COMMENT: Marty, I attended your coming out WEC in Philadelphia in 2011. Just about everyone I spoke with said the same thing. They all showed up to make sure it was really you and not some government stooge pretending to be you.
I must say, when you put up the war cycle, I thought it was interesting and everyone respected your work so we listened. At the time it was perhaps a curiosity and would be something we would watch on TV instead of the Oscars. Here we are. In the middle of this mess. I can now see how they used that tactic to demonize Trump to get Biden elected if he was really elected.
Now every person who voted for Biden has voted for World War III. They bought the hatred of Trump to remove him when he was like JFK and would never have agreed to war as you said when you went to dinner at Mara Largo. The recent tapes show that Nixon confronted the CIA for killing JFK. The very people who did the Watergate break-in were operatives for the CIA to make sure Nixon would be removed.
Our leaders really want war. I would never have thought your war model would predict that we would be the aggressor. Our government lies about everything. Why? Do they hate humanity that much?
GP
REPLY: I appreciate what you are saying. The Deep State has always had its agenda and it was always just about them. Never in my wildest dreams looking at these forecasts a decade ago did I ever contemplate that we would be the aggressor. The Neocons just want to annihilate every Russian. That is all they think about. That is why John McCain handed Hillary’s fake dossier to James Comey at the FBI. They were two Neocons and always wanted war with Russia. It was Hillary that conditioned the Democrats to think that Russia was the enemy and they rigged the election for Trump.
You see both Democrats and Republicans cheering war now. There is no stopping the warmongering. All we can do is prepare, and understand how the capital will shift as the arrays will give us the timing. This will enable us to position ourselves to make it to the other side of 2032. Fortunately, Socrates was constructed using the raw data to provide a picture of global capital flows.
That was why I was called in by the Brady Commission back in 1987 for as you can see, the G5 was taking the dollar down for trade by 40% and then foreign investors sell US assets for they will lose on the FX exchange. Those morons every understood capital flows or currency.
When again they were trying to talk the dollar down in 1997 for trade purposes, I warned them they would unleash another crash making the same mistake as before. They at least listened and backed off.
QUESTION: Good afternoon – Will try to make this one quick. Know you are busy. Have you ever asked Socrates how to “defeat” its predictions? Or to reduce volatility/amplitude of projected events?
(Really, you should be recognized alongside Adam Smith, Ricardo, et al. for your discoveries and contributions.)
JN
ANSWER: Because the entire world is connected, it does not appear that it is possible to prevent an event from unfolding. I have come to the conclusion that the best we can ever hope to accomplish is to reduce the magnitude of volatility.
The CFTC had even subpoenaed me demanding a list of all my clients worldwide. I defeated them in court. Their argument was that I had been manipulating the world economy and by turning over my client list, they would prove the magnitude of my influence. These people do not believe in forecasting for they only believe in manipulating society. Even Larry Summers claimed that if you create a model that actually worked, then that would dictate the future.
What these people miss is the fact that we are all connected globally. This is why government IS THE PROBLEM for they think that they can manipulate the future. But since we are all connected globally, it is impossible for one nation to alter the course of the global trend.
The world economy cannot be manipulated. It is far too complex to alter the course of the entire globe. It has been governments that have always created war. Look at every time the bankers thought that they had the guaranteed perfect trade, they have blown up and run to the government for bailouts.
Their allegation against me has never changed. If I say gold will double and it does, it is ONLY because I have too many people as followers rather than the fact that the computer has identified the trend.
So Socrates has confirmed on many occasions – the world economy must travel through these cycles. It is just how society functions.
COMMENT: Marty, it has become obvious that the media promotes everyone but you. I have attended your WEC events and have met central bankers and people from all the major investment banks both in Hong Kong and at your Berlin Conference. The media avoids you like the plague. But everyone of any substance attends your events. Obviously, the media avoids you to suppress the truth when those in power listen to you. Very interesting.
