Monthly Archives: June 2019

Jun 9 2019

CNN Iowa Poll: Creepy 24%, Crazy 16%, Dopey 14%, Spank Me 7%, and How 15%…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on June 8, 2019 by 

Making the assumption that Iowa voters are the most engaged current Democrats; and considering that all candidates have spent the most time there so far; it’s worth taking a look at how Iowa Democrat voters are aligning with their field of candidates.

According to the latest CNN Poll of likely Iowa voters, Creepy Joe leads the way with 34%; followed by Crazy Bernie at 16%; Indian Liz sneaking up with 15%; Dopey Buttigieg jumping to the four position with 14%; and media darling Spank-Me Harris at 7%.

(Full Poll pdf Here)

All other candidates, including Booker and Beto, are not attracting much Iowa support beyond their campaign team paychecks.  Down twinkles…

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Joe Biden leads as the top choice of likely participants in the first-in-the-nation Iowa Democratic caucuses, but his advantage there is smaller than the one he has held in recent national polling, even as just five candidates out of a field of 23 crack 5% support.

A new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted by Selzer and Co., finds Biden leads among both those who plan to participate in the caucuses the traditional, in-person way, or via a new process for caucusing virtually.

Overall, 24% say they favor the former vice president, with 16% backing Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 15% Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and 14% South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. California Sen. Kamala Harris rounds out the five over 5% with 7% support.

Biden has regularly been above 30% in national polling since announcing his candidacy in April, with his nearest competitor trailing by double-digits. But there hasn’t been high-quality polling in Iowa since his entry to the race. (read more)

Obviously it’s still early, but barring an unforeseen late entry, it looks like the Iowa final tier is going to be Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris.

Statistically, barring some unpredictable event, however the polling data aligns July 1st, 2019 through August 1st, 2019, will be the exact same line-up outcome when the first 2020 primary is held seven months later. It won’t change much (if at all) between August 1st 2019, and the 2020 Iowa caucus.

The DNC has a LOW-ENERGY problem, and a lack of authenticity problem, and they know it. Yes, it’s still a hot mess….

.

Knowing it’s likely the ♦UniParty DNC is following a similar ♦UniParty RNC strategy, we can combine the personal characteristics and political traits together and contrast them against the similarly sized GOP field in 2016. Here’s the way it looks:

  • ♦Governor Jeb Bush was to 2016 as…. Vice-President Joe Biden is to 2020
  • Senator Ted Cruz was to 2016…. as Senator Elizabeth Warren is to 2020
  • Governor John Kasich was to 2016… as Senator Bernie Sanders is to 2020
  • Senator Marco Rubio was to 2016… as Mayor Pete Buttigieg is to 2020
  • Dr. Ben Carson was to 2016… as Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke is to 2020
  • Governor Rick Perry was to 2016…. as Senator Kamala Harris is to 2020
  • Senator Lindsey Graham was to 2016 as… Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is to 2020
  • Governor Mike Huckabee was to 2016… as Senator Corey Booker is to 2020
  • Senator Rand Paul was to 2016…. as Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is to 2020
  • Governor Chris Christie was to 2016 as… Governor J. Hickenlooper is to 2020
  • Governor Scott Walker was to 2016 as… Governor Jay Inslee is to 2020
  • Senator Rick Santorum was to 2016…. as Senator Andrew Yang is to 2020
  • Governor George Pataki was to 2016 as…. John Delaney is to 2020
  • Governor Bobby Jindal was to 2016…. as Julian Castro is to 2020
  • Carly Fiorina was to 2016 as…. Senator Amy Klobuchar is to 2020
  • Governor Jim Gilmore was to 2016 as… Rep. Tim Ryan is to 2020
  • Gas Station Sushi was to 2016 as… Eric Swalwell is to 2020
  • Eating Steak with a Spork was to 2016 as… Michael Bennet is to 2020
  • Drinking a bucket of sweat was to 2016 as… Steve Bullock is to 2020
  • Inhaling a fly was to 2016 as…. Marianne Williamson is to 2020
  • Free Chinese WiFi was to 2016…. as Wayne Messam is to 2020

Resistance is futile…

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Jun 9 2019

Beijing Summons U.S. Tech Leaders to Summit With Threats of “Punishment” if They Follow Trump…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 8, 2019 by 

Interesting, albeit not surprising, report from the New York Times after they are debriefed by a group of U.S. tech industry executives about a compliance meeting in China.

