U.S. Chamber of Commerce Admits No Common Ground With Trump on Immigration – Chamber Demands Open-Ended Immigration Must Be Maintained… ion


The open border position of the crony-capitalistic U.S. Chamber of Commerce is only one of the issues that showcases the hidden agenda of their heavily lobbied influence upon Republicans in Congress.  The CoC spends hundreds of millions writing legislation and paying off the UniParty to deliver on their multinational corporate agenda.

In an interview today the Chamber admits their immigration agenda has no common ground with the President Trump administration.  CTH has pointed out this issue for many years, however more people are awake now.

WASHINGTON DC – The Chamber of Commerce admitted Thursday that it is struggling to find common ground with President Trump on immigration, and so far hasn’t been able to find a “sweet spot” on the controversial issue.

“We don’t have a policy paper on immigration. It’s a controversial area,” Randy Johnson, the Chamber’s senior vice president for labor and immigration policy, said at a press briefing Thursday. “We’re trying to figure out where our interests align with the Trump administration.”

He added later that, “Immigration across the board, with some limitations, is a benefit to this country and that is the position of the Chamber.” In contrast, the Trump administration has sought not only to stop illegal immigration but has backed a plan to cut legal immigration in half.

Johnson said the Chamber, the national largest business trade association, was nevertheless “ready to engage with the Trump administration” on the subjects such a merit-based immigration. The chamber would not budge on family-based immigration though, he said.

Johnson said he hoped the president did not end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy that allowed children who were brought to the country illegally to remain, though he said the legal principles behind the policy were shaky. (read more)

“Family-based immigration” is code-speak for open borders.  Under the principles behind family migration, once a single family member arrives in the U.S. they can then bring every member of their family, even extended family by marriage, into the U.S.

This process is also called “chain migration”, because there is essentially no end to the unlimited access brought about by relationship.

On DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arivals), the U.S. CoC is a big proponent of amnesty and open borders.  The CoC wrote, and then spent hundreds of millions paying congress for, the 2013 “Gang-of-Eight” bill within the Senate.  The CoC held the same position on DAPA (the DACA parents).

However, DAPA was found to have been unconstitutional executive branch overreach by the U.S. Supreme Court.  If DAPA was an illegal Obama executive action, DACA is also.  The difference between outcomes is simply that DAPA was challenged successfully by states; DACA has yet to be challenged in court.

Report: White House Weighing Mexican Remittance Fee To Pay for Southern Security Wall…


This is a little funny.  Back in 2015 we originally shared an easy peasy way to pay for the border wall by charging a 4% remittance fee on wire transfers to Mexico.  With more than $25 billion (2015) in Western Union transfers, more than Mexico’s entire oil and energy sector combined, a 4% U.S. surcharge on remittances creates $1 billion revenue annually.

The U.S. Treasury already has a similar process in place for Cuban Remittances and Western Union compliance affidavits.  The remittances to Mexico have now jumped to $27 billion in 2016.  Making the remittance fee even more feasible.

WASHINGTON – President Trump is mulling a tax on cash transfers between immigrants in the U.S. and their relatives in Mexico as a way to fund his promised border wall without forcing American taxpayers to open their wallets, according to sources familiar with the proposal.

Trump first floated the idea of taxing or halting person-to-person wire transfers, known as remittances, during his bid for the White House. A two-page memo released by his campaign last April described a plan “to compel Mexico to pay for the wall” by preventing immigrants from wiring money outside of the U.S. unless they can prove their legal status to law enforcement authorities.

Because the Mexican economy has become so dependent on wages sent home by migrant workers, which surpassed oil revenues as its leading source of foreign income in 2015, Trump said he could convince the country’s leaders to make a “one-time payment of $5-10 billion” toward his border wall by threatening to stop the annual flow of billions of dollars from the U.S. to Mexico in the form of cash transfers.

In 2016, Mexican immigrants living in the U.S. sent $27 billion to family members and friends in their native country.  (read more)

[2016] Even if President Donald Trump does not renegotiate any of the $50 Billion trade imbalance we have with Mexico; and if you only target the remittance dollars ($25 billion in 2015) which are vital for the Mexican economy, you can see how easy it would be to get Mexico to pay for the border wall.

