Category World Economic Form

Oct 16 2017

Italy’s Solution for Unemployment = Pension Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece

Re-Posted Oct 16, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The high taxation in Europe has crippled the economy. Those in power have not yet figured out that 70% of employment is created by the small business owner who they consider the rich and thus the enemy. Nowhere has this been more the case in Italy, Greece, and Spain. Italy is the next on the list of this Year From Political Hell come May 2018 and with youth unemployment above 30% for the past six years, the solution is not to lower taxes, but to steal from pensions to pay benefits to the youth.

In 2015 alone, some 50,000 Italians under 40 years of age migrated elsewhere to find jobs. Nearly half of them had gone to university to get degrees to no avail. All the fancy papers to frame and hang on the wall are not worth the cost of a frame. Italy and Greece are bleeding as their young talent cannot find a job and are pouring out of the country. The loss of these people is being argued is costing Italy 1% per year in economic growth. The estimate is closer to a 2% loss on GDO for Greece.

The center-left government of Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni has recognized the crisis but as all leftist governments, they just cannot bring themselves to look in a mirror.  The proposition in the coming budget is to provide for measures that would motivate companies to hire young people. Because of the EU budget rules imposed by German Austerity, there is no room for more government spending. This youth unemployment is becoming a major issue because of the upcoming elections in 2018.

How can government create more spending yet remain inside the EU rules? The new scheme is to lower social security contributions for newly hired employees under a certain age. Therefore, employers will see that young people who they hire will have less money taken out for state pension contribution and thus make them cheaper to hire. In addition, Italy’s government is considering sending up to half a million civil servants to retirement and therefore create government jobs for the youth.ng workers.

The solution is by no means lowering the taxes on small business to create economic growth. These proposals will create the incentive for business to ONLY hire the youth and to terminate the higher cost employees whenever possible. Lowering the pension costs in social security contributions can only lead also to the dismissal of those employed young people as soon as they grow older and exceed the age limit to be determined. And the promise of new jobs in the state fails to account for the rise in pension costs.

The Italian pensions system is a Ponzi Scheme so retirees are paid for by the contributions from the youth. The entire pension system is in crisis and this scheme concocted post-World War II is reaching the breaking point. Even in the USA, the census has revealed that of the 18-34 age group, 32.1% live in their parents’ house, while 31.6% live with a spouse or partner in their own homes and 14% live alone, as single parents or in a home with roommates or renters. The number of youth living at home into their 30s is greater than out on their own.

In Italy, the age at which young Italians can expect to be financially dependent on their parents is also growing rising rapidly and is expected to reach 38% by as early as 2018. Without a complete restructure of government, using the analysis of whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion will reach a staggering 48% by the end of the next 8.6-year wave 2028.

The Italian government is not addressing the issue and even on the retirement front, the government plans to increase the retirement age to 67 years after the elections.

This is why the whole system is simply UNSUSTAINABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oct 16 2017

The Coming One-World Currency


Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs

Re-Posted Oct 16, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Bitcoin + Cryptocurrencies
Firstly, thank you – I’ve learned more from your blog and models that high-school would ever have hoped to teach me. And even after a year I am a still at the start-line of knowledge.
I am also been a follower and investor/gambler on crypto for over a year.
I concur with your findings that Govt’ will ultimately try to ban or regulate to tax crypto currencies. It really is all about tax. nothing else. I really don’t see how it can have anything to do with terrorist funding and the need to track all transactions, considering that as far back as 1996 the Federal Reserve that “ about $200 billion to $250 billion of U.S. currency was abroad at the end of 1995, or more than half the roughly $375 billion then in circulation outside of banks.” So how do the track this cash? or do they really care?
But what happens if the people just ignore the gov’t(s) attempt to ban crypto? What then?
Is it likely, or even remotely possible that most gov’ts would work jointly and simultaneously to ban crypto currencies?
Will there always be several countries that will ignore / not join this movement to benefit from the flow of currency – even if this inflow is crypto currency or not hard currency?
What will happy if the people just revolt and ignore the gov’’s efforts to tax crypto or ban it?
Some insight on how and what happened with previous alternative currencies who help shed some light on this. Could you also recommend some reading in this area.
Thanks again for your patience and skill in translating your work into digestible English so people like myself can benefit from your knowledge
D

