Monthly Archives: August 2018

Aug 18 2018

Ho-Lee-Cats: Freight Haulers Order 450,000 New MAGAnomic Big Rigs in 2018 – Backlog for Delivery Extends into 2019….


Re-Posted from The Conservative tree House on August 17, 2018 by

Freight hauling trucks are like the lymphatic system within a healthy economy.  As the economy writ large needs to move stuff around, it’s the truckers who git-r-done; and no time in U.S. economic history has there been such a demand for haulers.

In a stunning Wall Street Journal Report they note Analyst group ACT Research says manufacturers are on track for 450,000 orders for heavy-duty trucks this year, easily breaking a 14-year-old record. In July alone, North American fleets ordered more than 52,000 trucks, the largest order in history.   Whoot, Whoot !!

(Via WSJ) An unprecedented run of orders for big rigs has pushed the backlog at truck factories to nine months, according to industry analysts, the largest since early 2006, when truckers stocked up to get vehicles in place before tougher environmental restrictions would take effect. Typically the backlog is about five months for the truck industry’s manufacturers, analysts said.

“It is longer than it should be,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of marketing for Volvo AB’s North America operation, where Class 8 truck orders this year soared to 25,000 from 11,000 during the first six months of 2017. “Of course we are not alone in this situation,” he said. “Everyone is in the same boat.”

North American freight-haulers ordered more than 300,000 Class 8 trucks in the first seven months of this year and are on track to order a record 450,000 of the heavy-duty vehicles for the full year, according to ACT Research. That would be the largest book since 2004, when orders reached 390,000, according to analysts.

[…] Freight-hauling fleets are trying to keep up with swelling demand in a robust U.S. economy even as they say they face difficulty finding drivers. New trucks are one recruiting tool, and the new vehicles also get better fuel mileage—an attractive feature for fleets as other costs are rising. (read more)

Fleet companies making this scale of an investment is one of the more visible performance indicators that we haven’t seen anything yet.  The Main Street economy is only just beginning to get started.   This is the beginning, of the beginning, of the most massive middle-class economic expansion in the history of our United States.

This KPI also aligns with the sector seeing the largest initial wage and benefit increases:

  (More Data)

Aug 18 2018

Will Inflation Return to the Eurozone?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Aug 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

There are three distinct types of inflation – Demand, Asset & Currency. The major type of inflation that everyone assumes is DEMAND. This unfolds when there is actually an economic boom and people have confidence in the economy. Asset Inflation is when there is no real demand from the consumer but the asset values rise primarily from foreign investment. This is normally witnessed in real estate, stocks, and bonds. There is a subdivision of Asset Inflation that is concentrated to a single area such a food that is driven by a collapse in supply due to perhaps a drought or flooding. The third type is Currency Inflation. This is when the actual nominal value of assets do not change, but the currency fluctuation will attract or detract foreign investors because of the large fluctuation in the value of the currency on world markets.

During the 1970s, I always bought German cars. A Porsche in 1970 was about $12,000 and by 1980 it was $50,000. The rise was really created by the decline in the dollar which created the perception that German cars would so well built, they would appreciate. I would drive one for 2-years and sell it used for a profit. This was the net result of CURRENCY INFLATION. As the Euro declines, we will see inflation in the Eurozone rise sharply. The ECB will proclaim victory after 10 years, but this has nothing to do with Quantitative Easing.

Aug 18 2018

Turkey & the Erdogan Who Puts Himself Before His People


Armstrong Economics Blog/Turkey

Re-Posted Aug 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Erdogan refuses to release the American “Pastor Brunson” and instead he is turning to everyone else offering now to open direct investment in Turkey. This is not simply about Brunson. Erdogan has refused to comply with the USA measures against Iran and has stated it will continue to import Iranian oil. Erdogan has NEVER been someone anyone can trust. Previously, Erdogan was secretly laundering money for Iran selling gold into the market to allow them to circumvent sanctions. There is nothing that Erdogan agrees with that he will not take the opposite position behind closed doors. He arrested more than 50,000 political opponents and that is really what you do when you violate human rights that the West turned a bling-eye to. He blackmailed the EU into paying him $3 billion on the refugee issue or he would allow them to flood Europe. So there is a lot more than simply an American missionary. Yet even on this simple issue, Erdogan refuses to yield. What he has done among nations and to the Kurds has been far worse than Saddam Hussein.

