Will Spain be the First to Default on Pensions?


The Pension Crisis is brewing rapidly and we will begin to see this make headlines much more so around the world. There is hardly a country not in trouble (Norway the exception), where pensions are underfunded as governments have relied upon tax revenue. As the crisis in Spain brews, it will be the pension crisis there which blows the lid off of the entire problem. The Spanish pension system is moving rapidly toward a major crisis threatening its collapse. The Madrid government needs to issue debt to close the huge gaps as, without new debt, the pension crisis would have a meltdown this year. The question becomes when will buyers of debt realize that it is not even backed by economic growth.  This is similar to a person without a job borrowing from the bank just to pay the rent. What governments have done in the management of pensions is criminal for anyone in the private sector.

Spain faces a major social crisis as we cross the threshold of 2018. The situation keeps getting worse by the day. For years, the Spanish government, like so many others, has been using funds from its pension reserves to finance expenses elsewhere in the budget ever since 2012. Billions have been used to offset the widening deficits in the welfare system. Consequently, the pension fund has collapsed from 66 billion euros in 2011 to only about 15 Billion euros in 2016. At this rate, Spain goes into default in 2018. The crisis materializes when those who buy debt suddenly see there is no possible way to repay the debt from future revenues. A default becomes possible when there is NO BID for new debt.

This is how it will begin. The peripheral economies will go bust and then a contagion begins as traders look around and say –OMG! They are all the same!

Is Trump Jr Being Set up By his Own Lawyers?


One of the most interesting events is how the Democrats and Muller have gone after Trump, Jr. for meeting with a Russian lawyer last year. The Russian lawyer who met with Donald Trump Jr. at Trump Tower said the president’s oldest son told her the U.S. government would review a 2012 law punishing Russian human rights abusers if Donald Trump won the presidency, according to a report. So what is this really about? It’s called the Maginsky Act.

I have written before that the Maginsky Act was a political payback for Bill Browder.  The claim of Browder that his Russian tax attorney Sergei Magnitsky was imprisoned and died before trial was trying to fight corruption in Russia is far from the truth with his  Hermitage Capital. This is the very operation that Safra and crew wanted me to invest $10 billion in and it was all about making money – not fighting political corruption.

The documentary film about me and this incident, the Forecaster, was banned in the United States. NetFlix at first agreed to air the film and then management killed the deal. The distributor in the USA and Switzerland paid for the rights and then refused to show the film in theaters. That entire thing was about blackmailing Yeltsin to take over Russia. Talk about manipulating elections – nobody will talk the truth about this matter and you would think that Trump Jr.’s lawyers would be on the phone with me. No way! That leaves a HUGE question in my mind whether Trump, Jr.’s lawyers are really defending him or are they just pretending?

Putin seized all the assets of Hermitage Capital and Browder fought in Congress to get the Magnitsky Act passed to try to seize assets to get his money back. I always found it very strange that here the object was to influence the election of the president of Russia by blackmail, and the Congress passes the Magnitsky Act as if it was human rights because of some attorney who dies in a prison in Russia. Something is seriously missing. The fact that Trump Jr.’s lawyers are not bringing this out, which would really go to the heart of all this Russian nonsense, makes me wonder who is pulling the strings behind the curtain to set-up Trump, Jr

Trump, White Supremacy, and Fake News (Larry Elder Interview)


Larry Elder (Author & Radio Host) joins Dave Rubin to discuss his views on Trump, the cries of white supremacy, and fake news.

Larry Elder (Author & Radio Host) joins Dave Rubin to discuss his background, political evolution, and his views on “actual” racism vs systemic racism, Black Lives Matter, and more.


Larry Elder (Author & Radio Host) joins Dave Rubin to discuss his background, political evolution, and his views on “actual” racism vs systemic racism, Black Lives Matter, and more.

Thomas Sowell Dismantles the Ideology of “Social Justice”


Thomas Sowell is an American economist, turned social theorist, political philosopher, and author. He is currently Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. In this segment he talks about the idological failures of Social Justice or what he calls “cosmic.