ANSWER: This is a battle to the death.  A cryptocurrency is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange using cryptography to secure the transactions and to control the creation of additional units of the currency. However, this idea has also falsely embraced the notion that a cryptocurrency will be a store of value and hence defeat inflation. That has proven to be absolute nonsense. The rise of cryptocurrency is a reflection that people do not trust government. Those in power know that and see this as unacceptable. Edward Snowden has pointed out that BitCoin is not as safe as everyone believes. He said:

“Obviously, Bitcoin by itself is flawed. The protocol has a lot of weaknesses and transaction sides and a lot of weaknesses that structurally make it vulnerable to people who are trying to own 50 percent of the network and so on and so forth.” … “Focusing too much on bitcoin, I think is a mistake. The real solution is again, how do we get to a point where you don’t have to have a direct link between your identity all of the time? You have personas. You have tokens that authenticate each person and when you want to be able to interact with people as your persona in your true name, you can do so.”

Zcash is far better than BitCoin for to remain equally interchangeable, units of Zcash are unlinked from their history so that one unit is as good as any other unit and this makes them really fungible in the to cryptocurrency world. They have unlinked shielded coins from their history on the blockchain. This means they can be used for tax avoidance and the government can use its Terrorist Card. They will not allow cryptocurrency to defeat taxes and BitCoin is not secure enough in that manner.

The rise in cryptocurrency has another side to it that is not being mentioned. Many of the people cheering BitCoin, are the dollar-haters who also tend to be the goldbugs. The interesting question that arises from this is very blunt. Has the introduction of cryptocurrency  been displacing gold as the alternative currency?

This is a subject that requires a lot more space for analysis than a blog post. We also have central banks looking at creating their own cryptocurrency  and that raises the possibility that private cryptocurrency will be banned.

There is absolutely no question that we are heading into a new Monetary System. The Monetary Crisis Cycle turns up next year. We saw what happened as soon as the ECM peaked in 2007 and we forecast new highs in the Dow back in 2010 (See Barrons), the War Cycle turned up in 2014 and our Political Cycle that pinpointed the political change in 2016 produced Trump, the ECM peak in 2015.75 marked the day of the Russian invasion of Syria that began the Refugee Crisis in Europe, our Models of Britain forecast BREXIT, and those on Catalonia forecast the separatist movement would rise 2 years in advance – just to mention a few.

We will issue a special report on the coming One World Currency. There is just too much to address in a blog post and this will be food for thought as we move forward through the end of this current cycle wave on the ECM.

Oct 16 2017

Theresa May Needs to Got to Vegas to Learn Poker


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Oct 16, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I know you use to live here in London and in Berlin, you said you still had your British driver’s license. Everyone knows you were friends with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and that you are the one they called when Britain had to face its disaster in joining the ERM. If you were to advise Prime Minister Theresa May, what would you tell her right now?

Thank you for your guidance in Britain

PH

ANSWER: Well the first thing, Theresa May should run to Las Vegas and take a course of playing poker and observe the game. You can win with a losing hand if you know how to project confidence and look like you have a winning hand. In law, I could get you on the witness stand and then ask when was the last time you beat your spouse. You will now have to deal with that agenda. You will swear you never beat anyone and you will want to call your spouse to say you never beat them. I will say that’s irrelevant because they will lie fearing you will beat them again. I have just set the agenda and you will be on defense the whole time. Forget everything else. You will leave the stand and people will think where there is smoke there is fire and surely I would have never asked that question without a reason.

This is what Brussels is doing to Britain. They have ABSOLUTELY no interest in actually negotiating any sort of a reasonable deal because their agenda is all about punishing Britain to set an example that nobody else will follow Britain out the door.

