Yellen & Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I have been a follower for years. Your model has correctly forecasted every major trend from civil unrest to disease. But your forecast that this wave would be commodity inflation based on shortages years in advance, proves that you deserve the Noble Prize. Absolutely no analyst did that although many now pretend they are forecasting this trend. I have to ask. Why is the government refusing to use your model?

HK

ANSWER: The entire economic field sells itself as the solution. They reject the idea of any defined business cycle BECAUSE that means there can be no manipulation. Just look at Schwab and his World Economic Forum, which will be one day cast as the evil emperor in some future version of “Planet of the Manipulators.” If they listened to this model and followed it, they would reject Schwab’s obsession with Marxism. As long as the economy is random, then they can manipulate it. Following my model strips them of that power.

There are still people in the former Iron Curtain countries that miss communism. Why? It is the same in prison. You become institutionalized and have no responsibilities, including taxes. Someone hands you a broom, you sweep the street, and it takes not a single mental thought of how to actually do the job. You can’t even be fired.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns to Prepare for Economic Hurricane as Biden Administration Switches U.S. Economy to Green New Deal Agenda


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | sundance 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned of a “hurricane” as the economy struggles against fiscally induced growth, quantitative tightening and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mr Dimon was delivering remarks at a conference sponsored by Alliance Bernstein Holdings Wednesday.

Higher oil prices, higher fuel prices, higher energy prices and much higher food prices are all looming over the horizon as the Biden administration switches the baseline for the U.S economy from oil and gas to the Green New Deal energy program. Things are going to get worse, the question is, how much worse? WATCH:

The White House is pretending the U.S. government does not have full control over what is happening in the economy.  The media are pretending not to know that the White House is avoiding admitting the agenda and economic pain is intentional and unavoidable.  The republican politicians are pretending the Biden economic transition program is because the White House is incompetent.  All of these -and so many more- are just pretenses.

What is being done by the government, in this decision to switch from an oil and gas economy into a wind and solar economy, is being done on purpose. Yes, everyone at every level of government, both political parties and every agency within it, and the entirety of the corporate media are pretending not to know this is the Green New Deal taking place.

Small Business Payrolls Collapse in New ADP Report for May, Total Employment Result Far Below Expectations


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | sundance

You do not need anyone to affirm that Main Street is in trouble, you can see it all around you.  Inflation is crushing blue-collar and white-collar workers as prices continue to rise on essential goods. Consumer spending is now prioritized around the higher cost of housing, energy, gasoline and food.  Family earnings are spent before the paychecks arrive for most Main St workers, and now we are starting to see the alarming result economic contraction, beginning with small businesses.

That’s the message within the ADP private sector payroll report released today [DATA HERE], which shows a contraction in small business employment.  Economists were looking for private payroll increases in the 300,00 range; but the result was far lower at 128,000.   Small businesses lost 91,000 jobs in May.  Main Street is in trouble.

WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) – U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, which would suggest demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions, though job openings remain extremely high.

Private payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Thursday. Data for April was revised down to show 202,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 247,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls increasing by 300,000 jobs. (read more)

Is Russia on the Defensive?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov is warning the US that they have become instigators in the Russia-Ukraine war. “We believe that the U.S. is deliberately pouring oil on the fire. The U.S. is obviously holding the line that it will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian,” Peskov recently told reporters, according to Reuters.

Peskov’s warning comes shortly after Russia deemed most “unfriendly” nations as “hostile,” and with good cause. In an interview with PBS, Peskov said that President Biden’s suggestion to remove Putin from power was taken as a personal insult as the people of Russia, not the president of a foreign nation, determine Russian leadership.

Peskov speaks clearly and confidently; he does not seem like a madman hell-bent on war. In fact, he stated that Russia never wanted war. For decades, Russia has told the West that they are “afraid of NATO” moving closer into their territory. “Please take care of it and do not push us into the corner,” the Kremlin spokesman explained. In Russia’s eyes, they are on the defensive. Putin strictly warned other nations not to interfere in Russia-Ukraine relations. Peskov now states that the West, not Ukraine, is “leading the war against us.”

As for the claim that Russia will launch nukes, Peskov made it clear that Russia has no plans to do so, but would under an existential threat. He clarified that the “existence of the state” and “special military operations in Ukraine” have nothing to do with one another. Ukraine certainly cannot back Russia in a corner to which it feels it must implode its way out, but the West does and is pushing that boundary daily.

