Tag Archives: BREXIT

Jun 3 2018

Secretary Pompeo Recognizes 29th Anniversary of Tiananmen Square Massacre…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 3, 2018 by

Oh boy… subtle like a brick through a window.  Lest there be any debate remaining about the U.S. position toward China in the ongoing Dragon/Panda diplomatic dance, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just delivered a message.

Against the jousting backdrop of Chinese influence over North Korea; and remembering that U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is –right now– in Beijing discussing the future of U.S. and Chinese trade relations; and understanding that even mentioning the 1989 Tiananmen uprising/massacre is forbidden in China….. well:

On the 29th anniversary of the violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations in and around Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, we remember the tragic loss of innocent lives.

As Liu Xiaobo wrote in his 2010 Nobel Peace Prize speech, delivered in absentia, “the ghosts of June 4th have not yet been laid to rest.”

We join others in the international community in urging the Chinese government to make a full public accounting of those killed, detained or missing; to release those who have been jailed for striving to keep the memory of Tiananmen Square alive; and to end the continued harassment of demonstration participants and their families.

The United States views the protection of human rights as a fundamental duty of all countries, and we urge the Chinese government to respect the universal rights and fundamental freedoms of all citizens.  (link)

.

.

.

.

Long time readers may note the importance of this anniversary; while technically the anniversary date is tomorrow, June 4th, I cannot help but see the State Department announcement today, while Secretary Ross is in Beijing, as a message directly targeted to the heart of Beijing.

Thank you Secretary Pompeo, and President Donald Trump

Never forget…

Never…

Jun 3 2018

Capital Flows Not Central Banks Are Holding Up US Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow

Re-Posted Jun 3, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

 

 

QUESTION: Dear Martin,

Re: Non-Farm Payrolls Blowout All Analysts Show USA is Still Holding Up the World

I am been following you for a number of years and believe you to be one of the best-informed analysts in the world.
However, your latest email concerning the gobbledygook reported by the BLS for May’s unemployment figures really has me concerned.
Surely you don’t believe these feel-good statistics which are nothing more than manipulation of the “officially employed” versus “those not in the workforce.”
I believe you are sincere in your analysis but this information is highly suspect.
Would very much like to hear your comments on the subject.

Respectfully,

JLS

P.S. By the way I think you would agree that it is the coordination by the Central Banks which is holding up the World not the USA !

 

ANSWER: There is job creation taking place, however, the index has been manipulated as has just about everything else. The economic growth is half that of a decade ago and from that perspective, we are in a declining mode overall into 2020. That said, the US economy is holding up the world right now, not the central banks. The ECB is keeping not the European economy up, but it has been keeping the governments on life-support.

The Fed has been fighting to even reach its 2% goal for inflation. The problem with deflation is that people will NOT spend wildly when their homes are still below what they paid or at break-even throughout most of the country. The money centers have risen for the high-end because of the foreign money pouring in. The IRS demanded that the real owner of real estate be revealed by the Title Company at closing but this has been limited to New York City and Miami.

The USA is holding up the world BECAUSE the capital flight has been to the USA both from China and from Europe. The central banks are in serious trouble outside the USA. The ECB can actually go bankrupt. Don’t forget, the EU does not issue its own debt. It depends on revenue from the member states. They have already demanded more money from everyone to make up the shortfall from BREXIT.

With respect to the unemployment numbers, of course, they have been manipulated so that if you give up looking, you are not unemployed. Nevertheless, the market responds to that number REGARDLESS of the change in the formula. I can say the top multinational corporate clients we have are all bringing the money home under Trump. Trump’s tax reform is putting pressure on states who have abused their citizens the most like California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Illinois in particular. There is a net migration out of these states all because of taxes.