It is painfully obvious to anyone who is from the non-political world what is going on here. Britain has not yet realized there is no negotiating with the EU. The Brussels bureaucracy is protecting their jobs and it has NOTHING to do what is best for the people of Europe. So Theresa May is actually negotiating with herself. She offers a deal, the EU declines but makes no counter-offer, and she runs back trying to sweeten the offer.  She is trying to fit a square block into a round hole. Hello! The EU negotiators Michel Barnier, Jean-Claude Juncker and assorted company, are NOT negotiating in good faith because it is NOT in their best interest to do so.know four things that Britain’s team doesn’t seem to grasp.

As long as they can keep the uncertainty in play, they hope to see the pound collapse and that will make the British see they should stay. But the lower the pound declines, the better the British economy for exports are doing better. Companies I have talked with in Britain who were against BREXIT, are now saying it’s not so bad.

Juncker responded to Theresa May’s Florence speech saying of if she would stay until 2021, the Britain had to surrender sovereignty to the European Courts, which have consistently ruled against Britain just about every single time. The demands for a huge divorce payments is to fill the pension funds of the Brussels bureaucracy. This is a divorce where they want everything and Britain gets nothing in return.

Their refusal to make any counter-offer demonstrates their lack of good faith in any negotiation. This whole thing is a joke and Britain should refuse to pay anything and just leave. Do not forget, if Germany cannot sell cars to Britain, watch the economy in Germany collapse very fast. About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume. The trade deal works both ways, yet you would think it is a one-way street according to Jean-Claude Juncker and his gang of self-aggrandizing bureaucrats.

May holds the winning hand in the game and she seems not to understand even what it is. First, I would say find, (1) negotiations are over since there is never any proposal from Brussels, (2) there will be no divorce payment at all, (3) I would exit NATO and let Europe spend to defend itself, and (4) join NAFTA and cut my own trade deals with China.

END OF NEGOTIATION!

Then, and only then, will you see Jean-Claude Juncker suddenly lose 2 stone (28 pounds) as his phone melts down from German Industry screaming you IDIOT!!!! May holds the winning hand because Britain pays the most for the defense of Europe and they are the biggest market for German exports in Europe.

 

Oct 15 2017

Geopolitical Adversaries Prepare To Defend Against Trump’s Iran Strategy…


Re-Posted From The Conservative Tree House on October 14, 2017 by

Just because western media doesn’t understand how President Trump executes a geopolitical strategy based on economic leverage, that doesn’t mean adversaries are not fully aware of the effectiveness of the approach.

The Trump Doctrine has two avenues toward dealing with national security adversaries.

The first route is direct assignment of responsibility toward the enablers: see China for North Korea; The Gulf States for Qatar (Sunni extremism); Russia for Syrian terrorism (Assad); and Pakistan for Afghanistan (Taliban); as recent examples.

However, when the geopolitical threat stems directly from the enabler, and not the enabled, the Trump Doctrine has a distinctly different and far more encompassing, approach.  Route two goes through leveraging regional allies and partners: See ASEAN and India for ¹China; and France, Poland, Baltic States for ²Russia.  And now President Trump is beginning to shift toward ³Iran.

In each case: China, Russia and Iran, unlike Western media, these powers assemble volumes of research to assist them in understanding the most likely sequence of events President Trump will take.

When we say volumes of research, we indeed mean hundreds of people researching and drafting position documents based upon every scintilla of every deal Donald J Trump has engaged in.  No expenses are spared as these state actors assemble information toward their own strategy to counter the most unpredictable adversary they have faced.

These states fully understand how President Trump intends to utilize economic leverage toward his next national security focus.  As soon as President Trump mentioned he was going to outline a strategy for Iran, all international adversaries immediately began road-mapping their defense.

How do we know?  Well, if you follow the twitches, and you understand the larger dynamic of how Trump weakens his opposition’s position prior to confrontation, you know exactly what to look for.  Example(s):

(Via CNBC) Russia has accounted for oil at £30.1 ($40) a barrel in its budget, finance minister Anton Siluanov said. Oil prices have fluctuated this year, falling below $45 a barrel and going above $59.

