Category Economic Subjects

Nov 3 2017

Choosing the Fed Chairman


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

Re-Posted Nov 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Many expect Mr. Jerome H. Powell to be President Trump pick for Fed Chairman. Trump is resisting pressure by conservatives to make a larger change at the Fed. Many conservatives, including Vice President Mike Pence, preferred John B. Taylor, who is an economist at Stanford and an outspoken critic of the Fed’s monetary policy. Taylor previously served in the Treasury Department during the Bush administration. However, he is best known as an academic economist with no real experience hands-on. He wrote an approach to monetary policy, known as the “Taylor Rule,” where he suggested that the Fed should be raising rates more quickly. That was obviously based on the economic theory of the Quantity of Money leads to inflation. He also has closely advised House Republicans on legislation that would require the Fed to adopt such a policy rule taking a hawkish approach to monetary policy.

Representative Warren Davidson, a Republican on the House Financial Services Committee’s monetary policy panel, is one of the people who want a change in policy toward more conservative and austerity. He is circulating a letter opposing Yellen’s reappointment. Personally, I believe Yellen has done a good job. She has been under international pressure not to raise rates from the IMF and just about everyone else because Europe is still floundering and higher rates would be expected to push the ECB and emerging markets off into the deep-end of the pool.

Mr. Powell, on the other hand, has consistently supported the Fed’s campaign to stimulate economic growth. However, Powell expressed some reservations in internal debates about the extent of those efforts. In more recent years, Powell has backed the methodical unwinding of those efforts, and analysts expect he will seek to raise interest rates at about the same pace as Ms. Yellen.

Nov 2 2017

Germany Also Engages in Political Prosecution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Nov 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Alternative for Germany party (AfD) in Germany has asked the Federal Government to file a lawsuit against all decisions of European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the purchase of government bonds and corporate bonds as well as derivatives since 2015. They are petitioning to file in the European Court of Justice asserting that the policies of the European Treaties and by the Federal Constitutional Court were being violated.

Effectively, the ECB “stimulus” policy (QE) has completely failed and instead has become a life-support system subsidizing the debt of Eurozone member states. Even reducing the amount bought per month is an attempt to see if the marketplace takes up the debt. But the Eurozone governments never cut back spending or reformed. They never had to. The QE program was merely targeting to support the government – not the average person in the economy.

Meanwhile, the former leader of the nationalist AfD, Frauke Petry, was formally charged with perjury and was accused of lying under oath about the party’s finances. If found guilty she would face a minimum sentence of six months in jail, but it would be the end of her political career. This seems to be another political-prosecution.

Frauke Petry resigned from the AfD and has plans to form a new political group in the German parliament that will be distant from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). For this reason, she is a threat politically.

Why are all politicians not prosecuted for lying to the public to win an election and then do the opposite? The charges against Petry are intended to stop her political career.

Nov 2 2017

Towns Restoring to Extortion of Drivers to Raise Money


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Nov 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

I have written about the abuse of Civil Asset Forfeiture laws in the United States, which have mimicked now in Europe. Police are no longer used to protect society, but to target and harass society to raise money for the politicians. It is a shame that Trump has never been pulled over by the police. He would have received a taste of the attitude that confronts you.

The town of Castleberry, Alabama is just the tip of the iceberg. This tiny town of just 550 people has a police force 5 times the size of the national average per citizen. Why? They use every excuse to pull people over and confiscate whatever they can. The police have become the highway robbers that the Knights Templar were once formed to protect travelers on their pilgrimages.

The Knights Templar began a banking system because it became too dangerous to travel with money. These people would rob you giving rise to the term “highway robbery”. If you were in London and needed to send money to someone in Rome, you went to the Knights Templar and they would simply send a message and the local branch in Rome would make the payment for you and London took in your payment. This was how international payments began to surface after the Dark Age.

The French king seized the Papacy, moved it to Avignon in France, install a French Pope who then declared the Knights Templars were devil worshipers and seized all their wealth on Friday the 13th. They were all burned at the stake alive and the king got to keep all the money. This became the Financial Crisis of the 13Th-14th Century.

Looks like history repeats. We are back to highway robbery. Castleberry is by far not unique. %There are many small towns now doing the same thing to raise money for public officials.

