Category Gold Bars

Jan 26 2024

Do Futures Result in Manipulating Gold?


Posted Jan 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 
1924 Gold Hoard 2

COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you. I am a converted gold bug. Your comment about how gold was $875 in 1980 and the Dow was 1,000 compared to today cannot be ignored. I can see now that it is more of a religion than reality, like climate change absent the science. I was at Starbucks, and Generation X before me just paid with his phone. They have no idea what money is and have no idea of precious metals.

I just want to say thank you. I now understand they are a hedge when confidence collapses and we are moving closer to that period day by day.

Thank you for the education

Kerry

QUESTION #1: Hello; If a house cost $4,000 in 1930, then it cost 200 x 1930 $20 gold pieces to buy the house.
A $20 dollar gold piece @ 33.4 grams of gold today would be $471,000. So not much change except the standard house in 1930 could have used some updates. Wonder if property corellates to gold?
Just for fun; Rob

Wonder Break 1930

ANSWER #1:  You have to be careful, for this is usually a selective analysis put out as a sales pitch. A loaf of Wonder Bread was 10 cents in 1930, and it’s about $5 today. That is the standard long-term inflation. This key is that everything rises and falls.

Yes, it’s good to be diversified. Just be careful with the gold bugs. They often tell you to sell everything, for only gold will rise. That is just not true, and I have seen so many people lose a fortune on that advice.

Babtlon Futures Contracr

QUESTION #2:  Mr. Armstrong,
could you explain how futures markets affect the spot price/the market price?
We hear of futures markets manipulating, affecting the market price, but how is i ask?
I heard that because of the futures markets we then get a different perception of the market price. Meaning that if the futures are trading lower, than the market price will get lower or if the futures are trading higher than the market price will trade higher. Is this true??
Regards,
Pietro

ANSWER #2: It is a fool’s argument to try to explain why gold peaked at $875 in 1980, with the Dow Jones Industrials at 1,000. Today, gold is $2,000, and the Dow is 33,000.  So, to explain why gold has not risen, it must be manipulated.

Futures provide liquidity to any commodity or market. Liquidity expands the market, and thus, more people get involved. If you closed the futures market, then the only way to trade gold would be in physical bullion. The number of investors would collapse. Moreover, producers need the futures market to sell forward to lock in a profit to produce. If a farmer plants a crop expecting to get the market price when planting and something happens when it goes to harvest, he can lose his shirt and be out of business. Future contracts are selling your crop when you plant it, and you are effectively selling the risk to someone else. Here is a futures contract from Babylon during the 19th century BC. This is the way markets have been able to function for thousands of years.

Dow Gold Ratio Y 1 13 24 1

My mother always told me there is a time and place for everything. Eliminating the futures market would rapidly make gold untradable. Miners will not function if they always have to roll the dice, hoping gold will rise and not decline when they finish refining a lot. This is the same for farmers and even in funds management.

I was offered $60 billion to manage as a stock fund in the USA. Because there is a conflict between the SEC and the CFTC, the rule was I could not HEDGE more than 17% at the time, or that would change the definition to a futures fund from an equity fund. I declined because if I saw a crash coming, I would have to sell the stocks, for I would not be allowed to sell futures to cover the risk. That is why I, along with others, started the hedge fund industry back in the 1980s: when S&P500 futures began to trade, these two agencies were fighting over jurisdiction. It was IMPOSSIBLE to comply with the law under the SEC, for you would go to jail with the CFTC. Hence, it was the OVERREGULATION that created the hedge fund industry by force.

Futures are vital because they provide the liquidity to expand markets. Because gold is an international commodity, it CANNOT be manipulated to turn a bull market into a bear market. Even the manipulation claims against the bankers are standard in trading markets. They would know where all the stops are, and they would gun for them. There is always room for swings within any market, but you cannot take a bull market and make a bear market at will.

SSCentAm Gold Bar Black

And just for the record, I have bought gold over the years. I bought a hoard of $20 gold pieces from a central bank. I have bought gold bars from the SS Central America that went down and caused the Panic of 1857. Gold and silver have their place in a diversified portfolio. NO PORTFOLIO should ever be 100% on one thing!

Jan 14 2024

Interview: Gold Surges Between War-Driven Inflation Dynamics


Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |

Interview with GoldSeek Radio:

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, reviews charts of the major indexes in real-time, noting “2024 could be a chaotic year.”

– Interest rates rise during boom periods.