Russia has accounted for oil at $40 a barrel in its budget, the country’s finance minister Anton Siluanov told CNBC in a TV interview on Friday.

Brent crude was trading above $57 on Friday, but the Russian minister said that the budget has taken into account price fluctuations.

“In order to minimize price fluctuations on foreign markets we have prepared a budget which is based on a price of forty dollars a barrel. I think that this is a fairly considered and conservative price, which has been factored in for the next three years,” Siluanov told CNBC in a TV interview on Friday.

“Incidentally our balance of payments on our current account is balanced on a price of forty dollars a barrel. Therefore, the percentage of the federal budget from oil and gas revenues has gone down from 60 percent to 40 percent.”

But some analysts have predicted prices could go lower. Global stock builds, rising non-OPEC production and sluggish growth in demand could weigh on the oil price, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report published Thursday.

Meanwhile, OPEC’s production hit the second highest monthly level this year in September. (read more)

Notice OPEC, particularly ‘The Gulf States’ (two-thirds of all production), now a Trump ally, are continuing to driving production. This is in combination with western nations domestic energy policies shifting as a result of Trump withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty.  [*Note* all nationalistic energy activity is driven by the economics of financial viability, not the ruse of planetary climate.]  Sword dancing has benefits.

Meanwhile Venezuela, an OPEC member and also China and Russia’s largest debtor, is in a state of economic crisis and under sanctions from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.  This makes their ability to reach out to the international financial community very, well, challenging.

So what impact is all of this Trumpian shifting of geopolitical economic plates having out in the world of multinational finance?

(Via Bloomberg) The IMF’s steering committee warned that global growth is at risk of faltering in coming years given uncomfortably low inflation and rising geopolitical risks, injecting a cautious note into an otherwise improving economic outlook.

“The recovery is not yet complete, with inflation below target in most advanced economies, and potential growth remains weak in many countries,” the International Monetary and Financial Committee said in a communique released Saturday in Washington.

“Near-term risks are broadly balanced, but there is no room for complacency because medium-term economic risks are tilted to the downside and geopolitical tensions are rising.” (read more)

“Take all the money you can get“…

Q Mr. President, on the Iranian nuclear deal, why not just scrap it altogether now? You threatened to do so. Why not just end it now, withdraw?

THE PRESIDENT: Because we’ll see what happens over the next short period of time. And I can do that instantaneously. I like a two-step process much better.

Q Mr. President, you had said you were going to rip the Iran deal up, and you called it the worst ever.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I may do that. I may do that. The deal is terrible. So what we’ve done is, through the certification process, we’ll have Congress take a look at it, and I may very well do that. But I like a two-step process much better.

Q How long will you give Rex Tillerson to get this new deal? And are strikes on Iran still a possibility if you don’t get what you want?

THE PRESIDENT: We will see what happens with Iran. We’re very unhappy with Iran. They have not treated us with the kind of respect that they should be treating. They should have thanked Barack Obama for making that deal.

They were gone. They were economically gone. He infused $100 [billion] to $150 billion into their economy. He gave them $1.7 billion in cash. And they should be, “Thank you, President Obama.” They didn’t say that.

Q Have you spoken with Theresa May or Emmanuel Macron about the Iranian Deal?

THE PRESIDENT: Yes.

Q What did they say to you? What did you say to them?

THE PRESIDENT: They would love me to stay in, only for one reason: Look at the kind of money that’s being sent. You know, Iran is spending money in various countries.

And I’ve always said it, and I say to them: Don’t do anything. Don’t worry about it. Take all the money you can get. They’re all friends of mine.

Actually, Emmanuel called up, and he talked to me. And I said, look, Emmanuel, they just gave Renault a lot of money. Take their money; enjoy yourselves. But we’ll see what happens.

