Why Governments are Like an Ameba


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You may be called the legend because of your forecasts on so many levels, but it might also be because you have met with more governments than probably any economist or analyst. My question is simple. From your experience, do you believe you can prevent the economic carnage that is becoming so obvious to everyone except those in government?

SK

ANSWER: The idealistic belief in intelligence and goodness embedded within human beings is increasingly confronted with the harsh experiences of reality. We all indeed act in our own self-interest or we would take no action (Smith’s Invisible Hand). Even an ameba, which lacks consciousness as we define it being self-aware, still responds to its surrounding and engulfs its prey to survive. It responds due to its hardwired nature. Unfortunately, humans also possess at that inner level this same survival instinct that is hardwired. This makes it increasingly unlikely that willingness to change gains sufficient strength in time for the abyss to be reached. Hence, we must crash and burn.

Because the government will respond in the same manner as an ameba, there is no hope that they will spontaneously look in the mirror and reach an OMG moment of realizing that they are causing the demise of our society. Consequently, they will consume our liberty until they push it to the point that society will then act only in its self-interest to survive. Historically, all governments collapse once they have consumed rights, liberty, and privileges in their desire to maintain control and in the end, die by their own greed for power. They lack any consciousness of what they are doing precisely as an ameba. There is no reasoning for there is no one single mind to reason with.

Therefore, neither I nor anyone else, possess the power to prevent the cycle from unfolding. The very best I can hope for is perhaps to influence the reconstruction

Snow in the Sahara Desert – 3rd Time in 37 years


Last year, the snow appeared in Spain wiping out the crops and causing rationing of vegetables. This year the snow went down even further and crossed into Algeria covering the desert. So while the Global Warming people are desperate to explain weather as caused by humans, we are ignoring the cycle of the sun which has caused ice ages and warming periods long before 1850. As the Dail Mail has reported, that up to 16 inches of snow has fallen on the Sahara desert. This is the third time in 37 years (8.6 x 4.3) that Algeria has even seen snow cover the desert. This is perfectly aligned with the 8.6-year cycle for the region.

It appears to be right on schedule since Socrates is pointing to a rise in food prices by the time we move into the peak of the next Economic Confidence Model 8.6-year wave – 2024.35. The satellite images from NASA show what took place. This is not just a small storm. Europe has been hit with the cold stretching down to the extremes where they have relied upon food during the winter season.

As we move into these last two wave formations, we will also have climate change on top of sovereign debt and pension crisis. It is reaching the point that whatever can go wrong, seems to be lining up.

Extreme Volatility in Weather – Part of Climate Change?


QUESTION: It is crazy hot here in Sydney the exact opposite of the extreme cold in the north. Is there an explanation at all for this?

ANSWER:  Most people do not realize that the climate is actually “polar opposites.” Both the Arctic (North Pole) and the Antarctic (South Pole) are cold because they don’t get any direct sunlight.  However, though the North Pole and the South Pole are “polar opposites,” they both get the same amount of sunlight but there is a major difference. The South Pole is a much colder than the North Pole and this also contributes to the difference in climate experience around the globe.

The Arctic is ocean surrounded by land whereas the Antarctic in the South is in fact land surrounded by ocean. Consequently, the ocean under the Arctic ice is cold, yet the water is still warmer than the ice! So the ocean warms the air which it cannot do in the South. Antarctica is dry despite the ice. Under the ice and snow, you find land with mountain ranges, not ocean. As with any mountain range, the higher you go, the colder it gets. The actual average elevation of Antarctica is about 7,500 feet (2.3 km).

The extreme heat in Australian, reached 47c (116f), is more akin to the Middle East in summer. I went trekking through the valley of the Kings in Egypt when it was 50c (122f) and I was the only one out and about while everyone stayed in the hotel. As the energy output of the sun collapses, we will witness growing extremes in different regions. The last time it was this hot in Sydney goes back to the 1930s during the Dust Bowl people in the USA. The cycle in extremes appears to be 86 years so this is on target. Australia is dry and ripe for wildfires the same as we see in California. This will contribute to the decline in food supply globally.

