Tag Archives: BREXIT

Apr 14 2022

Fed Governor Christopher Waller Predicts We Have Reached Peak Inflation, Here Is What they Will Not Say


Posted originally on the conservative three house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance

Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here.  All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.

The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose.  They did not make a mistake.  The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates.  It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees.  WATCH:

The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year.  The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working.  They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else.  Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year.  By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.

So that’s why they waited.  But here’s the worse part….

All of these U.S. Fed monetary policymakers are in full ideological alignment with the global and central bankers.  They are all following the same Build Back Better agenda and policy instructions.

All of bankers know the shift from ‘dirty energy’, coal, oil, natural gas, will create inflation.  All of the bankers know there is no economic bridge within the plan to shift from oil to their unicorn dust.  All of the bankers know that shutting down oil exploration as a matter of western unified policy will, as a factual matter, destroy the economic systems that rely on energy….. which is to say everything.

All of these bankers know the severity of the inflation crisis this energy shift creates.   None of them do not know.

Everything they are doing is coordinated to assist the climate change agenda.

That’s what this is all about.

Everything is politically motivated.

Apr 14 2022

Producer Price Index Sets New Record at 11.2 Percent Wholesale Inflation, Highest Rate Ever Recorded


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance 

he “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.

Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent.  The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.

The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting.  You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services.  I see support for that thesis within this data.

The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order.  Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences.  Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021.  The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).

The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften.  See Table B, Intermediate goods.  Again, modified to take out the noise:

While the yearly comparison for both processed and unprocessed intermedia goods is eye dropping, in the unprocessed intermediate demand goods, we are starting to see a lessening of monthly price increases.

In essence, prices have been rising so fast and for such an extended period of time, that we are now cycling through the rate of increase and starting to compare it to last year when the rate of increase was originally going high.  As a consequence, the rate of price increase will likely lessen, even though the actual price may still keep climbing within the manufacturing process.

The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.  In addition to the consumer prices reported yesterday, this wholesale price data is showing the most recent increases (March) in fuel and transportation costs.  For the next report these figures should now plateau.

♦ BOTTOM LINE – We have not yet reached PEAK INFLATION – However, the price increases from wholesalers to retailers are now at parity.  The increased price of things coming into the supply chain are now at similar rates of increase when compared to the stuff on the shelves.

Inflation from field to fork is now fully matriculated and embedded in the total economy as a result of two massive price waves (July to October 2021 and November to March 2022).  Those prices will never fall.

Highly consumable goods like food, fuel and energy will remain at approximately the price today for a period of around five months, then we will see the third wave kick in as the new higher harvest prices hit the processors in late summer.

The prices for non-essential durable goods, like cars, electronics, appliances etc. from this moment forth will now be determined by demand.   Highly sought after goods will increase in price as more customers chase fewer products.  However, ordinary or widely available durable goods will likely start to come down in price very soon as inventories climb because consumer spending has prioritized and dropped non essential goods from their shopping lists.

To put it more succinctly:  The stuff we need will cost more. The stuff we don’t need will cost less.

Let’s Go Brandon

Mar 21 2022

Comments & Free Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Mar 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: Well, at least I got the decline accelerating in the Ruble correct and thanks to your models knew the war and commodity cycles were turning up. Getting the fundamentals correct ahead of time is a work in progress and definitely not easy.

But while watching the Ruble crashing into weakness going into the ECM, one could not reverse position and go long the RUB. Heck, nobody could even open new positions and definitely not buy the RUB. All that was allowed was closing already existing positions. And now the RUB was even removed from the trading platform altogether.

So my original trading strategy of shorting and then going long RUB got cut short and max profits throw out the window. So much for free markets.

EM

COMMENT #2: Marty you have proven your model and computer is the key to running governments for the future living with the cycle. It is easy to see why the CIA wanted your model pinpointing Ukraine almost 10 years in advance as the key spot for war. It is also interesting how others prefer not to ever mention you for your work is not opinion like everyone else. I really hope you succeed in securing Socrates for the world long-term. We all can learn so much.

All the best from Poland

and thanks for the conference that you did here in Warsaw

VA

REPLY: The free markets are not so free. During the Civil War, even President Lincoln went after trading gold and argued those people were making money off of every battle. The EU wanted to take trading the Euro away from London because of BREXIT. The people running these governments will NEVER honor the free markets when they go against them.

