Published on Mar 23, 2016
Published on Apr 9, 2012
Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis
Re-Posted May 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
In Berne, Switzerland, there has been a redistribution in occupational pensions which has revealed that it too is not a funded pensions plan as people previously assumed. For at least twelve years, pension fund monies have flowed from the employed to the pensioners. The amount has reached a tremendous scale with funds in the order of more than 90 billion francs being redistributed during these years. This is the result of data collected by PPC Metrics, the pension advisor for the SonntagsZeitung.
The AHV pension scheme is heavily redistributed in the pay-as-you-go system, but the occupational pension schemes should have been fully funded. With low-interest rates, the presumed fully funded occupational pension plan is now also operating as a Ponzi scheme. The prospect of future payments has been called into question
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted May 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
UBS will charge a 2 franc fee for withdrawing cash at the bank counter beginning in July, be it a withdrawal in CHF from a UBS private account or from a UBS current account. Thus, UBS stands (at least for now) pretty much alone. A survey of various institutions revealed that hardly any banks charge cash for cash withdrawals at the counter. One of the few exceptions is the Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB). Exceptions to this rule are customers with a private or savings account of the “ZKB inclusive base” package. These customers pay 5 francs for payments at the counter in francs or foreign currencies. However, industry observers expect other banks to follow UBS’s example soon, given the pressure on earnings.
Re-Posted May 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
on Sept 12th 2013 you wrote about the ‘Return of the crusades’. Now, 6 years later, with the massive migrant crisis still ongoing, a lot of people consider leaving Western Europe bc Sharia law is looming everywhere. Mohammed takes the first place for baby names in many countries, sharia law spreads, kindergartens don’t serve pork anymore, Easter festivities in school get canceled bc of Ramadan, rapists and even murderers don’t go to jail bc neither the executive nor the judicative has capacities anymore to even open a trial and so on. At the moment, it looks as if Western Europe will become a caliphate within the next decade or two. With Migrants still flooding the continent and the birth jihad, it seems Europeans/Christians will vanish in the foreseeable future. I would like to know what Socrates has to say about this… will there be a counterstrike? Or a religious war? Right-wing parties rise everywhere, so the Europeans ARE fed up. But is there even enough TIME to turn things around…?
What do the cycles say?
Thx and cheers,
ANSWER: Unfortunately, the cycle of religious tension is also due in 2021/2022. The first recorded persecution of Christians took place under Emperor Nero who blamed them for setting the great fire in Rome. The base cycle on a major shift in religion turned up in 1990, which was 224 cycles of 8.6 from 64 AD. Add pi, 31.4 years, and we arrive at 2021/2022. Nevertheless, there was also rising tension with Islam itself. This I laid out in the 2015 Cycle of War report. When the economy turns down, that is when tensions rise. There was the religious war in Christianity known as the Byzantine Iconoclasm, which existed between about 726 and 787 AD. The peak before the war came 72 cycles of 8.6 from the Nero persecution of 64 AD. Then 96 cycles later we come to Martin Luther in 1517 when he posted 95 theses on the church door in the university town of Wittenberg. Cyclically right on time, in 1534 King Henry VIII declared himself to be supreme head of the Church of England. This resulted in a schism with the Papacy and began the events known as the English Reformation.
It appears we are building toward 2021/2022 when things are going to begin to get heated on a religious basis.
The White House gave some advanced information about President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump’s upcoming state visit to the United Kingdom; which includes trips to Ireland and France. [Trip Date: June *3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th.]
[*Anticipate Pelosi announcing “impeachment inquiry” on Monday June 3rd]
[White House] PRESS OFFICER: Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for joining us for this background call on the President’s upcoming trip to the UK, Ireland, and France. This will be on background, attributable to a senior administration official.
Joining us today is [senior administration officials]. They will provide a brief trip overview at the start, and then we’ll be able to take your questions.
So at this point, I’ll turn it over to [senior administration official].
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Thank you so much. I’ll just make a couple of brief remarks and then turn over to my colleague for some of the details.
As everyone is aware, this is a very important trip to United Kingdom for several reasons. The timing is obviously pretty crucial. It gives evidence to the fact that the special relationship between the U.S. and the UK is real and enduring. As the President himself has said, “It’s a bond like no other.”