Climate Change – As if it was Supposed to Change


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your computer has proven it can forecast markets, economies, the rise and fall of governments, war, and now even weather well in advance of anyone else. Is this bitter cold just a taste of what is to come? If so, I definitely think it is time to follow you south before you can’t sell a house up here when interest rates also start to rise. Working in a bank, I know all too well as soon as there is any trouble, the lending stops. I suppose that is what you are warning about with your real estate forecasts as well.

FH

ANSWER: Unfortunately, this is the beginning of the decline. It will get worse. We are looking at a progressive period of colder weather for the first 13 years following 2015. There should be some oscillation and if there are any warm winters compared to this one, this will be an extension of the decline at least into 2032 with the more likely target off into 2045-2047. By the time this is finished, you will be willing to taxes to get global warming. The sad part of this whole mess is that the Global Warming crowd, while they are rolling around in their bed of cash rejoicing how much they made on this scam, they have led many people to their death by distracting people from the real fury of nature.

Extreme cold has reached from New England to the Midwest and down to the Carolinas, with temperatures dropping below zero. It has been in the 40s here at night in the Tampa region and it snowed a little in Tallahassee. The fatalities associated with the harsh conditions will continue to rise from drivers sliding off an icy road to the rise in disease. This will be a very dangerous rise in economic declines as well as temperature plummet during the winters ahead. It is so cold, any kind of exposed skin can freeze in a couple of minutes.” It was so cold, the attendance for New York City’s Times Square on New Year’s Eve was sharply lower.

I have written about this in the Mayan Report which I have called the clash between catastrophe and uniformity. There are simply people who want to believe that everything is uniform and tomorrow will be the same as today. Then there is the group of scientists who believe in cycles and understand that there is a natural rhythm to everything. In 1832, Professor Albrecht Reinhard Bernhardi (1797–1849) argued that the North Polar ice cap had extended into the plains of Germany. To support this theory, he pointed to the existence of huge boulders that have become known as “erratics” he suggested were pushed by the advancing ice. This was a shocking theory for it was certainly a nonlinear view of natural history. Bernhardi was thinking out of the box. The theory of climate change began to take shape. It had all began with the discovery of in 1772 near Vilui, Siberia of an intact frozen woolly rhinoceros followed by the more famous discovery of a frozen mammoth in 1787. You may be shocked, but these discoveries of frozen animals with grass still in their stomach, set in motion these two schools of thought of catastrophe and uniformity since the evidence implied you could be eating lunch and suddenly find yourself frozen to be discovered by posterity. It was this discovery that sparked the investigation into cycles which led to Haley’s Comet, the realization it was the same comet on a cycle, to Charles Darwin’s (1809-1882) Theory of Evolution, which was also inspired by climate change that led to the survival of the fittest proposition. (see Mayan Report).

 

Ukraine & the Next Revolution


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I want to thank you for defending the Ukrainian people in their quest to overthrow the government corruption. You are a great inspiration here in Kiev. What does your model show for the success of our revolution looking ahead?

PN

ANSWER:  There are many in the West who know nothing of Ukraine and simply attribute the revolution to the CIA. I understand the disillusionment in Ukraine about these pretend analysts. They pontificate CIA and ignore that there was a real uprising of the people. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine endured years of corruption, mismanagement, lack of economic growth, currency devaluation, and problems in securing funding from public markets. The corruption became widespread and Yanukovich’s sons were engaged in a protection racket preventing people from going into small business. There is no other evidence of how the Ukrainian people have suffered under political corruption that has not really changed. Yanukovich was removed, but those under him are still in power and just changed their stripes. The corrupt politicians did not realize that when the government tried to arrest Mikheil Saakashvili, the ex-Georgian leader-turned Ukrainian opposition politician, the people would rally and rescue him from the police wagon freeing him. The accusations that he plotted to overthrow the government is on par with the corruption. I have a friend who lives close to him. He stood on the roof preaching to the people as the police tried to grab him. It was a real spectacle of corruption.