Oct 30 2017

Idiots who try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

COMMENT: Ok Mr. Armstrong, this is nuts; You are starting to freak me out with this forecasting. The last 2 months has blown me away when a few more elements of your methodology lit my bulb a little brighter. This may sound like you paid me to advertise for you but most of us know you’re not like Hillary. My simple approach combined 3 pieces important to me: 1. Basic knowledge of the markets on a global scale, 2. Basic understanding of your models and Socrates reports 3. Basic interpretation of the ArmstrongEconomics Blog. (utmost importance, hints included) Like Erwin said last year “it might save your life.”

He is so right.

Best to all;

RH

REPLY: I assume you are probably talking about this Vertical Market. This report is probably one of the most important I may have ever released. It’s not easy because so many people have been caught up in the Austrian School of economic thought and the Quantity of Money theory. The entire Quantitative Easy has proven that theory to be completely wrong.

I know this is like having to relearn everything. But that is just the way it is. I and my senior staff even are going to private meetings with central banks. Everything we have ever been taught in school is just dead wrong. This whole nonsense of Conspiracy Theories of people who are steering the world economy is just insane. If that were even true, then why call us at all?

The world economy is coming unglued. This is no joke. The sooner people wake up and just follow the money flows and forget the old theories, the sooner you will arrive at clarity. The only economic theories that were spot on were Adam Smith, who had no ax to grind in the observation of the Invisible Hand, and David Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage. Everyone else ever since has been about trying to eliminate the Business Cycle. This has caused a vast mess and we are about to pay the price.

We have insane politicians like the new Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern who has declared that capitalism is a blatant failure while the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says capitalism is ‘merely’ coming to an end because it is making itself obsolete.

Both witnessed the economic collapse, but instead of blaming the government and its socialist attempt to control the business cycle, they blame the people for not performing as they demand. What they are harping on is the disparity of wealth and want to take the wealth from the hated rich and somehow that is going to make it better. They are ignorant of the fact that this hated group they despise so much create the economy and jobs – not Marxism. Their failure to even recognize the collapse of Russia and China under Marxist theory is a tragedy that will only lead to internal class warfare.

I thank God I do not have much longer on the planet. I am compelled to watch idiots try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure.

Oct 30 2017

What Came First? Cultivation or Cities?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read you One-World-Currency report. It was truly fascinating. From an academic perspective, what came first in the formation of civilization; agriculture or cities? Where does money fit into this historical perspective?

Thank you;

FD

ANSWER: There has been a fair amount of assumption that went into the history we were all taught in school. What has emerged since is a different perspective, to say the least! There are megaliths at Göbekli Tepe which were erected by hunter-gatherers around 9000 BC or about 3,000 years before history starts to be recorded. Göbekli Tepe is a stone-age mountain sanctuary. It has turned everything upside down insofar as it was assumed that the city came first and then agriculture. It appears that agriculture came first which enable people to create cities.

Göbekli Tepe proves that there was a shift from animism, a belief that attributes a soul to plants, inanimate objects, and natural phenomena inasmuch as there is some supernatural power that organizes and animates the material universe, to centralized religion. In other words, there was a shift from an egalitarian society all people are equal to a hierarchical society arranged in order of rank. Clearly, there had to be a profound economic change and yes there would have to be some sort of monetary reward in the form of some resource to create such a shift from an egalitarian to a hierarchical society.

Göbekli Tepe is extremely important despite its obscure purpose and meaning. It is not the meaning that we need argue over. The incredible fact is that such a monument was constructed in the first place 9000BC. The simple fact of its existence proves historical assumption dead wrong. It matters not whether these pillars that are carved were some religious rite or just a decoration. More than 200 pillars in about 20 circles are currently known and only 5% of the site has been excavated. The astonishing fact is economic. Producing more than 200 pillars took a lot of man-hours. That means the workers needed a stable food supply and therefore agricultural cultivate MUST have been existence BEFORE cities were carved out of stone.

The construction of Göbekli Tepe would also have required some division of labor among overseers, technicians, and workers and management. Therefore, this required a hierarchical society. Therefore, social development in creating such structures must have precipitated, rather than resulted from, the shift to agriculture.

