Posted originally on Dec 11, 2024 by Martin Armstrong |
Many mistakenly look to the stock market as the leading indication of economic security. The true culprit is the DEBT market, not the stock market, that leads to depressions and recessions. A recession, in comparison to a depression, is merely a minor impact that could be isolated to one nation. Unemployment will typically rise up to 10% in a recession, whereas a depression could see a 25%+ turn in unemployment. A lack of work leads to civil unrest and upheaval. Depressions are never isolated to one nation as they spread as a contagion throughout the world.
You could take the stock market down 30%, even 40%, and still not create a depression. Yet, if you undermine government debt by far less, you will create a severe economic downturn. Look to the banks. Under law, banks are required to use government debt as a reserve. Undermining government debt simply wipes out the banking industry as we have historically seen when bank after bank is forced to shutter.
During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. Look at what happened in 1931 when Europe defaulted on its debt, as did Asia and so forth since depressions become contagions. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds.
This is an oversimplified version of this message but you can read more on the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis throughout this website. Governments default and then that often leads to a regime change. The incoming regime will simply say, “Oh, that was the debt of the last government and we need not pay.” Listen, the stock market could plunge 20% and the banks would be OK. But if you saw the same in the debt market, in particular sovereign debt, you’re in serious trouble.
Posted originally on Dec 11, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The migrant crisis in Europe is far worse than the mainstream media will let on. It began in 2015 when then Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the door to Syrian refugees. That door has remained open, and a new wave of unaccompanied men who do not understand or respect Western women have made the country a dangerous place to live or even travel.
A 20-year-old American woman traveling alone in Germany was sexually assaulted by a 64-year-old Eritrean migrant at Kaiserslautern train station. After exchanging words, the woman pulled out a knife and struck her attacker with a fatal blow to the heart. She claims she was acting on pure instinct, and video surveillance verifies her claims. However, proof of intent to kill is not required by German law to be tried.
“The public prosecutor’s office does not believe that the stabbing was justified by self-defense,” a spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office told reporters. Authorities have charged her with bodily harm rather than manslaughter, but still, she now could face up to 10 years imprisonment.
Should she have allowed this man to proceed? The German authorities would have preferred it that way as they have been ignoring the wave of migrant violence against women for many years. In 2015, over 1,200 girls across Germany were sexually assaulted by 2,000 men.
Initially, there was dead silence from officials and the press was not reporting the truthafter joining the cover-up conspiracy. Only after reports hit the internet (we even had clients contacting us) did the truth begin to surface. The police were even told to remove the word “RAPE” from all official reports on the Cologne attacks. Police Chief Wolfgang Albers, age 60, was fired after criticizing the police’s lack of involvement during the incident.
Now, foreigners account for 41% of all crimes in Germany after rising by 23% in 2022 and 19% in 2023. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has vowed to address this matter and increase border patrol measures. On the other hand, he says Germany has an international obligation to permit foreigners to seek asylum. How are women to protect themselves when the law is skewed in favor of migrants? The law will not permit a woman to use weapons in self-defense if her attacker is unarmed, even if he could easily overpower her. Every country led by such leftist ideology is facing a similar, dangerous situation.
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: When I ask someone about your theories, they claim you are unconventional. They said the same thing about Einstein and even Kynes in the early 1920s. It seems that anyone who thinks outside the box is labeled unconventional, but in the end, they adopt the very theories and become conventional. They seem to make history repeat, for they always defend their position, which is obviously wrong.
I just wanted to say that historical recurrence is not something new. It has played an important role in developing Western historiography since antiquity. I am sure you are well versed. The view that “history repeats itself” is characteristically Greek. They understood everything was cyclical from the observations of cosmic and social cycles. I believe you have explained that history repeats itself better than anyone. It is human nature for people to respond the same way to similar situations regardless of the century.
Your intention to hold a WEC for the next generation is vital. You are offering something academia will only acknowledge when they are forced into embarrassment as to place during the Great Depression. Only then did they turn to Keynes.