Americans Blame Biden for Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Unfortunately for Biden, the Great Unwashed is not gullible enough to accept his explanation that Putin is to blame for inflation. A Convention of States Action/Trafalgar Group survey found that most respondents (59.9%) believe Biden’s policies are the “leading contributor” to rising prices. Around 87.9% of Republicans and 61.1% of Independents cited Biden as the leading culprit, while only 55.2% of Democrats were ready to admit that Biden is destroying the economy.

Biden insists the American Rescue Plan and vast overseas donations did not contribute to inflation. He insists preventing America from being energy independent did not contribute to inflation. Even his own Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cannot stand by these lies. Yellen insisted in March 2021 that inflation posed a “small risk” for America. In May 2021, Yellen said inflation would not become a problem. Then the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was signed into law. Biden eliminated oil permits and allowed ports to clog.

This Tuesday, Yellen finally admitted she and the Biden Administration were wrong about inflation. “As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that boosted energy and food prices, and supply bottlenecks, that have affected our economy badly that I, at the time, didn’t fully understand,” Yellen told CNN. “But we recognize that now.”

Although they recognize the issue, there is no plan in place to implement policies to ease inflation. Upon meeting with Fed Chair Powell, Biden simply said that it is the Fed’s place to solve the crisis he created. “My plan to address inflation starts with a simple proposition: Respect the Fed. Respect the Fed’s independence,” Biden said. Since the Fed is independent of the government, he has no choice but to “respect the Fed’s independence.”

More Pretending, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Pretends She Got It Wrong on Inflation, She Did Not


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | Sundance 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has more financial and analytical resources at her fingertips than thousand hedge funds combined. When Secretary Yellen claims today that she “got it wrong” about inflation, what she is doing is continuing the game of pretending; she’s positioning the administration as incompetent, not deliberate.

The illusion of incompetence plays into the scheme of hiding the fact the administration is working through a purposeful strategy. In the game of pretending; and under the current circumstances; it is better to be seen as incompetent than recognized as working with malicious intent.  This is the illusion behind Joe Biden’s usefulness.

This is also the organized pretending game within DC that too few people will accept or admit. The Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman are not making mistakes, they are working on a specific agenda and economic plan. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was not late to raise interest rates, he waited on purpose. He waited for the political reason of waiting until the triggered 2021 inflation spike cycled through the full calendar year.

These are not monetary policy leaders making monetary policy mistakes. These are monetary policy political ideologues, carrying out a political agenda within the U.S. economy. This is part of what National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese would call the “economic transition.” WATCH this through the correct prism:

Ramstein Airforce Base Cancels Drag Queen Story Time Despite USAF and U.S. Marines Celebrating LBGTQ Pride Month


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 1, 2022 | Sundance

Comrades, if you were hoping to take the kids to the Drag Queen Story time at Ramstein Airforce base tomorrow in celebration of global Pride Month, unfortunately the 86th Airlift Wing has cancelled the event.

After initially telling everyone, “We’re celebrating Pride Month at the Ramstein Library with Drag Queen Storytime! Be sure to wear your brightest and most colorful outfits!,” apparently, the chief of public affairs, Lt. Col. Will Powell, now says the event did not go through the vetting process prior to the announcement.

According to the Washington Examiner: “The controversial event comes amid a growing ideological divide among liberals and conservatives about how and who should be teaching children about sexuality.

Conservatives have argued that these lessons should be left up to the parents, while some liberals in educational settings have begun teaching children about these topics according to their own views, at times without parental consent.” (more)

However, comrade binaries, all is not lost.  The United States Marines and the United States Airforce are putting their best boots forward and promoting inclusive wokeism as part of a new military outlook under the new leadership of a more progressive -and sensitive- commander in chief.

With additional military forward deployment and support for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a male pronoun comfortable in stilettos, the enlightened coalition will soon arrive in the rainbow fields of Ukraine to combat the horribly patriarchal Russian advancement.

The U.S. Marines are well positioned in the cultural battlespace as noted by their announcement earlier today:

The pesky Russians don’t stand a chance against a well choreographed advance reconnaissance team.  The few and very proud, with a well trained twerking division of soldiers ready to bare it all in defense of our allies, are practicing their line-dance formations as we speak.

