Tag Archives: Central Planning

Nov 10 2017

Tax Reform & the Dow


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Nov 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Trump’s tax reform to cut the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20% will be a huge boost for the economy and place tremendous pressure on the rest of the world. But already we have Republicans playing games for personal careers. They want to postpone the cut for corporations until 2019 AFTER, of course, the 2018 mid-term elections. As always, they are afraid that the Democrats will point to the rich and regain seats.

The longer they delay, the greater the economic decline. This may be the fundamental behind our model which targeted November for a temporary high. Nonetheless, our Energy Models have peaked on the Daily level suggesting that we are still not really in a serious overbought position. That implies a correction is possible, but not a major crash and change in long-term trend.

Nov 10 2017

Sicily votes 81% against the EU Status Quo – It Begins!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Italy

Re-Posted Nov 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The contagion from Catalonia is indeed spreading to Italy. The Democratic Party (PD) led by former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suffered a severe defeat in Sicily. The Eurosceptic parties have won the election sending yet another warning sign to Brussels that they refuse to accept demand reform. 

BerlusconiThe Democratic Party has lost the regional elections in Sicily in a very DRAMATIC way. Renzi’s party came in third place with just 19% of the vote. The candidate, supported by Silvio Berlusconi, has won around 40%. I have written before that RELIABLE sources revealed that the EU had staged a coup in Italy to overthrow Berlusconi because he was proposing back then to exit the Euro.

Brussels refuses to listen and reform anything.  Berlusconi proudly announced: “Sicily has chosen the path of change, as I have demanded,” in his video message on Facebook. Sicily is one of the poorest provinces in Italy. Youth unemployment is alarmingly high and many people migrate out of lack of prospects to the north or abroad.

Brussels is not interested in the people of Europe. This is now all about saving the jobs of the politicians in Brussels. They have no job without the Euro.

 

Nov 9 2017

The ECM Turning Point Here in November


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Nov 8, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty,

First off, I would like to say it was truly a pleasure meeting you at the cocktail party this past weekend. Congratulations on presenting an incredible conference. It was my first time attending and I will definitely be there again next year. Furthermore, let me tell you that I was very impressed with your staff. They were very helpful before and during the conference. Lastly, I was extremely impressed with the number of young attendees that were at the conference. I consider myself as still being young, but the number of early 20 year olds that were at the conference was extremely impressive.

Now on to my questions. There seemed to be some confusion from a number of people that I spoke to as to the two November dates (the one coming up this month and the one next year). Can you please clarify the significance between the two dates and what you are expecting from them. Also, you may have mentioned this in the past, so I apologize for asking can you to repeat yourself, but can you tell me where the 23700 number came from on the Dow? Is it a number generated by Socrates or is it just a technical analysis number? Lastly, I would like to know what your thoughts are about the diverse crowd that attended your conference?

Once again, thank you for all that you have done for us little people.

P.S. I can’t wait for the release of the Socrates professional version.

John

ANSWER: The Economic Confidence Model has a turning point here this November 24/25. That can produce the temporary high. The next one November 21, 2018, is the one that tends to produce the major events that are often political in nature. For example, on the 1998 wave, we saw the Long Term Capital Management collapse as a result of the Russian collapse. Then the Pi Turning point produced the 911 attack on the World Trade Center to the day.

The next wave that peaked in 2007, produced April 16, 2010 and that was when Greece petitioned the IMF for a loan when it could not pay its debt.

That same turning point from 1929 was November 20th, 1932. It was the 1932 German presidential elections were held on March 13th, 1932 (first round) and April 10th, 1932 (second round run-off) where the incumbent President, Paul von Hindenburg, won a second term. His opponent was Adolf Hitler of the Nazi Party (NSDAP). However, despite the fact that Hindenburg deeply distrusted Hitler and he ran to stop Hitler from winning, following his re-election, two successive federal elections left the Nazis as the largest party in the Reichstag. Hindenburg was forced to appoint Hitler as Chancellor of Germany in January 1933. It was December 1932 when the Fourth Encirclement Campaign was launched against Mao. The communist victory resulted in annihilating over 30,000 nationalist troops, including capturing more than ten thousand. Furthermore, the communist’s victory also armed them for they were able to capture tens thousands of guns from the nationalists.

