Tag Archives: The Forecaster
President Trump Meets With Sheriffs From Across The Nation…
September 5, 2018
Earlier today President Trump met with dozens of sheriffs from across the nation and delivered public remarks.
The media was waiting in the room to pounce on questions relating to a New York Times op-ed presumably penned by an anonymous Senior Official titled: “I am a member of the resistance.” I’ll break out that part in a separate post:
[Transcript] 5:05 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Well, that’s really nice. This is an honor because, when I was running, I think number one on our list was law enforcement, taking care of law enforcement, working with law enforcement. And really, we have to create guidelines and principles for the incredible job you’ve done. And you’ve done an amazing job.
And I will tell you, a lot of times you’re scorned and you’re looked at by the media because the media is very dishonest — much of it — in this country. Very, very dishonest. And the job that you’ve done, in light of all of the things that you have to go through — I guess, a little bit like me, also — but I will say that you have been really outstanding, incredible people.
Crime statistics are down. We’re really doing well, other than you take a couple of places around our nation where they have different policies than what we would put — and you know where I’m talking about. But there are a couple of places, they don’t believe in what we believe. But we have, together, done something very special.
I also remember so well, Sheriff, when we were together — I said we’re going to get you a lot of military equipment that you weren’t able to get. And it was sitting in warehouses all over the country, and in many cases, Mike, in other countries. You remember.
And we brought it back home, and you were able to get great military equipment like you couldn’t afford to buy in your budgets. And we gave it to you, and it protected a lot of people. We have a lot of people living today in your profession that would not, frankly, be around right now without the protection of that kind of equipment that we have sitting around waiting, and doing nothing, and just drawing dust.
So the fact that you gave me this award is something very meaningful. I will put that in a place of great honor in the Oval Office. But I really appreciate it. Thank you very much. It’s a great honor. Thank you. (Applause.) Thank you all. [END]
President Trump Meets With Republican Congressional Leadership To Discuss Legislative Agenda….
September 5, 2018
President Trump, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and House Speaker Paul Ryan have teamed up this summer to do something that hasn’t happened in two decades — write and pass department spending bills instead of lumping everything into a massive package. … [W]hile Congress has taken the votes, many on Capitol Hill are giving Trump and his team the credit for breaking the 20-year log jam. They cite his refusal to sign another massive “omnibus” spending bill that ignored his priorities, even if it means shutting down the government.
“This is all driven by the president,” said a key congressional insider. “It’s a win for the president. For 20 years this system has been busted.” (source)
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[Transcript] 3:35 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: So thank you very much. I want to thank members of the House and Senate leadership for joining us today to discuss the September legislative agenda, including how we can responsibly fund the government, protect American taxpayers, and defend American security.
We’ve come a long way toward doing that. We’ve made tremendous progress over the last year and a half plus. And this group is very special to the country and very special to me. It’s a great group of people. I don’t think they get recognized as they should — the job they’ve done.
Thank you to my good friends, Speaker Ryan, Leader McConnell, Majority Leader McCarthy. The most brave — the bravest person around — where is our guy?– Steve Scalise. And I saw you the other night on a very major program. And good job. It was great. You’ve done a great job. And Senator Cornyn, good job this morning. I was watching. Senator Cornyn, thank you very much for being here.
Also, I want to thank Secretary Nielsen and Director Mulvaney. They’ve been working very well with the group and with Congress, and a lot of progress is being made.
In recent years, due to the Democrats’ obstruction — which is really what they are; they’re obstructionists. Their whole campaign is called “resist.” That’s about all they have going.
The government has been forced to pass so-called omnibus spending bills, where all of the spending is rolled into one giant package in a very rushed manner.
Last year, I said we’re not going to do that. We dont want to do that again. We don’t like it. But we wanted to take care of our military, which we did. And we took it beautifully. And they’re right now rebuilding the military to a level that it’s never been at before.
And also, we got $6 billion for the opioid crisis. And that was a very important thing. If we didn’t get that, we would have had some very big problems. So we took care of our military, and we spent a lot of money, and we’re spending a lot of money on working very hard on the opioid problem.