The assumption was that cities came first and then cultivation. Obviously, you had to feed the people to construct the cities first. My bet is on cultivation came first and food became money. Money moved from food to clothing. We see the first use of metal as money being Bronze imitating a sheepskin, which was the standard of value; i.e. Jason and the Golden Fleece.

Even the early Roman bronze Aes Signatum (5 pounds of bronze) pictures a bull. Cattle were also a main monetary unit of value prior to metal.

Oct 29 2017

GREXIT – Will Greece be Better off or Worse?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

GREXIT

QUESTION: I just read an article about Grexit and the MoU that expires in the summer of 2018. Let’s assume Greece exits EU and the Euro, what would happen to Greece and it’s people? What hardships would Grexit bring to the Greek people and what could individual Greeks do to prepare themselves for these hardships?

Thanks for your blog.
Greetings from Greece!
Cheers,

J

ANSWER: Things will be much brighter once Greece gets out of the Euro. Brussels is desperately trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone for their survival, not what is best for Greece. The major data is published by various agencies that are directly or dependent upon government and they will always champion staying in the Eurozone. If you look beyond those headlines, you see a different picture. Most of our clients in Britain who were against BREXIT, now report that things are much better. The manufacturing industry experienced a job boom in the last quarter. Compared Q3 2016, the job market data with that for 2017 showed that the manufacturing sector witnessed a 24% increase in advertised vacancies over the past 12 months. Jobs have been created in Britain at a faster pace since the BREXIT vote, despite the headlines of the fake news.

I have explained before that when Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, they instantly recovered from the Great Depression. This was the case study that George Warren used to demonstrate to Roosevelt that the dollar had to be devalued to reverse the economic decline. Maintaining the gold standard back then was the equivalent of “austerity” imposed upon Europe by Germany. Everyone just gets this whole issue of currency and the Quantity of Money dead wrong. The Austrian School of economics predates the massive government debt era. Today, the government is the biggest borrower within society and they compete against the private sector reducing economic growth.

The refugee crisis alone has devasted Greece. The London Financial Times reported in June that bookings were off as much as 70% for tourists. Greece has to suffer refugees that have devastated its tourist business and that has been one of its primary economic sectors.

Bring on GREXIT and you will stop the refugees as well if they cannot get into the EU by going to Greece. The rest of the EU will not help Greece of Italy pay for these refugees. There is no benefit to remaining in the Eurozone. It is time to slam the door of Brussels.

Oct 27 2017

MAGAnomics – Third Quarter GDP Growth of 3% Exceeds “Economist Expectations”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 27, 2017 by

MAGAnomics is a generally common sense approach toward achieving dynamic growth in the U.S. economy.  Left-leaning economic experts (most of them) are gnashing their teeth as the America-First MAGAnomic principles are paying YUGE initial dividends.

Reuters News is forced to painfully publish the positive numbers; yet they talk down the economy despite the reality.  Again, using the Reuters information we’ll dig into the economic news, and deconstruct their dismissive ideologically-driven narrative.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy unexpectedly maintained a brisk pace of growth in the third quarter as an increase in inventory investment and a smaller trade deficit offset a hurricane-related slowdown in consumer spending and a decline in construction.

♦First, “unexpectedly”. Yeah, it’s always ‘unexpected’ when the results run counter to the preferred outcome.  Notice, “inventory investment”, that’s parseltongue verbiage to describe manufacturing and production infrastructure investment.  It’s not just “inventory” as in “unsold products”, what’s happening is companies are investing in growth and building out production capacity.  The “inventory” is actually equipment (being purchased) and operational infrastructure (being built), two measured GDP values.

♦Second, “smaller trade deficit”. Again, as we noted, the reductions in imports have a doubling impact on GDP growth because imports are deducted from GDP in the economic equation.  If you make a $100 widget in America and don’t import a $100 widget from China, the GDP grows by $200 (the combined value of the produced product and the absence of a deduction for the imported product).  Notice no economic publication is giving Trump credit for the “Made in USA”, America First, policy and promotion.