They have also accused Saakashvili of accepting funding from an exiled Ukrainian businessman in a bid to seize power, which he denies. Thousands of people even gathered outside the courthouse after an almost-eight-hour hearing where the government tried to use the criminal process to eliminate an opposition leader. This is standard in politics and we see the Democrats in the USA trying the same tactics to Impeach Trump. The people are against demanding the impeachment of President Petro Poroshenko trying to stamp out corruption once again in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Revolutions Have Been:

Khmelnytsky Uprising (1648–57)
Ukraine after the Russian Revolution
Ukrainian War of Independence (1917–21)
Declaration of Ukrainian State Act (1941)
Declaration of Independence of Ukraine (1991)
Orange Revolution (2004–05)
Euromaidan (2013–Present)/2014 Ukrainian revolution

This has demonstrated a close correlation with a 52-year cycle aligning with the Economic Confidence Model of 51.6-years. This appears to be on schedule for a rise in tensions again here in 2018, but the peak is most likely coming into play in 2022

Will England Break-Up Not Just the United Kingdom


QUESTION: Hi Martin.

In your recent blog posts, you talk about the possible timing of the break up of Britain but you talk about that in terms of the regionalisation or break up of England only. Have you not said before that Scotland is likely to become independent sometime in the next few years? Perhaps you could explain how that possibility fits in this process?

Thanks

CGB

ANSWER: There are two expansions on the island of Britain. The more commonly known is the formation of the United Kington which took place in 1707 under Queen Ann. That saw Scotland under English Rule and the birth of the United Kingdom. However, before the reign of Eadgar (959-975 AD), England was divided into Anglo-Saxon kingdoms. It was Eadgar who instituted a uniform coinage throughout the land and a single government. While Eadgar set the pattern for the ‘reformed’ coinage of the later Anglo-Saxon and Norman period and standardized the use of the king’s portrait as in old Roman tradition, it was all about creating BRITAIN as a nation-state.

If we look back in time, we see that the first Anglo-Saxon kingdom to really become powerful was Mercia. It was the King of Mercia who was the one who actually resurrected the old Roman Empire’s monetary system for all of Europe since the French copied his idea. We see that King Offa of Mercia was the first king to put the portrait of himself and his wife on the coinage as was the tradition in the Roman Empire.

Here is the Roman Emperor Claudius who married Agrippina, Jr. in 49AD. You will find throughout the history of Roman coinage, the Roman family of the emperor was traditionally portrayed on the coinage. Constantine the Great even issued coins with the portrait of his mother. Trajan issued coins depicting his father and Septimus Severus issued coins showing his wife and two sons.

The Romans placed great value on family. This is where the idea of virginity of their women was proposed and to be a woman priestesses of the Roman goddess of the hearth, Vesta, in the state religion of ancient Rome, they must be virgins known as Vestal Virgins( Latin: Vestales).

Evidence of the power of Mercia lies in the coinage of Offa who adopted the Roman culture. It was Offa who actually issued the first gold coin after the fall of Rome in Europe. He was copying the Islamic gold coin for trade demonstrating his contacts beyond Britain. He inscribed his name on the Islamic imitation coinage but obviously could not read what the Islamic legends actually said. This gold issue is extremely rare.

Therefore, we have two historic break-ups that Britain faces in the future. Eventually, the United Kingdom will break apart formally, but with the collapse of Brussels and the EU Project, we are also likely to then see AFTER 2032, the general trend toward decentralization of governments as a whole. Hence, we will see England break apart into the old Anglo-Saxon regions as we will see the United States break apart. This is the cycle of dissolution politically against centralized government, which is why the Communist experiment also collapsed. Then you begin again and reform nation-states in the next major cycle wave. Society comes together for economic efficiency, and then government abuses its power, which in turn then results in the cycle of dissolution and it all begins once again.

