Tag Archives: The Forecaster

Sep 10 2018

Pattern Repeats – Political Imprisonment followed by Leadership


Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece

Re-Posted Sep 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

I really do not think people realize that they are just extras in a political film which is an endless struggle for freedom. There is a book written by Oriana Fallaci which began as an interview of Allesandro Panagoulis. Oriana was a journalist who was interviewing fourteen contemporary political leaders, which included Henry Kissinger, Meir, Arafat, Indira Gandhi, and the Shah of Iran. She sought to understand their personal attitudes and propensities that brought them to such status. She called this an Interview with History.

In the course of her investigations, she wrote A Man about Allesandro Panagoulis who stood up against the dictatorship and oppression of the Greek people. He was imprisoned and tortured for years. Most were stunned that he even survived this treatment. Like Nelson Mandella, the same pattern of imprisonment was followed by the fall of the government and a rebirth back to democracy. Panagoulis took an active role in the fight against the Regime of the Colonels (1967–1974) in Greece. He became famous for his attempt to assassinate dictator Georgios Papadopoulos on August 13th, 1968, and the subsequent endless torture. However, following the collapse of the dictatorship government, democracy was reborn. This is when Panagoulis was elected to the Greek parliament as a member of the Center Union.

Panagoulis discovered that the very people who had tortured him were then pretending to be democrats. Allesandro systematically began to investigate the corruption in the police and the political government. Just two days before all the files of the junta’s military police (the “E.A.T.-E.S.A. file”) he announced would be released, he was assassinated.  One of the methods to assassinate a leader so he is not made into a hero is to create what appears to always be an accident. On the 1st of May 1976, a car accident was staged on Vouliagmenis Avenue in Athens. A car drove extremely fast and directed its path to impact Panagoulis. Without a choice and counting on a human reflex, Panagoulis’ car and forced to divert and crash in which he was said to have been killed almost instantaneously. The files never materialized to support the collaboration of corruption of the police in league with Greek officers who worked with Nazi Germany in World War II. These men who killed Greeks served in the Security Battalions who fought for the Germans in 1943-1944. These very people were those who were the leaders of the Colonels’ Regime of 1967-1974 and were torturing Panagoulis. There are no such coincidences in these types of affairs.

Sep 10 2018

Swedish Elections Shift to the Right


Armstrong Economics Blog/Scandinavia

Re-Posted Sep 9, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Swedish election has shifted to the right thanks to the Refugee Crisis. The Social Democrats came in with the worst result in decades and the right-wing populists have risen to their best results since their inception. Although the Social Democrats escaped a complete disaster in the parliamentary elections, they have lost a lot to the right-wing populists. The party of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven appears to remain in place. Meanwhile, the currency still appears lower as we move forward in time.

Categories: Scandinavia
Sep 9 2018

Influence & Ranks


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Sep 9, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; Did you know that your site is listed in the top 20 economic sites in the world? You are in the top 20 with Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, London FT, and even  Brookings Ben Bernanke’s Blog. The rest of the list includes the Economic Policy Institute, Economics & Statistics Administration, and The Berkeley Blog Business & Economics. You may be a lot more influential than you portray.

JS

REPLY: Perhaps. But keep in mind that your enemies always read you because they need to know what you are saying now to feed their hatred. Aside from that, every intelligence service reads our work. They understand there is a cycle to everything and ever since the London FT reported I warned Russia would collapse just before the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management collapse on Russian bonds, they all pay close attention.

Sep 8 2018

U.S-Canada Trade Talks Ongoing – Canada’s Dairy Tariffs and Demands for Exemptions on “Cultural Industries” Still at Issue….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 7, 2018 by

In case anyone was wondering, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is in Europe talking trade with the European Union.  Within the delegation of trade negotiation, the EU trade agreement is designated to Ross, while USTR Lighthizer covers Canada and Mexico and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is holding point on China.  Secretary Ross is getting the royalty treatment in Greece today.