And given the fact that we’re commemorating the 75th anniversary of D-Day, this is a key time to honor our shared sacrifice and our shared service, both during World War Two, and in the many years since in all the endeavors that we’ve shared together.
The President and First Lady have a pretty packed schedule and my colleague will give you now some of the details. Thank you.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Thanks. So the President and First Lady will arrive in London on June 3rd. The Queen will host them at Buckingham Palace for an arrival ceremony there, where they will have the opportunity to meet some other members of the Royal Family and Royal (inaudible).
They will also have an opportunity to visit Westminster Abbey later that day. They will plan to lay a wreath at the grave of the Unknown Warrior.
Later that evening, the Queen will host a state dinner in honor of the President.
On June 4th, the President will have a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister May. They also will have an opportunity to have an interaction with American and British business leaders.
And that evening, the President will host a dinner at Winfield House, which is the ambassador’s residence in London.
On the 5th of June, the President will travel to Portsmouth to participate in a 75th commemoration to mark the 75th anniversary of D-Day and to honor the service and sacrifice of so many Americans and our allies there.
Then, later that day, he will travel to Ireland. In Ireland, he’ll have an opportunity to have a bilateral meeting with the Taoiseach, the Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Varadkar.
Then, the following day, on June 6th, the President will travel to Normandy where he will participate in a commemoration of the 75th anniversary of D-Day at the Normandy American Cemetery. And he also will have a bilateral meeting with President Macron.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Yeah, I just — not to wrap up before hearing your questions, but there is no better time to have a state visit to the United Kingdom than the 75th anniversary of D-Day. It’s also very special to be able to commemorate the events of D-Day on both sides of the English Channel, in Portsmouth and then in Caen, in Normandy.
We’ll be there in both instances with many of the allies who shared the sacrifices of those important operations. So the D-Day landings on all of the Normandy beaches and all the (inaudible) set off in Portsmouth.
And this, obviously, honors the special relationship but also this very deep history — a very personal history for some of the people who are in attendance in the presidential delegation. And some of our senior leadership have family members who participated in D-Day. I think that will be on all sides, actually, not just the UK and the U.S., but with some of the other allies who will join in Portsmouth and (inaudible).
So we share a deep history, and it was in the case of the of the United Kingdom that called the relationship with the United States as solid and strong. And this is what we want to demonstrate with this state visit and also the continued cooperation on global and regional security issues, which we will be discussing in the bilateral meeting and in many of the other events.
So thank you for joining us. And again, this is a preview of all of the events that will be happening next week, but we’d be happy to answer whatever questions you might have at this stage. Thank you.
Q Emily Purser from Sky News. Thanks for this for this call. Could I ask if there have been any contacts or discussions with Boris Johnson and his team, and Nigel Farage and his team, for a meeting in the President’s private time whilst in the London?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Not that we’re aware of, no.
Q Hi, this is Patsy Widakuswara with Voice of America. Thank you for taking my call. So my question is to [senior administration official]. You mentioned that the timing is crucial and gives evidence to support the special relationship. Other than to commemorate D-Day, can you explain what you mean by that, given that the Prime Minister is resigning on June 7, and the British public is so absorbed in their own political turmoil as well as Brexit?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, I think actually that that underscores why this timing is crucial, because the relationship isn’t just based on personalities. It’s based on the long-shared service and shared sacrifice. And that’s — you know, what 75 years of D-Day really underscores.
I mean, obviously, it was the case during World War Two that those personal relationship between Roosevelt and Churchill played an important role. But beyond that, this is really an enduring alliance.
And the dates for D-day are pretty fixed. This is the 75th commemoration, and we felt — all of us — that is extremely important. The President has said this over and over again about the unshakeable bond between the two countries.
But even in the most difficult times, where you may have political upheaval and uncertainty, that we need to stand together shoulder to shoulder. And that’s what we will be demonstrating in Portsmouth and during the meetings that we’ll have here in London.
Q Hi, this is Heather Timmons from Quartz. Can you tell us a little bit more about the size of the presidential delegation, and particularly which of his family members are going and how long they’ll be going for?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I mean, I’m not entirely sure, at this point, about how long everyone else is staying here. And the delegation was, I think, already officially issued, and an announcement was made.