So it is all relative. Jobs are being created because of the capital flow and lower taxes. This is putting pressure on the rest of the world as well

Jun 2 2018

GDPR resulting in Destroying German Internet


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Jun 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

After the first week, the new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in Europe has done far more damage that Brussels ever anticipated. This regulation, which was intended to really prevent political marketing against the government, is actually destroying the German Internet. Operators have chosen to simply shut down their websites for fear of lawsuits. Many online services have chosen to delete their users’ accounts. In case of violations of the regulation, companies face fines of four percent of their turnover.

At the same time, law firms are licking their lips and see a whole new fortune to be made while rubbing their hands. Lawyers have sprung into action and have set up consumer protection associations armed with this new regulation which explicitly states that consumers are entitled to take action for damages. Activists have targeted companies on a large scale all looking to make huge profits.

The US Supreme Court Chief Justice Warren E. Burger once said: “We may well be on our way to a society overrun by hordes of lawyers, hungry as locusts, and brigades of judges in numbers never before contemplated.” These words seem to be very much on point in Europe. One day, we can only hope that Brussels will admit a serious mistake as just ask – What have we done? But since they refuse to admit error in anything else from creating a federalized Europe without consolidating debts or the refugee issue that is tearing Europe apart, it looks like GDPR is just another nail in the coffin of the EU.

Jun 2 2018

Thatcher’s Last Stand Against Socialism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Monetary Reform

Re-Posted Jun 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Jun 1 2018

Head of Spain Ousted on Corruption – The Man who Sent in Troops to Catalonia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Jun 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The head of Spain, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who sent in troops against Catalonia has been one of the most corrupt politicians in modern time.  At last, he has been overthrown by Parliament after an unprecedented corruption scandal in Madrid. Now we are introducing political uncertainty in Spain, Italy, and Greece will soon follow. In Spain, a broad party alliance emerged based on the vote of no confidence of the Social Democratic PSOE against Rajoy of the conservative People’s Party (PP). The motion was supported by 180 MPs, requiring at least 176 votes. This is PSOE boss Pedro Sanchez who is the new head of government. He is expected to be commissioned by the king to form a new government quickly. Those who have supported the no-confidence vote included the leftist party Podemos and two separatist parties from Catalonia.

Rajoy simply gave up for his support vanished before the vote. Corruption is fine until it is exposed. Rajoy came to office back in December 2011 and led a conservative minority government since 2016. The PSOE head came out and proclaimed: “Today we are opening a new chapter in the history of democracy in our country.” He is a former economics professor.

The corruption scandal has involved 29 defendants, including former PP leadership cadres, who were sentenced to 351 years in prison for corruption, embezzlement, money laundering and illegal enrichment. Corruption among politicians is just off the charts. Obama’s longtime fundraiser Antoin “Tony” Rezko was convicted on federal fraud and money laundering charges, and anyone else would have been brought up on conspiracy if they were no Obama. On the same day, the Obamas closed on their house, Rezko’s wife, Rita Rezko, bought a vacant lot next door from the same seller, at the full asking price of $625,000 so Obama got a deal on the house. Later, Rezko sold the lot to Obama for $300.000. Obama said he paid fair market value for the property decline. By more than 50%. Of course, the press and the police look the other way when anyone else would call it outright corruption.

Welcome to the real world where corruption is just off the charts everywhere!

Jun 1 2018

Deutsche Bank Formally Classified as a Problem Bank


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Jun 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Deutsche Bank has now been classified as a problem bank by FDIC and has been included in a list of banks to be watched. This is the biggest bank in Europe. It cannot be merged within Germany with Commerce Bank for there is just not enough equity to overcome the derivative losses. The only other candidate is BNP, but that is a French bank. This is where the fairytale of Euroland ends. They wanted to create a single currency, but they were unwilling to actually merge the economies. This is why our sources in Italy argue they are now an occupied country. They are dictated to but and request for help is rejected. This is what the “remain” crowd argue for against BREXIT?

