QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your post of November 16th where you state that the ECB is looking to freeze accounts in a banking crisis, does that mean they will no longer honour the claimed insurance of €100,000 per account?
PH
ANSWER: No. They will not pretend to eliminate that insurance, they just will “suspend” it as a bank holiday. But you gloss over another problem. The insurance of €100,000 is NOT per account, but PER PERSON. So taking €1 million euro and spreading among 10 banks does not thereby provide insurance for the whole lot. The same is true in the USA. The ECB is proposing supplementing it with discretionary powers to suspend bank withdrawals. To say that the entire program will be terminated is an exaggeration. Nevertheless, it reflects the realization that the European banking system is in serious trouble. I recommend that Europeans should have a stash of cash, and if you have a lot of cash in your account, put some into dollars in the States before it is too late.
It has come to our attention that there are individuals soliciting clients for money to trade on their behalf claiming they have mastered our system and will use it. These people have NEVER managed money and handing them money is no different than asking a cab driver to conduct surgery on you because he sounds like he knows something about medicine. Managing money is a difficult task, to say the least. It takes nerves of steel and every study has shown that someone who trades a small amount of money even successfully, loses money when they try to trade size. In fact, 66% of large-cap active managers failed to top the S&P 500 in 2016. Some 58% of hedge fund managers reported a decline in assets under management in 2016 and 63% of funds-of-fund firms also reported a decline in assets under management.
Handing money to anyone without a LIVE TRADING background is suicidal!!!!! Emotion will ALWAYS overrule their decisions when it counts most! This is why I have NOT endorsed anyone. I am at that stage in life that money does not impress me. I am interested in demonstrating that there is a better way to manage our economy and our future. This service is about trying help clients stay on the RIGHT side of the market. I need not push any philosophy religious or otherwise.
Life is a journey of learning. We have all made mistakes in life. If you learn from your mistakes, that is the path to wisdom. If you fail to learn, that is the path to ruin. Most losses take place in trading because people try to find a trade or they are listening to the TV. There is far more at stake here than personal OPINION. A trader who follows his opinion and tries to claim he is better than someone else is a total fool. Success requires always assuming you are wrong and that demands you constant recheck what you are doing. NEVER marry a trade or form an inflexible opinion.
Historically, my best trades in life were usually the hardest to do. You have to fight your inner gut to stay calm and do what has to be done in the middle of everyone in a state of panic and chaos. If you have never been there, you will not know how to survive. Emotions will get the better of you every time.
When I shorted the markets for the Russian collapse that manifested into the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis, that was easy to initiate. The hard part came when to take profits and reverse. I sold $1 billion against the Yearly Bullish Reversal in the yen at 147 and had to cope with a contagion that hit every market contrary to all fundamentals. It was a liquidity crisis so everything was sold without logic.
The Japanese yen fell to 103. I covered all my shorts in everything, flipped, and then left the office. It was a gut-wrench trade for I was truly alone. I put in my stops and it would work or not. Very black and white. This was a discipline that I knew I had to walk away and not second guess myself, which would be a disaster. The market would decide. The New Yorker Magazine reported:
“The hedge-fund manager who used to work for Armstrong remembers him coming out of his office in September, 1998, two months after he’d got short in front of the ruble crisis. Monica Lewinsky was on TV. “My oscillators just turned,” Armstrong announced. He booked his profits, pulled out of the market, and went to his beach house, on the Jersey Shore.”
I traded through many crashes. It was that EXPERIENCE that I drew on. Sometimes you just have to fight your emotions to go against the majority. They will all think you are insane. But the majority will also be wrong. This is not an easy thing to do when you are managing other people’s money. What is critical to trading is to see HOW someone acted in the middle of a panic. Were they calm? Did they join the majority or comprehend what was really at stake?
My drawdowns were less than 2%, which is unheard-of. Many people dubbed me the “legend” I supposed for trading. The best way to make money is to REDUCE your trading activity. All the analysis starting funds found that 22% of emerging manager funds made a loss in their first year of trading. They are also more volatile and represent the risk of significant losses to investors. It takes a seasoned trader with a global perspective to survive. Someone who keeps their head in the middle of a panic. At the same time, a fund that grows in size too large, cannot trade like a small fund. Returns tend to decline with size, not expand.
