for Associate Justice David Souter of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge Diarmuid O’Scannlain of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Mr. Newsom received his B.A., summa cum laude, from Samford University, and his J.D., magna cum laude, from Harvard Law School, where he served as an Articles Editor on the Harvard Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, David R. Stras will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. Justice David Stras currently serves as a Justice on the Minnesota Supreme Court. Justice Stras was appointed to the Court in 2010. Before his appointment to the Minnesota Supreme Court, Justice Stras was a professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, while also serving as counsel at the Minneapolis law firm of Faegre & Benson. Earlier in his career, Justice Stras clerked for Associate Justice Clarence Thomas of the Supreme Court of the United States, Judge J. Michael Luttig of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, and for Judge Melvin Brunetti of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Justice Stras received his B.A. with highest distinction from the University of Kansas, his M.B.A. from the University of Kansas, and his J.D. from the University of Kansas School of Law, where he served as editor-in-chief of the Criminal Procedure Edition of the Kansas Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, David C. Nye of Idaho will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Idaho. Judge David C. Nye currently serves as an Idaho trial court judge in Pocatello, Idaho. Judge Nye was appointed to the state trial court in 2007 and was reelected by the people of Idaho to that position in 2010 and 2014. Previously, Judge Nye was a partner at Merrill & Merrill, Chartered, in Pocatello, Idaho. Judge Nye received his B.A. and his J.D. from Brigham Young University.

♦ If confirmed, Scott L. Palk of Oklahoma will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Oklahoma. Scott Palk currently serves as the Assistant Dean for Students and Assistant General Counsel at the University of Oklahoma College of Law in Norman, Oklahoma—a position he has held since 2011. Mr. Palk took this position after 19 years of public service as a state and Federal prosecutor, where he worked on death penalty, organized crime, and terrorism cases. Mr. Palk earned his undergraduate degree in Business Administration from Oklahoma State University and his J.D. from the University of Oklahoma College of Law.

♦ If confirmed, Damien M. Schiff of California will serve as a Judge on the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Damien Schiff is currently a Senior Attorney at the Pacific Legal Foundation, a non-profit legal organization based in Sacramento, California. Mr. Schiff has extensive experience litigating cases concerning a variety of Federal and state environmental and land-use issues, including Sackett v. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, a groundbreaking decision in which the United States Supreme Court upheld the right of landowners to challenge Clean Water Act compliance orders issued by the Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier in his career, Mr. Schiff clerked for Judge Victor J. Wolski of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Mr. Schiff received his B.A., magna cum laude, from Georgetown and his J.D., magna cum laude, from the University of San Diego School of Law in 2004.

President Donald J. Trump Announces Intent to Nominate Judicial Candidates

The President today announced his intent to nominate of these individuals to the following Federal judgeships.

♦ If confirmed, Dabney L. Friedrich of Washington, D.C., will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Dabney Friedrich has a lengthy career of distinguished public service. Most recently, Ms. Friedrich served as a Commissioner on the United States Sentencing Commission, where she established sentencing policies and practices for the Federal criminal justice system by promulgating guidelines for congressional review and recommending changes in criminal statutes. Prior to that service, Ms. Friedrich served as an Associate Counsel to the President during the George W. Bush Administration, as Chief Crime Counsel to Senator Orrin G. Hatch, as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia, as a trial attorney at the Department of Justice, and as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of California. Before holding those positions, Ms. Friedrich clerked for Judge Thomas F. Hogan of the District of Columbia District Court. Ms. Friedrich received her B.A., magna cum laude, from Trinity University, her Diploma in Legal Studies from Oxford University, and her J.D. from Yale Law School, where she served as a Senior Editor on the Yale Journal on Regulation.