“Yeah, I think people have to understand that the vast majority of analysis out there is all domestic. They’re just calling for the Fed and I think so many of them are talking about a major crash in 2024. What they never do is look outside the country. And honestly, if you look at the 3 indexes look at the Dow, the S&P, and then the NASDAQ, you’ll see the Dow leading.

And that is basically showing you that what’s going on here is international capital inflows. I mean, the more it’s getting crazy for wars just about everywhere. From Asia, you’re looking at the Middle East. You’re looking at Europe. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little bit and hedging their bets and they’re moving money to the States. That’s why the Dow has been rising, more so than you see. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little.

… but then again you have people just looking at the Fed and talking about ‘Oh, transparency.’ And is they only ever keep talking about old defense, going to ‘Lower rates, lower rates, lower rates.’

If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We are looking at increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the 1970s…and you’re looking there at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.

– Increased inflation could erupt due to supply shortages and skirmishes.
– Stagflation similar to the 70’s could soon come to the domestic economy.

“That was basically caused by OPEC raising the price of oil dramatically and that created a cost-push inflation. So everybody’s costs were rising dramatically. Anything that had to do with plastic, went up dramatically and that created eventually the inflationary boom between 1976 going into 1980. As for gold rose to $875, etc…I think gold was about a $100 in 1976 and it rose to about $400 but that was by December 1979, the last six weeks of the rally, which peaked in 1980 on January 21st. So from December to January 21st, that’s when Russia invaded Afghanistan. So it was the geopolitical stuff that took gold from $400 to $875. So it’s important to understand inflation is not the major driving power but inflation when war is around – that’s what broke Bretton Woods…it was the Vietnam War.”

– Funds may be flowing into the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 stocks from global unrest.
– Geopolitical opinion and commentary.

Jan 14 2024

Gold v Political Reform


Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Dow Gold Ratio Y 1 13 24

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My wife insists that I write to thank you for making me invest in stocks rather than gold. We split the money, and my wife invested in the Dow with your 2015 ECM turn, and I kept the gold. She beat me on the Dow since it closed in 2023, up about 250%. After reading your input into history, am I correct that this argument of fiat currency is erroneous? It seems like civilizations have risen and fallen, no matter the money system at the time. Could you elaborate on whether this is true or false?

Disappointed goldbug.

PismoBeach1933Clamshell

ANSWER: Not many men would admit their wives beat them in investments. Many things have been used for money, from bronze and clam shells to emergency paper currency. Those who insist that somehow gold is the only thing that is money do not know their history, and in the process, they have been misled seriously, which actually prevents them from seeing the real problem. Bitcoin is not money nor a medium of exchange because not everyone will accept it. A medium of exchange has to be something that everyone accepts.

There is a common theme that runs through ALL forms of money, and it has NOTHING to do with what is being used as the medium of exchange.

Minoan Ingot Sheep Skin

If we are objective, even metal has varied. Bronze was valuable because it could be used to make a tool or a weapon – hence the Bronze Age. It was first used in an ingot form. However, it was cast in the shape of an earlier form of money – sheepskins. Thus, the story of Jason is in search of the golden fleece.

Rome AesSignatum Bull
Lydia FirstCoins

The Romans cast bronze into ingots, and the value was equal to one head of cattle. The first coins of Rome are also bronze, beginning with just lumps and then taking the standardized weight and shape. In Turkey, they began with what was known as electrum, which was a natural alloy mixture of gold and silver found in the riverbeds.

The official first coins were struck in Lydia, modern-day Turkey. This was the first “fiat” money since it was declared a standard value by the king, who applied the image of a lion. This was his badge, certifying its value and weight.

Orichalcum

For example, there was a metal that was second to gold, which was really just brass. Orichalcum was the legendary metal of Atlantis, whose buildings were said to have been clad in this rare metal that looked similar to gold. Orichalcum was mined in Atlantis in ancient times, but by the time of Plato, this metal was unknown. Orichalcum was a legend by Plato’s time when he mentioned it in his story of Atlantis in the Critas of Plato. Critias (460–403 BC) says that Orichalcum had been considered second only to gold in value and had been found and mined in many parts of

NERO_AE_Dup AE As

Nero also experimented with issuing the traditional bronze coinage in Orichalcum (brass). In order to render the Dupondius distinguishable from its half-denomination, Roman As a radiate crown was added to this denomination, leaving the traditional laurel wreath style portrait for the Roman As. The Dupondius reform prevailed until the end of Dupondius’s regular issues, while the experiment in brass died out following Hadrian (117-138AD).