Yes, it was very nice to meet everyone in Warsaw. I had not been there before. I am doing my best to make sure Socrates continues beyond my shelf life. The problem is that the world is run by the seat of its pants and it is always based upon bias, prejudice, and power-plays driven by ego. I think some people just need to have an enemy and no matter what changes, they ignore that to keep the hatred ongoing.

There are people who still call China Communist even though there is private ownership which is the opposite of communism. They will continue to hate China no matter what and that in turn only invokes a response to counter that trend. Biases like that prevent us from ever moving forward and society is at times like a scratched record playing the same track over and over again.

Feb 20 2022

Canadian Liberal Triggered By The Flag Hatred Inspired By Trudeau


Posted originally bt HodgeTwins  on Rumble on February 19, 2022 27,899 Views

Feb 20 2022

Canadian Parliament Protest Schwab, Trudeau, & WEF


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Feb 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Canadian Parliament shuts down probably the most important question concerning treason against the Canadian people. Stating that Schwab has bragged about infiltrating the Canadian government and naming those involved with Schwab after he has openly bragged about this accomplishment, Parliament shut down the question to make sure nobody would answer.

Then the notorious corrupt Liberal MP had the open audacity to claim this is misinformation when it is openly published even at Harvard University, one must wonder what are his connections and how much has he received in gifts, political donations, and favored status from bankers to block any such questions.

These people have betrayed their own country. Schwab’s agenda to eliminate even paper currency was to take place by 2024. But COVID is backfiring which has resulted in bringing this forward to 2023 just after the US elections.

This is the image of Canada merging from the outside. Even Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò has come out in support of the Truckers.

Schwab was not kidding and it was not the misinformation. The Emergency Act will become permanent in Canada. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland intends to make permanent the invasive financial surveillance system introduced as part of the “Emergencies Act” to absolutely destroy and crush the civil liberties protests and to be able to defund all opposition. Freeland is also a Young Global Leader graduate who is also loyal to Schwab. They have been indoctrinated with an authoritarian view of powers and Canada is to have its sovereignty surrendered to Schwab’s global vision. She declared:

“As of today, all crowdfunding platforms, and the payment service providers they use, must register with FINTRAC and must report large and suspicious transactions to FINTRAC (Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada).” Freeland added: “This will help mitigate the risk that these platforms receive illicit funds; increase the quality and quantity of intelligence received by FINTRAC; and make more information available to support investigations by law enforcement into these illegal blockades.”

“This is about following the money. This is about stopping the financing of these illegal blockades. We are today serving notice, if your truck is being used in these illegal blockades your corporate accounts will be frozen.”

Trudeau has called in the police and they are to attack the protesters with brutal force. Leaks of communications have shown that the RCMP currently in Ottawa is to assist in the crackdown on peaceful protesters allegedly brag about using brutal force in a leaked group chat according to Rebel News. He has also called in police from Quebec who will defend him against the English-speaking truckers. This was Schwab’s and Canada’s Tiananmen Square. Canada may now have only until the 1st week of April.

This is a battle to the death for Schwab’s Great Reset. Canada MUST be driven into submission and this is critical to the ideas of Schwab and his vision for the world.

Schwab has promised these politicians dictatorial powers with the end of all democratic processes. Schwab is pushing the design of Europe upon the rest of the world whereby the head of state NEVER stands for election, neither does the European Commission which makes all laws and to fool the people that they are still relevant, they get to vote for an MP who has no power to make or overrule laws crafted by the Commission. This is the system they intend to impose of the world and politicians will NEVER again need to worry about being voted out of office. This is why governments are now protecting Schwab. He has promised them a world void of any power of the people to vote them out of power. What Schwab has not considered is that he is boxing in people to the point the only solution will be a revolution.

Dec 17 2021

The Fed Has Spoken


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Dec 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Federal Open Market Committee plans to taper its asset purchasing program by $30 billion per month. Starting in January, the central bank will begin buying $60 billion in bonds monthly, citing “inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market.”