The Beijing regime of Chairman Xi Jinping summoned leaders from the top of U.S. tech industry companies and informed them of consequences for complying with U.S. laws that relate to black-listed Chinese industry; ie. Hauwei.  It will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out.

Beijing is counting on the far-left anti-American ideology within Silicon Valley to create a communist economic alliance on U.S. soil that will work against the interests of the American people.

SAN FRANCISCO — The Chinese government this past week summoned major tech companies including Microsoft and Dell from the United States and Samsung of South Korea, to warn that they could face dire consequences if they cooperate with the Trump administration’s ban on sales of key American technology to Chinese companies, according to people familiar with the meetings.

Held on Tuesday and Wednesday, the meetings came soon after Beijing’s announcement that it was assembling a list of “unreliable” companies and individuals.

[…] The meetings this week were led by China’s central economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, and attended by representatives from its Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, who addressed their remarks to a broad range of companies that export goods to China, according to the two people familiar with the gatherings.

[…] More broadly, the warnings also seemed to be an attempt to forestall a fast breakup of the sophisticated supply chains that connect China’s economy to the rest of the world. Production of a vast array of electronic components and chemicals, along with the assembly of electronic products, makes the country a cornerstone of the operations of many of the world’s largest multinational companies.

[…] To those from the United States, they warned that the Trump administration’s move to cut off Chinese companies from American technology had disrupted the global supply chain, adding that companies that followed the policy could face permanent consequences. The Chinese authorities also hinted that firms should use lobbying to push back against the government’s moves.

[…] Chinese officials explicitly warned companies that any move to pull production from China that seemed to go beyond standard diversification for security purposes could lead to punishment, according to the two people.

[…] The Chinese officials told companies from outside the United States that as long as they kept up their current relationships and continued to supply Chinese companies normally, they would face no adverse consequences. (read full article)

Remarkably, this approach is exactly what CTH has predicted for over two years.  It was/is an easy prediction to see where this was heading because the severity Beijing’s economic dependence is their Achilles heal.  Anything that begins to impede the ability of China to continue their world economic conquest, immediately becomes a threat to the communist regime.

Once a threat is identified, they are defined as a zero-sum adversary who must be controlled or destroyed.  In this example the technology industry writ large is the threat.  If U.S. companies do not comply with the demands of China all of their foreign assets will be confiscated by the government and the organization is labeled as a threat to the state.

…”Chinese officials explicitly warned companies … any move to pull production from China that seemed to go beyond standard diversification for security purposes could lead to punishment”…

Not much for subtlety and nuance, eh?

A year ago Politico presented an interesting article about how Chinese spies are conducting extensive surveillance operations in/around the San Francisco bay area.  They were prescient with the warning: “As Silicon Valley continues to take over the world, the local spy war will only get hotter—and the consequences will resonate far beyond Northern California.”

Indeed the depth of the Chinese influence is becoming increasingly clear.  In Washington DC Congressman Justin Amash has been pushing heavily for President Trump’s impeachment.  In addition to being an elected representative, Mr. Amash operates a manufacturing company in China. [link]  These positions are directly related.

Keep an eye-out for those who raise the strongest objections toward the Trump administration confronting China; there’s almost a guarantee the scale of opposition will be in direct alignment to their financial interests in Beijing.

Yes, as with all things Trump, the president is likely to expose much more than just political opposition based on ideology.  President Trump’s America-First stance is putting the spotlight on all those politicians who bet against our nation, took the indulgences from a happy Panda, and swore a greater allegiance to their net worth.