The Technology Advance in War will Increase Civilian Casualties


COMMENT: Marty. Hi.

In your article, you stated that when the unemployment goes up, they take us to war to cut down the population. True but now its different.

WW2 was a big historical change in who gets killed. WW1 and previous wars typically it was the soldiers who die. WW1 only saw about 5% > fewer civilians die. Once we got to WW2 we saw 80% of the deaths were civilians. Ever since then, mostly civilians die in wars now.

It was the technology shift that has brought about this.

So now, Kim and Trump push some buttons and millions of civilians die.

OK. Been cold up here. Getting down to -13° this weekend. And were on the warm side of the lake Lol.

N

REPLY: You are correct. The impact of war is much different today. The civilian casualties will be much greater than in previous wars. That’s technology for you. Keep warm. It is even snowing as far south as Tallahassee. This is one forecast I wish would be wrong.

Is BREXIT in Trouble? Can Britain Survive Past 2042-2044?



The REMAIN crowd is doing everything possible to surrender the sovereignty, dignity, and future of Britain. The left is taking hold in Britain calling anyone who wants to leave the EU is now openly called a “racist” and they are bashing anyone who even appears to be nationalist.

While the British pound closed 2017 at 13501, it finished the year in a long-term bearish position. We now have politicians rebellion and saying that the question was too complicated for the average person to understand and so the referendum should be put aside. This is keeping in line with the anti-Democratic policy adopted in the EU to deny the people the right to vote on the European Project – the surrender of all sovereignty to Brussels.

Unfortunately, our model has not indicated any change in the long-term trend. The Euro still closed in a bullish position relative to the cross with the pound sterling. Support lies at 88120 for 2018 on Euro/Sterling. We elected a Yearly Bullish Reversal back for the close of 2016 and that has dominated the trend as 2017 closed high with an inside trading year.

The posture, overall, shows that this remains in a questionable position. The early election called by PM May was a disaster and has opened the door for the REMAIN crowd to overthrow the vote by painting anyone for BREXIT as a racist and we now hear the politicians saying that Parliament should decide and not the people. If they succeed in this movement, we seem to be on schedule for the complete collapse of Britain come 2044 where it too will split up into regions as it had begun.

 

During the reign of Eadgar (959-975 AD), England was united under one ruler. It was Eadgar who instituted a uniform coinage throughout the land. Eadgar set the pattern for the ‘reformed’ coinage of the later Anglo-Saxon and Norman period and standardized the use of the king’s portrait as in old Roman tradition.

Here too, we are reaching 21 cycles of the ECM 51.6-years from the reign of Eadgar, which also confirms independently 2042-2044 the likelihood of England breaking apart back toward the regions that were united by Eadgar will be the fate of Britain.

Climate Change – Is the an OMG Event?


1709 Deep Freeze

 

QUESTION: Is it in your view a minor cold blip or “OMG we’re all going to freeze to death and run out of food ?”

BR

ANSWER: We are looking at an unbelievable decline in the energy output of the sun which appears to be the most rapid decline in nearly 10,000 years. The Global Warming crowd may be setting society up for mass famine and death because they are deliberately point everyone in the opposite direction to get their portion of the $1 billion grants. Natural disasters are the most disastrous when the energy output of the sun declines. There has been a fatal interaction of ecological, agricultural, economic, and political factors that seem to be setting the stage for at least a repeat of what is known as the Great Famine of 1315-1317. The Great Famine started with bad weather in spring 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer harvest in 1317, and Europe did not fully recover until 1322. The period was marked by extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death and even cannibalism and infanticide. The crisis set in motion the great economic collapse that began during the fourteenth century. In our arrogance, we seem to believe we have conquered every aspect of the planet and many argue we can even alter the climate of the planet.