Federal Budgets are fixed on ten year projections. In order for an expenditure to be revenue neutral the revenue must meet or exceed the expenditure over a 10-year period.

If you take the $25 Billion in outbound remittances (2015), now $27 Billion (2017), and you apply a small 4% surcharge for each wire transfer to Mexico, that surcharge would net $1+ Billion/year.   Multiplied over ten years (budget requirement) that means $10 Billion into the U.S. treasury from the surcharge fee.

$10 Billion in revenue.

Missing Since Bannon Left The White House…


Just pointing out something….

Think about it.  Two Weeks. Crickets, nothing, total silence.  Ever since Steve Bannon left the White House.

Don’t just think casually about it.  Think about the specific stories she was pushing and the ramifications therein.  Not just ramifications to what is pushed by Breitbart media and why; but also Circa News and Sinclair corporate media.  Always question everything.

We suspected she was being fedcontrolled opposition–  we didn’t know who.


When Will People Learn Career Politicians Are Anti-Democracy

It is amazing that people keep voting for career politicians every time and then are dissatisfied every time. Now Reuters is reporting that most French voters are now dissatisfied with Emmanuel Macron’s performance. The latest poll shows a sharp decline for Macron who won a landslide. The poll revealed that Macron’s “dissatisfaction rating” has risen to 57%, from 43% in July.

USA & EU Differences in Monetary Policy


QUESTION: Sir,

     In March 2013 Cyprus performed a forced loan through their banking system of about 50%. You have warned that if they do it there, they will do it here. Are trading accounts safe?
Respectfully
 DK
ANSWER: The Cyprus event was instigated by Germany’s fixation with its hyperinflation and thus they are fighting that battle whereas the USA is still fighting the Great Depression and deflation. Both of these experiences dictate the policy divergences between the USA and the EU. Thus, the deflation imposed in Cyrus is more likely in Europe than the USA.

The Coming CONTAGION – CDS Sales Double from 2016



The issue of credit default swaps (CDS) in 2017 is running at twice that of last year reflecting rising concerns of another coming crash. The number of hedge funds and banks dealing with highly sensitive credit derivatives has reached almost $30 billion in 2017 up from only about $ 15 billion in 2016 and just $ 10 billion back in 2015. The credit default insurance, which is supposed to pay certain amount of money a particular company or government registers its insolvency. The trading in CDS was blamed by numerous observers for creating the financial crisis that became a widespread contagion in 2008 in particular. 

Hedge funds are now investing in these risky securities in order to achieve returns on the order of magnitude that are difficult to achieve in the current market environment due low interest rates. High-profile funds such as Apollo, Brigade Capital and Blue Mountain are among those who bought tranches with terms of 2-3 years, according to the FT. The real danger with this instruments is that the next crash will be far worse in the bond markets than at any time since 1931 and the prospects of actually being able to collect on these time-bombs is more unlikely since the entire system will freeze. The crisis is one stemming from liquidity and failure to understand the contagion will lead to significant losses. 

The pending view on the stock market remains extremely bearish among professional since their historical view is very myopic and their models rarely extend back before 1971. The was the entire reason Long-Term Capital Management collapsed and set off a crisis that became a contagion. Because they could not liquidate positions in Russian debt, they were forecast to start selling investments around the world to raise cash to cover losses in Russia. Therefore, you can have a great solid investment in an area unrelated to the bond crisis, yet that investment can tank regardless of the fundamentals.

This is the REAL RISK that we face – the CONTAGION. This is why we absolutely must keep and eye on the Global Market Watch to pick up on shifts in trends being caused by directional changes in capital flows. This will NEVER be forecast by fundamentals. The words written by Herbert Hoover explaining the CONTAGION that resulted in the Great Depression are relevant today. Replace the events with 2010 and the Greek bond crisis and they still apply.

 

The Global Market Watch shows you the entire world at a glance. This is the best tool that shows when a CONTAGION is starting for it is monitoring everything that moves.