But I would refer you down to the White House Press as we move forward into this. And, I mean, you’ll see, you know, for yourselves when everybody arrives here on Monday.
Q Hi, (inaudible) from BBC News. Is it possible that Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage have been invited to the ambassador’s banquet that he’s hosting at Winfield House?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I don’t actually have the invitation list or the details for this. So, again, let’s wait until we have the official announcements from our press office and from the embassy about the list. I mean, these are fairly closely held at this moment.
Q Sure. But will we get the names of the invitees to the banquet?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Yeah, I’m honestly not sure about that. I’m afraid that’s not information that we have here. Again, I would just refer you back to the White House Press Office.
Q Has there been any interest in the (inaudible) meeting? Has the White House expressed any interest in meeting Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage, when they’re over in London?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I mean, (inaudible) somebody asked about this in his interview yesterday. And I think, you know, he expressed his views and opinions on both those gentlemen and many others when he was pressed in the interview. So I think we’ll just let the President’s comments about that stand.
Q Hello, this is Alexei (inaudible) with RIA Novosti, Russian News Agency. I just would like to ask whether White House knows of any invitation to Russia to take part in the festivities in Normandy. And, if so, whether President Trump plans to have any interaction with President Putin. Thank you.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: We’re not aware of any invitation that was extended by the French government, so I’d have to refer you to them on that. And we have not made any preparations for any kind of meeting between the presidents in Normandy — that being President Putin and President Trump, just to clarify. There will be a bilateral with President Macron, however, in Normandy.
Q Hi. Emily (inaudible) with DailyMail.com. I want to follow up on some of the schedule for the Trump family. Specifically, is Ivanka Trump going to join the President and the Prime Minister at the business leaders’ breakfast on Tuesday? And does she have any separate meetings scheduled? And also, does the First Lady have any separate events scheduled from the President?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I don’t have further detail to announce here or to share here about other members of the family and what other meetings that they may or may not have. Similarly, you know, we’re not going to detail the list of individuals who are going to participate in each of the President’s meetings. We can — we’ll leave it with an overview of the meeting that the President will have and the events that he will attend and engage in.
Q So we’re not — can’t get any details on what the President’s kids will be doing during this visit?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: That, I would refer you to the White House press team for further — possible further details that they may or may not be able to share about President Trump’s family.
Q Hi, this is Dmitry Kirsanov from TASS. I believe I have a question for [senior administration official]. I just wanted to ask if you could tell us a bit more about the agenda of the meeting between President Trump and President Macron. For instance, if they’re going to discuss Russia, Syria, Ukraine. Do we expect any deliverables out of that? Thank you.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Just to be clear that this is obviously a bilateral meeting on the size of an important commemoration of a major anniversary, so we’ve kept the schedule for this quite light. We can imagine that there will, you know, at least touching upon some of the major issues that are on our bilateral agenda. But at this point, we don’t have any further details.
Q Hi, this is Francesca Chambers from DailyMail.com. I just wanted to ask a couple of logistical questions in addition to that question. I didn’t hear anything about a press conference with either Theresa May or with Emmanuel Macron. So if you could confirm that there is no press conference, that would be really helpful for us.
But also, if you could just talk a little bit more about the relationship between Theresa May and President Trump. You said that there was no better time to hold this meeting. But her last day will be just two days after President Trump will be there. And so I’m wondering why perhaps this wasn’t put off until there was a new prime minister.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, you can’t really put off D-Day and the commemoration. So — and again, you know, we’ve been planning this for many months. And it’s a very important event to commemorate, and that’s what we mean by that there’s no better time. And the President himself said this at his own press interview yesterday. And he also expressed his deep respect for Theresa May.
And, you know, there are many things for them to still talk about, whether it will be (inaudible) on the bilateral agenda between the U.S. and the United Kingdom.
There’s going to be press — on your other question — at the various events and at their meeting. And I think, again, our White House press colleagues will be able to give you more details as we get closer to the President’s departure.
But understand that we’re very careful about the details (inaudible) for security reasons.
