QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, I had stopped watching TV a decade ago. Then one late night in August 2015, for no particular reason, I switch on some Swedish channel, and voila! I see The Forecaster. It shattered me… I’m your faithful follower ever since. If anyone deserves a Nobel in Economics – or Peace – it is you, Sir. I hope that day will come.

Now, I have a few questions for you. The problem of overpopulation; what is the future for struggling, abandoned Ukraine; is there an end for the Russian Empire? If you will have time and wish to comment any of these, I will greatly appreciate your thoughts. Many thanks for your shared generosity, Sir.
All the best to you and your family,
AM

ANSWER: Nature has its way of solving overpopulation. Viruses constantly mutate and antibiotics cannot fight a virus. It was the Black Death which wiped out 50% of the population of Europe on average. It has always been cyclical. Then we have war, which also thins the herd. Cycles will take care of that issue.

Ukraine will survive. Its biggest problem is corruption. You can change the head of state, but the body remains. You will see another revolution as the economy turns down and again they will overthrow the establishment.

All empires die. Both Russia and the United States will not look the same 50 years from now. The global economy is shifting toward China. They will become the financial capital of the world after 2032.

The world will survive. It will just keep on going. The politics changes and everyone gets their 15 minutes of fame. Sweden used to also be a great power against Russia

There is a butter shortage in Europe that has seen prices soar by 300% without speculators. The problem can be traced to the end of milk-production quotas in April 2015 directed by the EU that led to a glut early last year in Europe. Centralized planning just never gets it right. Setting regulations requiring the production of butter is just something politicians are never good at. Once the quotas were eliminated, the artificial prices dropped drastically and then farmers stopped producing.

Now with the collapse in production, a shortage took place and then prices have soared. The timing was rather special because, on a global perspective, milk product exporters were curbing their own output in the United States and stopped selling abroad. The higher domestic demand was sparked by New Zealand, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, had experienced lower production due to droughts.

The French like their croissants that require butter. The French stores have refused to pay three times more for butter so even the French farmers have been selling to the rest of Europe. France has gone into a massive butter shortage by at least 30% of the demand cannot be met.

These days, US President Donald Trump is pushing his number one agenda of his term in office – major tax reform. Trump has been meeting with some of his own party senators seeking approval for the planned tax reform he is hoping will be signed by the end of December at the latest for a Christmas present. The negotiations on the details are in the final stages. If the reform is very real indeed, and make no mistake about it, this would be a tremendous triumph for Trump and for the nation as a whole. Trump has the potential to take the United States counter-cyclical (cycle inversion) that would actually put a tremendous amount of pressure on the rest of the world.

There are some who are concerned about removing the tax deduction for state income taxes. Deducting state income taxes from your Federal taxes has been quietly talked about behind the curtain for some time. It was also one factor in my own relocate out of New Jersey to Florida. The elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes will be a major death blow for the high taxed states like California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut etc..

The states have been effectively double-dipping. I remember when the New Jersey state income tax was put in. The politicians said it would cost you nothing because you could deduct it from your federal taxes. Essentially, it was the way for the state to covertly get more money that they were not accountable for. That game is coming to an end. If Trump eliminates that deduction, then and ONLY then will the people start to hold the states accountable for the first time EVER! Repealing it would increase federal revenue by $1.3 trillion over the decade

Deductions would remain for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. Additionally, the standard deduction would nearly double to $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for married couples.

Many expect Mr. Jerome H. Powell to be President Trump pick for Fed Chairman. Trump is resisting pressure by conservatives to make a larger change at the Fed. Many conservatives, including Vice President Mike Pence, preferred John B. Taylor, who is an economist at Stanford and an outspoken critic of the Fed’s monetary policy. Taylor previously served in the Treasury Department during the Bush administration. However, he is best known as an academic economist with no real experience hands-on. He wrote an approach to monetary policy, known as the “Taylor Rule,” where he suggested that the Fed should be raising rates more quickly. That was obviously based on the economic theory of the Quantity of Money leads to inflation. He also has closely advised House Republicans on legislation that would require the Fed to adopt such a policy rule taking a hawkish approach to monetary policy.

Representative Warren Davidson, a Republican on the House Financial Services Committee’s monetary policy panel, is one of the people who want a change in policy toward more conservative and austerity. He is circulating a letter opposing Yellen’s reappointment. Personally, I believe Yellen has done a good job. She has been under international pressure not to raise rates from the IMF and just about everyone else because Europe is still floundering and higher rates would be expected to push the ECB and emerging markets off into the deep-end of the pool.

Mr. Powell, on the other hand, has consistently supported the Fed’s campaign to stimulate economic growth. However, Powell expressed some reservations in internal debates about the extent of those efforts. In more recent years, Powell has backed the methodical unwinding of those efforts, and analysts expect he will seek to raise interest rates at about the same pace as Ms. Yellen.