The Turkish Minister of Finance Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law, is trying to assure foreign investors that he will implement strict fiscal discipline and structural reforms. He has come up with a new slogan saying that Turkey will “emerge even stronger” from the crisis. There are almost 4,000 investors in Turkey who have lost a fortune based on the currency alone. He has effectively engaged in currency controls by turning to a boycott of all US products.

Erdogan is now giving priority to direct investment whereby he will sell assets. He has excluded a request for assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) because he knows he would not get it anyway. We may yet see him turn to capital controls in order to deal with the currency crisis and prevent his own people from buying foreign currency. He and his son-in-law claim that they will give priority to the fight against inflation and fiscal discipline. However, this CANNOT be done with stricter fiscal discipline and structural reforms. Erdogan would have to curtail his military spending and that would also undermine his dream of restoring Turkey to the dominant power in the Middle East.

Erdogan’ son-in-law recently announced new major government projects. Clearly, those spending projects have to be stopped, but there has been no mention of that reality. Instead, Erdogan is increasingly seeking contact with new allies. While the Emir of Qatar pledged $ 15 billion in investment in Turkey, he also turned to France’s President Emmanuel Macron. Erdogan and Macron have agreed that Albayrak would speak as soon as possible with his French colleague Bruno Le Maire and he has also reached out to Germany. Erdogan had phoned Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday and agreed to talk with Scholz.

What Erdogan fails to see is that the collapse in the currency is not simply black and white numbers. This is a collapse in confidence in him personally. His refusal to release Pastor Brunson and claim that he was connected even indirectly with the coup demonstrates his personal vindictiveness. Nobody believes that anyone could ever receive a fair trial in a land that is run by a supreme leader with whom you take your life in your hands if you just disagree with him.

Even back in 2011, Erdogan told Turks who lived in Germany that they still owe their allegiance to Turkey. He told Turks who had moved to Germany decades ago that they were part of Germany, but they were still part of Turkey. This is just shy of what Charles DeGaulle did in Quebec in Canada back in 1967 – “Vive le Québec libre!”. It was his vision that Quebec should separate from Canada and become a French State. Erdogan even summoned the German ambassador back in 2016 and demanded a German satire program that made a joke out of him should be removed from the Internet. The Turkish author Aslı Erdoğan was jailed and accused of links to terrorists as well as being a member of the terrorist organization the government labeled PKK. She has not been allowed to leave the country. Nobody believes that anyone would ever get a fair trial in Turkey under Erdogan. He walks like a dictator, talks like a dictator, acts like a dictator because he is a ruthless dictator

Aug 17 2018

BLS Report: Productivity Increases 2.9% in Second Quarter…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 17, 2018 by

Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.

If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time.  Your productivity measured in the last four loaves is higher.

Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation.  Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.

From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%.  However, in the second quarter of 2018 productivity jumped to 2.9%.  That means total business output increased significantly as more product was demanded from within the business operation.  Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.

Improved gains in efficiency/productivity (more bread needed) supports faster economic growth without generating higher inflation; no need to raise prices because your cost to make each loaf of bread decreases the more you make.  Higher sales and lower per unit cost means more profit for the bread-maker.  No need to raise prices.  Without inflation, there’s no motive for the Fed to raise interest-rates.

Increases in productivity generally means the economy is generating more stuff.  The more stuff generated the higher the value of all economic activity; this increases GDP growth.

