El Erian Thinks the FED Will Flip-Flop on Rates in Response to Demand Side Contraction


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Mohamed El-Erian, a Blooomberg Opinion contributor, cracks me up in his efforts to avoid speaking directly.  Generally, El-Erian knows the situation, he was one of the first to identify the issue with inflation in March 2021.   However, he continues avoiding any mention that the U.S. economy is already in a negative position for growth.

Consider this…. In this interview El-Erian says he believes the Fed will flip-flop and lower rates in reaction to what is happening in the economy.  Keep in mind, the only reason for the Fed to reverse rates so quickly is if the economy is already in a demand side contraction and the latest .75% increase in rate is being done into a negative GDP environment.

Of course, the reality is exactly that.  The U.S. economy is already contracting, mostly because of inflation chewing up the supply side, and the Fed is factually raising interest rates into an economy already in a demand side recession.  But everyone must pretend that’s not the case, so here’s El-Erian saying Jerome Powell is going to end up reversing himself, flip-flopping, which doesn’t make sense if you don’t first establish that the economy is right now shrinking as he speaks.  WATCH:

Worse Than Watergate, Seven Members of Steven Colbert Television Crew Arrested Breaking Into Congressional Offices in DC Capitol


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance

“On June 16, 2022, at approximately 8:30 p.m., U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) received a call for a disturbance in the Longworth House Office Building,” Capitol Police said in a statement obtained by the Washington Examiner. “Responding officers observed seven individuals, unescorted and without Congressional ID, in a sixth-floor hallway.” (read more)

Apparently, California congressman Adam Schiff was helping the television crew to break the law.  The group reportedly banged on doors of several Republican offices –  including that of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, Jim Jordan of Ohio and Lauren Boebert of Colorado — as they allegedly filmed a skit for Colbert’s “Late Show” program that was to center around the January 6 hearings.  The incident was covered by Jesse Watters on his broadcast this evening. WATCH:

President Trump Delivers Remarks During Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference, Nashville, TN


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Earlier today President Donald J Trump delivered remarks in Nashville, Tennessee, to the Faith and Freedom Coalition {Direct Rumble Link}.  WATCH:

SpaceX Fires Woke Worker Activists Who Attacked SpaceX Boss, Elon Musk


Posted originally on the conservative tree house onJune 17, 2022 | Sundance

A bunch of SpaceX workers previously penned the open letter criticizing CEO Elon Musk and the company while identify themselves as “employees across the spectra of gender, ethnicity, seniority, and technical roles.

SpaceX fired them, lol.

New York Post – […] SpaceX president and Musk ally Gwynne Shotwell said in a memo that the firm had “terminated a number of employees involved” in crafting the letter – noting the workers in question had “upset many” with an “unsolicited request” to add their signatures.

“The letter, solicitations and general process made employees feel uncomfortable, intimidated and bullied, and/or angry because the letter pressured them to sign onto something that did not reflect their views,” Shotwell said in the memo, which was obtained by The Verge.

Shotwell referred to the open letter campaign within the company as “unacceptable” and said the workers were fired after an investigation into their actions. The number of employees terminated wasn’t immediately clear.  “We have too much critical work to accomplish and no need for this kind of overreaching activism,” Shotwell added. (read more)

We need more of this.

UK Agrees to Extradite Julian Assange to U.S. After Assurances He Will Be Imprisoned in Australia


Posted originally on the conservative tee house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Apparently, the U.K. courts were sympathetic to the claims by Julian Assange lawyers that U.S. government assassins would kill him.  However, after the DOJ assured the Brits that Assange would be imprisoned in Australia, not the U.S. after trial, the U.K. are ok with extraditing him.   However, Assange still has six appeals and three courts left who will hear his appeals, so don’t expect anything to actually happen soon.

LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) – The wife of Julian Assange vowed to fight using every possible legal avenue after British Home Secretary Priti Patel on Friday approved the WikiLeaks’ founder’s extradition to the United States to face criminal charges.

Assange is wanted by U.S. authorities on 18 counts, including a spying charge, relating to WikiLeaks’ release of vast troves of confidential U.S. military records and diplomatic cables which Washington said had put lives in danger.

His wife Stella said Assange would appeal after the Home Office said his extradition had been approved as British courts had concluded it would not be unjust or an abuse of process.

[…]  Originally, a British judge ruled Assange, 50, should not be deported, saying his mental health meant he would be at risk of suicide if convicted and held in a maximum security prison.

But this was overturned on an appeal after the United States gave a package of assurances, including a pledge he could be transferred to Australia to serve any sentence. (read more)

White House Solution to Gas Prices, Send Taxpayer Funded Gas Cards to Taxpayers Who Cannot Afford Gas


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Y’all saw this coming months ago.  The Biden administration is now considering sending taxpayer funded “gas cards” to taxpayers who cannot afford the gasoline prices created by the Biden administration energy policy.  Yes, murica’ it’s a circle of stupid.

WASHINGTON – […] Biden officials are taking a second look at whether the federal government could send rebate cards out to millions of American drivers to help them pay at gas stations — an idea they examined months ago before ruling it out. Aides had found that shortages in the U.S. chip industry would make it hard to produce enough rebate cards, two people familiar with the matter said. White House officials also fear there would be no way to prevent consumers from using them for purchases other than gasoline, according to another person familiar with the discussions.