♦ If confirmed, Terry F. Moorer of Alabama will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Alabama. Judge Terry F. Moorer currently serves as a Magistrate Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Alabama, a position he assumed in 2007. Before assuming his judgeship, Judge Moorer served as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Middle District of Alabama, as a Command Judge Advocate in Camp Arifjan, Kuwait, and as an attorney in the Office of Staff Judge Advocate in Fort Rucker, Alabama. Judge Moorer earned his Associate of Arts from the Marion Military Institute, his B.A. from Huntington College, and his J.D. from the University of Alabama Farrah School of Law.

(White House Link)

May 9 2017

Canada’s Liberal Politics Behind Trudeau’s Antagonistic Trade Positions…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 8, 2017 by

Actually, seeing this outlined in Reuters is a very good sign of things to come.  The pending NAFTA trade renegotiation between the U.S. (Trump/Ross) and Canada (Trudeau) correctly viewed through the prism of Canadian politics.  This is exactly the correct perspective.

The larger liberal need is for Trudeau to pander to the constituencies of Quebec, even if it means economic disaster and crushing collapse for the entire country of Canada.  This reality is exactly the ideological zero-sum perspective of the liberal mind and worldview.

Complete economic disaster is what Prime Minister Trudeau will do to Canada if he chooses to continue positioning against the U.S. with President Donald J Trump.

VIA REUTERS – Canada escalated a trade dispute with United States by making threats Washington called inappropriate in part because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is under pressure to secure support in a key region ahead of the country’s 2019 elections.

Washington last month slapped tariffs on timber imports, prompting Trudeau to say he was considering a ban on exports of U.S. coal through Pacific ports.

As well as lumber, the administration of President Donald Trump has targeted Canadian dairy farmers, while Boeing Corp (BA.N) launched a trade challenge against Montreal-based planemaker Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO).

All three are vital to the economy of Quebec, Canada’s second most-populous province. And Quebec is seen as vital to Trudeau’s hopes of maintaining a strong grip on power in a national election set for October 2019.

As contentious talks on renegotiating NAFTA draw closer, Trudeau has little choice but to defend dairy farmers and offer help to the lumber industry, even though that is likely to prompt fresh U.S. challenges.

“Quebec is the key,” said one senior Liberal organizer.  (please read full article)

President Trump, Secretary Wilbur Ross and Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer will absolutely crush any international trade opponent in direct bilateral trade deals.  It’s really not hard for them to do; we are the biggest market in the world.

Shutting down access to the U.S. ($20+ trillion) market is the ultimate leverage and entire national economies can be forceably wiped out.  In an applied fair market system the end result of any renegotiated trade deal will be vastly more beneficial to U.S. workers and business interests.  Stunningly so.

In addition to the size of our economy, America is profoundly unique in that there is almost no product on the planet that cannot be replicated in the United States.  We are blessed with an abundance of energy, raw material, minerals and rich fertile land that can provide the basis for domestically manufactured/created products.  It is a remarkable point of distinction not found in any other region.

Additionally, our inherent American DNA strain is one of entrepreneurial existence.  We know how to do things, create things, and think completely outside the box on new and innovative ideas for things.   Yes, we are exceptional like that.

Reminder:

  • Florida Power and Light won the prestigious International Edward Demming award for excellence in multi-platform engineering and efficiency superiority. They didn’t blow every global PhD business intellectual out of the water with slide rules, CAD programs and engineering acumen. They did it with hard hats and dirty fingernails.

Because they lost the award, the Japanese spent 6 months studying FPL and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FPL “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: “WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY”….

  • When every single Kuwaiti oil field was blown up by Saddam Hussein, they said it would take 5 years to cap them all off and restart their oil pumping industry. The Kuwaiti’s and Saudi’s called Texans, who had them all capped and back in working order in 6 to 10 months.

We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.

  • When the Northern Chile mine workers were trapped two miles underground, they said no-one could save them. Who did they call for help? A bunch of hick miners from USA coal country who went down there, worked on the fly, engineered the rescue equipment on site, and saved everyone of them….

That’s our America.

