Putin & October


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Sep 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Despite all the propaganda that was put out by John McCain, Putin was selected by Yeltsin because he was being blackmailed on the one side by the oligarchs in July 1999 and the communists on the other who introduced a motion in the Duma to impeach him for corruption that was related to the Bank of New York scandal.

Putin NEVER sought to resurrect the old USSR. In fact, he was the ONLY Russian leader to even criticize Lenin as just a bolshevik who destroyed a great empire of the Tsars. Lost in the pages of history, Russia at the time in 1917 had the largest gold reserves of any nation. Those gold reserves vanished and to this day have not been found. It was believed that they were hidden to prevent the Communists from seizing them.

Putin was there to restore Russia after the oligarchs plundered it and the Harvard boys who advised Russia on how to make the transition from Communism to Capitalism utterly never understood the most basic element of such a transition – the people. Putin’s most important achievement of his 20 years in power was restoring normalcy and stability to Russia. He went after the oligarchs and told them they could keep their money, but to stop interfering in politics.

The unwritten history that has been omitted from all books on the subject is that in 1991 when the USSR collapsed, NATO solicited Gorbachev to join NATO. That was one of the reasons there was a coup against him for the hardliners saw this would be a surrender of Russia to the USA. That is when Yeltsin stood on the tank and became President. Yeltsin was himself corrupt and he actually facilitated the rise of the oligarchs.

When Yeltsin turned to Putin out of desperation, the people cheered for Putin was neither an oligarch nor a communist. Despite the propaganda from the West, Putin truly enjoyed a 70%+ approval rating for the people neither wanted to lose all freedom to the communists and the oligarchs exploited the people to gain wealth.

Putin has refused to institute a draft to shore up Russian forces. However, despite all the propaganda that pours out of Ukraine, removing Putin will turn Russia very hard right and they are already criticizing Putin for being too soft.

There has been the strategy that inflation is rising and if Putin is smart, he will turn off the gas to Europe for the winter and show them how insane this is to (1) fuel a proxy war against Russia, and (2) push this Great Reset and the Green Agenda.

Basically, the hope remains that the West loses interest in supporting Ukraine as the costs rise. That’s been Russia’s hope and Ukraine’s dread before, but it seems more unlikely than ever at the moment before winter comes.

The most serious threat to Putin is losing the support of the elites. At the moment, Putin is the balance in the middle between hawks who want to see him crush Ukraine, and doves who want a peace settlement. As it stands now, the hawks would win for the West does not seek any peace and Zelensky says Kissenger is living in 1938 and refuses to yield one inch of territory to Russia. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazis instantly attacked the Donbas in 2014 and even put out a slogan that Crimea will be Ukrainian or Crimea will be depopulated. The hatred there is not going to ever vanish. The only reasonable solution is to allow the Donbas to vote, but since they are mostly ethnic Russians, Kyiv will never accept their vote.

It appears that the volatility will rise after this coming week. The Ukrainians may be forcing Putin’s hand to placate the Hawks since the Doves have been rejected by the West. NATO was Behind the Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv. Yet this victory for Ukraine was more of a staged PR event. The region was being held by local police units, not the Russian army which is in the South. Russia has achieved a 10:1 kill ratio against the Ukrainians in the region of the Donbas which is key. The Ukrainian forces that attacked Kharkiv were in effect a NATO army with the full support of Western intelligence and tactics. Because Kharkiv was held by police-type forces rather than the Russian army, it was clearly done for a PR event to raise morale and to get the West to send more money under the theory that Putin is on the run.

The Great Economic Pretending Yet Again Meets Main Street Reality


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

The great economic pretending is predicated on denying that major western economies are shrinking because political leaders are collectively destroying cheap and reliable energy production (oil, coal, gas), while simultaneously chasing expensive and [un]sustainable energy development (wind, solar).

The Build Back Better / Green New Deal climate change agenda is destroying every economy based on ‘collectively agreed‘ energy policy.  Energy driven supply side inflation is crushing consumers in every western economy.  Sales and purchases of goods have stopped.  Affording food, fuel and housing is the focus of billions. Yet, denial is everywhere.

