QUESTION: If the metals are not trading at a fair value relative to everything else, then does that not prove they are manipulated?
SN
ANSWER: Your problem is the assumption that everything must be trading at some fair value. That is up there with the theory of random walks. ALL markets trade for periods where they remain well below fair value. That was the entire takeover boom of the 1980s which they also blamed on me because I was advising many of the takeover players. I simply showed these charts back then which show in terms of book value, the Dow Jones bottomed in 1977. The market was grossly undervalued because you could buy a company, sell all its tangible assets, and double or triple your money. Michael Douglas’ famous speech in that movie about “greed” would not even be possible if everything always trade like some mythical robot at fair value. Everything overshoots and undershoots.
The metals are NO DIFFERENT. Every market swings between grossly UNDERVALUED and then grossly OVERVALUED. This is part of the business cycle. If there were no periods of gross undervaluations, there would not be a sudden boom either.
This is what you have to come to grips with. There is such a thing and the business cycle. Our cyclical analysis would not be possible if everything was trading at a flat line of fair value. This nonsense in metals is made up of people who have been wrong, and need to blame someone else. It is like blaming climate cycles on CO2. This notion of fair value is rooted, I hate to tell you, in Marxism, because he too did not understand the business cycle.
COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You never talk about that today. You had said that the migration of reversals would often hint at the next crash or slingshot. That was what we got in 1991 when Russia collapsed. Do you see anything like that again?
I am glad you are still at this. You have great insight as a trader.
If Scotty wants to beam you up, please say not yet!
DZ
ANSWER: Only for you Dave. Your memory is better than an elephant’s. OMG, how black was my beard. I also had some hair back then. Yes, you are right. I probably have not written here about the strange manner in which markets do move. Yes, the USSR collapse by the end of that year. There was the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.
The Quarterly Array back then picked the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 4th quarter of 1992. The first was a Panic breakout to the upside and the second was a Panic to the downside making the reaction low the week of October 10th, 1992. The reversals were clearly fractal in nature and key reversals will reappear and migrate through the various time levels. That was something which was very fascinating. I promise I will find the time to express more detail on that phenomenon. It was indeed another aspect that the model revealed that I never expected. There is such a hidden order that lies behind the mask of randomness.
People who talk about random walks are simply incapable of forecasting for they cannot see the order behind what they think is chaos. Just as Einstein said, he cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe. I discovered the same thing when it comes to market activity. There is no such thing as random walks. There is a secret order to everything.
When I went to economics class, they said there was a business cycle but it is not regular and cannot be predicted because it was random. Then I went to physics class and they said nothing is random. I came to the conclusion someone was lying. It turned out to be the economics professor. Larry Summers still maintains that view. Hence, economists can manipulate society if it is random – not predetermined.
In plotting what Lorenz thought was random weather data, what emerged was a hidden order that we could not see otherwise. This even disproves the entire nonsense of Climate Change. It has always changed and there is a pattern to the movement – it is not random and we have not altered the climate cycle. Again, it is the same type of people who cannot see the patterns in markets so they say it is a random walk.
I ran markets through our Chaos models and patterns of regularity emerged – not random walks. Again, there is far more order to markets and that is why personal opinions will never cut it when we are trying to forecast the future.
I have on my bucket list to do the next book on the ECM – my gift to posterity. Hopefully, one-day people will wake up and understand that there is a hidden order to everything – NOTHING is ever random. When the USSR collapsed, the capital again fled to the USA in the face of a new level of uncertainty. The New Yorker ran the article on me in 2009 and called it – The Secret Cycle.
I have been warned that my sources have constantly been whispering, and growing to yell and screaming, that the Biden Administration and NATO have been pushing for Ukraine to sacrifice all its people to weaken Russia so they could later come in for the kill. They were doing so by instructing Zelensky he was not to negotiate peace with Russia under any terms.
Now former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who mediated those contacts, confirmed what my sources have been saying from the outset. He openly said that peace might’ve been agreed upon between Russia and Ukraine shortly after the start of the conflict. However, Kyiv’s “Western backers” blocked the negotiations between them for they wanted war.
Make no mistake about it. Russia is now well aware that this is a war of all wars that is out to absolutely destroy their country, their culture, and their people. They will have no choice but to defend themselves against the aggression of the United States and Europe.
COMMENT: Marty, it has become obvious that the media promotes everyone but you. I have attended your WEC events and have met central bankers and people from all the major investment banks both in Hong Kong and at your Berlin Conference. The media avoids you like the plague. But everyone of any substance attends your events. Obviously, the media avoids you to suppress the truth when those in power listen to you. Very interesting.
Can’t wait for Dubai
FW
ANSWER: What I do know is that the major media needs its talking heads. It is irrelevant if what they say is right or wrong. It is only the content they need. They do not want someone like me telling the world what you preach about interest rates is not just wrong, it hurts a lot of people.
I was doing a TV spot I think in 1983. It was FNN that became CNBC. I was doing an interview with Walter Bressert. I gave our forecast that the British pound would fall to par by 1985. The pound was near the $2 level at the time so it was a 50% drop. The host was shocked. He turned to Walt and asked – “What do you think about that forecast?” Walt and I were good friends. He replied, “I would not bet against his computer.”
That was the last time I was on FNN. They want the standard BS. They do not want real analysis, especially long-term which our computer has been the best at compared to anyone. So, I’m not sure it is some conspiracy plot. I think it’s just self-interest. Major media will occasionally cover our forecasts, but generally only after the events.
Barrons had reported our forecast from 2010 that the stock market would make new highs, only when they thought it was a joke. When it happened, they never reported that we were the only ones with that forecast.
Major media is not interested in actual forecasting. They only fill content. They just need the talking heads. They do not care if they are ever right. They are selling content – not real analysis. Even the BBC wrote about the economic forecast at DAVOS on how they are always just wrong. They wrote: “There is just one problem: economists have a poor track record for getting it right.” Why? Simply. When people forecast they are expressing an opinion. They are influenced by the current trend and as such, they can never see in advance the change in that trend.
Our computer is usually correct on the long-term trends. It has never missed a shift in the business cycle that I can recall. The media is just not interested in something like that. They want the controversy and personal opinions for they themselves form personal opinions just as they have bought into Climate Change and now they are promoting World War III.
A lot of people have been asking if we have any more coins to sell from hoards. Another sent this photo in and asked what would a set of the 12 caesars cost. I personally think that the price of $97,500 is too high. I think a Very Fine set would probably be half that price. The hardest coins to find are Caligula and Otho.
I may be able to put together sets of Gallienus from the various mints after the debasement. Also a set of Constantine the Great, with Constans, Constantine II and Constantius II small bronze AE3s.
I have only a few of the Persian Darius I (510-386BC), the Persian king who invaded Greece. These are worn siglos all counter-stamped with banker marks. The image is that of the King as an archer with the reverse just a punch mark. I also have some late Constantine family small bronze issues. I will look to see what sets I can make up.
I have been asked if I can still offer some of the later sets once again.
(1) 253AD until the Tetrarchy of Diocletian and Maximinus in 284AD runs about $2500 for 18 coins.
(2) Denarii from Domitian to Gordian III in VF-XF condition (14 coins) runs about $2,000.
(3) Then the silver Antoniniani from Gordian III to Volusion (6 coins) are about $900
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