A merger of BNP with Deutsche Bank would mean Germany is subservient to France. That is not “politically” acceptable. The entire “BAIL-IN” scheme was NOT because the government wanted to hold banks “responsible” but because a bailout of banks in one country would be seen as a transfer of money from one country to another. This exposes why the Euro is in serious trouble. There is ONLY the idea of a single currency and then Brussels will dictate what everyone else must do, but Brussels refuses to take responsibility for the debt and banking system of all of Europe.

From the very beginning when the committee in charge of creating the Euro came to our WEC in London, I warned that (1) there would be no single interest rate, and (2) without a debt-consolidation, the Euro would NEVER compete with the dollar and ultimately fail. The success of the USA was primarily (1) a single language, and (2) Alexander Hamilton consolidated all the debts of the member states making it the national debt federally. ONLY federal debt is at reserve status. Whatever California does is on them. Their bankruptcy does not threaten the entire country or the status of the dollar. California is no different from Bangladesh who also can issue debt in dollars. This proves the issue is NOT a single currency. The issue is the STRUCTURE!

In the EU, because the debts were never consolidated, then the failure of one brings down the whole because each member state is RESERVE status. The 50 states and municipalities in the USA can issue whatever debt they want in dollars and their status economically is no different than Bangladesh, Brazil, of Beruit issuing its debt in dollars.

There is the EURO CRISIS as Brussels has tried to be half-pregnant. That is why the Euro is doomed! It is STRUCTURE one for all (sometimes to a point) but one can take down all

May 31 2018

Debt is Only Money that Pays Interest


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted May 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I listened to your interview with Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog. For the first time, I really understand that debt is money that pays interest. That is the real money supply which is leveraged. It is the interest that keeps expanding the debt and forcing taxes higher and higher until it can’t expand anymore. Is this the end game?

I only hope when this house of cards comes tumbling down, you will be there to help.

Please keep up your

PL

 

ANSWER: We will see interest expenditures exceed military next year in the USA. Only then will people perhaps begin to pay attention to what I have been saying. Can you imagine that the debt of all nations is about to explode with the slightest uptick in interest rates? We will be going over this issue at the WEC. Just look at Italy when rates soared from 0.3% to 2.5% in a single day. When I say interest rates can rise DRAMATICALLY, this is no joke. The Quantitative Easing in Europe and Japan have destroyed their bond markets. The central banks buy everything. The Bank of Japan bragged how they bought 97% of the new debt. Hello! That means there is no market!

People always ask me why I do what I do meeting with political governments around the world and I do not charge them a dime! The answer is simple. If I took money from them, then I would be beholding to them. Strangely enough, they call me because they know I will tell the truth. The research we put out is NOT for sale to the highest bidder to be manipulated to support some agenda like they do in everything else right down to Global Warming. Yes, there are governmental agencies that pay for Socrates. That is different from meeting with me personally.

I am called (1) because there is no conflict of interest and (2) our computer is tracking the entire world and its forecast cannot be manipulated. So do you want to call someone who you pay to fashion studies to support whatever political agenda you have today? Or do you really want to know when the shit will hit the fan?

 

 

Paper money used to pay interest during the civil war. Nothing has really changed. Debt is now just money that pays interest. We have returned full circle

May 31 2018

Cryptocurrency Changing the World?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency

Re-Posted May 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

I do not know how else to say this. Cryptocurrencies are an ASSET CLASS and they are something to TRADE. All this stupid nonsense that they will revise the world monetary system with no pain and governments will be brought to the knees without firing a shot, I really do not know who makes up this nonsense. They clearly do not look at history nor do they understand human nature. We WILL crash and I hope the BURN then becomes possible where we get reasonable reform without the totalitarianism that is so common.

Cryptocurrencies are a trading vehicle – that’s it! It will by no means produce sweeping reform without the crash and burn. New ideas are adopted ONLY after a crash and burn. They called Keynes a nutjob and his ideas would be inflationary because the prevailing view was austerity. ONLY after the Great Depression did they turn to Keynes – NOT before.