It was not that long ago, June 23rd to be precise, when Fedex gave a forward-looking forecast based on existing operational results.  In late June Fedex anticipated a generally stable continuation of business operations.  Here we are, three months later and Fedex business collapsed in the last quarter.  CEO Raj Subramaniam says shipping demand unexpectedly plummeted.  The great economic pretending meets reality.

Keep in mind, about six weeks ago Maersk, the international shipping company that delivers millions of containers of goods all around the world, mostly by ship, said they saw demand and orders plummeting as shipping warehouses were full of unsold goods {link, Aug 3rd}.

[The Fedex Collapse] – […] The company scrapped its forecast for its earnings in its current fiscal year that it had issued less than three months ago. For the three months ended Aug. 31, FedEx now projects adjusted earnings per share of $3.44 and $23.2 billion in revenue. That’s below analysts’ consensus forecast of $5.14 adjusted earnings per share and $23.6 billion in revenue, according to FactSet. (more)

The company is also revising its 2023 financial outlook and said it expects conditions to worsen further in its second quarter. Economists have sparred for months over whether or not the US is heading into a recession. (more)

The Great Pretending Continues….

Zelensky to head US Defense Industry Conference


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Sep 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The military-industrial complex continues to grow with the proxy war. The annual Future Force Capabilities Conference and Exhibition hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) will feature none other than Zelensky as their keynote speaker, as well as his minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov. Everyone in attendance is directly profiting off of the war. The IRS deems the NDIA to be a nonprofit organization when in fact, it is blatantly lobbying.

Defense contractors need war, as do corrupt government officials who prosper off of pain. America has already provided Ukraine with over $15 billion since February, yet Zelensky is poised to request more funding and weapons at this meeting.

Boeing Defense, Space & Security; L3Harris Technologies; Raytheon Technologies; BAE Systems; Lockheed Martin Corporation; Huntington Ingalls Industries; General Dynamics; and Northrop Grumman all met in April to discuss how they could profit off of the war. The Pentagon recently announced (see video above) that they want to set up “the backbone of a Ukraine force…for years to come.” Meanwhile, the US military is suggesting that its own soldiers, 24% of whom are food insecure, begin applying for food stamps.

The Biden Administration seems to have unlimited funds for Ukraine. This event will show all the “innovative” ways that the US can pay to kill Russian soldiers on behalf of Ukraine “for years to come.”

Tucker Carlson Notices the Missing Jubilation in Martha’s Vineyard as Dozens of Illegal Aliens Arrive


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 15, 2022 | Sundance 

A strange thing happened.  After lecturing the nation on the virtues of mass migration, the white liberal democrats on Martha’s Vineyard did not celebrate the arrival of the non-white immigrants they have been demanding for years.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson noted in his monologue that Martha’s Vineyard famous nimby residents, including former President Barack Obama, did not welcome the people of color as one would expect.  Instead of celebrating the new diversity, oddly the residents quickly moved to find alternate off island locations to accept the arriving immigrants. WATCH:

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Debt Diplomacy – Is China the East IMF?


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The International Monetary Fund is not the only option for countries in desperate need of funding. The Financial Times recently reported that China has been sending out tens of billions in secretive “emergency loans” to countries facing financial hardship.

China and others have been known to invest in emerging or struggling economies, but China seems to be upping its aid and has provided more funds than even the World Bank. AidData revealed that Pakistan, Argentina, and Sri Lanka alone had received $32.83 billion since 2017. Former Vice President Mike Pence accused China of using “’debt diplomacy’ to expand its influence. [China] is offering hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow overwhelmingly to Beijing.” Pence claimed that China would prey upon poor nations and take ownership of key infrastructure upon default. Another example of the pot calling the kettle black, so to speak.