Q Hey, this is Ryan Kessler from ABC News. When you ran through some of the logistics, I did not hear you mention on Tuesday if the President and Theresa May are holding a joint news conference. Is that still taking place?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The answer is the same as I made before: that we will have press availability at the various events and at the meeting. And again, we’ll let our colleagues at the White House Press give you more details at we get closer.
Q Hello, this is (inaudible) WATV. We’re wondering if Meghan will be in attendance.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Who will be? I’m sorry, I didn’t catch you.
Q The Dutchess. The Dutchess, Meghan. If she will be attendance.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Oh, I’m afraid we’re not really sure at this particular stage about who will be attendance from the UK side. I mean, again, that would be better addressed, I think, to the UK government and to perhaps the Buckingham Palace press people.
Q Okay, thank you.
Q Hello, it’s Brian O’Donovan here from Irish TV station RTE. Just a couple of questions about the Irish leg of the journey. Can you confirm that the bilateral with the Taoiseach is the only public event in Ireland? Can you give us any color on what they might be likely to discuss? How long is Donald Trump likely to stay in Ireland? And is he going to try and get a round of golf while he’s at his golf resort in County Clare? Thank you.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The bilateral meeting between the President and the Taoiseach is the only public event that we have to announce at this time.
Obviously, they will have a range of bilateral issues to discuss, as well as shared international interests and priorities. And I won’t speculate on whether or not the President will have an opportunity to get into a round of golf.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Just a quick flag, as well, that the President and the Taoiseach saw each other in March, so they’ll probably pick up on some of the issues they discussed then when the Taoiseach was over for the annual St. Patrick’s Day commemorations and a (inaudible) bilateral there with the President.
Q Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for doing this call. This is Anne Guerin with the Washington Post. Also a couple of logistical matters. Is it correct that there’s no longer a carriage procession planned in London? And can you tell us a bit about that? Is that due to protest? What is your view of the protests planned for London? Is this at all concerning? Or does the President feel insulted by it?
And then, separately, on the Normandy part, is the President not staying for the evening program? It’s not clear to me that he’s going to be there on into the evening for Macron’s large event around dinnertime. Thank you.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: So, for the arrival ceremony, there will be an arrival ceremony at Buckingham Palace. You know, the exact details I won’t get into — get into that. But there will be an arrival ceremony at Buckingham Palace as was seen in some previous state visits of U.S. presidents to the UK.
With respect to Normandy — so, the President will be participating in the commemoration at the Normandy American Cemetery, which will take place midday. And he will have a bilateral meeting with President Macron. And that’s all that we have to announce about the President’s schedule.
If there’s a question about what else the French government might be organizing, we’d have to refer you to them.
Q Yes, but my question wasn’t so much about what the French government is organizing. I mean, other leaders are attending this evening program. Will President Trump be among them?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I don’t believe he is attending the evening program.
But again, just to emphasize, the whole event is structured around the American Cemetery. And it was very important for the President to be able to commemorate the sacrifice of U.S. servicemen as well as the Allies during D-Day.
And he made it very clear, and he said this in some of this interviews, that he wanted to keep his focus less on, you know, larger events with other leaders and more on the actual servicemen themselves.
So we have kept our events very much focused on the cemetery, and then, of course, (inaudible). And there’s a lot to discuss with President Macron, to have a bilateral with him as well.
Q And on the protests? Is that worrisome to you all?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: We haven’t talked about this at all, to be frank. But it hasn’t been (inaudible) by our UK host either.
Q Hi, it’s Margaret Talev at Bloomberg. Thank you for doing the call. I’m wondering if we can touch on two issues. Huawei — what you’re expecting. Or will press — given May’s sort of timetable, how much you intend to press for a commitment or a stance from the UK?
And trade writ large — can you really get anything done, or not, until Brexit?
And I also want to go back one more time to Anne’s question, which is to say we’re all writing stories about the protesters. And I know this is probably a politically delicate question for you guys, but hoping you can answer. Is the President upset by protestors? Or does he think that’s sort of a vibrant part of democracy and whatever? He had a taste of that at the last visit with the big floating balloon. Are you — is he cool with that? Or does he have issues with that? They may be at the airport, at Shannon, for the bilat. They may be all over the city. How does he actually feel about this?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, I think the President can speak for himself, (inaudible) have on previous occasions. And, you know, can you can ask him as he’s leaving. But he hasn’t made any — certainly any comments that we’ve seen that show any particular concern about this issue.
