Fed Preferred Inflation Index Jumps 6.8% in June, Largest Increase in Four Decades


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance 

The federal reserve looks carefully at the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index when weighting inflation data.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released the PCE index for June [DATA HERE] and the results show a 6.8% increase in June from a year ago, the largest jump in four decades.

Wage growth in the second quarter (April, May, June) was generally strong, rising 1.6%.  However, it now looks like the consumption index and the wage indexes are creating their own inflationary spiral.  In addition to supply-side inflation, driven by Joe Biden’s energy costs, the labor costs are now increasing substantially which adds costs on the production side of the economy.

As wages go up to keep pace with supply side inflation, the prices of goods and services produced/handled by those workers also increases.  This is the inflation spiral that can get out of hand quickly.  The major concern (not necessarily expressed by pundits) is the inability of any institutional economic response to offset the originating inflation caused by the energy policy.  The economic team is pretending supply-side inflation created by energy policy doesn’t exist. They are only directing attention to demand side inflation.

As long as energy policy keeps driving the price of electricity, gasoline and petroleum products higher, workers need higher wages.  Those wage increases, while significant in scale, still lag the rising originating prices of the goods; and the wage growth adds to the final costs. Inflation then becomes structurally embedded, hyper-inflation begins.  This looks like the current situation.

The monetary policy makers (fed reserve) can only impact the demand side of the inflationary cycle.  Raising interest rates does reduce demand; however, it also reduces labor at the same time.   Monetary policy cannot impact the originating source of inflation that starts this spiral.  The core issue is Joe Biden’s Green New Deal energy agenda.

WASHINGTON – […] An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Fed jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the government said Friday, the biggest such jump in four decades. Much of the increase was driven by energy and food.

On a month-to-month basis, too, prices surged 1% in June, the biggest such rise since 2005. Even excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices climbed 0.6% from May to June.

Employees’ wages, excluding government workers, jumped 1.6% in the April-June quarter, matching a record high reached last fall. Higher wages tend to fuel inflation if companies pass their higher labor costs on to their customers, as they often do.

Friday’s figures underscored the persistence of the inflation that is eroding Americans’ purchasing power, dimming their confidence in the economy and threatening Democrats in Congress in the run-up to the November midterm elections.

But more persistent drivers of inflation show little, if any, evidence of slowing. The wage data released Friday — a measure known as the employment cost index — indicated that paychecks were still growing at a robust pace. That’s good for workers, but it could raise concerns at the Fed about its effect on prices. Chair Jerome Powell specifically cited this measure during a news conference Wednesday as a source of concern for the the central bank’s policymakers.

“This is a (report) that’s going to keep Fed officials up at night,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights. (read more)

U.S. Postal Service Opens Permanent Political Division, Dedicated to the Delivery and Return of Mail-in Election Ballots, DNC Lawyer Mark Elias is Very Happy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance 

With mail-in ballots becoming a feature of all future elections, the United States government, specifically the United States Postal Service (USPS) is now creating a permanent division inside USPS to control the delivery and return of the election ballots.  Do you know the political affiliation of your mail courier?

As often said, it’s not the vote that matters, it’s the counting…. or in this instance, the collection of the votes that really matters.  Democrat lawyer Mark Elias, in charge of protecting all fraudulent voting initiatives on behalf of the Democrat National Committee, is happy with the news.

Keep in mind the union representing 300,000 U.S. postal workers previously endorsed Democrat Joe Biden for president. The National Association of Letter Carriers, is a fully compromised left-wing division of the USPS.

The USPS has just created a division of NALC employees exclusively to handle mail-in voting, just in time for the mid-term election.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States Postal Service is creating a division to handle election mail issues as part of an effort to ensure swift and secure delivery of ballots for the 2022 midterm election, officials said Wednesday.

The idea behind the creation of the Election and Government Mail Services is to have a permanent division dedicated to dealing with election matters, instead of handling issues one at a time as in the past.

Adrienne Marshall, executive director of the division, said Wednesday that the services will oversee “election mail strike teams” in every local and district community to address any problems that might arise.  “We are fully committed to the secure and timely delivery of the nation’s election mail,” she said. (read more)

“Swift and secure delivery”?

“I told ya,… and they spent all that time looking at mules and machines”…

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Great Pretending Around the Biden Economic Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance 

Tucker Carlson used his monologue tonight to outline how intentional Joe Biden economic policies are destroying the lifestyle of the average American citizen.  As Carlson notes none of this is accidental, all of these policies are being done with intent. Yet almost the entire media system and financial class, are denying the resulting outcomes.