  • When a half-breed Islamic whack job, armed with an AK-47 and a goal to meet his fourty-seven virgins, began opening fire on a train in France – the Americans on board didn’t run to the nearest safe room and hide themselves amid baguettes and brie. They said “let’s go”, and beat the stuffing out of that little Islamic nut with a death wish.

Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us.  That’s just how we roll.

Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre.  Yet for the better part of the past decade a group of intellectual something-or-others have been teaching an insufferable storyline that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other.

Enough.

When I hear Donald Trump say “Let’s Make America Great Again”, I also hear the familiar echo “cowboy up” people.

It’s high time we stop being embarrassed about our exceptional nature, and start being proud of it again.   Because when it matters most, when it really counts, when it’s really needed, there’s a whole bunch of people all around this world of ours that are mighty happy when swagger walks in to solve their problems.

Yeah, “let’s make America great again”.  Swagger on !

 

May 9 2017

Macron’s Victory May Be Disaster for Merkel


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted May 9, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Angela Merkel was the first phone Emmanuel Macron made after the election.  My point about the election for Macron was the worst possible outcome for the Euro was not just reflected in yesterday’s outside reversal to the downside. Merkel has already made it clear that she will not relax  Eurozone spending rules to help Macron. The defeat of Le Pen has sealed the fate of Europe because there will be no reflection upon how to reform the EU to save Europe.

Only a sublime idiot would now think everything in Europe will be just great. We are looking at a major hard landing for Europe. Keep in mind that local governments even in the USA are doomed for all they can do is raise taxes further crushing their population and destroying their own economy.

Nonetheless, there is a lifetime in politics between the May victory for the establishment in France with Macron who cannot possibly help calm France and the election of Merkel in the fall. The biggest disappointment of Obama was being the first Black President, hopes were so high for a real change. When everyone saw he did the same thing as Bush, this set the stage for the Trump victory. Republic or Democrat offered nothing.

Our computer was correct in forecast the mainstream political parties in France would be defeated. That took place. Now the expectations are so high for Macron to change things, when the French people realize he is the same as what they had under Hollande, the backlash can still come before the German elections. The civil unrest in France is unbelievable. The tension there you can cut in the air with a knife.

Macron will fail and with him, the dream of Brussels.

May 9 2017

Emerging Market Debt Expanding Twice the Rate of 2016


Armstrong Economics Blog/Emerging Markets

Re-Posted May 9, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The view that BREXIT is a passing phase and Europe will extinguish the swell of populism, has led to more debt in dollars being racked up at a faster pace than ever in US dollars among emerging markets, which stood at about 50% of the US National Debt. The debt in new offering has exploded as bears continue to say the Dow will crash and the dollar with it. This had led to an extraordinary offering of new dollar debt which is close to $160 billion by the 1st of May, 2017. This represents more than twice the dollar value reached by May 1st last year.

The willingness of investors to buy debt securities is rooted in these bearish forecasts. I was recently asked to do an interview because they said they were desperate to find someone who was bullish on the equities market long-term. The vast majority keep touting the dollar will crash with the share market and this is fueling the explosion in new debt along with the expectation that interest rates will rise – not fall.

Investment funds specializing in emerging market bonds reported inflows of $ 1.9 billion, according to data provider EPFR Global. Also, exchange-traded funds from this sector were able to show more than $200 million. Investors from the US and Europe are currently particularly interested in corporate bonds from countries such as Brazil, Indonesia or Argentina, since they yield comparatively high returns and have rather short maturities. This is similar to the Russian bond collapse back in 1998, which took down Long-Term Capital Management.

The bond debt from developing countries is growing exponentially with total commitments reaching around $425 billion+. This crop of bonds have an average maturity of 6.3 years as compared to 10 year maturities for investment grade rated as risk-free.

This is adding to the crisis we see on the horizon and a dollar rally will set off a debt crisis like nobody has ever seen in more than 100 years. Private debt among emerging markets is almost about $1.6 trillion with maturity due to foreign creditors over the next five years. It looks like about 90% of this debt is in US dollars.