The economy grew at a 3.1 percent pace in the second quarter. It was the first time since 2014 that it experienced growth of 3 percent or more for two quarters in a row. Economists had forecast GDP increasing at a 2.5 percent rate in the third quarter.

[…]  Post-hurricane labor market, retail sales and industrial production data already show an acceleration in underlying economic activity. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates for a third time this year in December.

“Fed officials will be encouraged by both the overall performance and the composition of growth in the third quarter, which confirms the U.S. economic expansion remains on solid ground,” said Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.

Of course the Fed will increase rates.  However, FED policy is still disconnected from “Main Street”.   FED policy is focused on inflation.  We are still in the space between two economies, “Wall Street” and “Main Street”.   FED policy is designed around the Wall Street economic model they created over 20+ years.

Remember, the FED had consigned the “Main Street” economy to be a “service driven economy”; it is Trump’s MAGAnomics that has disrupted this design and is bringing back a production and manufacturing economy, a middle-class economy.  As such FED policy needs both time and new leadership to come into synergy with an entirely different set of economic policy initiatives created by President Trump.

[…] Businesses accumulated inventories at a $35.8 billion pace in the third quarter, leading to inventory investment adding 0.73 percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth. Inventories contributed just over a tenth of a percentage point to output in the prior period. Economists expect a modest boost from inventories in the fourth quarter.

These “inventories” include raw material purchases for future products.  Remember, companies are smart… the free market is smart…. production companies know when to forecast higher import prices on any raw material.  Like you, companies will purchase items now that they predict will increase in price later.  This boosts the gross margin when the final product is assembled for sale.

When final product assembly is timed when the domestic economy is ‘hot’, the final product has a higher selling price.  Lower initial purchase costs for raw materials combined with higher selling prices equals bigger profits.  It’s easy peasy business 101.

Though export growth slowed in the last quarter, that was eclipsed by the steepest pace of decline in imports in three years, leaving a smaller trade deficit, which added four-tenths of a percentage point to GDP growth. Trade has contributed to output for three quarters in a row.

Business investment in equipment rose at an 8.6 percent rate, increasing for a fourth straight quarter.

Import purchases dropping, thanks to Trump policy and promotion of ‘Made in USA’ programs, leads to domestic companies buying equipment to ‘Make in USA’.  DUH…

[…]  Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, slowed to a 2.4 percent rate as hurricanes Harvey and Irma hurt incomes.

Consumer spending rose at a robust 3.3 percent pace in the second quarter and is likely to accelerate in the fourth quarter with a separate report on Friday showing consumer sentiment holding at lofty levels in October.

“Lofty levels”?  Writers at Reuters can’t even give Trump credit for the highest level of consumer confidence in the past 40 years.

Despite the moderation in consumer spending, inflation perked up in the third quarter, likely as a result of disruptions to the supply chain caused by the hurricanes.

They don’t know what kicked up inflation, because they are stuck in their economic paradigms and not recognizing a tighter labor market… leads to increased wages… leads to increased prices… leads to increased inflation on products from within those labor markets.

This next part cracks me up:

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased at a 1.3 percent rate. That followed a 0.9 percent pace of increase in the second quarter.

With inflation rising, income at the disposal of households increased at a 0.6 percent rate, braking sharply from the second-quarter’s strong 3.3 percent pace. (link)

As we have continually stated the FED doesn’t measure ‘highly consumable products’ in their inflation index (ie. food, fuel, energy costs).  These highly consumable products represent the largest part of the expenditures for households.  They are also domestic products.

Trump’s MAGAnomic Main Street (middle-class) policies, as executed with removal of regulation and increases in production etc., are driving down the price of food, fuel, oil and energy – all domestic products.  This lower cost-of-living approach, in conjunction with increased wages as a result of labor market, means a doubling effect on the incomes of middle-class Americans.   Stuff we use a lot costs less and we are simultaneously seeing wage increases.

If it wasn’t for the insufferable ObamaCare, GDP growth would be pushing 4% or higher because we’d have that much more available purchasing power.  However, remaining positive and not getting annoyed by that aspect, this is also why it’s very predictable to see tax reform putting even more spending fuel into your pocket….