There are those of us willing to donate to such a project.
Please consider the importance of this for the next generation.
Paul
ANSWER: History repeats because human nature is constant regardless of the century. But it is often also driven by notions of retribution, rebirth, reenactment, and imitation. Both Hitler and Napoleon sought to resurrect the old Roman Empire. Because I witnessed the debasement of silver coinage in 1965 and was familiar with the debasement of Roman coinage and how they, too silver, plated bronze coinage to retain the appearance of silver as we created a nickel-clad coinage in 1965, as a kid, I instantly saw history repeating.
Here is a Roman coin of Marius (268AD). You can see that the silver plating is starting to wear off, revealing the core is merely bronze. Inflation was soaring, and President Kennedy signed an executive order to remove silver from the coinage in 1963. Here, we see in Rome that inflation also soared once emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) was captured in battle by the Persians – the first emperor to have even been captured. That also set in motion a financial panic where bankers were uncertain if they should even accept Roman coins anymore.
By the middle of the second century BC, Rome, Polybius of Megalopolis, had written his Historiae to explain how Rome conquered the known world. These thirty-nine books received their finality after 146BC. At first, Polybius was interested in Greek affairs. He was stunned by the rise of Rome and its rapid expansion into an empire. He attempted what he would call universal history rather than just looking at Rome as a local aberration or fluke. His Anacyclōsis offered basic paradigms of historical recurrence that were below the surface. Indeed, Polybius established that studying history provided sound political training (cf. Hist. I, I,2).
Polybius’s famous discussion of the mixed character of Rome’s republican constitution is found in Book 6, chap. 5. It was certainly Polybius who presupposed that past events reflected various paradigmatic movements and patterns that would reemerge in current and future affairs. It seems that the Dark Ages, which saw the death of knowledge and independent thought in Europe, also altered our understanding of the world and cycles.
They burned Giordano Bruno (1548–1600) alive at the stake for merely agreeing with Calpurnicus in suggesting that the Earth rotated around the sun. The stupidity of the closed-minded at that time saw Haven must be above and Hell was below, so if the Earth was not fixed, then all religion was wrong. Thus, burn him alive as a heretic.
I greatly appreciate the offer. We will do something like that, for I do not have the time to write a plan for students.
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
CEO of Lucid Motors and a former VP of engineering at Tesla Peter Rawlinson says his company is stuck in the EV “valley of death” as EVs in America “frankly suck.” Rawlinson admitted that China has an advantage in technology, but more over, they have the ability to produce affordable EVs.
“I think the Chinese do have a fundamental advantage because when the government says go, they all go in the same direction instead of arguing with each other,” Rawlinson said. China has provided over $230 billion to its newly emerging EV sector since 2009. “I’d say they’re still behind in terms of the core EV powertrain technology, but don’t underestimate them,” Rawlinson added.
The CEO also said that he personally drives the competitors cars and believes the “American public has been ill-served by underwhelming EVs.” His company is on track to produce a new electric SUV called Gravity that will retail for $94,900. Quality EVs are available in America but they come at a steep price which is why they have not become mainstream.
He is not alone in his thinking among industry leaders. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares previously believed China’s EVs would have a similar reception to the US public that Japanese autos did back in the 1970s. That was
Batteries account for around 40% of the total cost of EVs, and companies like BYD are able to maintain low prices are they own the supply chain to create these batteries from the raw materials to the finished packs.
The West is unaware how affordable Chinese EVs actually are without tariffs. The BYD Seagull EV Honor Edition starts at about $9,700. The BYD Dolphin EV Honor costs only $13,900 and the BYD Yuan electric SUV is $16,600. You cannot find used cars for these prices in the US, let alone an EV.