May 8 2017

“The Crisis Has Become Pandemic” – System To Collect Defaulted Student Loans Is No Longer Functioning


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 8, 2017 5:20 AM

The system used by the Dept. of Education to collect on defaulted student loans came to a standstill in the last month, leaving an estimated 91,000 accounts in limbo, when the agency ordered debt collectors under contract to stop making collections on accounts.

As Consumerist’s Ashlee Kieler reports, consumers who expected their student loan payments to be deducted from their bank accounts this month have reportedly found the funds untouched, and their calls to the companies unanswered thanks to a Department of Education’s order prohibiting the debt collection companies from working on default accounts in response to two lawsuits against the agency.

The strange turn of events began with a lawsuit filed by two debt collection companies, who claim they were unfairly were fired by the Obama-era Education Department for poor performance. On March 29, the judge issued a temporary restraining order that prevented any new defaulted borrowers from being assigned to debt collectors and put into rehabilitation programs. Instead, the borrowers have piled up inside the department’s system, waiting.

On April 21, the government ordered the debt collectors involved in the suit to stop work altogether on defaulted accounts: no phone calls, no withdrawals from student accounts, nothing.

The Education Department and the Justice Department are partly to blame for “unnecessarily” throwing a wrench into the entire defaulted loan system, one attorney with knowledge of the case told BuzzFeed News, because they’ve been unable to come to a resolution that allows the loan system to kick back into gear. “There’s no fix in sight.”

Judge Susan Braden has extended the emergency order [PDF] several times since then, noting that it was made to “preserve the status quo to protect the interests of all parties and to afford the government an opportunity to reach a global solution” to two lawsuits against the Dept. of Education.

The cases, filed separately by several debt collection firms, claim that the Dept. of Education unfairly terminated their contracts with the companies.

More recently, the Dept. of Education ordered servicers to stop work on defaulted accounts. The actions, the companies argued in court filings [PDF], “fundamentally alter the status quo and are not fiscally responsible to the borrowers or to the federal taxpayers.”

“Thus, the well-documented student loan crisis will become a pandemic not because this Court ordered that result, but because [Dept. of Education] thinks that is what this Court expects,” the companies argue.

This week, the Dept. of Education submitted a court filing detailing how the Judge’s order and its subsequent suspension of collection activities has affected consumers, Career Education Review reports.

The Dept. claims that the action “has effectively shut down the Government’s defaulted student loan collection program,” with an estimated 91,000 borrowers now stuck in limbo because their accounts weren’t assigned to a debt collector in April.

Additionally, the Dept. argues that by not assigning borrowers to collectors “tens of thousand of borrowers have been prevented from gaining access to rehabilitation programs” and other benefits.

BuzzFeed News reports that debt collection agencies say that since the Department ordered a stop to collection activities they have been inundated with calls from borrowers.

However, the companies can’t help the customers. This, they claim, has resulted in thousands of messages and complaints from borrowers.

The collectors, BuzzFeed reports, claim that because of this borrowers will re-default and those enrolled in repayment programs could lose their eligibility.

Suzanne Martingale, policy staff attorney for our colleagues at Consumers Union, tells Consumerist that the stop in collections and payments could do “untold damage to borrowers.”

“Meanwhile, they’re going to rack up a ton of charges as more interest accrues on their loans,” she adds.

As the work stoppage drags on, consumer protection advocates are confused about where borrowers stand, especially given a tangle of other lawsuits involving the loan companies and the government. “The whole process has been completely mind-boggling,” said Persis Yu, the director of the Student Loan Borrower Assistance Project at the National Consumer Law Center, who called the standstill “mystifying from a consumer protection standpoint.”

May 8 2017

Bill Blain: “Macron Will Prove A Disappointment As Nothing Is Actually Fixed In Europe”


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 8, 2017 5:57 AM

From Bill Blain’s latest Morning Porridge edition

“To summarise the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job..”