All of that will drive GDP well beyond 5%; and when you combine our ability to spend, with U.S. companies making the stuff we want, and again less imports -and you know how imports deduct from GDP growth- well, the totality of it makes 6 or 7% growth seem very plausible….  Which is exactly what Steve Forbes predicted two years ago if Donald Trump became President Trump.

 

Oct 27 2017

Gold Better in Euros than Dollars?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Oct 27, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: G’day guys.
Thanks for a great seminar in Hong Kong!
I’m reading through your 1 world currency report and find it very interesting, going back to primary school teachings about barter systems and some funny monetary acceptances that have been in place many years ago. Like 14.5 kg copper plates as a currency only back in the 1600’s in Sweden. Or 1-ton barrels of tobacco. Very interesting and tough to carry in your wallet.
The major teaching I received from the Hong Kong Seminar was to look at the currencies (something I’ve had plenty of lessons dealt over the years trying to trade) in regard to products and assets in the many different countries around the world.
My question now we are seeing bitcoins and possibly diamonds and other mediums we are not yet aware of yet replacing gold as a new vehicle to move cash or wealth into a better performing countries assets.
With the collapse about to occur in Europe and Britain included monetary wise. Instead of buying gold in relation to USD one should buy gold against the Euro’s or Pounds when the time is right?
Or has a gold lost its lustre today and the contagion to gold may not occur to the extremes that have occurred in the past?
Will Europe money tell the story? The smart money is moving to the DOW. Will it return to gold when the people lose their confidence?
Thanks for the interesting and new way of looking at the markets Marty. I’m doing better with Socrates though still a novice.
Take care and wish I was coming to the next conference. Hope it’s a beauty.
A

ANSWER: Gold has lost its movability aspect as they hunt money for taxes. Twenty years ago you could hop on a plane with a briefcase of gold with no problem. From that perspective, gold has lost its international portability. This is obviously why people are turning to diamonds, rare ancient coins, and the like – movable assets. We are even witnessing real estate starting to decline now in New York City. The high-end real estate market (not the low-end) was making new highs as big money was trying to get off the grid. Realtors were reporting to us that the major of such high-end deals were all for cash – no mortgages.

Gold would certainly be a better hedge against the Euro than the dollar. It has outperformed the dollar because you always have to look at the currency. However, money will NEVER shift from the stock market all into gold. Everyone has their pet investment in what they feel comfortable. Gold is a retail product – not institutional. The Institutions can trade ETFs, gold stocks etc., but they will never take possession of gold.

What we are facing in truth is a currency reset. That means that ALL tangible assets rise against the currency in whatever country we are talking about. The goldbugs always hate the dollar and many of them have turned away from gold and into cryptocurrencies.

You will always have people who will prefer stocks, others gold, and others real estate, That is just the way it is. To each their own.

Oct 25 2017

New Zealand to Foreigners – Get Out!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The New Zealand Prime Minister that took the country back into Marxism, has fired its first shot across the bow.  The Labour party have formally signed a coalition agreement, introducing all new policies focusing on climate change, regional development, and poverty which translates into hunting the hated rich. Thirty-seven-year-old Jacinda Ardern, a member of the New Zealand Labour Party, became the world’s youngest female leader. Hillary must be crying in her martini.

Nevertheless, PM Ardern has just fired the first shot across the bow and this is a serious warning that foreign investment better cross New Zealand off the list of places that will be up-and-coming.  She has banned foreigners from buying property in New Zealand. The first proposal was to ban any migration to New Zealand as well. That they had to back off of given the refugee impression and that would have agreed with Trump – OMG!

She thinks banned foreign property ownership will cool off the property market. The problem will be, a property crash. When home values decline, people feel they lost money and they spend less. With rising property values, people feel they are better-off and spend more assu8ming they have equity even if they do not borrow against it.

She may be the youngest female leader in the world, but she also is clueless about economics.

Oct 25 2017

Diamonds replacing Gold?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

There has been an effort to use diamonds in place of gold since you can travel with them without setting off metal detectors. But the real problem has been the untrained eye can easily be fooled. The Singapore Diamond Investment Exchange (SDiX), has launched a new product they hope to compete with gold. Perhaps this may have some traction, but again, it is hard to see how this will really compete with gold unless someone is trying to move money from one country to another.