Can’t wait for Dubai
FW
ANSWER: What I do know is that the major media needs its talking heads. It is irrelevant if what they say is right or wrong. It is only the content they need. They do not want someone like me telling the world what you preach about interest rates is not just wrong, it hurts a lot of people.
I was doing a TV spot I think in 1983. It was FNN that became CNBC. I was doing an interview with Walter Bressert. I gave our forecast that the British pound would fall to par by 1985. The pound was near the $2 level at the time so it was a 50% drop. The host was shocked. He turned to Walt and asked – “What do you think about that forecast?” Walt and I were good friends. He replied, “I would not bet against his computer.”
That was the last time I was on FNN. They want the standard BS. They do not want real analysis, especially long-term which our computer has been the best at compared to anyone. So, I’m not sure it is some conspiracy plot. I think it’s just self-interest. Major media will occasionally cover our forecasts, but generally only after the events.
Barrons had reported our forecast from 2010 that the stock market would make new highs, only when they thought it was a joke. When it happened, they never reported that we were the only ones with that forecast.
Major media is not interested in actual forecasting. They only fill content. They just need the talking heads. They do not care if they are ever right. They are selling content – not real analysis. Even the BBC wrote about the economic forecast at DAVOS on how they are always just wrong. They wrote: “There is just one problem: economists have a poor track record for getting it right.” Why? Simply. When people forecast they are expressing an opinion. They are influenced by the current trend and as such, they can never see in advance the change in that trend.
Our computer is usually correct on the long-term trends. It has never missed a shift in the business cycle that I can recall. The media is just not interested in something like that. They want the controversy and personal opinions for they themselves form personal opinions just as they have bought into Climate Change and now they are promoting World War III.
QUESTION: Do you think that Socrates will ever achieve infallibility?
KJ
ANSWER: I have only shown our Global Market Watch model at conferences. It is a pattern recognition model that is learning every day. I have pointed out that nothing is infallible but if anything can achieve that, it will be this model. Right now, it’s not too bad, but it is still in its infancy. What has shocked me more than anything is that it has identified over 80,000 patterns. This is incredible to me. However, it explains why it is impossible for a person to actually forecast correctly. There are so many subtle variances that something may not be what we think is unfolding.
Eventually, it is theoretically possible that we reach some limitations of the pattern variances. If that can be achieved, then and only then would you be able to forecast infallibly.
Yet there is something else of tremendous importance. Socrates has been virtually infallible on the long-term trends and events. What I have come to understand is that there are so many possible variations in the day-to-day trends, but it does not alter the long-term. It projected a financial panic in 2008 10 years in advance. How do so many events unfold to the very day of the Economic Confidence Model? All I can say is that these events, which have nothing to do with my personal opinion, confirm that there is a hidden order of complexity that the make human eye cannot possibly see. There are just way too many events that unfold precisely on the very day of a target to be just coincidence. There is a far greater order that exists and people will disparage these forecasts because they think they only work because we have a huge client base.
QUESTION: So if I read you right, you never anticipated that your computer would also forecast war and geopolitical events. ChatGPT seems to be able to find things and answer questions. But it cannot forecast the future by itself. So what did you do that is even more impressive than ChatGPT?
DW
ANSWER: Being a programmer since my teens, was the key. Being a trader, I had experience in both fields, which enabled me to TEACH my system how to analyze. So Socrates is not going out to the web and collecting what everyone has to say. It is analyzing the data all on its own.
Because I was also a history buff, I saw how civilization rose and fell. There was obviously a cycle to absolutely everything. Since even taking energy, we use to just burn wood, then oils, then whale oil, and then oil. There is a cycle to innovation. Not personally knowing if that will change to something else, I had to construct my system with my experience and then allow it to discover entirely on its own.