We live in remarkable times…

Jun 9 2019

Trump Doctrine – Border and Migration Agreement With Mexico Likely to Produce Significant Results…


Re-Posted from The Conservative tree house on June 8, 2019 by 

The border and migration “agreement” with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won’t take any action, well, don’t underestimate the dynamic President Trump just put into play.

Financial investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management. If you don’t think Mexico will follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.

Overlooked by most of the financial pundits President Trump has pre-positioned risk management actuaries with the basis for their analysis and internal investment advice. In a similar move last year, President Trump suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement (G20 summit in Argentina). After several months and a 150 page initial agreement of principle, China walked away from their prior promises and  terms.  The tariffs against China were immediately implemented at the previous rate.

That China example with tariffs is now the baseline for all multinational investment to consider as they review their current exposure in Mexico. If any financial investor (bank or corporation) believes Mexico will not adhere to the border/migration agreement, then by extension they are accepting/predicting the Mexican tariffs will take effect in 90-days.

Put another way… President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.

Given the less than stellar follow-through on prior promises by Mexico; and given Trump’s absolute follow-through on China; those business interests who don’t trust the Mexican government to deliver on the new promise will now use the 90-day window to re-position their exposure or exit completely.

Those interests who cannot withdraw (Ex. BMW recent $1B investment); or those interests who choose to put their trust in Mexico to deliver (likely against the advice of risk mgmt); will now start a process of engagement with Mexico requesting & demanding promises from the Lopez-Obrador administration to ensure they follow through.

Do not underestimate the power of a few dozen multinational banks and corporations calling Lopez-Obrador and his ministers demanding assurances; concrete assurances; of their follow-through. This puts massive pressure on Mexico to comply with the agreement.

Failure of the Mexican government to follow-through, isn’t as simple as breaking a political promise (ie. another broken promise etc.). This time if Mexico doesn’t follow-through, and if Trump does follow-through in 90 days, it’s not a political issue, it’s an economic issue.  In 90-days, the tenuous Mexican economy could collapse overnight.

This time it isn’t politics; or a broken political promise; no, this time it’s business. A high-stakes multi-billion business issue with multiple downstream consequences. That’s the difference with business-centric President Trump in the White House; he is not a politician.

It is easy to see the enforcement leverage President Trump just created.

This is what an apex business predator does to his/her economic or financial adversary. All the responsibility for action is on the other party. If Mexico fails, Trump wins. If Mexico succeeds, Trump wins. See how that works?

Now think about President Trump’s economic adversaries: U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Tom Donohue, The Business Roundtable, Koch Brothers, Wall Street multinationals, etc. Who are they going to pressure to protect their investment?

President Trump’s opposition cannot call Trump and attempt pressure because: (A) Trump doesn’t care about their opinion (see China example); and (B) he’s actually given the Wall St crowd what they were originally demanding, a suspension of pending tariffs.

The pressure for action is no longer on POTUS. 100% of the responsibility is on Mexican President AMLO.  If the issue isn’t corrected quickly, in 90-days the tariffs start…. And go read Trump’s deal-making history, again referencing the China example…. He won’t start all over again at 5%, he’ll start right at the place he would have been in 90-days, 20%.

Now put yourself in the position of a CEO and/or CFO of a multinational corporation with structural investment in Mexico. [Foreign corporations, not just American business interests.] Those who stay will be vested in ensuring Lopez-Obrador follows through.

Economic security is national security. Once again we see the ‘Trump Doctrine‘ at work. President Trump using economic strength as leverage to achieve national security objectives and solve national security problems.

Additionally, there are reports Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S.T.R Robert Lighthizer were against the Mexico tariffs. Of course they were; they should be. Mnuchin and Lighthizer are protecting their work product, the USMCA trade deal.