Bill Whittle: SJW, SURPRISE!


William Alfred “Bill” Whittle (born April 7, 1959) is an American conservative blogger, political commentator, director, screenwriter, editor, pilot, and author.

Bill Whittle: 5 STEPS to Take the Country Back from the Left


William Alfred “Bill” Whittle (born April 7, 1959) is an American conservative blogger, political commentator, director, screenwriter, editor, pilot, and author.

Bill Whittle: How the Critical Theory Ruined a Generation


William Alfred “Bill” Whittle (born April 7, 1959) is an American conservative blogger, political commentator, director, screenwriter, editor, pilot, and author.

Draghi Knew About Hiding Losses by Italian Banks


The Bank of Italy, when it was headed at the time by Mario Draghi, knew Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA hid the loss of almost half a billion dollars using derivatives two years before prosecutors were alerted to the complex transactions, according to documents revealed in a Milan court.

Mario Draghi, now president of the European Central Bank, was fully aware of how derivatives were being used to hide losses. Goldman Sachs did that for Greece, which blew up in 2010. It is now showing that Draghi was aware of the problems stemming from a 2008 trade entered into with Deutsche Bank AG which was the mirror image of an earlier deal Monte Paschi had with the same bank. The Italian bank was losing about €370 million euros on the earlier transaction, internally they called “Santorini” named after the island that blew up in a volcano. The new trade posted a gain of roughly the same amount and allowed losses to be spread out over a longer period. We use to call these tax straddles.

The report was dated September 17th, 2010, and marked “private” demonstrating that the Bank of Italy was aware that by choosing not to book the trade at fair value Monte Paschi avoided showing a loss at the time. If the bank had used a mark-to-market valuation in the fourth quarter of 2008, it would have been included in its year-end report as the credit crisis was cresting.

This is the real picture behind the curtain. Draghi has known all about using derivatives to mask-over losses and pretend they are not there. The entire Greece Crisis was caused by Goldman Sachs constructing derivatives to pretend Greece made the criteria for the Eurozone.

Greece joined the Euro in 2001 under Costas Simitis. At the time, Greece owed about €3.4 billion euros it had borrowed. Goldman engineered a currency swap whereby the Greek debt, issued in dollars and yen, was exchanged for euros that were priced at a “historical” or entirely fictitious currency rate. Of course, swapping dollar and yen debt at nearly the low of 2000 when the euro was only 82 cents to the dollar became a nightmare. Greece’s debt doubled in real terms as the euro then rose to $1.60 by 2008. Obviously, Goldman offered no advice but structured a deal that only benefited itself by directing Greece to sell the dollar at the low. Goldman also set up an off-market interest-rate swap to repay the loan off the books, which was a currency position and therefore not technically a “loan” outside any reporting requirement as debt. The trade kept this part of the Greek debt off the books and cleverly hidden from scrutiny. This falsely created the idea that the Greek debt was moving in the right direction to meet the Maastricht rules eventually. Goldman overpriced the deal to such an extent that 12% of their $6.35 billion in trading and investment revenue for 2001 came from restructuring Greece. In total, they pocketed a premium fee of $300 million. Goldman also warned, as they typically do, Goldman would cancel the offer that if Greece shopped the deal around for a better price. Goldman further demanded that Greece pledge landing fees from Greek airports and revenue from the national lottery as part of the transaction to secure their own profits strip-mining Greece.

Within just three months of signing the deal, the bond markets took a major swing following the September 11 attack in New York during 2001. Furthermore, the dollar declined and the Euro soared. Greek officials began to realize that the deal was not going well in the least. The Greek national debt nearly doubled in size, and in real terms (currency adjusted), the debt would double by 2008 just in Euro terms nominally. Greece faced another financial crisis in 2005, which few understood. Goldman Sachs “restructured” the deal once again, but this time they were selling the interest rate swap to the National Bank of Greece under the new government that came to power in 2004 under Karamanlis. This increased the debt even further stretching-out the payments beyond 2032. Goldman managed to extract $500 million from the Greeks, according to numerous press stories (Independent Friday 10 July 2015; Greek debt crisis: Goldman Sachs could be sued for helping hide debts when it joined euro).