When we see higher productivity in direct alignment with GDP increases, the increased production indicates sustainable GDP growth.

BLS Report: “Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9 percent during the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.8 percent and hours worked increased 1.9 percent.” (link)

We made 4.8 percent more stuff, and only worked 1.9 percent longer.  The net is a 2.9 percent productivity increase.

.

Aug 17 2018

MAGAnomic Status Report…


RE-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 17, 2018 by
.

The future’s so bright…

…he’s gotta wear shades!

Aug 17 2018

THE RANGER WAY VERSES THE GREEN BERET (SF) WAY


The Army Chief of Staff was recently asked by the President to form an elite counter-terrorist unit. The General went to his Sergeant Major, who was both Ranger and Special Forces qualified, and asked him which organization he would recommend to form this new counter-terrorist unit. The Sergeant Major thought about this for a few minutes and then responded to the Generals question with this parable:

SITUATION

Sir, if there were a hijacked Delta 747 being held by international terrorists along with its passengers and crew, and a counter-terrorists unit formed either by the Rangers or Special Forces were given the rescue/recovery mission, this is what you could expect to happen:

 

RANGER OPERATION

Forces/Equipment Committed: If the Rangers went in, they would send a single Ranger Company of 120 men with standard U.S. Army issue equipment.

Mission Preparation: The Ranger company first sergeant would conduct a haircut, uniform and boots inspection.

Infiltration Technique: They would insist on double-timing, in company formation, wearing their full combat equipment, and singing Jody cadence all the way to the site of the hijacked aircraft.

Actions in the Objective Area: Once they arrive, the Ranger Company would establish their objective rally point, put out security elements, conduct a leader’s recon, reapply their face camouflage, and then conduct final preparations for actions on the objective.

Results of Operation: The rescue/recovery operation would be completed within the hour, all of the terrorists and most of the passengers would have been killed in the ensuing intense firefight, the Rangers would have sustained light casualties and the Delta 747 would be worthless to anyone except a scrap dealer.

SPECIAL FORCES OPTION

Forces/Equipment Committed: If Special Forces went in, they would only send a 12 man team, (all SF units are divisible by 12 for some arcane historical reason), and however, due to the exotic nature of their equipment the SF team would cost the same amount to deploy as the Ranger Company.

Mission Preparation: The SF team sergeant would request relaxed grooming standards (long hair, and beards) for the team and uniforms would not be required.

Infiltration Technique: The team would insist on separate travel orders with max per diem, and each would get to the site of the hijacking by his own means. At least one-third of the team would insist on jumping in.

Actions in the Objective Area: Once they arrive, the SF team would cache their military uniforms, establish a team room, and use their illegal team fund to stock the unauthorized team room bar, check out the situation by talking to the locals, and have a team meeting to discuss the merits of the terrorist’s cause.

Results of Operation: The rescue/recovery operation would take two weeks to complete and by that time all of the terrorists would have been killed (and all would have signed confessions), most of the passengers would be ruined psychologically for the remainder of their lives, and all of the women passengers would be pregnant. The Delta 747 would be essentially be unharmed, the team would have taken no casualties, but, would have used up, lost, or stolen all the highly expensive exotic equipment issued to them.

Aug 17 2018

Co-Conspiring “Media Coalition” Sue For Names, Addresses of Manafort Trial Jurors – Judge Ellis Refuses, No Verdict Reached…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 17, 2018 by

The media institutions that are the central players in advancement of the two-year-long corrupt scheme against candidate Trump, now President Trump, all listed themselves as a “Media Coalition” on court documents demanding the names and addresses of the Manafort Jury:

Fortunately, Judge T.S. Ellis denied the motion by the media.

Shortly before 3:00pm this afternoon Judge Ellis said he personally had received threats and would keep the names of jurors a secret for their safety despite the media demand their names be made public.