If those pushing to eliminate fossil fuels were truly concerned about emissions, they would permit China to import these EVs to Europe, Canada, and America without astronomical tariffs. Capital makes the world flow. They are deliberately preventing the Western public from purchasing affordable, good quality vehicles. Instead, they expect the average man to take on tens of thousands in debt to buy a lower quality car to save on fuel.
Posted originally on the CTH on December 9, 2024 | Sundance
It’s not AI per se’ that poses the problem, rather it is the ability of AI software to connect, filter and process multiple databases of stored information in real time, creating a tracking and tracing system, that can be weaponized and poses a problem for those who do not want the USA to turn into a full surveillance state.
When you combine government required “Real ID” with, enhanced facial recognition software, then connect the identity to a metadata library of all the public and private electronic information of a person, what you end up with is the ability to conduct total surveillance of a targeted individual without constitutional limits and privacy protections. This is the larger problem with Palantir’s partnership with government systems.
It is a conversation no one is having before the capability is reached.
That said, Palantir CEO Alex Karp appeared at the Reagan National Defense forum, and does a great job advocating for the U.S. to win the artificial intelligence race. Karp believes it is possible to insert “values” into the software at strategic places of connection, and thereby control the outputs. The question within the AI race then becomes, whose values? Ours or our enemies?
🚨 $PLTR CEO Dr. Alex Karp at the Reagan National Defense Forum 2024 thread!🧵🔮
“I probably shouldn’t say this, this is why I thought the democrats were going to lose the election, why they did, because people want to live in peace. They want to go home. They do not want to… pic.twitter.com/Q4j0hjlh7Y
In a series of video segments placed onto a Twitter Thread, you get a good sense for what Palantir, Karp, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk and newly appointed White House Czar of AI, David Sacks, are trying to do inside this global race toward artificial intelligence as applied to government systems.
“Palantir is the largest by market cap defense startup in the world. Many of the people in this room are former Palantirians. Basically, your future is powered by us. We were the most hated, most pariah, most disliked. We used to do meetings in the backyard of the backyard because you couldn’t be seen with Palantir.
“The DOGE… this is crucial stuff. We have to measure- what is it being spent on, what is the output. Is the input more than the output? The only thing that will cure a legitimacy crisis I s measurement. Anything else is a platitude.
“No one’s listening. Everyone’s thinking you have an agenda. Everyone thinks you’re working back from who you like. My favorite example of this are analysts on Wall Street. The whole methodology they have is just a way of telling you if they like you.
“In a legitimation crisis, you’ve got about 6 months… we need to prove there is no one who can stand up- we don’t have Ronald Reagan now.
$PLTR CEO Alex Karp at Reagan National Defense Forum on @elonmusk’s @DOGE and rips analysts🔮‼️
“Palantir is the largest by market cap defense startup in the world. Many of the people in this room are former Palantirians. We just did an announcement with @anduriltech. Basically,… pic.twitter.com/eMxD9YMd1G
. “The rubber meets the road for the West and you’re attacked and massacred, you have to fight, and you have to fight to win.
“My sometimes former party, you know it’s like- Israel’s done very well. My version is- that’s how you roll. Why don’t we learn from that? We don’t learn from it because we have way too many people in this culture who are living in the faculty lab of their own ideology.
“Business 101- what worked? We’re not allowed to learn from what worked because a lot of people are committed to an ideology that will not allow them to win. The American people notice that. A lot of this comes down to legitimation.
“We want to know that Americans are being put first. If you’re getting in the way of that, the American people are not happy.
🚨 $PLTR CEO Dr. Alex Karp at the Reagan National Defense Forum calls democrats his “former party” 👀 and speaks on Israel 🇮🇱🔮
“The rubber meets the road for the West and you’re attacked and massacred, you have to fight, and you have to fight to win🔥
“America is in the very beginning of a revolution that we own- the AI revolution. We own it. It should basically be called the “US AI revolution.”
“Every single relevant company in the world, is in this country. The second tier of those companies are in this country. The JV of these companies are in this country.