[…] Biden aides have also looked in recent days at invoking the Defense Production Act to move diesel and other refined products should localized shortages materialize, two people familiar with the matter said.

[…] The revived brainstorming reflects how higher fuel costs have emerged as one of the Biden administration’s chief political threats and a serious hurdle for the economy overall. (read more)

Speeding Ticket – Just Blame Putin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Man Blames Putin for Speeding Ticket

The Federal Reserve Cannot Combat Inflation Alone


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was notably frustrated when pressured about the Fed’s role in inflation. During his Q&A session this Wednesday, Powell plainly stated that the Federal Reserve alone could not combat inflation. It is far more complex than simply raising rates and hoping for the best. The Federal Reserve cannot increase the supply to meet demand. They have no say over clogged ports and closed factories. The Federal Reserve cannot reverse Biden’s policies that have made America energy-dependent, nor can it reserve sanctions against countries that hold essential supplies. As an independent entity, the Federal Reserve has no control over tariffs or diplomatic relations with regard to trade. Notably, the Federal Reserve cannot combat excessive government spending.

The US just sent another billion to Ukraine and plans to continue funding another endless war that does not support any domestic policy objectives. Jerome Powell has no control over the promises politicians make on the campaign trail to distribute free money to the public in exchange for votes. At any moment, lawmakers can implement policies that completely throw the entire economy off track. They had no say in the lockdowns or restrictions that crippled the economy in 2020.

The Federal Reserve miscalculated the situation by artificially lowering rates for a long time. They failed to look at other clear examples, such as Japan, and realize what has and has not worked historically. Powell admitted long ago that he misjudged the severity of inflation and was wrong to call it “transitory.” Unfortunately, when people in power make mistakes, the repercussions cause global shockwaves. Although separate entities, the White House needs to help the Federal Reserve tame inflation by re-evaluating its policies that are directly causing prices to rise.

Taxpayers Fund Drag Shows In Public Schools


Armstrong Economics Blog/Education Re-Posted Jun 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Certain schools in New York City do not have the funds for basic supplies. There are children who take the subway to school as the bus will not pick them up if they live too far. Some schools cannot afford basic supplies, and children must share. Teachers frequently pay for supplies out of their own pockets. However, the city has chosen to prioritize drag shows for children. Sadly, this is not a parody. A group previously known as the Drag Queen Story Hour NYC has already received $207,000 in taxpayer funds.

New York State paid $50,000 through its Council on the Arts, while the city’s Departments of Education, Cultural Affairs, Youth and Community Development and the Department of Transportation handed over an additional $157,000. Why is there a necessity for children to learn about cross-dressers? There is clearly an agenda at work when kindergarteners are forced to be subjected to this alternative lifestyle that they cannot possibly comprehend.

The worst part is that many parents were not informed that their children would be attending a drag show during school hours. Some schools did tell parents about the show but did not permit them to opt their children out of the program. This is a complete waste of taxpayers’ dollars and borders on child abuse. Yet another example of what happens when the government takes on the role of the parent.

The Heat Wave is Right on Target into Peak 2024


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Jun 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, your forecast for 2022 to be hot and dry has come true. It was 86 years from the Dust Bowl. Do you try to get those in government to listen? Obviously, all the dead cattle would have survived if people would just follow your model.

FD

ANSWER: I suppose I have given up in that regard. I think that is part of the crash and burn is necessary to change the thinking process. We are in the midst of climate change which has a natural cycle. The Dust Bowl was the same as we see today. There was extremely dry, hot weather that exacerbated farming and turned regions into scorching, dust wastelands. I remember in school they blamed the farmers saying they failed to rotate crops. But the record high summer temperatures in the Central U.S. during July 1936 had killed some 5,000 people in addition to livestock.

ABC News said that the temperature was forecast to reach 96 degrees in Minneapolis, which could see its longest June heat wave since 1949. The city has already had four days with temperatures in the 90s. Of course, everyone and their twice removed ex-spouse are blaming climate change. Why not? It’s just obvious. The actual record highs back then reached 112.5 degrees. Don’t worry, we still have time left for this to get even hotter.

If we are simply objectives, this is 86 years from 1936 when many called it a “living hell on Earth” during the Dust Bowl conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently announced that the 2021 meteorological summer (June-August) has matched 1936 as the hottest summer on record in the continental U.S. Over 18% of the Lower 48 states have experienced record warm average summer temperatures.

By 1937, they were talking about buying land that was no longer suitable for farming. All the hobos were former people who worked in agriculture and no longer had a job. These continuously rising temperatures are NOT human-caused climate change. People were dying from heart attacks during the 1936-1939 period.

The Dust Bowl began in 1935 and lasted for about 4.3 years into 1939. It has been our model which warned that post-2020 into 2024 would be a commodity boom and it would be based upon shortages. In addition to the stupidity of COVID, then the Ukraine War, add to that the climate, as we have one highly dangerous collision of cycles that were coming together beginning 2020.05.