Iran has to behave much differently. (link)

“Complicated business folks… Complicated business”…

Oct 15 2017

Rocketman May Have Destabilized the Ground in North Korea


Armstrong Economics Blog/North Korea

Re-Posted Oct 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Sources in South Korea are reporting that there was another earthquake in North Korea of a 2.7 magnitude near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. This was the fourth earthquake to hit the region since the last underground nuclear test on September 3rd, 2017. The first earthquake was a 6.3 magnitude. The last North Korea test was a hydrogen bomb. U.S. intelligence reportedly determined the blast was 10 times greater than that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World War II.

Rocketman just may have set in motion a natural disaster. Any more tests could rupture the region and radioactivity could contaminate much of the area.

Meanwhile, Trump has announced he will send ships off the coast of North Korea that will shoot down any missiles he tries to launch. Rocketman seems to be on an insane show of power to prevent his overthrow. If the USA shoots down any missile launch, all his efforts to show power will collapse and that would expose him to an internal coup.

Oct 12 2017

Over 5 Million Government Employees Strike Against Fall of Socialism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

In France, tens of thousands of people went to the streets for the first time in ten years in protest against Macron. All 5.4 million public employees went on strike. The protests are directed against the planned elimination of 120,000 official posts and the end of the welfare state as many see it. In addition, Parliament has authorized President Emanuel Macron to implement the disputed labor market reforms by means of regulations.

Macron’s battle against high unemployment does realistically look to relax the rigid labor law that is one-sided for the worker against companies under the theory of Marxism. Macron realizes that more flexibility must be provided to employers or they will not hire people – plain and simple. He wants to implement his controversial reform through ordinances, or what we would call executive orders in the States and is, therefore, faster than the usual parliamentary legislative process. The parliament had to grant him the right to revise regulations but by law. The law now allows Macron to revise regulations and at the same time fixes the outline of the reforms.Macron promises “more freedom” for companies and at the same time “more security” for workers.

Criticism of the reform comes from trade unions and left parties who cannot see the opposite side of the table. They say Macron has taken an entrepreneur-friendly policy and is dismantling the welfare state. This is what the strikes are all about. Once again, we are looking at the demise of socialism. Do not forget, Communism began in France and it was sold to Marx as a great idea. The idea of the commune emerged in the late 18th century.

Oct 11 2017

Madrid Threatens Imprisonment & Death to Catalonia Leaders?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Oct 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

The Apanish Government is clearly fascist and cannot escape that stigma. The day before the appearance of Carles Puigdemont in front of the regional parliament of Catalonia, the Madrid government has come out and warned the head of the with serious bodily threats that one would expect only from a dictator – not an elected democratic government. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s spokes person, Pablo Casado, came out and rejected all calls for any dialogue in Madrid with Catalonia. “We will not give in, and there is nothing to negotiate with the putschists,” said Casado.

Casados boldly stated publicly: “Anyone who declares it (independence) will end up like the one who declared it 83 years ago.” In Spanish history back in 1934, Lluís Companys i Jover (1882-1940) was the head of  Catalonia’s government, which proclaimed itself as an independent state back then as well. He and the entire regional government were arrested after a few hours by the Spanish army. He was exiled to France in 1939 but would not leave because his son was seriously ill. In 1940, Companys was captured and was handed over by the Nazi Gestapo to the dictator Francisco Franco (1939-1975). He was executed in Barcelona at 6:30 a.m. on October 15, 1940 for seeking Catalonian Independence. Lluís  refused to wear a blindfold, and was taken before a firing squad of Civil Guards barefoot. When they fired, his last words were ‘Per Catalunya!’ (For Catalonia!). Keep in mind that people were imprisoned for even speaking Catalonia’s language.

More than 90% of voters in Catalonia voted for a separation from Spain BECAUSE of Rajoy’s dictatorial attitude. Here is a banknote from the last Independence movement from our collection of the World Monetary System. The opponents of Independence, who had boycotted the vote by a majority, went to the streets of Barcelona on Sunday to protest against the separation. As the EU declines in an economic death spiral, things are only going to get worse over the next two years and Rajoy will see the Spanish outside of Catalonia rise up against his dictatorial-like reign.