“There is no other place to do technology really at scale besides America. Europe has basically decided to regulate its basically anemic and nonexistent tech scene out of production. All of those people want to come to America. The American tech community is booming”
$PLTR CEO Dr. Alex Karp at the Reagan National Defense Forum🔮
"America is in the very beginning of a revolution that we own- the AI revolution. We own it. It should basically be called the "US AI revolution."🇺🇸
“These are very dangerous technologies. If we didn’t have the world’s worst enemies, I’d be up here saying we should regulate this, charge energy, slow this down. And we do have to have a conversation about who controls these technologies.
“People didn’t adopt American values because they thought inherently, they were superior, they adopted them because they worked.
“We have to win. We have to be ahead of our adversaries. We can’t have rules that are only for us and not for our China. Because then, we will get rules- their rules. And we will not like those rules.
These are going to be hard conversations. But do not forget, we need to win so we can dominate the conservations. Because we could lose.
$PLTR CEO Dr. Alex Karp at the Reagan National Defense Forum on AI fears🔮
"You can be happy we're asking this question, because the question they're asking in Europe is, "why is this not real."
“I suspect our GDP is going to grow in a very different way from our allies. That’s going to adjust a lot of perceptions about us, for good and bad.
“One of the things we’re going to end up having to do in Europe is- how do we do a tech transfer so that they can have GDP growth?
“Between ’61 – ’92, France’s GDP growth was significantly better than the US’. 85% of the top 50 companies by market cap are American. I would bet that’s going to be above 90% by this time next year.
“You can imagine America healthy and strong in 200 years… but you can’t really imagine that in a lot of other western cultures.
“Palantir… we reduce everything to the core principle.
$PLTR CEO Dr. Alex Karp at the Reagan National Defense Forum on American growth and player haters🇺🇸🔮
"I suspect our GDP is going to grow in a very different way from our allies. That's going to adjust a lot of perceptions about us, for good and bad.
“We have a splendor of riches in this country. We have the most successful builder looking at our institutions. Americans want to know that the institutions are efficient, safe, and correspond to their purpose.
“I’m sure there will be some rough patches, but I don’t know how you do better than Elon looking at these things. I’m pretty supportive.
$PLTR CEO Dr. Alex Karp at the Reagan National Defense Forum in huge support of @elonmusk and @DOGE‼️🔮
"We have a splendor of riches in this country. We have the most successful builder looking at our institutions. Americans want to know that the institutions are efficient,… pic.twitter.com/Og3jidkxyZ
“The difference between A+ in tech and B-, is the difference between a helicopter that flies, and doesn’t. This compounds into every area.
“For the sake of our country, I think we should expose policymakers to Maven. This stuff is determinative for life and death. It’s not a playtoy. It’s going to change everything. Just because the LLM on your desk kind of is, that’s like uranium in the ground. Processed correctly, it changes the world!
“We’re really really focused on the best of the best of the best of the best of the best in building things.
$PLTR CEO Dr. Alex Karp at the Reagan National Defense Forum on the gap between policy makers and Americans🔮
"The difference between A+ in tech and B-, is the difference between a helicopter that flies, and doesn't. This compounds into every area.
Dr Alex Karp also joined Liz Claman on Fox Business to talk software’s role in government efficiency: “Palantir exists to serve this nation. We need to know what’s working and what’s not… Software is enormously efficient. The underlying economics are ‘Both sides get more’… Transparency will not only be cheaper, the output will be better.”
.
Bottom Line: It is possible to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the risks and benefits to AI when combined with government surveillance interfaces (DHS) and government-controlled databases (NSA). It is possible to understand the risks and walk into the future with eyes wide open.
However, on the issue of how this makes the surveillance state far more likely, the conversation is not happening.
As Palantir CEO Alex Karp outlines repeatedly there are indeed great risks, and we need to have this conversation as a nation.