Joint Chiefs’ Chair Mark Milley has assured Defense Secretary Austin that our fabulous troops will be well protected.  The angels on their shoulders have triggered rainbow air support.

Dear leader has yet to announce who will be bringing up the rear; however, we suspect the U.S. army will rise to the occasion.

Be afraid President Putin and Chairman Xi… be very afraid! 

…The loss of the Donbas is merely a flesh wound.

IEA Warns of Possible Gasoline Shortages and Need for Rationing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 1, 2022 | Sundance

Does anyone remember during the Jimmy Carter era when odd/even days on license plates to get gas?  Well, if the International Energy Agency is accurate, and the issue extends into the U.S. as predicted by many industry insiders, we could very well see gasoline rationing once again.

Beyond all the obfuscation, denial and continual pretending, the reason for the gasoline shortages is related to this forcible shift in energy policy that is underway in Europe and the United States.  It’s not a shortage of oil, it’s the new era where the Green New Deal is the policy priority.  The people within the Biden administration do not care about the consequences, Biden is pushed in front of the camera as a useful idiot to take the blame.

Business Insider – The US could see fuel shortages this summer once people start taking their vacations — and Europe could take a particular hit from the lack of supply, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

“When the main holiday season starts in Europe and the US, fuel demand will rise,” Fatih Birol told Der Spiegel. “Then we could see shortages — for example, in diesel, petrol or kerosene, particularly in Europe.”

Birol also told the German newspaper that the energy crisis now underway will be more severe and longer-lasting than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, given it’s applying pressure on three fronts.

“Back then it was just about oil,” he said in the interview published Tuesday. “Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously.”

Oil prices spiked in 1973 and 1979 as the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian Revolution interrupted Middle Eastern crude exports. Geopolitical events have hit the market again in 2022, as western nations impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)

Joe Biden has no clue what the people running the administration agencies are doing.  Even if he were to ask them, they would simply type something into his teleprompter that he would believe and repeat.  Biden doesn’t care, the entire family is in it for the grift.

Joe Biden Says He Welcomes Advice from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on How to Structure Firearm Restrictions and Force Climate Change Energy Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 31, 2022 | Sundance

Joe Biden sought counsel today from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern about how best to remove firearms from Americans and force the U.S. economy to a dependency on renewable energy.   Prime Minister Ardern took the top spot in the global progressive movement after the retirement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

PM Ardern, a remarkable smiley-faced fascist, now represents the face of modern global leftism and boned-up her progressive bona fides with the totalitarian New Zealand COVID policy.  The corporate fascists within the World Economic Forum love the government compliance model represented by Ardern to the collective global society they are creating.

New Zealand has a population of 5 million people, and a GDP of $205 billion (about the same as Nevada).  By comparison the U.S. has a population exceeding 350 million and a GDP exceeding $21 trillion. That said, during their White House meeting today, Joe Biden emphasized that he welcomes the assistance of PM Ardern in helping to guide U.S. efforts for firearm regulation and a comprehensive climate change driven renewable energy economy.

[Transcript] – […]  You understand that your leadership has taken on a critical role in this global stage — and it really has — galvanizing action on climate change; the global effort to curb violence, extremism, and online, like happened in Christchurch.

And — you know, we want to be — I want to work with you on that effort.  And I want to talk to you about what those conversations were like, if you’re willing.

The United States is, you know — it’s just been — there’s a — there’s an expression by an Irish poet that says, “Too long a suffering makes a stone of the heart.”  Well, there’s an awful lot of suffering.  We’ve been — I — I’ve been to more mass shooting aftermaths than, I think, any President in American history, unfortunately.  And it’s — it’s just — so much of it is — much of it is preventable, and the devastation is — is amazing. 

Yesterday — or not — the day before, I was up — I was down in Texas.  And people sat in a room — about 250 of them in a large room — with me for almost four hours.  Not — nobody left.  They waited until aft- — until I spoke to every single person in that room.  Every single person, they waited to the very end.  And the — they — the pain is palpable. 

And you’ve been one of our closest partners with a long history and friendship.  Eighty years ago, Marines landed in New Zealand before embarking on — into the Pacific Theater in World War Two.  And I think I told you, when I met my — my — two of my mother’s brothers who were in the Pacific — they used to be able to deploy at the same time in those days, in World War Two.  And one was shot down in New Guinea.  And they never found the body.  But it’s — you know, it’s — the history goes back a long way — a long way.