For the Rajoy government to threaten killing any public official who again declares independence is just beyond belief. For the EU to standby and say nothing is even more of a disgrace. The federalization of Europe to Brussels now supersede human rights. It’s all about the politicians and power now.

The Euro has still been unable to reach the first key area of important resistance standing at the 125 area. We still see November as the critical turning point and a Panic Cycle as well. There is no doubt that Spain will impact the Euro and indeed may help to push the Italians to also vote to separate as they witness the fascist-style response of the Rajoy government. Taking to key institutions in Europe, what many now want to see is a resignation from Rajoy. He is doing tremendous damage to the image of Europe as a whole.

Meanwhile, there appears to be a run on the European Central Bank (ECB) itself. Banks have tendered this week calling in a total of 21.3 billion euros, which is the highest amount since March. Typically, this runs between 3 to 4 billion Euros. Many see this as rising concerns in Italy of a full blown banking crisis set in motion by the new ECB guidelines. Banks will now have to gradually cover all loans that are now classified as risky. In the case of new unsecured problem loans, 100% coverage is to be achieved after two years, and for new collateralized loan loans no later than seven years.

Others see the run being sparked also by Rajoy. The threats of violence against Catalonia’s leaders brings back the days of Franco and Nazi actions. This is just not going down very well behind the curtain.

Oct 11 2017

Joseph Napoleon Bonaparte & His Exile in New Jersey


Armstrong Economics Blog/America’s Economic History

Re-Posted Oct 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Years ago, while visiting Salamanca, Spain, I was told that Napoleon’s brother abandoned his rule over Spain and made off with a large cache of gold. I know that he fled Spain to New Jersey. Is there any truth to this gold story? If so, what economic impact did he and the gold have in New Jersey?

 TF

ANSWER: Yes, I grew up in New Jersey with the story of Napoleon’s brother living there in exile. He fled the British to America I suppose like Snowden going to Russia. It was on March 30, 1814, when the allied troops reached Paris. Joseph Bonaparte and his family fled at first to Switzerland. He bought an estate at Prangins, between Geneva and Lausanne. However, when Napoleon escaped from Elba in 1815, Joseph returned to Paris to join him. Then after Napoleon’s second abdication, Joseph gallantly offered to change places with his brother so the latter could board the American brig the Commerce, of Charleston, to America. Joseph had chartered that ship for his own escape. Consequently, Joseph left for the United States only when he heard that Napoleon had surrendered to Britain’s Captain Maitland of HMS Bellerophon.

The rumor that Joseph sailed with tons of gold from Spain was another conspiracy theory. However, the Commerce was twice boarded and inspected by the British. Joseph was prepared with fake papers. They worked and he managed escaping detection. He arrived in New York on August 28, 1815 . His Spanish ordinance officer Unzaga, his interpreter James Carret, his cook Francois Parrot, and his secretary Louis Mailliard all accompanied him. The rumor was that Congressman Henry Clay assisted Joseph and provided him with a hotel to stay in. Joseph left his wife Julie and his daughters in Paris. They later moved to Frankfurt and then to Brussels.

Joseph left New York City with the intention of meeting President Madison. Madison sent someone to intercept him and told that a meeting could not take place with the President. Joseph assumed the title of the Count of Survilliers, after a small property he owned near Mortefontaine. He was able to transfer a large part of his fortune to the United States, where he invested it. He rented a house in Philadelphia and bought an estate called Point Breeze in Bordentown, New Jersey. He also bought a large tract of land in upstate New York, to which he made extensive improvements. The latter contained a 1,200 acre lake which Joseph named Lake Diana, after the goddess of the hunt. It is now known as Lake Bonaparte.