The judge is being protected full time by the U.S. Marshals and shared with the court: “I won’t tell you what threats I’ve received,” he said, “but I have the Marshals’ protection. Where I go, they go. I had no idea this case would excite these emotions,” the judge said.

Ellis also said that he would ultimately unseal everything from the trial except for the jurors’ names and the transcript of a sidebar conference with lawyers that he said was related to Mueller’s broader investigation.

There is some insightful speculation, based on a history of media complicity within the larger storyline, that the media already have a juror contact (perhaps paid) and were seeking the names and addresses as cover for their reporting from their juror source. Given the media conduct in the larger two-year dynamic; and considering they have attached themselves to the inherent risk of sunlight; we cannot dismiss this possibility.

The media are enmeshed within the story of the DOJ and FBI corruption. However, only recently did we discover the media engagements were not just pervasive, they were/are participatory.  As a consequence the same media cannot reasonably report on any aspect of the story without exposing their own duplicity; their only choice is to double down on lies they helped create and promote.

Michael Isikoff highlighted a point in February when he admitted his reporting was being used by the DOJ and FBI to advance a political objective. Additionally, FBI investigator Peter Strzok and FBI attorney Lisa Page were shown in their text messages to be leaking stories from the Clinton Investigation, the Trump investigation and the Mueller investigation to journalists at Politico, The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post. –SEE HERE–

FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe was busted by the Inspector General for leaking stories to the media and then lying about it to INSD and IG investigators. FBI Director James Comey admitted to leaking stories to the New York Times, and even hired his friend Andrew Richman (off-the-books), gave him access to FBI and NSA databases, and then leaked information to Richman along with another friend Benjamin Wittes at Lawfare blog.

Lest we forget, the IG report on how the FBI handled the Clinton investigation revealed that dozens of FBI officials were actually taking bribes from the media for information:

IG REPORT – We identified numerous FBI employees, at all levels of the organization and with no official reason to be in contact with the media, who were nevertheless in frequent contact with reporters. Attached to this report as Attachments E and F are two link charts that reflect the volume of communications that we identified between FBI employees and media representatives in April/May and October 2016. We have profound concerns about the volume and extent of unauthorized media contacts by FBI personnel that we have uncovered during our review.

[…] We do not believe the problem is with the FBI’s policy, which we found to be clear and unambiguous. Rather, we concluded that these leaks highlight the need to change what appears to be a cultural attitude among many in the organization. (link to pdf – page Xii of executive summary)

Madness.

This is an IG fact-based criticism of the institution of the FBI, not simply a few rogue officials within it.

But wait…. Perspective:

More recently it was revealed that Andrew Weissman, Robert Mueller’s #1 special counsel prosecutor, was coordinating investigative efforts with the full support of four AP reporters who were giving Weissman information to use in his court filings and search warrants.

Nuts; simply, well, nuts.

(Source Link – pdf Page #5)

Additionally, Christopher Steele has stated in U.K. court records the person in charge of the Clinton Campaign’s opposition research firm, Glenn Simpson from Fusion GPS, arranged and coordinated for Mr. Steele to talk to several journalists (CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Yahoo News and Mother Jones) while Mr. Steele was also the primary source of information for the FBI investigators (including Strzok and Page):

(Source – page #8)

Make sure you read that full response from Christopher Steele above to see the scope of the media engagements he was conducting.

As more evidence surfaces the relationship between journalists, Fusion-GPS, Chris Steele and the media’s DOJ/FBI sources begins blending together. The FBI was using media reports, which were based on Fusion-GPS pitches, to bolster its investigative documents to the FISA court. It is an intelligence laundry operation:

According to the U.K records, Christopher Steele reports this September 2016 meeting with Isikoff was arranged by Glenn Simpson. According to Michael Isikoff on his February podcast, he met Christopher Steele at a Washington, D.C. hotel in Sept. 2016. They were joined by his “old friend” Glenn Simpson, the founder of opposition research firm Fusion GPS, who Isikoff now defines as a “private investigator.”