I’m also pleased to say the Senate and House Republicans have responded in so many different ways. They’ve made tremendous progress in funding our government at the fastest pace, Mitch, I think since 2000, I’ve heard. So that’s a pretty fast pace.
Also, I want to make good on a promise to fund border security. Democrats want to abolish ICE. They want to — I guess, by abolishing ICE, they don’t mind crime flooding into our country, because that’s exactly what would happen at a level like we’ve never seen before in the history of our country. And Republicans want to save American lives and support American law enforcement. And that’s what we’re doing.
No matter where I go, law enforcement comes up to me and they say, “Thank you so much, Mr. President.” And they really mean it.
I also want to make sure we pass a farm bill, which is moving along nicely, before the end of the month to help our great farmers. I strongly support the commonsense work requirements and the food stamps in the farm bill. We’ll see if we can get that. The farmers would like to get that.
We’re right now negotiating, as we speak, with Canada. And Canada is coming along. We’ll see how it all works out. But we have to have a fair — I won’t call it NAFTA, because we’ll be changing the name. We don’t want NAFTA. NAFTA has been very bad for our country. But we’ll have a trade bill. I’ll give you a little surprise as to the name when it’s completed, because it may have two or it may three. We’re going to find out pretty soon.
But I look forward to talking to the leaders. And they really have been a spectacular group of people to work with. And I want to thank all of you — Mitch and Paul and everybody. You really have been great. And we’ve made a lot of progress and we will make a lot more. The country is doing — on an economic basis, on a financial basis — probably better than it’s ever done before. The markets are up almost 50 percent since my election victory, which is something that, in history, I don’t think anybody would be able to say. Even in a much longer period, they wouldn’t be able to say it, for the most part.
But a lot of great things are happening. I think probably one of the stellar achievements is jobs, because unemployment is at the lowest levels that it’s ever been. And whether you look at African American unemployment or Asian unemployment or Hispanic unemployment, it’s at historic lows. Never in the history of our country has it been so good.
Women is 65 years. I always have a little fun with that one — I said we’re going to catch. Because 65 years is good. But 65 years is not as historic as “historic.”
So we’re doing very well in just about every way, and we’ll let you know about Canada. A lot of people are saying, “How are you doing with Canada?” We’ll let you know. We should know over the next two or three days. Maybe even today. But you will be the first to know.
And just one other point: The Amir just left, of Kuwait. And we talked about the difficulties in the Middle East. And I will tell you that tremendous progress has been made with respect to Iran. If you look at Iran, the first day that I got to office — or let’s look at it differently — a day before I got to office, everybody was saying Iran would be taking over the Middle East. It was just a question of when. Now they’re just looking to survive.
And we’ve made a lot of difference in the Middle East. People are being pulled out of various areas of Syria. People are being pulled out of areas of Yemen because it’s very tough right now for Iran. And when I came in, the Iran deal was a disaster. Ending the Iran deal was a great thing for humanity. But we’ll see how it all works out. We still have a ways to go, but Iran is a very much different place. We’ll see what happens, also, as to whether or not they talk. If they want to talk that’s fine, and if they don’t want to talk, that’s fine.
And just a final subject is China. Weve done very well in our negotiation with China, but we’re not prepared to make the deal that they’d like to make. We’ll continue to talk to China. I have great respect for President Xi. He’s really a very special guy. But right now, we just can’t make that deal. In the meantime, we’re taking in billions of dollars of taxes coming in from China, and — with the potential of billions and billions of dollars more taxes coming in.
I don’t like to see that China’s markets have dropped by close to 25 percent, but that’s what’s happened over the last few months. Their markets have gone down. I don’t like to see that. But I can tell you that the United States has picked up about $10 trillion in worth. And China would like to be in our position. They would like to be in our position.
So we’ll see what is going on with respect to that. But we’re doing very well in our discussions with China. We’re doing, maybe more importantly, very well with respect to China. But hopefully that will all work out in the not-too-distant future. Okay?
Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.
Q Mr. President, are you going to get rid of Secretary Mattis? There’s a report you’re looking to replace Secretary Mattis. Is that true?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, he just made the nicest quote about me I think I’ve ever had. In fact, Mitch has never said anything so nice. Paul (inaudible). (Laughter.) I think Steve Scalise has said something just as nice. (Laughter.)
