Category Economic Subjects

Nov 21 2019

Artificial Intelligence v Sophisticated Analytics


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

Re-Posted Nov 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Socrates vs Aladdin

I would like to start by saying thank you for all the knowledge in an altruist way you provide to the world. Reading your blog is part of my daily activities for years now. And what i difference it has made in opening my mind.

I would like if you could comment in which way is different Socrates’ capabilities to Blackrock Aladdin. Since they state exactly what Socrates stands for, unbiased worldwide analysis.

On another topic, read a far fetch theory the other day, that are about 8 to 8.5k people worldwide that control the BIS, making them the lords of all this chaos and nonsense of economic imbalances we live in (life of constant debt). If you find convenient, could you please elaborate on your words of knowledge on the topic.

Many thanks and best regards

PG

ANSWER: Blackrock Aladdin® is only an operating system for investment managers. It does provide information which is the typical standard money management tool. It involves the standard array of sophisticated risk analytics used in portfolio management. It is not Artificial Intelligence that writes an analysis on its own. It is a platform with tools where the manager must still make informed decision-making and use effective risk management.

Here is the screen on the NASDAQ. What you see is a number of tools you can look at. The Global Market Watch pinpointed the 18th as a “Potential Key High,” which was based upon true AI. The difference is the computer is providing its conclusion. The rest of the tools are there for your personal informed decision-making. Then Socrates writes a report on each level of the market as well and provides a summary overview. This, again, is AI.

Providing an algorithm that is a tool like a stochastic is standard in the world. We have the standard risk models you can look at as well. All of that is NOT Artificial Intelligence for you are making the decision based upon a standard tool. The tool is not telling you its conclusion. There is nothing out there that writes a report after analyzing the entire world.

As far as the BIS is concerned, that is just a conspiracy theory. Even the Kenneth Rogoff told Bloomberg: “A joke, which I have been telling since the last meeting in Davos, culminates in the fact that the predictions made in Davos are always wrong… No matter how unlikely, the most likely event is the one that is the opposite of the Davos consensus.” In fact, he may have said it was a joke, but it is true. They have never made a single forecast that was correct at any of these gatherings. They lack the tools of the global economy and ONLY someone who has actually traded in the markets can possibly understand the true capital flows.

Nov 15 2019

Understanding the Repo Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Nov 15, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, thank you for a great conference. The comments out there on the liquidity crisis have been just domestically focused. Thank you for keeping my eyes focused on international events and your analysis about the crisis at Deutsche Bank

GH

REPLY: The raid on Deutsche Bank in Germany back in September over the money laundering probe of Danske Bank, which is the biggest lender in Denmark, contributed to the sudden collapse in confidence. The governments are desperate for money and they are hunting it on a global scale. Deutsche Bank served as a correspondent bank to Danske’s Estonia branch. That is where the latest money laundering is alleged to have occurred. The banker there in the Estonia branch of Danske, Aivar Rehe, was found dead by police there in Estonia. He had been previously questioned by prosecutors and was considered to be THE key witness in the money laundering probe. As always, just like Jeffrey Epstein, his death was declared to be a suicide. This is standard whenever they need to cover something up. Boris Berezovsky suddenly commits suicide being very remorseful for making billions I suppose. Anyone who could expose things others do not want always seems to commit suicide.

The crisis in liquidity is that American bankers will NOT lend to Europe. Because of the European Banking Crisis, banks just do not trust banks. Nobody knows who will be standing after a failure at Deutsche Bank. The Fed has had to step in to be the neutral lender NOT because of a crisis in the USA, but because of the collapse in confidence in Europe’s banking system as a whole. Stay alert – this is just getting started.

Categories: Banking C
Nov 13 2019

Gold & the Future


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Nov 13, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; First I want to thank you for your conference. It was my first time and I was impressed when your daughter asked how many people attended prior sessions. The number of people standing beyond 10 years was impressive. I spoke with one who had been at your 1987 WEC. He said you not only called the crash and the day of the low, but you said gold would rally only $25 and resume its decline. Now we have people still preaching how gold will rally because of the credit crisis they seem to lack the understanding of how it is unfolding. I just finished reading the Hoarding Dollars report. It is really outstanding.

Do you see these people preaching the end of the world so buy gold as just a broken record? I looked at the 1987 move. You were correct. Gold rallied begrudgingly and then resumed its decline. What will it take to make gold sustainable?

WK

ANSWER: The 1987 Crash was a FOREX crisis caused by the G5 trying to manipulate the dollar down. The rally in gold from 1985 to 1987 was simply because of the decline in the dollar. When the G5 tried to stop the decline in the dollar with the Louvre Accord in February 1987, the dollar continued to decline and that was the tipping point. The talk was that the central banks were impotent and could no longer control the economy. We are approaching that same moment in time, but it may flip back the other way. The collapse in confidence is concentrated in central banks OUTSIDE the United States. Eventually, that will migrate to the US and then we will see gold rally when people wake up and see that governments are lost.

Categories: Gold
Nov 11 2019

FEDERAL RESERVE THANKSGIVING!


GRRRGRAPHICS ON  FACEBOOK INSTAGRAM PARLER   GAB TWITTER POLITICHATTER

The stock market melt-up continues. Oh sure, it may be going down today, but that would indicate another buying opportunity. Buy the dip! That has worked for the past 10 years. Recessions are a thing of the past. Unemployment is low. The economy is doing great! Buy stocks! BUY BUY BUY! The stock market will not go down through 2020. Trump has ordered the Fed to make it so. We should be glad our president has such influence, but it’s more complicated than that.

I support Trump, but he’s wrong about the stock market has an indicator of economic health. The stock market is in a ridiculous bubble. That’s what the Federal Reserve does—it creates bubbles. The valuations of stocks are way out of whack with what the companies earn.