Roosevelt ran in the primary elections in  1932 and became the candidate at the Democratic Convention  June 27 – July 2, 1932. The elections were November 1932. Then at the bottom of that wave in 1934.05, this is when Roosevelt confiscated gold.

On this wave, the Pi Turning point seemed to mark the political changes around the world from Hitler and Mao to FDR in the United States.

Nov 9 2017

The Coming Censorship


Armstrong Economics Blog/Media

Re-Posted Nov 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The entire nonsense that the political election was “influenced” by Russia propagated by Hillary who paid for the dossier that started this whole mess. The clandestine firm that created the false dossier on Trump is refused to cooperate with Congress. Now because of all this insinuation about “influence” by Russians, Google stated that it is planning to take greater action against “illegal content and misinformation” on its platforms. This is what Hillary is running around the world pitching her book and blaming all this so the response is censorship.

There has been a huge effort to research how ads were used on Google during the US presidential election. Two user accounts related to Russia spent a total of $4,700 (about 4050 euros) on ads. That has been blown up as if it were hundreds of millions. The argument that that slight add is creating misinformation that must be eliminated. Of course, the propaganda by mainstream media that is so one-sided is somehow ignored.

Nov 9 2017

Bank of England & Real World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

Re-Posted Nov 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Without real-world experience, today’s move by the Bank of England would have cost you serious money. Yes, finally after more than a decade the BOE finally raised rates by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The move has been well telegraphed in recent days and having been confirmed the first thing we see is a 1.5% drop in Sterling. There are always reasons why and this one was no exception. Talk that future hikes will be gradual is the top excuse traders are using for sterling’s decline.
Inflation hit 3% in September of this year well above the 2% inflation BOE target so it was only a matter of time for the hike. However, with the future still uncertain ahead of April 2019 and the end of BREXIT talks, it is likely to take a steady hand to drive the 3% back towards target. Gradual rate increases are not what the currency markets wanted to hear but are has been helpful for the long end of the Gilt curve.
It is going to be an extremely difficult task for the Old Lady as she also tries to encourage foreign investment at a time when all help is needed. A weaker currency will not help that hand, but without it, the labour market will suffer.
Weekly bearish Reversal is down at 1.2811 which may well be the target for tomorrow if we see a 300K Non-Farms Payroll report. The close today will have elected Daily Reversals down from 1.3087.
Categories: Central Banks
Nov 9 2017

Hillary What Happened – She Rigged the Democratic Party


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Nov 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong


Donna Brazile’s new memoir, Hacks, has exposed Hillary Clinton for what she really is – a corrupt manipulative politician. Brazile is the former Democratic party leader.  Behind the curtain, she is known as a foul-mouth boldface liar.  Now Brazile’s book,  reveals that Clinton took control of the party long before deciding who would be the Democrat final candidate. This is what the Clinton’s have been known for – behind-the-scenes manipulation.

Clinton knew that the Democratic party was heavily in debt.  Brazile describes Hillary’s acquisition of the party as an extortion. The Party left behind by Barack Obama inherited $24 million debt of which $15 million was bank debt, and $8 million was owed by the party to suppliers who had not been paid. In real terms, the Democratic Party was bankrupt confirming what our models had been forecasting about the decline in that party.

It was rescued by the Clintons, who had collected massive campaign contributions through their own promises and the use of the State Department. The Clintons steered the party to ensure the nomination would be Hillary’s alone. Clinton secretly took control of the strategy, finances, and staffing of the Democratic Party. That claim has been supported by the publication of fundraising agreements in question. Clinton ensured that Bernie would lose. That is why he went to the White House and met with Obama. Only after that meeting did Bernie appear to support Hillary.