In terms of the other issues you described about trade, that’s obviously going to be on the agenda. But you have to also remember that the President’s discussions with Prime Minister May come against the backdrop of a continuous set of engagements and interactions between U.S. and UK counterparts.
And so, although they will obviously discuss these issues, we’ve already been thoroughly exploring them over the course of several months now. So I don’t think that this is going to be some major earth-shattering breakthrough on any of the issues that you described. But we’ll be discussing the broader end of international, as well as our bilateral issues during the meeting. And then, obviously, setting the stage for continued discussions with whoever succeeds the Prime Minister over the next several months.
Q Have you guys advised the President on whether or not it’s appropriate to weigh in on who the next PM should be? Or will he stay out of it?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The Prime Minister — sorry, I mean, the President was already asked about those questions yesterday in his press conference, and I think he made his position clear on that, that he wasn’t going to be drawn into any speculation.
Q Hi, this is (inaudible). Can I just check, with May, will he be discussing Huawei and the issues about Huawei, especially with the UK saying it is allowing Huawei to operate? And in France, will we be sure that Trump is going to be make it to the cemetery? The last time he was here, he actually didn’t make it (inaudible) cemetery.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I’m sorry, I didn’t hear the last point there. But in terms of the trade issues, you know, obviously there will be a full-ranging discussion here. And we can’t, obviously, prefigure how the details — nature of the call is going to be in advance. But, you know, we have a full agenda that’s being prepared on both sides. So, you know, we’ll be able to — obviously, you’ll be able to ask questions about this after the meeting as well, in the various press opportunities.
Q And will there be more pressure piled onto the UK? We’ve heard that there’s potential threats that there won’t be any information sharing. Is that something that the President is going to use in his leverage to try and get the UK to block out Huawei?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Again, we’re getting ahead of ourselves in discussions, but we continue to have very serious and in-depth discussions with our UK colleagues on this and all these other topics as well. They’re very frank. And the UK has every ample opportunity to lay out its positions and — for a full exchange. So I don’t think we need to over-dramatize this in any way.
Q Hi, this is Sally Bronson (ph) with NBC News. You’ve mentioned a few times that the President did an interview yesterday where he discussed aspects of the trip. Could you speak further about that? Was that was UK or French press? And is that — who specifically? And is that something that is going — is it still under embargo? Is it going to be released? I was just a little confused about that, so I’m wondering if you could clarify, please.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, I think we’d have to turn that over to White House staff. We saw, ourselves, kind of a quick review of some of this. It was a Q&A that he gave in press. So there was a number of things. I think some of it has come out on the White House Press. Perhaps our colleagues can comment on that.
Q So there was nothing specific — no interview at least that you’re aware of — that he gave specifically to UK or French press that has not yet been released?
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: (Inaudible) in the United States, I don’t believe there was anything on French press. I’d have to defer to our colleagues at the NSC and White House Press if there was anything additional that you’re referring to. But this is in a various Q&A that he’s given with other press outlets yesterday.
PRESS OFFICER: I know one of the references that my colleague mentioned earlier were comments that the President made at a press gaggle. So if there are other things coming out, you’ll see them in the press. But we don’t have anything else to announce regarding that at this time.
Q Okay, understood. There were a few references to interviews, and I just wanted to make sure we had all of that. So, thank you.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: That’s because I’m not a (inaudible), so I incorrectly referred to interviews because I was thinking about the Q&A and the press gaggle. I guess I’ll have to get — I think these guys are going to have to kick me into shape into using the right terminology. So I apologize for any confusion there.
Q All good. Thank you very much for answering.
Jumpin’ ju-ju bones, President Trump has just announced an emergency tariff program on all Mexican goods that begins on June 10th at 5% and continues to increase monthly until Mexico takes action to halt illegal Central American migration.
Tariff Schedule: ♦5% effective June 10th ♦10% effective July 1st ♦15% effective August 1st ♦20% effective September 1st ♦25% effective October 1st, and continuing therein until Mexico takes action to stop the flow of Central American migrants.
Details from the White House: As everyone knows, the United States of America has been invaded by hundreds of thousands of people coming through Mexico and entering our country illegally.