Too many Americans can’t afford to buy such sky-high stocks anyway. Most Americans are in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. For the first time, the 1 percent now has more money than the entire middle class combined. Not by means of capitalism, but by fascism. They’ve rigged the game in their favor. They have hijacked our government to make sure they will get more. Always more. The middle class is in decline. Real wages are not rising, but they’re paying more in terms of taxes and the hidden tax known as inflation. The millennials can’t pay off their college debt, let alone buy a house and start a family. The corrupt, millionaire politicians made sure those with college debt can’t declare bankruptcy. Housing prices are prohibitively expensive. That means rent goes up, too. One third of the millennials are forced to move back in with their parents. Meanwhile, 84 percent of the stock market is owned by the wealthiest top 10 percent of Americans. The 1 percent owns 38 percent of the stock market.

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The ‘too big to fail’ banks have no worries. While most Americans fret about paying bills, the banks get free money from their Federal Reserve, which is there to bail them out to the tune of $150 billion per day if needed. Quantitative easing never ended. The Plunge Protection Team that is the Fed always ensures the market is propped up. It’s a perma-Thanksgiving feast for the central banks. These banker turkeys love to gobble up money. They are stuffed with money. A lot of that money goes into ‘their’ stock market. Martin Armstrong predicted the Dow will hit 40,000 in a few years. Why? Because all that free money has nowhere else to go, so they use it to make the stocks they already own go up even more. The banks aren’t going to give it to us, that’s for sure. We do get stuck with the bill, however. We pay for it via inflation and taxes and the national debt has now exceeded $24 trillion.

The Illuminati won’t spend that money on rebuilding infrastructure such as roads and bridges, but they will use it to buy up utilities and then make sure the electricity gets turned off to make their serfs suffer even more as they usher in their climate change-based ‘globalism.’

Conniving, evil men were allowed to inflict the vile Federal Reserve debt money system upon We The People. Congress unconstitutionally abandoned their mandate to handle our currency. They illegally turned over that power to international bankers. The Illuminati have always been about globalism and control and they’re achieving their goal by controlling our money supply. By this means they buy out everything—the mass media, the politicians, the courts—everything.

It’s time to wake up and END THE FED!

—Ben Garrison

Nov 11 2019

The Solution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Nov 11, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Hi Marty:

Congratulations on a fantastic WEC 2019.

I have reviewed your Solution video. Could the government ease into such a solution in stages? For example, the government could place a moratorium on issuing debt and pay the year’s budget which included a reduction in principle on outstanding bond debt, and meeting current interest expense, by printing actual currency.

Dan

ANSWER: Yes. I believe we would have to do this in three stages. The point of the exercise is that markets trade on ANTICIPATION. Once it is realized that we are actually making a fundamental change, the markets will begin to move to reflect the long-term expectations.

Categories
Nov 10 2019

How Joe Biden Made His Millions


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Joe Biden used to joke about being the poorest member of Congress. Now, he and his wife Jill Biden are millionaires. The 2020 presidential candidate, who has touted himself as a champion of the middle class, released his tax returns. The documents show the Bidens made more than $15 million in the two years after they left the White House.
Nov 7 2019

China Moving to Create a Digital Currency


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency

Re-Posted Nov 7, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

China’s National People’s Congress has passed a new law to create a digital yuan. Back on December 5, 2013, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took its first step in regulating Bitcoin by prohibiting financial institutions from handling Bitcoin transactions. They were using Bitcoin to get money out of China in a modern money laundering scheme. Cryptocurrency exchanges or trading platforms were banned by regulation back in September 2017. They closed 173 platforms by July 2018. As I have warned, governments will NEVER allow Bitcoin to replace a national currency. They have used it for study, but it only takes a pen to kill Bitcoin.

Therefore, cryptocurrencies will not be allowed to compete in China against the government. This will be the same worldwide. Countries will move toward digital currency to enforce laws and taxation.

Categories: Cryptocurrency
Nov 5 2019

Manipulating the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs

Re-Posted Nov 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I just finished “Manipulating the World Economy.” What a wonderful book and actually a gift to those of us who attended the October conference. I hope you will soon publish this book for all the public to read.

JL

REPLY: It is going off to the printers within the next week. We hope to have it ready for Christmas. I really did try to make it the most comprehensive book on the subject matter. I was asked to write it because there was nothing out there to combat the Modern Monetary Theory, and those such a Thomas Piketty who advocate seizing the wealth of anyone who has more than he does.

 

Nov 5 2019

US Economy Soft – But Holding


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Nov 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I find it interesting how the rest of the world is declining and Socrates forecast that the US economy would be only slightly weak going into January 2020. It is interesting how it picks up the major differences. They are blind to the trend. You bring together the world. Thank you for that and there will always be idiots who cannot comprehend the trend and think Warren Buffet is a great investor when he was just a buy and hold no different than Trump. They both made money simply because of the inflationary asset trend since 1985.

Great forecast

KL

REPLY: The US economy was not poised for a major recession that everyone was forecasting because of the China trade dispute. It is softer, yes, but it is really holding up the entire world economy. The third quarter GDP was still up 0.8% whereas the prior quarter was up 1.1%. So yes, it was a slight decline. But we do not show a major economic decline in the USA.

As long as stocks have been in a bull market since 1985, then buy and hold works. But they lose in downtrends. Everyone forgets that. The year 2008 was the worse year Buffett had in 44 years. Most people cannot hold through such declines. This is why institutions have used us for decades. They cannot buy and sell like short-term investors. They need to know when to flip a major portfolio. Truly smart value investors hedge. That eliminates the risk of having to declare bankruptcy during the declines.