As for interest rates, the Fed is considering as many as three rate hikes in 2020, followed by two additional hikes in 2024. This comes after the Fed artificially lowered rates to near zero for the longest amount of time in the history of the Federal Reserve.

“With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment,” the central bank stated. Unemployment reached a post-pandemic low of 4.2% last month, but nearly 7 million Americans are still unemployed.  “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement continued. Now, the central bank believes inflation will somehow reach 2.6% in 2020, with core inflation dropping to 2.7%.

The central bank sees reduced GDP growth this year, dropping the forecast to 5.5% from 5.9%. GDP in 2022 is now estimated to reach 4%, and 2.2% in 2023.

Nov 3 2021

Musk Offers to End World Hunger Under One Stipulation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Nov 3, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

If billionaires paid their fair share, we could allegedly solve world hunger. How?

David Beasley, director of the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP), called out billionaires such as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos for not donating funds to solve world hunger. “Just $6 billion could keep 42 million people from dying,” Beasley claimed. Musk took to Twitter with a bold offer — he would personally donate $6 billion if the WFP could explain precisely how they would spend the funds. Furthermore, the richest man in the world is asking the WFP to provide a public record of exactly how the money will be spent.

David Beasley replied to Musk, “Headline not accurate. $6B will not solve world hunger, but it WILL prevent geopolitical instability, mass migration and save 42 million people on the brink of starvation. An unprecedented crisis and a perfect storm due to Covid/conflict/climate crises.” In other words, $6 billion will not solve world hunger as the people managing that sum of money could never keep it out of their pockets. Musk replied to Beasley with a link to an ongoing, unpunished, child sex abuse scandal where UN “peacekeepers” abused hungry children. The details are too grotesque to publish here, but make no mistake about it — the UN is not an entity intent on saving the world. They had to turn down a generous donation of $6 billion because they knew that they could never report the paper trail, and the results would likely be a request for more money.

Oct 29 2021

The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Delay


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Oct 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

(Nord Stream Pipeline)

European Union leaders are scrambling for solutions to the energy crisis, but their feared friend from the East has reminded them that a solution exists. According to the Associated Press, gas prices in the EU have spiked to 95 euros from about 19 euros per megawatt-hour in the past year. Around 90% of gas is imported to the EU, and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said that the only long-term solution is to invest in renewable energy. “And in the long term, there is only one solution — invest more in renewable energy so we are less vulnerable to price fluctuations for fossil fuels,” he said.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blamed the Green Deal plan for higher prices, which aims to reduce greenhouse emissions by 55% by 2030, with the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Some leaders are pointing to the use of nuclear energy, such as France, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. However, the 27-nation bloc has not designated nuclear power as a sustainable investment yet.

(Nord Stream 2 Pipeline)

In comes Putin and the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would carry much-needed gas from Russia to the EU beneath the Baltic Sea. “If the German regulator gives approval tomorrow, supplies of 17.5 billion cubic meters of gas will start the day after tomorrow,” Putin said. The Russian president has previously criticized the EU for not signing long-term contracts and failing to work with Russia on energy trade. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that relying on gas from Russia makes the bloc “vulnerable,” but it seems that they are already vulnerable and in a worsening situation with no solution in sight. EU energy ministers are set to meet in December, where they are likely to kick around solutions while ignoring the one that is a pipeline away.

Oct 29 2021

China Rationing Diesel


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Oct 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

China has begun to ration fuel amid the ongoing energy crisis. As reported by the BBC, trucks in China may only fill their tanks with 100 liters (10% capacity) of diesel, with other areas reportedly only allowing 25 liters. The city of Fuyang is limiting purchases and charging drivers a surcharge of up to 300 yuan to fill up their tanks. The fuel shortage will affect both domestic and international goods as trucks simply cannot drive to their destinations. Despite surging demand, all fossil fuels are in tight supply and have seen drastic upticks in price. Jeremy Stevens, Chief China Economist at Standard Bank, told the BBC from Beijing that companies have already begun using diesel generators to maintain factory operations. World leaders are urging this instant switch to renewable energy and net-zero emissions, but the technology does not currently exist to power the world. The energy crisis will contribute to supply shortages worldwide.

Oct 29 2021

The Chaos of Climate Change – Just Add Nuclear


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Oct 28, 2021 by Martin Armstrong