The administration and media are not redefining a recession, they are denying one exists in order to make all of the policies permanent. WATCH:

Interview: The World According to Martin Armstrong


Armstrong economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jul 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to listen to Martin Armstrong’s latest interview. 

By Kerry Lutz:

“We’re seeing oil price shocks, commodity booms and busts, and various factors that are threatening to de-throne the US dollar. Why is this happening, and what does this mean for the global economy? I have Martin Armstrong on the show to discuss this, and he explains the various changes that have occurred—such as sanctions in Russia and countries opting to not borrow in dollars—that put the dollar at risk. Not only is the dollar in danger in these conditions—this shift in currency use greatly affects the world economy. Tune in for more information.”

Zelensky: From War-Torn Leader to High Fashion Model


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

(Photo by Annie Leibovitz)

The latest models for the cover of Vogue are none other than Mr. and Mrs. Zelensky. The editors at Vogue actually permitted the president to wear his favorite green military-issued t-shirt that he parades around in daily like some cartoon character.

“The Art of War” never mentioned posing for a high-end fashion magazine as a strategy. Times have changed. This is a strategic marketing move since he is begging Western politicians for billions of dollars. Volodymyr and Olena appear as young and trendy political celebrities who we should root for by turning a blind eye when our elected officials send them our money. There is no need to hold a vote or to question where the money is spent! They are the good guys!

It seems only his previous supporters are buying this new pitch as the internet is fuming with calls of the Zelenskys being tone deaf, at best. Multi-millionaire Zelensky appears to be the everyday man when in reality he is extremely corrupt and wants the entire world to suffer alongside him. The average taxpayer funding his war efforts cannot afford a single item from Vogue, but the West is enamored with celebrity culture. Let us not forget that he appeared via video at the Grammys this year, surrounded by the rich and famous stars. The next generation of voters, who will be paying Zelensky’s debt, are influenced by these celebrities and magazines. Zelensky is using Western celebrity-obsessed culture to spin himself as the good guy, completely ignoring his unwillingness to hold peace talks or admit that he provoked this war.

Judge Seals Middleton Case


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Former Clinton advisor Mark Middleton was found dead under mysterious circumstances in May. Middleton is the main link between Bill Clinton and Jeffrey Epstein. Days after Ghislaine Maxwell revealed she would unveil her client list for a reduced sentence, Middleton suddenly died at the age of 59.

The death was ruled a suicide. Middleton allegedly traveled 30 miles from his home to a ranch that he never had reportedly visited. He hung himself from a tree and simultaneously shot himself in the chest with a shotgun. The sheriff at the scene immediately claimed there would be no investigation.

Circuit Judge Alice Gray does not want to end up on the Clinton “suicide” list. The Freedom of Information Act would require some disclosure of unreleased federal documents. If other lawmakers were to become involved, this act could be implemented, and the case could reopen. That is unlikely. Judge Gray ruled that the Middleton case is closed and sealed. Gray stated:

“The Court finds that since Mr. Middleton’s death, the Middletons have been harassed by individuals with outlandish, hurtful, unsubstantiated, and offensive conspiracy theories regarding Mr. Middleton, his death, and his family, which have caused the Middletons immense harm and anguish.”

The judge claims that she is sealed records, including all videos, photos, and other content, to protect the Middletons, but obviously, her aim is to protect a more powerful family. The judge further stated that “a reasonable person would find the disclosure of the Media Content harmful or embarrassing.” A reasonable person would question how a man could possibly kill himself in that manner. The Clinton Body Count continues to grow.

Comment on Woke


Armstrong Economics Blog/Human Rights Re-Posted Jul 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

00:22

COMMENT: I went to sign up for a dating site. It asks only if you are interested in men or women. I am really confused since we do not know what a woman is anymore. I think it needs to be more clearly defined.

(1) Someone who identifies as a birthing person

(2) Someone who has been transformed into a birthing person for appearance’s sake

(2) Someone who has been transformed into a birthing person who can give birth

(4) Someone who is a natural birthing person

(5) Someone who is a retired natural birthing person

(6) Someone who is non-binary and identifies as whatever depending on the moment

RP

REPLY: My question is after Harris identifies as a woman, which is now a debatable term, she then states what she is wearing. Maybe I’m too old. But I do not understand why someone would state what they are wearing unless they are saying they are not wearing a traditional dress. Why stop there? Should we now identify the type of underwear she is wearing? I have never gone to a meeting, ever, where you stated what you were wearing. Never in all my meetings with Maggie did she ever once state her gender.

You could tell with COVID their mental state depending if they wore a mask and demanded yours had to be over your nose. But this is far beyond that. This has all gone insane.