China Recommits To U.N. Sanctions Against North Korea…


Things are going swimmingly, strategically, seemingly according to plan.  When the full measure of history allows time to review, observers will note the strategic victory was achieved on August 5th, 2017; that’s the original date when Russia and China agreed to the U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea.  That first, historic, Russia and China U.N. Security Council vote against North Korea came as a result of eight months of assembled economic leverage created by President Donald Trump.

As a result of this ongoing strategy, every time North Korea’s Kim Jong-un takes an action, President Trump hits China’s Xi Jinping with an additional economic squeeze.  As Beijing feels the squeeze, they tell Kim Jong-un to act. Every time Kim Jong-un acts, President Trump squeezes Beijing with more economic pressure.  Wash-Rinse-Repeat.

Communist Beijing has boxed themselves into this inescapable cycle. The only way out of the box is to concede and lay the DPRK defeat at the feet of Kim Jong-un.  The conceding will evidence itself when Beijing inevitably calls for ‘Six Party Talks‘.  Today:

(Via Associated Press) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says his country will “fully and completely” abide by U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions on North Korea.

Wang told reporters Wednesday China would work with other members of the council on how best to react to North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday.

He says, “We will make a necessary response.”

While acknowledging long-standing ties between the Pyongyang and Beijing, Wang says China was compelled to act to guard against further instability. China accounts for around 90 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade and has provided limited diplomatic cover for its actions, despite growing increasingly frustrated at continued provocations.

The latest sanctions hit Chinese businesses hard by way of a ban on North Korean exports of coal, iron, lead and seafood products, together worth over $1 billion for a country with total exports valued at just $3 billion last year. (link)

REMINDER Looking at the geopolitical landscape, and the known and identified calendar of upcoming events, we discover a likely Trump Administration timeline to achieve their goal:

♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.

♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year.  Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.

So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.

::::smiling:::::

Yup.

Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Prime Minister Narendra Modi hugs.

Prime Minister Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship.  China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Bollywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.

Those who doubt Trump’s strategic economic approach with India only need to look at how the U.S. has given Pakistan the responsibility to bring tribal extremists in Afghanistan to the table of negotiation.  China and Pakistan are allied via massive Chinese investment, while the U.S. has now allied in common principle with India who is invested in Afghanistan.

Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.

Strategery.

::::still smiling::::

Again, President Trump holds all the economic cards.  Just look at what he did to neuter Russia’s economy when everyone was paying attention to the bouncing laser dot on the wall.  The American and Western media missed it, but President Trump moved the entire geopolitical world via a strategic energy platform.

Sip this next paragraph slowly to enjoy:

From OPEC (Saudi Summit) to the EU and Baltic States (Poland Pre-G20); to North African energy development via President Macron (Libya and Mali); to walking away from the Paris Climate agreement; to discussions with Theresa May on a bilateral trade deal; to massive shipments of coal to U.K. and France; to closing a deal to deliver Ireland massive amounts of Texas LNG; to our own internal U.S. energy production policy with pipelines, Oil, Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) etc.

President Trump used all of those “allied” relationships to lower global energy prices.

The bigger part of the ‘big-missed-picture‘ was how that energy strategy impacted the economies of adversaries like Russia and Iran and simultaneously supported the larger America-First economic and geopolitical space.

Obviously President Trump thinks seriously long-term, and really BIG picture.

President Trump thinks so far out in front of his opposition and detractors they genuinely cannot fathom the sequential logic behind the day-to-day granular activity.  Thinking this way is what caught China off-guard.  They did not anticipate the scope of the geopolitical economic squeeze –OUTLINED HERE– that President Trump could initiate.

Yes, in large part this is what makes President Trump so enjoyable to watch politically. Just like the American media, our international adversaries and competitors have no reference point for a U.S. President that is entirely independent from influence.  They continue to underestimate his effectiveness and ability to impact them economically.

::::Yup, smiling::::

So we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly desperate China.

China will structure the DPRK talking points, the “terms”, to set up the meetings.  This is part of how China is allowed to save face and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.

The six party talks will essentially be a modern Marshall Plan of sorts for the DPRK and Southeast Asia.  Geopolitical allies Japan, South Korea, and The United States -vs- China, Russia and North Korea.  All six nations will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy, deconflicting Southeast Asia, and reducing tension.

Eventually President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the Beijing patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.