But no, he just gave me — I think, because the book is, you know, a total piece of fiction. And he was totally — not even misquoted. He never made the statement. He came out with the statement that — honestly, you know, I’ve heard over the years that General Mattis is an intellect. And when I read his statement, I asked him whether or not this was true.
He said, “Not only is it not true; I’d like to write a statement.” I said, “Thank you very much. That’s very nice.” He wrote the most beautiful statement.
No, I think he’s a terrific person. He’s doing a fantastic job as Secretary of Defense.
Q And he’ll stay in that job?
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah. He’ll stay right there. We’re very — we’re very happy with him. We’re having a lot of victories. We’re having victories that people don’t even know about. And he’s highly respected all over the world.
And I did appreciate his statement because he didn’t have to write that statement. But I did appreciate it. And I appreciated the statement of John Kelly. And I appreciated the statement of many others.
It’s like — you know, every week, I seem to have a book coming out. Some good, some bad. In all fairness, I get some good ones, too. But I like to take them on when they come out. That’s a piece of fiction.
Thank you, everybody. Thank you very much.
Q For the American people, why should they believe you over Bob Woodward — a respected journalist who helped bring —
THE PRESIDENT: Well, if you look at Bob Woodward’s track record, I mean, he had the same problem with Obama.
Q His reporting helped bring down President Nixon.
THE PRESIDENT: Excuse me. Ready?
Q Sure.
THE PRESIDENT: He had the same problem with President Obama. He had a tremendous problem with President Bush. Every time he wrote a book, they were complaining about it; they were complaining about the lack of accuracy.
And I understand him; that’s what he does. And I fully understood that before. In the end, I’m very happy with the way it turned out because I think the book has been totally discredited.
Thank you very much, everybody.
Q Mr. President, shutdown: yes or no?
Q Can you rule out a shutdown?
THE PRESIDENT: If it happens, it happens.
Q If it happens, it happens?
THE PRESIDENT: If it happens, it happens. If it’s about border security, I’m willing to do anything. We have to protect our borders. If we don’t protect our borders, our country is not going to be a country. So if it’s about border security, I’m willing to do what has to be done. Thank you very much.
President Trump Welcomes the Emir of Kuwait to The White House…
France’s Dream of Europe without NATO
Armstrong Economic Blog/War
Re-Posted Sep 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; The French have never been real supporters of America and NATO. They have always wanted to be seen as a world power since Charles DeGaul. What is your view on Macron’s answer to Trump’s demand that they pay their fair share of NATO to turn to Russia?
JE
ANSWER: The French President Emmanuel Macron has urged European states to work with Russia and construct new security architecture, in a bid to strengthen defense capabilities within the European Union and thus rely less on America. This is a question of power. NATO exists because of a view that Russia would invade Europe to end capitalism. Those days are gone. Nonetheless, the idea of empire still haunts us to this day. That is the idea in reality behind the European Union to take Europe and recreate the old Roman Empire of one federalized government. Putin may harbor that same view of reestablishing the Russian Empire. However, it is no longer to spread communism. It may take another 50 to 100 years before we end this idea of empire. Macron is still displaying the view that Europe should stand together against America. It has been the Frech who have blocked free trade and trade negotiations because they are the origin of communism where the idea was born and this is reflected in the poor economic performance of France as a whole
Emerging Market Debt Crisis – A Reality Check
Armstrong Economics Blog/Emerging Markets
Re-Posted Sep 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hello Martin … I follow emerging markets closely and one thing I note is that the size of the sovereign forex-denominated debt burdens are quite small relative to GDP except in the case of Argentina (48%). Everybody else, including Turkey and Indonesia) is 11% or less. How can you have a debt crisis if everybody is clearly able to service their debts? That’s what confuses me. Today the Bloomberg EM dollar debt index is at 6.05% — whereas in 1998 it was 17%! That is saying the risk is still fairly subdued no?
Thank and regards,
MC
ANSWER: There are at least three major factors that are not calculated in this perspective. The dollar debt rises exponentially in the cost to service that debt as the currency declines. It was that very relationship which sent Germany into hyperinflation during the 1920s. Germany had to print more money to make reparation payments and the more they printed the worse it became. If you look closely, Turkey’s external debt has grown 10% just in the past year alone as its currency has declined and interest rates have risen.