Investors are regularly reminded that past performance is NO guarantee of future results, but track records continue to play an important role in manager selection. One reason for this is the evidence of their decision making and survival. Here is an audit from Republic National Bank showing again the drawdown max for 1997 was $2.7 million compared to $38.1 million gain and I used only 4% of the cash for margin. You cannot guarantee the return made one year will be repeated the next for the basic reason that volatility rises and declines from one year to the next. Even the indexes do not perform the same from one year to the next.
However, a track record reveals something much more important. How did someone respond to abrupt market movements? Did they get out in advance? Did they just panic and follow the crowd? How quickly did the abandon a losing trade? This is where the seasoned trader comes in.
Many people dream of being a hedge fund manager and yearn to cut their teeth on other people’s money. If he puts forth trades that are hypothetical, does he have the courage of his convictions to trade in a flexible manner or refuse to admit when he is wrong? There is so much more to selecting a fund manager than meets the eye. The best hypothetical track record means nothing. Do they have the courage to actually trade?
We will be setting up a forum for our clients who are subscribers to Socrates run by people who have used the models for more than 20 years. You will be able to ask questions there that will be answered without soliciting you for money. We have a couple of major banks with EXPERIENCE in trading who we are looking at allowing our models to be used formally to prevent others from trying to solicit people using our track record pretending it is theirs.
I have stated I am not interested in returning to funds management. That is a job which is 7 days a week and you have to be on call 24 hrs a day. I still have a hard time sleeping more than 3 hours straight. I greatly appreciate all the offers and understand that the track record of the fund I managed for Deutsche Bank remains probably the best ever. Nonetheless, we all have our shelf-expiration dates and I just have no interest in going back to that lifestyle – been there done that!
I will make an effort to find the right firm who I believe is seasoned to survive the chaos ahead because what lies ahead will be far greater than most are even capable to trading. We are entering a period of extreme volatility on just about every front. This will indeed try the character and soul of the best funds manager. So please do not listen to anyone who claims to have mastered our model. Emotions will override any model if they are not a truly seasoned trader. A lot of people think they can become rich as a hedge fund manager. It takes a hell of a lot more than simply a few good trades.
Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday her efforts to form a three-way coalition government had failed. Merkel only received 32.5% of the vote, which is probably the lowest vote of any major world leader. The FDP pulled out of negotiations thrusting Germany into a political crisis and ever closer to a possible new election.
Meanwhile, German hoard of cash is escalating and the cities debt burdens are exploding in Germany. The entire game4 was to hide the debt crisis in Germany until after the elections. With the failure to form a government, new elections are appearing likely extending this Year from Political Hell.
This is becoming the political crisis that just will not go away. Politics around the world remain in turmoil and as our computer had forecast, this would contribute to the collapse in public confidence. The fate of the Euro hangs in the balance.
So far, there is no confirmation of Marines landing at Langley and storming the CIA to prevent some sort of coup. That conspiracy seems to be way over the top. MEU is the Presidents 911 force. Marines are the “President’s Own.” A MEU would be accurate if used by Trump. However, I have not seen any credible reports whatsoever. Clients even in the area report all is quiet. Yes, if this was true, there would be a media blackout. Nonetheless, if a MEU unit did land even on a Sunday, they would have made a lot of noise. That is what they do to create panic in the opposing force.
I do not believe there is any coup in the CIA. If they did try something like that, it would be a stealth assassination and a patsy would have been selected to take the blame. In the case of Kennedy, they used Oswald with a Russian connection. This time, Russia is supposed to be friendly with Trump and against Hillary. So who would be the patsy? Guess that leaves some Mexican. China and Russia would be out and Mexico is not a target of the CIA to invade.
The story of a CIA coup just has no credibility. So far, I have found no confirmation from anyone.
I do not know why people make up this sort of stuff. What is the purpose? They have created a firestorm among the conspiracy theory sites. Why? Do they just have a vivid imagination? Are they deranged? They heard one helicopter and turn that into an invasion of the CIA, which makes no sense? Then they claim it must be true and there is a news blackout. Astonishing!
There are reports now circulating that a special forces group of 2200 marines have landed and invaded the CIA Headquarters. They supposedly have landed in the classic tilt-rotary helicopters. I have been working on this to actually confirm the veracity of this claim but not a single photo has even surfaced. The spin is they are there to prevent a CIA coup against Trump. That seems to be a bit far-fetched. If it is even true, it may be more to secure evidence for the prosecution of the Clintons.