Meanwhile, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to the representatives who all line up with their requests.

President Trump’s golf partner, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along.  The real negotiations that matter will be between the U.S. Russia and China.  Russia’s angle will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again.  China’s priority will be economic, with tough trade discussion as they negotiate to retain as much of the $320 billion U.S. trade surplus as possible and retain their one-road/one-belt initiative.

The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; a group of nations promising economic assistance (size TBD), and some official enterprise of ASEAN partners enters as an agency to oversee nuclear compliance under carefully negotiated terms.  Big Panda (Xi Jinping) promises the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein.  Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.

That’s essentially the way the economic and national security future looks today.

Then again, it might get brighter.

After all, this is President Donald Trump we’re talking about.

Germany Increased Tax Collections 4.3% 1st Half 2017


The Germany has posted a stunning 4.3% rise in tax revenues during the first half of 2017. I have warned that while the ECB keeps buying government bonds to “stimulate” the economy, they keep trying to sterize the expansion by raising taxes and hunting people for taxes.

They do not seem to grasp that injecting money by buying government debt and then raising taxes on individuals will not stimulate the economy. Nearly 10 years of this insane policy and we have less than 2% inflation. They seem incapable of comprehending that simply increasing the money supply does not produce inflation. The only thing that counts is the increase in net disposable income.

If I create $100 and give it to you and then demand you give me back $90, did I really increase the moeny supply by $100 or just $10? It seems that common sense is just rare these days.

The Fall Before the Rise


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I find it fascinating that your computer projected August as the turning point this year and the week of 09/04. I suppose that could be a set up for the August being a high close and a crash beings in September as it seems always to unfold be it 1929, 1987, 0r 1998. Do you have any idea why a crash seems to come always in September and October?

This has played out so far as you laid out in Hong Kong. I think I will come to Orlando as well.

JH

ANSWER: That is an interesting question people have been asking all my life. There is no real fundamental explanation why wars perk up in August and markets tend to crash in September-October. The joke has been the family spent too much on vacation and so they sell stock in September to pay the bills. It is definitely seasonal.

Remember one major thing. This is the move that has to suck people in on the wrong side in order to create the energy to swing back in the true direction. This is true in stocks as well as in gold. I have warned that we can get a potential HUGE false move, which can even be the biggest in history. The bigger the false move, the bigger the REAL move.

I have a feeling this is going to be a very interesting WEC in Orlando.

Gold & the Dow


QUESTION:  Dear Martin,

I have been following your blog for years now. I am not a trader or financial person in any sense of the word but I take a keen interest in the economy and try to keep myself educated re current science theories for my own interest. I love your blog and your fundamental theory re cycles and how the West thinks differently to the East. I feel you have given me an an insight into how the world functions in a way i couldn’t hope to find else where and you generously put your blog out for free which is a public service that I am deeply grateful for so thank you very much for that. I am English and live in England and I have a very modest amount to invest and i wondered if you would recommend either (a)waiting for gold to change trend and investing in that and or (b)waiting for the Dow to possibly go through 23000 and invest in that.

 

ANSWER: There is little doubt that we stand at the threshold to some chaotic period ahead. I have warned governments behind the curtain of what is to come. It seems as if at times I am the only person who has ever read a history book. I point out that 99% of all revolutions begin with the abuse of taxes. No matter how many times I show this is the trend and all the countless rebellions in ancient, medieval, and modern times (within the last 309 years) such as the American Revolution (no taxation without representation) or France (let them eat cake), I am just one person and I cannot move a mountain. So I do this blog as a public service realizing that we must crash and burn and thus it is up to us at that brief opening in the clouds to push for the freedom we deserve for our posterity.

We know where the trend changes from gold at 1362 to the Dow at 23,000. We have not yet missed anything. The boat has not left the dock. Patience is required along with a clear head. Never act emotionally. Be clam and poised. Remember there must always be the false move before the slingshot move.

It is the fool who rushes in assuming he will miss the move before key points are exceeded. That is when losses are always the greatest. Rallies in gold are up to the next bank of Reversals as is support in the Dow. Keep in mind that September is a turning point in gold and August was key for the Dow. The two are not yet aligned. That may not unfold until next year.