Pence used the example of Sri Lanka who was pushed into default, opening room for China to construct a military base in the port of Hambantota. The Atlantic published an article in 2021 to say that Pence’s claims of China ushering in their military to Sri Lanka was a lie, as if China wouldn’t jump on such an opportunity. Last month, in August 2022, China dispatched military ships to Hambantota with the intention of using the port for dual commercial and military use. Remember that Sri Lanka recently overthrew its president and has been in utter disarray — their economy completely collapsed.

“Sri Lanka needs financial assistance, and it would not want to displease China by revoking the permission,” Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, told VOA. At this time, they are not building a military base, but it is possible as Chinese companies took out a 99-year lease on the area in 2017. Sri Lanka was seeking a loan from the IMF, but they were unwilling to take on such risky debt. Business is business. Sri Lanka was desperate, and China was willing to come to their aid, but governments only act in their self-interest and would not take on risks if they did not see a way to monetize that risk.

So yes, China is willing to take on the risks that the IMF will not. Unlike the IMF, China does not need to disclose its investments. China is investing less in US and Western debt and has turned its attention to indebted nations. This may be one of the reasons that our computer predicts China will become the next financial capital of the world by 2037.25.

Food Stamps for US Soldiers


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Washington acts perplexed as to why recruitment is nearing a record low. Food inflation is on the rise across the world, increasing 10.9% in the US over the last year. This marks the largest 12-month spike in food prices since 1979. The food at home index spiked 15.8%, cereals and bakery goods rose 15%, and dairy products rose 14.9% in the past year alone. Service members who rely on government pay, not adjusted for inflation, are struggling.

This may come as a surprise – the Pentagon believes 24% of enlisted personnel are food insecure. How on Earth could the US expect to maintain a strong military when nearly a quarter of members cannot provide their families with food? The military budget is certainly not hurting for funds.

The US Army is now recommending that service members apply for food stamps. So, instead of using the funds from the military budget, the government wants to take those funds from a program designed for low-income individuals.

With inflation affecting everything from gas prices to groceries to rent, some Soldiers and their families are finding it harder to get by on the budgets they’ve set and used before,” the guidance written by Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston reads. “Soldiers of all ranks can seek guidance, assistance, and advice through the Army’s Financial Readiness Program.”

Grinston goes on to recommend resources for managing debt, spending, and taxes. Soldiers can request to receive a 6% interest rate cap on debts incurred prior to serving. This includes credit cards, loans, and mortgages. Take advantage of this service and any military benefits if you have the opportunity.

It is a shame that the men and women fighting for our country are surviving on food stamps. Maybe instead of paying off military contractors, sending endless funds to foreign nations, and “10% to the big guy,” the US government can help those who risk their lives to serve and protect our diminishing freedoms.

Bidenomics, August 2022 Inflation Data Infographic


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 14, 2022 | Sundance 

Someone had requested a simple to see infographic of the Bureau of Labor and Statistics August inflation data with monthly and yearly outcomes.  I thought everyone might find this graphic as a good tool for sharing with your network.  [Data Source Link]

Additionally, the BLS also released the producer price index today [DATA HERE].  The PPI for goods dropped slightly, as we expected, due to the August temporary decline in gasoline and diesel.   However, the PPI for final demand services moved up 0.4 percent in August, the fourth consecutive rise.

We are now seeing service providers having to raise their prices to cover their increased costs.   This could be trouble for employment in the long-term.

The Machiavellian Intent of John Durham Surfaces inside His Court Filing, Outlining the FBI Hiring of Igor Danchenko as Confidential Informant


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 13, 2022 | Sundance

This is sickening to read, and perhaps even more sickening to accept.  CTH has long outlined the belief that Bill Barr was the Bondo application to cover the DOJ and FBI institutional rot, and John Durham was the ongoing spray paint application.

The bottom line is an ongoing DC operation to preserve the institutional credibility of the justice system. A credibility, which is – at this point, entirely destroyed – yet the effort continues.

In a court motion today [pdf HERE], special prosecutor John Durham outlines the case against Christopher Steele’s primary source, Igor Danchenko.  For more granular information about the filing itself, visit Techno Fog [review article HERE].