And I want to, by the way, recognize New Zealand’s significant support for Ukraine, as a lot of Indo-Pacific countries are doing now.  And — because this is more than just a regional war going on.  

So, I look forward to our conversations today.  We have a lot to talk about.  And I’m really, really delighted to have you here — really.

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Thank you.  And can I say, Mr. President, thank you, so much — so much —

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  You — you can do anything you want.

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Great.  (Laughs.)  Thank you.  And we really welcome this opportunity.

As you’ve said, we’ve spoken on several occasions.  And what stood out to me on both those occasions were we traversed such similar issues, and not — not least, of course, our shared history.  

You speak of your uncle’s service in the Pacific; my grandfather served in the Pacific.  And I think that speaks to the personal connection but also the depth of our friendship and relationship as two countries.  

We are in an incredibly difficult international environment.  But also, domestically, it is extraordinarily challenging as well.  And can I bring the sincere condolences of the people of Aotearoa New Zealand for what you have experienced in Texas and in New York?  And it’s been devastating to see the impact on those communities.

Our experience, of course, in this regard, is our own.  But if there’s anything that we can share that would be of any value, we are here to share it.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Well, the work you’re doing with tech companies is really important, and I want —

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Absolutely.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  — to work with you there as well. 

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  And I absolutely look forward to updating you on some of the conversations we’ve had this week because I hold hope that we can make progress.  

I also wanted just to acknowledge your leadership in bringing to the table the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.  And whilst, of course, we are significant advocates for the CPTPP, the IPEF presents a significant opportunity to build the economic resilience of our region.  So, I look forward to having a bit of a discussion about that opportunity as well.

I also want to acknowledge your significant leadership on Ukraine and how important that has been not only to us as we’ve looked to play a role as well, but globally as we look to make sure that we strengthen the international response to what is a threat to our values and, of course, the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine.

I do want to finish on a note of optimism.  Climate change also is one of the greatest threats that we face.  And I believe that, in you, not only have we seen the leadership but the opportunity that exists between our nations to work together on this incredibly difficult issue that will only be resolved if we work together.

So, thank you.  With — as you’ve seen, we’ve got a lot to discuss, so —

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We’ve got a lot to do.  And I want to emphasize the last point you made: “working together.”

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Absolutely.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We are not coming to dictate or lay down the law.  We —

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Yeah.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  — we have more work to do in those Pacific Islands as well.  I mean, we’ve — and so, we talked at length about — in the past about my trip to Japan and Korea and then dealing with the Quad.  And so — but I think there’s a lot of opportunity —

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Yeah, I agree.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  — to make the world safer and deal with the environment. 

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  I agree.  I agree.  So, thank you.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Thank you.

Thank you all very much.

Q    Mr. President, will you meet with Senator McConnell on guns? 

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  I will meet with the Congress on guns.  I promise you.

{Transcript End}

Around 40% of US Adult Children Live with Parents


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted May 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

A large portion of the youth can no longer afford to live on their own. A new survey found that around 40% of parents in the US currently have an adult child still living at home. An additional 25% reported that their adult child temporarily lived with them but has since moved out. Of the 2,200 respondents, 33% said that their adult children simply could not afford housing on their own. An additional 33% said their child needed financial support after college, while 17% cited job losses.

This has darkened what should be the “golden years” for many Boomer parents. Around 35% said they could no longer afford their long-term goals, and 26% said supporting their adult children has hurt their short-term financial goals. An additional 14% said the added cost had limited their ability to save for future health care.

Previous generations could afford to go to school, work hard, buy a home, and start a family. That is no longer the case amid inflation at a 40-year high coupled with historically high housing and rental costs. The average federal student debt is $36,510 per borrower, while private student debt averages $54,921. Home buying is out of reach for many, as the current average price for a home in America is nearly half a million dollars. Even those with the best credit, and help from their parents, have been outbid by cash offers. Rental costs are through the roof, with the average one-bedroom going for $1,683 (22.1% YoY increase), but it is hard to find an available apartment as occupancy hit 97.5% in December 2021. This all ties in with the drastically declining birthrate as people cannot afford to support themselves, let alone a family.

The unfortunate state of the economy will lead to a new generation of frustrated individuals who are behind in life at no fault of their own. The government has killed the economy, and with it, the American dream.