As for the smartass remark, I am “too old” to understand the new age, I have been a programmer my whole life and what we have developed is still far ahead of the current norm. The last time I heard that remark was when I was an adviser to Temple University. Merrill Lynch was trying to see the way to leverage your returns which ended blowing up Orange County California and resulted in lawsuits of over $2 billion from various sources back in 1994. The scheme was to buy 30-year bonds, short 10-year against them, and capture the difference. Then leverage $1 million into $10 million and the tiny spread would double the interest rate on the original capital. The Temple Board told them I had to approve it. The analysts/salesmen flew in, showed me the scheme, I rejected it and warned them that if interest rates rose, the trade would explode in their face. Their losses would be reversed leveraged. They went back to Chicago, reworked the numbers, flew back and said see it would be a break even. I laughed, told them they assumed they would be able to get out of a trade that went bad without volatility. That was a fool’s game. I explained that this was the trust fund for the university they wanted to speculate with. I would not approve it. They then told the board I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money.

So the last time I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money was when I was 45. Human nature is always the same. When they have to say I’m “too old”, it means they have no legitimate argument to put forth. Such transformations of this magnitude take decades. NOT a single one of the big IT companies are doing ANYTHING with cryptocurrencies. Just trade it and be happy. Why put out this nonsense how it will change the world in a matter of weeks or months why that is absurd. They rejected Keynes. It took the collapse of the world monetary system before that adopted Keynesianism. There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that cryptocurrencies will just change the world without a CRASH & BURN.

May 30 2018

When to Pull the Trigger


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted May 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I am just a little guy who invests in mutual funds and a few stocks. Ever since I started reading your blog, I have felt a sense of comfort in knowing that eventually, everything will work out because all this has happened before. It is also nice not to feel like I am swinging blindly. Thank you for the peace of mind you have given me.
For a guy like me, is there a date that I should pull all my money out of the US stock market and invest in a mutual fund that is specific to China and the far east?

Or is it not that simple?

KB

ANSWER: Not yet. We have to first get through this readjustment through the Monetary Crisis Cycle. China will rise, but it is just not quite ready for prime time. Just stay away from bonds right now. Interest rates can soar faster than anyone can imagine. We see Italian rates rise from 0.3% to 2.5% in a single day. I have tried very hard to explain that sometimes it is the private sector in trouble, and at other times, the crisis is in government. You have the dollar soaring. So be mindful that the US stock market has not broken out in US dollars and the consolidation for the first half is not yet finished. Of course, if you are not US$ based, chances are you are now watching the US share market make new record highs.

May 30 2018

The Rise in US Share Market in Foreign Currencies


Armstrong Economics Blog/S&P 500

Re-Posted May 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

COMMENT: I spoke this “pretend” analyst who use to be a goldbug and is now a cryptobug. Boy does he hate you. I really had to laugh for he said your computer is a fraud and your forecast on the euro was only correct because you organized it with central banks. I asked him who write more than 500 reports on every market around the world each and every day? He said you did with staff. I asked him, how many people would it take to do that? He had no answer.

I probably would have lost an equal amount in BitCoin buying it at the high based on his emails. Thank you for opening my eyes to see everything globally. It really has helped.

GHH

 

REPLY: I know. I use to get real hate mail from the goldbugs. Not it is the crypto people. Here is the S&P500 express in various currencies. You will note that the market is consolidating in US$ terms, but it is starting to breakout and make all time new highs in various currencies. This is what I mean that each and every one of us will act according to our own self-interest. That is Smith’s invisible hand.

I promised I would not leave anyone behind. Nevertheless, we do not do ANY advertising and prefer to keep the individual readership small. Our bread & butter is institutions. They, on the other hand, prefer no interviews with mainstream media and to shun advertising, It is a difficult road to following through the raindrops.