I have explained at conferences that we had a client, the Universal Bank of Lebanon, who found a ledger recording the daily prices of their currency back decades. They asked if we could create a model. The data was input and the system forecasted that their country would go into chaos in 8 days. I thought something was wrong with the data. They calmly asked – What currency would be best? They saw themselves the crisis coming and in 8 days the civil war began. The same took place with a Sausi client who was a big shipper. He wanted to know what gold was going to do for Iran was going to start attacking shipping in the Gulf the next day. I asked: Are you telling me a war will start tomorrow? Oh yes, he replied. So by 1998, it was clear that the computer was capable of projecting wars. That is when I stood up in our London WEC in June 1998 and warned that Russia was about to collapse in 30 days. That became the Long-Term Capital Management collapse with the Russian bond market.
So ChatGPT is cool and it will dazzle everyone. I wrote such a program during the early ’80s to teach my computer how to use natural language to communicate. I used my children as the input. The program I wrote was designed to have a conversation. It would retain a database of who you were so if it asked if you had a dog and you said yes, it would ask you its name and remember that. So the next time you came back it would ask you how is your dog. It had so impressed my daughter should bring all her friends over. I was working with Dragon Systems back then when it was hardware. So the computer would talk verbally to them and they thought it was alive.
We will release a portal where you can ask Socrates questions and it will respond. But this is focused on the economy, not the name of Lady Gaga’s dog. Socrates is totally different from ChatGPT.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your reputation precedes you. They call you the legend because you have been the only analyst who forecasts events years in advance. Throughout the rise and fall the stock market, you called for only 2 year correction from 2000 and 2008 and the market would remain in a bullish trend. I read that Barrows piece on you where it seemed they laughed at your forecast I think in 2010 when you said the market would rally and make new highs. You did the same in 1987. My question is, do you have a particular indicator that allows you to see the long-term like that in the stock market?
PE
ANSWER: This is why I stress that to be a successful trader, you have to conquer your emotions. I was always institutional. Our reports were too expensive for the retail world for they use to go out over telex, which would cost $75 alone per transmission back then. That is why we opened offices around the world to reduce delivery costs. We would send one transmission to that office and they would redistribute it to the clients in that region. We are gathering all our old forecasts that were in storage and will try to assemble them on annual basis for reference.
When FAX became common, we moved to that delivery system and that brought the costs down dramatically. Today, it is email and that is all free. So that is why we became the largest institutional adviser. However, because our clients were institutional, we had to specialize in reliable long-term forecasting. Day traders were not our focus.
We developed our Extreme Long-term trend indicator. This has successfully calculated that these corrections where everyone calls will be the next Depression were only short-term corrections. The calculations are extensive, but this indicator has been used by our Institutional Clients to provide underlying confidence in what is REALLY unfolding in the markets on a broader basis.
These are the charts I was showing at our institutional sessions around the world going into 1985. This indicator was starting to take off on the Quarterly level in 1982. It was fully outright bullish in 1984 on the Yearly Level one year before the ECM turned in 1985. This is why I ended up advising a few of the takeover players back then who they ended up making the movie Wall Street about with Michael Douglas and his famous speech on greed. What the movie did not explain was that the book value declined so much that we could buy companies, sell their assets, and double or even triple our money. I was warned that we were entering a takeover boom.
We took out the back cover of the Economist in July 1985 to forecast that the deflation was ending and a new Private Wave was beginning that would eventually peak in 2032.
The ECM even picked the high in the interest rates at the Fed. Our long-term forecasts have been amazing. They even impressed me. As I said at the last WEC, nobody has tried to defeat these models more than me. True, I do not like their project into 2032. But that is my personal opinion which is not something clients rely on. We all know that the forecasts can only come from Socrates. These indicators have been reliable and you cannot forecast the future from a personal gut feeling.
Your point about foreign money buying US assets and then adding back money to domestic circulation is quite profound. The inflows from Asia, the Middle East, and Europe are enormous. These monies had to come from somewhere. They were a result of globalization, accumulating dollar assets offshore, or having to convert their currencies into US dollar assets. This was never taught in any of my economics, trade, or finance classes back in the 1970’s. Then, the US economy was still a manufacturing-based one and the concept of money taught then was still the Fed and how it conducted OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS. Today, the Fed competes with so many forces it can’t possibly do the job it was designed to do, which was to make the money supply elastic across the US…forget about international money flows, which today are so large, their vast team of financial experts can’t possibly measure much less track them.