President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary and top trade advisor opposed his surprise plan to impose new tariffs on Mexican imports, according to a source close to the White House who said the idea was pushed by immigration hawk Stephen Miller. (read more)

However, what these knuckle-headed media miss is when you overlay the Trump Doctrine, you can clearly see President Trump is looking at a bigger picture and again applying a larger more comprehensive use of economic position to achieve both objectives: (1) passage of USMCA; and (2) border security.

On the economic/trade side President Trump has created a 90-day window for the USMCA to pass in the Mexican senate and Canadian parliament. On the national security side -remember, the tariffs were being approached as a national security issue, not part of a trade pact- the national security issue remains a concern in place even after the USMCA is ratified by all three countries.

President Trump knows his opposition (writ large) will decry the possibility of applying national security considerations to the border crisis via tariffs.  So in this 90-day phase where Mexico has made promises, he will repeatedly point toward any visible lack of progress and proactively bludgeon his opposition.

In this 90-day window Trump will be consistently establishing the groundwork for the possibility of the tariffs; and he will do so with vociferous praise upon AMLO and the Mexican authority.   If Mexico fails Trump will have a library of goodwill to reference for his disappointment; which in turn negates the political attacks if the tariffs are needed.

This approach puts even more pressure on AMLO to follow-through. All of this is achieved by optimal design.

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Jun 9 2019

Judge Rules FBI Must Release Declarations from Lead Mueller FBI Agent….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on June 8, 2019 by 

In federal court yesterday (Friday, June 7). In a FOIA case ruling (full pdf below)  Judge James Boasberg was deciding public release over two issues related to the memos of former FBI Director James Comey.  Backstory HERE and HERE.

Judge Boasberg was deciding what could be publicly released, meaning current redactions removed, based on two connected events: (#1) The content of the Comey Memos; and (#2) the declarations of lead FBI agent for Robert Mueller’s special counsel, David Archey, in describing those memos.  CNN had filed a lawsuit to gain full access.

[Note: the descriptions of the Comey memos by FBI agent David Archey are known as the “Archey Declarations” – Read Here.]

For those who may not be aware, there are so many memos (dozens) when assembled they seem to make up an actual diary of moment-by-moment events, during the FBI investigation of Donald Trump, as documented by FBI Director James Comey.

♦ In the issue of the redactions within the Comey Memos, the judge doesn’t remove them. Some are ordered to be removed, some are approved to stay in place.  The Comey memo aspect, and the redaction decision, is basically a splitting of the baby 50/50.  It will be interesting, but meh, maybe not too much detail. – CNN ARTICLE

(Pdf Link)

The issues argued by the FBI lawyers to keep the Comey memos hidden surround sources and methods.  The judge generally agreed to the potential for compromise, but also outlined several sections of redactions within the Comey memos where that argument doesn’t hold up.  [The judge has read the fully unredacted memo content.]

♦ However, on the issue of the Archey Declarations there’s an opportunity for some very interesting information to surface. Here’s an example of currently existing redactionswithin the Archey Declarations:

And stunningly, yes, STUNNINGLY, Judge Boasberg has ordered the Archey declarations to be fully released to the public WITHOUT REDACTIONS. See pages 34 and 35 of the ruling.

That means all those black boxes in the example above will be removed and CNN will be allowed the fully unredacted content of the declarations by FBI Agent David Archey.

This should be interesting.

Here’s the ruling:

.

And Here’s the Prior Ruling that contains the Archey Declarations:

.

THE ARCHEY DECLARATIONS – This is the original declaration outlining to the court on October 13th, 2017, why the Comey memos must be sealed.  It is inside this exhibit where we discover there are many more memos than previously understood, and the content of those memos is far more exhaustive because James Comey documented the FBI investigation.

In essence Comey created these memos to cover his ass. (pg 13):

FBI Agent Archey then goes on to explain what is inside the memos: It is in this section where we discover that Comey made notes of his meetings and conversations with investigators.

