The Federal Reserve is Raising Rates – Get Used to It


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Oct 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The title speaks for itself. The Fed is going to continue raising rates until inflation shows notable improvement. Some still question whether the Fed will ease on its hawkish policies, but there is absolutely every indication to believe they will continue at full speed. Core PCE rose 4.9% in August from the year prior and increased 0.6% for the month.

Before the aforementioned data was released, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said he was “cautiously optimistic” that the US could avoid a recession. “There are lags in monetary policy and we have moved expeditiously. We have done three 75 basis point increases in a row and there is a talk of more to get to that 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of the year, you’re not leaving much time to sort of look at each monthly release,” Evans, who is set to retire next year, said.

The truth of the matter is that the White House simply changed the definition of a recession. The majority is hurting financially right now, and I don’t think we need the talking heads to tell us that we are already in a recession. The typical analysis looks only at domestic conditions, but internationally, most central banks are in the process of raising rates and backtracking on failed QE policies.

Every month there are reports of the market being “spooked” by rate hikes. People come on TV and act surprised that the Fed has the audacity to raise rates yet again. Why? Powell stated in every possible way that the FOMC will raise rates for “some time.” In Powell language, that means rates will continue to rise for a while. The computer foresees havoc going into 2023. Things must get worse before they become better. Unemployment must rise, rates must go higher, and you must adjust your strategy accordingly.

The IRS and Another Multi-Billion-Dollar Mistake


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Oct 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) continually makes multi-billion-dollar mistakes. The agency “accidentally” sent $1.1 billion in advanced child tax credits to the wrong families. If a private citizen were to make a mistake on their personal taxes, they’d feel the repercussions – especially with Biden’s 87,000 newly appointed and armed agents.

Now 1.5 million families who received the money “accidentally” will be on the hook to pay it back. As if that were not bad enough, the IRS failed to deliver $3.7 billion in tax credits to 4.1 million households! The tax credit was intended as part of the reckless American Rescue Plan to pay families earning under $150,000 annually and single parents earning under $112,500. This was the largest child tax credit in America’s history – basically, people received “free” money at the expense of the taxpayers simply for having children.

This is the same agency that sent countless stimulus checks to people who did not qualify. Even multi-billionaire George Soros received a stimulus check. They even sent out checks totaling over $267 billion to deceased individuals. The IRS also “accidentally” leaked 120,000 personal online files earlier in the month. The agency continually makes major mistakes. Knowing that there will be 87,000 additional agents, armed, working for this failed agency does not put one at ease.

NATO Preparing for World War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I know for a fact that the US military is deploying some reservists to Romania to train European soldiers. The reservists have been told that the war will escalate, and as a soldier told me, “things are getting really bad over there.” They will be training the Europeans to fight against Russians for at least six months. NATO is constructing a battlefield in Romania for this extensive training. The Cincu military training facility already exists but is undergoing a massive expansion.

This is precisely what Russia feared long before entering Ukraine. I reported that Russia knows it is fighting the West and not simply Ukraine. NATO has increased its presence around Eastern Europe this year and has no plans to de-escalate the situation. There are over 40,000 troops on the ground across Eastern Europe, and more are set to arrive. In fact, NATO will establish four additional “multinational battle groups” in Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria.

Colonel Vincent Minguet, the commander of the NATO Combat Group in Romania, said the plan is for “the creation of a permanent, stronger battalion, with more heavy weapons, to prevent any aggression or any destabilization in Romania.” Alarmingly, Minguet believes that training will last for four or five years. They are planning for a long-term ongoing battle fought among numerous nations, aka a world war.