First Major German City Turns Off Hot Water and Public Building Electricity to Save Gas


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance 

Hanover, a city in the northwest of Germany, has become the first major metropolitan area to try and reduce the use of natural gas by removing hot water from public buildings.  The move comes as natural gas supplies from Russia are reduced to 20% of capacity.  Germany is attempting to fill up storage facilities of natural gas in order to survive the winter.

Germany, together with several European countries, are telling their citizens to expect large increases in their electricity bills as energy costs continue to skyrocket.

Germany does not have any LNG terminals to receive shipments of natural gas into ports, they are dependent on pipelines from Russia.  They are urgently trying to reduce the current amount of natural gas being consumed.

(Via Daily Mail) – […] Other desperate gas-saving measures include switching off public fountains and blacking out night-time lights on major buildings such as the town hall and museums. The city’s mayor, Belit Onay, spoke of an ‘imminent gas shortage’ that meant they had to reduce the city’s energy consumption by 15 per cent.

[…] There will also be a ban on portable air conditioners, heaters and radiators among the general populace as the average German begins to pay a price for standing up to the Russian dictator.

[…] Germany, like most of Europe, has been enjoying a hot summer which should soften the blow of the cold showers, but public officials are introducing the measures now in fear of what awaits them when the season turns.

Gazprom, the Russian state energy giant, has been giving European leaders sleepless nights by disrupting the flow of gas via its Nord Stream 1 pipe line.

They cut the flow to 40 per cent in June, citing maintenance issues, and this week they reduced the gas supply through the pipe to just 20 per cent.

These reductions, which EU energy chief Kadri Simson dismissed as ‘politically motivated’, have seen energy bills soar, governments struggle to fill gas storage facilities and energy-intensive heavy industries wondering if they can keep the factories running.

Russia denies that it is deliberately throttling supply to cause pain and instability in Europe, but few doubt that it is a deliberate ploy to punish what it calls ‘unfriendly countries.’

In response, European Union countries agreed to a controversial, bloc-wide 15 per cent reduction in gas usage on Tuesday that is hoped will reduce the pressure on European countries most vulnerable to Russian energy blackmail. (read more)

To Lower Natural Gas Use World’s Largest Chemical Company Announces Making Less Ammonia, Fertilizer Production Will Shrink Further


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance 

The energy crisis in Germany is now a confluence of terrible events that will snowball well into next year.

The world’s largest chemical company, BASF, has announced they will cut down the production of ammonia in order to use less natural gas.

In the short term this will help Germany build up natural gas supplies to survive a cold winter with predicted rationing still planned.  However, in the long term the shortage of ammonia means less fertilizer which will mean future shortages and increased costs for farmers; ultimately creating lower yields next year.

FRANKFURT, July 27 (Reuters) – Germany’s BASF (BASFn.DE), the world’s largest chemical company, is cutting ammonia production further due to soaring natural gas prices, it said on Wednesday, with potential ramifications from farming to fizzy drinks.

Germany’s biggest ammonia maker SKW Piesteritz and number four Ineos also said they could not rule out production cuts as the country grapples with disruption to Russian gas supplies.

Ammonia plays a key role in the manufacturing of fertiliser, engineering plastics and diesel exhaust fluid. Its production also yields high-purity carbon dioxide (CO2) as a byproduct, which is needed by the meat and fizzy drinks industries.

“We are reducing production at facilities that require large volumes of natural gas, such as ammonia plants,” BASF Chief Executive said in a media call after the release of quarterly results, confirming an earlier Reuters report.

[…] Unlike many European countries, Germany has no liquefied natural gas (LNG) port terminals to replace Russian pipeline gas. That means companies are under political and commercial pressure to reduce gas intensive activities if gas deliveries are cut further.

[…] Russia resumed pumping gas via its biggest pipeline to Europe, Nord Stream 1, on July 21 after a 10-day maintenance outage, but Gazprom (GAZP.MM) on Monday said supplies to Germany would drop to just 20% of capacity. (read more)

Like I told Olaf, food is so overrated…

Secretary Yellen Reminds Good Citizens Their “Household Finances are Strong”, We are Experiencing Abundance and Not Being Happy is Disinformation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance

July 28, 2022 | Sundance | 134 Comments

Comrades, Secretary Janet Yellen reminds everyone how important it is to smile and support the policies of Dear Leader as they manage our overwhelming happiness through this period of exceptionally wonderful abundance.

The secretary reminds us that our “household finances are strong” and we have good employment to keep ourselves industrious and valuable on behalf of the state.  WATCH:

The beet and potato harvest will provide soup for everyone, but only if we continue to do our best.  All of the best comrade citizens are cheerful and happy.

.

“I’m told that’s what it looks like… but we just don’t see it”…