Along with writing notes of the meetings and conversations, apparently Comey also made notes of the sources and methods associated with the investigation.  Why would Comey generate classified information in these notes (sources and methods) unless he was just covering his ass because he knew the investigation itself was a risk…

The content of the memos seems rather exhaustive; it appears Comey is keeping a diary for use in the event this operation went sideways. (page #14, exhibit B)

All of those investigative elements would likely be contained in official FBI files and notes by the investigative agents.  There is no need for a contemporaneous personal account of meeting content unless Comey was constructing memos for his own protection. These memos appear to be motivated by the same mindset that caused Susan Rice to generate her email to self on inauguration day.

In the next section FBI Agent David Archey explains the scale of the memos.  There are obviously far more than previously discussed or disclosed publicly.  Additionally, look carefully at the way the second part is worded.

Archey is saying Comey’s written recollections should be withheld because it might affect the testimony of people familiar with the “memorialized conversations”. (page #15, Exhibit B)

 

This is an October 2017 filing, Comey was fired May 9th.  FBI Agent Archey is outlining Trump as the target who might adjust his testimony.  Again, more evidence of the special counsel focus being motivated by the obstruction case they were hoping to build. [Reminder, Comey was still FBI director at the time these memos were written]

The next section gets to the heart of why the FBI wants to keep the Comey memos hidden and not released.

In this section Archey outlines how FBI Director James Comey wrote down who the sources were; what code-names were assigned; how those confidential sources engaged with FISA coverage initiated by the FBI; what foreign governments were assisting with their effort; and what the plans were for the investigation.

Again, why memorialize all of this classified information unless the memos were intended as CYA protection for himself?

The good news is: all of those redactions will now be removed !!

Jun 9 2019

True The Vote Wins Historic $2 Million Settlement Against IRS….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on June 8, 2019 by 

News we might have missed.  Last week Catherine Engelbrecht announced a historic legal victory in her decade long battle against the IRS for targeting her group, True The Vote, as part of the Obama administration’s weaponization program against political opposition.

U.S. District Court Judge Reggie Walton issued a stunning ruling (full pdf below) in favor of True the Vote, and penalized the IRS.  Judge Walton forced the IRS to pay maximum attorney’s fees due to discrimination against the conservative organization that stemmed from the Lois Lerner scandal.  The financial award is likely to exceed $2 million.

.

Ms. Engelbrecht gave Breitbart News an interview where she discussed the victory, SEE HERE.

Here’s the ruling:

.Ms. Engelbrecht’s case is actually connected to the political surveillance operation used against presidential candidate Donald Trump.  Factually, the 2010 program to weaponize the IRS looks like the precursor to the 2012 program to weaponize the NSA database.

Political spying 1.0 was the weaponization of the IRS. This is where the term “Secret Research Project” originated as a description from the Obama team. It involved the U.S. Department of Justice under Eric Holder and the FBI under Robert Mueller. It never made sense why Eric Holder requested over 1 million tax records via CD ROM, until overlaying the timeline of the FISA abuse:

The IRS sent the FBI “21 disks constituting a 1.1 million page database of information from 501(c)(4) tax exempt organizations, to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” The transaction occurred in October 2010 (link)

Why disks? Why send a stack of DISKS to the DOJ and FBI when there’s a pre-existing financial crimes unit within the IRS. All of the evidence within this sketchy operation came directly to the surface in early spring 2012.

The IRS scandal was never really about the IRS, it was always about the DOJ asking the IRS for the database of information. That is why it was transparently a conflict when the same DOJ was tasked with investigating the DOJ/IRS scandal. Additionally, Obama sent his chief-of-staff Jack Lew to become Treasury Secretary; effectively placing an ally to oversee/cover-up any issues. As Treasury Secretary Lew did just that.

Lesson Learned – It would appear the Obama administration learned a lesson from attempting to gather a large opposition research database operation inside a functioning organization large enough to have some good people that might blow the whistle.

