The White House Changed the Definition of a Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Governments have a way with words. Namely, they can change the definition of a word at the stroke of a pen. The definition of “vaccine” changed under the CDC’s guidance from “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease” to “a preparation that is used to stimulate the body’s immune response against diseases.” This permitted the COVID experimental injection to be called a “vaccine.”

According to some on the top US court, only a specialized biologist can define the term “woman.” “Mothers” has changed to “birthing people,” and words seem to have lost all meaning.

Now, the White House is changing its definition of “recession.” A recession was typically categorized as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, albeit not the best measure. Still, this was the tried and true formula for the government to determine the health of the overall economy. The White House now says that data from every facet of the US economy must be considered and foreshadows what to expect for Q2. The White House will not admit that the US is in a recession under Joe Biden. They will downplay the next GDP reading for Q2 and cite their newly formed definition for a “recession.”

Senator Liawatha Rants Big Mad with Forked Tongue


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance 

Senator Elizabeth “Fauxcahontus” Warren writes an op ed today [SEE HERE] that is fraught with a level of ideological pretending almost off the charts.

Essentially Liawatha is big mad because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is raising interest rates into a contracting economy.

The duplicitous senator accurately notes what the fed chairman is doing is only going to deepen the recession and hurt main street worse.

American workers are going to suffer, and the middle-class is going to bear the majority of the pain inflicted by the Biden administration policy.

All of that is true, but Fauxcahontus is not stupid.  Instead, she attempts to distance herself with forked tongue while knowing the monetary policy is specifically designed to support the energy policy she demands.

A recession lowers energy use, and as a result lowers energy costs. Pushing the U.S. economy deeper into a recession in order to support the Green New Deal “economic transition” is exactly the intent of the rate hikes.  Liawatha knows this but does not want to be stuck on the USS Biden when it sinks.

“Rising costs are an urgent problem, and interest rates play a key role in maintaining price stability. But urgency is no excuse for doubling down on a dangerous treatment. As with any illness, the right medicine starts with the right diagnosis. Unfortunately, the Fed has seized on aggressive rate hikes—a big dose of the only medicine at its disposal—even though they are largely ineffective against many of the underlying causes of this inflationary spike.” (read more)

Senator Elizabeth Warren is the worst kind of liar.  She is a liar that convinces her followers of her virtue through forked tongue.  Turn over the Senator Elizabeth Warren UniParty medallion and on the opposite side you will find the image of Senator Ted Cruz.

.

The Professional Republican Club Blames Inflation and More Discerning MAGA Supporters for Failure to Support Selected Club Candidates


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance 

The professionally republican party members, led by Ronna McDaniel Inc, are not happy with the grassroots MAGA voters who are not filling their party campaign coffers at the anticipated rate.

If the donors of the grassroot MAGA base continue to withhold financial contributions, mostly due to a lack of club alignment with the priorities of the voting base and the right wing of the DC UniParty refusing to act for our interests, the professional republican club business may suffer.  The tenured board members of the club are not happy. Not happy at all.  [Washington Examiner Article]

Keep in mind, the only two times in the modern Republican club era when grassroots funds exceeded the corporate Wall Street donor class, was in 2010 with the rise of the Tea Party and then again in 2016 with MAGA and Donald Trump.

Small dollar donations (under $250) within the GOPe club were never a part of the established republican club priority, until they saw what can happen when the grassroots mobilize.  It was the scale of donations from the Tea Party base (monster vote) and MAGA base (monster vote) that stunned former RNC Chairman Reince Priebus in 2016. Mr. Priebus temporarily convinced the GOPe Club owners (board members) to tamp down their open hostility and verbal disparagement against the base.

The professionally republican club members, including Ronna McDaniel Inc, despise the vulgarian deplorables with a condescending intensity that drips from their pursed lips as they sip white wine spritzers from their crystal goblets at cocktail parties. It’s a similar dynamic of hatred on the DNC club side of politics toward the Bernie Sanders vulgarians; although Obama Inc (Plouffe, Axelrod, et al) taught the Pelosi crew to hide it better.