Brazile has revealed that the Democrats suffer from “internal corruption”. The Clinton campaign was keeping the bankrupt Democratic Party alive with their monthly grants. Hillary did not campaign against Trump in many areas because she knew the fix was in. At the same time, the campaign had used the party to circumvent the statutory limits on a number of campaign donations. These limits are much higher for donations to party organizations than for presidential candidates. That, of course, was criminal.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has openly admitted with Brazil’s statement that Clinton’s rigging of the Democratic Party had hurt her. The primaries were “manipulated,” Warren said on demand on CNN. Warren said that the party must immediately move to a fair deal with all candidates so as not to become marginalized.

Hillary is running around the world blaming everyone but herself when she manipulated everything to get the nomination and the blame reflects the fact that she had it all rigged so in her mind she was entitled to win.

Hillary is in London even blaming Nigel Farage and BREXIT. It certainly appears she is either on this vast ego trip, or she is so deranged, she actually believes that she can run again.

Nov 9 2017

Policeman Jeff Payne Arrests Nurse for Refusing to Take Blood from Unconscious patient


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence

Re-Posted Nov 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Salt Lake City and the university that runs the hospital have settled paying a Utah nurse Alex Wubbels $500,000 for an illegal and abusive arrest by a policeman Detective Jeff Payne who was demanding she take blood from an unconscious patient in violation of his rights. She refused to take his blood without a warrant. The video of her arrest had sparked public outrage at the abuse of the police. Because courts defend the police and they are rarely ever prosecuted, these policies encourage some to be just abusive knowing they can do whatever they want.

Those police officers who are respectful have got to realize that all police officers like this are ruining their own image of those who do respect the public.

Nov 9 2017

Alimony Deduction May Vanish


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Nov 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Trump Tax Reform is in part inspired by the Flat Tax idea of lowering the rate and eliminating deductions. Alimony, or spousal support, is often part of divorce agreements when there’s a big discrepancy in earnings between the two parties and the marriage has endured for more than just a few years. The idea of some “gold-digger” marrying a rich guy and then walking off with 50% of his wealth is really the stuff of fictional legend. Things acquired before a marriage are not suddenly 50% of the potential “gold-digger’s” new found wealth.

What is interest is the whole problem with alimony. In 2015, according to the data from the Internal Revenue Service, an estimated 598,888 taxpayers claimed the alimony deduction on their Form 1040. Those deductions came off the top of one’s income. The IRS reported that total of more than $12.3 billion was deducted in 2015 for alimony payments.

Here is where the problem comes in. The IRS tries to match the deduction for on the opposite side the spouse must declare it as income and that is subject to tax. According to a 2014 Treasury report, when they tried to match the deductions they discovered there was about 20% less being reported on the receiving end.

Under the elimination of deductions, alimony payments may disappear. That will seriously impact divorce settlements going forward and may result in others going back to court to ask for reductions. What may come to light is those spouses who have not been declaring the alimony. Could become interesting.

I had a friend who remained married and lived together he said because (1) it was too expensive to get divorced, and (2) nobody wanted custody of the children who were draining the resources in perpetual school loans.

Nov 9 2017

Ferguson Riots Have Another Face – Police Raise 23% of Revenue in Fines


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Nov 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The town of Ferguson made headlines as riots appeared. Who will not forget the police with military gear acting like an invading army. Many supported the police and much of the Black Lives Matter movement began there. The story nobody wanted to tell was that the police of Ferguson have a real attitude problem that sparked the riot. That is because they are trained to raise money for the town. Ferguson uses police and the Courts to prey on its residents to raise money and 23% of its entire budget is based upon writing tickets and handing out the maximum fines. They then jail people who can’t pay.

Ferguson expects to raise $3.09 million of projected $13.26 in revenue from fines and fees. They use the police to raise money. For example, an unmowed lawn in Ferguson will be fined between $77 and $102, though in some other cities it’s a $5 offense. Take a 2-week vacation, and you have a ticket when you come home.

This is the entire problem. No government should be allowed to fine people PERIOD! You should be ordered to pay to a charity of your choice – but not to the government. Remove the “money” from their incentive and we will return the rule of law to what it should be – justice.