Meanwhile, Ambassador Robert Lighthizer is still engaged with Chrystia from Canada as negotiations continue to see if a U.S-Canada trade deal is possible.  He must have the patience of Job. The 52,000 lost Canadian jobs announced today has shifted the landscape a little.  Canada appears slightly more likely to back-away from prior demands to carve out the Canadian Dairy industry and continue the process of protectionist tariffs.

Ms. Freeland is heading back to Canada tonight, leaving her negotiation team in DC to continue working.  However, Canada still demands to exempt their “cultural industries”, telecommunications and media sectors, from any trade agreement. The issues for Canada to join the U.S-Mexico agreement are/were:

  • open their telecommunications and banking sector (eliminate non tariff barriers).
  • eliminate soft-wood (lumber) and aeronautics federal subsidies.
  • begin a process of lowering their assembly use of Chinese/Asian goods.
  • accept the rules of origin for North American manufacturing.
  • eliminate protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products.
  • accept the U.S-Mexico terms for arbitration and dispute resolution.

The Telecommunications/media sector is non-negotiable according to Justin from Canada. There may be flexibility within banking (not much information).  The lumber and aeronautics subsidies could be dropped.  Rules of origin are non-negotiable for President Trump.  Protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products are the current issue being discussed.  Dispute resolution is an outstanding issue.

CANADA / WASHINGTON — The vexing issue of securing more American access to Canadian dairy remained a major obstacle in NAFTA negotiations as Canada’s lead minister on the continental trade pact departed the U.S. capital Friday.

Larry Kudlow, the director of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, laid that out in the plainest terms possible during a televised interview Friday morning, hours before talks ended between Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland her U.S. counterpart, trade czar Robert Lighthizer.

Freeland had come to Washington this week in an attempt to break the impasse in the 13-month renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was started at Trump’s behest.

A senior government official, briefing reporters on background, said Freeland was departing Washington on Friday night, but would keep in touch with Lighthizer. Canadian and American negotiators would continue to meet, the official added. (more)

Chrystia Freeland remarks.

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Robert Lighthizer won’t discuss anything with the media; however, Larry Kudlow discusses some of the issues:

Sep 8 2018

NEC Chairman Larry Kudlow Discusses Stunning U.S. Economic Position….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 7, 2018 by

Earlier today National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appeared on CNBC for an extensive interview about the current U.S. economy. Jobs growing; wages growing; economy growing; trade deals improving…. Lots of good MAGAnomic stuff:

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(Via CNBC) White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow is extremely optimistic about the U.S. economy.

“The economic boom continues,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” Friday, citing the August jobs report and the month’s wage gain data. “It’s the big story of 2018. Jobs, growth, wages. It doesn’t get much better than that.”

The August jobs report came in above expectations Friday. The U.S. economy created 201,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for the month versus the 191,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Reuters. Average hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent for the month on an annualized basis, the highest since April 2009.

Kudlow also referenced other recent reports as evidence for the strong economy.

“Wages are rising very very well. This is great stuff. And it’s widespread,” he said. “ISM manufacturing BOOM! ISM services BOOM! There is no let up to this. Consumer spending, we’re probably emerging into a capital goods boom right now … This is the take-off.”

Last month, the government said GDP grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, the fastest pace in nearly four years.

Kudlow is director of the National Economic Council and is one of President Donald Trump’s top advisors.  (more)

Sep 8 2018

Trump Threatens to Cancel NAFTA If Congress Interferes


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade

Re-Posted Sep 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Do you agree with Trump that if he canceled NAFTA, the United States would be better off?

SN

ANSWER: Ironically – YES from a jobs perspective, not the consumer. What you have to understand is that these trade deals are all nonsense. They are NOT Free Trade in the least. They are compromises so politicians can pretend they have accomplished something.

Take the deal with Europe. France’s position was that nothing can be called “Champagne” unless it comes from that region in France. Every trade negotiation is a compromise that maintains protectionism. In that regard, if Trump actually canceled NAFTA, his boast that the US would be better off is meant that all products would then be subjected to tariffs and all of the American industry would be protected.