So Christopher Steele was meeting with journalists, the journalists were writing articles; the FBI was leaking to media and simultaneously citing those same articles as underlying evidence to support their counterintelligence investigations; and all of this was used to validate the investigative documents the FBI was receiving from Christopher Steele; who, along with the leaking FBI officials, was also the source of the media articles.

FUBAR! This is exponentially bonkers.

This is a circle of information, all coming from Glenn Simpson, Nellie Ohr and Christopher Steele at Fusion GPS, through Bruce Ohr at DOJ into the FBI via Peter Strzok.

Fusion GPS was the opposition research firm being financed by Hillary Clinton, along with FBI officials who were using their own strategic media leaks to authenticate/validate their own investigation.

Think about the scale of the reporting, and reporting on reporting, of anonymous leaks, false leaks, lies from “people with knowledge of the matter”, “government officials involved in the matter”, “people familiar with the matter”, “government sources” etc. all going in one unified and semi-coordinated direction – against the aggregate Trump administration.

Now, it actually gets even more convoluted.

Christopher Steele has sworn under oath that he met with multiple journalists (at least eight organizations) in September, mid-October, and late-October 2016: “at Fusion’s instruction“. (pdf page #7)

Overlay upon that sworn admission with what Glenn Simpson (Fusion-GPS) told the House Intelligence Committee while also under oath about his involvement in sharing information derived from Christopher Steele:

(Testimony – pdf link, page #147)

…”without my knowledge and against my wishes”?

Huh?

FBI Director James Comey admits to leaking his ‘memos’ to the New York Times. FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe was busted for leaking and lying about it. FBI #2 Counterintelligence Agent Peter Strzok and FBI Attorney Lisa Page are caught in their text messages leaking to Politico, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post.

…. AND the FBI is caught, in at least one FISA application, using Yahoo media reports provided by them AND their investigative source Christopher Steele to establish a basis for the FISA “Title I” surveillance; the most intrusive and wide-open search and surveillance authority possible.

The Clinton Campaign is paying Fusion GPS to conduct opposition research against Donald Trump. In addition to Glenn Simpson pushing that opposition research into the media, Fusion GPS, Nellie Ohr and Bruce Ohr are also providing that opposition research –including information from contacts with media– directly to the FBI:

(pdf link – page #4)

… In addition to using the Fusion-GPS opposition research to underpin their counterintelligence investigation, the FBI then turn around and leak the same opposition research information to the media to create secondary support for their counterintelligence investigation.

Tell me again how the media can possibly write about this now?

The problem is not just corruption with the U.S. Justice System, the DOJ and the FBI; the problem is corruption within the media.

We’re talking about thousands of hours of media TV pundits, thousands more columns written, and almost every scintilla of it based on originating intelligence sources -from the larger intelligence system- that are now being exposed as duplicitous and conspiratorial in the scale of their malicious intent.

This larger story-line has traveled in one direction. The narrative has only traveled in one direction. Each thread converging on codependent trails for collective stories all going in one direction. One big engineered narrative endlessly pushed. Think about how far the collective media have traveled with this story over the past eighteen months?

Hell, twenty-something-year-old “journalist” Ali Watkins was so committed to the resistance narrative she was even sleeping with her sources to get any little engineering angle possible. One of the biggest leaks she was able to secure from SSCI Director of Security James Wolfe, was the full unredacted Carter Page FISA application.

Now, over a period of several exhaustive months, it has become obvious the collective journey, using all that collaborative expended effort, was not only going in the wrong direction – it was going in that direction specifically because the media were intentionally complicit in pushing demonstrably false stories in that direction.

The media have fully invested themselves in eighteen months of narrative distribution in only one direction. Not a single MSM entity has questioned their travel as a result of false leaks or false sources in the totality of time they have covered the DOJ and FBI story.