Goldman didn’t even blink and went to Athens to try to sell another deal. Goldman Sachs’ president Gary Cohn personally traveled there and offered to finance the country’s health care system debt, pushing that debt even further into the future. Goldman did not merely make huge fees, it even allegedly placed a bet on the economy of Greece that it would fail based upon its inside information. Goldman is known as Government Sachs and has been apparently beyond the reach of any law anywhere. Papandreou wisely declined Goldman’s 2009 deal and this is when he blew the lid off of what Goldman had done to his country.

Now Gary Cohen is in the White House orchestrating the resurrection of Glass Steagall to knock all the commercial banks out of the investment bank business leaving Goldman Sachs (Government Sachs) with just one competitor – Morgan Stanley.

Meanwhile, because the ECB will cut its bond purchases by 50% next year, Draghi will be unable to help the Italian government and rules against bailing out the banks may just explode in everyone’s face next year.

The ECM Turning Point Here in November


QUESTION: Marty,

First off, I would like to say it was truly a pleasure meeting you at the cocktail party this past weekend. Congratulations on presenting an incredible conference. It was my first time attending and I will definitely be there again next year. Furthermore, let me tell you that I was very impressed with your staff. They were very helpful before and during the conference. Lastly, I was extremely impressed with the number of young attendees that were at the conference. I consider myself as still being young, but the number of early 20 year olds that were at the conference was extremely impressive.

Now on to my questions. There seemed to be some confusion from a number of people that I spoke to as to the two November dates (the one coming up this month and the one next year). Can you please clarify the significance between the two dates and what you are expecting from them. Also, you may have mentioned this in the past, so I apologize for asking can you to repeat yourself, but can you tell me where the 23700 number came from on the Dow? Is it a number generated by Socrates or is it just a technical analysis number? Lastly, I would like to know what your thoughts are about the diverse crowd that attended your conference?

Once again, thank you for all that you have done for us little people.

P.S. I can’t wait for the release of the Socrates professional version.

John

ANSWER: The Economic Confidence Model has a turning point here this November 24/25. That can produce the temporary high. The next one November 21, 2018, is the one that tends to produce the major events that are often political in nature. For example, on the 1998 wave, we saw the Long Term Capital Management collapse as a result of the Russian collapse. Then the Pi Turning point produced the 911 attack on the World Trade Center to the day.

The next wave that peaked in 2007, produced April 16, 2010 and that was when Greece petitioned the IMF for a loan when it could not pay its debt.

That same turning point from 1929 was November 20th, 1932. It was the 1932 German presidential elections were held on March 13th, 1932 (first round) and April 10th, 1932 (second round run-off) where the incumbent President, Paul von Hindenburg, won a second term. His opponent was Adolf Hitler of the Nazi Party (NSDAP). However, despite the fact that Hindenburg deeply distrusted Hitler and he ran to stop Hitler from winning, following his re-election, two successive federal elections left the Nazis as the largest party in the Reichstag. Hindenburg was forced to appoint Hitler as Chancellor of Germany in January 1933. It was December 1932 when the Fourth Encirclement Campaign was launched against Mao. The communist victory resulted in annihilating over 30,000 nationalist troops, including capturing more than ten thousand. Furthermore, the communist’s victory also armed them for they were able to capture tens thousands of guns from the nationalists.

Roosevelt ran in the primary elections in  1932 and became the candidate at the Democratic Convention  June 27 – July 2, 1932. The elections were November 1932. Then at the bottom of that wave in 1934.05, this is when Roosevelt confiscated gold.

On this wave, the Pi Turning point seemed to mark the political changes around the world from Hitler and Mao to FDR in the United States.