WASHINGTON DC – […] “We do these massive 3,000-person surveys to our donor file,” Moffatt explained. “The verbatim [responses have been:] It’s gas or this donation; it’s vacation with our children or this donation.” Republican insiders interviewed for this story were more guarded when discussing the Trump factor in the second-quarter fundraising downturn experienced by so many GOP candidates and groups, fearing reprisals by the former president. Granted anonymity, they unloaded.

Republicans are critical of Trump’s fundraising tactics and the money he has taken off the table for Republican candidates and groups to raise and spend. Save America, Trump’s PAC, issues dozens of email appeals daily and raked in $103.7 million this cycle. If the former president were sharing the wealth, perhaps Republicans would be less resentful. But Trump appears to be hoarding cash, $103.1 million through June 30, for a 2024 presidential bid. (read more)

Biden Puts His Economic Credibility On The Line Ahead of Thursday BEA Report, I Do Not Think We Will See a Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance

The White House is expending a tremendous amount of communication effort over the past 48 hours trying to convince the American public that the economy is good, and we are not in a recession.

Yesterday it was Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Today National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese, White House Economist Jared Bernstein and even Joe Biden himself, all declaring that despite the economic contraction you may feel, see and even quantify, we are not in a recession.  WATCH:

.

The action of the recession deniers reminds me of the famous Ralph Waldo Emmerson quote:

The louder he spoke of his honor, the faster we counted our spoons.”

.

.

The Recession Deniers

WHO Leader Declares Monkeypox Global Health Emergency, Despite Majority of WHO Panel Experts Saying No to Emergency


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 23, 2022 | sundance


World Health Organization Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, declared a global health emergency for monkeypox today despite a majority of the assembled panel of experts voting 9-6 not to declare a global health emergency.

July 23 (Reuters) – The rapidly spreading monkeypox outbreak represents a global health emergency, the World Health Organization’s highest level of alert, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Saturday.

The WHO label – a “public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)” – is designed to trigger a coordinated international response and could unlock funding to collaborate on sharing vaccines and treatments.

Members of an expert committee that met on Thursday to discuss the potential recommendation were split on the decision, with nine members against and six in favour of the declaration, prompting Tedros himself to break the deadlock, he told reporters.

“Although I am declaring a public health emergency of international concern, for the moment this is an outbreak that is concentrated among men who have sex with men, especially those with multiple sexual partners,” Tedros told a media briefing in Geneva. (read more)

Mysterious Missiles Strike Grain Facility at Ukraine Port One Day After Russia and Ukraine Sign Grain Export Deal


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 23, 2022 | sundance 

Let me say from the outset, with a degree of specific assurance we generally reserve for other matters, Russia had nothing to do with the targeting of a grain facility in the port city of Odesa.  Geopolitically and strategically, such an action would be against their interests.  These events have the smell of the U.S. State Dept and CIA all over them.

Start by first reviewing the agreement between Russia and Ukraine that was announced yesterday. July 22 (Reuters) – Russia and Ukraine signed a landmark deal on Friday to reopen Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports, raising hopes that an international food crisis … can be eased.”   NATO country Turkey, specifically Recep Erdogan, brokered the deal between Russia and Ukraine.  Ignore the narrative engineering and WATCH:

Russia was particularly a geopolitical beneficiary from the agreement itself.  No longer could NATO and the western alliance blame Russia for the void in gobal food markets associated with the conflict in Ukraine.

From the perspective of Russian President Putin, the grain movement through the port city of Odesa was a net benefit.  “Russia has taken on the obligations that are clearly spelled out in this document. We will not take advantage of the fact that the ports will be cleared and opened. We have made this commitment,” said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

However, from the perspective of the Western alliance, the agreement mooted one of their biggest justifications for the upcoming global food shortage.   If Ukraine and Russia are exporting food, and yet food costs are still rising…. well, the food shortage impact from western energy disruption, the Build Back Better agenda, starts to become increasingly visible.