Next, we have the rising interest rates which add to the crisis further undermining the economy. The interest must be paid in terms of the foreign currency. Also, keep in mind that they have also issued external debt in euros.
The third dimension of Emerging Market Crisis is private. In the case of Turkey, in particular, this debt crisis differs significantly in one very critical manner. We are not looking at purely as crises fueled primarily by government debt. Much of the private debt of corporations have also borrowed in dollars and euro. This makes the crisis very problematic. There can be no IMF bailout for all the outstanding private debt in foreign currencies.
It is unwise to simply look at the government debt issue. Turkey’s problems through the combination of government and corporate debt can trigger a very critical global contagion. There are significant risks centered on lenders that get caught up in the financial crisis such as pension funds and banks who have lent into Emerging Markets in search of high yield. Portuguese and Spanish banks are heavily invested in Turkey. If Erdogan defaults and turns to Russia, he would take the Euro down with him.
I have reported that there is also a rising risk of a debt crisis in China. However, this is confined to the private sector and at the provincial level – not federal. China has moved to discourage borrowing money in foreign currencies. It is extremely RARE to encounter a corporate borrowing in a foreign currency that even understands the long-term risk that is inherent within the transaction due to foreign exchange.
Additionally, you must take into account the CONTAGION FACTOR that will erupt on trading desks. Once a crisis begins in Emerging Market debt, they will not look at the number on any individual country – they will just sell the entire category at the market. The Bloomberg EM dollar debt index is not a convincing indicator as is the case for the Dollar Index which is traded on the exchange. Also keep in mind that private contracts can be nullified by federal governments. In the case of the USA, when Roosevelt confiscated gold, all contracts that were between two private parties containing a Gold Clause for repayment, were declared illegal and unenforceable by the Supreme Court (see PERRY v. UNITED STATES, 294 U.S. 330 (1935).
Don’t Cry for Me Argentina – It’s a Global Debt Crisis
Armstrong Economics Blog/Emerging Markets
Re-Posted Sep 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Our government here in Argentina has told us we should expect more poverty and there is no hope for the future. Socrates has been amazing on its forecasts on our currency. There are enough of us down here who would sincerely ask would you consider advising Argentina to straighten out our economy and nation? You have forecast this emerging market crisis long before anyone else and your solution video on YouTube is very thought-provoking. If we can demand the government meets with you, would you do it?
KRD
ANSWER: The song maybe Don’t Cry for Me Argentina, but it applies to the entire world for what happens in Argentina is merely the beginning of the global debt crisis. We can see from the chart that the dollar has been soaring. However, the Array picked August as the Panic Cycle and that has been spot on. Unfortunately, it does not look like this is going to calm down. We may be headed into a real Emerging Market crisis by October.
The reason why we are able to forecast such events well in advance is rather common sense. As I have said before, every solution to a crisis sets the stage for the next crisis. The Emerging Market debt crisis is unfolding because central banks in the USA and Europe lowered interest rates to “stimulate” the economy and they have no idea about how an economy truly functions. This is all based upon Keynesianism which is in turn based upon an isolated theory of the economy. They never consider that you lower interest rates and there are pensions who simply need higher rates to break-even. Then emerging markets issued debt in dollars with higher yields for the pension funds bought it assuming there was no currency risk. Now we have Portuguese and Spanish banks who would not lend to their domestic economies for there were way too many nonperforming loans so they ran and bought Turkish debt.
What began in Argentina and Turkey has snowballed into broader collapse complete confidence in Emerging Market debt and the pension funds stopped buying and simply are now trying to get out as fast as they can. This now has officials in Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Brazil scrambling to protect their economies. The debt party is over! The ECB has created a global nightmare for so many European institutions ran into emerging markets because the ECB maintained NEGATIVE rates. Draghi has created a global debt crisis and now he himself is trapped. This is why Italy now wants to change the structure of the ECB so they can buy member debt directly rather than in the secondary market which they have destroyed. Draghi cannot stop Quantitative Easing for the 28 member states will be unable to sell their new-issue debt at rates that are similar to the current levels. Rates will soar in Europe if Draghi actually stopped buying and then we will see a global debt crisis you cannot imagine.