The timeline reflects a few months after realizing the “Secret Research Project” was now worthless (June 2012), they focused more deliberately on a smaller network within the intelligence apparatus and began weaponizing the FBI/NSA database. If our hunch is correct, that is what will be visible in footnote #69:

Additionally, Matt Gaetz appears to have seen “a memo held in the Congressional Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF) that contained previously-undisclosed information involving the Federal Bureau of Intelligence (FBI) and Department of Justice (DOJ).” [LINK]  Which sounds like the MOU in the footnote, and the memo that Trey Gowdy and Jason Chaffetz inquired about.

[2012] Dear General Holder:

Recently, the “Wall Street Journal” (WSJ) reported you granted the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) new powers to store dossiers on United States citizens, even if said citizens are not suspected of any criminal activity.

With these new powers, the NCTC would have the ability to copy entire government databases holding information on flight records, casino-employee lists, the names of Americans hosting foreign-exchange students, as well as other data.

The WSJ goes on to report the new rules allow the NCTC to keep data about innocent United States citizens for up to five years and to analyze it for suspicious patterns of behavior. Previously, both were prohibited.

If the WSJ report is accurate, these new powers represent a sweeping departure from past practices, which barred the NCTC from storing information about ordinary Americans unless a person was a terror suspect or the information sought was related to an investigation.

If the WSJ report is accurate, it raises numerous concerns and questions. As elected Representatives and members of the House Judiciary Committee, we are concerned such sweeping, fundamental changes would be made to existing policy without public input and Congressional approval. Changes, which fundamentally alter the relationship between the government and the governed, should only be made with input from the people by and through their elected Representatives. (more)

Wall Street Journal Report Here

How this all comes together in 2019

Fusion GPS was not hired in April 2016 to research Donald Trump. As shown in the evidence provided by the FISC, the intelligence community was already doing surveillance and spy operations. The Obama administration already knew everything about the Trump campaign, and were monitoring everything by exploiting the FISA database.

However, after the NSA alerts in/around March 9th, 2016, and particularly after the April 18th shutdown of contractor access, the Obama intelligence community needed Fusion GPS to create a legal albeit ex post facto justification for the pre-existing surveillance and spy operations. Fusion GPS gave them that justification in the Steele Dossier.

That’s why the FBI small group, which later transitioned into the Mueller team, are so strongly committed to and defending the formation of the Steele Dossier and its dubious content. The Steele Dossier contains the cover-story and justification for the pre-existing surveillance operation.

During a rather innocuous podcast discussion panel April 12th, 2019, one of President Trump’s personal lawyers Jay Sekulow mentioned the FBI had three FISA applications denied by the FISA court in 2016. [Podcast Here – Note comment at 25:05] The denials were always suspected; however, until now no-one in/around the administration has ever confirmed.

If Sekulow is accurate, this adds additional context to the actions of the FBI in the aftermath of Admiral Mike Rogers and an increased urgency in gaining legal justification for surveillance and spy operation unlawfully taking place. A valid FISA warrant would help the FBI cover-up the surveillance. The likely targets were Manafort, Flynn and Papadopoulos…. but it appears the DOJ/FBI were rebuked.

These FISC denials would then initiate institutional panic dependent on the election outcome. An insurance policy would be needed. The Steele Dossier becomes the investigative virus the FBI wanted inside the system. To get the virus into official status, they used the FISA application as the delivery method and injected it into Carter Page. The FBI already knew Carter Page; essentially Carter Page was irrelevant, what they needed was the FISA warrant and the Dossier in the system {Go Deep}.

Fusion GPS was not hired to research Trump, the intelligence community was already doing surveillance and spy operations. The intelligence community needed Fusion GPS to give them a plausible justification for already existing surveillance and spy operations.

Fusion-GPS gave them the justification they needed for a FISA warrant with the Steele Dossier. Ultimately that’s why the Steele Dossier is so important; without it, the DOJ and FBI are naked with their FISA-702 abuse.