The basic legal case brought by Durham is predicated on the notion that Christopher Steele’s source for his dossier, Igor Danchenko, willfully and intentionally lied to the FBI, and therefore Danchenko is guilty of purposefully misleading FBI investigators assigned to the Trump-Russia/”crossfire hurricane” investigation.

This is where we must stop pretending.  The Durham premise of a “duped FBI” is laughable on its face. No one in the FBI or DOJ-NSD was “duped” by false information from Igor Danchenko.

The lies, as they were with Clinton lawyer Michael Sussman, were well known to be false, yet materially beneficial to the unspoken intention of the DOJ/FBI, which was to target Donald Trump.   The corrupt intent of the DOJ and FBI is the basic rot John Durham was appointed to cover over.

John Durham is running a Deep State cover operation to protect the institutions of the DOJ and FBI from evidence of their prior activity. The bulls**t of pretending this is not his motive is, well, quite simply nonsense and needs to stop.  Look at today’s filing itself, overlay the timeline and you can see the corrupt intention of the FBI and John Durham’s clear objective is to cover for them.

The big picture takeaway is right there on the second page.  Pay attention to the dates.

CONTEXT – From January 2017 through October 2020 the FBI was using Danchenko as part of its investigation.  This includes the entire timeline of the Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann special counsel operation which took place from May 2017 to April 2019.

Danchenko was Christopher Steele’s primary source for information he put into his “dossier”.   The DOJ-NSD and FBI used the Steele Dossier in lieu of a valid ‘wood’s file’ to support the FISA surveillance and search warrant application against Carter Page.  The title-1 warrant gave the DOJ-NSD and FBI the ability to conduct surveillance over Donald Trump as a candidate and as a President.  The warrant was issued in October 2016 and renewed thrice in 2017 (Jan, April, June).

The warrant was used to conduct electronic surveillance of President Trump during the time he was in office.  Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann renewed the warrant to support their targeting of Trump and officials in his orbit.  Most of the evidence gathered by Weissmann/Mueller was captured using surveillance legally authorized by the FISA warrant.

Without the Steele Dossier, there wouldn’t be evidence to support the FISA application.  Without the FISA warrant there wouldn’t be legal surveillance of Trump.  This is the importance of the Steele Dossier and as a consequence the importance of Igor Danchenko who provided the fabricated material within the dossier.

♦ We already knew from the Inspector General report on the Carter Page FISA application, the FBI had interviewed Danchenko in January of 2017, within days of filing for the first renewal of the Carter Page Title-1 surveillance warrant.   However, we learn today -for the first time- the FBI hired Danchenko as a “paid confidential human source” following that interview.

According to Durham, Danchenko remained a paid informant of the FBI all the way to October 2020.  Not coincidentally the same time when John Durham was officially appointed by Bill Barr.

So, let’s just stand back and look at this bulls**t scheme for what it is….

The FBI interviews and questions Igor Danchenko in January 2017 about the information in the Steele Dossier.  Danchenko tells them the material he provided to Chris Steele was all hearsay, word-of-mouth, said in jest, bar talk.  Essentially, nonsense [OIG report on those encounters]

Danchenko tells the FBI the material in the dossier was crap.  Therefore, the underlying information that supported the FISA application was crap.

The FBI knows the information is crap, yet the FBI still used the dossier to get the first renewal of the FISA warrant (January 2017).  The original application (Oct. ’16) and the first renewal (Jan. ’17) are word-for-word and page-for-page identical. The FBI and DOJ added nothing; they simply re-filed the exact same documents for the warrant renewal.

AFTER the January 2017 interview, the FBI hires Igor Danchenko as a paid confidential human source.  This move can only be seen for what it was, the DOJ/FBI needed to mitigate the damage Danchenko could bring to their surveillance warrant authority, so the FBI hired him.

AFTER hiring Danchenko the DOJ/FBI then reinterviewed him before refiling the second renewal in April.   With Danchenko on their payroll they don’t need to worry about him undermining the narrative or speaking the truth about the dossier.  This approach protects their warrant.  The surveillance warrant is renewed.