This sustained influx of illegal aliens has profound consequences on every aspect of our national life—overwhelming our schools, overcrowding our hospitals, draining our welfare system, and causing untold amounts of crime. Gang members, smugglers, human traffickers, and illegal drugs and narcotics of all kinds are pouring across the Southern Border and directly into our communities. Thousands of innocent lives are taken every year as a result of this lawless chaos. It must end NOW!
Mexico’s passive cooperation in allowing this mass incursion constitutes an emergency and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States. Mexico has very strong immigration laws and could easily halt the illegal flow of migrants, including by returning them to their home countries. Additionally, Mexico could quickly and easily stop illegal aliens from coming through its southern border with Guatemala.
For decades, the United States has suffered the severe and dangerous consequences of illegal immigration. Sadly, Mexico has allowed this situation to go on for many years, growing only worse with the passage of time. From a safety, national security, military, economic, and humanitarian standpoint, we cannot allow this grave disaster to continue.
The current state of affairs is profoundly unfair to the American taxpayer, who bears the extraordinary financial cost imposed by large-scale illegal migration. Even worse is the terrible and preventable loss of human life. Some of the most deadly and vicious gangs on the planet operate just across our border and terrorize innocent communities.
Mexico must step up and help solve this problem. We welcome people who come to the United States legally, but we cannot allow our laws to be broken and our borders to be violated. For years, Mexico has not treated us fairly—but we are now asserting our rights as a sovereign Nation.
To address the emergency at the Southern Border, I am invoking the authorities granted to me by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Accordingly, starting on June 10, 2019, the United States will impose a 5 percent Tariff on all goods imported from Mexico.
If the illegal migration crisis is alleviated through effective actions taken by Mexico, to be determined in our sole discretion and judgment, the Tariffs will be removed. If the crisis persists, however, the Tariffs will be raised to 10 percent on July 1, 2019.
Similarly, if Mexico still has not taken action to dramatically reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens crossing its territory into the United States, Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019. Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory.
Workers who come to our country through the legal admissions process, including those working on farms, ranches, and in other businesses, will be allowed easy passage.
If Mexico fails to act, Tariffs will remain at the high level, and companies located in Mexico may start moving back to the United States to make their products and goods. Companies that relocate to the United States will not pay the Tariffs or be affected in any way.
Over the years, Mexico has made massive amounts of money in its dealings with the United States, and this includes the tremendous number of jobs leaving our country.
Should Mexico choose not to cooperate on reducing unlawful migration, the sustained imposition of Tariffs will produce a massive return of jobs back to American cities and towns. Remember, our great country has been the “piggy bank” from which everybody wants only to TAKE. The difference is that now we are firmly and forcefully standing up for America’s interests.
We have confidence that Mexico can and will act swiftly to help the United States stop this long-term, dangerous, and deeply unfair problem. The United States has been very good to Mexico for many years. We are now asking that Mexico immediately do its fair share to stop the use of its territory as a conduit for illegal immigration into our country.
The cartels and coyotes are having a greater and greater impact on the Mexican side of our Southern Border. This is a dire threat that must be decisively eliminated. Billions of dollars are made, and countless lives are ruined, by these ruthless and merciless criminal organizations. Mexico must bring law and order to its side of the border.
Democrats in Congress are fully aware of this horrible situation and yet refuse to help in any way, shape, or form. This is a total dereliction of duty. The migrant crisis is a calamity that must now be solved—and can easily be solved—in Congress. Our broken asylum laws, court system, catch-and-release, visa lottery, chain migration, and many other loopholes can all be promptly corrected. When that happens, the measures being announced today can be more readily reduced or removed.
The United States is a great country that can no longer be exploited due to its foolish and irresponsible immigration laws. For the sake of our people, and for the sake of our future, these horrendous laws must be changed now.
At the same time, Mexico cannot allow hundreds of thousands of people to pour over its land and into our country—violating the sovereign territory of the United States. If Mexico does not take decisive measures, it will come at a significant price.
We therefore look forward to, and appreciate, the swift and effective actions that we hope Mexico will immediately install.