Posted originally on Dec 9, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
There is new turmoil during the final month of the Political Year from Hell emerging in Romania after the constitutional court annulled the presidential election. Calin Georgescu, who the media declared as a far-right extremist, won the election. The establishment cried “RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE!” and has refused to acknowledge the results.
Georgescu is a critic of NATO and the neocons. He does not support the ongoing war nor does he adhere to the Build Back Better agenda of the New World Order. President Klaus Iohannis released declassified documents ahead of the election that claim Russia interfered in the election by promoting the candidate on social media, TikTok in particular. The establishment also claimed Russia launched 85,000 cyber attacks that primarily targeted social media platforms.
How many nations have blamed Russia for interfering in their elections in recent years? More so, why do we allow them to continue perpetuating this lie when no concrete evidence has been found?
The press release called into question Article 146(f) of the Constitution states that elections must be legal. The courts had already demanded a recount of first votes, and now, the secondary election against Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union Party has been permanently canceled. The election cycle must now restart and the people’s wishes must be silenced.
Georgescu ran on a platform of ending Romania’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war and vowed to end all funding to Ukraine. He does not believe in climate change and does not want to decimate Romania’s energy industry to accommodate net zero emission goals. Georgescu also questioned the COVID narrative. All of his leading speaking points were anti-establishment, thus, the establishment ensured he could not take office.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I first want to thank you for your forecast on South Korea, which you delivered here in Asia. I understand this is the computer. Others would call you a seer. I wonder if you have time to update that forecast since we are as divided here in South Korea as you write about the United States.
Thank you for your courage and consideration.
YM
ANSWER: The Economic Confidence Model for South Korea shows that we are headed toward the next turning point on March 3rd, 2025. South Korea may still head into a major turning point in 2029. We are ABOVE the Yearly Bullish Reversals I gave back at the Thailand conference, and this will be the first time we will be in a position to elect it for the year-end. We can see that this currency has broken out above the downtrend line for the last three years.
For those who do not understand the Korean constitution, most parliamentary systems and even the US Constitution allow the head of state to disband Parliament/Congress and recall them. In Korea, the constitution omitted that authority. Thus, the deeply divided political system was in gridlock, and Yoon declared martial law around 10:30 p.m. local time on Tuesday in an unannounced late-night TV address. He accused the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and of “anti-state” activities.
He also cited a motion by the opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in parliament, to impeach top prosecutors and reject a government budget proposal. Yoon chose martial law, which lacked any other legal way to break the deadlock. He probably assumed that he had more support than he actually did. Yoon’s move to impose martial law earlier this week for the first time since 1980 was rejected by angry opposition lawmakers, who are planning an impeachment vote against Yoon on Saturday.
1923Array
When we look at the Monthly Array from 2023, we can see that the major turning point would be April 2024, which the computer was projecting from November 2023. The April 10th, 2024 election when all 300 members of the National Assembly were elected, 254 from first-past-the-post constituencies and 46 from proportional party lists. The two largest parties, the Liberal Democratic Party and the conservative People Power Party, once again set up satellite parties to take advantage of the electoral system.
The election served as a “mid-term evaluation” for President Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration, nearing its third year. The question became could the ruling party surpass the constraints of the ruling coalition, which did not secure a majority in the previous general election? The election saw opposition parties, primarily the Democratic Party, retain their majority in the National Assembly. We can see the numerous Directional Changes thereafter ensured a divided political state.
1924 Array
This brought us to December, with a Directional Change followed by January. Then, we have a Panic Cycle in March. This gets even more complicated for as one reader points out, according to data from the Defense Manpower Data Center, South Korea has the third highest number of active U.S. troops deployed of any country outside of the contiguous U.S., at over 23,000 personnel compared to Japan (52,852) and Germany (34,894). In total, as of June 2024, the US DOD has 165,830 active personnel overseas.
When we look at North Korea, this current 8.6-year wave turned up in January 2023. We must be mindful that the next key target for confrontation will be March 25th, 2024. The turning points within this 8.6-year wave are as follows:
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 