Suddenly, within hours of the trade agreement, the grain transportation system and the port city of Odesa come under fire from mysterious cruise missiles.

Europe – Missiles struck a key Ukrainian port Saturday, just one day after Kyiv and Moscow signed a breakthrough deal to unblock shipments of grain. Pointing the finger at Russia, Ukraine’s air force chief said the port — a key site for exporting Ukrainian grain — had been deliberately targeted.

“The port of Odesa, where grain is processed for shipment, was shelled. We shot down two missiles, and two more missiles hit the port territory, where, obviously, there is grain,” Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuri Ignat told reporters.

Russia has denied any involvement in the strikes, says Turkey’s defence minister.

The strike has been “unequivocally condemned” by the UN, alongside EU officials, such as European Commission vice president Josep Borrell, who said it “demonstrates Russia’s total disregard for international law.” (read more)

The origin of the mysterious missile attack becomes clear when you overlay the question of ‘who has motive’?

It wasn’t Russia.

We can be almost certain it was the U.S. State Department, and covert CIA operators, who used their operational control within Ukraine to target the exports.

Stopping the export of Ukrainian grain is in the interests of the western alliance.  After all, it was the United States who previously claimed, “Vladimir Putin is weaponizing food.”…

Apparently, Russian President Vladimir Putin has the ability to drive up U.S. inflation, explode U.S. energy costs, increase gasoline prices, influence global agriculture, weaken U.S. oil refining capability, disrupt availability of diesel fuel, impede the transportation of U.S. goods, force municipal energy companies to raise prices, cancel airline flights, stop the manufacturing of infant formula and now block the production -and increase the cost- of food in North America.

That’s their collective story, and they’re sticking to it.

That Escalated Quickly, New York Times Ponders if we are Ready Yet to Start Eating People


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 23, 2022 | sundance 

Considering that I have yet to absorb, or accept, the increasingly likely possibility of society normalizing people eating bugs, the looking over-the-horizon folks at the New York Times just, well, stopped me in my tracks.  I did not have eating people on my Biden consequences bingo card.

Tweet Link – Actual Story Link

I know Biden/Obama’s beloved Davos crowd (World Economic Forum) love to hold meetings about how their social engineering will create a “new normal” for everyone but themselves; however, I mean, c’mon, even for the furthest left this has to be a bridge too far, no?

Is the Biden era of transformational social change really going to go combine: defining “essential workers”, forced medical procedures, radical climate change, the eating of bugs and insects, post-birth abortion and chopping the genitals off children without parent consent, together with the social acceptability of cannibalism; all of it, into one term in office?

Climate Engineering: 40 Million in US West Without Water in 2023


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Our models have been indicating a decline in both the food and water supply, which go hand-in-hand. Other analysts are coming out to warn that the inevitable cycle is underway. Climate engineering researcher Dane Wigington believes the cycle has been propelled forward by manmade forces. “The mainstream media and official sources are doing their best to sweep it under the rug. We are talking about 40 million people that will be impacted by the drying out of the Colorado River basin and tributaries.”

Interviewer Greg Hunter plainly asked Wigington if this was a deliberate attempt to diminish the population. “Yes,” he replied without hesitation. “There is no speculation, no hypothesis or conjecture in any of this. Climate engineering is the primary cause for the protracted drought, and not just in the U.S. but in many other parts of the world. It also causes a deluge scenario, and all of it is crushing crops. We can speculate to the motives and agendas behind those who run these operations, but the fact that climate engineering is the primary causal factor for the western drought is inarguable.”

Wigington sees extreme water rationing coming as soon as 2023. Once Lake Mead reaches “dead-pool” status, crops will die out, water will be unavailable for irrigation, and there will be no electrical power generation. Drought is causing water to evaporate at levels beyond what is reported in the mainstream media.

“This is a runaway train of total cataclysm, and those in power are preventing anyone from even discussing this issue down to the point that there is an illegal federal gag order on the nation’s weathermen at the National Weather Service and NOAA,” Wigington stated. The government would only place a gag order on reporters if there were something to hide. Climate engineering may be one of the new tools to fight future wars and control the population.