Jun 8 2019

Battlefield Death in Living Color: See What Soldiers Saw


Published on May 27, 2019

On Memorial Day, Firewall host Bill Whittle shows how what we remember as iconic battlefields looked very, very different to the men that fought and died on them.
Jun 8 2019

Limbaugh: The objective remains to get Donald Trump out of office


Talk radio host Rush Limbaugh sounds off on ‘Hannity’ on Democrats continuing to attack and impugn the president after the release of the Mueller report. #Hannity #FoxNews FOX News operates the FOX News Channel (FNC), FOX Business Network (FBN), FOX News Radio, FOX News Headlines 24/7, FOXNews.com and the direct-to-consumer streaming service, FOX Nation. FOX News also produces FOX News Sunday on FOX Broadcasting Company and FOX News Edge. A top five-cable network, FNC has been the most watched news channel in the country for 17 consecutive years. According to a 2018 Research Intelligencer study by Brand Keys, FOX News ranks as the second most trusted television brand in the country. Additionally, a Suffolk University/USA Today survey states Fox News is the most trusted source for television news or commentary in the country, while a 2017 Gallup/Knight Foundation survey found that among Americans who could name an objective news source, FOX News is the top-cited outlet. FNC is available in nearly 90 million homes and dominates the cable news landscape while routinely notching the top ten programs in the genre.
Jun 8 2019

The Next Cycle in the ECM Beginning January 2020


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Jun 7, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Martin,

I am a huge fan of yours and have followed your blog for probably 8 years now, I watched your many predictions using the AI models and have been amazed by their accuracy. I am a very concerned small investor and with this big shift coming in the ECM in January 2020 am wondering where you think I should be invested… Gold, the DOW, real estate, cash? I have bought far out of the money Jan 2021 GLD options which are extremely cheap right now. How do you best recommend your fans to position themselves for the coming storm?

Hopefully I will be able to make your next conference.

All the best.

Sincerely

RW

ANSWER: It is still too early to make a reliable forecast just yet. But generally, the next wave of the ECM business cycle should be an inflationary one. It certainly appears that all of this Quantitative Easing has caused tremendous damage and has now trapped the central banks to the point that the biggest debtor is the government. They have tried to use interest rates under Keynesian economics to manipulate “demand,” which is used to force us to borrow or stop borrowing. But all of these manipulations have no impact on preventing government borrowing. The danger now is that after 10 years of QE, governments are addicted to low interest rates and raising them this time will blow up the government budgets. They will respond by raising taxes to try to keep the ball rolling, but that will result in civil unrest and deflation

Jun 8 2019

To Avoid Tariffs Mexico Pledges Troops to Border, Trump Response: ‘Results First’ – Tariffs Will Commence…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 6, 2019 by

In an effort to avoid the tariffs scheduled to begin next Monday; and not admitting they have no ability to influence the U.S-Mexico border region controlled by drug cartels; the conniving Mexican government is pledging to send troops to their southern border.

However, President Trump isn’t in the mood for more empty promises.  In essence, the U.S. position led by Vice-President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is: do it, and let’s see… in the meantime, tariffs will commence until Mexican priorities are improved.

WASHINGTON – Faced with Trump’s threat to impose escalating tariffs on Mexican goods beginning Monday, Mexican officials have pledged to deploy up to 6,000 National Guard troops to the country’s border region with Guatemala, a show of force they say will make immediate reductions in the number of Central Americans heading north toward the U.S. border.

The Mexican official and the U.S. official said the countries are negotiating a sweeping plan to overhaul asylum rules across the region, a move that would require Central Americans to seek refuge in the first foreign country they set foot upon after fleeing their homeland.

Under such a plan, the United States would swiftly deport Guatemalan asylum seekers who set foot on U.S. soil to Mexico. And the United States would send Honduran and Salvadoran asylum applicants to Guatemala, whose government held talks with acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan last week. Central American migrants who express a fear of death or torture if sent back to their home countries would be interviewed by a U.S. asylum officer to determine if the chances of such harm were more likely than not — a higher screening standard with a greater likelihood of rejection than current procedures.