What is very interesting is to see how the Democrats are starting to run from the Clintons. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has come out and said that Bill Clinton should have resigned the presidency after having a relationship with White House intern Monica Lewinsky. With all the attacks to stop candidates using sexual harassment, many are starting to realize that Bill Clinton should have resigned and many are now running away from Hillary.
The truth of these stories about troops landing at the CIA has not been confirmed. I will rely on my direct sources to confirm or deny these reports. I do not believe it is likely that this incident was to prevent a coup even if true.
Why do you always use the Dow Jones Index? It seems to have the least logical construction of the major indices. Why not use the S&P500?
Many thanks for your informative and thought-provoking blog,
G
ANSWER: Each index offers a completely different perspective. The Dow Jones Industrials is the “big” money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital that comes in based on currency. You will also notice it tend to top out first because the big money tends to start to pull out first also due to currency.
The S&P500 is domestic institutions and this tends to reflect the more serious money in the market.
Last, but not least, is the NASDAQ. This is the retail market. You will see this is the last to peak and is the one that gets the retail all hot and bothered.
Each index has its place and reflects a different segment. The foreign capital always buys the big names. That is why the Dow is very important. It is also where big money parks in crisis.
It was massively unreported in 2014 when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took control of the Gaza Sinai border and began removing the Hamas Terror tunnels. As we watched the local media reporting, it was almost unbelievable how western media were ignoring the events. (example)
A full one-third of all homes on the Gaza border with Egypt contained Hamas tunnels used to smuggle weapons. One of the discovered tunnels was 1.5 miles long (link). In order to deal with the scale of the issue, al-Sisi ordered the removal of houses to facilitate an almost mile-wide buffer zone. During the effort massive tunnels were discovered that the terrorist network Hamas was using to smuggle weapons.
It was al-Sisi’s efforts on that border that eventually forced the terms of a 2014 ceasefire between Hamas/Palestinian Authority and Israel. By forcing Hamas and the Palestinian Authority to speak with one voice President al-Sisi changed the paradigm of willful blindness supporting terrorism.
Since 2014/2015 the border area has been secured by Egypt and no weapons have been able to flow into Gaza. The inability of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas to fuel further terror created the space for the Palestinian Authority to extend it’s influence.
Eventually, absent their ability to fuel terrorist activity, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood diminished in influence; later granting the PA with unified governing authority. The “big squeeze” paid off.
Almost three years later, the efforts of President Sisi to raise moderate voices to the top of the political dynamic, are yielding positive results:
Egypt opened its largely sealed border with Gaza on Saturday for the first time since a reconciliation agreement saw the Palestinian Authority take control of the crossing from Hamas.
A Palestinian official at the Rafah crossing said it had opened at 0700 GMT and was expected to stay open for three days.
“Egypt will open the crossing for humanitarian cases registered with the interior ministry,” the official said, adding that civilian and security personnel on the Palestinian side were all employees of the reconciliation government headed by Rami Hamdallah.
Up to 20,000 people from Gaza have applied to enter Egypt. during the brief reopening.
Egypt’s border with the Gaza Strip had been totally sealed since August, and was largely closed for years before that.
Under the terms of a Palestinian reconciliation agreement reached last month, Gaza’s Islamist rulers Hamas are supposed to cede civil power to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority by December 1.
As a first step, they handed over control of its border crossings on November 1.
The Egypt-brokered deal is expected to lead to more regular opening of the Rafah crossing. (read more)
This is another significant step toward a possible Arab/Israel peace deal.
Notorious political/legal activist, and evidence manufacturer, Gloria Allred, represents a woman named Beverly Young-Nelson who claims Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore assaulted her 40 years ago.
Judge Roy Moore stated he’s never personally met Mrs. Nelson but he was assigned -and presided over- her civil divorce case about 18 years ago.
To prove Moore has met Mrs. Nelson, Gloria Allred produced Nelson’s high school yearbook claiming to contain the signature of Roy Moore. However, a review of the signature shows considerable evidence that it is fraudulent. Mr. Moore challenged Allred to present the yearbook for independent authentication. Allred is refusing.