The collapse from the Medieval Warm period was rapid, but also deadly. When the climate turned down, what followed was suddenly bitter cold winters and drenching rains which then froze. Europe had expanded as society always does in warm periods. Study have shown that desert rodent populations of many species tend to “fluctuate synchronously owing to pulses of primary production and seed availability during rainy years, and reduced seed production during droughts” (PLOS 2013).

BlackDeath-10

I have reported that plagues correlate to the decline in temperature. During the 14th century, there were warnings in the form of rumors that told of a great plague in China and India that killed most of the populations there. The plague made its way to Europe when the Kipchak forces were besieging the Genoese trading post in the Crimea (Ukraine). The Kipchaks began to catapult plague-infested corpses over the walls and into the trading post. The disease spread quickly and the Genoese abandoned the outpost. They sailed back to Europe stopping in Sicily in 1347 taking the Black Death with them.

Four centuries of global warming left Europe with mild temperatures, which were the highest in 8,000 years. This led to the great economic expansion and the rebirth of trade and the economy. In fact, gold began to reappear in the coinage after about 600 years. This was the Great Medieval Warming period that marked the rebirth of civilization following the fall of the Roman Empire. The European continent’s farmers expanded agriculture and planted crops on vast quantities of land previously unsuitable for agriculture. This led to the increased food supply which, like desert rodents, fueled a population explosion that tripled the number of people in medieval Europe.

First we have the sharp decline in weather. This resulted in those marginal lands that had been cultivated ceasing to produce crops as frosts and floods dominated the climate. Millions of extra mouths had to be fed and many died from the famine. Rebellions and civil wars emerged and this in turn exacerbated the  crisis. Then the terrible weather turned deadly and the first disease began to appear int the livestock. Two consecutive harvest failures in 1314 and 1315 launched seven years of famine, resulting in the deaths of between 5% and 12% of the population of northern Europe.

Yes, there have been famines caused by mankind. The worst in history remains that which occurred during the 20th century. This was the Russian famine created by Communism. Stalin’s forced collectivization program starved to death some 5 million Russians. Stalin took the food from Ukraine for Russia resulting in another 8 million Ukrainian deaths. Some 25 million Chinese died of hunger as a consequence of Mao’s Great Leap Forward, which also completely failed when bureaucrats try to run things from a central government perspective. Both of these modern famines were the result of Socialism/Communism taking the control away from the individual and handing it to bureaucrats in the central office.

My concern here is the correlations of pandemics to the decline in the energy output of the sun. That decline from the Medieval Warming Period set in motion what many call the Little Ice Age. Even after the extreme low, Europe is rapidly turning colder much faster than expected in what we would call technically a retest of the lows. That sharp decline was a real global cooling period for Europe known as the Deep Freeze of 1709. In the first few months of 1709 remained in a deep freeze that again wiped out food supplies. People were ice-skating on the canals of Venice, which against was highly unusual to see such cold that far south on the water. People could cross the Baltic Sea on horseback because it was completely frozen! You could not ring a church bell because it would shatter it was that cold.

Therefore, to answer the question do we face an OMG event with famine? The answer is yes! The worst of this may come during the 2020-2024 period. I have reported that it appears the next 8.6-year wave on the ECM appears to be setting up for a rally in commodities. That will include food.

Tugboats Need Rescue in NYC


This winter is very cold. It has even gone down to the 40s at night in Northern Florida. There is a mad rush to run out and buy coats down here. Meanwhile, in the LaLa-Land of corruption, New York City, the ice in the Hudson River keeps getting thicker. Historians had remarked that as the rivers in Europe froze solid, this allowed the barbarians to invade Rome. Perhaps those in New Jersey should sleep with one eye open that the hoards from Manhattan don’t invade looking for trinkets and food.

This ice is gett so think in the Hudson River that even the tugboats have to be rescued. As the ice is getting thicker, most boats just cannot handle this freeze.