Joseph’s home became gathering places for other Napoleonic exiles, including Charles and Henri Lallemand and Charles Lefebvre-Desnouettes. He contributed generously to the French exiles’ Society for the Cultivation of the Vine and the Olive. Nevertheless, Joseph also developed friendships with many prominent Americans, including Nicholas Biddle of the First Bank of the United States, as well as Charles Ingersoll, Stephen Girard, Charles Stewart, and Joseph Hopkinson. He was elected a member of the American Philosophical Society, where he met more of America’s great names.

Joseph Bonaparte’s home in Bordentown burned down though in 1820. When they excavated the site they recovered some 14,000 artifacts. He left with some gold, but there is no real record of how much he took with him into exile. As for his wealth, it was transferred by banks from Switzerland to America at the Bank of the United States as a valued customer of Nicholas Biddle.

Oct 11 2017

Germany Moves Ahead with Nord Stream II


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy

Re-Posted Oct 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

EU lawyers have sided with Germany and effectively told the European Commission their bid to regulate a new Russia-Germany gas pipeline known as- Nord Stream 2 (NS2) is seriously flawed. The now former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder  is working with the Russians to push this project forward. This clearly demonstrates that Germany has the upper-hand in Brussels.

.

Oct 10 2017

Democrats Collapsing with Socialism?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Oct 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I just read Time Magazine that said the Democrats are in the worse shape since 1929. I understand you take no personal credit for all of these amazing forecast you provide on so many topics. You have clearly shown that the world is connected and the global trend is identifiable. Can your computer also forecast that you will make a difference when it comes to push v shove?

ND

ANSWER: Political change is driven by economics. That is fundamental. Time Magazine correctly wrote: “On the surface, the Democratic Party has been united … [b]ut dig an inch deeper and it’s clear the party is divided…” I have warned that the seeds of discontent were rising inside the Democratic Party back in February. In September 2016, I warned that: “By 2018, we just may see a completely different party forged out of the collapse of both the Democrats and Republicans we have come to know.” Trump has recast the Republican Party even though the elites are still in denial and fighting back. Trump beat all their candidates. So even the Republican think this is a fluke.

The people now handling Trump, are doing their best to steer him clear of the Deep State to protect the inner-workings. Trump is finding it very difficult to Drain the Swamp because the Press is defending the Swamp to their last gasp of air like CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post. CNN fell below all the other news programs because of their extreme bias.

 

The numbers are the numbers. The computer has no personal bias. If we simply step back and look at this chart objectively, it is not hard to see why the computer has been forecasting the demise of the Democratic Party which has maintained the mantra that business is evil as are the rich.

That view dominated the union movements of the 20th century and they succeeded in driving quality down and their jobs to leave by boat, train, and plane. New York use to be the biggest port in the United States. Today only a few Cruise lines sail from NYC at Pier 88/90/92 by 55th street. Here is a postcard from 1909 showing all the activity. The unions drove the shipping industry out of New York with this anti-business attitude inspired by the Democrats and Karl Marx.

Socialism is dying and taking the Democratic Party with it. Time Magazine quotes Democrat Tim Ryan is an 8 term Congressman who was even considered as a potential VP with Hillary. He is frustrated with his own party and finds the message with “its fixation on divisive issues and its ‘demonization’ of business owners” is not a message people want to hear any more.

The Democrats are living in the past and their message is not embracing anyone except those Democrats who cannot think for themselves and simply vote because they are Democrat.

This is BY NO MEANS my personal opinion. This is simply based upon the trend in motion. The left is losing around the globe for it has been a hateful agenda that always blames the rich, yet constantly reduces the standard of living for everyone the same a s Communism did while making politicians rich and the elite. This is how empires, nations, and city states collapse into the dust of history.

The Democrats with their hardcore supporters, are simply in a state of denial. The Republican elite are likewise in a state of denial and think Trump was just as passing fad. Both sides will learn the hard way – this is about them. It is time for political change.

I am not sure of the outcome for myself. I can say that the demand for access to our systems is growing unbelievably. Hopefully, if someone will just look at the global trend in motion and realize we need a change, then my job is finished.