The best thing about the French Election is I’ve just won a case of very fine French wine on the result!

The papers and financial blogosphere are full of positivity – France is fixed, therefore the Euro is safe and its all great news. Put yer buying boots on.. And on the back of Friday’s very strong US numbers.. don’t worry that bonds continue to rally in the face of a likely Fed Hike..

Please.. the only thing good about the French vote is the least bad candidate won.

I question the grand expressions of upside the market is calling for. France has dodged a bullet, perhaps, but they aint solved the crisis – which boils to down to being the wrong economy using the wrong currency and absolutely no control of monetary or fiscal policy to fix it.

Macron has a head full of supply side policy cliches about sorting the labour market, and some catchy soundbites on Franco-German European hegemony – including the sacrifice of a fraction of the bloated state payroll. For all the hype, he’s a compromise of compromise candidates.

Lets not forget that fully 12% of the votes were spoilt – meaning a significant minority of Frenchmen made a conscious choice that neither candidate was any good!

I’ll make a grand prediction: Macron will prove a disappointment. His lack of power base from which to actually effect long term change across France means we’ll get one or other of the Le Pens in 5 years time.

Although he will no doubt trade on his youth and popularity – don’t be surprised if the lustre quickly fades. A number of blogs say he’ll quickly build a coalition of the willing.. I doubt it. He’s going to struggle to form any kind of working government in the face of the established parties, and hostility from right and left.

There is also the likelihood the electorate will come to realise the gifted young game-changer is actually as establishment as they come. Don’t forget he is the protégé of Jacques Attali –  those of us of a certain vintage will remember Attali as the archetypal enarch – squandering billions on titivating the Glistening Bank (The EBRD) with marble lifts and ego-building offices rather than actually lending. Macron’s paid up membership of the discredited French upper class is something a better organised Front Nationale will play to in coming years.

On the upside, the numbers are moving in Macron’s direction. The state isn’t in the same perilous debt position pre ECB intervention. A wee bit inflation will massage the numbers nicely. There are no immediate risks on the horizon. Unemployment is trending down (slowly), and is likely to boost his popularity. Merkel looks a shoe in for the German Election (very strong showing at the weekend in Danish Germany).

But, but and but again..

When Europe looks calm and sorted, its not. Nothing is actually fixed.. For all the happy posts this morning about Euro strength, which stocks to buy on the basis of French recovery, and the rest… I doubt it.

Although there is apparently nothing to worry about in Euroland anymore – we’ve still got the festering pustule that is Italy, episode 47 of the Greek Crisis on our doorsteps, and the who knows what coming from the Brexit negotiations. Europe will continue to amuse, fascinate and frustrate..

I don’t normally spend my Sundays watching the TV wallpaper paste that passes as “political comment” but as I supped my coffee, one soundbite caught my ear: “the aim of Europe is to ensure the economic collapse of the UK to make clear leaving the EU is never an option.”

Oh dear….

Is there a danger the now pointless UKIP decides to establish some convoluted relevance as the force of anti-Europeanism? Sure enough, someone later suggested we should mount a European boycott. If we stop buying French plonk, German cars, Spanish holidays, etc, then that’ll teach ’em.

It so happens an American chum of mine was in Yoorp over the weekend and he popped down for dinner last night. As he is an economist of some renown, and a former Scotsman before he went all Yankee on us, I asked his opinion on Brexit and what America thinks. He was succinct: “We don’t give a fig. As long as you all play nice and don’t break the global economy meaning we’ll have to bail it out, we really don’t care about Europe and the UK.” Nice.. but to the point..

A trade war with Europe and the nihilistic post UKIP politics of aggression would be a very bad idea… If I can’t get good European wine, it will inevitably mean drinking more Argentine Malbec.. Not a bad wine, but it’s impossible to function properly afterward!