The money supply and what is taught in schools are the problem. They have these terms for it: M1, M2, and M3…when in fact in a debt-based economy, money is debt, not paper. What gives it utility is the ability to facilitate exchange, But at its core, the key is confidence in the country that issues it and the citizens who produce the wealth that backs it. The politicians in the US have worked to destroy the currency by consistently abusing it, by spending money without limit, and by convincing people, there is no cost in doing so as long as the US fights every war and defends open markets.
I agree with you that the US dollar will be the last man standing. Because every other country’s currency is simply inferior and the countries that issue it don’t produce enough wealth to consistently make it competitive in world markets.
MS
REPLY: I know. People want to argue with me based on what they read in school or what the press reports. I have been taught by my clients. Being called in to solve problems around the world, I have been fortunate to see how capital really moves. I have met with many central banks, and the IMF, testify before Congress on these subjects, and even attended an OPEC meeting and was called into China for the Asian Currency Crisis. I have been called in by heads of state and summoned by Presidential Commission investigating Crashes. I was even asked if I would teach at one of the most prestigious universities in the world and when I asked why I was told that they “know what they teach doesn’t work.”
Our major clients know this. It takes perhaps someone with experience like you to grasp the reality of the world economy and how it truly functions. We are plagued by Marxist ideas for every economist then thinks that their job is to manipulate society to create the perfect world. Here is Larry Summers saying you cannot predict the economy and if you could, then everyone would follow it and make it so. This is the problem with academics. It is all theory and no real-world experience. This is why they have accused me of manipulating the world because if the forecast is correct, then it’s because I influenced it with our clients. That is why the bankers told the CFTC I had to be silenced. They wanted to manipulate the world, and when they lost, it was always my fault.
QUESTION: I find it interesting that the Roman coin the academics said was fake has now been shown that it had been in circulation. Is this what you talk about how academics are always trying to reject anything that upset their established view of science or history?
SC
ANSWER: Absolutely. It does not matter the field. It is always the same. The Book Historia Augusta they swore was a fake and attributed it even to a monk a few years before. Then there was Homer. They declare that was all fiction until Schleman set sail and discovered Troy, Mycena, Thebes and all the cities they said were fiction. Why this is the standard I cannot explain. They rejected Keynes until the politicians turned to the idea. They reject the existence of a Business Cycle to this very day. You have to beat them over the head with something to prove your point.
Sponsianus was aA second usurper from the Danube region, which today they claim is Ukraine. Sponsianus appears to have come to power briefly in Dacia defending the area from an invasion of Germanic tribes of the Alamanni in 244AD during the early reign of Philip I (244-249AD) based upon coin finds bearing the name Sponsianus who was otherwise unknown to history. Like Historia Augusta, the academics immediately called the coin a fake. Anything that seems to upset the academic narrative they immediately reject regardless of the field.
In 1713, two gold aurei bearing the name of Sponsianus were unearthed in Transylvania, Romania together with coins of Gordian III and Philip I known as the Arab. This was followed by the suggestion that Sponsianus was a usurper during the reign of Philip I after he murdered Gordian III. Instantly, most academics declared them as forgeries. Simply because they found no written record mentioning this usurper, they conclude the coin must be fake.
However, this was the precise period when the Goths began to invade. We know that the Carpi began to invade Dacia no later than 246AD and within one year they were joined by the Goths to invade Moesia, which included the find site which was in Transylvania, Romania. We know of one other usurper at this time in the same region Pacatian (248AD), but in the end, he was murdered by his own troops. There was yet one other usurper – Silbannacus who is known only from a single coin that now resides in the British Museum. Silbannacus most likely led a very short-lived rebellion during this same period on the Rhine perhaps about the same time period as Pacatian in the Moesia (Romania).