Nothing within their collective need to will-an-outcome will change the media’s proximity to facts when the truthful story behind the DOJ and FBI corruption is finally exposed. The media are so far away from the place where this story ends, they have no inherent capability to even begin to travel in the opposite direction, toward the truth.

The only way they could align with the truth is to admit that virtually every scintilla of their reportage over the past 18 months was inherently false or manipulated by the “sources” distributing the material for their reporting.

There’s not a single media outlet capable of doing that.

Think about a New York Times, CNN, New Yorker, Wall Street Journal, Mother Jones, Yahoo News or Washington Post journalist now having to write an article deconstructing a foundation of two-years worth of lies they participated in creating.

Do we really think such a catastrophic level of corrupted journalism could reconstitute into genuine reporting of fact-based information?

EVER?

Impossible.

Aug 17 2018

President Trump Impromptu Presser Departing White House…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 17, 2018 by

Departing the White House for New York and New Jersey, President Trump delivers impromptu remarks and holds a brief unscheduled presser prior to climbing aboard Marine-One.

Aug 17 2018

How We Were Created


   “US” by Paul Genova

 
  (Mr. Paul Genova has been President and Chief Operating Officer of Wireless Telecom Group Inc since June 30, 2016.

I haven’t said too much about this election since the start…but this is how I feel….

  I’m noticing that a lot of people aren’t graciously accepting the fact that their candidate lost.

In fact you seem to be posting even more hateful things about those who voted for Trump.  Some are apparently

“triggered” because they are posting how “sick” you feel about the results.

  How did this happen you ask? Well here is how it happened!
 
You created “us” when you attacked our freedom of speech.

  You created “us” when you attacked our right to bear arms.

  You created “us” when you attacked our Christian beliefs.

  You created “us” when you constantly referred to us as racists.

  You created “us” when you constantly called us xenophobic.

You created “us” when you told us to get on board or get out of the way.

You created “us” when you attacked our flag

  You created “us” when you took God out of our schools.

  You created “us” when you confused women’s rights with feminism.

  You created “us” when you began to emasculate men.

  You created “us” when you decided to make our children soft.

You created “us” when you decided to vote for progressive ideals.

  You created “us” when you attacked our way of life.

You created “us” when you decided to let our government get out of control.

  You created “us” the silent majority

  You created “us” when you began murdering innocent law enforcement officers.

  You created “us” when you lied and said we could keep our insurance plans and our doctors

  You created “us” when you allowed our jobs to continue to leave our country.

You created “us” when you took a knee, or stayed seated or didn’t remove your hat during our National Anthem.

You created “us” when you forced us to buy health care and then financially penalized us for not participating.

        And we became fed up and we pushed back and spoke up.

  And we did it with ballots, not bullets.

  With ballots, not riots.

  With ballots, not looting.

  With ballots, not blocking traffic.

  With ballots, not fires, except the one you started inside of “us”

  “YOU” created “US”.

  It really is just that simple.

Everyone needs to see this. Post and resend.

 

 

Aug 17 2018

Political Islam, Not Religious Islam


Aug 16 2018 | by

In order to deal with Islam intelligently, we must understand the doctrine. The common assumption is that Islam is a religion, but religion is only one part of its complete civilization which also contains a culture and its own laws. Religion is about answers to what happens after death, but we only need to understand how Islam impacts non-Muslims in this life today, mainly through its Sharia law. I call the Islam that affects the non-Muslim (Kafir) – political.

We see from Mohammed’s life that he started preaching a religion. He was largely unsuccessful so he emigrated to Medina where he became a politician and a jihadist and was a great success. We can see this division in Sharia texts which concerns religion, business law, family law and criminal law. For example, jihad is both religious and political.

The Sharia is “Allah’s” law and is superior to Kafir laws. Since the Sharia makes constant demands on the Muslim immigrants’ host country, it is important that our leaders understand what it is. The concept of Islamic politics allows our leaders to see the demands as just that—political demands that must be rejected when they contradict our laws.