As President of the United States, my highest duty is the defense of the country and its citizens. A nation without borders is not a nation at all. I will not stand by and allow our sovereignty to be eroded, our laws to be trampled, or our borders to be disrespected anymore.
I can’t stop laughing when I think about BMW and the German ‘splodey heads.
German automaker BMW invested $2 billion in Mexico (plant recently finished) as part of a prior plan/strategy to utilize the NAFTA loophole and gain access to the U.S. market. They are building cars there. Can you imagine how much a BMW will cost with another 25% added to the price of the finished product. LOL…
Hell, the Germans might end up being the South Mexico border patrol.
Vice-President Mike Pence traveled to Canada today as an emissary of the Trump administration to support Canadian passage of the USMCA trade agreement.
According to Reuters media reports the vice-president was focused on the importance of a strong North American economic alliance, and how a united tri-lateral agreement can form a geopolitical hedge against influence from communist China and socialist ideologies in Cuba and Venezuela. Justin from Canada expressed his perspectives over diminished women’s rights, U.S. abortion laws, the important contributions of a transgender workforce, climate change and the NBA championship playoffs…. Yes, really:
Meanwhile in Mexico: “The Senate, controlled by Lopez Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) and its allies, should approve the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) once it has passed through congressional committee, the president said.” (link)
Compare and contrast…
The Canadian window is short, if they don’t ratify the USMCA trade pact by the end of June, the Canadian parliament will go into legislative recess until after the general elections October 21st, 2019. Justin and Chrystia demand to be courted…
Meanwhile in Mexico:
[…] The Mexican Senate is not currently in session, but the government said special periods would be held to pass USMCA.
Lopez Obrador said he was “optimistic” the trade deal, which U.S. President Donald Trump had pushed for, would be approved in the U.S. Congress. The Mexican president said he did not expect major difficulties to arise in its U.S. passage. (link)
It will be interesting to watch what happens.
Factually and ideologically, throughout the entire trade discussion, the Trudeau administration has put anti-Trump politics ahead of the Canadian economy. The economic stagnation in Canada is a direct result.
On-one-hand Princess Freeland and Prince Sparkle Socks need to get their economy back on track; however, that means proceeding with ratification of the USMCA which is against their ideological interests.
On-the-other-hand Freeland and Trudeau do not want to support President Trump in any manner or form. The hatred of Trump is palpable and visible. Their hatred of Trump, and public pronouncements therein, is also part of their re-election strategy. They want to run for re-election using the “orange-man-bad” resistance approach.
However, with the scale of investment withdrawal from Canada if they don’t ratify the USMCA Trudeau won’t have much of an economy left to manage…. And that becomes a problem for Justin/Freeland and their ideological best friend Nancy Pelosi.
After all the 2017 and 2018 shenanigans pulled by Freeland and Trudeau; and specifically after their G7 stunt last year; President Trump is essentially done with them – I doubt President Trump would even take a call from Justin from Canada. And forget about USTR Robert Lighthizer…. he’s a thousand times more angry than Trump.
The U.S. relationship with Canada is fundamentally fractured, destroyed, unrecoverable, so long as Trudeau/Freeland are present and pushing their elitist, globalist, multinational agenda. The relationship is so bad, if a hostile nation was to threaten Canada, it would take some convincing to get President Trump to express any intent to defend.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi doesn’t want to give Trump a win. Trudeau and Freeland don’t want to give Trump a win. However, if Trudeau and Freeland don’t quickly ratify the USMCA they’re screwed come October (elections). As a result, ratification in Canada will put Pelosi in a pressured pickle…. and would likely lead to the U.S. House taking up similar ratification.
Amid all the chaos, there’s an apex predator who thrives in the fray. His world-leading economy is firing on twenty-trillion cylinders…. and he’s lining up tankers of boost.
The U.S. economy is expanding at a rate more than double all other nations; the U.S. unemployment rate is 3.6%, half all other nations; U.S. inflation is barely above one percent, and average U.S. wage rate growth is 3.4 percent and climbing.
Today is a very good day. Despite the professional punditry and their doomsayer predictions of Trump tariffs driving up costs for consumers, exactly the opposite is happening.