Mexico has repeatedly said it will not accept the kind of “Safe Third Country” agreement that the U.S. has with Canada, a pact that requires asylum seekers to apply for refuge in whichever country they arrive in first, as each are considered safe havens. But the Mexican official said the government is willing to make asylum changes for the sake of a coordinated regional approach.

Mexican negotiators also have made clear that they will pull their offers from the table if Trump imposes the tariffs, telling the U.S. that the economic damage would undermine Mexico’s ability to afford tougher enforcement.  (read more)

Speaking to reporters after a Pennsylvania speech, Vice-President Mike Pence said while the U.S. appreciates the position of the Mexican government, unless the administration sees measurable results, the tariffs will go into effect as scheduled.

 

Jun 8 2019

DOJ Releases Flynn FBI Interview Report (FD-302) by Joe Pientka and Peter Strzok…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 6, 2019 by

The DOJ has released the FBI agent report (FD-302) written after their interview of Michael Flynn on Jan 24th, 2017. (Full pdf below)  From prior testimony we know that FBI Agent Peter Strzok did the questioning and FBI Agent Joe Pientka took notes.

However, for some reason, within the DOJ release of the report they are continuing to redact the name Joe Pientka. [Could be due to ongoing employment]

It’s worth noting according to Mark Meadows the Office of Inspector General Michael Horowitz has interviewed Joe Pientka extensively; prior attempts by congress to gain testimony from Pientka were blocked by the FBI and Rod Rosenstein.

FBI Agent Joseph Pientka was never interviewed by the joint House judiciary and oversight committees (Goodlatte and Gowdy).   The reason, as explained by Meadows, was simple; Pientka was on Weissmann and Mueller’s special counsel team. Congress was not allowed to interfere in the Mueller probe.  In hindsight this looks like Weissmann, Mueller & Rosenstein strategically using the investigation as a shield from sunlight.

The interview took place on January 24, 2017.  The report was written Jan 24th, 2017.  The wording was then deliberated by the small group, approved by FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, and entered into the record on February 15th, 2017. Here’s the report:

Prosecutor Brandon Van Grack filed a cover letter attempting to explain the reason for the Flynn interview on January 24th, 2017, and a delay in the official filing of the interview notes (FD-302) on February 15th, 2017, and then another edit on May 31st, 2017.

To explain the FBI delay, Van Grack claimed the FD-302 report “inadvertently” had a header saying “DRAFT DOCUMENT/DELIBERATIVE MATERIAL” (screen grab)

What the special counsel appeared to be obfuscating was a process of deliberation within the investigative unit, headed by FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, surrounding the specific wording of the 302 report on the Flynn interview. Likely how best to word the FBI notes for maximum damage.

In late 2018 Prosecutor Brandon Van Grack was attempting to hide the length of the small group deliberations within the FBI. In hindsight it seems he did not want the court to know Andrew McCabe was involved in shaping how the Flynn-302 was written.

However, we know there was a deliberative process in place, seemingly all about how to best position the narrative, because we can see the deliberations in text messages between Lisa Page and Peter Strzok: See below (note the dates):

The text message conversation above is February 14th, 2017.

The Michael Flynn FD-302 was officially entered into the record on February 15th, 2017, per the report:

The interview took place on January 24th, 2017. The FD-302 was drafted on January 24th, and then later edited, shaped, and ultimately approved by McCabe on February 14th, then entered into the official record on February 15th.

It was a deliberative document from the outset. Thanks to the Strzok/Page text messages we know the 2018 cover letter from the Special Counsel is misleading. The Feb 15th, 2017, date was the day after McCabe approved it (three weeks after the FBI interview).

May 17th, 2017, Robert Mueller was assigned as special Counsel. Then, the FD-302 report was re-entered on May 31st, 2017, removing the header; paving the way for Mueller’s team to use the content therein.