Common Theme

A gold standard will not solve the problem because it is NOT what is being used as money but the system. If governments issued platinum coins and claimed these are worth $100,000 each, that is also fiat, where the government decrees the value. This common thread that runs through everything is the trustworthiness of the government. As long as we have socialism, where politicians promise things, they will always create more money to accomplish that. DEBT = MONEY that pays interest. People also point to the Fed and overlook the fact that it is Congress that creates the money by issuing debt that can be used as an asset in a loan.

Gold will not solve the problem. We need political reform FIRST and then worry about constraining government thereafter.

Dec 29 2023

States to Deem Silver and Gold Legal Tender


Posted originally on Dec 29, 2023 By Martin Armstrong |  

silver coins bags

Several US states are considering legislation to reclassify gold and silver as money rather than commodities. Bills filed in Oklahoma and Missouri aim to eliminate state capital gains taxes on the sale of gold and silver, and to treat these metals as currency. Other states like Arkansas and Utah are also considering introducing similar legislation. The proposed laws also include provisions to authorize the state to invest in gold or silver and to prevent state entities from seizing gold or silver bullion.

These measures are seen as steps toward reducing barriers to using gold and silver as money and lowering the investment cost of precious metals. On the plus, gold and silver may be used in transactions without an additional fee. If I purchase something for $100, I am not charged an additional fee for using USD – but let’s not give the government any ideas. Proponents of the bill say the Federal Reserve has a monopoly on our banking system, and deeming precious metals legal tender would prevent the central bank from having total control over fiat currency.

Not so fast – the government will not relinquish their control over the monetary system. They have told us their plan for digital currencies and deeming gold and silver currency will only make it easier for the government to confiscate. The entire problem that people do not grasp with regard to any return to a gold standard is that if the money supply is FIXED in any way, that necessitates the collapse of SOCIALISM. The two are directly linked. Politicians only know how to run with deficits. “Vote for me and I will give you everything!”

The Bretton Woods gold standard collapsed because they FIXED the price of gold at $35, but they continued to print money far beyond the supply of gold at that fixed price. Then there is the largely ignored business cycle. No matter what the money might be, there will be boom times when the value of money declines and the asset values rise. There is a natural course of a business cycle to the economy you cannot flatline or eliminate no matter how many schemes you invent from central banks, Keynesianism, Monetarism, Socialism, or Communism. It just cannot be accomplished.

Gold Hedge

The problem is not the physical money we use. The problem is that governments continually abuse their power and recklessly dive deeper into debt with each new spending package. Bretton Woods collapsed, as did every attempt to create any monetary system of some fixed value. Yes, they are not considering a gold-backed system here, but deeming gold and silver legal tender misses the mark. Gold and silver were hedges AGAINST government. The people have been able to use commodities to trade amongst themselves since the dawn of civilization. This legislation permits the government to intervene and naturally impose regulations.

The year 2025 will bring a turning point in Marxism as we reach the midpoint of the 224-year cycle (1913-2025).

Nov 5 2023

Interview: Gold and the Dollar will Rise Together Re-Posted Nov 5, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Watch the video above or click here to watch my latest interview with Goldseek Radio.

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, outlines his gold market projections in lieu of unraveling geopolitical conditions.

Armstrong says, “You have a lot of uncertainty and confusing trends developing. When this materializes in people understanding what’s happening…the dollar and gold would go up together. Because you are looking at a flight of capital. Some people want to buy gold, some people want to get out of Europe, etc. Not everybody does the same thing. The two trends will come together. That’s what our computer is projecting, and it’s happened many times in history.”

– Epic gold breakout ahead!
– Convergence of economic themes – recession next year and escalating conflicts?
– Comments on crude oil.
– On the cusp of WWIII by 2025?
– How to foment de-escalation within the ranks of the power-hungry elite.
– Might societal decay accelerate?
– Tangible assets are key to surviving collapse.
– 90% silver coins remain an ideal survival investment.

Apr 24 2023

Panic of 1857 & Gold


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Apr 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Didn’t you also buy gold bars from the SS Central America ship that was discovered? The gold bugs hate you and say you are bearish gold but you buy a lot of it.

All the best

JE

ANSWER: Oh yes. I tend to collect important relics from major economic events.  The sinking of that ship set off a financial panic in NYC because the banks were counting on that gold shipment. I did buy bars. There were some 30,000 pounds (13,600 kg) of gold and about 15 tons were recovered.

They are a piece of history. I would not melt them down.