Despite large growth in the Main Street USA economy; and despite large wage gains by U.S. blue-collar workers; inflation remains low and mysteriously detached from the Fed monetary policy.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. inflation was much weaker than initially thought in the first quarter amid a sharp slowdown in domestic demand, which could cast doubts on the Federal Reserve’s view that the benign price pressures were largely because of temporary factors.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components increased at a 1.0% rate last quarter, the government said. The so-called core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was previously reported to have risen at a 1.3% pace.
The increase last quarter was the smallest in four years and pushed inflation further below the Fed’s 2% target. (read more)
They just don’t get it. For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy will reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth. Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) once again confirms our earlier predictions, and releases the data showing inflation is essentially nonexistent.
Since the mid-to-late 1980’s the U.S. economy split into two divergent economic engines. One traditional engine powered by Main Street, and a second engine powered by Wall Street. For thirty-plus years the distance between those engines was growing as federal monetary policy provided low interest rate support for investment, but the end destination for the investment was NOT in the U.S. [Hence, globalism]
For more than 30 years monetary policy has been driven by Wall Street influence. FED interest rates made borrowing cheap, but the money -the actual investment itself- flowed out of the United States. The end product from the investment, steered by multinationals, created products overseas. Within this flow of capital there was no benefit to Main Street.
President Trump’s America-First policy has reversed the dynamic. As a result of his focus and demand, the end product(s) from capital investment are now here in the U.S.A.
The MOUSE is money or investment. The CHEESE is end products, manufactured stuff.
Rather than beg the Wall Street investment mouse to change direction in the manufacturing maze, president Trump has simply moved the cheese to Main Street. The mouse’s travel changed accordingly.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. (link)
As companies reevaluate the best place for investment (highest return), and they see that Trump’s policies (corp taxes, tariffs, material and labor costs) focus on greatest benefit being inside the U.S, then companies return to Main Street. This is what has been happening since Trump took office; and it continues through today.
The prices of highly consumable goods (food, fuel, energy) is kept low by Trump policies that increase energy production and return a genuine supply-side dynamic to domestic production prices. [The battle with Big AG]
Meanwhile multinationals, and some foreign governments, fight to keep their footing abroad (original investment) by keeping down the price of durable goods manufactured overseas. This is done by increase productivity, adjusted supply chains and retention incentives afforded by the benefiting nation. This is done to offset Trump tariffs which are designed to influence a shift in the manufacturing process.
The end result of both production dynamics, domestic and abroad, is low inflation.
This price dynamic is happening at the location of output, internally to the operations that are determining the output price, based on their determination of what U.S. market prices will absorb.
Key Point – The pricing is NOT a result of decision-making on new investment; and therefore the pricing dynamic is not able to be impacted or influenced by FED monetary policy.
Only when the majority of manufacturing investment fully returns to the U.S. will FED policy have any significant bearing on manufacturing prices. This is the parity point where Main Street’s economic engine is recoupled to inflation.
There was 30 years of distance in the FED disconnect, and it will take more than a few years for the recoupling of Main Street to FED monetary policy.
This dynamic is the basic thesis behind THE THEORY HERE.
DECEMBER 2016 – […] Additionally, inflation on durable goods will be insignificant – even as international trade agreements are renegotiated. Why? Simply because the originating nations of those products are going to go through the same type of economic detachment described above.
Those global manufacturing economies will first respond to any increases in export costs (tariffs etc.), by driving their own productivity higher as an initial offset, in the same manner American workers went through in the past two decades. The manufacturing enterprise and the financial sector remain focused on the pricing.
♦ Inflation on imported durable goods sold in America, while necessary, will ultimately be minimal during this initial period; and expand more significantly as time progresses and off-shored manufacturing finds less and less ways to be productive. Over time, durable good prices will increase – but it will come much later.
♦ Inflation on domestic consumable goods ‘may‘ indeed rise at a faster pace. However, it can be expected that U.S. wage rates will respond faster, naturally faster, than any monetary policy because inflation on fast-turn consumable goods become re-coupled to the ability of wage rates to afford them.
The fiscal policy impact lag, caused by the distance between federal monetary action and the domestic Main Street economy, will now work in our favor. That is, in favor of the middle-class.
Within the aforementioned distance between “X” and “Y”, a result of three decades traveled by two divergent economic engines, is our new economic dimension….