Even Keith Olberman’s former girlfriend, Katy Tur, see’s through the B.S.:
.
Attorney/activist Allred is demanding a Senate hearing against Roy Moore, which is absurd because the U.S. Senate has no jurisdiction over Moore as a private citizen running for office. Allred, an activist and Democrat delegate, is simply attempting to manufacture a political fiasco to benefit her ideological and partisan endeavors.
The signature appears to be entirely fraudulent and manufactured to create a connection between Mrs. Nelson and Judge Moore.
It is clear from a simple review of the inscription that two inks were used, and two different types of handwriting appear present.
Providing further evidence toward Moore’s defense, he notes the “DA” following the signature are specifically the same as the divorce documents he signed for Mrs. Nelson in 1999 (see below):
The “D.A.” does not stand for District Attorney, it stands for “Delbra Adams”, Judge Moore’s former assistant who started working for him in 1987, ten years after the “DA” which appears in Mrs. Nelson’s yearbook.
The evidence showing Gloria Allred manufactured the yearbook seems overwhelming and presumably that’s why she is refusing to allow independent inspection.
Lithium is known and “white gold” since electric cars require a lot of batteries. This has resulted in transforming the metal into a valuable and sought-after commodity. The demand keeps rising as there is a need for energy storage that can only be produced if lithium is available in sufficient quantities.
The price has soared from $1,550 to $9,100 a metric ton. This interesting metal was once used as a treatment for brain disorders. It was also the title of a song by Nirvana for its effect on the brain. Lithium is often found in salt flats when water repeatedly evaporates from a shallow lake, leaving behind a crusty layer of salt minerals. Consequently, Lithium is unique because it is the lightest known metal.
During the 1790s, it was a Brazilian naturalist who discovered the mineral called petalite on an island in Sweden. Then in 1817, a chemist in Sweden discovered that petalite contained a previously unknown element. He was able to isolate one of the salts, but he could not isolate the mineral itself. Nevertheless, he gave it its name – lithium, which meant “stone” in Greek.
Finally, 1855 a British and a German chemist were able to separate the metal from the salts. Once this was accomplished, commercial production of the lithium metal began in Germany in 1923. Because it is so light, it is known for its wide use in batteries.
The latest story involved a pair of exploding headphones on a plane. That incident came after the Samsung’s Galaxy Note 7 recall of their phones, which ended that line. You can’t chalk it all up to incompetence, either. At the famous Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a robot named RoboSimian blew-up thanks to a lithium battery. So what is so dangerous? Inside, there is a thin and porous slip of polypropylene that normally keeps the electrodes from touching. If that separator is breached, the electrodes come in contact, and things get very hot very quickly. So why even use them? Lithium-ion batteries are indeed the most efficient battery. They hold an amazing amount of energy in a tiny package that is light. They can keep a laptop running all day.
They have been used in batteries going back 25 years ago by Sony. However, they seem to get more volatile as time goes on because we are pushing the envelope. We want lighter products to last longer and they have to be cheap.
Devices containing lithium metal or lithium-ion batteries (laptops, smartphones, tablets, etc.) should be carried in carry-on baggage. Most airlines will not allow you to check them in baggage.
The Hunt for Taxes is now creating a crisis in healthcare in Britain. The UK government is gearing up for a massive tax clampdown targeting private sector contractors. The UK Treasury estimates in its budget that this taxing of private contractors in healthcare will create £185m in new taxes for the year 2017/18. This is known as the IR35 regime, which will apply to hundreds of thousands of freelancers outside the public sector.
At the core of this is the issue where someone who is incorporated pays less tax and national insurance than an employee on the same income working freelance under contract. Many suspects that this is just a test run and the government will extend the tax increases to the private sector in a year.
Because most are freelance contractors in the Public Sector healthcare, there is an immediate decline in patient care standards in NHS due to this hunt for taxes under IR35. UK healthcare is deteriorating rapidly. A survey of 450 healthcare locums by ContractorCalculator and the Independent Health Professionals Association(IHPA) has revealed that the NHS is failing to replace critical contract workers who have been forced out of the sector due to IR35 and questionable compliance procedures. It’s all about taxes.
And so many people in the USA think that public healthcare is free in Europe and so much better, they are just victims of propaganda. There is a major crisis unfolding in the British healthcare system all because of the hunt for taxes.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