Nov 5 2017

Former Bush Presidents Pen Book Specifically To Trash President Donald Trump…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on November 5, 2017 by

Personally I hold a slow burning fuse…. As a general disposition I also find no value in cussing.  However, there are times in the course of current events when a person steps forth that is so arrogant, so condescending, and reflects behavior that is so self-serving, so genuinely and painfully a fraud of the highest order; that there’s just not enough tongue to bite.  Fuck George Bush – both of them.

The former presidents’ have penned a book waxing philosophically about their losing control of the republican party.  In the title of the book they have the audacity to call themselves “The Last Republicans”. :::gag:::

Within their high-minded views of their own importance, ie. as gatekeepers of things righteous within the body politic, they can’t even see their pontificating elitism and how that condescending arrogance destroyed a cherished part of our nation; our middle-class.  CONSIDER:

NEWSWEEK – Both former President Bushes had choice words for current President Donald Trump in a new book scheduled to be published later this month, with the elder Bush reportedly calling the billionaire commander-in-chief a “blowhard” and flatly stating he does not “like” him.

Presidents George Bush and George W. Bush, the 41st and 43rd top executives respectively, spoke to author Mark K. Updegrove for the book “The Last Republicans.” It detailed the relationship between the father-and-son presidents and how they were fretful of what Trump had done to the Republican Party.

Furthermore, both ex-presidents admitted they did not vote for Trump. The elder Bush pulled the lever for Democrat Hillary Clinton while the younger told Updegrove he voted for “none of the above.” (read more)

Damn, just think about this.

President George Bush (41) attended the Ohio 2016 GOP convention – where the people’s nominee, Donald J Trump, gave effusive praise to the former President.  Yet that man, that slimy creature of pus filled with bile and self-interest, has the audacity to pen a book telling the world that he voted for Hillary ‘effen’ Clinton.

Screw you slime-ball.

These jackass former Presidents, whom many of us defended while surrounded by a 360 degree furnace of hate, specifically because we uphold honor to the office of the presidency and respect the will of the voters who put them their,… these shallow and small bitter shells of humanity, have the nerve to keep their mouths shut during the entirety of an Obama presidency that destroyed the very fabric of our constitutional values; and now step forth to say the people’s president is a “blowhard” who hurts their delicate sensibilities?

Seriously?

These Globalist idiots who intentionally constructed economic policies (think NAFTA), that sold out the interests of the U.S. to their corporate friends and foreign finance interests, have the audacity to bemoan the goals of an American President who simply wants to rebuild the values of middle-America and restore the economic sovereignty to hard-working blue collar people.

There is no value in hatred.  But if there ever was a time when the invalue of hate aligned itself with an accurate target, the Bush family -writ large- would be the visible personification.

This family began a war in Iraq based entirely on a lie.  A lie that killed 4,526 soldiers; left more than 32,000 Americans wounded and cost over three trillion dollars.

This family sold out our economy to the highest international bidder; and along with the usurping Democrats of like-minded sentiment, gave away our most important assets while indulging themselves personally within the scheme and graft.

The Bush policies were so inherently anti-American, and so devastating in consequence, that the outcome of them was to exit office having given the Democrats a filibuster proof majority in the Senate, full control of the House and control of the executive branch to a the only person possibly defined as more inept than themselves, Barack Obama.

As a direct consequence of the Bush failures we were forced to receive ObamaCare, which, ten years later, is still destroying the very fabric of the U.S. economy and collapsing the financial stability of the American worker; and during which time they sat quietly surrounded by their own indulgences and said nothing.

… And they have the audacity to pen a publication to claim themselves as the “Last Republicans”?

Then again, the Bush failures were so well understood, and so well versed and felt by the electorate, the 2016 GOP nominee won the nomination, and later the oval office, specifically by campaigning against the very principles these “Last Republicans” seek to retain.

Indeed, you can make a solid argument that without the Bush Family, which led to an Obama presidency, there would never have been a need for a Donald Trump.

So yeah, the last republicans is probably correct.