Silbannacus appears to have defended the region against the Alamanni during the first half of 244 AD was coins declare a victory as well as a usurpation of power with the support of the Senate. It is possible that Sponsianus may have been Severus Hostilianus of the Byzantine sources which may have confused him with Hostiliaisn (251AD), the young son of Trajan Decius (249-251AD).
Consequently, Sponsianus may be the same person noted by his Zonaras who refers to Severos Stilianos. It may have been the usurpation of Marcus Silbannacus and his support by the Senate that forced Philip to make concessions to the Persians. No emperor Sponsianus is mentioned in the Historia Augusta.
What we do know is that Philip I had murdered Gordian IIIin his attempt to seize the throne. However, he was not equipped to manage the entire empire. As the invasions began from the Northern Germanic tribes, this is clearly why we see these usurpations, not from a quest to seize the throne as much as the political turmoil facing these invasions.
Trajan Decius (249-251AD) was hailed emperor by the troops on the Danube and and he marched against Philip I and defeated him and his son at Verona. However, Trajan Decius was then the first emperor to be killed in battle against the Goths. It was because of these invasions that Trajan Decius took this as the Christians refusing to honor the gods of Rome angered the gods and as such he ordered the first widespread persecution of the Christians in 250AD because of these invasions.
History of the Region
The Alamanni several Germanic tribes including the Ubii, the Sicambri, the Teneteri, the Usipetes, the Catti, and the Cherusces. They were the inhabitants of the upper and lower Rhine, and those beyond that great river, such as the Westphaliaus, the Hessians, and the Saxons, as far as the Elbe and the Weser. They did not imitate the Roman coinage but issued their own Celtic gold staters early on.
It was Drusus, during the time of Augustus (27BC-14AD) who constructed forts and established garrisons throughout this region, in order to hold the Germanic tribes in check; at the same time that he opened a road for his troops through the Hyrcanian forest. The victories of Drusus (brother of Tiberius (14-37AD) over the Alamanni were well known. However, those exploits were not followed by the expansion of the empire and the subjugation of the Germanic tribes of that region. Thus, that area was never reduced to the form of a province.
Following this period, the Alamanni inhabiting that part of Germany, which is situated between the Danube, and the Upper Rhine, were finally subdued at first by Caracalla (198-217AD), and later by Aurelian (270-275AD) Later on, the father of Constantine I the Great (307-337AD), Constantius Chlorus (393-305), while still a caesar under the Tetrarchy, overthrew them with a great slaughter. They continued, nevertheless, from time to time, to wage war against subsequent emperors, from Constantine the Great to Gratian (367-383AD). They were finally brought to subjection 496 AD when they met with a major defeat by the Franks under King Clodovicus.
The primary reason for the Academic rejection of these coins stemmed from that reverse of the coin depicts an image borrowed from coins minted by C. Augurinus dating back to 187 BC. The inclusion of the Republican era reverse has led to suggest that Sponsianus was the leader of his senatorial resistance against Philip I. In opposition to this, some academics have suggested that it is unlikely that his senatorial recognition would have used along with a Republican reverse from the coins celebrating the family of the Minucii by C.Augurinus.
because there existed emperors appointed by the Senate of Pupienus (238AD) and Balbinus (238AD) Therefore, it has been argued that if Sponsianus was supported by the Senate he would have used a more current theme for his coinage. While the series is interesting, they certainly are not conclusive. It cannot be ruled out that Sponsianus perhaps claimed his right to the throne arguing he had descended from that ancient senatorial family. After all, Constantine the Great did that with Claudius II (268-270AD) in an attempt to so some legitimacy.
It is most likely that there were invasions in that area on the Danube frontier whereas he may have been held Emperor to defend the local region from the invaders. We have seen this before even for example Postumus (260-268AD) who claim the throne of the Gallic Empire to protect the people from invaders from the North. He issues coinage showing he was there to protect them from the barbarians which Rome could not. This region of the Danube was under attack at the time around 244 AD by the Alamanni the Germanic tribes. There have been additional ports of coins discovered in Romania that also date to this period of 244 AD suggesting that there was political instability and war in the region during that time.
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