I’m adding this note: Some of this is real the water levels are dropping. Some of the rest is also possible because Bill Gates was testing this idea a while back.

China Banking Crisis & the Unsuspecting World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Jul 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While authorities have accused a private financial group of misleading members of the public with promises of high-return wealth management products, what is not being said publicly is the fact that the rise in the dollar is a significant factor undermining emerging markets in which China participated. The Chinese government warned the provinces and private companies NOT to borrow dollars. Despite the fact that the Chinese government is portrayed as COMMUNIST still in the West, there would be no banking crisis if they were.

Many operations borrowed in dollars made the same fatal mistake I have witnessed since the 1980s. They sell these loans in a foreign currency with the expectation of saving money on interest. But the FX can be 20% to 40% within a 2-year period and there is NEVER any foreign exchange consideration. In addition to this FX crisis, the inexperience of people who think it is easy to be a money manager has discovered the reality of being inexperienced. This is why you find the standard clause in the West – past performance is no guarantee of future success.

Japan is once again the largest holder of US debt. This is NOT because they have been buying more, it is because China is selling off debt gradually because the dollar is high and the risk of war with the United States is rising by the day. Biden has already destroyed the world economy. It is now impossible to repair even if you vote for all Republicans 100%. The destruction of SWIFT has divided the world and has terminated Globalism. China is liquidating US debt gradually and rightly so. Beware of 2023 ahead. The people writing the scripts for Biden are ONLY concerned with climate change and have ZERO experience in geopolitics.

Henry Kissinger has been a critic of Biden on his war effort against Russia and China, or should I say the real president who is writing the scripts. EVERY President since Nixon has invited Henry to the White House EXCEPT Biden. Henry is the best geopolitical analyst I know of. I myself was called by my local Congressman asking me to fly to a meeting. I declined. But I asked why was I being called? I was told there is a serious lack of experience in Washington. I was stunned, to say the least. I have no desire to step into what has become a hateful confrontation in Washington that resembles a high school food fight in the cafeteria.

If you do not have eyes in the back of your head, you better learn how to use a rear-view mirror. The purpose of this blog is to help you to see that we are all connected. The old saying about Chaos Theory was that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Thailand can alter the weather cycle in Europe. The slightest alteration can produce a starkly different outcome. This is why I am often a critic with a different view when it comes to governments. Those at the helm are often LINEAR thinkers who see only one cause and effect that produces the future.

It is people like Klaus Schwab who think they are so intelligent that they can actually alter and shape the future. His entire premise of the 4th Industrial Revolution is that he can direct it and control it when creativity cannot be controlled or put on some schedule. A good trader learns from his mistakes. If he never made a mistake, then he will end up in a real crisis for he will assume he is always right and then lose it all.

Life is a learning process. We advance only as we learn and the mother of all invention is our mistakes. Learn well from them, if you wish to survive and stop blaming other people. That is the #1 problem with the goldbugs. They do not seek to understand, but just blame the bankers for why gold has not reached $10,000. They cannot advance because they look at the market objectively. That is a critical factor we learn in this journey we call life.

Japan Surpasses China as Top Holder of US Debt


Armstrong economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jul 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

For the first time since 2010, China holds less than $1 trillion in US debt. China held $980.8 billion in US debt in May, a $23 billion decline from April and a $100 billion decline from a year prior. In fact, the US Treasury Department noted that China has been reducing its holdings for the past six consecutive months.

Japan is now the top holder of US debt, reaching $1.212 trillion in May, marking a slight increase from $1.218 trillion in April. Total foreign holdings declined by $7.42 trillion in May as those who see what is coming want no part in government debt.

This did not go well for Japan in the past. You see, the USD remains the last safe haven among currencies. Rates are set to rise, other currencies are set to decline, and the countries left holding US debt will be forced to pay much more than intended. No one seems to understand this simple staple of FOREX.

China unloading US debt could indicate growing geopolitical tensions, which our models indicate could break out in 2023.