Left unchecked, more nations are going to be swept up in this debt crisis as their bond values collapse. This is threatening the entire world’s economic growth and confidence. As institutions begin to wise up for once, we will see the confidence in public debt collapse. This will become a game of musical chairs and the one left standing with government debt will lose everything!
The Turkish lira, which has been relentlessly setting new all-time lows and this is creating the contagion. Rumors are that Erdogan is such a tyrant, he will sooner turn to Russia and default on all Turkish debt just to retain personal power. Institutional Traders are the first to worry about countries with large current account deficits and a large stock of dollar-denominated debt in a world with rising interest rates and a stronger dollar. But their management often lags and do not listen to their trading desks because they tend to be more politically correct. The phones were actually ringing at the top and it was the ECB telling the banks to stop buying dollars because they were making the dollar rally. You can play those games only for so long before the whole house of cards comes crashing down.
I would be glad to fly to Argentina to help if the pain reaches their eyeballs so they will do as directed to save the country. Half-ass maybe’s are a waste of time. It is only worth it when they realize they have no choice
Silicon Valley Experiencing Net Migrations Outward
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted Sep 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I believe the next migration out of California is now also impacting Silicon Valley. Do you see elements of this moving to Austin Texas as the rumors are here in California?
HY
ANSWER: Yes, the rumors are correct. Silicon Vally if you ranked it as its own nation, it would be in the top 20 in the world even exceeding Switzerland and Saudi Arabia. Most people have no clue the economic significance of Silicon Valley. The real crisis for California is that the net migration has also manifested in Silicon Valley. There were more people leaving Silicon Valley and moving out of state than there were people arriving. In fact, polls taken in the region say that 46% of the people intend to leave which is up from 34% back in 2016. There are now more start-ups beginning to form outside of Silicon Valley. The costs of just setting things up are estimated to be between 4 to 5 times than of places like Austin Texas. The taxes are insane and the State has relied upon the high taxation from this area to support its grand plans elsewhere. It is just too expensive for innovation to take place in this area anymore.
Foreigners Selling UK Debt as Hard BEXIT appears
Armstrong Economics Blog/Pound
Re-Posted Sep 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Foreign investors have been withdrawing on a large scale from British government bonds since July when the Conservatives seems to be splitting. Bank of England data released revealed a net outflow of £17.153 billion from foreigners in July, the largest since records began in 1982, Reuters reports. Even in June, there was still net capital investment from foreigners of 1.362 billion pounds. The decline in foreigners’ holdings is due to sales as well as to non-reinvested, expiring, bonds. According to International Monetary Fund data, the UK has the largest current account deficit of the major industrial nations and is heavily dependent on foreign capital inflows. Theresa May’s refusal to stand firm and defend the people’s vote has seriously undermined the confidence in Britain.
We can see on our Capital Flow Map where we trace the net movement of capital that Britain has turned RED. We have been monitoring the significant net capital flight from Britain thanks to Theresa May. This is also one primary reason it appears that the British pound is still is a distinctive bear market trend with respect to the broader term.
While we did not elect any Monthly or Weekly Bearish Reversals, the pound is still is a broader bearish position at this time.
Happy Labor Day America!!
September 3, 2018
Today is Labor Day 2018.
♦ This Labor Day more Americans are working than ever before in the history of our country. ♦ This Labor Day our economy is growing more than all the pontificating pundits expected. ♦ This Labor Day our unemployment rate is the lowest in our lifetime. ♦This Labor Day there are more jobs available for American workers than ever before. ♦This Labor Day wages are increasing at a faster rate than at any time in the past three decades. ♦ This Labor Day inflation is growing at a lower rate than wages are increasing. ♦This Labor Day productivity is growing faster than any time in the past decade. ♦This Labor Day 323 metropolitan areas have the lowest unemployment ever. ♦This Labor Day consumer optimism is higher than anyone has ever recorded. ♦This Labor Day high-paying manufacturing jobs are growing at the highest rate in five decades.
This Labor Day is our first MAGA labor day.
…And we’ve only just begun!
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