Now, that said, this view is that of the worker – not the consumer. All of these trade negotiations are one-sided. They are always focused only on jobs and not producing the best price for the consumer which in turn raises our standard of living. I have never encountered even one politician who has EVER defended the consumer in trade deals. This violates the principle of Comparative Advantage put forth by David Ricardo. It’s true that Saudi Arabia could grow lettuce but the cost of irrigation in the desert would make the cost 10 times more than simply buying it from Europe or North America. It would cost the consumer far more to simply grow that product in the desert than importing so it is best to buy it elsewhere and focus on your productive capacity in which you have some comparative advantage over others.

Sep 8 2018

Canadian Economy Loses 51,600 Jobs in August – Biggest Drop in Decade…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 7, 2018 by

The U.S. economy added 201,000 jobs in August. The U.S. unemployment rate is 3.9%.  And year-over-year U.S. wage growth jumped to 2.9%. [Bureau of Labor and Statistics Link]

Meanwhile, the Canadian economy dropped 51,600 jobs in August.  The unemployment rate increased to 6%. And year-over-year wage growth dropped to 2.6%.

CANADA – The net loss in August — which was the second largest monthly decline since the last recession — drove the unemployment rate to 6 per cent, from 5.8 per cent a month earlier, while wage gains decelerated to their slowest this year.

Economists had expected a gain of 5,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.9 per cent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.  So far in 2018, the Canadian economy has shed 14,600 jobs. (read more)

In the media analysis Bloomberg talks down the strength of the U.S. economy, and tries to dismiss the scale of the economic growth in America.  Simultaneously, the same Bloomberg media outlet calls the Canadian results “whacky” and “unexpected” and makes excuses for the miserable economic results.  Huh, imagine that.

Pro-growth; pro-business; small government; lower regulation; pro-economic expansion; -vs- Big government; anti-business; choking regulations; and low economic expansion.

Any questions?

Sep 7 2018

Jumpin’ Ju-Ju Bones: Massive Collapse in Brand Image for Nike Following New Colin Kaepernick Branding Campaign…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 6, 2018 by

Never before in the history of corporate branding decisions has a multi-billion dollar company had such a massive and swift drop of brand image as Nike.  The results from Morning Consult Intelligence, a firm that specializes in monitoring and measuring the brand image and reputation for thousands of major companies, reflects a massive drop in brand image across every single demographic.

We suspected there would be a diminishment of brand image, but nothing like the scale discovered within the polled data:

The report features over 8,000 interviews conducted among American adults, including 1,694 interviews pre-campaign launch (8/26/18 – 9/3/18) and 5,481 interviews post-campaign launch (9/4/18 – 9/5/18). Additionally, Morning Consult conducted a study among 1,168 adults in the U.S. about Nike’s ad and the decision to choose Kaepernick as the face of the campaign.

  • Nike’s Favorability Drops by Double Digits: Before the announcement, Nike had a net +69 favorable impression among consumers, it has now declined 34 points to +35 favorable.

  • No Boost Among Key Demos: Among younger generations, Nike users, African Americans, and other key demographics, Nike’s favorability declined rather than improved.
  • Purchasing Consideration Also Down: Before the announcement, 49 percent of Americans said they were absolutely certain or very likely to buy Nike products. That figure is down to 39 percent now.

FULL Polling Data Available Here

From a pure economic/financial perspective this Nike  branding campaign doesn’t make sense.  On its face, it just seems absurd. Why would any major corporation intentionally stake out a branding position that is adverse to their financial interests?

The most likely answer is HERE

Sep 7 2018

President Trump MAGA Rally Billings, Montana – 9:00pm EST Livestream


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 6, 2018 by

Today President Trump travels to Billings, Montana to host a MAGA campaign rally for the 2018 Mid-Terms. The rally is scheduled for 7:00pm Mountain time, 9:00 pm Eastern. With all of the recent headline news this is sure to be a dynamic rally.

UPDATE: Video Added

RSBN Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link – Fox10 Livestream Link