AFTER Robert Mueller is appointed special counsel in May 2017, with Danchenko still on the FBI payroll and under control…  Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann now submit the FISA application for another renewal on June 29, 2017.

The reason to keep Danchenko on the FBI payroll is to mitigate any risk he might present if he were to speak.

As you can see from the Durham filing, Danchenko was kept on the FBI payroll throughout the Robert Mueller investigation and the special counsel also interviewed him several times.  When Danchenko is interviewed on June 15, 2017, he is being interviewed as part of the Mueller operation.   That interview was before Mueller renewed the FISA application on June 29th.

Igor Danchenko was kept on the FBI payroll from March 2017 through October 2020.

So, what happened in October 2020?

John Durham was officially appointed as Special Counsel by Bill Barr.

Follow the timeline:

Danchenko interviewed by FBI in January 2017. Tells FBI dossier is junk.

FBI hires Danchenko in March 2017 just before renewing the FISA they now know is based on junk.

May 2017 Robert Mueller appointed to cover up all of the DOJ/FBI corruption that existed in the Trump targeting.

June 2017 Mueller interviews Danchenko, then renews the FISA.

February 2019, Bill Barr enters as Attorney General.

April 2019 Robert Mueller completes investigation.

May 2019, Bill Barr appoints Durham just to look into things.  Immediately then begs Trump not to declassify any documents.  Trump writes executive order giving Bill Barr ability to review and declassify documents.

October 2020, Bill Barr officially (and quietly), makes John Durham a special counsel.  We don’t find out until December (after the Nov election).

October 2020, FBI drops Igor Danchenko as paid informant.

Put it all together and you see the continuum.

(1) Donald Trump was being targeted by a corrupt DOJ and FBI.  (2) Robert Mueller was installed in May 2017 to cover up the targeting.  (3) When Mueller is nearing his completion, Bill Barr steps in to mitigate institutional damage from 1 and 2. (4) Barr maintains damage control and installs Durham. (5) Durham takes over the coverup operation from October 2020 (Danchenko safe to exit) through today.

Main Justice kept a bag over Danchenko until they needed a scapegoat, created by Durham, to sell a narrative that Main Justice was duped. John Durham is charging Danchenko (working outside govt) with lying to the FBI while simultaneously avoiding drawing attention to the FBI/DOJ officials (inside govt) who knew Danchenko was lying and were willfully blind to it in order to continue attacking and investigating President Donald Trump.

James Comey, Robert Mueller, Bill Barr, John Durham, the Mar-a-Lago raid…  it’s all one long continuum of the same targeting and coverup operation.

Bill Barr was the Bondo application and John Durham is the spray paint.

The entire system is corrupt.

9/11


We must never forget

This is a book I produced in the months after 9/11, some of the images are very disturbing so don’t download it if that might brother you.

For Those Who Do Not Remember 9/11


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Sep 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Those in college do not recall 9/11/01. College freshmen were only three or four years old at the time of the attack. They do not recall the ongoing search for Osama bin Laden or the frequent briefings from former President George W. Bush. Even young adults beyond college do not recall life before the Patriot Act and the abandonment of our privacy. They have always seen TSA at airports and terrorism warnings. The Patriot Act changed everything, and all Americans were forced to surrender their freedom to the government under the guise of “national security.” National security has been used to justify government surveillance ever since that tragic morning.

This may be why they are comfortable handing over power to government, and tend to vote blue, as they do not know of a life with fewer government restrictions. It is hard to explain how that event shaped the trajectory of America. It was used as a convenient excuse to begin a war that became one of the longest in America’s history. In addition to the 2,996 people who were killed on 9/11, countless soldiers have lost their lives. First responders are still facing the repercussions of the asbestos and debris that caused an array of health issues. Before the attack, America felt it was invincible. Yes, there was Pearl Harbor, but again that event was too far back to remember and was directed at a military base. An attack on American soil at the Twin Towers that signified capitalism in all its glory was completely unfathomable.

For those who do not remember 9/11 – America was a different place once upon a time. I encourage you to dig deeper as the true events that occurred on that day are NOT what they teach in school.